Variable81

 
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  • in reply to: Fukushima – some bad and some good news #8116
    Variable81
    Participant

    Semi-related to this topic…

    https://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/06/why-the-ocean-may-not-adequately-dilute-the-radiation-from-fukushima.html

    300 tons sounds like a lot, but a friend pointed out that’s only an Olympic-sized swimming pool of water that is 30x – 60x above the “safe” level of radiation every week (“only”…)

    Anyways, I don’t know if his math is correct nor how devastating that really is. Has anyone seen a spectrum of the outcomes of this situation, from least to most “bad” (i.e. best cast vs. worst case scenarios)?

    It would be nice to put realistic boundaries on just how bad Fukushima could be for humanity…

    Cheers,
    -Variable

    in reply to: Might be losing my grip – how long to hold on? #8115
    Variable81
    Participant

    Thanks for all the feedback everyone.

    I’ve actually gotten quite lucky and I think I’ve bought myself another 8 months of hiding within my labyrinthine organization and avoiding detection (at least of the negative kind, anyway).

    Hopefully I’ll be able to use that time to put away a few more dollars for a rainy day (or the coming deluge!), and perhaps enroll in a small engine repair course as to at least have some skills other than pushing pencils and papers around on my desk.

    Land is still well out of my reach, but if the Canadian housing market would hurry up and collapse… well, one day at a time I suppose!

    Cheers,
    -Variable

    in reply to: Capitalism, A Norwegian Rat And Some Cockroaches #8076
    Variable81
    Participant

    “The only things that make life worth while are the ones you can NOT measure”

    Everything is measurable Ilargi. Maybe not in dollar terms, which is what you’re rallying against, but perhaps in terms of preference or personal value. Any experience I ever had (love, sorrow, a plain happy moment) can be compared to another one, and thus I can place “value” on it by determining which I appreciated more and/or wanted more of.

    Also, “dollarizing” something isn’t necessarily a sign of lack of values or moral bankruptcy, it is just a manner in which some choose to measure their personal beliefs in a way others might be able to relate to.

    Example – I “dollarize” my decisions and come to the conclusion that murdering another individual would be at a cost of $1,000,000 (a sum I’m likely never to see; though if I really wanted to be one of those people who thinks they would never commit murder, I could just make the cost some ridiculous number like $100 trillion) due to the horrible impact to society and the psychological impact it would have on me. Then along comes Joe Blow who doesn’t think of things in terms of dollars, but has no problem ending a life the minute that person inconveniences him.

    Which of us is morally bankrupt? The one that has used a construct (dollars or otherwise) to measure their own morality and discover what they truly value, or the person who has no measurement system in place yet seems to have no qualms with doing what others would find morally reprehensible?

    I’d have to think that Joe Blow is more morally bankrupt than I am; he is just less aware of how little value he places on the act of murder in comparison to me.

    Also, people who cannot place value on things (i.e. their children, the environment, a honey bee, etc.) strike me as inflexible individuals – there may be a time when a choice has to be made, as undesirable as it may be, between two horrible outcomes. I’d like to see how those who cannot place value on things would react, as I think they’d quickly figure out a construct which would allow them to weigh out those two choices based on their values.

    I’m also reminded of Bartlett’s exponential growth video I just re-watched the other day…

    “…democracy cannot survive overpopulation;
    Human dignity cannot survive [overpopulation];
    Convenience and decency cannot survive [overpopulation];
    As you put more and more people into the world,
    The value of life not only declines, it disappears.
    It doesn’t matter if someone dies,
    The more people there are, the less one individual matters.”

    So is Asimov morally bankrupt, or just realistic?

    Maybe I’m wrong, but feel like you’re barking up the wrong tree on this on Ilargi – hoping this piece was not just a vehicle used to rage all over Gates and his like? Certainly the world seems more and more immoral these days, and I wish that would change (for the better)… but measuring ones values, to me, doesn’t seem like the cause of our immorality. In fact, it seems like a way to measure just how immoral we really are.

    Also, consider that putting dollar values on the destruction of the environment may actually grab people’s attention and make them realize what they otherwise would not as they drift though the world as Sleepers, further contributing to the tragedy of the commons. If that were to hold true, than I’d think encouraging people to think about their morality/values and how they assign cost would be a good thing…

    Cheers,
    Variable

    in reply to: What Ben Bernanke Is Really Saying #8011
    Variable81
    Participant

    “The Road”

    Well, here’s to hoping you’re wrong p01…
    That’s about as depressing as it gets.

    in reply to: TAE 3.0: What do you want to see? #8006
    Variable81
    Participant

    “All these moments will be lost in time like tears in the rain. Time… to die…”

    in reply to: QE, The Velocity of Money And Dislocated Gold #7905
    Variable81
    Participant

    Completely anecdotal, but I’ve noticed the same phenomenon happening on some of the bulletin boards where I buy/sell/trade goods.

