Variable81
Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
I remember receiving some sage wisdom as a teen – I had in my possession a highly valued comic book that I was expecting to sell for at least close to the value it was listed for. The advice I received: “something is only worth what someone will give you for it”.
I was dismissive of said advice when first hearing it, but when I went to sell at the comic book store the owner wouldn’t even offer me half its value.
It was a good lesson to learn at a young age. Turns out people seem to enjoy overvaluing their assets, as it makes them feel more wealthy. They also seem to enjoy forgetting that they likely won’t get nearly the full value of said asset unless they unload it at the exact right time – when the asset is in high demand and there is ample liquidity to allow them to purchase it.
Just thought I’d share.
Cheers,
GBV@ V,
I’m not opposed to violence, just against overpaid/overcompensated government unions and their leaders hinting at violence (even jokingly) to extort more compensation from the government, which of course comes from taxing the citizenry.
I say this as a public-service unionized individual myself; any attempt to raise these sorts of discussions with my union brethren was met with either a lack of comprehension as to what I was suggesting, or strange looks of distrust which suggested (to me) they were questioning my loyalty to the union/collective and whether or not I actually belonged there in the first place.
The politicians/law makers are, without a doubt, corrupt as well. If (when?) the people stand up to government through the use of violence as a last resort, I won’t condemn them – but I’m sure by that point the unions of the bureaucratic public sector will likely have been gutted, and rightfully so.
Before I’m accused of disliking unions as much as I (apparently?) dislike the Greeks, let me add that I would support a unionized work environment – but one where members could join or leave at their own accord. Basically (as a Canadian example, where I live), a “Canadian Workers Union” that works to protect/uphold the rights of all workers and to push for higher wages and less income inequity across the nation. No union seniority or complex hierarchies either – those just allow the unions to be captured/compromised and results in the older/senior members sacrificing the younger members at the alter of wage/benefit increases when economic downturns strike.
Unfortunately, that might actually result in better working conditions/wages for the majority of people in a society, so it’s like a pipe-dream that will never be realized…
“You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will be as one”Cheers,
-GBV@ Everyone,
I recommend you NOT feed the trolls (i.e. talk to them, flame them, acknowledge their existence). Ignore them and let them starve to death – with the social skills / manners they present here, it’s quite likely that’s what will happen to them anyways in a post-collapse world where social capital is once again something of true value.
Oh, and on an unrelated note, to continue on my (trolling?) plight against those horrible, horrible Greeks:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-06/drivers-40-billion-uber-face-death-threats-greece
I wonder how long before North American unions start threatening violence? I was at an Ontario government union rally a few months back and the leader of OPSEU, Smokey Thomas, made a tongue-in-cheek joke about how dangerous it would be for everyone if government employees went on strike and that Premier Wynn should be careful, as of course everyone would hate to see someone get hurt because the union folks were on strike…
Not threatening direct violence of course, but I found it tasteless none the less.Cheers,
GBV@ Ilargi,
I don’t hate Greeks, but I’m not sure how I feel about Calgarians…
Any chance of a similar analysis on the Canadian Oil (Tar) Sands?
And how do the collapse of the price of oil impact NatGas?My understanding was that the only reason the Tar Sands were even viable was because a) NatGas was so cheap and b) Oil was so expensive, so it make sense to convert a bunch of cheap NatGas into SynCrude… basically an energy arbitrage with little EROEI…
And at least give me some credit for being consistent – if I’m going to beat up on the poor Greeks in your other posts and say they might be better off by going through collapse, I guess I have to apply that same logic to my Canuck brethren too…
Cheers,
-GBV@ Chriss,
I certainly like your ideas, think they are in line with what Ilargi and Nicole have been teaching here at TAE, and support them (within reason).
My concern, and perhaps why I speak so vehemently about anyone from a Western background, is that we’ve all seemingly sold our souls/morals/ethics/etc. to get to where we are today (even the best of us here on TAE aren’t saints – we live like gods in comparison to anyone who grows up in rural Africa, India, Philippines, etc., and even if we recognize that what do we really do to address that gross inequity?).
Those of us who visit websites like TAE and actively think about the repercussions of our consumption-based energy-profligate lives are certainly the minority, and even if we banded together and started making good/wholesome choices as a society, we should not forget who are surrounded by – millions of hollow/selfish people who seem to have no problem exploiting the world and its peoples to make sure their standard of living continues. Post-collapse, those sorts of people and what they may be capable of to survive absolutely frightens me.
Sorry to use it again, but from the Matrix:
“The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you’re inside, you look around. What do you see? Business people, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system, and that makes them our enemy … You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependant on the system, that they will fight to protect it.”
They absolutely will fight to protect the system we have now, and I doubt they’ll have much pity or remorse for anyone who doesn’t do likewise (i.e. oddballs like us who eschew Western consumerist behaviours and try to go it alone by living off the land in a sustainable manner). If they are willing to fight to protect the system, to exploit the innocent to maintain the status quo, to persecute those who would opt out from their way of living to pursue a more sustainable way of life… what will those same people do when the system collapses?
Sorry, guess I’m paranoid and fear-mongering which I know isn’t particularly helpful. Or perhaps I’m just ahead of my time?
I actually hope its the former, but I can’t help but worry it will turn out to be the latter…Cheers,
-GBV@ Ilargi,
No ill will towards the Greeks, honest!
I simply despise our exploitative Western imperial way of living (despite the fact I benefit greatly from it), and think that the societies who go down the path we have are doomed from the start. Unfortunately for the Greek people, they seemed to have adopted that way of living and their day of reckoning has dawned sooner than the rest of us.As I said before, what the Greeks are going through (which is sad to be sure, but it must be pointed out that it is their own fault to some degree) is likely what we will all have to go through at some point (and it will be all our fault at that point too), as we’ve all eaten the same poisoned fruit from the same debt-financing tree…
@ Formerly T-Bear,
I tend to blame people as people seem to be the ones making the decisions (as SkyNet is not yet sentient, last I checked). If you mean the “act” of management is to blame, well, it was people who were undertaking those management responsibilities. If it is the people in positions of management that you are suggesting are to blame, well, back to my argument to Ilargi – I don’t buy into the “blame game” of saying it was leadership’s fault for lying to the people when those same people were willing (through naivety or ignorance) to follow those leaders and swallow down the lies they were fed.
I refuse to give them any sympathy, as to do so is to enable others to live through an exploitative/imperialist culture and cause massive suffering across the globe and then expect no repercussions for their actions. I know the world isn’t fair, but I just can’t stomach the idea of the injustice were Westerners to exploit/rape the world for the last 80 years and not have to pay the price for it at some point.
Sorry, guess I’m just a prick who thinks people should pay the price for their own decisions? But before Ilargi suggests that (on top of being the Scourge of the Greek Peoples) I have no heart, I will say this – I honestly feel bad for today’s children/infants.
Millennials who are coming of age have it tough now, but at least they have the ability to fall back on the wealth (debt?) their parents have accumulated over the last 80 years of this ponzi game we’ve all be participants in. But the children of the Millennials… well, I’ll be surprised if there’s ANYTHING left for them to fall back on – financially, economically or ecologically. Even if I save all I can for them, I’m really not sure how much of a “leg up” it would be, given the potential catastrophe of a future we may have created for them.
