AfD Archives - The Automatic Earth

🇺🇸 ALINA HABBA: TRUMP'S TEAM WON'T BE BULLIED BY THE RADICAL LEFT

"I'm not part of the transition team, but I’ll say this: Matt Gaetz has always been on the President's radar as an America First advocate, no matter how much the radical left dislikes it.

Trump’s picks aren’t… pic.twitter.com/N5S2Wcg7Mq

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) November 15, 2024

Tuberville

Senator Tommy Tuberville just SNAPPED on any Republican Senators having doubts over Matt Gaetz. Adding that Gaetz is "PERFECT for this job."

"I'm tired of hearing these people complain… let's go on with this and give President Trump the players that he needs to run this team."… pic.twitter.com/vsfHdBA4Dk

— George (@BehizyTweets) November 15, 2024

Senator Tuberville reveals that the U.S. military has 44 four-star generals, each of them with a budget of $250 MILLION and each with 2,000 employees.

"We need to take all that money, shut down the Pentagon to about three sides instead of five."

I had no idea it was this bad.… pic.twitter.com/bS5Kezjal8

— George (@BehizyTweets) November 14, 2024

Target
https://twitter.com/i/status/1857136364531429859

Vivek

WATCH: Vivek at AFPI Gala; "Elon Musk and I are in a position to start the deportation of millions of unelected federal bureaucrats out of the DC bureaucracy—I don't know if you've gotten to know Elon but he doesn't bring a chisel, he brings a chainsaw." pic.twitter.com/NoPt4sixhi

— Overton (@overton_news) November 15, 2024

Watters

It’s official: Democrats are shut out of power everywhere. While Congress shapes up, @realDonaldTrump’s nominating at warp speed. Big Pharma and Big Sugar — watch out. @RobertKennedyJr is ready to clean house at both Big Food and Big Pharma. We get sick while they’ve gotten rich.… pic.twitter.com/r3yyOuI6ta

— Jesse Watters (@JesseBWatters) November 15, 2024

Lara Logan start 5:00min

EXCLUSIVE: Investigative Journalist Lara Logan Joins Alex Jones To Defend Freedom Of Speech

She Describes The Moment Her Research Indicated The Infowars Shutdown Is A Pivotal First Amendment/Censorship Issue@laralogan

WATCH THE LIVE SHOW HERE:https://t.co/yvxqnhaweY pic.twitter.com/JoP3gMC9sC

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) November 15, 2024

Perhaps fitting that the best(?!) overview comes from Russia.

• This Time Trump Really Means Business (Lukyanov)

US President-elect Donald Trump has moved quickly to form his proposed new administration. His team is better prepared to take power than it was in 2016 – when neither the candidate himself nor the vast majority of his supporters believed he could win. It’s too early to draw far-reaching conclusions, but in general, the composition of the preferred government reflects the ideological and political coalition that has gathered around the president-elect. From the outside, it may look motley, but so far it is all in line with Trump’s views. Contrary to the perception actively propagated by Trump’s opponents, he is not an unpredictable and inconsistent eccentric. More precisely, we should separate his character and mannerisms, which are flighty, from his overall worldview. The latter has not changed, not only in the years since Trump entered big politics, but more generally in his public life since the 1980s.

It suffices to look through the old interviews of the famed tycoon to see this: ‘Communism (in the broadest sense) is evil’, ‘the allies must pay up’, ‘the American leadership does not know how to make favorable deals but I do’, and so on. Trump’s personal qualities are important. But more importantly, in a somewhat cartoonish way, he embodies a set of classic Republican notions. America is at the center of the universe. However, not as a hegemon that rules everything, but simply as the best and most powerful country. It must be the strongest, including (or especially) militarily, in order to advance its interests wherever and whenever it needs to. Essentially, there is no need for Washington to get directly involved in world affairs at all. Profit is an absolute imperative for the future president (he is a businessman), and this does not contradict conservative ideals. America is a country built on the spirit of enterprise.