    Lots of quick sales and/or trades + cash used to occur up until a few months ago. Almost suddenly I noticed the volume of transactions drop off a cliff and many products seemed stuck in limbo with no buyers.

    I had a few items I was trying to move, and despite the number of attempts to offer very lucrative “trade + cash” deals, I was almost always rebuffed with “sorry, just looking for cash”.

    I’ve even noticed my contemporaries/friends tightening up on the amounts they spend when we go out, or avoiding going out all together. Yet they don’t want to admit to me (or more importantly, themselves) that all the doom/gloom I’ve espoused over the past 2 years may finally be coming to a head… but their actions speak volumes.

    I can only assume people are starting to tighten up and/or deleverage. Still lots of “greater fools” out there, but pretty soon I think even they will start to figure out what’s going on.

    Cheers,
    Variable

    in reply to: TAE 3.0: What do you want to see? #7891
    Variable81
    Participant

    @Viscount,

    I came across a Resiliency Assessment tool on Transition Guelph that might address some of the questions/issues you are raising.

    Maybe the TAE community can take a look and see if it’s something we should include in TAE 3.0 (or something similar):

    https://transitionguelph.org/HRA.php

    Cheers,
    Variable

    in reply to: Playing Russian Roulette With Someone Else's Head #7848
    Variable81
    Participant

    @Professor,

    Just curious how you see a cartel collapse on its own?

    I was actually having a discussion with an ex-Bell employee about the cartel which is the Canadian telecom industry. It occurred to me that Canadian competition laws are actually anti-competitive in that they stop the natural progression of things (i.e. a bunch of small competitive firms will compete and the few strongest will survive, at which point a cartel can form until a monopolist can emerge and eventually collapse, blown into a bunch of little firms that take its place as the cycle starts all over again) by trying to prevent the cartels from getting any stronger and pushing new players (Wind, Public, Mobilicity) into the mix.

    I suggested this just keeps Canadian telecom in a state of limbo where little ever changes and most innovation is stifled to ensure cartel profits are maximized. Were the Canadian government to get out of the way and allow for a monopoly to form, things might get worse but at the same time the market might eventually turn its back on said monopoly and look to innovative new solutions to communication, killing off the monopolistic firm at the same time.

    Perhaps I’m wrong, but that “cycle” which applies to firms in any given marketplace seems rather self-evident. It would also seem it applies to more than just firms, but any social orders/organizations and even living organisms themselves.

    One wonders if TAE, as a social order, will be one of those small-yet-competitive players once the bigger cartel/monopoly (i.e. world government) blows itself apart?

    Cheers,
    Variable

    in reply to: TAE 3.0: What do you want to see? #7847
    Variable81
    Participant

    @bluebird,

    My concern is that as people become more afraid they will actually be less open minded to the advice of those who frequent TAE, as the TAE doesn’t offer much along the lines of quick, easy solutions that allow them to continue along the lines of myopic, thoughtless and consumption-driven living (sorry, being a bit harsh towards the sheeple this morning, aren’t I?).

    I see them becoming more open minded to demagogues who promise them a return to the affluence they lost and point the finger at those who are to blame (i.e. anyone but the demagogue him/herself or the throng of sycophants who follows them, of course). These demagogues might even point to groups of individuals like TAE’ers who look to have suffered less than the masses (because they had the good sense to prepare – but obviously demagogues won’t spend any time talking about that) as the enemy should TAE’ers question the legitimacy of said demagogue or the sermons s/he espouses.

    In short, Krugmanites crucifying those who denounce debt along the freeway to New (Rome) York? Or worse, Garth Turner’s Fourth Reich of “blog dogs” that punishes any who would either a) buy a house at the peak of a bubble, or b) question why Turner would advise selling one’s home if highly mortgaged only to then jump into a just-as-risky (if not more risky) financial mmarket?

    I suspect those two scenarios are a bit over-the-top, but hopeful it illustrates the idea of a future where demagogues capture the imagination of people who’s lives have been shattered by economic collapse and deflation/depression.

    @rheba,

    Further to your point I’d love to see articles at TAE which start to focus on what we can do and how we can (should?) live our lives, but I hope the article authors will start to take into consideration more the generational and wealth differences of individuals within the TAE community (i.e. solutions that might work for 50-somethings near retirement may not work for 20-somethings that have just succeed in liquidating their debts and have only begun to build up assets).

    I’m not sure if people at TAE are familiar with the book The Fourth Turning, but I do appreciate its attempt to show inter-generational differences and how each generation will react to a Crisis when it arises (as it impacts each generational cohort at a different time in their lives).

    I also really enjoy The Archdruid Report and the thought-provoking posts of JM Greir. I’d be very interested to know if Stoneleigh/Ilargi have corresponded with him in the past and how closely their views on the future are aligned, as JMG has of late been emphasizing the fatalistic/apocalyptic obsession seen in the Peak Oil camp as opposed to the slow decline of humanity that he believes we face. I wonder if he sees TAE as a bunch of doomers or if he generally agrees that there will be a sharp financial collapse (arguably near-apocalyptic for those who never suffered financial/economic hardships yet in their lives?) followed by a slow entropic decline out of the Age of Hydrocarbons and back to an agrarian-style civilization.

