May 072020
 


Banksy – Sounthampton General Hospital – 2020

 

 

Coronavirus May Have Jumped To Humans As Early As October (SCMP)
Italian Scientists Claim To Have Developed World’s First Coronavirus Vaccine (Ind.)
Trump Calls Americans ‘Warriors’ In Fight To Open The Economy (LAT)
Are Americans Ready For A -Costly- Breakup With China? (CSM)
Coronavirus Survivors ‘Permanently Disqualified’ From Joining US Military (NW)
California Expected To Experience ‘Jaw-Dropping’ Unemployment – Newsom (JTN)
UK GPs In The Dark Over COVID19 Tests (G.)
All 400,000 Gowns Flown From Turkey For NHS Fail UK Standards (G.)
COVID19 Deaths: How Does Britain Compare With Other Countries? (Spiegelhalter)
New Zealand ‘Halfway Down Everest’, Plans Big Easing Of COVID Lockdown (G.)
Baltic States To Create ‘Travel Bubble’ As Pandemic Curbs Eased
China’s Services Sector Contracts For Third Month As Job Losses Hit Record (R.)
Republicans Want Review Of Aid To WHO (R.)
OPCW Chief Made False Claims To Denigrate Douma Whistleblower (Maté)
Cuomo Taps Bill Gates To Help Him ‘Reimagine’ New York’s Public Schools (JTN)

 

 

The US had +2,528 new coronavirus deaths yesterday, the highest number since April 21, bringing the national total to 74,799.

 

 

 

 

Cases 3,836,826 (+ 92,061 from yesterday’s 3,744,765)

Deaths 265,366 (+ 6,482 from yesterday’s 258,884)

 

 

 

From Worldometer yesterday evening -before their day’s close-

 

 

From Worldometer Deaths among Closed cases is down to 17%. That still needs to come down much more.

 

 

From SCMP:

 

 

From COVID19Info.live:

 

 

 

 

The FT has a section, Coronavirus: free to read, with a few good graphs.

They look at excess deaths as the best way to gauge COVID19.

And some more graphs:

https://twitter.com/RemiGMI/status/1258021339362885634

 

 

Makes sense.

Coronavirus May Have Jumped To Humans As Early As October (SCMP)

The Covid-19 pandemic might have started as early as October, according to the latest research into the genetic make-up of the coronavirus. The pathogen, formally known as SARS-CoV-2, is thought to have made the jump from initial host to humans some time between October 6 and December 11 last year, according to an article released on Tuesday and set to be published in an upcoming edition of the scientific journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution. The findings are based on analysis of more than 7,000 genome sequence assemblies collected from around the world since January. By examining the evolution of the mutations, researchers from University College London and the University of Reunion Island were able to rewind their molecular clocks to a common starting point.

They were also able to identify the major mutations to the coronavirus, which has continued to evolve since making the jump to humans. While retrospective studies have suggested various dates for the first Covid-19 patient, government data seen by the South China Morning Post put the first confirmed infection at November 17. Based on information from the first whole genome sequence of the coronavirus – published by a laboratory in Shanghai in January – and other genome analyses, scientists had earlier concluded that SARS-CoV-2 most likely came from a bat and made the jump to humans via an intermediate animal some time in November.

But by the time the latest study was conducted, late last month, the researchers had access to much more information via data-sharing platforms. They selected 7,710 assemblies, curated a data set of 7,666 and then analysed the emergence of genomic diversity over time. While there were variations in the mutations and evolutionary stages of the viruses they studied, the team was able to determine their most recent common ancestor (MRCA), which in turn gave them their new estimate for the start of the global health crisis. “These dates for the start of the epidemic are in broad agreement with previous estimates performed on smaller subsets of the Covid-19 genomic data using various computational methods, though they should still be taken with some caution,” the study said.

In most countries, including Britain, the United States and Ireland, the genetic diversity of the samples essentially reflects the global diversity, suggesting the local epidemics came from independent introductions of the virus. However, China, where the outbreak was first reported, is a main exception to this pattern, where only a fraction of the global diversity can be found. “The genomic diversity of the global SARS-CoV-2 population being recapitulated in multiple countries points to extensive worldwide transmission of Covid-19, likely from extremely early on in the pandemic,” the study said.

Read more …

2022 and onwards. Crushing the curve is much easier. And faster.

Italian Scientists Claim To Have Developed World’s First Coronavirus Vaccine (Ind.)

Italian researchers claim to have developed a vaccine that can neutralise the coronavirus in human cells. Tests carried out at Rome’s Lazzaro Spallanzani Hospital, which specialises in infectious diseases, generated antibodies in mice that work in human cells. “This is the most advanced stage of testing of a candidate vaccine created in Italy,” said Luigi Aurisicchio, chief executive of Takis, the company working on the treatment. “According to Spallanzani Hospital, as far as we know we are the first in the world so far to have demonstrated a neutralisation of the coronavirus by a vaccine,” he told the Italian news agency Ansa. “We expect this to happen in humans too.”

“Human tests are expected after this summer,” Mr Aurisicchio said. He added: “We are working hard for a vaccine coming from Italian research, with an all-Italian and innovative technology, tested in Italy and made available to everyone. “In order to reach this goal, we need the support of national and international institutions and partners who may help us speed up the process.” After a single vaccination, the mice developed antibodies capable of blocking the virus from infecting human cells, Mr Aurisicchio claimed. He said researchers observed that five candidate vaccines generated a large number of antibodies and they then selected the two with the best results.

Last week, experts at the University of Oxford said the first results of their coronavirus vaccine trials could be ready by as early as mid-June. The institution also announced a new partnership with British-Swedish pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca. Human trials of the vaccine developed at the university’s Jenner Institute began last month, with hundreds volunteering to be part of the study.

Read more …

Some non-thinkers here: “Good generals do not send their soldiers into battle without knowing that there will be a net gain..”. Right, US generals only go into battle if and when they already know they will win. Must be a lesson learned in Vietnam.

Trump Calls Americans ‘Warriors’ In Fight To Open The Economy (LAT)

Donald Trump has described himself as a “wartime president” during the coronavirus crisis, and now he seems to have found his army as he pushes the country to reopen despite the risks. In recent days, he’s begun describing citizens as “warriors” in the battle against the pandemic and suggested some of those fighters might have to die if that will help boost the economy.“Will some people be affected? Yes,” he said on a trip to Arizona this week, his first outside of the Washington area in nearly two months. “Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open, and we have to get it open soon.” Trump previously described healthcare workers as “warriors” for risking their safety to treat coronavirus patients, wording he used again on Wednesday when signing a proclamation honoring nurses.

But his decision to expand the characterization to everyday Americans is a noticeable shift from his previous declarations that “one is too many” deaths. The toll from the illness surpassed 70,000 this week and seems on track to top 100,000 by the end of the month, numbers far larger than Trump recently predicted. Asked Wednesday if the nation needs to accept greater loss of life, Trump said “hopefully it won’t be the case, but it may very well be the case.” “We have to be warriors,” he said from his seat behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. “We can’t keep our country closed down for years.” The new language shows Trump appears to view people as “collateral damage to salvage the economy,” said Jeffrey Levi, a public health expert at George Washington University.

