Alexander Ac
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Latest from deflationist Gary Shilling:
“The last meaningful episode of deflation was in the 1930s. That’s also the last time the U.S. was truly at peace. Deflation is a peacetime phenomenon.” HUH?
But read the whole piece…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/why-global-economies-face-an-age-of-deflation.html
Alex
Hello Ilargi,
thanks for insights – but I do not really think that stealing xx % from peoples accounts could set-up the break-up of the Eurozone.
That is too far-fetched, IMHO. That said, if it will cascade into similar actions in bigger nations, EU might break-up, but I think that will not happen.
People are to apathic to bother. And most of them does not have savings, rather debt, I suppose, so why bother taking away few bucks from the wealthy?
Just thinking… 🙂
Cheers,
Alex
P.S. – You mean Nigel Farage? 😉
Hello Nicole,
this question is OT, but would you agree with Louis de Sousa and his recent piece on TOD on solar power?
“The actions recently taken in Europe against solar power are not a sign of failure but rather a consequence of the highly successful progress of PV technologies.” — he claims that declining subsidies are largely thanks to decline in solar power…
https://www.theoildrum.com/node/9841
Cheers,
Alexander
Ilargi,
yes – Britain, then Bulgaria, and recently Italy too:
In fact, as the ABI notes, loans to families and companies dropped by record amounts in January.
Dave – looking forward for your take on Spain (where the amount of bad loans started to decline?)
Alex
Hi all again,
just want to thank to Dave and TAE, I used your material in my article about deflation in Europe – and some people found it interesting and it went to prime time in TV News – so maybe some people will wake to the reality of deflation, though other “analysts” think Eurozone has already “hit the bottom”, so lets see…. 🙂
Alex
Dave an p01,
thanks for insight. No worries there, I do not intend to go into any kind of debt, since that takes my freedom of act (in the long-term).
I also do not have children (yet), since I did not figure out how would I explain to them the tragic state od the world in the coming decades and hey, had my potential children to grow up, they will likely to have their on children etc., so I am not sure thinking in decades ahead it long enough perspective.
I think “bottleneck” years are ahead of us starting today and each new soul to this world will have to experience that – soooner or later. Unsustainable growth (and then contraction) of credit is just one of many irresponsible things people do for greed and immediate survival, or something like that.
I am not even mentioning the climate change issu here, since this is absolute manifestation of our collective failure as a species….
cheers,
Alex
Strangely enough, almost no responses to this important event. Why?
Also I noticed Charles Hugh Smith (guest blogger at ZeroHedge) noticed this deflationary trend in Europe, though he used a slightly different tables from Dave, where no Europe wide deflation was obvious yet.
One comment on ZH noticed, that ECB could fight deflation with further lowering of bank reserves requirements, which are already rodiculously low… how will all this end?
Almost all of my friends in Slovakia are in debt (my sister too), and those who are not, are doing everything possible to get into debt – becouse everybody is entitled to have his/her own house in order to raise his/her own children.
Most. Tragic. Species. Ever.
Whatever happened to DESERTEC?
Nature magazine reports today, that Sahara solar plan loses its shine… here: https://www.nature.com/news/sahara-solar-plan-loses-its-shine-1.11684?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20121101
Alex
Hi Ilargi,
great article. Small correction – Czechoslovakia did split in 1993 (1. january)
Václav Klaus is not my favourite person either (he is climate sceptik and free market zealot :-), but some of his remarks make sense (as with everybody, right?).
And why not to mention Hitler, when Golden Dawn in Greece has 22 % of votes?
I said that elsewhere, that we will face multiple “Hitlers” on many continents – not a nice picture, but why should it be otherwise?
Alex
Hey Ilargi, you are optimistic here – most people were NOT thinking at all. They are/were bussy with feeding their families and children, and fullilling the not so basic needs (yet).
For me, a was too young to think about the european project – I thought it is a good idea though – but that was all. In my younger times I was bussy with climate change, and later on with peak oil. Now finances, thank you. That is the story.
Alex
BI has and excellent article on “catastrophic China deleveraging”:
https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-end-gamethe-dark-side-of-a-great-deleveraging-2012-7
Alex
Fighting for a peace? Seems like oxymoron, but I get the point Ilargi.. excellent overview, if optimistic:
“We either start restructuring the banks, take the pain associated with that as real men…” – no way for that.
We are too busy with our own lives. The more debt, the lesser time to think about OPP (ours/others peoples problems)… however, there is one solution we know all about..
yeah, and I remember a recent e-mail exchange with an slovak economist that the problem are *people saying that we have too much debt.* Huh, only roch people (nations) have debt, not poor ones. The notion that the debt bubbles the prices is not well accepted. So what… who cares?
Alex
Nice one Ash,
and I would add that Argentina (and Russia in 1998) had its *OWN* sources of oil, which probably helped them to regain economic growth… so I think Greece is fu*ked up even more, if not forever…
Alex
Ok, now we have this: Oil price could plunge to $50, says Credit Suisse
what will happen to Bob Hirsch’s tar sands investment? 🙂
Alex
Hello Ash, here is what happens accourding to Financial Times (h/t ZeroHedge):
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/05-2/FT%20breakdown.jpg
Hello Viscount,
I am from Slovakia and work in the Czech Republic. I do not think the full blown deflation has hit (as nowhere in the world, just yet), but right now we are having massive anti-corruption demonstration in our country and in the Czech Republic, students are protesting against new reforms. In Slovakia there have also been protests among the doctors who were protesting against privatization of hospitals etc… on the other hand, mortgage frenzy is ongoing… Alex
I recommend also ZH article on oil prices development:
“Needless to say, an epic deflationary shock will need to follow immediately, just as in 2008, which means that, in keeping with the tradition of being 6-9 months ahead of the market, our question today is – which bank will be 2012’s sacrificial Lehman to set off the latest and greatest deflationary collapse and send crude plunging to $30 just after it hits $200.”
— now, that IS shocking…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/200-oil-coming-central-banks-go-ctrlp-happy
Hello TAErs,
Brent oil price broke the july 2008 record:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/brent-priced-eur-record-highs
we still have to wait for the oil price crash. But I do not care, I do not have a car, right? 🙂
cheers,
Alex
Tyler Durden writes:
“Debt is no cure for debt. What it can do is prevent a self-fuelling Fisher-style debt-deflation and it is clear that the LTRO has at least to some extent achieved that.” –https://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe-flaw
A then there is this:
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2012/02/what-is-smart-species-like-us-doing-in.html”
there is something we can to about our predicament, but not much really…