    Perhaps I’ll comment on JMG’s blog and see if I can discover his awareness and/or views on the TAE community.

    Cheers,
    Variable

    in reply to: TAE 3.0: What do you want to see? #7822
    Variable81
    Participant

    @ilargi,

    “And no money to hire people to help us do it”
    What I’d love to see is something along the lines of Kickstarter where we can see the goal we’re working towards, what it costs, and how close we are to that goal (e.g. “$5,000 to hire a graphic designer”)

    As it stands, it’s just sort of a “we’re TAE and we need your money!”. Not to suggest the money isn’t going where it is needed or isn’t being used well, but it’s hard to connect with the outcomes of the donations we provide.

    Again, the DVDs are a great idea as they’re something tangible that help educate the community while at the same time putting $$$ in the TAE coffers.

    @Viscount,

    I think you’re on the same page I as am when I start thinking about the actionable vs. the Big Picture. I’d love to see something like you’ve proposed (educational piece by Stoneleigh on the operational side of sustainable living), as there are tons of “survivalist” videos for free on YouTube and whatnot, but not as much in the vein of “preparedness”.

    Identifying the hard goods & tools, or as Viscount put it “the mechanics of alternative heating/cooling/cooking/electric generation”, one would seriously need to consider as well as the risks surrounding them (nothing as complicated as FMEA, but just what one needs to be aware of if converting over to propane/wood/solar/etc. or by producing one’s own eggs/poultry/etc.) would be helpful.

    Like the World of Change DVD set, I think this is something that could be sold at a premium to cover the costs of production as well as serve as a tool to generate income for TAE?

    @all,

    Lastly, this is a question I’ve been sitting on for a long time as it never felt appropriate to ask it (and still doesn’t, but I think it needs to be raised at some point). I love that TAE tries to position itself as an “inoculation” against fear & ignorance of what’s happening in the world and to try to prepare people as much as possible to mitigate some very unhappy circumstances in the future.

    Unfortunately, TAE is a small community within the grand scheme of humanity, and many will not receive the inoculation that TAE provides. Thus, while we can thoughtfully/intellectually discuss issues that will no doubt lead to panic, fear and ultimately conflict/violence I think it’s important to recognize that the population at large may not approach these issues with the same level-headedness we see here on TAE.

    So I suppose the question(s) would be:

    a) When will it be appropriate to more openly discuss the panic, fear, conflict and violence we’re likely to witness as deflation takes hold; and

    b) What steps can one start to take to mitigate these issues?

    Cheers,
    Variable

    in reply to: Deflation By Any Other Name Would Smell As Foul #7821
    Variable81
    Participant

    Might gold (and possibly silver) end up having more value in economies which may turn their backs on the USD sooner than other nations?

    I’m thinking China/Russia were political tensions to escalate, as well as any nations that are currently non-friendly with the US (Cuba? Iran?).

    Also noticed this on ZeroHedge the other day:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost

    To be fair, ZH is a gold bug haven. But had to wonder what would be the impact if many gold miners start going out of business – wouldn’t that eventually drive up gold price due to scarcity (i.e. aggregate prices falling due to deflationary effects – macro – but gold’s value within aggregate prices growing due to less of it being available – micro)? Even as the price of gold falls, demand seems to keep growing…

    in reply to: TAE 3.0: What do you want to see? #7792
    Variable81
    Participant

    Like you said Sid, a big thanks to Stoneleigh & Illarghi for all the work they’ve done on TAE and knowledge they’ve shared – certainly helped in waking me up from my sleeper-stupor.

    But when it comes to TAE 3.0, what I’d like to see might be a little controversial. Basically, I’d like to see less of what TAE has been about for the past 5 years – “The Big Picture”.

    It’s not that I don’t think “The Big Picture” isn’t important – it is, incredibly so – but I feel as if TAE has covered it every which way they can. There’s not much more to say about it, and it’s now to the point that Stoneleigh is travelling the world, pushing what could be considered a bit of a ‘canned’ message.

    I have to ask myself what is the benefit of this?
    Obviously enlightening more individuals to the risks that face the world is a good thing, but does it come at the cost of less time/effort being invested in the already-existing TAE community? And are these tours helping increase TAE membership/discourse in any meaningful/measurable way?

    Even if it were, I guess I’d still be pointing out my displeasure that TAE feels like it is stagnating in that very little is being offered here (from my POV) aside from a commentary from Illarghi about our descent into depression.

    What I’d love to see is more life blown into TAE by focusing on things that can be done to be a stronger community of people who “get it”. Some questions I hope everyone at TAE will consider:

    Are there transition town and/or survivalist networking opportunities within our communities that are coming up which we should be aware of? TAE could play a role in connecting members between those groups to get a cross-flow of ideas going.