“Good generals do not send their soldiers into battle without knowing that there will be a net gain,” Levi said. “And here we know reopening too soon will be a net loss, both in lives and the long-term stability of the economy.” White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany denied that Trump was suggesting that citizens must put themselves in harm’s way to fight the coronavirus — “not in the slightest,” she said. Although the president has repeatedly said that Americans must be “warriors” to reopen the economy, McEnany offered an alternative explanation for the description. “They’re warriors because they’ve stayed home,” she said at a White House briefing Wednesday. “They’re warriors because they’ve social distanced. They’re warriors because this mitigation effort is something that could only be done by the American people coming together and making really hard sacrifices.”

[..] Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said there’s no valor in sacrificing people’s lives to fight the pandemic. “People who are dying of this virus are not dying to protect the American way of life,” he said. “They’re dying because their government has had a completely ineffective response to this infectious disease.” If Americans are being considered warriors, Jha said, Trump is sending them onto the battlefield without the testing and contact tracing required for protection. “He has left Americans disarmed,” he said. “He’s not given the American people the tools they need to fight this virus.”

Read more …

See yesterday. Lots of people quoting the SCMP article today, but it’s just hot air.

Are Americans Ready For A -Costly- Breakup With China? (CSM)

[..] some longtime advocates of a “decoupling” from China say the pandemic offers the best opportunity since the 1970s for a robust national debate on the merits of a significant and policy-driven separation. Such a debate would span issues from technology transfer and U.S. economic sectors’ dependence on China trade to sharpening criticism of China’s violations of human rights. “Three months ago I would have said there was no chance of a serious decoupling from China, but the political environment has changed,” says Derek Scissors, an expert in U.S.-China economic relations at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “We’re still not near the serious – and what would be costly – steps necessary to separate [from them] and reduce our participation in the success of China’s economic model,” he adds.

“But all the outrage over the tremendous suffering and economic impact of [the pandemic] has opened a door to a reassessment of our relationship.” More likely than a new China strategy that sets out to reduce ties, say others, is an acceleration and intensification of actions that were already being pursued or promoted by some in Congress and some China analysts. “What this [rise in tensions] is really doing is exacerbating the geopolitical trends we’ve already been seeing in recent years,” says Michael Auslin, a distinguished research fellow in contemporary Asia at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Stanford, California. “The tensions were already growing.” Thus there is likely to be rising pressure for action on topics that have raged for years, from stemming the theft of intellectual property and repatriating supply chains critical to U.S. national security, to confronting China’s expansionist activities in the South China Sea.

A change that the U.S. and other Western countries should capitalize on in the post-pandemic period, some experts say, is that China is now going to be marked by many countries as an untrustworthy partner. That is not just because of how China handled the initial outbreak of the coronavirus, they say, but because its heavy-handed actions in its pandemic-related foreign assistance has left a bad taste from Europe to Africa. “The world has put an asterisk next to China,” says Mr. Auslin, who notes for example that the White House now puts an asterisk next to coronavirus statistics out of China. And the theme running through much of the European press last week, he says, was “The Week China Lost Europe.”

Read more …

No, not just survivors, but anyone who’s ever tested positive.

If that herd immunity idea ever goes anywhere, that would mean 60%+ can’t join anymore. Who said Americans have no sense of humor?

Coronavirus Survivors ‘Permanently Disqualified’ From Joining US Military (NW)

The military will stop recruiting applicants who have tested positive for COVID-19, according to a proposal in a memo from the U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command (MEPCOM). The contents of the memo, which has been circulating on the internet, were confirmed to Newsweek by the Pentagon, which described them as “interim guidance.” The story was first reported by the Military Times. “During the medical history interview or examination, a history of COVID-19, confirmed by either a laboratory test or a clinician diagnosis, is permanently disqualifying,” the memo reads. Additionally, the memo lays out guidelines for handling possible and confirmed coronavirus cases in applicants.


It says any applicants at any of the 65 nationwide Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) should be evaluated for possible coronavirus infection, most likely through a temperature check and questions about their symptoms and possible contact with infected individuals. If an applicant seems likely positive for the coronavirus, they can return to the MEPS if they’re symptom-free after 14 days. Anyone who tests positive through a lab test or clinical diagnosis can return to MEPS 28 days after their diagnosis. However, their application will be marked as “permanently disqualifying,” and while applicants can request a waiver the memo offers no further guidance for possible COVID-19 exceptions, meaning that “a review authority would have no justification to grant a waiver,” says the Military Times.

Read more …

A lot of support for opening up also involves halting financial support plans. Worst idea ever, because:

California Expected To Experience ‘Jaw-Dropping’ Unemployment – Newsom (JTN)

California Governor Gavin Newsom forewarned of “jaw-dropping” unemployment at his daily press conference on Wednesday. After stating the state is experiencing an unprecedented spike in unemployment claims, he said, “You’ll see these numbers translating into unemployment rates that will be rather jaw-dropping.” Newsom called the rise in unemployment claims “Without precedent in our state’s history,” noting that 4.2 million people have now applied for Public Unemployment Assistance and $10.6 billion in aid has already been distributed.


He also announced his signing an executive order extending worker’s compensation to essential workers who test positive for COVID-19, adding that benefits could only be rebutted by an employer “under strict criteria.” Newsom is facing mounting criticism over a plan he announced on April 16 that would create a $125 million fund for undocumented immigrants affected by the coronavirus. Non-profits will distribute the money, but it’s still unclear when people will see a check.

Read more …

Link on the page to another Giurdian article: Q&A – Coronavirus tests in the UK – who qualifies for one?

That would have been a reasonable question in January, perhaps into February. It’s idiotic in May.

UK GPs In The Dark Over COVID19 Tests (G.)

The results of hundreds of thousands of coronavirus tests carried out at privately run drive-through centres in England have not yet been shared with GPs or local authorities, who complain they have “no idea” where local disease clusters are. GPs told the Guardian they had been “totally left out of the conversation” after the government said it was still “working on a technical solution” to get Covid-19 test results into individual GP records in England, having promised to do so weeks ago. Meanwhile, the chief medical officer for England, Prof Chris Whitty, apologised to local health leaders who have not yet received any detailed data from “pillar two” tests conducted by the private firm Deloitte over the past month.


These now form the majority of tests being carried out each day, either at drive-through testing centres or via the post. During a conference call on Wednesday with directors of public health at local authorities across England, the government’s national coordinator of the UK coronavirus testing programme, Prof John Newton, also apologised for not yet sharing the detailed data. He said there had been “data quality issues”. Newton admitted that the Deloitte tests did not yet ask people for their ethnicity or whether they worked in health or social care – an oversight described by one director of public health on the call as “really disappointing”. People of colour and healthcare workers and those working in care homes are known to have much higher incidences of the disease.