Hence his rejection of over-regulation and his general suspicion of the extensive powers of the bureaucracy. In this, Trump joins forces with the equally flamboyant libertarian Elon Musk, who promises to rid the state of a hodgepodge of bureaucrats. Musk himself is unlikely to be hanging around the president’s office for long, but politicians who think along these lines are likely to be there. An important difference between the new Trump cohort and traditional Republicans is a significantly lower degree of ideologization of politics in general and international politics in particular. Domestically, the rejection of an aggressive agenda in the spirit of the Woke movement and the imposition of the cult of minorities (which the Republicans call ‘Marxism’ and ‘communism’) plays an important role. It’s about imposition, because the human right to any lifestyle is not in itself questioned by conservatives.

For example, key figures around Trump – ardent supporter and former ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell and billionaire Peter Thiel – are married to men. In foreign policy, the conceptual difference is that Trump and his entourage do not believe, as the Biden White House does, that at the core of international relations is the struggle of democracies against autocracies. This does not mean ideological neutrality. The idea of the ‘free world’ and criticism of ‘communism’ (in which they include China, Cuba, Venezuela, and by inertia, Russia) plays an important role in the thinking of many Republicans. But the defining factor is something else – intolerance of those who for various reasons do not accept American supremacy.

Trump’s choice for national security adviser, Michael Waltz, for example, speaks negatively and disparagingly of Russia, but not in terms of a need to be ‘re-educated’, but because it interferes with America. Marco Rubio, who is being considered for secretary of state, does not oppose regime change in his ancestral homeland of Cuba, but is otherwise not a militant supporter of American intervention anywhere. The undoubted priority of the Trumpists and those who have joined them is to support Israel and confront its opponents, first and foremost Iran. Last year, Elise Stefanik, the likely US ambassador to the UN, publicly shamed the presidents of leading American universities in Congress for alleged anti-Semitism. It is worth remembering that the only really effective use of force in Trump’s first term was the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the head of the special forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Trump is not a warrior. Threats, pressure, violent demonstrations – yes. A large-scale armed campaign and mass bloodshed – why? Perhaps because of the peculiarities of relations with China, which is clearly seen as the number one rival. Not in a military sense, but rather in the political and economic sphere, so any ‘war’ with it (forcing it to accept terms favorable to America) should be cold and ruthless. This also applies in part to Russia, though the situation is very different. All of this is neither good nor bad for Moscow. Or to put it another way, it’s both good and bad. But the main thing is that it is not the way it has been up to now.

How far will Trump go in implementing The American System?

• Your Trump Investment Guide (James Rickards)

Now that Trump is on his way to the White House as the 47th president, it’s not too soon to start building a portfolio that will outperform the stock market in the early years of the new Trump administration. This kind of active asset allocation requires close attention to prospective policy details and their possible impact on specific business models. Not all stocks will perform well under the new administration. Some will perform brilliantly. Let’s first review the likely Trump policies and then consider their impact on certain stocks and sectors. The Revival of the American System. Under the guidance of Trump advisors Robert Lighthizer (former U.S. Trade Representative) and Peter Navarro (former Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy), Trump will pursue a twenty-first-century version of what was originally known as the American System.

The American System was invented in 1790 by Alexander Hamilton and supported by a succession of U.S. presidents and leading political figures including George Washington, Henry Clay, John Quincy Adams, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, Calvin Coolidge, and Dwight Eisenhower. There were opponents who favored agrarian interests over manufacturing interests, including early members of what later became the Democratic Party such as Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe. Yet, their financial failures, including the liquidation of the First Bank of the United States (an early central bank with limited powers) and difficulties in financing the War of 1812 led to the success of the mercantilist and manufacturing programs of the American System leaders.

The American System relied on the following policies:
• High tariffs to support manufacturing and high-paying jobs
• Infrastructure investment (public and private) to support productivity
• A strong army and navy to protect the U.S. but not to fight foreign wars
• A central bank with limited powers to provide liquidity to commerce

To the extent there was government spending, it was for productive projects such as canal and road building and later to support railroads. To the extent that early central banks existed, they were for secure lending to sound entities (including the U.S. government) and not for purposes such as printing money, fixing interest rates or “stimulus.” The entire program could be summarized as sound money, smart investment and a strong military in the service of high-paying American jobs. The American System prevailed from 1790 to 1962 with occasional periods of agrarian ascendency and some disruptions such as the Civil War. Beginning after World War I, the neo-liberal movement of Austrian economists and libertarians began to promote globalist policies of open borders, open capital accounts, and free trade. Of course, free trade is a myth because of subsidies and non-tariff barriers. Comparative advantage is obsolete because the factors of production are highly mobile.