    Are there funding opportunities that TAE can present which can benefit the entire community? The 4-hour DVD set is a great first step, but I think there are individuals within the TAE community who have access to resources and may be wanting to invest them into tangible community-based initiatives but don’t know how to get started in doing so.

    Is there anyway to teach members within the TAE community the skills they’ll need to survive the hardships that are coming? While we still have access to the internet we should make as much use of it as possible – either providing links to “how to” videos & guides or actually creating them ourselves we can increase the practical knowledge of TAE’ers who want to start building up their practical skills.

    To be fair, perhaps some of these issues have already been addressed at TAE and are floating around somewhere on the website – since the shift to TAE 2.0 I haven’t been as diligent in searching every nook & cranny of this site. But generally I feel that 2.0 gets too much of a bad rap for hamstringing the engagement within the TAE community – again, it’s the feeling that we’re stagnating as a community.

    I love the breadth and depth of knowledge that is frequently shared here on TAE, but for it to survive I think there needs to be a transition from WHAT we need to know to HOW we can start doing something about it.

    Cheers,
    -Variable

    in reply to: De Leverage #7702
    Variable81
    Participant

    I have a bit of a sick curiosity what Europe is going to look like once the real deleveraging starts… :dry:

    in reply to: HELP! Advice on private vaulting services? #7701
    Variable81
    Participant

    Gurusid,

    Thanks for the response.
    I agree that in a Mad Max style collapse money wouldn’t be worth much, if anything. But I try to avoid assuming the collapse will be that bad… even if it goes get to that point I would assume it would be gradual and not overnight, thus a window to spend that cash should hope full exist.

    That being said I agree with all your advice on preparing now.
    I’m doing everything I can to get my hands on supplies, hard goods, knowledge, etc.

    The land is a problem at the moment – hoping the Canadian housing market will soften up very soon. And as for social networks, its basically only immediate family as everyone else who I talk to about this kind of stuff thinks I’m nuts!

    Cheers.

    in reply to: HELP! Advice on private vaulting services? #7692
    Variable81
    Participant

    Skip,

    My thoughts exactly.
    Just like CDIC insurance on my bank accounts, I only expect it to be effective should one bank collapse due to mismanagement / fraud. In a systemic collapse, as Nicole has said many times before, it won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on.

    Insurance on the vault would, in my mind, be the same. If the vaulting company (which in this case is also a huge security company that provides armed guards and armoured truck services) were to go belly up and all else stayed the same, I would expect for the insurance to kick in.

    The moment the system starts to fall apart however, it’s off to the vault to get everything out. Figure it would be better (safer?) to stand in line at a vault than at a bank?

    Cheers.

    in reply to: HELP! Advice on private vaulting services? #7675
    Variable81
    Participant

    @bluebird,

    Ideally it would be within driving distance. If it gets to the point there is no fuel left to buy I don’t know how acceptable paper currency would be (i.e. sounds like a Mad Max scenario).

    Delivery by armoured vehicle is possible, though not without additional cost.

    @Ilargi,

    Appreciate your insight.

    I suspect you are correct that eventually even vaults would be claimed by the Powers That Be. However, do you not think it plausible that the wealthy would hide their wealth in vaults while the average man who keeps his wealth in the bank is fleeced (first, anyway)?

    It was my assumption that, at least for a short time, storing large amounts of cash (upwards of $100k) in a vault may provide more flexibility than the bank. In the event of a bank run, people would be lining up to get what little they can from the banks while the wealthy would be cleaning out their vaults. Seems like a better option for only a small fee.

    I recognize the value in keeping money close to your chest, but surely you and Nicole must recognize the risks involved in having six figures worth of cash in your home…

    Again, this strategy is only meant to give me a short window to gain access to my cash that most bank depositors will not have in a Cyprus-like event or systemic banking collapse. But perhaps I’m off the mark here on this one?

    Any additional thoughts/suggestions you could provide would be greatly appreciated.

    in reply to: HELP! Advice on private vaulting services? #7669
    Variable81
    Participant

    Bluebird,

    Agree it’s not about the amount that can be earned in interest – I’m willing to forego those “gains” to preserve my principal.

    However, what would the benefit be of spreading the principal around many banks if my concern is that all banks are running the risk of systemic failure?

    Being able to take $100 – $300 per day out of 7 banks vs. 1 is better I suppose, but I’m more interested in vaulting as a solution so I can access large sums ($10k+) all at once should the need arise.

    Cheers,
    -Variable

    in reply to: The Lesson From Cyprus: Europe Is Politically Bankrupt #7268
    Variable81
    Participant

    While Europe is clearly the focal point right now, I was hoping TAE could back off of it for a moment to look at what’s going on in the rest of the Western world… say, for example, where Nicole Foss lives:

    https://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2013/03/canada-discusses-forced-depositor-bail.html

    Cheers,
    -GBV

    in reply to: Obama Has Once Last Chance To Become A Great President #6644
    Variable81
    Participant

    “and used in lieu of cash”.

