Feb 252020
 February 25, 2020  Posted by at 10:45 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Andreas Feininger Production B-17 heavy bomber at Boeing plant, Seattle Dec 1942


The Fall of Wuhan (Ben Hunt)
40-70% Of People Will Be Infected With COVID19 – Epidemiologist (Atl.)
Xi Jinping Rings Alarm On Economy As China Shifts Priority To Growth (SCMP)
Confusion In Wuhan As Move To Ease Coronavirus Lockdown Is Reversed (SCMP)
How Iran’s Death Toll Came To Be The Highest Behind Only China (SCMP)
China Overestimating Economic Recovery By Leaving Out Small Businesses (SCMP)
South Korea To Test 200,000 Sect Members As Pandemic Fears Hit Markets (G.)
Virus Spreads Despite Best Efforts Of Top Healthcare Systems (Fox)
Closures Reveal Vast Scale Of China’s Secretive Wildlife Farm Industry (G.)
Why Didn’t We See That Coming? (Kunstler)
Airline Stocks Tumble As Coronavirus Spreads Outside Of China (CNBC)
Weinstein To Face 8 More Allegations After New York Verdict (G.)
US Proposals To Whitewash Idlib Terrorists Unacceptable – Lavrov (RT)
Julian Assange ‘Suicide Risk’ If Extradited From UK To US – Lawyer (SCMP)
Assange Fight Draws In Trump’s New Intel Chief (Pol.)
Julian Assange ‘At High Risk Of Suicide’ If Extradited To US -Lawyer (Ind.)



Now that the MSM is slowly and finally waking up to the reality of the virus, the information to read and post and comment on, becomes overwhelming. Last week I twice took out the virus-related info to include in separate articles (Virus Rattles if you will), but today I need the extra time doing that involves, for other things.

Still, one observation: yesterday, we saw the highest daily death toll of the entire crisis. Today, we see the lowest. As Xi is pushing hard for the economy. Credibility remains a major issue.


Cases 80,328 (+ 621 from yesterday’s 79,707).

Deaths 2,707 (+ 81 from yesterday’s 2,626)


From SCMP:





From Worldometer:



Ben Hunt keeps his eyes on the ball:

“..build dedicated treatment wards before they’re required..”

“..protect healthcare professionals before they get sick..”

“..update our testing and diagnostic capabilities before they are swamped..”

“..bolster our healthcare systems BEFORE the need overwhelms the capacity..”

The Fall of Wuhan (Ben Hunt)

Last week I wrote about the corrupt political response of the World Health Organization to COVID-19. This week I’m writing about the corrupt political response of the United States to COVID-19. Because it’s happened before. In August 2005, the city of New Orleans fell. New Orleans did not fall because of Hurricane Katrina. New Orleans fell because of the corrupt political response to Hurricane Katrina. “We can stabilize the situation. Again, I want to thank you all. Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job!” – President George W. Bush. In January 2020, the city of Wuhan fell. Wuhan did not fall because of COVID-19. Wuhan fell because of the corrupt political response to COVID-19.

“Wuhan is a heroic city, and people of Hubei and Wuhan are heroic people who have never been crushed by any difficulty and danger in history. All regions and departments performed their duties actively and conscientiously.” – Xi the Commander (no, I am not making this up; this is how the Xinhua news service describes him now … “Xi the Commander”) A corrupt political response is always the same. It never changes in form. It never changes in function. A corrupt political response occurs when a political leader sacrifices national interest for regime or bureaucratic interest … when a constructed narrative of “Yay, Calm and Competent Control!” is maintained for the political benefit of the Leader at the expense of the Led.

Oh, the Leader and his flunkies will convince themselves that the narrative “is in the public interest” … that the narrative will “buy them time” … that the narrative is necessary because “the other side” would do the same or worse if given half a chance. It’s all the excuses that all the Renfields to all the professional politicians tell themselves as they slowly sell their souls. It’s what every President and every Director-General and every Senator and every CEO eventually comes to believe, that their personal interests are identical to “their” people’s interests.

[..] Every once in a very great while, an honest-to-god crisis reveals the political self-interest and mendacity behind your carefully constructed narrative of “Yay, Calm and Competent Control!” . Like the fall of New Orleans revealed George W. Bush. Like the fall of Wuhan revealed Xi Jinping. What we must prevent today is the NEXT city to fall. We must prevent the fall of Daegu. We must prevent the fall of Qom. We must prevent the fall of Milan. Looking ahead, we must prevent the fall of Yokohama. We must prevent the fall of San Francisco. Because containment has failed. What we’re seeing in South Korea, Iran and Italy is what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world data is spiky. Real world data is messy. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing … then cluster, cluster, cluster … then BOOM!

[..] Containment has failed. And so now we must fight. As individuals that means social distancing. As individuals that means doing what we can to stay healthy and prepare for a storm. As a nation that means a war-footing to build dedicated treatment wards before they’re required, to protect healthcare professionals before they get sick, to update our testing and diagnostic capabilities before they are swamped … to do everything possible to bolster our healthcare systems BEFORE the need overwhelms the capacity. Above all, that means calling out our leaders for their corrupt political responses to date, and forcing them through our outcry to adopt an effective virus-fighting policy for OUR benefit, not theirs. We got this.

Read more …

2nd-3rd scientist saying this. By then mortality rate will likely be 1% or so. But 1% of a huge number is a huge number in itself.

40-70% Of People Will Be Infected With COVID19 – Epidemiologist (Atl.)

The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.” [..] Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, around 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.” At this point, it is not even known how many people are infected. As of Sunday, there have been 35 confirmed cases in the U.S., according to the World Health Organization. But Lipsitch’s “very, very rough” estimate when we spoke a week ago (banking on “multiple assumptions piled on top of each other,” he said) was that 100 or 200 people in the U.S. were infected.

That’s all it would take to seed the disease widely. The rate of spread would depend on how contagious the disease is in milder cases. On Friday, Chinese scientists reported in the medical journal JAMA an apparent case of asymptomatic spread of the virus, from a patient with a normal chest CT scan. The researchers concluded with stolid understatement that if this finding is not a bizarre abnormality, “the prevention of COVID-19 infection would prove challenging.” Even if Lipsitch’s estimates were off by orders of magnitude, they wouldn’t likely change the overall prognosis. “Two hundred cases of a flu-like illness during flu season—when you’re not testing for it—is very hard to detect,” Lipsitch said. “But it would be really good to know sooner rather than later whether that’s correct, or whether we’ve miscalculated something.

The only way to do that is by testing.” Originally, doctors in the U.S. were advised not to test people unless they had been to China or had contact with someone who had been diagnosed with the disease. Within the past two weeks, the CDC said it would start screening people in five U.S. cities, in an effort to give some idea of how many cases are actually out there. But tests are still not widely available. As of Friday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories said that only California, Nebraska, and Illinois had the capacity to test people for the virus.

