[Variable81]

Thanks Raleigh.

Though what I was focusing on was that Armstrong seemed to be talking similar language as we do here at the Automatic Earth while at the same time sounding like he was saying “this time will be different”, a statement I tend to avoid.

But if there is any truth to his Economic Confidence Model, it would suggest a Great Depression style collapse around 2032… which would mean his next turning point (2015.75) is maybe something closer to crashes that occurred prior to WWI? Or as he says, something we haven’t seen in the past 200 years (any history buffs want to speak up about crashes in the 1700’s / early 1800’s? Its a bit out of my wheelhouse as I tend to focus more on the 1900’s up to now…)

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@Ilargi (or anyone else who wants to take a crack at it),

Always trying to decipher what Martin Armstrong is actually try to get at (and whether or not he really knows what he’s talking about), and his post today was particularly confusing:

Understanding the New Era we Face – No More General Terms Apply

If anyone would like to chime in and perhaps lay it out for me how what he is suggesting (i.e. flight to private assets, not a crash where bonds will rise and assets will turn to dust) aligns / conflicts with what is generally proposed here at TAE, it would be oh-so-much appreciated.

Thank you!
-Variable

[Variable81]

@Nicole,

Just a quick couple of questions I’m hoping you can address:

– Phasing out of lecturing; is it that the results you’re getting from your lectures are starting to fall below expectations, or perhaps it has just “run its course” and now you are looking for something new?

– Moving from Canada; I suppose you’re cashing out of the housing bubble while it is at its peak here, but curious what your longer-term view for Canada is at this point? Also, I believe you have family… does this transition across the Pacific impact them greatly?

– Bioregional institute; sounds fascinating, but will it be an organization that could offer something like a study visa for NZ? Looking online, it seems as if I would be limited to a 2-month stay if I was thinking of visiting Atamai but not relocating there, and not sure of the duration of the curriculum you are planning to design.

– Atamai; looking forward to hearing about potential short-term work/volunteer opportunities – are they likely to appear in the near future? Again, not sure I could afford to relocate to NZ, but would love to make a 2-month vacation into an experience where I can absorb knowledge like a sponge while giving something tangible back to the Atamai community (the experience being something I can bring back to Canada and share with others) 🙂

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@Ilargi,

Good to hear Nicole will still be about, but I think my comments still stand – how much reading can one do at TAE before we become bored with the academics of collapse and each of us start to take action to change/improve our futures? And how much can you/Nicole write that will really help/improve the lives of individuals who visit this site? Even if this was a false warning of Nicole’s departure, events may unfold in the (near?) future that would see you/Nicole end TAE or have individuals see their access to TAE curtailed and/or extinguished.

Its not to say I’m not grateful for the updates provided in the Debt Rattles, but truth be told, the greatest value I’ve received from TAE was the “big picture” outlook. It gave me something to look forward to and to plan towards. Just reading Debt Rattles all the time (or being, say, a ZeroHedge junkie) will give you current updates which are all well and good… but trying to plan ahead and live one’s life based on daily updates is maddening.

The dream is to one day wake up and be able to say “well, I don’t really need to keep checking ZeroHedge / The Automatic Earth / CNN / TinFoilHat.org / etc. every day, as everything I really need is right in front of me”. I’ll admit that dream is a tad bit naive and overly simplistic, but I don’t remember anyone ever saying dreams had to be completely realistic…

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

This is ironic/funny.

For the past year I’ve been constantly complaining (to myself, or anyone who will listen I suppose) that I feel like I’ve been doing so much reading/learning since 2011 about the things The Automatic Earth focuses on (e.g. financial collapse, peak oil, patterns in social psychology), but that the “learning” phase of my life felt like it was coming to a close.

Quite frankly, I was getting bored of coming here (or to other collapse-oriented websites) and reading the same thing, over and over. Now I find myself being pulled towards *doing* something with that knowledge; actually living the lifestyle I’ve been reading about so much these last few years.

Perhaps the truth is that there are no *real answers* here at the Automatic Earth, or anywhere else. There’s certainly a wealth of warnings and good ideas, but in the end we all need to figure out what is important to us in our lives and make our own decisions and live with the consequences.

With the loss of Nicole, I must be honest and say my time here will be far more limited… but perhaps that’s a good thing. Time to give up on online community, and find real community where I can start putting what I’ve read about to good use.

@Cory,

Sorry to hear things haven’t turned out as you planned. But as to your question “what do I do now?”, it’s simple really – you either turn your back on your convictions and give your wife what she wants (regardless of whether or not you think its right) and make amends with family members by agreeing with their vision of the future, or you hold onto your convictions and pay the costs associated with them rather than blame others.