Read more …

• UK unemployment to double and economy to shrink by 25%, warns Bank of England

• British economic output is set to crash 14% this year owing to the coronavirus, the Bank of England said as it left its interest rate at 0.1%.

• UK gross domestic product would rebound by 15% in 2021 however, the BoE said

• Buy some more gowns, unseen preferably

All 400,000 Gowns Flown From Turkey For NHS Fail UK Standards (G.)

Last month, amid dire warnings of shortages of personal protective equipment for health workers, ministers publicised the imminent arrival from Turkey of a fleet of RAF cargo planes bringing in a “very significant” shipment of PPE for the NHS. More than a fortnight later, it has emerged that every one of the 400,000 protective gowns that eventually arrived has been impounded after being found not to conform to UK standards. The Department for Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday evening that the items were being held in a facility near Heathrow airport. It is understood that they are due to be sent back and that the DHSC intends to seek a refund, as it has done in similar situations in the past.

The announcement of the shipment by the communities secretary, Robert Jenrick, on 18 April came as unions and professional bodies warned that NHS staff may refuse to work without PPE. Jenrick told the daily Downing Street press briefing that healthcare workers should be “assured that we are doing everything we can to correct this issue”, saying they would have the equipment they “need and deserve”. Sources later told the Guardian that the DHSC had advised No 10 not to allow Jenrick to publicise the shipment in case it backfired, but was overruled. The necessary clearances, it turned out, had not been sought. When the consignment did not arrive on time as promised, the delay prompted hospital leaders to directly attack the government for the first time during the pandemic.

Ministers responded by saying they thought it may only a one-day delay. Two days later, with the shipment only then beginning to clear Turkish customs checks, they were only able to give an estimate of arrival “in the next few days”. The first planeload of gowns eventually arrived on 22 April, but the next day it was reported that “less than a 10th” of the order had arrived. Now all are expected to be returned. The saga, first reported by the Telegraph, is one of a series of highly publicised government coronavirus initiatives that have failed to deliver the promised results. Its much-trumpeted “ventilator challenge” asked companies such as Rolls-Royce and Dyson to begin producing the machines, but none have reached the final stages of testing and the majority have proved surplus to requirements.

Read more …

David Spiegelhalter was quoted by the PM yesterday to prove Britain can’t be compared to opther countries, and didn’t like that. He tweeted: “Polite request to PM and others: please stop using my Guardian article to claim we cannot make any international comparisons yet. I refer only to detailed league tables-of course we should now use other countries to try and learn why our numbers are high..”

BTW, Spiegelhalter translate as “someone who holds (up) a mirror”. Fitting.

COVID19 Deaths: How Does Britain Compare With Other Countries? (Spiegelhalter)

You would think it would be easy for a bean-counting statistician to count deaths – the one certain thing (apart from taxes). But it is remarkably difficult. I have stopped taking much notice of the number given out at the daily press conferences, as it is only based on reports from hospitals, oscillates wildly around weekends, and recently included deaths that occurred a month ago. And this week the number of UK deaths jumped up by nearly 5,000 to 26,097 in one day – rather close to Starmer’s count – by retrospectively including non-hospital deaths that had tested positive for the virus. But even this is too low, as it does not include the many deaths of people who were not tested.

The Office for National Statistics data on death registrations is the last word, although inevitably delayed by around 10 days, and these figures would be expected to take the current total to significantly more than 30,000. But we should be very cautious in comparing even this uncertain total with those of other countries. Every country has different ways of recording Covid-19 deaths: the large number of deaths in care homes have not featured in Spain’s statistics – which, like the UK’s require a positive test result. The numbers may be useful for looking at trends, but they are not reliable indicators for comparing the absolute levels. If we were naive enough to take the counts at face value, the new figures propelled the UK past France and Spain into second place in Europe behind Italy, which is not encouraging because we are behind Italy in terms of what stage of the epidemic we are at.

A more equitable metric might be Covid-19 deaths per million. Ignoring tiny countries, our current score of 388 puts us fourth, behind Belgium (632), Spain (509) and Italy (452). But these are still deeply unreliable numbers, as it is not clear if we should just be looking at Covid-19-labelled deaths anyway. The effects of seasonal flu are not based on tests or death certificates, but at looking at the total number of deaths over the winter, seeing how many extra there are than a baseline, allowing for climate, and assuming these excess deaths were linked to flu. On average, over the last 10 years this has come to about 8,000 flu-related deaths, rising to 26,400 in 2017-2018 and 28,300 in 2014-15.

Read more …

Being an island helps. And so does a real lockdown.

New Zealand ‘Halfway Down Everest’, Plans Big Easing Of COVID Lockdown (G.)

Hairdressers, bars and competitive sport could be back on the agenda for New Zealanders from next week as the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, said the country was “halfway down Everest” in its fight against Covid-19. New Zealand has been under strict lockdown restrictions for more than five weeks, but the low number of cases this week – zero for two consecutive days – means restrictions will soon be lifted. Ardern and her cabinet will make a decision on downgrading the country’s alert level from three to two on Monday, and by Wednesday, life could begin to look much more normal – and fun – for millions of cooped-up Kiwis. The relaxation of restrictions, which would allow gatherings of up to 100 people, both indoors and outdoors, was greeted with jubilation across the country.

Public spaces such as playgrounds and libraries would be reopened, bars and restaurants would be able to accept patrons, and domestic travel and competitive sport allowed to resume, including the professional leagues, but there will be no stadium crowds for now. Most workers would be allowed to head back to the office, though Ardern urged any who could stay home – or found it more productive – to do so. Widespread social-distancing rules would continue to apply, including patrons being seated two metres apart in public spaces, strangers keeping their distance from one another, and hairdressers, barbers and beauticians being required to wear PPE.

New Zealanders have been living in tight “bubbles” for more than a month, only allowed to socialise with those in their own home. Under the plans outlined by Ardern on Thursday, they would be permitted to see friends, family and even online dates – so long as they keep a log of their movements, and did not participate in indoor or outdoor gatherings of any more than 100. Weddings, funerals and anniversary celebrations would also be permitted. [..] the measures appear to have been effective, with just 21 deaths – all older people with pre-existing health conditions – and global praise has been heaped on the small island nation of 5 million by the World Health Organization, among others.

Read more …

Eastern Europe is a success story.

Baltic States To Create ‘Travel Bubble’ As Pandemic Curbs Eased

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will open their borders to each others’ citizens from May 15, creating a Baltic “travel bubble” within the European Union amid an easing of pandemic restrictions, their prime ministers said on Wednesday. “It’s a big step towards life as normal”, Estonian Prime Minister Juri Ratas wrote on Twitter. The Baltic travel area would be first of its kind in the bloc, where most countries restricted entry to non-nationals and imposed quarantine on incoming travellers as the coronavirus spread across the continent. Citizens of the three countries will be free to travel within the region, but anyone entering from outside will need to self-isolate for 14 days, Lithuanian Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis said.