I wouldn’t blame today’s children if they grew up hating everyone who’s currently over the age of 25, or if they put us all to the guillotine / pyre at the first chance they get. Could you really blame them if they did? What have we really done that’s positive for future generations? All we’ve done is drink their milkshake.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_hFTR6qyEo
Cheers,
-GBV@ Ilargi,
You make it sound as if the Greeks were so innocent and never benefited from (or supported) the decisions of their leadership. While I will admit I’m not the most knowledgeable about the Greek situation, its not as if they were held at gunpoint to sell their futures away and/or didn’t enjoy some degree of prosperity while the debt levels were building up. I’m sure coming out of a dictatorship didn’t help at all either, but its still no reason for a nation of people to live above their means. Nobody should ever do that, and yet, virtually the entire developed world has done just that.
All politicians around the world are making bad choices every day to “keep the lights on” and maintain this unsustainable standard of living many of us enjoy; when it finally falls apart, I will be upset to some degree (from the loss of living standards) but you won’t see me pointing the finger at the people who we all elected, who’s lies we swallowed down every day, and laying the blame completely at their feet. It is just as much my fault and the fault of my peers who a) knew (or were ignorant to the fact that) the current way of living was all bought on borrowed dollars, b) never did anything to correct the situation to prevent severe collapse, and c) received some degree of benefit (i.e. houses, food, trips, etc.) from being complicit in this unsustainable scheme.
Blame their *evil* leadership for joining the Euro if you must, but please don’t try to spin me a tale of poor Greeks who never did anything wrong and don’t deserve the horrors they’re currently facing. Everyone’s going to get (and likely deserves to get) what the Greeks got for living beyond their means and playing with (debt) fire – the Greeks just got it first.
And who knows… the Greek’s suffering now might end up being an advantage for them (“he who defaults first, defaults best…”). TAE’s crystal ball is very focused on the coming collapse, but perhaps we could start to see some insight as to what happens post-collapse… maybe those who suffer more now rather than delay it as long as possible (i.e. North America) will be better suited for the world we’re destined to inherit.
Cheers,
-GBV@ V,
“A lack of consumption is not a voluntary act, IMO”
I can only disagree as my personal experience was different. In 2009 I discovered Garth Turner’s Greater Fool website and from there found TAE. At the time my income was growing and my debt was slowly being paid down, but upon gaining a better understanding of inflation/deflation and the potential for a future credit crisis I elected to liquidate my automobile (thus allowing me to pay off my debt), move home with my family (not the most comfortable thing to do as a late-20 somethings individual), start saving like a maniac, and do whatever I could to open my family’s eyes to the risk of debt (they were carrying a very large mortgage on a granite countertops / stainless / landscaped / hot tubbing home that, while very nice, was not worth the investment from my vantage point).
I voluntarily reduced my consumption and increased my savings. Nothing forced me to do so, and in fact, most of my friends were actually going deeper into debt and buying their first homes in/around 2009. But I do recognize of all the 20-somethings I knew at that time, I was the only one heading down that path… so for many (most?), a lack of consumption may very much be a non-voluntary act.
@ Chriss,
“It’s not a conspiracy as such, it’s a class of people working towards a common, well published goal of monopoly, and the board is about to be packed up.”
I wouldn’t even go that far. I’d suggest its everyone working to maximize their well being, not really focused (or aware) of the outcomes of the combined efforts of everyone doing what’s best for themselves – i.e. monopoly and eventual system collapse.
As much as people love to say we’re no longer living in a true capitalist society (instead viewing it a socialist/crony capitalist system), I sometimes have to wonder if this is in fact capitalism at its finest – the strongest firms are doing whatever they can to block/destroy other firms (and individuals) so they can maintain themselves and/or grow stronger. These firms may not be competing fairly, but that doesn’t mean they are not competing. And a monopoly seems like the only outcome that could come from a capitalistic system (prior to its collapse, anyway).
@ Dr. Diablo,
“Anyway, point being ONCE YOU TAKE THE SUMMERS, there is, as VonMises says “no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner…” by choice, or later, by force. No means. None. In any of history’s wide examples.”
Definitely think this is a narrative I’ve seen Stoneleigh and Ilargi write about here on TAE several times.
@ Ilargi,
“But what caused the overcapacity is not that the Greeks built huge and disproportional plants, it’s that people can no longer afford to buy the products the plants produce.”
Hmm… again, not sure I agree 100%. If those plants were build to feed a demand that was not very stable or unlikely to last very long (i.e. feeding consumerism driven by debt that the Greeks should have never taken on in the first place), then why is there any surprise when people start getting laid off due to falling sales as a result of too much indebtedness? Those jobs likely should have never existed in the first place – were they not bought with the creation of debt and the malinvestment of that debt into a project that had no future?
Contrast this to, say, a nation of Greeks who were sitting on wealth surpluses and had nothing to spend said surpluses on – building some sort of plant that produces items for consumption may have been a more sustainable endeavour, as there would be organic demand waiting to be fulfilled and real wealth used to pay for it (as opposed to promises that will likely never be kept in the form of debts). I don’t know if most people would like that example however, as when we look to history I can’t think of many times when debt was not used and people were forced to save up to buy what they wanted (the Dark Ages is the only thing that comes to mind? And perhaps some Native American cultures did not have debt, though I suspect there still would have been borrowing & lending in the form of “good will”).
And I suppose I find it difficult to see it from your & V. Arnold’s point of view because it seems as if you are both discounting personal responsibility to some degree. “Oh, the poor Greeks – they lost their jobs and now they must consume less!” kind of sounds to me like “Oh, the poor pensioners – they lost their pensions and now they must consume less!” when we all knew pensions were ponzi schemes that transfer wealth from the younger working class to the older retired class with a 100% guarantee that eventually a whole generation of people will get the shaft when everyone realizes the pension has gone bust.
That’s not to beat up on the Greeks (or pensioners), mind you – everyone should probably look at their current standard of living, their (perceived) job security, as well as the value of their assets (and if they truly even have claim to those assets) and realize it is all just an illusion. This is why I stress myself out every day thinking whether or not I should just quit my job now and start living a very humble/poor/hard (physical) working lifestyle, as it seems like something we’re all going to have to get used to anyway once everything starts falling apart. But like most others, I suspect, I’m holding on and trying to maximize my wages and minimize how much work I actually do until collapse finally arrives, all the while benefiting from the slave labour / exploitation and human suffering that occurs around the world as we speak so I can enjoy a Western standard of living while preparing for collapse.
Shame on me, yes – but before anyone points any fingers I would suggest they look in the mirror and think about if they are not doing the same thing I am.
@ huckleberryfinn,
“Actually Raul and Nicole are way more dangerous than me. Their lack of understanding of how finance works is going to destroy way more lives than anyone else.”
Actually, I think Raul and Nicole have shown a greater understanding of finance than most people, particularly those in the financial world. I have a high-paid friend working a high-level position in investment banking for the most reputable bank in Canada, and it blows my mind that he doesn’t understand what inflation/deflation truly is – he thinks its just changes in price.