You know exactly what it will cost you to continue down this path – the potential loss of your spouse, a lowered standard of living, and being a pariah within your circle of friends & family members – but now you have to decide if your beliefs are worth that cost.

On the plus side, there’s nobody out there to judge you but you. So choose what you think is right, and what you think will make you most happy.

Good luck,
-Variable

[Variable81]

@Diogenese Shrugged,

“I think Ilargi’s and Stoneleigh’s warnings are probably right: that a collapse is likely to proceed faster than most people would predict…”

Some clarification is probably required there. I know Stoneleigh has always suggested we may see a very quick collapse of global finance, and I’ll go out on a limb and even suggest she may believe global commerce may come crashing down fairly quickly too.

But I’m pretty sure Stoneleigh has also suggested this may kick any energy/resource collapse down the road awhile, while we focus our attention on restarting our social operating system.

Where I’d really love some clarification is where Stoneleigh & Ilargi stand with regards to collapse that goes beyond the financial & commercial realms – i.e. that of political, societal and cultural collapse (as defined by Orlov).

From one of her podcasts (something to do with a lightning bolt?), I also feel as if Stoneleigh is somewhat in alignment with the vision put forward by John Michael Greer in his book The Long Descent – that basically, we’re looking at a downwards correction but in fits and starts where there may be short periods of growth (and things look to be improving) before we get smashed back down again.

That being said, like you I worry of a bigger catastrophe/collapse brought about by the fact our society is so *leveraged* on debt, technology and blind faith (ignorance?). We’re the biggest house of cards in recorded history, and when we collapse the level of human trauma and suffering may be as great as you, I and/or others fear.

-Variable

[Variable81]

@D,

1) Governments will certainly “do their best”, but it may not be good enough

2) I’m no industrial farmer, but I’m pretty sure having “oodles” of money wouldn’t help my crops grow if there’s no fertilizer/fuel/farm equipment/etc. to buy with it because the financial system has seized up and global trade has come to a standstill. Money without the confidence behind it is basically just excess toilet paper.

3) And if the cost of “current” inputs rises? One might suggest you’re speculating that cost structures won’t change dramatically, and thus ironic that you feel speculators should be blown out…

4) I know where I live in Canada, we’ve unfortunately built a giant “urban sprawl” of houses and concrete over some of our best farmland… I’m sure we’ll realize our mistake soon enough

5) Fair criticisms about vegetables, but perhaps why everyone’s lives are going to have to change once 2000 mile salads as well as grains become no longer affordable for those of us living in large cities or far away from agricultural heartlands

6) There are growing options for us city-folk without backyards (e.g. https://www.freshcityfarms.com/news-events-urban-farming-toronto-local-food-movement/organic-balcony-gardening-101/); while it may be difficult to grow all your produce needs on your balcony, it’s just one part of a bigger solution communities will need to foster in a future that is more about localized solutions

7) I’m not sure how strategic any international purchases really are – once finance and trade start to collapse, good luck to the Chinese owners of a hog company here in getting and product shipped over to mainland China (or getting any of their investment back for that matter); what’s much more likely is that the “strategic” Chinese are looking for ways to funnel their ill-gotten wealth out of China, and buying up a US hog farm may fit that bill

No offense, but your perspective sounds like what you’re hoping will happen as opposed to what likely will be. People who have an investment in something sometimes tend to overlook the risks they face and focus on the things that they think will maintain the status quo.

On the plus side, you seem to be on the right track in thinking about land as a productive asset and one worth passing onto your children and grandchildren. Let’s just hope things don’t get so topsy-turvy in the years to come that holding onto it becomes more difficult than originally thought. And careful about believing to know things to be true as a matter of ‘fact’ – lots of ‘black swans’ out there to ruin all those things we find ourselves so sure of.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@Ilargi,

To be fair, Raleigh did share his own opinion:

“Couldn’t agree more. It really is the only way people ever take a good, hard look at themselves and their lives. Everybody’s on automatic pilot, and the plane is heading in the wrong direction, except they don’t see it. Suffering is what wakes you up. It’s essential for growth, or any kind of “deep” growth. Without some suffering, which would allow people to step off the treadmill for awhile and look around, I don’t hold out much hope for the planet.”

There’s only so many opinions out there – not everyone’s will be unique. Sometimes it’s just easier to look around at what has been said and say “yeah, I agree”.