Taiwan had no comparative advantage in semiconductors in 1979, but today they dominate global production. They made that happen through a Taiwanese version of the American System. In contrast, the neo-liberals were living an ideological fantasy in which globalism was to displace sovereignty. At a minimum, their goal was the encasement of sovereigns in a larger orb of multilateral institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, WTO and the United Nations. Beginning with the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the Trade Act of 1974, and successive rounds under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (today the WTO), the U.S. embraced the neo-liberal consensus including drastic tariff cuts. As jobs moved offshore to take advantage of cheap labor, capital followed as direct foreign investment.

The result was the hollowing-out of U.S. manufacturing, wage stagnation, slower growth, greater debt, and a succession of failed wars. The open border policy of Biden-Harris is consistent with neo-liberal views on the end of sovereignty but is a death knell for American jobs and social cohesion. Trump, Lighthizer, Navarro, and others will return the United States to the pre-1962 glory days with the revival of the American System. Foreign companies will be free to sell goods to Americans but only if they are manufactured in the U.S. This will lead to a wave of inbound investment in the U.S., a reduction in U.S. trade deficits, a stronger dollar (as the world demands dollars to invest here), and higher wages for U.S. workers. Higher wages will raise real incomes, stimulate consumption, decrease income inequality and expand the tax base to help reduce deficits without raising tax rates.

“The meltdown has gotten so heavy liberal bureaucrats are ready to form antigovernment militias and fretting about black helicopters” – Max Blumenthal

• The Great ‘Splainin’ Cometh (James Howard Kunstler)

In July 27, 1794, the non-insane members of the Convention, or national legislative body in Paris, suddenly turned on the rabid Jacobin leader Maximillian Robespierre and overthrew his ruling tyrannical bunch — who had killed 40,000 of their fellow countrymen in the paranoid orgy known as The Reign of Terror. The next day, Robespierre rode the tumbrel to his own appointment with “the national razor” and the Thermidorian Reaction was on! By the way, in one of their many acts disordering French society, the Jacobins had changed the calendar, renamed all the months, and changed the weeks from seven to ten days (to eliminate Sundays as a holy day of rest in their anti-church crusade). Thus, Thermidor, the month of mid-summer. This was but a small part of their proto-communist agenda, but you see in it the flavor of their radical extremism.

The Woke Democrats of recent times were our Jacobins, and the election of November 5, 2024, marks the kick-off of America’s Thermidorian Reaction. The crazies have been overthrown and our country awaits a restoration of norms in culture and law. No more sexualizing of children, no more flood of criminal mutts across the US border, no more furtive censorship of public speech, no more creative lawfare, no more women on the battlefield, no more “anti-racist” racism in the workplace, no more intel takeover of everyone’s private life. . . you get the picture. Many abiding mysteries about how this happened — even of what exactly did happen — remain to be sorted out by law and by history. That is probably because so much of the Woke Revolution was provoked by state-of-the-art mind-fuckery out of the giant intel blob’s psy-ops lab.

This blob, you understand, had grown to be a colossal racketeering operation with many branches and ever-spreading roots, and it cast its spells over the populace to protect these interests — which, of course, involved huge revenue streams. Perhaps its most potent spell was the manipulation of women’s emotion, harnessing female psychodrama as the propellant for mass social discord. In a nation of absent fathers, damaged children, and broken male-female relations, Donald Trump was painted as the ultimate archetypal tyrant Daddy figure to deflect the public’s attention from the actual tyranny growing under the US intel blob and its Globalist sidekicks. Case in point: RussiaGate, a long-running hysteria of fabricated accusations, a fabulous medley of scurrilous gossip, engineered at the highest levels of our government for the express purpose of wrecking Mr. Trump’s first term in office. “Witch hunt” was exactly the right term.

Many more psychodramas followed, all of them artificially cooked up by various branches of the blob: impeachments #1 and #2; the FBI-induced J-6 riot and the fake House J-6 inquiry that followed; the roll-out of DOJ-inspired fake criminal and civil cases that tied-up Mr. Trump in courtrooms through the year, and most especially the hostile news media’s presentation of all these things as one great big everlasting frenzy of on-screen women shrieking at the Daddy-figure, Donald Trump, like thirteen-year-old girls in fugues of hormonal disruption. The voters, subject to years of trips laid on them, were eventually able to see through all this induced psychodrama as to how they were being manipulated, and on November 5, they finally revolted.