Perhaps you should consider that the world and its financial operating system is incredibly complex – even people like Raul and Nicole who understand it cannot accurately predict how it will play out in the short term / micro-level, thus why I think they focus on longer term / macro-level predictions.
If you want something more short term / micro-level, look to Martin Armstrong, assuming you believe him and the notion he’s dropped nearly a billion dollars into an Economic Confidence Model & AI system that can predict financial cycle turning points to the day based on Pi x 1000. His next big turning point is September/October 2015 – watch for 90% drops on Canadian housing after that point, as you may find yourself having to eat some crow.
Lastly, generally speaking nobody “destroys” anyone else’s lives (unless they’re crazy psycho killers); people destroy their own lives based on the choices they make. Furthermore, anyone who’s chosen to follow Raul’s & Nicole’s guidance have likely eschewed debt and have forgone additional consumption now in hopes of saving some liquidity for a potential collapse; anyone who went in the opposite direction enjoyed more consumption now but has taken on the debt-risks associated with the collapse of the global financial system.
Not consuming more now and paying down my debts certainly isn’t about to destroy my life.
Cheers,
-GBV@ Ilargi,
I’m not a mainstream economist either, but are you sure about this?
“What you describe but don’t understand is deflation. It starts with a drop in spending, caused by lower or no wages, saving or simply the demise of confidence. It doesn’t start with overcapacity. It starts with people losing their jobs.”
I could be wrong, but I completely thought it was a drop in consumption (i.e. due to people’s unwillingness or inability to spend more and/or take on additional debt) that leads to deflation, and that in turn causes lower wages, less jobs and the demise of confidence?
Perhaps the reason I see it that way is because I’m one of those individuals who actually found himself greatly concerned about his personal level of debt and chose to pay that debt off rather than go further into debt to have additional material wealth I really didn’t need (nor could afford).
If there were enough individuals like me out there (i.e. those who break from the system and begin paying down their debts, rather than increasing their consumption and debt levels like so many others), certainly that would have a deflationary impact on the system at some point, no? Though to be fair, every system would eventually hit a peak/maximum level of consumption where nobody could possibly consume any more and deflationary forces would have to ensue from that point forward.
Perhaps it was those individuals who *wouldn’t* consume more that destabilized the system somewhat – their lack of consumption led to the unemployment/underemployment of some individuals who would have otherwise consumed more, but with reduced earnings could not? This in turn led to more unemployment/underemployment within the system, preventing additional individuals from consuming more. And so on and so forth.
In any event, I think it’s more like your chicken/egg analogy (i.e. a circular reference that cannot be solved) than your cart/horse analogy (i.e. an analogy for doing things in the wrong order).
“It doesn’t deter them becise deflation loewred prices, but because deflation took their jobs away.”
They took our jobs!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=768h3Tz4Qik
To be fair Ilargi, perhaps those jobs were never destined to exist in the first place (only in the crazy over-consumption based / over-populated world we currently inhabit, and which appears to finally be going the way of the Dodo… which is something I thought TAE was all for, minus all the catastrophic suffering/death/starvation/war/pestilence/etc. that will be left in its wake)?
“Yeah, the 19th century was a great period, wasn’t it, Matthew, and completely normal to boot, whatever that may mean.”
I definitely see it as “more normal” in the sense that business cycles (booms/busts) were allowed to play out naturally from year-to-year in a more organic fashion, and you didn’t have Central Banks intervening in markets to blow huge bubbles and defer collapse until the point when it would hurt the world (and its people) the most. That’s not to say bubbles didn’t exist before Central Banks, but the bubbles were far less devastating compared to those seen in our highly intertwined and globalized world today… no?
“Deflation is not nearly as bad as everyone thinks”
Well, sorry Ilargi, but in a way I think I might have to agree with him (though not for the reasons he probably wrote it). I mean, deflation isn’t as bad for me as a potential future because I don’t quite see myself being able to “make it” (mentally/physically/spiritually) in a world that pushes inflation slowly on all of us like it has for the past 80 years, robbing us of our purchasing power and our living standards while we drearily march into our soul-crushing places of work every day to continue to support the system we profess to detest. I think to have to live through 30 more years of that would murder my f*cking soul, or at least devour my sanity – at that point I’d probably become a monster myself, or just eat a bullet.
Deflationary collapse on the other hand, while horrible in the sense that all those nasty things (suffering/death/war/pestilence/etc.) I mentioned earlier will occur, is likely the only way all the nasty things (bondage/wage slavery/elitism/increased sociopathy/polarized wealth/etc.) that occurred as a result of 80 years of inflation will finally be addressed.
In either scenario, the fact remains that there’s not enough for everyone everywhere, and somebody somewhere will be forced to make due with less than they either need (or think they need). Pensioners will have to receive far less than they were promised (whether or not they were fools for thinking they’d get what they were promised and @ssholes for kicking their expenses onto younger generations) when pensions are revealed to be ponzi schemes, leaving them angry and disillusioned with society; individuals with chronic and/or debilitating illnesses will have to simply cope and/or face death prematurely, as to invest the resources in saving them would be to doom countless others; Old people will have to die off younger and/or have a lower quality of life in their old age, as the amounts of money poured into them in the form of medication and medical services will most definitely be curtailed; innocent babies who never committed the selfish acts we as adults have committed will probably die before they even see their 2nd birthday, and the mothers that bear them will face increased risks in trying to bring a child into the world.
That’s a more “normal” world than the one we have likely experienced over the last 80 years, and perhaps a world we will soon be returning to. But to not return to that world is to continue this horror story we currently live in even longer is to see how brutal and totalitarian our Western hegemony can become, to see how poor the masses can be at the same time that less than 1% of the world can live like gods, to see how millions can die in wars to make the ultra-rich a few dollars more, and to see how badly we can rape the natural world (potentially dooming our species and all others that we share it with) through resource extraction and gross over-consumption.
Anywhoo, the author certainly does come across as a propagandist and/or an idiot, but I suppose some of the things he wrote made sense to me (though not in the way he intended them, to be sure). And while many (millions? billions?) may suffer and die as a result of the coming deflation, perhaps its the only way to set those who survive the collapse free from the financial/hegemonic enslavement we currently endure.
“The matrix is everywhere, its all around us, even now in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn your TV. You can feel it when you go to work, when you go to church, when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth … that you are a slave Neo, like everyone else, you were born into bondage, born into a prison that you can not smell or taste or touch. A prison for your mind.”
“The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you’re inside, you look around. What do you see? Business people, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system, and that makes them our enemy … You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependant on the system, that they will fight to protect it.”
South Park & Matrix references… that’s enough for me for one day…
Cheers,
-GBVAlso,
Know Nicole has been busy of late, but came across this on the web this morning:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/wairarapa-times-age/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503414&objectid=11367942
Would be nice to hear from Nicole on how the Atamai project is progressing, and to know if there are any updates on the global status that she would like to share with the TAE community that she will be sharing in Masterton today.
Cheers,
-GBV@ GO,
“Most Gold detractors are Leftists as well. They cannot understand an asset of wealth preservation, a stable family jewel item that is NEVER TO BE SOLD or pawned unless of dire emergency.”