Read more …

The sleight of hand used to argue for factories restarting: “Xi said that as many as 1,396 counties and districts, some 46% of the nation’s total, had not reported a single confirmed case of the coronavirus.”

Xi Jinping Rings Alarm On Economy As China Shifts Priority To Growth (SCMP)

President Xi Jinping has rung the alarm bell on China’s economic growth as worries mount over the coronavirus’ impact on the economy, unemployment and global supply chains. Speaking on Sunday, Xi made it clear that the priority for most of the country was to get the world’s second biggest economy up and running after extensive delays. “It is unavoidable that the novel coronavirus epidemic will have a considerable impact on the economy and society,” said Xi in a lengthy televised address that was watched by as many as 170,000 officials and published by state news agency Xinhua. But Xi, China’s most powerful leader in decades, added the country’s social and economic system “can’t be paused for a long”.

The edited version of Xi’s speech was published soon after it was delivered, reflecting the urgency of the guidelines. Containment measures including mandatory quarantine for workers, partial shutdowns of factories and transport restrictions have caused significant disruptions to the economy, which was already growing at record low levels before the virus outbreak. Xi said that as many as 1,396 counties and districts, some 46 per cent of the nation’s total, had not reported a single confirmed case of the coronavirus. These low-risk zones, along with areas with only a small number of infections, should “comprehensively restore production” and life as usual, he said. “Medium-risk” regions should resume production in an “orderly manner”, while the priority for hard-hit areas like Hubei, the province at the centre of the outbreak, was still containing the virus, he said.

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Comments about Wuhan from the video:

• 40 portable incinerators X 30 corpses/incinerator/day = 1,200 corpses/day
• 100 additional portable incinerators ordered
• In addition to 47 crematories running in full capacity
• Another 1MM incinerators on the way!

And people tell me I’m exaggerating!

Confusion In Wuhan As Move To Ease Coronavirus Lockdown Is Reversed (SCMP)

Just three hours after announcing that visitors trapped in Wuhan – the Chinese city at the heart of the coronavirus epidemic – could leave on Monday, authorities reversed the decision, saying it had been made without approval. The local government revoked the notice it said had been issued by a subordinate working group from the city’s disease control command centre without approval from their superiors. “The centre, headed by Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang, said the officials who had issued the order without authorisation had been reprimanded. “Wuhan resolutely adheres to the spirit of Chinese President Xi [Jinping] … strictly controls every exit from Wuhan and the management of personnel, in order to prevent the spread of the [coronavirus],” it said in a statement retracting the earlier notice.

Extreme lockdown measures have been in place in Wuhan – capital of Hubei and home to 11 million people – since January 23, with all residential areas quarantined and roads and transport links closed. The retracted order would have allowed non-residents who did not have symptoms of the virus and had not had contact with infected patients to leave the city. It had also said locals involved in disease control efforts or essential daily services such as utilities and the delivery of necessities, as well as those who needed specialist medical treatment outside Wuhan, could leave without permission.

[..] More than 75 per cent of deaths in China from the new coronavirus – which causes a disease known as Covid-19 – have been in Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have originated in December. [..] According to Taoran Notes, a social media account affiliated with the official Economic Daily newspaper, the earlier notice had been issued by one of Wuhan’s five deputy mayors without authorisation, but it did not name the official.

Read more …

600 “official” cases, 50 deaths. That rhymes with Worldometer’s 9% mortality rate. But sure, it could also mean a huge amount of undetected or unconfirmed cases.

How Iran’s Death Toll Came To Be The Highest Behind Only China (SCMP)

Iran has been thrust to the forefront of rising global concern about the spread of the novel coronavirus after reporting by far the most deaths of any country apart from China. Iranian health officials have confirmed 12 deaths from the Covid-19 disease among 61 cases in the country, while a parliamentarian representing the city at the centre of the outbreak in the country has claimed the death toll stands at 50. Either figure would dwarf death tolls in South Korea, Japan and Italy, until now the most severely-affected countries outside China…

After insisting as recently as last week that the country had no cases of the coronavirus, Iranian authorities on February 19 confirmed the deaths of two elderly people in the city of Qom, about 145km south of the capital Tehran, followed by more fatalities in subsequent days. On February 24, officials raised the death toll to 12, from eight the previous day – making the outbreak in Iran the deadliest outside China. Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani, a lawmaker for the city of Qom, said on the same day there had been in fact 50 deaths, claiming the government was late to announce the outbreak and his city was ill-equipped to deal with the public health emergency.

Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi disputed those claims in a press conference on state television, pledging to resign if the death toll was even one-quarter of the higher figure. [..] After officials earlier speculated about possible sources of the outbreak including Chinese workers and pilgrims from Pakistan, Iran’s health minister Saeed Namaki on Sunday said the contagion was believed to be linked to a merchant from Qom who regularly travelled between Iran and China. The Iranian, who died from the virus, had been using indirect flights to get around a ban on direct flights between the countries introduced at the end of January.

[..] The disproportionately high fatality rate in Iran’s official figures – with about one in five of those infected succumbing to the virus, compared to one in 50 in China – has been taken by some experts as a sign the true number of cases in the country is far higher than currently known. Assuming a fatality rate of about 2 per cent, the official death toll so far would translate into about 600 cases overall in Iran, about 10 times the current count.

Read more …

More sleight of hand. I’ve been saying for a long time that it’s sbout SMEs, not Apple suppliers. Small firms account for at least 80% of jobs.

China Overestimating Economic Recovery By Leaving Out Small Businesses (SCMP)

China’s economic recovery amid the coronavirus outbreak has likely been overstated as data only covers larger companies and excludes the vast majority of the smaller workshops and manufacturers. [..] On Monday, National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Cong Liang said that over 90 per cent of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang province, one of the country’s top manufacturing bases, had resumed operation. According to Cong, over 70 per cent of production in the manufacturing and export hubs of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Liaoning had also restarted. However, the official figures only cover larger firms, namely enterprises with capacities “above state designated sizes”, which are enterprises that have a minimum annual turnover of 20 million yuan (US$2.85 million), according to the government’s official definition.

China’s state statistics system normally only covers industrial enterprises with an annual turnover above this level as they accounted for around 90 per cent of the nation’s output in terms of value. In addition, the figures concerning firms that have resumed operation overlook the level of production within a specific factory, as the official data classes a factory that may have only resumed slightly more than half of its capacity as having resumed production. [..] The smaller firms, for example, are often unable to met virus prevention conditions set by local governments, including having enough facial masks for employees. A monthly survey of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China, conducted by Standard Chartered Bank for the period up to the start of last week, found that firms were on average operating at 42 per cent, while only 47 per cent of workers had returned on average.

Read more …

Please imagine how you would test 200,000 people. Do they really have that many test kits? Where do they buy them?

South Korea To Test 200,000 Sect Members As Pandemic Fears Hit Markets (G.)