“We showed a good example by stating, very clearly, that only countries which successfully dealt with the situation can open themselves up,” he added. “I think we will keep to this principle when dealing with countries where the situation is very bad, which did not take measures to control the virus spread.” Poland and Finland could be the next countries to join the free travel bloc, said Skvernelis. The European Commission has recommended that internal border controls between all member states should be lifted in a coordinated manner, once their virus situation converges sufficiently, the commission’s office in Lithuania said.

Read more …

No buyers left.

China’s Services Sector Contracts For Third Month As Job Losses Hit Record (R.)

China’s services firms wallowed in contraction in April as layoffs hit a record and export orders plunged after signs of improvement in March, a private survey showed, dashing hopes of a quick recovery from the coronavirus blow. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) did manage to pull up to 44.4 in April from 43 in March, but remained in a deep slump and far below historic averages. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The third straight month of contraction for China’s services sector, an important generator of jobs and which accounts for about 60% of the economy, suggests a still turbulent period ahead after the collapse in economic activity in the first quarter, when GDP shrank 6.8%.


It also raised worries about the outlook even though the pandemic has been largely brought under control domestically, as a sharp global downturn dampens demand for Chinese goods and services. “The second shockwave for China’s economy brought about by shrinking overseas demand should not be underestimated in the second quarter,” said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group. Major economies, including the United States and Europe, remain in the grip of the pandemic amid rapidly rising infections and deaths. The sweeping impact of the coronavirus, with the global death toll at well over 250,000, has many worried that a worldwide recession could be far more damaging than first thought. In April, new export orders shrank further after their pace of contraction slowed in March, declining at the second-fastest rate on record, just marginally better than February’s collapse.

Read more …

You mean, you don’t do such reviews normally? High time then. Still, “..a task force to assess how well multilateral institutions carry out their missions and serve American interests.” sounds nuts. They’re supposed to serve global interests. If not, they would start serving US interests at the cost of other countries. Oh wait…

Republicans Want Review Of Aid To WHO (R.)

Five U.S. Senate Republicans introduced a bill on Wednesday seeking a review of U.S. participation in the World Health Organization and other international institutions, after President Donald Trump’s administration suspended U.S. contributions to the U.N. health agency and accused it of mishandling the coronavirus pandemic. Introduced by Chairman Jim Risch and four other Republican members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the “Multilateral Aid Review Act of 2020” would establish a task force to assess how well multilateral institutions carry out their missions and serve American interests.

The bill requires a report on 38 institutions. Besides the WHO, they include the World Bank; Asian, African, Inter-American and North American Development Banks, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as well as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, several U.N. organizations and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Trump suspended U.S. contributions to the WHO on April 14, accusing it of promoting China’s “disinformation” about the coronavirus outbreak and saying his administration would launch a review of the organization. WHO officials have denied the claims and China insists it has been transparent and open. The United States is the WHO’s biggest donor.

“As we have seen most recently with questionable actions taken by the World Health Organization in response to the spread of COVID-19, it is critically important to have accountability and oversight of our assistance,” Risch said in a statement announcing the bill. [..] Critics of the aid review bill said they were concerned the task force would be too partisan because Pompeo would be its chairman and members would be appointed by Trump.

Read more …

Why are we still discussing the OPCW? Why does it still exist? They’re a bunch of liars who were found out.

OPCW Chief Made False Claims To Denigrate Douma Whistleblower (Maté)

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has made false and misleading statements about two veteran inspectors who challenged a cover-up of their investigation in Syria, leaked documents show. The inspectors probed an alleged chemical weapons attack in the Syrian city of Douma in April 2018, and later objected when their evidence was suppressed. Documents obtained by The Grayzone reveal that OPCW leaders have engaged in a pattern of deception that minimized the inspectors’ senior roles in the Douma mission and diminished the prestige they enjoyed within the world’s top chemical weapons watchdog.

OPCW Director General Fernando Arias has claimed that the first inspector, South African chemical engineering and ballistics expert Ian Henderson, “was not a member” of the Douma investigative team and only played a “minor supporting role.” However, contemporaneous communications from the OPCW’s Douma Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) directly contradict Arias. They show that Henderson was indeed a Douma team member, and that OPCW leadership directed him to lead its most critical inspections. They also show that Arias, rather than acknowledge that Henderson was an FFM member, offered up a false explanation for why Henderson was in Syria at the time of the probe.

Arias has also disingenuously minimized the role of the second inspector, known only to the public as “Inspector B.” This will be examined in part two of this article. The OPCW’s investigation was triggered when extremist anti-Syrian government militants and Western states accused the Syrian army of dropping gas cylinders on two buildings in Douma, killing dozens of civilians. The U.S., France, and Britain bombed Syrian government targets days later, asserting their right to enforce the chemical weapons “red line.” After a nearly year-long investigation, the OPCW issued a final report in March 2019 that claimed “reasonable grounds” existed to believe that a chlorine attack occurred.

However, a trove of leaked documents has shown that the OPCW leadership suppressed and manipulated evidence that undermined the allegation against the Syrian military. The first of such leaks was an engineering assessment authored by Henderson that concluded that the gas cylinders in Douma were likely “manually placed.” That conclusion suggested the incident was staged on the ground by the armed militants who controlled Douma at the time. Additional leaks later revealed that Inspector B protested the censorship of critical evidence and toxicology reports, as well as the manipulation of chemical samples and witness statements. Henderson and B also complained that OPCW leaders excluded all of the Douma investigators except for one paramedic from a so-called “core” team that wrote the organization’s final report.

Read more …

In case you needed any confirmation that Andrew Cuomo is not exactly your hero.

As for Bill Gates, he’s just a fool with too much money, and should be kept far from schools. We don’t need another generation using his crappy software.

I had a text talk with a friend in Greece Tuesday, who tried to convince me that Bill Gates wanted to force-vaccinate everyone and force implant them with nano-chips to prove vaccination. I think maybe because of the language barrier he may not have grasped the nuances whenn I said: “You have nothing to worry about then, because there is no vaccine”.

Someone else sent me a video from the Alex Jones studios that claimed Bill Gates is the mastermind behind a grand secret global conspiracy to depopulate the planet -hence COVID19-. I’m sorry, but I cannot post that here.

Cuomo Taps Bill Gates To Help Him ‘Reimagine’ New York’s Public Schools (JTN)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced a partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to “reimagine” schools when they reopen after the coronavirus pandemic. “Bill Gates is a visionary in many ways, and his ideas and thoughts on technology and education he’s spoken about for years,” Cuomo said Tuesday. “But I think we now have a moment in history where we can actually incorporate and advance those ideas. Cuomo said the state is exploring the possibility that K-12 schools will utilize distancing learning in the future and wondered aloud if the “old model” of in-person learning was obsolete.

He said Gates would help evaluate possible changes to the education system, including providing more opportunities to students, using technology to reduce educational inequality, and recreating larger class or lecture hall environments with virtual classrooms. The Gates Foundation has experimented with education before with some mixed results. Business Insider reports that Gates spent $1 billion and seven years working on an initiative to improve test performance for students in low-income schools by closely monitoring teacher effectiveness. The program reportedly didn’t improve test scores or drop-out rates in the long-term, and even “did more harm than good.”