Their quandary was probably epitomized by the absurdity of watching men in women’s sports — spiking volleyballs on the girls’ heads, bashing them on the lacrosse field, humiliating them in the swim lanes — and, more to the point, being helpless to do anything about it, because the officials in-charge under “Joe Biden” said it must be, no matter what you think and feel about what you are seeing. The New York Times, your field-guide to blob-think, is warning its dwindling readership of psychodrama addicts that Donald Trump will now take out his “grievances” on the noble, self-sacrificing bureaucracy that manages things so well in this land. As usual, The Times misleads and misinforms. These are the grievances of the nation that has seen its law and its culture twisted into new orders of wickedness that leave daily life in the USA perverted, dishonored, and grotesquefied.

So now Mr. Trump has picked a cabinet that scares the blob to death — for good reason. They are aiming to systematically disarm and disassemble the blob. They are a team of serious and intelligent warriors and they mean business, in particular Gaetz, Gabbard, Kennedy, Ratcliffe, and Homan, with Elon and Vivek riding shotgun. (A new FBI Director has not yet been named.) You must wonder how the blob is planning to defend itself, for it surely will resist.

Many of us believe that the two recent assassination attempts against the now-President-elect were blob-sponsored operations. Everybody expects they’ll try again. But it’s possible that the American system still has enough mojo to self-correct. A whole lot of public officials have a whole lot of ‘splainin’ to do. It looks like they will be compelled to now, including the public health officers who brought us Covid-19 and the mandated, ineffective-and-harmful mRNA vaccines. There’s every reason to believe that the ‘splainin’ can take place in correct proceedings according to law: hearings, grand juries, courts. We do have actual laws against racketeering, abuse of power, election fraud, bribery, malicious prosecution, sedition, treason, and conspiracy to commit all those crimes. Pay attention: all that is distinct from lawfare, which is making-up crimes, faking crimes, and faking procedure. You are going to see a demonstration of how law differs from lawfare. It ought to have a salutary effect on our national esprit. And that should motivate us to get on with the job of repairing the damage done to our country.

Seamlessly switching from Trump to Musk.

• Democratic Senators Demand Musk Be Probed For Russia Ties (RT)

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk should be investigated over media claims that he communicated with several senior Russian officials in recent years, two top Democratic senators have demanded in a letter. Jack Reed, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Jeanne Shaheen, a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee, raised concerns about the media allegations in a letter to US Attorney General Merrick Garland and Pentagon Inspector General Robert Storch on Friday. In October, at the height of the US presidential election, the Wall Street Journal claimed that Musk had communicated with several top Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, as recently as this year.

Musk oversees billions of dollars in US government contracts as CEO of SpaceX. As the tech billionaire claims to hold top secret level security clearance, and manages extremely sensitive government contracts, his potential communication with Russia is a risk, the senators said. “These relationships between a well-known US adversary and Mr. Musk, a beneficiary of billions of dollars in US government funding, pose serious questions regarding Mr. Musk’s reliability as a government contractor and a clearance holder,” they wrote. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blasted the pre-election WSJ claims about the billionaire’s alleged phone calls with Putin as “disinformation.” Historically, there was only one call between the two, he said.

“It was before 2022, they spoke over the telephone,” Peskov stated, adding that they discussed Russia’s scientific progress, and likely future developments. “There were no contacts between Musk and Putin after that, and all claims otherwise are false.” The spokesman noted the claims are likely related to the “extremely confrontational electoral political fight” in the US. After his victory in the US presidential race, Donald Trump announced that Musk will head the future Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The initiative will aim to cut trillions of dollars in “waste and fraud” in annual US government spending, “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies,” Trump said on Thursday. Musk said his role in DOGE “is going to be a revolution.”

“The Israeli media term it a ‘dream team’ for Netanyahu. It certainly looks that way.”