South Korea has stepped up its “maximum measures” to contain the coronavirus with plans to test around 200,000 members of a secretive church believed to be at the centre of the country’s outbreak. Along with an emergency budget and a crackdown on the hoarding of face masks, the government in Seoul will test members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus after its founder agreed to provide authorities with the names of all its members in the country. It came as financial markets saw more heavy losses across Asia Pacific on Tuesday over fears the coronavirus was spreading more widely from China and will cause disruption in countries such as South Korea, the world’s 12th biggest economy.

The Nikkei in Tokyo was down 3.3% while the Shanghai Composite sank 2%. Stocks in Australia fell 1.6% and Hong Kong was also in the red although futures trading pointed to a recovery later in the day in European and US markets. In Japan, a fourth person from the Diamond Princess cruise ship died and the country’s education minister said schools with reported coronavirus cases should be temporarily closed. Koichi Hagiuda told reporters on Tuesday that education boards of Hokkaido in northern Japan and Chiba City near Tokyo have been told to take this preventive measure, NHK says.

In China, where 71 new deaths and 508 new cases were reported on Tuesday, health officials said strict control and prevention measures would remain in place in Hubei province, the epicentre of the global outbreak. The national health commission added it would also strictly control the outbound movement of people in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province with existing traffic controls. At Tianjin University, near Beijing, scientists said they had developed an oral vaccine for Covid-19. The professor who led the project, Huang Jinhai, said the vaccine could also serve as a potential therapy for infected patients. Chinese state media said the university was looking for partners to run clinical trials.

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” South Korea has a fantastic health care system. They tested over 20,000 people and ended up with over 800 positive cases. That’s showing that this is a highly contagious virus..”

Virus Spreads Despite Best Efforts Of Top Healthcare Systems (Fox)

Fears of a global pandemic continue to grow as coronavirus cases spike in several countries, including Italy, South Korea and Iran, as the U.S. stock market nosedived early Monday. A staggering 50 people died in the Iranian city of Qom from the new coronavirus in the month of February, Iran’s semiofficial ILNA news agency reported on Monday. The new death toll is significantly higher than the latest number of confirmed cases that Iranian officials had reported just a few hours earlier, which stood at just 12 deaths out of 47 cases, according to state TV. The 50 deaths date back as far as Feb. 13, according to an Iranian official. Iran previously reported its cases and deaths from the virus on Feb. 19.

Authorities are struggling to contain and understand the outbreak in those countries, where infected cases have skyrocketed as they have increased over 2,000 percent in the past couple of weeks. Italy is considered the site of Europe’s first major outbreak and the largest outside of Asia. The number of infected cases jumped to 152, compared to just three 10 days ago. Siegel told anchor Ed Henry that it’s even “more concerning” to hear there are more than 800 cases reported in South Korea. “I’ve been saying that it’s all about health care infrastructure, that China doesn’t have it, we have it, other Western countries have it. Well, guess what, South Korea has a fantastic health care system. They tested over 20,000 people and ended up with over 800 positive cases. That’s showing that this is a highly contagious virus that is spreading despite the best efforts of top health systems to contain it,” he said.

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China is also the main market for many endangered species from elsewhere in the world. Can we please stop that too? Just boycott the country for allowing rhino, tiger and elephant body parts trade. Full boycott. Here’s our chance..

Closures Reveal Vast Scale Of China’s Secretive Wildlife Farm Industry (G.)

Nearly 20,000 wildlife farmsraising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry. Until a few weeks ago wildlife farming was still being promoted by government agencies as an easy way for rural Chinese people to get rich. But the Covid-19 outbreak, which has now led to over 1,800 deaths and more than 72,000 known infections, is thought to have originated in wildlife sold at a market in Wuhan in early December, prompting a massive rethink by authorities on how to manage the trade. China issued a temporary ban on wildlife trade to curb the spread of the virus at the end of January and began a widespread crackdown on breeding facilities in early February.

The country’s top legislative officials are now rushing to amend the country’s wildlife protection law and possibly restructure regulations on the use of wildlife for food and traditional Chinese medicine. The current version of the law is seen as problematic by wildlife conservation groups because it focuses on utilisation of wildlife rather than its protection. “The coronavirus epidemic is swiftly pushing China to reevaluate its relationship with wildlife,” Steve Blake, chief representative of WildAid in Beijing, told the Guardian. “There is a high level of risk from this scale of breeding operations both to human health and to the impacts on populations of these animals in the wild.” Further instructions from the National People’s Congress are expected next week to give authorities more tools to enforce the ban and restrict trade until the law is amended.

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“The China boom was a lot like the shale oil “miracle.” They were both great stunts. They produced a lot of stuff by borrowing from the future. Now we have all that stuff and we have to maintain it, keep if running, borrow more money to make that happen… and suddenly, that’s no longer plausible. ”

Why Didn’t We See That Coming? (Kunstler)

And now the Corona virus steps onstage to ramify that situation, beginning with a virtual shut-down of the excessively complex, over-engineered, just-in-time global economy. Things are not being produced and supply lines are shutting down. Car-makers outside China have a couple of weeks before their production lines halt for a lack of parts. But, of course, every other industry will have similar problems and stoppages. Many working Americans are barely getting by from one paycheck to the next. How many missed paychecks will it take for genuine hunger to kick in and desperation with it? We don’t know because the US news media has been busy conjuring the many loves of Vlad Putin.

This is getting serious now. Some of you may have noticed this morning that the stock indexes are heading into the worst open in years. Today, Mr. Market woke up, like Rip Van Winkle, and discovered that the world changed while he was sleeping. There’s a fair chance that the conditions of daily life in America will deteriorate sharply in the months ahead. We’ve been remote-viewing the empty streets of Wuhan and other Chinese cities since January, thinking it was like one of our cable-network horror shows. It’s not inconceivable that an American City, or more than one, will be subject to quarantine, or that a whole lot of people just won’t leave their houses for a period of time. Will the truckers still truck things that people need? We don’t know. How do you hold a political convention in a situation like that, or even an election?

The situation in China may be too far gone already. The country’s finances were a gigantic game of pretend. In the old Soviet Union, beloved by Bernie, the joke was, “they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work” — not a great formula for enduring prosperity. In China, the updated joke was “we pretend to make loans, and you pretend to pay them back.” The China boom was a lot like the shale oil “miracle.” They were both great stunts. They produced a lot of stuff by borrowing from the future. Now we have all that stuff and we have to maintain it, keep if running, borrow more money to make that happen… and suddenly, that’s no longer plausible. The entire industrialized world has fallen for the debt stunt. Observers have been waiting to see what would finally provoke the unwinding of massive false promises. Looks like the wait is over.

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Gee, what a surprise.

Airline Stocks Tumble As Coronavirus Spreads Outside Of China (CNBC)

Airline stocks fell Monday as fears about the spread of the coronavirus beyond China added to worries about travel demand and the broader economy, despite a drop in fuel prices. American Airlines shares led the S&P 500 lower with an 9.8% slide in midday trading, hitting a more than four-month low. Delta Air Lines’ stock lost 7.2% to the lowest price in nearly four months, while United Airlines was off 4.3%. All U.S. airline stocks were down more sharply than the broader market. The S&P 500 fell 2.6%. Close to 80,000 cases of the virus, now known as COVID-19, have been reported along with at least 2,621 deaths. Cases outside of China, where most of the infections are located, have increased, with Italy reporting more than 220 and South Korea confirming more than 830.

Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade warned citizens not to travel to affected areas, helping drive down shares of European carriers. Budget airline easyJet lost more than 16% while rival Ryanair was down 12%. Deutsche Lufthansa fell 8.8%, British Airways’ parent, International Consolidated Airlines Group, was off 9% and Air France-KLM fell 8.4%. More than 200,000 flights to, from and within China have already been canceled because of the virus, according to aviation consulting firm Cirium, and more disruptions are possible if the virus continues to spread. The coronavirus is expected to eat into carriers’ revenue this year. Air travel demand globally is set to fall for the first time since 2009 and cost airlines some $29 billion — mostly in the Asia-Pacific region — in revenue, the International Air Transport Association warned last week.

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Weinstein still has plenty money to pay for whoever he wants. They couldn’t get him on the most serious charges. Just throw away the key.

Weinstein To Face 8 More Allegations After New York Verdict (G.)

The verdict in the New York case against Harvey Weinstein is only the beginning of the movie mogul’s prosecution, with separate charges against the disgraced producer ahead in Los Angeles. In the most high-profile trial of the #MeToo movement yet, a New York jury on Monday found Weinstein guilty of third-degree rape for an attack in a New York hotel and guilty of a criminal sex act for forcing oral sex on a former television production assistant. The fallen titan of Hollywood, who was taken away in handcuffs, could face 25 years in prison and will have to register as a sex offender. Next, Weinstein is due to face a criminal case in LA, which stems from investigations by law enforcement in southern California into eight allegations.

LA prosecutors have filed charges for two incidents that allegedly occurred within a two-day period. Those charges include forcible rape, forcible oral copulation, sexual penetration by use of force and sexual battery by restraint, carrying a potential 28-year prison sentence. It’s not yet clear how LA prosecutors plan to proceed following Monday’s verdict in New York. Weinstein could be immediately brought to California after his 11 March sentencing in New York. He could pursue a plea deal in LA after his guilty verdict in Manhattan, or he could end up facing a second trial, said Laurie Levenson, criminal law professor at Loyola Law School. Either way, it’s an uphill battle for the former movie producer, she said: “When he heads to LA, he’s already a convicted rapist.”

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Putin is about to hand Erdogan an ultimatum or two. The US must go home.

US Proposals To Whitewash Idlib Terrorists Unacceptable – Lavrov (RT)

Moscow will resist any attempts to whitewash the terrorists holed up in Idlib, Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, adding that engaging in talks with them as the US is hinting is out of question. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Al-Qaeda offshoot previously known as Al-Nusra, which controls Idlib, has been designated as a terrorist organization not only by the UN, but by the US itself, Lavrov said. However, officials in Washington, including the special envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, “allow themselves statements, from which a conclusion can be made that ‘it’s not such a terrorist organization anymore’ and that dialogue with it can be established under some circumstances,” he said. “It’s not the first time we hear such hints and we consider them absolutely unacceptable.”

The foreign minister also said that another round of consultations between Russia and Turkey is currently being prepared in ordered “to agree on ways of turning Idlib into a real de-escalation where the terrorists aren’t in charge.” Tensions are high between Moscow and Ankara after Turkey sent troops to Idlib a few weeks ago amid a large-scale offensive by the Syrian military on the last terrorist stronghold in the country. The move provoked clashes between the Turkish and Syrian forces, with casualties on both sides. Ankara is demanding that Moscow pressure Damascus into ceasing its operation, while Russia has told Turkey that its promise to separate the ‘moderate opposition’ from the terrorists still remains unfulfilled.Lavrov insisted that it was no surprise for the Turkish military that the terrorists were being targeted. Earlier Russian-Turkish agreements on Idlib never envisaged that strikes against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham would stop, he added.

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“Edward Fitzgerald QC: Mental state of Assange deteriorating such that there is possibility he may not be able to participate in his own trial. Defense outlines why they believe it’s unjust an oppressive to pursue trial so long after alleged offenses..”

“Julian Assange faces life in prison for publishing true information that was in the public interest..if truth becomes treason we are all in trouble.”

Still, making it all against Trump doesn’t seem the wisest move. Try US Intel. Obviously, Trump’s role is terrible as well, but Assange went into the Embassy in 2012. Trump became president in 2017.

Julian Assange ‘Suicide Risk’ If Extradited From UK To US – Lawyer (SCMP)

Julian Assange should not be extradited to the United States as he would not get a fair trial and would be a suicide risk, his lawyer told a British court hearing on Monday. Assange’s lawyer, Edward Fitzgerald, said extradition would expose Assange to inhumane and degrading treatment by a disproportionate sentence and prison conditions. Fitzgerald said the extradition request was motivated by politics rather than any genuine crimes. He said it would be unjust and oppressive to extradite him because of his mental state and risk of suicide. He said the US attitude to Assange had changed when Donald Trump came to power and that the US president wanted to make an example of his client.

Fitzgerald said in 2013 the US government under former President Barack Obama had decided that Assange should not face any action. But that in 2017, after the 2016 election of Trump, an indictment was brought against Assange. Why the change? “The answer is President Trump came into power with a new approach to freedom of speech and a new hostility to the press amounting effectively to declaring war on investigative journalists,” Fitzgerald said. The indictment was brought, “not on the basis of new revelations, but because it had become politically expedient and desirable,” Fitzgerald said.

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The background Assange’s lawyers will provide. They promise big surprises.

Assange Fight Draws In Trump’s New Intel Chief (Pol.)

Attorneys for Julian Assange [..] plan to introduce evidence in the WikiLeaks founder’s extradition hearing involving President Donald Trump’s new intel chief Richard Grenell. Gareth Peirce, a lawyer representing Assange in his extradition proceedings in London, plans to argue this week that the process to try to extradite her client was abused from early on. Representatives for Assange’s defense team say they expect to introduce recordings and screenshots of communications of a close Grenell associate, including a secondhand claim that Grenell was acting on the president’s orders. Grenell’s sudden embroilment in Assange’s extradition fight comes at an inconvenient time, as Democrats and national security veterans criticize him as ill-suited and unqualified to be the acting director of national intelligence.

And it threatens to spotlight his close relationship with President Trump, feeding the widespread perception that the president is politicizing intelligence work for partisan ends. At the heart of the Assange team’s argument is an ABC News report from last April alleging that, while serving as Trump’s ambassador to Germany, Grenell told Assange’s Ecuadorean hosts that the U.S. government would not pursue the death penalty for Assange if Ecuador allowed British officials to enter its embassy in London and arrest him. Assange’s legal team will claim that Grenell’s role was more extensive than previously known, and that it corrupted the extradition process early on. The suggestion will be that the U.S. was so desperate to get Assange in its custody that American officials, via Grenell, agreed in advance to take a particular sentence off the table before even allowing a trial and sentencing to play out.