The Gothamist reports at least five organizations have already spoken out against the partnership, citing concerns about the Microsoft founder’s support of standardized testing and Common Core curriculum. Allies for Public Education, Class Size Matters, and the Parent Coalition for Student Privacy — have already written to Cuomo and state education officials to voice their objections. “We were appalled to hear that you will be working with the Gates Foundation on ‘reimagining’ our schools following the Covid crisis,” the coalition wrote. “Bill Gates and the Gates Foundation have promoted one failed educational initiative after another, causing huge disaffection in districts throughout the state.

Read more …

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle May 7 2020

This topic contains 37 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by  Boogaloo 5 months, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #58454

    Banksy – Sounthampton General Hospital – 2020     • Coronavirus May Have Jumped To Humans As Early As October (SCMP) • Italian Scientists Cl
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle May 7 2020]

    #58455

    Polder Dweller
    Participant

    Catch Corona and Dodge the Draft!

    #58456

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Catch Corona and Dodge the Draft!

    Poverty wins everytime; the endemic poverty of the non-whites; joining the military; is a living; it is the new draft; an all “volunteer” army… of poor conscripts with no hope of a future outside of getting sucked into the military…

    #58457

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Banksy – Sounthampton General Hospital – 2020

    The Bansky is of course beautifully done, but somehow lacking in the overall relevance of today…
    Nurses are human and should stay that way…

    #58458

    zerosum
    Participant

    “The FT has a section, Coronavirus: free to read, with a few good graphs.

    They look at excess deaths as the best way to gauge COVID19.”

    I like it.

    ——–
    Are we in the second wave
    • Coronavirus May Have Jumped To Humans As Early As October (SCMP)

    “The genomic diversity of the global SARS-CoV-2 population being recapitulated in multiple countries points to extensive worldwide transmission of Covid-19, likely from extremely early on in the pandemic,” the study said.

    ——-

    #58459

    Carlos Jimenez
    Participant

    I first learned of Dr. Judi Miskovits a week ago in an inteview, now there’s this one as part of the documentary Plandemic. I think it summarizes like a Coroner’s report how the cancer killed the country’s science community or shall we call it Science Complex?
    I’m somewhat surprised she didn’t get flying lessons from a high rise building like Dr. Olsen did, or James Forrestal for that matter.

    #58460

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    I first learned of Dr. Judi Miskovits a week ago in an inteview, now there’s this one as part of the documentary Plandemic. I think it summarizes like a Coroner’s report how the cancer killed the country’s science community or shall we call it Science Complex?

    I like what you said…
    Keep it coming…

    #58461

    Carlos Jimenez
    Participant

    Spell check: Dr.Judy Mikovits and Dr. Olson Frank Olson, a bacteriologist and biological warfare specialist out of Fort Detrick.

    #58462

    Mr. House
    Participant

    “Why are we still discussing the OPCW? Why does it still exist? They’re a bunch of liars who were found out.”

    I agree 100% with that sentiment, which is why i’m having so much trouble now buying into all of this. That same story about liars in Syria doesn’t just end with the OPCW. It was also pushed by the US government and the US media. My question to you Illargi (also thank you for being the most tolerant of contrarian viewpoints of all the sites i’ve been reading the past ten years) why should i believe them now? How many times can i be lied to before my trust is fully broken? I’d say it was gone long before COVID. For 12 years i’ve been reading you and others and waiting for the financial house of cards to collapse from its own corrupt weight. Suddenly it does, i mean the fed stopped raising rates after december of 2018, they then begin to lower rates spring of 2019, balance sheet reduction also ends that year, then in September you have repo issues that were still raging beginning this year. And pow, virus. I have been following this virus since January when zerohedge began to post about it. I still don’t know anyone with it, but thats ok because everyone already has it but doesn’t know it(asymptomatic carriers)? Not only that, but nobody and i mean nobody but “the fringe” of people is questioning it? You have no skepticism of this at all? Have you had any personal experiences with it yet? Oh and by the by did you see the skyscraper in the UAE that caught fire? It burned all night and from the pictures was quite the raging inferno, yet it did not fall into its own footprint. The lies and lies and lies, but now i should believe the authorities?

    #58463

    Dr. D
    Participant

    What does this chart of all British mortality say?

    UK

    COVID 19 is a Statistical Nonsense

    Very. Comprehensive. Even more telling than the similar data-rigging by the CDC.

    NY Times lying. Again. Every Day:

    “A Northwestern University history professor called into question the accuracy of a New York Times Magazine essay that won a Pulitzer Prize.
    “The actual truth of American history isn’t the narrative that the Times cares to report,” Gainor added.”

    https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=14822

    CBS, who ran fake footage of Italian hospitals – twice! – busted for lying about Covid testing.

    But I’m sure they tell the truth about CDC and British mortality rates.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/Provisional-Death-Counts-COVID-19-Pneumonia-and-Influenza.pdf

    Column 5. No additional deaths. In fact, yearly deaths are 2% under average. Wow, that matches Britain! Could it be the media is…dare I say…lying? Shock! WMD, RussiaRussiaRussia. Nah, we always believe known liars. No one can be discredited. Not even when they print $6T for themselves while buying off the people for a mere $1,200, and killing maybe half a million.

    Well, it’s Thursday then.

    “Washington… Governor Jay Inslee has extended the lockdown into the end of May despite that fact that it peaked April 3rd, and less than 900 people died in that state. So what is going on?
    …the population of Washington State is 7.615 million. That means that less than 0.002% of the population was ever infected. You do not shut down the economy for this low infection rate. This is clearly a fraud upon the people”

    I thought this was virulent and there is a major U.S. city in Washington State. The virus seems to respect borders whenever it’s politically convenient for it. Strange virus! Almost like the data is corrupt.

    The bill requires a report on 38 institutions.”

    Rogue’s gallery of the Derp State. Cutting them off, just like drug running and human trafficking. Yes, add the OPCW, defund and arrest them.

    Found it:
    “Fauci Knew Since 2005 that the Malaria Drug Can Even Cure Coronaviruses”

    ““We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage.”

    Fauci Knew since 2005 that the Malaria Drug Can even Cure Coronaviruses & Conflicts of Interest Abound

    “’Apocalyptic’: Hospitals are losing millions treating coronavirus and the results could be dire”
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/treating-coronavirus-draining-hospital-coffers-millions-threatening-resources-n1201541

    No food, bankrupt (rural) hospitals close. Free money to the top, consolidation, centralization, and concentration of power via the most coincidentally-timed virus ever. That should be good to kill an additional 400k over time. Was 30,000 poor people a year not enough?

    Gee, I wonder why the people seem to have stopped the lockdown and are ignoring it?

    I don’t want a safe space. Stop helping before you kill two million instead of one. Leave me the — alone.

    #58464

    Mr. House
    Participant

    Oh and on another note, did you see the article in politico the other day where the NY Fed released a research paper stating that the spanish flu led to the rise of the nazis?