• There Are No “Easy Wars” Left To Fight (Alastair Crooke)

Israelis, as a whole, are exhibiting a rosy assurance that they can harness Trump, if not to the full annexation of the Occupied Territories (Trump in his first term did not support such annexation), but rather, to ensnare him into a war on Iran. Many (even most) Israelis are raring for war on Iran and an aggrandisement of their territory (devoid of Arabs). They are believing the puffery that Iran ‘lies naked’, staggeringly vulnerable, before a U.S. and Israeli military strike. Trump’s Team nominations, so far, reveal a foreign policy squad of fierce supporters of Israel and of passionate hostility to Iran. The Israeli media term it a ‘dream team’ for Netanyahu. It certainly looks that way. The Israel Lobby could not have asked for more. They have got it. And with the new CIA chief, they get a known ultra China hawk as a bonus.

But in the domestic sphere the tone is precisely the converse: The key nomination for ‘cleaning the stables’ is Matt Gaetz as Attorney General; he is a real “bomb thrower”. And for the Intelligence clean-up, Tulsi Gabbard is appointed as Director of National Intelligence. All intelligence agencies will report to her, and she will be responsible for the President’s Daily briefing. The intel assessments may thus begin to reflect something closer to reality. The deep Inter-Agency structure has reason to be very afraid; they are panicking – especially over Gaetz. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have the near impossible task of cutting out-of-control federal spending and currency printing. The System is deeply dependent on the bloat of government spending to keep the cogs and levers of the mammoth ‘security’ boondoggle whirring. It is not going to be yielded up without a bitter fight.

So, on the one hand, the Lobby gets a dream team (Israel), but on the other side (the domestic sphere), it gets a renegade team. This must be deliberate. Trump knows that Biden’s legacy of bloating GDP with government jobs and excessive public spending is the real ‘time bomb’ awaiting him. Again the withdrawal symptoms, as the drug of easy money is withdrawn, may prove incendiary. Moving to a structure of tariffs and low taxes will be disruptive. Whether deliberate or not, Trump is keeping his cards close to his chest. We have only glimpses of intent – and the water is being seriously muddied by the infamous ‘Inter-Agency’ grandees. For example, in respect to the Pentagon sanctioning private-sector contractors to work in Ukraine, this was done in coordination with “inter-agency stakeholders”.

The old nemesis that paralysed his first term again faces Trump. Then, during the Ukraine impeachment process, one witness (Vindman), when asked why he would not defer to the President’s explicit instructions, replied that whilst Trump has his view on Ukraine policy, that stance did NOT align with that of the ‘Inter-Agency’ agreed position. In plain language, Vindman denied that a U.S. president has agency in foreign policy formulation. In short, the ‘Inter-Agency structure’ was signalling to Trump that military support for Ukraine must continue. When the Washington Post published their detailed story of a Trump-Putin phone call – that the Kremlin emphatically states never happened – the deep structures of policy were simply telling Trump that it would be they who determine what the shape of the U.S. ‘solution’ for Ukraine would be.

“If you work for the FDA and are part of this corrupt system, I have two messages for you: 1. Preserve your records, and 2. Pack your bags..”

• RFK Jr. vs. Big Pharma Goliath: Drug Makers, Big Food and the FDA (Sp.)

Donald Trump has tapped Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS chief – the top advisor to the president on health-related matters, and chief administrator overseeing the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, Medicare and Medicaid. Here’s what he can actually do to make real change. Fixing even a fraction of the problems contributing to America’s health crisis could prove daunting, with the nation facing an obesity epidemic (over 70% of American adults are obese or overweight), an addiction scourge (15% use illicit drugs, 20% suffer from alcohol dependency), a prescription drug crisis (66% use at least one prescription medication), contaminated drinking water (a concern for nearly half of the population), skyrocketing autism (which affects one in 36 children, compared to about one per 1,000 in the 1980s), and other serious health-related issues.

Kennedy has recognized the gargantuan scope of the challenge, saying in a recent interview that the US health care system as it’s presently set up means there’s “nothing more profitable” than keeping Americans sick “for life,” with chronic disease a big business he estimates to be worth some $4.3 trln (i.e. about five times the size of the US’s 2024 defense budget). Kennedy has yet to lay out the details of his agenda as potential Trump Health and Human Services Secretary, including for make good on promises to rein in Big Pharma, but has dropped important hints in recent interviews and speeches about:
• negotiating with drug companies on medication costs,
• barring major pharmaceuticals from being able to spend billions of dollars on television advertising, which he has characterized as a disguised form of lobbying and insurance against media criticism,
• ending vaccine mandates, at least for federal agencies and the military, and lobbying to do so at the state level, while preserving Americans’ rights to make an informed choice,
• reforming vaccine research standards. Kennedy has been outspoken in his criticism of former chief presidential medical advisor Anthony Fauci and others at the NIH over US-funded gain of function research thought to have ultimately caused the Covid crisis.

As Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kennedy would also be responsible for America’s food safety regulations, an area of government he has said repeatedly has been captured by big corporations. On this front, Kennedy could:
• encourage municipalities to get rid of fluoride in tap water, citing fluoride’s long-suspected impact IQ levels in children,
• push to ban or at least restrict artificial food coloring, additives and chemicals,
• restrict processed foods in school lunches, and roll back subsidies for corn and soy,
• end perceive FDA overregulation on “stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma,” as he suggested in a recent X post.
• RFK Jr. also wants federally-funded medical schools to focus more on nutrition, and to create a national fitness standard like the one promoted by his uncle – President John F. Kennedy.

Kennedy has promised to take on conflicts of interest between regulators and the entities they’re meant to be regulating – citing money given to the FDA by Big Pharma, and corporate links to health and dietary advisories. The HSS Secretary job requires Senate approval, meaning Kennedy’s selection could become a daunting uphill battle come January, especially if Big Pharma and Big Food use their lobbying muscle to pull strings to block his appointment. Battle lines are already being drawn, with GOP senators promising to give him a shot, calling his selection “a bad day for Big Pharma,” and his candidacy a “brilliant” move by Donald Trump. Senate Democrats have rushed to dub Kennedy a “fringe conspiracy theorist” spouting “outlandish views on basic scientific facts,” over his much-publicized vaccine hesitancy, and argued that his selection “would be nothing short of a disaster.”

Senior officials from agencies Kennedy would be tasked with overseeing also called him out, with Clinton-era HHS chief Donna Shalala saying he’s “totally unqualified” and “dangerous” to America and the world. Former Obama HHS chief Kathleen Sebilius, meanwhile, has expressed hopes that Kennedy would get bogged down in the agency’s bureaucracy. “He has no organizational management experience, and HHS is one of the largest domestic organizations,” she said, highlighting the agency’s 83,000 employee workforce and massive $1.7 trillion budget. Kennedy has expressed readiness to work with the HHS and its subordinate agencies, but warned naysayers in top jobs, including at the FDA, that he will not tolerate efforts to block his initiatives. “If you work for the FDA and are part of this corrupt system, I have two messages for you: 1. Preserve your records, and 2. Pack your bags,” he wrote in a tweet last month.

.@RobertKennedyJr outlines his plan to eliminate pharmaceutical ads on TV, ensure transparent access to federal health databases, and put an end to corrupt practices within the medical journal industry.

"I'm not intimidated by the agencies. I know how they work and how to change… pic.twitter.com/HBgbTxz8bj

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) November 15, 2024

RFK Jr. ‘has no vaccine denialism’: Dr. Drew Pinsky | On Balance

"When I first interviewed him, he goes, look, I know how to dig into corrupt organizations. I've done it my whole career. And he said, first thing I'm going to do, and I don't know if you saw the announcement,… pic.twitter.com/n9Ebl9UYxN

— Camus (@newstart_2024) November 15, 2024

“That the Democrats stood down from stealing the presidency in 2024 doesn’t mean they didn’t steal House and Senate seats..”

• Has Matt Gaetz Been Set-up for Eviction from Public Life? (Paul Craig Roberts)

I have had a horrible thought. Of all of Trump’s appointees, Matt Gaetz and Robert Kennedy will be the most difficult to get confirmed. And Gaetz has resigned from the House of Representatives where he is the most effective member against the ruling establishment. Was his appointment as Attorney General a trick to get him out of public life? Robert Kennedy’s appointment was said to be in doubt because he would be hard to confirm, but so would Gaetz. Gaetz’s high profile powerful position scares to death the corrupt Justice (sic) Department, the corrupt FBI, the corrupt Democrats, and the corrupt ruling elites. Perhaps the Senate will let Trump have his appointments without confirmation as recess appointments, so non-confirmation is not an issue.