I think the sage wisdom of Mike Tyson can be referenced here…
“Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.”
https://m.c.lnkd.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/p/2/005/072/1cc/0ae400a.jpg
I suspect those “dire emergencies” will be much more prevalent in the future than people expect…
Cheers,
GBV@ Lawfish,
If your property were anywhere in southern Ontario, I’d trade labour for knowledge/experience (and a good laugh or two). I’m a city slicker, and could benefit from building up some crop growing / land clearing skills (until the folks buy their retirement property, at which point I assume they’ll be getting all the free labour out of me they possibly can).
(please note, the quality of my labour may be slightly sub-par, given my sedentary office-working lifestyle… d’oh!)
Though given the fact you’re talking 401(k)’s and not RRSPs, I’m gonna go ahead and assume you’re a Yank and not a Canuck…
Cheers,
GBV@ Ilargi,
“I’m just less focused on the short term, and the potential financial profits involved, than Hugh is. As I said yesterday, I think about the 50% increase in homeless kids in the States and the 50%+ jobless rates in southern Europe, and wonder if that justifies the drive for monetary profits.”
Further to my devil’s advocate views on your Hugh Hendry post the other day, I look at your comments and find myself asking why you’d think it was a question of long-term vs. short-term?
You see, if it wasn’t Hugh Hendry, it would be someone else pushing for those monetary profits. Those homeless kids and the higher jobless rates are baked into the cake – whether by human nature or by the fact we’re too far down the road to stop it from happening – and the only questions are who’s gonna book those monetary profits, and whatever will they do with them (i.e. spend it on)?
Personally, I find it a shame that you’re not a billionaire-investor with the short-term in mindset; perhaps you would be the one booking those monetary profits and reinvesting them into helpful solutions like transition towns, public education/awareness on the virtues of preparedness and the ills of over-consumption, buying up land to turn into conservation areas, and buying up politicians to prevent them from changing the laws to allow pipelines to be run through said conservation areas.
But, alas, you are not a billionaire-investor. Those who Hugh Hendry works for will gladly see children become homeless and good people lose their jobs to ensure the cash flow that sustains their ultra-lux / over-consumption based lives continues on uninterrupted. If Hugh Hendry has a problem with that, he will be quickly replaced by someone with less moral reservations and a greater dedication to customer satisfaction.
C’est la vie.
Cheers,
-GBV@ Ilargi,
I don’t believe so. I used to understand the premise you were putting down – that by “playing the game” we enrich the elites – but now I’m not so sure. I’m starting to believe in the concept of cycles, and that the system won’t collapse until it is good and ready to do so – not a moment sooner, no matter how hard I try to change that… and the 1%’ers / elites goose looks to be cooked regardless of whether I’m the most consumption-driven consumer ever or the biggest opt-out-of-the-system hermit to walk the Earth.
People are being tossed out of the system, slowly but surely, and the youth aren’t even being allowed access to it. If it was in the 1%’ers / elites interest for all of us to be “playing the game” to enrich them, I think we wouldn’t be seeing so many people left by the wayside.
Following that line of thinking, I would argue it is important for anyone who’s “still in the game” to take as much as they can OUT of the game (i.e. subvert & drain the system from within, bringing it closer towards collapse?) and squirrel it away for a time when mostly everyone gets booted from the playing field. I suspect having access to wealth will go a long way in being converted into social capital and the basic necessities of life.
And as much as I support the views of TAE in achieving independence / self-sufficiency, I think it’s pretty naive to assume the younger generations can just walk away with nothing and make something of it from which they can survive / sustain themselves. Even for me in my early 30’s having worked a very lucrative career for 10 years, were I to walk away now and try to live off the land I likely wouldn’t be able to survive more than a few years before being sucked dry by the system (and having no liquidity means having no choices).
The way the youth traditionally seem to survive (and thrive) is by being endowed with the wealth / riches of older generations (typically in exchange for care, support and reverence) as those older generations pass into the twilight. Unfortunately, all I see is older generations consuming everything they can before the big die-off.
So I don’t know about you, but I’ll make what I can and save it for a rainy day – I’ve got cousins, aunts, uncles, friends, friend’s children, my sister and her dog, etc. whom I fear won’t be ready once collapse hits and will need whatever support the “enlightened” (or perhaps just “prepared”?) few of the world can provide while they rush to catch up and transition from a world of plenty into a world of hurt.
Cheers,
GBV@ Ilargi,
Okay, I’ll bite (i.e. play devil’s advocate).
I think you’re totally off base. I think you should be out there making every last dollar you can! In fact, there’s probably an argument that all of us ‘enlightened’ TAE’ers should be out there making as much as we can, if only to keep it out of the hands of greedy 1%’ers (who will just blow it frivolous/ultra-lux things they do not need), ignorant investors (who will roll it back into the markets and lose everything when the markets finally crash), and the tentacled-grasp of Goldmanites and their ilk (hookers and blow ain’t free, ya know…).
If you/we go out there and make as much as you/we can, the world might be a little bit better off when everything goes to hell in a hand basket. I have some faith in you/we taking that money and reinvesting it into community initiatives and/or giving it away to relieve the suffering so many of the masses are likely to have to endure in the future.
Obviously TAE is a great source of information and a community (of sorts), but a solution it is not. Telling people to learn to grow food for themselves and learn to live within their means is a good start, but many will find it preachy and turn away from the message that is shared here (as it is a message one has to discover on their own terms, not be forced to accept). Some might say “well, then they deserve whatever happens to them” and I have to agree with that sentiment for the most part. But there’s another part of me that sometimes wonders if I have a *moral obligation* as an aware/enlightened human being to save whatever I can for those who cannot (refuse to?) see what a disastrous future is approaching.
For those who read this, please consider if you believe you have that responsibility as a human being as well.
Lastly, for the love of Pete, could we get an update on how Nicole is doing out in Atamai Eco Village? We haven’t heard much from her, let alone about her, lately. And if she’s willing, I would think it a lovely Christmas present to the community if she could revisit her writings on Fractal Adaptive Cycles and take a look at / reflect on Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model.
Cheers,
GBV@ Ilargi,
Thanks for this article. I’ve seen a few articles (rightfully?) pointing out the Boomers for being the generation that pushed debt and set the system up for failure/collapse, but it’s always worth remembering that the Silents were still at the helm while a great deal of this debt was issued.
The older Boomers seem to be carrying onward with this expansionary debt-based plan. Perhaps a few Boomers see what’s going on and disengage from the rest of their cohort, but I would assume those Boomers are few and far between.
Cheers,
-GBV“Nothing cyclical, unless perhaps you’re talking Kondratieff’s 70-year cycles”
I thought that’s what we were talking???
Or at least Martin Armstrong style Economic Confidence Model cycles. Or Strauss-Howe Fourth Turning style… turnings.Plus, you really can’t blame your average Joe for not expecting something to happen that’s never before happened in their lifetimes (just in books that they don’t read, or movies that gloss over the true suffering of deflationary collapse) – as typical worker bees, they simply don’t seem to have the prudence and/or imagination to accept what’s on the horizon (pardon me if that sounds a bit elitist, but I honestly believe a large part of society either cannot comprehend the idea of “collapse” – or can comprehend it, but actively seek to deny/suppress it).