The WikiLeaks founder’s attorneys are also expected to present evidence that they believe shows Trump explicitly tasked Grenell with making the offer, thereby politicizing the process. One of Assange’s lawyers, Edward Fitzgerald, hinted at this argument in his opening statement on Monday, when he said that Assange’s prosecution was “not motivated by genuine concerns for criminal justice but politics.” The evidence submitted this week will include new materials submitted to Assange’s legal team by political activist and journalist Cassandra Fairbanks, a staunch defender of Assange who has worked for the Russian state-run news site Sputnik and the far-right outlet Gateway Pundit. She is expected to be listed as a formal witness in the case.

Fairbanks recorded two phone calls she had with one of Grenell’s close associates, Arthur Schwartz, and took screenshots of their conversations about Assange and Grenell. [..] Schwartz appeared to grow frustrated and fearful after Fairbanks tweeted, on Sept. 10, 2019, that Grenell “was the one who worked out the deal for Julian Assange’s arrest.” “I don’t want to go to jail,” Schwartz told Fairbanks in a September 2019 phone call, accusing her of posting “classified information” in the tweet. Fairbanks posted the tweet around the time Grenell’s name was being floated to replace John Bolton as Trump’s national security adviser. “Please. I’m begging you,” Schwartz says in the recording. “They look at you, they see that we speak, that’s bad.”

Read more …

The US is trying to make this about the risk Assange has exposed sources to. But in 2013, even anti-Assange paper the Guardian said

The US counter-intelligence official who led the Pentagon’s review into the fallout from the WikiLeaks disclosures of state secrets told the Bradley Manning sentencing hearing on Wednesday that no instances were ever found of any individual killed by enemy forces as a result of having been named in the releases.

Not only did none of them die, they weren’t even hurt. It’s all a fable, coming from US intel hiding behind state secret veils. The actual story for at least some of the releases is more or less the opposite: that Assange spent entire sleepless nights redactingout namea and details in docs that sources like the Guardian wanted to publish in full.

Julian Assange ‘At High Risk Of Suicide’ If Extradited To US -Lawyer (Ind.)

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is at “high risk of suicide” if he is sent to the US to face claims he endangered the lives of whistleblowers around the world, a court has heard. At an extradition hearing in London, Assange’s lawyers argued he is the victim of a politically motivated prosecution that forms part of Donald Trump’s “war on investigative journalists”. But the US government claimed some sources had “disappeared” after the WikiLeaks founder put them at risk of “serious harm, torture or even death” by leaking classified information. James Lewis QC, opening the case against Assange, said on Monday that information published by WikiLeaks was useful to enemies of the US.Mr Lewis told Woolwich Crown Court, which is sitting as a magistrates’ court, that most of the charges related to “straightforward criminal activity” in a “conspiracy to steal from and hack into” the Department of Defence computer system.

“These are ordinary criminal charges and any person, journalist or source who hacks or attempts to gain unauthorised access to a secure system, or aids and abets others to do so, is guilty of computer misuse,” the barrister said. “Reporting or journalism is not an excuse for criminal activities or a licence to break ordinary criminal laws.” Mr Lewis said that the US identified hundreds of “at-risk and potentially at-risk people” around the world due to WikiLeaks’ actions and made efforts to warn them of the danger they faced. “The US is aware of sources, whose redacted names and other identifying information was contained in classified documents published by WikiLeaks, who subsequently disappeared, although the US can’t prove at this point that their disappearance was the result of being outed by WikiLeaks,” he added.

Read more …


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Home Forums Debt Rattle February 25 2020

Viewing 35 posts - 1 through 35 (of 35 total)
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    Andreas Feininger Production B-17 heavy bomber at Boeing plant, Seattle Dec 1942   • The Fall of Wuhan (Ben Hunt) • 40-70% Of People Will Be Infe
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle February 25 2020]


    if 40% of americans get covid19 and the mortality rate is 1% that’s ~8 million dead. it’s beginning to seem to me that many more americans will instead suffer from the secondary effects of the crisis. recovering from a wildfire in california or a tornado in the midwest will take much longer than usual when utility workers are quarantined and replacement parts are unavailable.

    it’s likely that parts of the country will lose electricity and water for an extended period. those who can will leave. those left behind who require medicine or medical care or food…..?

    if the cdc is not considering scenarios such as this then they are completely inept. they’re probably too busy arranging for ‘great job brownie’-style press releases and maxing out performance bonuses now that the money is flowing.

    this is the message the cdc needs to send:

    Containment has failed. And so now we must fight.

    unfortunately, i can’t imagine them saying anything even remotely like this until it’s way too late.


    It becomes impossible to keep track:

    COVID19 reported in Austria, Croatia. On Tenerife, Canary Islands, over 1,000 people staying in the same hotel have been quarantined in their rooms for at least 14 days because one guest, an Italian doctor from Lombardy, tested positive.

    Dr. D

    Unlike his father, there’s still time to arrest W. for New Orleans. If you deputize me, I’ll be happy to help.

    How on earth would only 40-70% get it? Is there a space station or prison island somewhere that’s incommunicado?

    So no one in America has Covid – even Hawaii. Because no one in America has been tested. Especially Hawaii: they have no testing kits. Explain please? Because to me it sounds like you WANT the planet covered in this and ye olde 800 million dead. …As they’ve written about as a benefit to especially to themselves and the planet at large – at the expense of the poor (i.e. YOU) of course — for 40 years.

    The other noteable thing: no one has accused the U.S. or even anyone else of setting off as a bioweapon. Even though it strikes all our enemies at a critical turn, suddenly including Iran who was nowhere near nothin’. …But we’re just lucky like that I guess. 100% of the time. Right after warning GM and Apple in the strongest possible terms to move their supply chain back home or else. Blaming us dirty imperialist American pig-dogs is just the go-to, the always-taken default, forever, divert-the-blame plan. And this is the one time only they DON’T use it? Why? Very strange.

    To be positive, look at Singapore, who has done everything right. They apparently can read words and ‘science’ and immediately a) stockpile critical goods like masks so their hospitals remain functional b) immediately define ‘proximity’ as +2m, c) trace each infection back to origin immediately and tirelessly, d) when identified, put the people under a real, not theatrical quarantine of the correct duration. Wow! So mystery! Amaze!

    Sadly, Canada is the complete opposite, having patients that have all the symptoms, CAT scanned lungs, who work with Asians from the area, and REFUSE to test, because, rules. Rules are, test only if YOU are directly from an affected area. So there! Be symptomatic all you want, sneeze up the hospital, walk around Vancouver coughing to your heart’s content but Medicare will EBD before they pay $50 to test you.