    Sorry, my mistake.

    in reply to: Obama Has Once Last Chance To Become A Great President #6643
    Variable81
    Participant

    @pipefit

    I used to think we were well into a hyperinflationary phase too, until I read Nicole’s views on hyperinflation vs. hyperexpansion. I realized she was right – we’re not in a hyperinflationary phase, which is to suggest money is being printed and circulated at an increasing rate, but in a hyperexpansion where insane amounts of debt are being created and used in lieu of debt.

    Debt is a substitute for money, but it is not money. The two behave differently, especially in terms of how they can be retired/destroyed (read: defaulted on in the case of debt).

    The credit bubble will burst and cheap credit will dry up, causing massive deflation. At that time production will likely collapse as well as credit-driven demand will have also evaporated. At that point I would worry about hyperinflation – money printing (paper bills being technically worth next to nothing other than to burn in fires a la Weimar Republic) at a time when industry output is severely reduced suggests to me the number of $’s will start to vastly outnumber the amount of goods in society (inflationary) after a long depression where people have not had access to money and thus are ready and willing to spend that money (increased velocity of money; again, inflationary).

    Inflationary x inflationary = hyperinflationary?

    So you’ll be right, but you might be wrong first as deflation needs to take hold through a credit collapse before the way is paved for hyperinflation. At least that is my understanding of the Automatic Earth’s view on how things will play out (apologies if I got it wrong?).

    @Ilgari

    “Try 0%”

    Really? I’m a staunch believer in the scenario I proposed above (again, I think it is in line with your beliefs), but even I am unwilling to say 100% that we will have deflation, and is why I own a very small amount of gold and silver as a hedge (as i have few other physical assets and mostly try to sit on cash). “Never say never” and all that…

    Variable81
    Participant

    @g-minor

    Thank you – exactly my point about wood/timber.

    @Viscount St. Albans,

    Not to speak for Stoneleigh, but I might suggest a little something called “integrity”.

    I recognize there are many “lizard brain” individuals out there who will say whatever is necessary to optimize their situation in life.

    But some people just can’t help but see something wrong and want to speak truth to power, call a spade a spade, etc. They accept the consequences of their actions because they choose to live a life of values (or at least less malleable ethics).

    Cheers.

    Variable81
    Participant

    Thanks Nicole.

    With regards to renewables specifically – I’m nervous about the investment cost of say, a solar set-up with marine battery backups should any of the ‘tech’ fail and I not have the resources/skills to repair or replace the system. Perhaps there are more “low-tech” renewable solutions you would suggest instead?

    Wood/timber is the #1 answer that comes to my mind. With land prices (hopefully) falling, my family has been watching for large properties with substantial hardwood resources – hoping that if we go this route, if all else fails at least we won’t freeze in the dark during the winter!

    I’m also going to keep my eyes peeled on this site to see if I can find anything of interest: https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/

    Variable81
    Participant

    @Stoneleigh,

    Nicole, I’m going to go ahead and make the assumption that you practice what you preach and are sitting on some hard cash.

    I don’t know if you’re comfortable in answering this question but I’m curious if there are any examples of goods/items/services/initiatives you are saving your dollars for during the long deflationary winter?

    I think you are more self sufficient than me & my family by orders of magnitude, but it suddenly dawned on me that I’m saving all my cash for… I don’t know what? Obviously for food/water/energy to ride out the deflation, but surely there must be some things that you are not willing to pay the risk premium to own now but will be looking to pick up after prices collapse (unless you truly are 100% self-sufficient – if so, congrats). Just curious to know what those items/things/services might be and your reasoning behind it?

    Also, any thoughts as to where the Canadian dollar should trade in relation to the US dollar? You’ve mentioned that the US dollar is clearly undervalued, and CDN/US parity doesn’t seem to be the norm. Just curious if you have an approximate target for where you think the Canadian dollar could fall to in relation to the US dollar before leveling out. If not, perhaps you can provide some details around the risks that non-US residents may face by sitting on physical US dollars (I am aware that US dollar accounts, at least in Canada, are not covered by CDIC – whatever good CDIC would do in a total financial collapse, of course!).

    As always, I appreciate any feedback you can provide.

    Variable81
    Participant

    @Professorlocknload,

    You’re right that the world is probably awash in .223/9mm, but it is still a ‘consumable’ and those rounds will get used up eventually.

    If we are heading into a Great-er Depression, I suspect many of the enterprises that manufacture .223/9mm/ammo may go bankrupt and any supply that is manufactured will be primarily for military and law enforcement. They may wind up being sold on every black market around the world, but I don’t like my chances of getting them at an affordable price in the future…

    Re:.22’s – yes, absolutely one of the most affordable rounds out there and perfectly able to handle any small rodent problems, though when you get up to coyotes I start to wonder if a .22 is the most humane round to use. The .22 is also a great “trainer” for helping people learn to shoot without breaking the bank. Definitely a versatile round/rifle.