It is revealing that there were no confirmation worries about Trump’s appointments of his Zionist war cabinet. Some claim that it is not a war cabinet, that Stefanik, Waltz, Rubio, and Hegseth have been cured of their Zionism by Israel’s massacre of Palestinians. Perhaps, but I have not heard a recantation from a single one of the “die-for-Israel” crowd. Certainly, Huckabee, sent by Trump as ambassador to Israel, and Witkoff, sent by Trump as his Special Envoy to the Middle East, will not take exception to Israel’s claim to title to Palestine. So how are they going to bring about any Israeli restraint? Isn’t it curious that Trump didn’t appoint anyone inclined to rein-in Israel?

That the Democrats stood down from stealing the presidency in 2024 doesn’t mean they didn’t steal House and Senate seats. The Republicans barely did well enough to change a thin Democrat Senate majority into a thin Republican majority, and it seems there was little, if any, change in the House. In contrast, when Reagan won in 1980 the Republicans captured 12 Democrat seats in the Senate. It is suspicious that Trump’s convincing win did not carry over into Congress.

Trump is taking Republican members of Congress as appointees into his administration. Republican governors can appoint replacements until the next election, but the appointed replacements might be vulnerable as they were not elected. Matt Gaetz was secure in his base. Will his appointed replacement be as secure? We can be thankful that Trump has appointed some officials who fight for the correct causes. We can keep hoping that Trump will make a difference.

NEW – Who is Rep. Matt Gaetz? —— Supercut of the Firebrand’s Top Moments in Under Three Minutes | @mattgaetz

The return of unapologetic, bold conservatism has a new face in Washington, and it’s none other than @RepMattGaetz (R-FL).

Gaetz, a fierce defender of President Trump… pic.twitter.com/We11kt4cjj

— Overton (@overton_news) November 15, 2024

DOJ and the regime media are terrified at an AG Matt Gaetz because he’ll blow the lid off January 6.

Here he is with @mtgreenee calling it a “fedsurrection.” (Credit @DarrenJBeattie) pic.twitter.com/B7smprVKNb

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) November 14, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/status/1857135399887405420

“It is likely that Trump appointed her to shake up the intel community, which is regarded by many as the black heart of the deep state..”

• Tulsi Gabbard Right Pick to Shake-Up US Spy Agencies – Giraldi (Sp.)

President-elect Donald Trump nominated the former Democratic congresswoman and a 21-year army reserve veteran to oversee the bewildering array of 18 US spy agencies in his incoming administration. “A foreign policy and national security appointment that has created considerable dissent is that of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence [DNI],” Philip Giraldi, a former CIA operations officer with experience in Europe and the Middle East, told Sputnik. The CIA veteran said much of the dissent comes from inside the ‘intelligence community’, including active officers and former staff of organizations like the CIA and NSA. Objections to Gabbard’s nomination have focused on her lack of intelligence experience, claiming she will “be unable to perceive problems among an unruly 18-member intelligence community,” the pundit said.

But Giraldi countered that she was “smart, experienced and capable enough to gather her own staff around her that will guide her way through the shoals of Washington DC.” “To my mind, she is an excellent choice, coming from outside of the intelligence community ‘club,’ and could be an effective and ethical DNI,” he added. The former CIA officer noted that Gabbard is viewed as a “peace candidate” for her opposition to endless overseas wars, the US military occupation of parts of Syria and the demonization of China. But she is also known for her support for Israel, currently waging a war against the Palestinian territory of Gaza. “It is likely that Trump appointed her to shake up the intel community, which is regarded by many as the black heart of the deep state,” Giraldi said. “She will, of course, be both helped and handicapped by being provided with plenty of ‘direction’ by a president who is fundamentally ignorant of foreign policy and national security issues.”

“If Gaetz gets in, I do believe he will cut the legs out from under the giant lawfare operation that has grown up around his office in recent years..”

• Tulsi and the Establishment Meltdown (Tom Woods)

[..] let me say a quick something about Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Matt Gaetz as Attorney General. Tulsi is said to be “unqualified” because she doesn’t come from the existing cabal of liars and propagandists who have never told the American public the truth in their lives. Rep. Abigail Spanberger in particular is horrified at the prospect that our intelligence world might not bombard us 24 hours a day with lies that would insult a second grader: “As a former CIA case officer, I saw the men and women of the U.S. intelligence community put their lives on the line every day for this country — and I am appalled at the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard to lead DNI. Not only is she ill-prepared and unqualified, but she traffics [sic] in conspiracy theories and cozies up to dictators like Bashar-al Assad and Vladimir Putin. As a Member of the House Intelligence Committee, I am deeply concerned about what this nomination portends for our national security.”