Besides, trying to avoid such a catastrophe (or convincing others to try to avoid said catastrophe) may be wrong-sighted on our part; it may be nature’s way of culling the wheat from the chaff, so to speak. And that may just be what this overpopulated, unrealistic, materialistic, consumption-driven world needs…
Then again, it’s hard to know what’s right and what’s wrong in a world gone so bonkers.
Now back to my regularly-scheduled over-consumption…Cheers,
GBVNo need to worry – according to this fellow, because the US cannot afford higher interest rates they simply will not go up:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-04/interest-rates-cannot-rise-heres-why
Perhaps I should try that argument the next time my landlord asks for a rent increase – I cannot afford higher rent, thus my rent will stay the same. Make it so, Mr. Landlord!
Sigh. I’m getting pretty tired of non-collapse and all the BS I find myself reading every day. I just hope the collapse comes soon… and that the Canadian housing market goes belly-up before the world goes down in flames so I can at least try to get a nice little piece of land in the middle of nowhere and Houdini-on-out of the big city…
Cheers,
GBV“I don’t think you can argue that capitalism itself is the issue. This is about the erosion of checks and balances, laws and regulations, the erosion of a society’s ability to hold people responsible for what they do, whether they operate in the political field or in private business.”
I’d take it one step farther – this is about the erosion of Western society’s morals, ethics and integrity. We lost those long ago, and now only pretend to have them when it’s socially unacceptable to act otherwise.
Sadly, even we TAE’ers here are likely just as morally corrupt, as I don’t really believe one can exist in the society we live in without being somewhat tainted by fast-and-easy money and the Western standard of high-energy living. The only difference may be that we see how corrupt/tainted our society is (as opposed to putting our heads in the sand or screaming denials until we’re blue in the face) and point out its shortcomings, perhaps as some sort of pennance for our own subconscious guilt.
I’d also point out that you don’t have to be a billionare like Mr. Gross to feel shallow/hollow – I think most people would feel that way if they were forced to stop and really consider their own existance. Thus why there are so many distractions (i.e. circuses) to keep us preoccupied, as who would ever want to subject themselves to the horrors of introspection? Yikes…
Ho hum. That’s enough depressing/cynical thoughts for one day.
-GBV
@steve from virgina,
A comment from an article over at Washington’s Blog that is worth considering:
“Note that the Ukrainians have a model of SU25 that can cruise at 10,000 meters (about 33,000 feet), though its ceiling for short times is much higher. Note that MH17 was ordered by flight control to descend to 33,000 feet from 35,000 feet. “Coincidentally”, that change makes a fighter strike that much easier.
For weeks prior to its downing, MH17 had avoided the war zone, flying around it each day. On the 17th there is a kink in its flight path, where it appears to have been redirected over the battlefield. UKR refuses to release Air Traffic Control tapes which would indicate who sent MH17 into closed air space.”
For your consideration/commentary:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-18/more-just-gas-natural-resource-reason-ukraine-civil-war
Old King Coal…
Cheers,
GBVTime to pee in some cornflakes. Hopefully the following comments will be viewed as true introspection from a bitter/sleep-deprived curmudgeon, and not snarky and overly critical personal attacks on members of the TAE community (though I admit, they are both snarky and critical in nature)…
““We” didn’t set it up, the international banking cartel set it up. The general population is ignorant and apathetic regarding politics”.
And yet, you/we continue to be complicit with its existence. Unless you are planning some sort of coup to take down international governance that you cannot discuss here, I would suggest that you are critical of international governance but at the same time complicit in its existence due to the fact you choose to do nothing to impede/curtail it.
The general population is not *forced* to be ignorant and apathetic – that is a choice they have made themselves (i.e. willful blindness), thus they cannot declare they are not complicit in creating the world we exist in today.
@Diogenes Shrugged,
“Continuing to nit-pick that quote, which I BTW agree with in spirit, how exactly can I stop atrocities being committed in my name?”
The immediate thought that popped into my head is “you can’t”. Not unless you are actually willing to do something to prevent said atrocities, or at the very least something in defiance of those green-lighting said atrocities. And by that, yes, I do mean all sorts of nonsense like putting bullets in skulls, strapping dynamite to your chest to blow up yourself/others in some public venue (perhaps not in the name of Allah, but certainly in the name of your convictions), or something equally as violent – as how else can you stop (i.e. force) others from committing these atrocities other than through inherently violent means (any degree of “force” being a form of violence, IMO)?
I’m not condoning any of that nonsense, mind you (I have neither the courage nor the conviction nor the Action Hero physique to force people to do anything, beyond whatever influence my snarky criticisms can have on them). Just pointing out how (sadly) funny I find it when people either talk about trying to stop something (which requires some degree of force – as why would the tyrannical Powers that Be just up and stop doing things that directly benefit them for no good reason – and is thus a bit hypocritical on the part of those individuals pushing forceful solutions), or talk about distancing themselves from said atrocities by speaking out against/voting against/etc. the people/system whom perpetuate said atrocities.
The second approach I mentioned is (sadly) funny too, as people think by speaking out against the system and “fighting the good fight” (but in a non-violent way) they are doing some degree of good by not being complicit in the atrocities of Western society. But remember that these are the same people who maintain a 1st world standard of living; the same people who don’t have to fight for their survival every day and enjoy an enormous amount of safety and security; the same people who have the *privilege* to waste time on blogs crying out about how much the world stinks and how badly the people at the top are running the show. These people, who cannot see that simply by existing within Western society, are benefiting from the spoils of Western Imperialism to some degree and are thus complicit with its existence (regardless of whether or not they believe it to be true).
“Precisely what the framers of the Constitution struggled with, and failed to adequately safeguard against. As Karl Denninger points out, the thing that’s missing from the Constitution is an “or else.””
The Constitution is just a piece of paper. Every law, every rule and perhaps every human right only exists to be violated/broken at some point in time… and you simply cannot maintain a just/moral society when it is population by unjust/immoral people. This is where the true failure is – not legislators or bankers, as much as it is fashionable to bash them in this day and age, but in We the People and our failure to hold *ourselves* to account.
In a way, I think we’d all be better served looking at ourselves and our own failings rather than spending so much time moaning and groaning about the sociopaths we’ve allowed to take the helm of this ship we call Humanity (though I’m sure there are some of you thinking I’m out to lunch right now… I mean, how could YOU possibly have any failings? How could YOU possibly be at all responsible for the crapulence of the world? Obviously its all the bankers and politicians fault!).
Again, sorry for the urine-flavoured cornflakes (I know they’re bitter), but I think we all need to recognize that we’re all complicit in some form or another of what is happening in the world today (whether we are active through forcefulness, or passive through apathy, ignorance or immortality). Otherwise we get caught up in a cycle of criticizing those who are so obviously guilty (yet so obviously oblivious/impervious to our criticisms) rather than criticizing ourselves to try to realize how we can lead better lives and thus be better people (i.e. the kinds of people who wouldn’t be complicit in allowing a cartel of sociopathic individuals to control the political and financial institutions of the world, waging wars of persecution against some of the world’s poorest and weakest individuals).