And quite frankly, there’s a lot of repetition here at TAE and the other financial/economic/energy intellectual ghettos I slum in. That’s not a criticism – it’s just my opinion that a lot of the “big stuff” (only at least key/important stuff) has been discussed (and explained in wonderful & thoughtful detail by Nicole), and now we all just look to the little daily events, waiting for the “big one” to hit once again. That’s probably one of the reasons why we get so many Raulian overview Debt Rattles as opposed to Fossian in-depth treatises these days on TAE (that and I’m sure Nicole is busy with tours and whatnot).

Again, not a criticism – both styles are appreciated for what they are and both serve their purpose – just the way things seems to be this late in the game.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

Interesting that while we discuss income distribution and taxation issues here, Mr. Armstrong is pointing out that increased taxation contributes to a rise in conflict/war…

The Model & The Dogs or War

Regardless of what is the right action going forward, it does seem as if we’re truly in a predicament where no option looks particularly pleasant.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@rapier,

“The primary effect of very high tax progressive tax rates at the top is not to take the money and redistribute it but rather it discourages the payment and even seeking of very high pay”.

I hear that song and dance all the time but have never seen any proof of it in real life. If someone offers me an extra $10 in salary but taxes me at a 90% marginal rate, I’ll still take it. An extra $1 is an extra $1 after all.

Maybe there is some weight to what you are arguing for the working class – i.e. if I had to work my arse off for that extra $10 only to be taxed at 90% then yes, I may not opt to pursue the extra $1 of income. But if I’m a CEO who makes $500,000 a year and could make $900,000 though taxed at 90% on the additional income, they’d definitely do so as I’m pretty sure even the hardest working CEO does not work that much crazily harder than the laziest CEO and could justify the additional $40,000 (not to mention any tax saving/deferring schemes they could also take advantage of). If there are people who wish to leave $1 / $40,000 on the table for more leisure time then so be it – I’m sure there is someone who will step up and take that money, or will do that “harder” job for reasons other than monetary gain.

@ilargi,

More to the point of my original comment about monetary policy & interest rates vs. income inequality – it seems obscene payments of $500,000 to $900,000 to CEO’s are only possible once monetary policy has become loose and liquidity is overflowing. Trying to justify that a CEO (i.e. one person!) is “worth” 10x or more employees seems as ridiculous as justifying paying $600,000+ for a house in inner-city Toronto.

Or in other words, income inequality seems to only be possible when realistic valuation is out the window – something that seems to occur every time the system gets flushed with excess liquidity.

Wish I could find more to support that argument, but working from a smartphone with intermittent WiFi in a 2-star hotel isn’t conducive to drafting guest posts on TAE 🙁

Hopefully you won’t hold it against me for batting this one back to you (or asking someone else in the community to do the legwork of investigating the chicken/egg riddle that is excess liquidity vs. income inequality).

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

“There’s your homework for the weekend, Variable”

No fair! I’m in Bangkok, Thailand this weekend… trying to avoid protests and/or rubber bullets meant for protesters…

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

“Repeat after me: The lowest tax rates for higher incomes lead to crisis.”

RAGE RAGE RAGE RAGE RAGE!!!!!! 🙁

I just finished reading Thom Hartmann’s “The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America–and What We Can Do to Stop It” (spoiler – unless you like heavily biased, Democratic party apologist and “Economic Royalist / Bankster” conspiracy theory I’d take a pass – a shame too as he references the work of Steve Keen, Chris Martenson and Chris Hedges whose works I appreciate), and found myself off-put by his similar conclusion.

While I can appreciate that income distribution is an important issue and seems to occur prior to financial crashes and large-scale conflict, I think to suggest it is the cause is wrong… Or at least not the entire story.

I would like to see what was happening in terms of monetary policy, interest rates and inflation/deflation at all of those times you’ve highlighted, Ilargi. Its just a guess, but I wonder if we would see loose monetary policy, low interest rates and excessive liquidity in all of those periods leading up to clear income inequality. If so, it might suggest that income inequality is not so much the problem but a symptom of something bigger/worse that has been discussed in detail here at TAE.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@AutoMan,

This is absolutely excellent. Very glad you took this challenge on, as your article provides a lot of insight and a strong argument for why everyone who’s dedicated to the principles TAE espouses should consider FOSS-based technology/computing solutions, even if they are currently using more commercial options.

Should you have the time/inclination to write another article, and should TAE be willing to host it, I’d love to get further insight on how FOSS-based technology/computing could be applied as solutions to some of the finance/energy predicaments we’ll be facing in the next few years. Perhaps there are some obvious applications (that are not so obvious to me) where technology/computing could support families in their homesteading efforts, and/or local communities in their time banking arrangements?