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/fed-study-1918-pandemic-nazi-party-gains-236530

    I mean really? When has anyone ever published a NY Fed paper in politico? It wasn’t the economy and inflation, it was the nazis, or maybe it was inflation and the bad economy when those were the enemies and we’re now changing our minds?

    #58466

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Snopes provided this background regarding the firing and subsequent arrest of researcher Judy MIkovits.

    In 2009, biologist Judy Mikovits, who was then the research director of the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome-focused Whittemore Peterson Institute (WPI), published a paper on what she and many others thought to be a major scientific breakthrough in the prestigious journal Science. Her team alleged to have demonstrated an association between a newly discovered retrovirus called “xenotropic murine leukemia virus-related virus” (XMRV) and the poorly understood condition known as Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS), suggesting a potential viral cause for CFS.

    The paper received substantial international coverage. However, as with so many other potentially groundbreaking studies, nobody — including many of the same researchers involved with the original study — was able to replicate its results. Numerous attempts failed to replicate the study, and the research itself came under increasing scrutiny for sloppy methods and its reliance on misleading or manufactured figures.

    On 1 July 2011, Science’s editors issued a “statement of concern” about the paper. On 14 October 2011, the authors issued a partial retraction of their paper that touched on issues with some of their figures. Finally, on 23 December 2011, the editors of Science retracted the paper in full:

    Science is fully retracting the Report “Detection of an infectious retrovirus, XMRV, in blood cells of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome”. Multiple laboratories, including those of the original authors, have failed to reliably detect xenotropic murine leukemia virus– related virus (XMRV) or other murine leukemia virus (MLV)–related viruses in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) patients. In addition, there is evidence of poor quality control in a number of specific experiments in the Report … Given all of these issues, Science has lost confidence in the Report and the validity of its conclusions … We are therefore editorially retracting the Report. We regret the time and resources that the scientific community has devoted to unsuccessful attempts to replicate these results.

    Three months later, the Whittemore Peterson Institute fired Judy Mikovits amid concerns over the integrity of her work and her collaboration with an outside scientist, as reported in the multidisciplinary scientific journal Nature:

    The scientist behind a study that linked chronic fatigue syndrome to a virus has lost her job and is now facing accusations that she has misrepresented data. Judy Mikovits … was fired on 29 September after she clashed with the institute’s president and co-founder, Annette Whittemore, over the work of another researcher.

    The following day, in what seems to be a separate development, a blogger posted a figure from a 2009 paper that Mikovits co-authored in Science alongside one that Mikovits used in a recent presentation. The two figures, which are used to describe different results, look identical, except for the labeling.

    A few months after that, Mikovits was arrested in southern California “on an ‘out of county warrant’ from Washoe County, Nevada, for allegedly taking lab notebooks, a computer, and other material from the Whittemore Peterson Institute in Reno, Nevada, after the WPI fired her.” The arrest came in conjunction with a lawsuit from WPI that sought a restraining order to block Mikovits’ destruction of data which they maintained belonged to the institute:

    After Mikovits was terminated on 29 September, she wrongfully removed laboratory notebooks and kept other proprietary information on her laptop and in flash drives and in a personal e-mail account. WPI, a nonprofit organization that’s based on the campus of the University of Nevada, Reno, also won a temporary restraining order that forbids Mikovits from “destroying, deleting, or altering” any of the related files or data.

    The charges were dropped, not because of the merits of the case, but due to a variety of complicating legal factors related to the family that runs the Whittemore Peterson Institute:

    On 11 June, the district attorney’s office for Washoe County filed a petition to dismiss the criminal charges against Mikovits without prejudice (which means they can file a related complaint in the future), a clerk to the Justice Court of Reno told ScienceInsider.

    Mikovits, who was briefly jailed on the charges, is still defending herself in the civil case, which has taken several bizarre twists, including a judge who had ruled against Mikovits recusing himself. The judge removed himself from the case because he received campaign donations from WPI co-founder Harvey Whittemore, who himself has been criminally charged with making illegal campaign contributions to a federal official …

    Assistant District Attorney John Helzer, who filed the dismissal, says Whittemore’s legal troubles factored into his decision. “There’s a lot going on with the federal government and different levels that wasn’t occurring when we first became involved with prosecuting this case,” says Helzer. “And we have witness issues that have arisen.”

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/scientist-vaccine-jailed/

    #58468

    kimyo99
    Participant

    i trust snopes as much as i trust the nytimes. here’s their take on remdesivir vs. hydroxychloroquine: Is a Global Conspiracy Promoting Remdesivir Over Hydroxychloroquine for Treating COVID-19?

    A sprawling conspiracy theory proves numerous individuals and organizations schemed to promote the drug Remdesivir as a COVID-19 treatment over the purportedly highly effective Hydroxychloroquine.

    snopes rates this theory as false. among the reasons? gilead did NOT contribute to hillary’s 2016 campaign…china does not own the patent to remdesevir…only a portion of fauci/niaid’s grant money was used to fund research at the wuhan lab.

    actual fact checkers wouldn’t find it necessary to serve up/knock down one straw man after another.

    they close with:

    The anti-malarial drug Hydroxychloroquine, much-touted by U.S. President Donald Trump as a potential COVID-19 treatment, does not have a proven “92% success rate” in treating patients with that disease. Rather, according to a “finding from a retrospective analysis conducted by the U.S. Veterans Health Administration,” hydroxychloroquine for treatment of patients with COVID-19, “combined with or without azithromycin, not only may not help mitigate the virus’ effect, it also may increase overall mortality.”

    (apologies if this is a dupe, the edit option seems to have deleted my first try)

    #58469

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Okay, forget Snopes, here’s an article from 2011 with some background regarding the firing and subsequent arrest of Judy Mikovits.

    In 2010, we published a story about an amazing scientific finding that had caused enormous waves in medicine. Researchers reported finding a link between a retrovirus called XMRV and chronic fatigue syndrome, a frustrating disorder with no proven explanation and no cure. The findings were reported in a paper in one of the most prestigious journals in the world – Science.

    What grabbed our attention was what some of the scientists involved with the paper did after its publication in 2009. The lead researcher, Judy Mikovits, began making sweeping unsupported statements about the finding, including tying XMRV to autism without publishing any data to support that statement. Some CFS patients began taking potent antiretroviral drugs meant to treat HIV.

    The problem with all of this was that in science, findings don’t mean much until they are replicated. Scientists are often wrong, even when they publish in prestigious journals. And in this case, soon after the Science paper came out, independent teams were unable to replicate the findings. They could not find evidence of XMRV in the blood of CFS patients – or anyone else for that matter. Talk of contamination – a not-unheard-of problem in virology labs – arose.

    Mikovits adamantly denied contamination had anything to do with her results.

    [Trine has written about this back-and-forth on Trib Nation before, and you may have joined her for a livechat on the topic in December 2010. We covered a lot of ground in that discussion. — Eds.]

    Recently, we reported that the journal Science had launched an investigation into whether a figure in Mikovits’ 2009 paper had been manipulated. Soon after, Mikovits was fired from the Whittemore Peterson Institute for Neuro-Immune Diseases, the Reno, Nev., non-profit created by the parents of a daughter with CFS. Last week, WPI filed a civil lawsuit against Mikovits, accusing her of taking lab notebooks and a computer that belonged to WPI.