    Re: small gold particles. Very interesting! Though ripping up a 1oz gold coin with tweezers doesn’t strike me as an exact science.

    Thankfully I’m not burdened with enough wealth to have to worry about owning more than an oz or two of gold 😀

    Variable81
    Participant

    @Professorlocknload,

    You’re right that $1.7k of .223 rounds is much heavier than $1.7k of gold from a weight basis – though I think I did point out that one of gold’s strengths is that it is highly concentrated wealth and thus easily transportable.

    I still think .223 rounds are more ‘divisable’ as I’ve never broken down a 1oz gold coin into hundreds of little pieces – I’m sure it could be done and thus I suppose I could learn how to do it, but it doesn’t seem as plausible to me as trading a handful of .223 rounds for a few loaves of bread.

    Also, I believe I might have also been unfairly painted as a ‘gun nut’ or anarchist simply because I referenced rifle rounds. I wasn’t trying to suggest I would use them to “shoot up the law” or anything that extreme – but .223 & .308 rounds are certainly valuable for hunting and varmint/pest control.

    Can’t view the video you embedded – browser doesn’t seem to like it? Sorry.

    And I don’t know what I would do with a full-auto M4 either, aside from getting tossed into a Canadian jail for illegal possession of a prohibited firearm! 🙂

    Variable81
    Participant

    @Anyone else who tends to bring up gold as “real money” without counterparty risk…

    This might just be tired, after-midnight rambling… but isn’t any good/asset that is owned free and clear of debt a possession without counterparty risk and arguably “real money”, or at least “real wealth”?

    Anything I can buy today, including gold, may experience falling prices when deflation starts picking up speed… but that is okay if I own it debt-free as, ideally, I own it because I will need it in the future. The only real value I could see with gold is that it is arguably scarce enough that its value might not collapse as bad as, say, houses and motorized vehicles. Also, gold is highly concentrated thus easy to store/transport.

    However, gold’s benefits of being highly concentrated can also be its curse – having a box full of highly divisable .223 or .308 rifle rounds or a pantry full of freeze-dried food cans may allow you to barter more efficiently and/or effectively than a single 1oz gold coin. I also would worry that there are no guarantees that everyone will value 1oz of gold the same (i.e. I doubt I would trade my last piece of food for all the gold in the world).

    Anyways, I’ve always considered food a better investment than gold… whether hyperinflation drives up the price of food astronomically, or deflation ravages my income so badly I can’t afford to buy food I figure stocking up on it now is a pretty smart investment for the future.

    in reply to: US Hyperinflation Is A Myth #6119
    Variable81
    Participant

    @JZ

    Sorry, but I’m still not seeing the difference beween ‘debt destruction’ (default) and ‘debt forgiveness’ (QE for the masses) save for one would be inherently deflationary while the other would be inherently inflationary.

    Perhaps you can explain what you mean by “uncontrolled inflation is not necessarily a result of debt forgiveness”? The way I see it if a Central Bank prints large sums of money to “forgive” debt of we the little people and prop up asset prices (our houses), they’ve just inflated the amount of money in circulation by handing it over to the creditors who would then use it buy other goods and drive up those asset/good prices (result still equals price inflation).

    As far as moral hazard re: bank bailouts, I can’t say I agree with bailing out banks – but I think it is a bit hypocritcal to criticize bank bailouts only to turn around and suggest a bailout for the masses who borrowed more than they could afford, driving up asset prices and creating debt bubbles.*

    I recognize some (most?) may disagree and point to the human suffering that could be alleviated by granting bailouts to the people, but to me that reeks of a sort of tyranny of the majority who made unwise financial decisions punishing those of us in the minority who did not (I have no debt, but had to work hard and sacrifice much to get to that level of financial security).

    To give a personal example, I have many friends who have started their families and purchased homes, some even going as far as purchasing rental properties in addition to their primary residences as they view themselves to be saavy investors. Most of these friends are highly leveraged and will be wiped out should anything even remotely resembling a 2007/2008 scenario come along again.

    These are friends I care about very much and have known for most of my life. But do I believe they should have some sort of debt forgiveness to save them from financial calamity? No. Do I believe they should be financially wiped out? Absolutely.**

    This speaks to the concept of the moral hazard of any sort of bailout – if you provide it, you only encourage people to continue to go further into debt by making them believe society will protect them should they fall on hard times.

    I’ve played the Cassandra and tried to warn them a million times of the dangers of leverage, cheap credit and asset bubbles but it simply does not seem to stick for most of them… and I have no right, let alone the power, to force them to act in a different manner.

    I suppose it comes down to that you can warn a person not to touch something that is hot, but the only way for them to learn is to let them burn themselves. Unfortunately in this case, “burning themselves” may amount to collapsing our financial system and perhaps parts of society along with it…

    * This actually makes me think I should take a look back at ancient debt jubilees and see who was actually getting bailed out back then – was it just personal debt jubilees, or were organizations/enterprises of the ancient world forgiven as well? A further thought – ancient Rome tried debt jubilees and still saw debt destruction & collapse in the end; if we’ve already done jubilee through bank bailouts, bankruptcy laws, etc. then perhaps debt destruction & collapse is inevitable?