Cheers!
Variable

[Variable81]

@sensato,

Wonder if the posts are increasing because of the Debt Rattle series, or because people’s “spidey senses” are starting to go off. For a good couple of months I felt like there was a lull leading up to Christmas, but since the second week of January my paranoia has started building up again.

Increased paranoia = more jibber-jabber out of me here on the forums? Probably…

@Professorlocknload,

If you’re building sustainability within a city/town/community in the ‘core’ that relies on resources being pulled in from the ‘bushmen’, it’s really not all that sustainable. And there’s a good chance you’d be surrounded by people who aren’t prepared – you’d look like a pretty tasty morsel should they realize your larder is stocked while theirs is bare.

That being said, if you’re suggesting no man is an island and community is a necessity of survival, I’m certainly in agreement with you on that one.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

“I’m having a hard time finding anything more useful to add at this point”

Feeling the same way.

I think I’ve read about as much as I can on TAE – the message generally has not changed (since the situation has not changed), so now it’s just a matter of sit & wait until the system finally collapses.

At the same time, as my desire to read (and re-read) ideas I’ve been presented over and over wanes, my desire to get out and start doing something about it grows. If it wasn’t for this darn 9-5 office job in the heart of Toronto, perhaps I’d be a sustainable-living northern Ontario bushman by now!

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@IanFraser,

Ian, I’m guessing you think democracy is a good thing? That the Thai majority knows whats is best for them and are not enticed/paid/cajoled/etc. into voting for the party that has won the last “x” number of elections?

I won’t disagree with you, but I will suggest you check this out before giving democracy its due…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato’s_five_regimes

It would seem that Plato saw democracy as the precursor to tyranny. The fact that the group who is trying to push for the “correct” type of people to govern is a minority does not suggest to me their views are wrong.

Perhaps we’d be better off here in the US/Canada too if we got rid of our political class and replaced them with the “correct” type of people (i.e. individuals with morals, integrity and a demonstrated history of sacrifice for the public good) – but I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a majority that both understood and supported the idea of having such people in place to govern us.

Cheers,
Variable81

[Variable81]

@ VSA,

“Nobody wants to hold an empty bag”
E-money is the biggest empty bag I can think of. Its an electronic equivalent of IOU’s (only worse, as there’s no underlying tangible good like in our current system where at least some of the money supply is not debt but physical cash), and prone to all the dangers of anything illusory / unreal.

Systems can fail, get hacked and/or be manipulated. At least with tungsten-filled gold I can melt it down and get some of my gold value back. And my friends’ wedding band is tungsten, so its not a complete loss if I can also learn to fashion jewelry 🙂

But more seriously, I can learn to spot fake coins – I can’t learn how to unmanipulate a controlled digital money , or ensure 100% that the systems will be hack/failure proof.

I appreciate your / M.Armstrong’s views on the future of money, but I think its a flawed view based on the extrapolation of past trends which may start to reverse themselves in the near future. Some people are already starting to hoard physical dollars… and many of the people I meet who don’t/won’t are so far in debt I suspect they’ll be debt slaves for the greater part of the next 30 years come the Collapse.

Furthermore, I think it is a view that discounts peoples’ desire to have something of tangible value (or perceived tangible value anyway – paper money are IOUs as well but at least is not based in the ether) within their reach.

Lastly, people seem to chase after rising markets/commodities/investments – with so many currencies starting to fall (my Loonie included) and the US dollar on the rise, perhaps the unwashed masses with anything left to invest will start to see the allure of the undervalued USD and start to go long… Can’t really imagining money disappearing in a scenario like that.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@Ilargi,

Just wanted to say I appreciate the recent frequency of the Debt Rattle articles. Getting daily commentary, with the occasional in-depth Nicole Foss analysis, is what initially made me love TAE so much. Hope we’re heading back in that direction, as it seems like you’ll have more Canadian content to write about soon (ah, my Canuckbucks… down over $0.05 in a matter of a month…)

@VSA,

I like Martin Armstrong’s work too, but I must say… E-Money risks getting confiscated by those who run the E-Money system, or blown away into the ether when the (inevitable?) Grid-Down event occurs. Better spend it while you still can?

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

Don’t forget Martin Armstrong!
Just got into his blog recently. Found this link there for us Canadian TAE’ers:

Forget house prices and debt, deflation is Canada’s new bogeyman

[Variable81]

@AutoMan,

I think you may have just convinced me to look into the cost of taking a few courses on Linux at my local college and/or possibly look for other free software tutorials online. Tip of the hat to you and your thoughtful/succinct comments, sir.