-GBV
@V.Arnold,
Ah, and since you’ve been out for 11+ years, I suppose that’s a reasonable argument that things will continue to go well for you, eh? Because certainly nothing will change wherever you are located…
To be clear, it’s not that I’m suggesting I’m not fucked – I know at the very least I there’s change coming my way and I need to prepare for it, but I’m also suggesting that perhaps most of us (if not all of us?) are fucked regardless of what choices we make due to the magnitude of the predicament we’ve created. Those who stay will likely have to revolt, live a lie or die, and those who go are trusting in the goodness of the people in their newly chosen home not to treat them as outsiders when inevitable collapse finally arrives.
As a young Canadian, I’m pretty big on multiculturalism. I could, like you, say things have been going swimmingly here in Toronto now for 100+ years, and thus they will continue to do so. But I know history suggests that isn’t true – not only is Toronto more of “balkanized” metropolis where minorities tend to gather with those who share their culture (sadly, in places where poverty is also more obvious), but when harsher times arrive old wounds will resurface and people’s distrust of other cultures/communities will return.
That’s not me spreading fear, but the human condition demonstrated over thousands of years of history, and I see nothing that suggests it will be any different this time around (for all our knowledge, sometimes I lament that mankind is more ignorant, arrogant and unwise than they ever have been before).
To my knowledge, there are no western Anglo-saxon / Caucasian countries that have already collapsed and have moved to a standard of living that is anywhere close to realistic – the only places I see this is in third-world countries that I identified above where I would be a visible minority/outsider. The only other place that it could be argued this might be happening would be in small transition/prepper communities that seem to be forming in small pockets throughout North America and other western countries; but whether they will grow into something more or be extinguished by an increasingly oppressive government is hard to say at this time.
Bottom line – makes no sense to me to flee what small community and family resources I do have in Canada to go somewhere that I’m a complete outsider, particularly if it is a location that has endured several years of exploitation by North American / Western culture, or one with huge divides in wealth and risk to their food/water/resource supplies.
That being said, if you have any insight/advice on how to go about building a strong community and sense of culture in non-Westernized, post-collapse (or “collapse-irrelevant”, if it was never overly developed and exploited in the first place) haven, please do share. Most of the people I’ve met who have “fled” the westernized world to live in better environs are those who are young, poor and living hand-to-mouth in backpacker dens (lots of ideas, yet no action / results) or those older, despicable human beings who relocate somewhere that their money can go further and live off their pension (that was made off the backs of others our Empire oppressed, or future generations, no less… and they have the gall to suggest they “earned” it) and think their newly adopted community actually has some sort of love/respect for them simply because they’ve got US dollars in their pockets and the indigenous people do not, further exploiting them through their ill-gotten wealth.
-GBV
@V.Arnold,
“If one is in Europe, U.S.A., Canada, Britain? Then leave as soon as possible. It may give you choices not available in the west in the near future.”
Care to expand on this line of reasoning?
My biggest concern with relocation is that it often seems poorly thought out (in my opinion). Predominantly Anglo-saxon / Caucasian westerners have been at the top of the hill for a good many years, and unfortunately we’ve made a pretty bad name for ourselves in most other places that are not predominantly populated Anglo-saxon / Caucasian westerners (e.g. South America, South-east Asia, India, Africa… basically everywhere, as our Empire exploits virtually everyone who is not us).
While I’m sure people think places like Thailand, Peru, Brazil, Mexico, Morocco, Kenya, etc. are very lovely places to live/visit and the people treat you well there now, that might not always be the case. When the chips start to fall for the West, perhaps old grudges will be settled; years of exploitation will be paid back against any westerner that an upset local can get his/her hands on.
If one heavily integrates themselves into the community through marriage and genuine philanthropy, one may find themselves not as susceptible to these risks… but even in those cases you’ll always be an outsider to that culture as it is not your own and they know that just as well as we do (even if we are blind to that fact at times).
Another large concern is that the world is grossly overpopulated, and food production is constantly at risk of collapsing to levels that cannot sustain the world’s current population. I see far greater risk of food scarcity (and thus riots, violence, chaos) in some of the places I’ve mentioned above than in the near-dictatorial western nations.
Basically, I’m of the mind that there will be very few places to hide and wait for the storm to blow over when things finally start falling apart…
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.Oh noes…
Ilargi, you’ve been ZeroHedged…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-22/janet-yellen-insult-americans
How can an Automatic Earth article be featured on ZH?
I go there for my daily dose of hyperinflation fear mongering, “buy gold” advice, over-the-top statements and dark humour… not for sensible big-picture analysis (which I come here for).To quote the great George Costanza…. “worlds are colliding!”
Cheers,
GBV“When are they gonna get to the fireworks factory!?! *cries*”
– Milhouse Van HoutenSo tired of waiting for real estate to collapse in Canada 🙁
Cheers,
VariableWow, been a year and I didn’t even seen your very insightful comments!
“I put a huge premium on mobility and adaptability in these precarious times. I will only buy a property I can afford to walk away from and start anew somewhere else. And at current Ponzi prices, I could not walk away from most of these properties.”
Agree wholeheartedly with this.
Plus the fact that I’m now starting to freak out about methane levels in the Northern Hemisphere, mobility and adaptability could literally be the difference between life and death…Speaking of which, if anyone has a link to Nicole’s view on Near-Term Extinction (NTE) theories, it would be appreciated (if memory serves correctly, I think she’s not in agreement with the likes of what Guy McPherson is spouting all over YouTube, dastardly ruffian that he is… but I think what I read was more about a spat between Nicole and Guy than the actual reasons why NTE theories are unsound…)
Cheers,
Variable@Diogenes,
“Once you understand what science has established…”
This “science” cult you speak of sounds very interesting. Where do I sign up? Is there a secret handshake? Do I get a special ring? 🙂
Religion, science, philosophy, flying spaghetti monsters… all just constructs we use to perceive the natural world? Maybe yes, maybe no…
Sorry, I know this doesn’t add much to the conversation…
Ilargi, any updates on how Nicole is doing out at Atamai?
Cheers,
VariableCurious how one “gets on” with their life? I don’t know what else I’d be doing differently if I didn’t believe collapse was imminent/already begun.
I’d like to think that people here aren’t avoiding huge debts, making promises they can’t keep, starting conflicts (wars) they shouldn’t, and basically raping the natural environment for short-term gain simply because they think collapse is coming. If that were the case, I would hope that everyone would always live like today is the last day before collapse… at least then we’d behave like a responsible/moral society.
Cheers,
Variable@Diogenes Shrugged,
Not sure I completely understood everything from your response, but I will touch on this:
“Change will not come democratically. It makes no difference at all whether a majority of people understands things. No difference at all. Sorry.”
I would agree that change won’t come about through the “democratic” system we have today, or through any means of peaceful voting. When push comes to shove, people will vote with their fists and blood will run in the streets.
But the point is that change will come. It absolutely matters that people understand things; they will not act until they understand that they must. As long as they continue to harbour some delusion that government will save them if they maintain their complacency, nothing will change. That’s not to suggest that trend will continue forever.
Also, those of us who “understand” have no responsibility to change the system forcefully – it would be a form of coercion or tyranny to try to force people to think the way we do, regardless if they understand or not. All we can do (or are responsible for) is be good stewards of our vision for the future and hope people will come to the realizations we have in due time.