    On Nov. 18, Mikovits was arrested in Ventura, Calif., as a fugitive.

    The University of Nevada, Reno police issued an arrest warrant listing two felony charges: possession of stolen property and unlawful taking of computer data, equipment, supplies or other computer related property. Mikovits will be arraigned Tuesday afternoon in California.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-covering-the-stunning-fall-of-judy-mikovits-20111122-story.html

    #58470

    Watched the Mikovits video for a few minutes and thought: no credibility. You can’t accuse someone of willingly killing millions of people and not prove it. She doesn’t. Of course, just look at him, Fauci is a wanker and a rodent and a stooge for Big Pharma, or he would’t have had his job for so long. But that doesn’t say much about him, it merely describes the USA.

    A bit later they suggest Bill Gates wants to force-vaccinate everybody, but play footage in which he doesn’t say that. He doesn’t mention “by force”, he merely says everyone must be vaccinated, and likely means “to return to normal”. There are tons of people saying that, and they’ll all wrong, as I explained in Why Lockdowns Work. Which is good, because there is no vaccine.

    Ergo, as I told my Greek friend, even if he wanted to use force, which he doesn’t as far as I have seen, and as the footage appears to confirm, we’re all safe because there is no vaccine. So a thumbs down for Mikovits.

    Note: YouTube has apparently deleted the video.

    #58471

    Mr. House
    Participant

    “Of course, just look at him, Fauci is a wanker and a rodent and a stooge for Big Pharma, or he would’t have had his job for so long. But that doesn’t say much about him, it merely describes the USA.”

    Exactly and the same goes for everyone at the top. I’m not saying the virus isn’t real, i’m just arguing its being used as cover for economic depression. This cover will deflect blame from where it belongs, with the same people the automatic earth has been pointing out since i began reading it. None of them will be fired, none of them will lose their jobs, as Dr D loves to point out. Same people from the last crisis who didn’t fix anything calling the shots in this “crisis”.

    #58472

    Dr. D
    Participant

    Negative rates. BTC $10,000, doubled in 2 months. Gold $1,720.

    So if you have negative rates, maybe you should leave the currency?

    And if you leave the currency, doesn’t that make it not the “Reserve Currency” anymore?

    If the Reserve currency fails, inflates away, is that a default?

    #58473

    kimyo99
    Participant

    Bill Gates wants to force-vaccinate everybody

    what if what bill gates wants is not ‘vaccination by force’ but ‘free movement by government approval only’?

    ie: no one is going to hold a gun to your head while they plunge a syringe into your arm. but, do you want to ride on the train/bus? shop? go to school/work? attend a concert/ball game?

    well, then you’ll need a digital certificate certifying that you meet government criteria. imho, that’s what gates/fauci/cuomo/etc are trying to achieve.

    @ilargi: i’d very much like to understand your position: what is an appropriate penalty for those who dare to step outside without their e-papers? should repeat offenders be jailed?

    #58474

    Boogaloo
    Participant

    Dr. D, you asked us a question about that first chart, but I cannot figure out the answer. What does that first chart purport to show? A model? A projection? Source?

    #58475

    Huskynut
    Participant

    Iargi
    “Fauci is a wanker and a rodent”
    Thank you, thank you.. those words will ring with me for days, and bring a smile every single time 🙂

    Coronavirus May Have Jumped To Humans As Early As October (SCMP)
    I’m persuaded by this clip that there was no natural jumping going on – certainly not via mutation anyway. Lab engineered seems the most probale, and certainly explains the massive Chinese response immediately after sequencing it.

    New Zealand ‘Halfway Down Everest’, Plans Big Easing Of COVID Lockdown (G.)
    “Halfway down Everest” – fuck, Ardern is truly a weapons-grade emotional manipulator (studied PR, worked in Tony Blair’s office.. what could you expect, I guess..)
    NZ certainly has certainly had a fortunate outcome in deaths (shame about the economic and social costs), but the deification of Ardern is truly disgusting to witness. the more I see and hear from her, the more repulsed I become.

    Really good article today on OffGuardian today on the constitutional and legal impact and implications of governments over-reaching their legal remit in mandating Covid responses.
    There’s a whole separate and interesting thread in exploring wtf happened to the historical concern of the left for protecting freedoms and liberties, and confronting excessive authoritarianism. I’d argue the widespread insanity on the left stemming from Russiagate, TDS etc has effectively neutered almost the entire political left.
    Today’s Flynn result is the latest symptom. I’m truly glad he’s escaped that utterly mendacious action, but watch the MSM reporting unfold and I guarantee it’ll be spun and twisted into something other than the complete vindication of him that it is.

    #58476

    Mr. House
    Participant

    @boogaloo

    If you read the article he posted it shows deaths from england and wales i believe. The chart is saying the deaths this year aren’t really that off trend from other years. Interesting article.

    #58477

    zerosum
    Participant

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/covid-america-73400-dead-33-million-jobless-stocks-soaring

    COVID-America: 73,400 Dead; 33 Million Jobless; Stocks Soaring

    Dhuuuuuu!
    Maybe someone know how the stock market can go up and all the technical say it should be down.

    #58478

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Maybe someone know how the stock market can go up and all the technical say it should be down.

    I certainly can’t give you the technicals; but a bit of common sense should tell you all you need to know: The market is rigged, just like a roulette wheel in a casino.
    Financials across the world are flat busted; free markets are just another lie…on top of all the rest…for the last 57 years…
    When this thing finally blows up; it’s going to be a hum dinger; ya sure, you betcha…
    😉

    #58479

    VietnamVet
    Participant

    Let’s not forget the big divide in the West between the rich and the 10% lackeys and the 90%, everyone else. In no sense are the USA or UK democracies (governments by and for the people) or functional. The Coronavirus Pandemic is real; no government would purposefully lock down a city of 12 million people or allow the situation get so far out of hand that hospitals were overwhelmed in Italy, Spain, England and New York State. Over 104,000 people have died early in the USA and UK.

    Corporate media hides it but the Aristocracy’s arrogance slips out. Secretary of Health and Humans Services, Alex Azar, reportedly said in a conference call that meat packing plant employees caught the coronavirus in the community not the workplace. The Elite Corporate Managers can in no way be a fault for the closure of 52 meat packing plants in the USA by not providing PPE or a safe workplace. No. It is riff-raft’s lowlife crowded together culture that makes them sick. Their immaculate minds can’t grasp that they are actually at fault themselves for the pandemic by ignoring the threat, screwing up testing and shirking from their public health responsibilities. The owners earlier busting of Meatpacking Unions and importing immigrants to do the butchering is ignored.

    The haphazard reopening of the economy is projected to kill 130,000 Americans. If society collapses from loss of income and unrest, millions more will die. This is on the oligarchs and the 10% technocrats and politicians of both parties who through greed, ideology and ignorance enabled the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus across Europe and North America.