@Ilargi,

I have to say I agree with a lot of what AutoMan is suggesting, and I think he’s been fairly respectful about trying to get his point across. I’d actually much sooner support you in taking courses on free software/operating systems to support the overall TAE movement than support your purchase of a new Mac – especially when one considers you could probably afford both the training and a replacement computer running something along the lines of Ubuntu for less than the new Mac.

I’d also be happy to know that TAE isn’t supporting a commercial organization when free solutions which can make peoples lives easier through community and sharing of ideas are available.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

Holy crap Ilargi.

No offense, but maybe you should consider not buying an image-focused over-priced consumer product like a Mac!

I’ve had a few computers die on me over the past few years, and now I just jump onto Kijiji and find heavily discounted laptops for sale by people who are looking to upgrade to something silly like a Mac.

Maybe you’re doing something crazy that requires a Mac, but if it’s just your basic web surfing / emailing / word processesing / spreadsheets / etc., I’ve found most cheap/used computers are more than capable of handling this. Best purchase I made was about a year ago – a 2-year old used HP with an SSD drive and Ubuntu installed for $100!!! Pretty sure it can do most things any 2-3 year old Mac can do.

Again, not to be rude, but maybe a World of Change should begin with lowering our consumer good expenditures… hmm?

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@rcmacl,

Curious why you think “giving” people more money will make anything better? Printing a whole bunch of money doesn’t grow more crops, put more precious metal in the Earth (or extract it), create any additional fossil fuels or other energy sources, etc. All it does is give more people money to chase consumables (e.g. food, water, energy) and drive up the prices, as well as devalue any of the debts they would pay off at the expense of the lender.

And while I’m no friend of the banks, to be fair, the money isn’t being “given” – it’s being lent to them at outrageously low interest rates. There might not seem like much of a difference, but given Nicole’s discussions on debt vs. money in the past I think there’s a huge difference in so much as debt needs to be paid back (or defaulted on).

As far as investing in more economically productive activities – what would those be? We’ve lived through a decades-long consumption glut, and if there were still economically good investments out there I’m pretty sure people would be making them (instead, they either gamble on the markets or shun the markets altogether – consider the number of investment and/or hedge funds closing up and returning their capital to their investors given that they can’t see any worthwhile investments in the economy anymore).

Again, perhaps I’m being overly critical of Keen and his debt jubilee. I haven’t watched this video yet (will try to soon; holiday season is so busy!), but every other video I’ve watched where he’s proposed it as a solution has always seemed (to me) to be his biggest stumbling block. He speaks so knowledgeably about the problems we’re currently facing, but when discussing debt jubilee it always comes across as wishful thinking, as none of the concerns I’ve raised above tend to be discussed in any great detail.

Cheers.

[Variable81]

“If all you do is to allow industrial capitalism to pick itself up, dust itself off and start all over again what is the point?”

I would think the point is that, had you prepared for a crash, you might be around to see the next bout of industrial capitalism, or whatever comes next anyway.

Hopefully we won’t be as hell-bent on destroying ourselves by sacrificing long-term stability for short term comforts, but I don’t really have that much faith based on the past performance of our species…

[Variable81]

@ilargi,

Not trying to keep things the way they are – I know they have to change and already have started to move in that direction.

I guess the question was more around the thought of “should I basically be prepared to read about mass population die-off?” at some point, as nothing we’re doing seems to be able to mitigate either a) limits to growth, or b) the population growth rate, at this point. Or at least not within the broader context, the “silver-lining” exception being that people’s consumption rates sound to be starting to decline (though likely because people’s ability to take on additional debt has peaked?).

It also makes me wonder what the value in conducting a debt jubilee is, given that it seems the only way most people are going to wake up to the reality of our situation is through pain/loss/suffering (all arguably self-inflicted, given that most people ignore reality and thus fail to manage their expectations of the future)? Maybe that’s a sour/gloomy outlook, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to see the value in helping people in the short run if it causes them longer-term pain/lost/suffering.

Lastly, on making money – “success” is not at all one of my considerations, and was not my intent to imply any such thing. However much The Automatic Earth as a website makes is not an indication of its success, but you must admit that funding is required to continue your efforts here.

As a young person, I’m not privileged enough to own my own 50 acre compound, set up solar/wood based energy solutions, or invest large amounts of my time in learning to live in an energy-poor world despite *knowing* (or at least believing) this is the future I need to prepare for. Thus I’m forced to look for other solutions – namely, working to support myself and build up enough capital to invest in the future I perceive to be unavoidable. If I can make enough not to have to live in horrible, crushing poverty with no options whatsoever then I think that could be considered a “success” in some sense of the word.

Cheers.

[Variable81]

“There are limits to growth everywhere you look”

So fair to say we’re in a “no-win” solution?