Cheers,
Variable@Diogenes Shrugged,
“Besides, most people don’t even have the time to “look on,” much less do something about it.”
Well, that sounds like rational denial if I’ve ever heard it. I guess African Americans were far too busy working during the period of American slavery to “look on” and do anything about it, the Germans during WWII were too busy with their lives to do anything about the imprisonment of marginalized peoples (Jews, homosexuals, etc.), the people of energy-rich America were far too busy to do anything about illegal/immoral wars during the Vietnam-era and/or Iraq-era, etc.
The information is out there for people who want to find it and understand it. The sad truth is that a) they’d rather not, or b) they prioritize everything else in their lives as being more important to use what time they do have in their lives.
I disagree there isn’t time/money or a “way” to look on – it’s happening right now, slowly as as cheaply as possible, through the dissemination of information (some of it disinformation, as you’ve rightly pointed out), and thousands if not millions of people adding their viewpoints/understanding to the collective conscious. Basically, an additive but frustratingly slow process.
But all roads lead to Rome, and eventually everyone will stand on their own personal precipice of realizing the degree of financial rigging/illegal & immoral wars/energy depletion/etc. in our society. Only those with the highest degree of mental willpower (who weren’t the first trailblazers to push themselves to see something was wrong with the system) will be able to resist these realities through self-inflicted mental gymnastics, lying to themselves, and embracing delusional fantasies.
All that being said, I do sympathize for the frustration you feel for how long this giant lie is taking to unravel. The waiting is the hardest part.
Cheers,
-VariableI believe Diogenes raises very valid questions in regards to firearms. Unfortunately, one of the few areas I don’t totally see eye-to-eye with TAE is their view on self-defense and to a larger degree, the necessity and unavoidable nature of violence.
If Michael Reynolds’ point is that violence against ones neighbors s foolish, its a very valid point. But firearms are one of the most important tools man has created, despite the fact they can be used for less than good intentions. Obviously there are clear benefits for the purpose of hunting or protection against nature, as well as against “marauders” or someone with violent intentions towards you, as pointed out by Diogenes. And as safe as a community is, an unarmed community may potentially just be the illusion of safety when a group of armed individuals shows up on that community’s doorstep.
I appreciate that TAE proposes constructive and non-violent solutions, but if we really are facing resource shortages combined with a population far beyond the Earth’s carrying capacity then I can’t help but point out that the same “musical chairs” scenario TAE has pointed out with regards to financial assets may also take place with the necessities of life (e.g. food, water, medicine).
@John Day,You’re correct to suggest everyone can have their own thoughts on self-defense, violence and gun ownership. But then again, people are free to think that our current system is sustainable and that debt can grow forever. That doesn’t necessarily mean those thoughts/beliefs are correct or will have positive results.
There are some who suggest that being able to defend oneself is a moral obligation – by not being able to defend yourself, you place that responsibility on others. I find this line of thinking interesting when you also consider all of the instances of mass murders / shootings as of late… notice that violent individuals never walk into a police station and start shooting up police officers; they choose soft and defenseless targets (e.g. schools, movie theaters, malls) where carnage can be maximized. I would suspect that a small rural community that espouses peaceful gun-free solutions may also be viewed as soft / defenseless target, regardless if that is the case or not.
I’m certainly not advocating violence or suggesting anyone obsess over it, but I think that there are some dangers in relation to the future predicted by TAE that need to be realistically addressed.
While learning about permaculture and growing one’s own food, learning firearm safety may also be a wise decision for the future.
Cheers,
-Variable😐
“So yeah, plenty of pressure on me – so much so, my life is effectively over.”
Well now… that seems overly dramatic. I’m sure your life is still continuing along, and likely better off than many people living in Greece, Ukraine, Thailand or very poor places like parts of China, India, the Philippines or all over the African continent. Even if your life was effectively over, well, consider the opportunity you have in front of you – the chance to build a new life rather than be trapped as a wage slave for whatever time left you do have remaining.
My parents have been renting the last 3 years based on the information/warnings I’ve provided, much of which as been from the Automatic Earth. They pine for home ownership and regret not holding on to their property (it had a hot tub – so relaxing!) an extra year or two, but they also realize their bank balance has been growing since they downsized from a granite counter-top / stainless steel / vaulted ceiling monstrosity (complete with insane mortgage) to a simple townhouse closer to where they work. It also gave them the freedom to travel more, to pursue educational degrees they hadn’t finished, start to focus on health & wellness, and spend more time with family members – something I’m incredibly grateful for.
“…why she cannot do this and answer for some things that went nowhere near what was expected, for the life of me, I simply cannot understand.”
Yes, this has become abundantly apparent.
For someone who claims they recognize they made their own decisions and will assume responsibility for their actions, you’re certainly very adamant to have someone other than yourself apologize for those actions.
-Variable
From that same thread in the comments section:
—————————————————————————————————————
Stoneleigh said…
Anon @5:46,“You and Stoneleigh started TAE with some interesting ideas. It’s now become dogma. Your minds and your breadth of intellect are as closed and shallow as the powers-that-be you continually rant against.”
The ideas have not changed because our predicament has not changed. We are still trying to warn people as we have always done. Are the ideas less interesting than they used to be? They certainly conflict with received wisdom at the moment, which some people interpret as us being impervious to evidence. Actually it’s us not swinging with the herd in its endless tug-of-war between fear and greed, panic and complacency
“And you wonder why TAE is an also-ran in the financial blogosphere?”
If we are also-rans it would be because we don’t pick out investment suggestions for people. We tell people to get out of the markets and stay on the sidelines in cash unless they’re aggressive speculators. That doesn’t make commissions for anyone and it doesn’t provide an outlet for predatory greed. Rather than being structured as an investment site, we are a public service trying to help ordinary people to hang on to what they have, in order to minimize suffering as much as we can.
“You are not prophets. You are not psychics. You are doing what all of us in this space do: projecting your best guess as to what lies before us.”
We have never claimed to be prophets. We are simply sharing what we know as a result of years and years of reading and analysis. Feel free to disregard our worldview if you think it too dogmatic. There are many sites that will offer contrasting views, along with specific investment advice. Bear in mind that every one of those sites is trying to sell financial services of some kind.
We do make our arguments again and again, but that is because the same questions come up multiple times and the answers have not change despite the fluctuations of the market and the counter-productive government interventions.
—————————————————————————————————————
Wake up and smell what you’re shoveling, friend.
-Variable
I had the privilege of seeing Nicole speak at Georgian College in Barrie, I believe in 2011. I was a big TAE follower going into that session, so I knew what I would likely hear, but was blown away by the manner in which Nicole presented the material (and have since bought the World of Change download, though it is not nearly as moving as an in-person Nicole lecture).
While I can understand your frustration that things haven’t “fallen apart” yet, I don’t recall Nicole ever putting a fast and hard date on any of this. In fact, I believe she’s maintained that collapse is imminent but will likely take place over a long period of time in a period of stops and starts. See here:
https://fromalpha2omega.podomatic.com/entry/2013-07-12T16_35_32-07_00This is very much in alignment with The Long Descent by John Michael Greer of The Archdruid Report fame. Other great writers also touch on collapse, whether societal or from an energy perspective, such as Richard Heinberg, James Kunstler and Dmitri Orlov. Nicole was a great “jumping off” point or “inoculation” of what is to come – an incredible overview of the system in which I exist, how it functions, and where it is starting to fail – but there are a lot of others out there with similar narratives that are worth looking at as no one person is an oracle and see the future completely.