    #58480

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    “The chart is saying the deaths this year aren’t really that off trend from other years.”

    That chart is actually misleading, since although it’s comparing the same 20-week stretches of the six worst years in the past 25 years (including this season so far), the 2020 data only includes 4 weeks where there are any deaths from Covid-19. The Covid-19 deaths are still happening at a significant rate, so it’s too early to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

    Here’s a better indication of the situation, with the appearance of Covid-19 deaths causing the total deaths to jump above the 5-year average, climbing to about 200% of the 5-year average (in recent weeks):

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc812/fig1/line/index.html

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24april2020

    #58481

    redshift
    Participant

    The Financial Times, on the other hand, shows a 61% increase. For both to be right, that would mean the increase comes from Scotland and Northern Ireland alone which is very unilkely.

    #58482

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    The Financial Times graph (above) shows 61% excess deaths (during the outbreak) for this calendar year (so far), compared to the same period in recent years.

    The chart posted by Dr D shows 20 weeks of the 2019/2020 season (including only the first 4 weeks of deaths from Covid-19), compared to 20 weeks of deaths from the 5 worst flu seasons in the past 25 years.

    #58483

    Boogaloo
    Participant

    Mr. House, what do you think makes the article interesting? The author seems to be confusing two different issues. There is a raging debate about how to assign a cause of death on a death certificate where there are multiple contributing causes. Those who want to open the economy up want to fudge the statistics downwards. Those who support a more conservative approach are more likely to want to fudge the statistics upwards. How to decipher this? The easiest way to is to look at total deaths and compare that to the last 5 years.

    As to what that chart is, I have no idea. It is not properly labelled in the article. And why are those particular years chosen. The figures for 2020 cannot be actual because we are not even halfway into 2020. Or maybe they are. Is the author trying to manipulate this readers? Or enlighten them?

    If you want a clearer source on all cause mortality in the UK, where the charts are actually labelled so you know what you are looking at, try here, which shows a really big spike in early 2020:
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/883780/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_19__2020__report.pdf

    #58484

    Boogaloo
    Participant

    Doc Robinson, thanks for your explanation/ I posted my last response before I saw your reply. Now I get it, and it convinces me that the author of that article is a charlatan who is cherry-picking and manipulating the statistics. If he wants to say this year is no different from the previous worst five years on record, it is downright dishonest to pick full influenza seasons for comparison purposes when COVID-19 did not really get a foothold in the UK until March. Even if you want to cherry pick the worst five years, the proper comparison is to look at the months of March and April only for the selected years.

    #58485

    “Fauci is a wanker and a rodent”… yup. So we all have cooties now.
    bitter/s

    #58486

    As May rolls by, millions of teenagers will not be getting together to discuss the meaning of life and love. Middle schoolers won’t get to huddle with classmates before they get shuffled and head to high school, and high schoolers won’t get to share wisdom before they face matriculation and the end of childhood.
    These, I recall, were some of the most important conversations I ever had.

    #58488

    “Alone together” doesn’t cut it. This is a massively abusive situation. It’s not just unconstitutional, it warps the soul and devours human agency.
    The only thing worthwhile about humanity is that realm that runs from intimacy to congregation, and it happens in person: voice, touch, smell, four dimensions.
    Isolation, “social distancing”, hiding our faces, living in fear- it cannot go on. It’s the basis of modern torture.
    Some worry that people are dying- I mourn that they are dying alone.

    #58489

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    The only thing worthwhile about humanity is that realm that runs from intimacy to congregation, and it happens in person: voice, touch, smell, four dimensions.
    Isolation, “social distancing”, hiding our faces, living in fear- it cannot go on. It’s the basis of modern torture.

    There has been a concerted effort, run 24/7 for 4+ months, to strike fear, deeply, into everybody. It’s a classic control tactic; and it worked for the most part.
    Only a few countries have opted out of such Orwellian coercion; and they are being attacked as irresponsible and blamed directly for the deaths that inevitably occur regardless of which statedgy is implemented.
    My wife and I have been able to pretty much operate as usual; so far so good…
    I have a saying: Fear is a thief; don’t let it steal from you!
    That said, I also realize the jack boot thugs are operating at will in the U.S.; so, be smart and cunning in your behavior…
    Best to all…

    #58490

    Huskynut
    Participant

    I took my motorcycle for a little “mental health” spin earlier, down a small winding road ti the coast.
    I encountered a few dozen other vehicles along the way and it struck me – the road we were jointly using was narrow and twisty, with only a painted dividing line in the middle. Yet we all had a strong expectation that other vehicles would conform to the rules of the road which allowed us to pass each other quite closely at a closing speed of 100mph.
    I mean, obviously, on the ‘bike I don’t 100% trust other drivers, so I’m always on the lookout to brake quickly or take evasive action. But the level of responsible trust implicit in driving on the roads is something most of us take for granted every day. For the simple reason that humans do substantially collaborate when there’s clear rules and norms.
    Sweden certainly has problems within it’s Covid response, and we’ll only know the results of their “experiment” in perhaps 12 months time. But they did manage to preserve the layer of civility/society which relies on people trusting others to behave well in their common interest.
    Whereas almost the entirety of the West resorted rapidly to very coercive behaviour by the individual authorities. I think that says a helluva lot more than we’ve had the collective mental capacity (being concerned with the short term issues) to process yet, and there’s potential for a substantial social backlash.

    #58491

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    It just occured to me we have not had a lock-down such as the one in the U.S..
    There is a curfew from 22:00 to 04:00; but that’s it.
    Most businesses, schools, and entertainment venues are shut down. Restaurants are allowed take away but no sitdown eating.
    We can still go out and about with no problems. Maintain social distancing and wear masks when shopping or going into banks, etc.
    Nothing such as what I’ve seen on western news (mostly the U.S.) with out of control police; downright terrifying.
    Still just under 3,000 cases, 55 deaths, and single digit new, daily, cases for weeks…

    #58512

    Mr. House
    Participant

    @boogaloo

    If you take this so seriously why are you injecting Red/Blue politics into this? I live in Western PA and so far this is a giant nothing burger here. I think Blue and Red are equally evil, most of us on this site used to be able to agree about that. Can we all agree on here that the problems from 2008 were massive, never corrected, and trying to rear their ugly head since 2008. The Federal reserve has kept the monetary pedal to the medal since 2008, and since the virus has gone to ludicrous speed? While we’re all arguing about something as we usual do, they’re robbing the treasury. Just seems to perfect.

    #58514

    Mr. House
    Participant

    What we think doesn’t matter anyways, we’ve been pissing into the wind for the past 12 years along with those above us pissing down onto us. I guess we’ll be here another 12 years lamenting the woes of the unjust world we live in, cowering in our abodes if we still have one, waiting for Jesus to return.

    #58520

    Boogaloo
    Participant

    @Mr. House

    I am not sure why you think I am injecting Red/Blue politics into this. The author of that article made a dishonest argument and deliberately cherry-picked statistics to create a false impression of the facts. That should be called out every single time regardless of political persuasion.

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