    Meanwhile in the States, Hawaii is proud to say they have no outbreaks, especially not on Maui, where a known infected man was. They know this because he flew back home asymptomatic…although we’ve known for two months the asymptomatic can contaminate…and they double-checked all this by a) finding no one and b) giving no tests. So how can there be any confirmed cases when we won’t test anyone? By definition: no outbreak! QED. Safe as houses. …And so on through the system, flying 90% likely contaminated back on the same plane as healthy people against orders, and Oops! Whaddya knows? My bad: they had it. And then kicking the known-infected out of a strict military base into a halfway house with open doors in a residential district of a town of 1M greater area. That’s just #AntiLogic! The only logic we knows here in Idiocracy. We’ll feed them Brawndo and give them Starbucks. Remember 8,000 ‘voluntary’ quarantines, except we have no list of names, no idea if they’re doing anything, and no one’s checking.

    And thus, on and on forever, until the good and logical people stand up and wrest control of the system back away from the lunatic zealots of #AntiLogos. Which, as they haven’t bothered in my lifetime, much less back when it was a lot easier, it’s going to be a long, long time, maybe a generation, and 800 million dead would be an optimistic number. First to go will be me and Chris Martenson no doubt, for correctly pointing out #Truth that if you act like an idiot you’re going to kill everyone, it’s voluntary, unnecessary, and dumb. Because we WANT 800 million dead. I’ve been reading about how awesome that is most of my life but at least all year from every corner, especially from international heroes like Gates and St. Greta. Why WOULD you stop? Help it. #Resist by flying in as many cruise ships and Chinese students and keeping the borders as open as possible. Erase ICE if you can! If anyone tries not to die, call them a racist. Because as we know the laws of physics depend on your skin color and change from place to place.

    Meanwhile, 40 + 47 = 87 incinerators running, ballpark 2,610/day x 60 days = 156,600 numbers that don’t care about your feelings. But you can die for your antiscience religion and political correct cause if you wish. And they are. And no one’s at all mad, any interest in changing behavior, so who am I to say? Isn’t this like the Moorlocks or Star Trek where they jump into the incinerators on command for a virtual war?

    Speaking of theatre and voluntary, “Weinstein to Face 8 More Allegations after New York Verdict (G.)” the NY D.A. who took money from Weinstein and didn’t prosecute him for 20 years is suddenly all into this verdict. Yeah! That’ll larn him. Right behind him is the L.A. prosecutor who did the very same thing. …And somehow nobody else in all of Hollywood, ever did this, ever. It’s almost like it’s all a big puppet show.

    US Proposals to Whitewash Idlib Terrorists Unacceptable – Lavrov (RT)”

    Another day, another day Trump hasn’t stopped the war and moved the troops home. Another day Congress hasn’t removed his (illegal) power to do so, nor impeached him for it. It’s almost like it’s all a big….oh wait I said that already.

    “Julian Assange faces life in prison for publishing true information that was in the public interest…if truth becomes treason we are all in trouble.”

    IF? That’s like IF we have a pandemic. Where have you been? It’s been like that all my life. It’s almost like there’s no principle, no law, and it’s all one big…illusion? show? joke? con?

    These are not serious people. They will die of it and take you with them.

    Dr. D

    Hey L.A. prosecutor, Cory Feldman on the phone to talk to you about how very, very much you care. He’s been on national T.V. trying to get your attention for child rapes after his best friend committed suicide over it. …Hello? Hello?

    I’m sure after 30 years, he’s the ONLY one.

    Dave Note

    Ben Hunt’s advice about the corrupt political response to COVID-19.

    “As a nation that means a war-footing to build dedicated treatment wards before they’re required, to protect healthcare professionals before they get sick, to update our testing and diagnostic capabilities before they are swamped … to do everything possible to bolster our healthcare systems BEFORE the need overwhelms the capacity….”

    There’s a joke circulating aimed it the current younger generation that asks:

    “Do you know why the younger generation calls the obsessive habit of photo chronicling ‘Selfies’…

    Because Narcissisties is too hard to spell.”

    I’m not holding my breath for any self sacrifice from the U.S. population for anything, especially the young.

    Their response to dealing with the fantastically grim reality of COVID-19 will be, “Isn’t there an App for that???”

    My parents were from the WWII generation. My father survived the fighting on Okinawa and utter horror show on Iwo Jima. He never spoke about it until he was a very old man in his late 80’s and it still made him weep.

    I read a fictional satire recently of the young Woke hipster Gen we have now being in the landing craft about to hit Omaha beach during the Normandy Invasion.

    They just couldn’t get it together because their quad long shot grande in a venti cup half calf double cupped no sleeve salted caramel mocha latte with 2 pumps of vanilla substitute 2 pumps of white chocolate mocha for mocha and substitute 2 pumps of hazelnut for toffee nut half whole milk and half breve with no whipped cream extra hot extra foam extra caramel drizzle extra salt add a scoop of vanilla bean powder with light ice well stirred. …wasn’t hot enough!

    And they were feeling “Triggered” by all the less than micro aggression that awaited them on the beach up ahead.

    Are you filled with confidence about the current generation tackling COVID-19?

    “Oh the Humanity!” kinda rings flat nowadays doesn’t it?




    I hear ya Dave Note. It is incredible how in just a couple generations an incredible amount of knowledge and capacity is gone.
    This will not serve anyone well given a hugely fragile economic system in which everyone is just a tiny cog and no one knows how to build things from scratch, nor do we have the means equipment wise. Sad for all that we got sold this stupid financial bill of goods that made us all so vulnerable.


    Actually, the current generation WILL handle the virus because it will be the survivors who have no choice but to carry on. They will become freakishly tough, those survivors, and write a line of history we’ll never know. The Greatesdt generation wasn’t alol that tough and the Wokesters aren’t all that weak.

    The Greatest Gen (my parents) were colossal chumps who fell for a global swindle called WWII. The Wokesters are colossal chumps who fall for Save the Planet globalism. Hardly anyone from either generation met an “app” (same lexical root as ‘appliance’) they wouldn’t sdell their autonomy for.

    As for the virus, it will do us about as bad the Spanish Flu did the parents and grandparents of the so-called greatest Generation. Both cultures were based on ever greater close-quartered integration of growing populations. Both were/are recipes for infectious epidemic disaster.

    Whether they croak clutching a can of 1959 Schlitz or some New Age-named caffeine confection, hardly matters. Both generations were total chumps. Like us. We’re watching the tsunami approach our homes, and we don’t have highlands to retreat to.


    Hi Ilargi – long time.
    If I’m here then it really must be a SHTF moment.

    Covid-19 of course.

    Dr. D
    On that Canada thing – I’m not sure of the validity of that example cited by Martenson but the Canadian response has at times been pretty frustrating especially at the federal level.

    Even so (and here’s the shocker) in their own bureaucratic and politically correct manner the provinces seem to have actually been on the job more or less.

    As of Monday when the CDC listed 426 as the total tested in the USA Ontario alone had completed testing on 540 people and British Columbia had completed testing 677!!!!