Even if we implement Keen’s debt jubilee and somewhat mitigate financial collapse, other limits will kick in and cause pain for those who make it past the first segment of the deflationary Gauntlet (i.e. financial)?

I’m in a particularly sour/glum mood today, so I can’t help shake the thought that at some point something is going to have to happen to address limits to population growth – i.e. some people are going to have to leave the party we call “Life” before they might otherwise choose to…
🙁

[Variable81]

Thanks Nicole!

This was a very interesting read, and certainly a nice pre-Christmas present to find here on TAE 🙂

This struck me as the saddest part of the entire saga:

“Unfortunately the problem was that there were no solutions that could have avoided the pain people continue to face, no matter who was in power, and any government trying to do anything under circumstances of inflated expectations, copious spending priorities and very little money is going to upset almost everyone. When anger and fear are in control, and the there are inevitably going to be far more losers than winners, whatever one does tends to be seen in a negative light, even if it was the best possible action under the circumstances. Nothing within the scope of what is actually possible looks like success to anyone.”

I suppose it was silly of me to assume things would finally right themselves once the crash finally gets here. Looks like a decade of remembering the good old days and fighting about how to revive them while the world crumbles around us will be something we’ll have to deal with first before people finally accept reality for what it is 🙁

Cheers.

[Variable81]

Love Keen’s work, have enjoyed watching his interviews in the past, and hope to see him speak in person one day (I heard he was at University of Toronto awhile back for a visit, but not sure if he did any speaking and/or public events?).

That being said, I’ve never completely understood/accepted his “Debt Jubilee”. If everyone was given “free money”, it sounds as if the big losers would be the lenders while those who shouldn’t have over-extended themselves with excessive debt in the first place. They get to keep their ill-gotten wealth (likely their homes and maybe a car or two, being our biggest purchases), while everyone else gets a whole bunch of money that will likely be used to chase either a) more financial products and/or assets, driving up prices to even more unsustainable levels, or b) real necessities/consumables like food, water, energy, etc. which will drive prices even higher, further deteriorating everyone’s standard of living.

Maybe I’m too doom & gloom, but I think a crash is just what the doctor ordered. Anything less and people will fail to learn one of life’s greatest lessons – what goes up, must come down.

Cheers.

[Variable81]

Hi Nicole,

Just curious if you’ve had a chance to read Wheat Belly by William Davis?
If so, your thoughts would be appreciated. I just finished it myself and am trying to contemplate how to remove as much wheat from my diet as possible.

Cheers!

[Variable81]

@woodra,

I always found this to be one of the best starting places for thinking about how to prepare for financial collapse:

https://theautomaticearth.com/Lifeboat/how-to-build-a-lifeboat.html

Cheers,
-Variable

[Variable81]

@GO,

Thanks for the measured response to my (probably overly-critical) comments about the Doomstead Diner podcasts.

I just wanted to clarify that it’s not the quality of the podcast (quality seemed decent enough save for a few audio issues) that brought about my criticisms, but the style and (one of) the personalities (example – to this day I’m still maddened by the fact James Howard Kunstler can’t refrain from eating, chewing, and/or breathing heavily while his guests are speaking on his podcasts! So disrespectful! Grrr!).

When the host of a podcast has to basically repeat, verbatim, what his guest just said and then throw in a “… as I’ve said many times before…”, I basically check out to what that person is saying.

When I’m listening to a podcast, I’m looking for the host to present thought-provoking questions to challenge their guest’s point of view and tie it all back to the bigger picture and/or overall focus of their podcasts (one of the two hosts of Doomstead Diner was successful in that endeavour)… not to be reminded of what the host said before or thinks they already know to the point that it sounds as if they’re trying to lecture their guest speakers.

In fact, I think one of my favourite Nicole Foss interviews may have been with Radio Ecoshock (if I’m remembering it correctly), where the host was very uniformed on economics, ponzi-finance, and asset bubbles. But he was humble in admitting that lack of knowledge, and his questions were valuable as they were probably the same kind of questions most of my uninformed friends/peers would ask if I could drag them out to a Nicole Foss talk/lecture. Save for a few anecdotal stories he told to relate to Nicole’s points, the rest of the time he basically just stayed out of Nicole’s way as she laid out her worldview on finance and energy.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

Ted,

I haven’t heard the Puplava thing

Read the Puplava thing. Specifically this:

Nicole is relatively optimistic about Japan, where she feels the worst is over

Did Nicole actually say that, or is Jim putting words in her mouth? Every time I’ve heard Nicole speak I thought I remember her suggesting that Japan is f*cked, though perhaps she says it a bit more politely than that.