    ** I would draw the line at the concept of “debtor’s prison” or those in debt being rolled into military service, whether friend or foe… Stoneleigh often speaks of it and the concept of it frightens me deeply.

    in reply to: US Hyperinflation Is A Myth #6105
    Variable81
    Participant

    @JZ,

    So “debt destruction” is when I default and do not pay back my loans, but “debt forgiveness” or jubilee would be as Keen proposed – QE for the masses – whereby the Central Banks would print money and give it to me to pay off my debts, thus repairing my balance sheet?

    The only problem I see with that is that it is a form of stealth default. If the Central Bank increases the effective money supply simply so we can pay off our debts, it would result in price inflation as more dollars (instead of electronic credit) would then be chasing the same amount of “stuff”.

    For your consideration I found a 2011 NY Times article by Martin Hutchinson and Robert Cyran that speaks to the numerous issues that a debt jubilee could raise:

    The Downside to a Debt Jubilee

    Good ends do not justify bad means. That philosophical observation applies to proposals for a big American debt jubilee that are now doing the rounds. The basic idea is to slash consumer debt, which is an admirable aim for an overleveraged nation. Household debt is still 90 percent of gross domestic product, down only modestly from the 2008 peak of 100 percent. But even bank-haters should recognize that this cure might be worse than the disease.

    To start, writing off debts would not necessarily increase economic growth. Every liability is also an asset, so while a dollar that is no longer required for debt repayment might add some cents to consumer spending, it is also a dollar cut out of a bank’s capital or of an investor’s net worth — subtracting from resources and confidence.

    And write-offs big enough to change consumer behavior would probably be big enough to destabilize banks. The Federal Reserve or the government would need to help, presumably by injecting newly printed money as capital. Such government control is usually inefficient, and abundant printing of money increases the risk of uncontrolled inflation, which has its own way of making people feel poorer.

    The issue of moral hazard also cannot be ignored. Much of the excess debt was incurred through irresponsible mortgage refinancing, which peaked in 2006 at $322 billion, representing 2.4 percent of G.D.P. The reckless use of houses as A.T.M.’s was a major factor in decapitalizing and destabilizing the American economy. Forgiving such debts will teach the wrong lesson: borrow in haste, repent never.

    Finally, investors would rightly see a jubilee as an attack on property rights. That runs the risk of throwing markets into disarray and discouraging foreign investors from buying assets in the United States. Risk premiums on both debt and equity capital would increase.

    There are better ways to deleverage. Higher inflation does the job more naturally, without invidious choices about whose debt got reduced. But inflation also discourages savers, weakening capital formation. The best way to get debts under control is the hard slog of paying some back and writing the rest off.
    Sound money, including interest rates above inflation, would help by preserving existing capital and promoting savings. After all, capital creation, not its destruction through debt forgiveness, is what makes capitalism work.

    in reply to: US Hyperinflation Is A Myth #6101
    Variable81
    Participant

    @JZ,

    Forgive me if I misunderstand, but what you’re proposing still sounds like deflation, albeit “strategically” and over a longer period of time.

    From what I’ve seen/read, most bubbles pop and crash down (though in a “lightening bolt” fashion as Stoneleigh pointed out) faster than the time it took for them to build up. If you could somehow drag deflation out to be the inverse of the inflationary growth we’ve seen to the system since the early 1980’s then perhaps it wouldn’t be so painful – but the net effect would still be deflationary.

    In other words, we really can’t do much more inflating until we do a whole lot of deflating…

    in reply to: US Hyperinflation Is A Myth #6097
    Variable81
    Participant

    @JZ (and Stoneleigh, should you care to comment),

    Is “debt forgiveness” (i.e. debt jubilee) really a solution?

    I know Steve Keen has proposed it, and I figure he knows his stuff pretty well. But I guess I still fail to understand what the difference between “debt forgiveness” and debt destruction thorough default is.

    Debts are assets to creditors. If you, the debtor, owe me $100,000 and I, the creditor, “forgive” that amount… isn’t the effect still deflationary? $100,000 of wealth would have just evaporated out of the economy…

    in reply to: There's Only One Way Forward For Europe, And This Isn’t It #5823
    Variable81
    Participant

    Sorry, not to be rude… but this seems more like a ‘Commentary’ than a ‘Feature’.

    My understanding was that commentaries would be short articles based on the viewpoint of TAE authors, while features would be more in depth, providing multiple sources, and possibly even educational in nature.

    Perhaps I’ve misunderstood the delineation between the two…

    in reply to: You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved #5779
    Variable81
    Participant

    ilargi post=5462 wrote:

    It’s not so much the patience, there’s some of that here and there from time to time every day. What I do find worrisome is this Groundhog Day theater where we need to explain the most basic things again and again. We should be working and looking forward, not backward, and these sorts of questions make that hard.