    How does that make sense? The CDC has been pretty aggressive with travel bans etc. but what is going on inside the USA??? I don’t know what to make of this.

    On Feb. 20 Imperial College estimated that 2/3’s of all cases exported from Wuhan were undetected.
    But how can you find them if you don’t test? South Korea, Italy and Iran (who knows how bad things really are there) show what can happen. With a long incubation period and virus spreading with light or even no symptoms this thing can be undetected until boom it’s a total mess.

    Singapore and Hong Kong(even with it’s political problems) show that it might be possible to keep things somewhat under control but it takes a level of competence, dedication, and clear thinking that seems to be lacking in most places.


    TAE is unique in the blog sphere. The insightful comments make TAE special

    The virus is more than a health problem.
    Its greatest impact is and will be on the social/economic system.
    We have front row seats at TAE.
    We often make comments before the “experts” even get out of bed and start “parroting us”.

    Update (1100ET): WHO’s Bruce Aylward told journalists that China’s actions “prevented hundreds of thousands of cases” and warned that the rest of the world “is not ready for the virus to spread,” adding that “countries should instruct citizens now on hygiene.”

    Unsurprisingly, the Dems were quick to slam the White House’s $2.5 billion spending plan that was sent lawmakers on Monday to address the deadly coronavirus outbreak. Democrats said the request fell far short of what’s needed.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the president’s request “long overdue and completely inadequate to the scale of this emergency” in a statement released Monday. She added that the House would propose a “strong, strategic” funding package of its own to address the public health crisis.

    Because nothing solves a public health crisis like a political stalemate.
    Trump joked in public remarks Tuesday that if he had authorized more, Chuck Schumer and the rest would be criticizing him, saying “it should be less.”

    You all have heard me saying, ” Its doesn’t matter what I think or say, I’m not a decision maker, influencer, or enabler.”

    Does knowing the truth or being “truth seekers” change anything, outside of our bubble?

    Just because I think that coronavirus-linked deaths will replace the ordinary “cold flu” deaths, does not change the future. I cannot change what the flue is going to do. You might think differently. I don’t mind.

    If I think that the coronavirus is going to make the USA military go into lock down in the middle east, or Japan, (like they did in South Korea), only means that I think that the military cannot win a fight with cough and spittle.
    Soon, a lot of moms will not let their sons join the military.
    Soon, there will too many soldiers and veterans in the USA.
    (It happened after WWII. The USA is not prepared for having all those young military people being home.)

    One senior advisor who spoke with WaPo put it the starkest of terms: We can’t stop it, so the best we can do is keep the body count as low as possible.

    “We shouldn’t have illusions,” said Shigeru Omi, a senior government adviser. “We can’t stop this, but we can try to reduce the speed of expansion and reduce mortality.”

    In keeping with this maxim, hospital space will be reserved for patients with the most serious symptoms, while those with simple colds and fevers have been asked to rest at home. They’re only to contact health authorities if a fever persists for four days. Or two for the elderly, people with chronic diseases or pregnant women .
    Companies have been asked to promote “flexible” work schedules to lessen daytime crowds aboard Tokyo’s mass transit.

    Citizens have also been advised to “limit” face-to-face conversations, avoid crowds and drinking sessions, and wash their hands if they touch straps while commuting on the train. Though the government didn’t explicitly “ban” large events, it asked organizers to consider whether their event was really that necessary.

    The new policy does little to clear up the uncertainty surrounding the Tokyo Olympics. But we suspect Japan will wait another month or two before it starts seriously considering what’s next.


    Dr. D.:. Last night I read an interview by Canadian Federal health officials.

    Clearly they have thrown in the towel on containing the coronavirus in Canada! That battle is already lost!

    Clearly they are encouraging people to self quarantine so they don’t have to admit they have no test kits!

    Clearly they have no intention of shutting down air travel either!

    The virus is coming from all over the world now, so what is the point of even trying to screen?

    I think the CDC is saying exactly the same thing!

    Someone should tell President Trump that the US government is deliberately trying to let the virus reach and spread in the US! They are openingly going behind his back to accomplish this! They plan on blaming him for the coming virus out break!

    His opponents see this as a golden opportunity to finally rid themselves of him! They don’t care if a few 10s of millions of Americans need to die!

    It is all about restoring their corrupt $5.8 million per year kickbacks from the US Chamber of Commerce that they are no longer getting since Trump was elected!

    One of the reasons I am so suspicious of Trudope and Canadian health officials is that Trudope coordinates and co-operates very closely with members of Congress, especially the house speaker, Nancy! Canada still has not ratified the trade agreement yet, waiting on instructions from Nancy! Trudope would very dearly like Trump gone!



    Update (1145ET): US CDC says COVID-19 epidemic is rapidly evolving and expanding, warning that a vaccine could be ready in a year, and Americans should prepare for possible spreads in communities.Additionally, HHS Secretary Alex Azar says at Senate panel hearing that the U.S. doesn’t have enough stockpiles of masks and ventilators to fight the coronavirus and that’s one reason the Trump administration is seeking $2.5b in funding.

    About 30m so-called N95 respirator masks are stockpiled but as many as 300m are needed for healthcare workers, Azar says, adding that his department doesn’t yet know how much they would cost.

    Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, who questioned the administration’s readiness to battle the spread of the virus:

    “I’m deeply concerned we’re way behind the eight ball on this,” Murray said while questioning Azar at the Appropriations subcmte hearing.

    Azar also says the money would be used to help develop vaccines and treatments for the virus and that a vaccine could be ready in a year.

    * * *


    Dave Note:. I see you have also noted the shift in attitudes of public health officials saying the containment battle has been lost!

    In Canada, Ottawa health officials have clearly given up! They don’t want to admit they are not prepared nor have any test kits available. They are recommending people just self quarantine themselves!

    I see California has over 8,000 people supposedly self quarantining themselves! Again nobody is being tested! Again no stoppage of international airline flights just like Canada!

    I saw that Iran’s deputy health minister has the virus! Iran traced their out break to an Iranian merchant evading direct travel restrictions by travelling via 3rd countries to China and back. He died, so they can’t shoot him!


    Zerosum:. Yes, clearly the US government is not prepared! But at least they are finally talking about it as Rome burns! Nothing for the short term. Hog wash delusional crap years from now after everyone is dead!

    Looks like Congress has finally found a way to rid themselves of Trump! Never let a good crisis go to waste – former Obama official & major of Chicago!

    In Canada, the government is not not even talking about it yet! That means they are even less prepared! Canadian health officials threw in the towel yesterday! They have already given up! Everybody to self quarantine themselves!


    A scan of Canadian news this morning, shows that Trudope still can’t get a handle on natives blockading railways!

    Not a word about the virus!

    Trudope still worried about bribing 3rd world dictators to get a UN security seat!