None of these individuals, Nicole in particular, promised anyone they would wake up one morning and find houses for cents on the dollar for their disciples to buy up (particularly without huge ramifications to the system/society in which we live). Nor did they promise anyone could live a lavish lifestyle of luxury for their financial prudence and/or delaying gratification of owning a home. All they have said is that collapse is imminent (or underway), and that those who don’t prepare will be far worse off than those that do. By taking this time now to make ourselves more sustainable, we can proactively address problems that are on their way and can no longer be avoided (a few more can kicks here and there may happen, as they likely have since 2009, but each kick has cost society something and those costs are mounting).
You seem to be waiting for something that quite frankly isn’t going to happen. Worse, you sound like you have people who you care about also waiting for something you have promised them. I’m not sure if there is any solution to your predicament, as the way you’ve managed those loved ones (and perhaps your own?) expectations has pushed you into a corner where something has to happen *NOW* or else you have to change the path on which you are on.
We all likely suffer from something similar to what you are going through. Even now I find myself struggling to hold onto the job I have that allows me to continue to be a “functioning” member of society and afford its extreme costs. I’ve put off major milestones in my life – relationships and marriage are particularly difficult when all you can promise a perspective spouse is 20 years of less, not more – and I’ve foregone the profits I’ve seen friends make off their homes, rental homes and the stock market because in the long term I believe what TAE has presented and I know these are all short-term solutions and will not be sustainable.
Nobody gets anything for free in life. Either you accept that you can enjoy life now and pay up in the future, or you can sacrifice now to hopefully offset future hardships.
As stated before, do what you believe. Regardless if Nicole promised anything or not, she can’t help you at this point. You have to help yourself.
-Variable
“Life is a gamble. Do what makes you happy. Because, in the end, we are all dead anyway.”
+1
I might also add that, as a rule of thumb, people should do what they believe in. Those who come here every day to read TAE, agree with what it has to say only to then turn around and take on a 30-year mortgage (deeply entrenching themselves in debt) are incredibly hypocritical as that seems to fly in the face of the message of sustainability TAE tries to promote.
You sound like my friend’s wife when we all sat down over a bottle of wine and talked collapse. She was adamant that no matter what, she and her husband (my friend) would always find work because they weren’t quitters and they were winners, not losers. No matter what I said she couldn’t comprehend the idea that there could be a time that no matter how hard she tried and no matter what she did there wouldn’t be a job (or at least a job that pays anything substantial) for her or her husband to get.
Don’t get me wrong – it’s not an insult, but a compliment in so much that I do appreciate her strong spirit and belief in herself and her husband. It’s the kind of attitude we need more of to be sure. That being said, she was also naive to think that no matter what happens she’ll always be in control of her life – that kind of thinking suggests she has the blinders on and isn’t at all prepared for the future and how much worse it could be.
Some of your arguments may be true about buying homes with cash, living frugally, etc. But at the end of the day you’re basically arguing that you’re solvent now, so you will continue to be solvent. Your prudence and planning may all be for naught if you’re not looking to the horizon and seeing that changes for the worse could be heading your way.
Lastly, even if you and your family do hold onto jobs, consider all those you had to step over to secure those jobs. People will be going hungry while you get whatever little you can. I think part of the message at TAE is to disconnect from our current “rat race” social system and to start living a sustainable existence in sustainable communities… which I’m not sure is compatible with a hyper-competitive fight to the bottom of who can live the most frugally while trying to maintain our unsustainable system.
What are you actually looking for here at TAE?
Nobody knows exactly how the future will play out, but we’re all accountable for our own decisions. Nobody forced you to do anything, though I would recommend you read bluebird’s post above and follow that advice.
Basically, do what you *believe* is right and take ownership of the choices you make. Nobody can help you otherwise.
Cheers,
-Variable@Ilargi & Nicole,
Wow, 40+ responses! I think it might be wise to suggest Nicole is leaving TAE every month or so to pull people out of the woodwork and get the community engaged, as the number of comments can wane here from time to time… 🙂
All kidding aside, I think a lot of the conversation is also around Atamai. Bill Watson’s mention of Ahika is pretty fascinating, and I wonder if Nicole would feel up to identifying some of the more prominent permaculture-based / eco-based villages and the challenges each have faced. Or in other words, what has worked and what has not? It would be a great reference for others who are starting similar communities in the future (note – if such comparative literature / discussion already exists and someone could posts links to it, I believe it would be very helpful).
I’m up in Canada, but I check Zillow from time to time. I’m not sure if I’m not using it right, but I’ve seen homes throughout the lower Appalachians (TN, KY, NC, SC) as well as Ohio and Michigan for a song and a dance. Granted, they’re not the nicest looking places, but in they go for $50k – $100k USD when similar homes on similar-sized properties in NZ or Canada go for $300k+!
No clue where you are located but if you’re just waiting for collapse to come to you so you can cash in on a cheap doomsday homestead, than perhaps you need to re-examine your plans.
My plans aren’t altogether different from yours, but I’ve had to a) lower my standards and expectations for what kind of home I’m searching for, b) research the areas that are affordable now in Ontario (not many!) and evaluate the risks/hazards which exist (e.g. nuclear plants, flooding, crime & nearby prisons, level of government influence), c) determine what industries exist in those communities and what skills/knowledge may be valuable (and start to learn that knowledge / practice those skills), and d) accept the fact that any of my solutions are likely to be based on the concept of a multi-generational pact whereby my families finances (and unfortunately, siblings debt) are combined and responsibilities are shared.
Even with all those concessions, I’m lucky if I can find a property or two per week that actually would meet my & my family’s needs (and that’s during high house selling season; I think I found about 3-5 worthwhile properties over the entire winter, which was disheartening to say the least). Most of them are snapped up so quickly because debt financing is still in place and credit is still stupid cheap (1.99% variable rate mortgages here in Ontario if you want them!), so every Tom, Dick and Harry rushes in to bid up the price to the point I would have to go into debt if I wanted to compete with their offers.
Its at that point I have to realize that now is just not the time to buy – until people have to buy with their actual savings as opposed to borrowing insane amounts of cash, it is unlikely I will find a “good deal” on a good property. I counsel my family by explaining the need for patience, and try to sell them on the idea of changing our lifestyle completely to prepare for the future that is approaching rather than promising them a glorious future where they can have the house they want on the cheap. Not sure if that is an option / possibility for you, but I hope so otherwise you may be faced with further difficulties in the future regardless of how quickly and how far housing prices fall…
Cheers,
VariableWith regards to “cashing out”, I thought Nicole had sold her Ontario property and was moving with her family to NZ. From the sounds of it, that’s not the case and this is just a period of transition, but thanks for the clarification.
Nicole, still interested in your view on Canada’s future if you have a moment. I too find myself worrying about living next door to American imperialism…
Cheers,
Variable