    No matter how many times we say that timelines are not our primary focus, sure enough people, who on the surface seem to be intelligent enough, ask for timelines. We can say 1000 times that we don’t see gold as a good investment from our “very long time very deep depression” point of view, but there’s always someone who ignores the fact that that is our point of view and still wants to know what we think of gold tomorrow morning.

    There’s no shortage either of folks who want to time the precise point to shift from gold, or stocks, or you name it, to hoes and heritage seeds, but we’ve already said 1000 and one times that from where we’re sitting, every single day they lose on the purchasing hard goods front is one that will someday hurt something ugly.

    People approach us with their points of view, completely ignore and disregard ours, and still expect answers that fit into theirs. It has a certain comedy quality, granted, but it also has these “gold is higher today than it was yesterday, so you are wrong when you say it will have lost value in 5 years” qualities. Slapstick more than comedy.

    Nicole and I are here to talk to anyone who will listen about what we see, and we’ve been here for years now. Our overall ideas haven’t changed a bit, if only because everything we’ve said would happen, did. Not from the POV of the short attention span crowd perhaps, but then, they’re not the crowd we’re addressing.

    And we’re not about the S&P, or the price of gold, those are just little thingies in the grand scheme of the biggest credit bubble in history deflating, de-bubbling, in the face of which there’s still people, believe it or not, who talk about hyperinflation. That, I find strange.

    We can discuss why we see what we see, but we can’t continue to discuss daily changes in the S&P or gold prices (for the simple reason that TAE is not about those things), accuse us of being wrong in things we’ve said would happen in the longer term future because of these daily changes, and still pretend we have a serious discussion.

    Not that this will add much to the conversation, but I would like to thank Ilgari and the other TAE folk for having patience and keeping a sense of humour about the constant push for short-term/daily price changes by some of the readers.

    I do my best to resist posting short-term/daily price change questions here at TAE as I know that’s not what this blog is here to address. But every so often it’s hard not to ask those sorts of questions, as some of us who have started down this deflationary rabbit hole are not very well endowed financially and large shifts in short-term/daily prices can impact us greatly.

    I continue to try to build up my wealth (thankfully debt-free) as much as I can while gaining possession of some of the hard goods, supplies and skills I hope will help in a deflationary future. But there are days I worry I will get ‘squeezed out” by the system before reaching the point of possessing a sustainable homestead for both myself and my family.

    in reply to: The Global Demise of Pension Plans #5302
    Variable81
    Participant

    Sent an email to the Automatic Earth crew hoping they could provide some advice around the topic of the demise of pensions, but figured I’d field those questions here in the comments section in hopes of getting a response…

    1) At what point does it make sense to “cash out” and actually quit your job to protect (well, access – at least here in Ontario where you can take a payout of something in the neighbourhood of 50% of your pension funds, though taxed of course) your pension?

    2) What kind of arguments would you use with loved ones to convince them their pensions are at risk? Logic doesn’t seem to win most people over in my experience; emotion on the other hand…

    3) And while this is a bit off-topic, does anyone have any opinion on using the vaulting services of security companies as a way to protect their wealth? Besides cash on hand, stocking up on hard goods & food supplies, and Treasury Direct I’m at a loss for places to try to hide my wealth for the coming storm.

    Thanks!

    in reply to: The Extraenvironmentalist Interviews Nicole Foss #1919
    Variable81
    Participant

    A bit more information (from TD Bank) on Canadian treasury bills and US denominated dollar investments here:

    https://www.tdcanadatrust.com/planning/investing-basics/investment-options/money-market-investments/icrcipct.jsp

    in reply to: The Extraenvironmentalist Interviews Nicole Foss #1917
    Variable81
    Participant

    Hoping someone can help me with some of the advice Nicole gave in this interview as well as in other interviews and in the Automatic Earth lifeboat – short term US treasuries.

    My current problem is that most of my ‘wealth’ is tied up in a Locked-In Retirement Plan (LIRA) which prevents me from accessing my money until I am retirement age (unlike an RRSP where you can take the money out whenever you want and only have to pay the taxes on it).

    I may be wrong, but it is my understanding I am not able to use the funds in my LIRA to invest in US treasuries through Treasury Direct. If anyone knows any different, please let me know.

    In addition, I came across this today:

    https://canadianbankrates.ca/treasurybillrates.php

    It suggests that Canadian T-bills can be purchased with US denominated dollars and still be considered Canadian content if held within an RSP.

    Does anyone know the risks I face by purchasing Canadian T-bills in US dollars versus purchasing US T-bills through Treasury Direct?

    My main goal in all of this is to avoid a collapsing Canadian dollar, so I would like to convert as much of my savings into US dollars while simultaneously increasing the safety of these savings if possible.

    Thanks,
    Variable

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