    Doc Robinson

    CDC expects ‘community spread’ of coronavirus [in US], as top official warns disruptions could be ‘severe’

    …The CDC’s messaging seemed to be at odds with the position of the World Health Organization, which reiterated Tuesday that countries could stop transmission chains if they acted swiftly and aggressively.



    I don’t have a care or worry in the world just because the DOW is again losing another 1,000 points.
    I’m not part of the 10% of the population that is gambling in the stock market


    My guess is that most countries will lift their quarantines soon since the disease is so contagious. Markets will rebound as supply lines are reestablished.
    People in the west are scared and fascinated because it has been a long time since there has been a plague here, First half of the 20th century was plague ridden! The Spanish flu gets more press today than ever.
    Ever wonder how many people in the North America died of the flu today, yesterday, the day before? A lot.
    I imagine this virus is not being talked about in some sub Saharan African countries that have been battling AIDS for decades and Malaria for millennia.
    Funny how a lot of anti vaxers are screaming for a vaccine for corona virus but refuse to allow there children to be vaccinated against the scourges of a century ago. Must be something to do with that 4th turning.


    For all the math challenged…
    1% of a billion is 10 million
    1% of the world’s population is 77 million
    1% of the 40% of the US population that might get the virus is 1.3 million
    not to take anything away from the seriousness or the death potential of this virus but exaggerating the numbers doesn’t help one bit.


    We often make comments before the “experts” even get out of bed and start “parroting us”.
    The advise by CDC etc. is
    Stay home,


    What do you think? Its about losing money
    The bonds were issued to support the World Bank’s PEF, and would only be triggered if certain criteria of a pandemic were met. If triggered, the bondholders would lose their money, the funds would be transferred to developing countries to fight the virus. To date, the bonds have yet to be triggered, as it’s increasingly becoming obvious that the WHO may stall calling Covid-19 outbreak a “pandemic” until after the bonds mature in July.

    Dave Note

    100% of 100 million people = 100 million

    1% fatality of 100 million people = 1 million

    1% fatality of the U.S. population of 330 million = 3.3 million

    This would happen in months, not years.

    This 1% assumes your medical facilities are not overwhelmed, then the fatality rate would shoot up.

    3% fatality of 100 million people = 3 million

    3% fatality of 330 million people = 9.9 million

    The U.S. lost about 400,000 military killed in action during WWII

    The Soviet Union lost about 10,000,000 military killed in action during WWII

    The U.S. loss from a 3% Covid-19 death rate is roughly what the Russian military lost fighting Nazi Germany for 5 years, but this would happen in several months.

    Just to put things in perspective.

    WWII fraction of population killed by country

    Dave Note

    So how do you think the U.S. sickcare system will fare in this Covid-19 Clusterfuck.

    This is the same system sickcare system that has produced a Diminishing life expectancy despite charging $11,000 per capita. It’s below 80 years, and has been dropping for the last three years.

    Healthcare per capita vs life expectancy

    Your kid falls off the swing set on the playground, you go to the ER and the kid gets 5 stitches and the bill is $9,000.

    So how is a sickcare clown show like U.S. medicine going to do against the Plague?

    Think it might get overwhelmed?

    The approx 100,000 ICU beds, in TOTAL, for the U.S. are already full with, wait for it, ta-da…. Intensive Care Patients.

    Where you gonna put them so the Covid Crowd can get care?

    Math alert, 100,000 ICU beds against 5-15% of 330 million people possibly needing them.

    Let’s be kind and say only 40% of the 330 million = 132 million and only 10% of them need ICU care.

    10% of 132 million = 13.2 million ICU beds

    Hmm, Houston, we have a problem.

    Do you think the U.S. might be overwhelmed? Raise your hand!

    Who you gonna call, Ghost Busters?

    Hazmat Crew


    1% fatality of the U.S. population of 330 million = 3.3 million

    but, as chett pointed out, the 1% fatality rate would apply only to those infected. my 8 million estimate is obviously wrong.

    working with the lower bounds of 40% infected and 1% of those dying chett’s estimate of 1.3 million dead is accurate. given 70% infected and a 2% mortality rate one would expect 4.6 million dead.

    as you point out, hospital capacity is a key limiting factor. going with the 40% infection rate and figuring that 20% of those will require hospitalization gives us 26.4 million to be admitted. i’ve read that the total number of u.s. hospital beds is under one million.

    and i also stand corrected on the cdc, “Now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities, and schools to begin preparing to respond to coronavirus.” is far beyond anything i pictured them saying.

    Dave Note

    From what I’ve read so far 5% of the infected need ICU beds, not regular ward beds

    The majority of the one million beds can not provide ICU level care.

    1% of infected die, assuming the system isn’t overwhelmed and assuming a mutation doesn’t jack up the mortality rate 2,3,4%

    Dave Note

    I also am not confident about the estimate of 40% of the population being infected, I’d plan for the 70% range

    Dave Note

    So how about the US homeless population, half of which are in California?

    No one gives a crap about them now, what happens when they become an army of Typhoid Covid Marys.

    World War Z?

    Zombie Apocalypse?

    Round them all up and put them where exactly?

    Zerohedge headline just now:

    San Francisco Declares State Of Emergency Over Covid-19;

    Is that the same San Francisco with used needles and feces covering it’s streets?


    The American Dream!
    A nightmare
    Build the wall to keep the dreamers in Lalaland

    Dave Note

    Coronavirus Mortality percentage

    Seasonal flu death rate, 0.1%. Covid-19, using REPORTED data, is 3.4% and in an uptrend

    Dave Note

    Dave Note

    Dave Note

    70% infection rate of U.S. 330 million people = 231 million

    Mortality currently rate trending at 3.4% of 231 million = 7.8 million mortality


    save the soldiers

    Coronavirus live updates: US soldier based in South Korea tests positive
    Weizhen Tan
    10:11 am: US soldier stationed in South Korea tests positive
    A U.S. soldier stationed at Camp Carroll in South Korea has tested positive for the new coronavirus — marking the first time an American service member has been infected, according to the United States Forces Korea (USFK).

    Camp Carroll is around 22 km (13 miles) away from the South Korean city of Daegu, where a large number of infections in South Korea has been reported. The soldier also visited Camp Walker, which is around 4 km from Daegu.

    The 23-year-old soldier is currently in self-quarantine at his off-base residence, the USFK said. It added that contact tracing is currently underway. — Weizhen Tan and Christine Wang


    Watch for the attacks on USA soldiers
    Mapping Coronavirus In The Middle East: 9 Countries Hit As Alarm Raised Over Vulnerable Refugee Camps
    Notice also that the United Arab Emirates now has at least 13 confirmed cases, in a worrisome sign in could hit the gulf region hard, given also it’s a major international transport hub straddling east Asia and the West.
    Official government numbers of infected in the region are as follows:

    Bahrain (17 cases)
    Egypt (1 case)
    Iran (61 cases)
    Iraq (5 cases)
    Israel (2 cases)
    Kuwait (3 cases)
    Lebanon (1 case)
    Oman (4 cases)
    UAE (13 cases)

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