Oh, and not to criticize (which means I’m about to criticize), but I’m not seeing the value in a less-than-two-minute plug for Nicole on Jim’s show – I’m not about to pay Jim to listen to his “financial sense” (even if it is Nicole on there) for an hour, particularly when there’s so much great material out on the web, and free at that! But when Jim feels like sharing his chat with Nicole for free, I’d certainly appreciate you posting the whole chat, Ilargi.

While I’m on the topic of criticism, the Doomstead Diner podcasts were difficult to listen to, not due to anything Nicole said/did, but for the way one of the interviewers kept repeating Nicole’s ideas back to her as if they were his own, or asking her questions she JUST ANSWERED moments prior, clearly suggesting he hadn’t been listening to what she just said (or at least not comprehending it). That’ll be the last DD podcast for me, thanks kindly!

C-Realm podcast was great, though I was a bit surprised by it. I’m sure Laurence is a very lovely man, and I think it was bold of Nicole to team up with someone so optimistic to balance out the doom/gloom attached to her unfortunately truthful narrative. That being said, I found Laurence seeming to somewhat struggle and/or came up short in his responses to a lot of the Q&A’s with KMO, usually just offering up hopeful comments like “we just have to fix it…” or “there’s got to be a better way…” and so on and so forth.

I’m not opposed to optimism, and if people see workable solutions to our problems I’ll gladly pursue them. But I’m not a fan of optimism for optimism’s sake, or optimistic responses to cover up one’s lack of knowledge and/or awareness of a subject. I get enough of that from the talking heads on CNN, CBC, CNBC, etc.

On a more positive note, I am looking forward to the new TAE material coming out that features Nicole’s A World of Change plus the message her and Laurence are currently delivering across the US. I haven’t supported TAE in awhile, so buying both sets would probably be a good start.

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

I may be wrong, but pretty sure I’ve read numerous times here on TAE before (and perhaps in a book about bubbles I had the pleasure of reading, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation) that, paradoxically, you tend to see rising prices right before a bubble pops/deflates. Usually it’s in conjunction with falling sales, which we seem to be seeing in Canada, at least according to Garth Turner (not that I hold him to any high degree of esteem):

Fact is, property values outside of Calgary, the weird steamy bits of Van/Lower Mainland and the manic middle market in the GTA are no longer robust. There’s a condo glut in Ottawa and Winnipeg starting to impact the whole market. Halifax is cooked. Montreal prices are comatose. Vancouver Island and Saskatoon are awash in listings. Yesterday I told you about the new housing market in the wider Toronto area, where sales have fallen by up to 50%.

All of this is happening when you can still get a variable mortgage for 2.4% or lock up for a half-decade at a point more. Does anyone seriously believe prices and sales will romp higher because rates fail to rise, or even drop by a quarter? Cheap money didn’t save the American housing market after prices had roared above income levels. It didn’t work in Japan or Spain or Holland.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/10/23/new-lesson/

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

I accept entirely that tax increases are deflationary – that is pretty obvious.

No it’s not. Tax increases raise prices, but they have nothing to do inflation. They can’t, because it would give governments absolute control over inflation/deflation, and they don’t have that.

@ilargi,

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but is a good way to look at it is thinking of a big pie (all the money currently in circulation), and taxes are simply the government’s ‘take’ of the pie? They neither increase nor shrink the total size of the pie (inflation/deflation), but just lay claim to a piece of it?

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@ilargi,

Price inflation is a useless term. It completely ignores any and all different reasons why some prices go up or down, even though it should be obvious that this is crucial information if you really want to know what goes on in an economy. It’s a tool for the analytically challenged. It’s also a mistaken term of course, because it doesn’t describe inflation at all, which is money and credit supply x velocity, not what happens to some random basket of goods, or cookies becoming more expensive because the baker has the flu.

Thank you sir. You’ve summed up the argument I’ve had about a thousand times with people when trying to explain to them how price changes are not as important as the amount/velocity of money within the system. It’s an argument I suspect I’ll continue to have to make with most people…

@Sid,

Interesting ZH link, and curious why so much physical cash is being sent overseas. Perhaps from a population standpoint it makes sense, but from a wealth-allocation standpoint I think most of the world’s wealth (paper/electronic anyway) is held in North America and Europe? Perhaps some in the Middle East given the oil revenues flowing in there?

I do know if I were to flee North America to hide out in South-East Asia, South America or some other out-of-the-way place I’d probably want to have a big stack of cash as opposed to electronic promises from half-way around the world, however.

And the majority of people here in North America seem to have so much faith in the system that they don’t see the value in keeping physical cash as opposed to putting everything on credit… :S

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

What if foreigners decide to convert their dollars, for example?

Nassim,

I’d like to better understand the the scenario in which you see this event unfolding.

The way I see it, bailing out on US dollars is an economic death sentence for many developed nations around the world. They’ve hitched their wagons to the US and globalization, and many of their economies look to be worse off than the US in terms of sustainability (though yes, the US is still only the prettiest horse in a glue factory). So to walk away now would probably be one of their last options.

Anyways, I would agree it is easy to imagine a scenario where prices do go up due to inflationary pressures… the problem I find most people have is providing a plausible narrative where that would happen.

Cheers,
Variable

PS – kudos Bluebird; that is one of my favourite South Park snippets

[Variable81]

Take any government you want in North America, Europe, and capitalist Asia: none act in the interests of their poorer citizens anymore. Even if one would insist on still calling them democracies, it should be clear they’re severely out of balance. And that does not bode well. Even the Southern European countries, desolate and desperate as they are, play along, and how could they not, all their ruling politicians come from the financial industry.

Anyone aware of any countries who DO act in the interests of their poorer citizens anymore (assuming they ever did)? Or even a country that acts in the interest of the plurality / relative majority as opposed to the power-and-moneyed elites? :dry:

[Variable81]

@Ted,

I think your comment was directed towards others, but just wanted to expand on that “some places will be an island” comment.

I kind of think some places might be an island when everything comes crashing down, but generally these places will be so backwater that most people accustom to 1st world living probably won’t be living there (i.e. rural Philippines, Thailand, India, South America, or far-north Canada, etc.).

Unfortunately that “island” mentality quickly dissipates when we start considering Fukushima-style events, melting polar ice caps, and other problems that impact humanity as a whole.

So I guess islands will or will not exist based on what the future holds for us? “Prediction is very hard, especially about the future…”

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

“One can conjure up any number of scenarios as the Hollywood fantasy shop amongst others has shown over the years not to mention the doomster blogosphere”

The scenario/example I’m particularly fond of is one that wasn’t actually Hollywood fantasy, but a real life example – New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

I think it’s a very telling example of how quickly we the “civilized” can turn on each other and resort to violence, murder, rape, looting, etc. when our food/water/electricity/fuel sources are compromised for even the briefest amount of time. :dry:

Cheers,
Variable

[Variable81]

@freereel,

How about inside you and all around you?

Invest in your health, your well-being, your skills/knowledge and in your community and those who you love.

They may not pay dividends in dollars, but then again, value may not always be measured in dollars…

Otherwise, bury $10k in an air-tight sonotube in your backyard? B)

[Variable81]

Sid,

Thanks for that garbage.

Sorry, usually enjoy your posts but I had the misfortune of watching that interview on The Economic Collapse blog yesterday and I don’t fancy another go. Its not that I disagree with her on everything she says – its that I don’t know what she is blathering on about half the time so cannot make an informed decision to agree or disagree with her. You’d really think a World Bank lawyer would be at least a little bit succinct in explaining herself and/or her argument…

That being said, what I did get from her is that if only the entire world would just *spontaneously* wake up to the truth about our economic operating system, we could crash it and transition to another one where everyone gets to dig up one of the billions of vaults filled with gold, jewels and other precious metals hidden away from all of us idiot peons by our duplicitous economic overlords.

Forget for a minute that at no point in recorded history has *everyone* (or even the majority?) accepted anything all at the same time or to the same degree, and the fact that past experience tells us that crashing an operating system typically leads to chaos, volatility, violence, uncertainty, criminality, broken promises, etc.

Even if we forget those things, I’d like her to explain what good a bunch of buried treasure does for all of us when there is not enough energy to go around to continue producing enough food to feed the billion of mouths in this overpopulated hornets’ nest we call Earth?

Sorry to be negative, but I think she’s (dead) wrong about whether the question is if we love ourselves enough to help ourselves or to let everything go to hell in a hand basket. If we loved ourselves (and our children) enough we would have never let it get as far as it has. Now all that’s left is the brutality of reality when Mother Nature wakes us up to the way the world really works.

Wow, bit of a fire in my belly tonight… Or perhaps its just a sour mood… but have to wonder at what point all the intellectuals who frequent TAE will decide to cut their losses in terms of workable solutions and start preparing for the fact they may have an inevitable fight on their hands for the simple privilege of survival. Not because their ideas aren’t sound or appreciated by other TAE’ers, but because most of the people are terminally dependent on our current operating system and thus have already plotted our course to disaster, setting the system to ‘autopilot’…

[Author]

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