Rep. Spanberger is a “former CIA case officer,” which means we should favor the opposite of whatever she says. She claims to be concerned about “conspiracy theories,” when it was contractors with her beloved CIA who spun the absurd theory that Russia had come up with the story about Hunter Biden’s laptop (honestly, if you’re going to pretend a foreign power invented a story, make it not as weird and random as “the president’s son had a laptop with stuff on it”). She is deeply worried about someone who “cozies up to dictators” — the CIA would never do that! It just installs them. Here’s what our friend Dave Smith had to say about the present situation:

“A lot of crazy things have happened in this country over the last few years, so you may have forgotten this one minor story from eight years ago: The US intelligence agencies framed the sitting US President for treason. They all knew that Donald Trump wasn’t involved in a conspiracy with the Russians, but they lied. Well, that President is back AND the boss of the Intelligence agencies is now, not only someone completely outside of that conspiracy, but someone who was slandered with that same accusation, by the same nasty woman whose campaign came up with the whole Trump frame job to begin with.”

Interesting times. As for Matt Gaetz, they really don’t like him. John Bolton says Gaetz “must be the worst nomination for a cabinet position in American history.” National Review Online has a predictable article against him. JD Vance snapped back: “The main issue with Matt Gaetz is that he used his office to prosecute his political opponents and authorized federal agents to harass parents who were peacefully protesting at school board meetings. Oh wait, that’s actually Merrick Garland, the current attorney general.” They’re appalled that the attorney general isn’t being chosen from D.C. swampdom, because that’s what they’ve come to expect. But John F. Kennedy didn’t do that, and neither did Ronald Reagan. If Gaetz gets in, I do believe he will cut the legs out from under the giant lawfare operation that has grown up around his office in recent years — and this, rather than genuine concerns about his qualifications (these people care about qualifications all of a sudden?) is what the people screaming about him are actually worried about.

“Do not let his various degrees fool you. He is neither an egg-headed nor lace-curtained lawyer. He is an intellectual who knows how to scrap..”

• Trump Makes Brilliant Choice for the Next White House Counsel (Turley)

President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General has consumed most of the media attention in the last week. Indeed, it seems to have sucked the oxygen out of this city. The media frenzy over Gaetz and a couple of other nominations has served to brush over an appointment that should be universally praised: William McGinley as the next White House Counsel. I had the pleasure of teaching Bill at George Washington Law School, and he is ideal for this position, particularly at this critical time in our country. Bill was one of my students in first-year torts in the mid-1990s. He was a gifted student who knew early on that he wanted to work along the borderline of law and politics. It is an area where GW has long excelled, and Bill was quickly recognized as one of the rising stars among young Republican lawyers. (Notably, Bill attended my class a couple years after prior Trump counselor Kellyanne Conway).

Bill received a B.A. in history from UCLA and a master’s in history from California State University. During his first summer, when other students were seeking summer internships with firms, Bill clerked for the Republic National Committee (RNC) and delved into the world of law, politics, and policy. Upon his graduation, his rise in the profession can only be described as meteoric. At a young age, he would serve as Deputy General Counsel to the RNC and coordinate the national campaigns for candidates and ballot initiatives. He also served as counsel to the RNC Standing Committee on Rules, the powerful group that establishes the framework for the party and its conventions. Bill ultimately became the General Counsel to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) before becoming a partner at some of the most prestigious law firms, including Patton Boggs and Jones Day.

He also remained active as an alumnus at GW Law School, supporting other students in pursuing their careers in Washington, D.C., and other cities. Bill has all the qualities of an ideal White House Counsel. He can offer the President the clarity of judgment and foresight needed in this position, which requires the authority to give needed direction on the best course for achieving goals and unwanted advice when needed. That is the model of past successful White House Counsels, like the late C. Boyden Gray. It requires the trust of a president that, while the advice is sometimes inconvenient, his counsel seeks to facilitate, not frustrate, his legacy.

Bill is a tenacious and seasoned fighter with the “street cred” to be taken seriously by everyone in this city. He also has a deep-seated love for the law and legal education. Trump found a White House counsel who knows this city and how to get things done despite the deep partisan divides. Do not let his various degrees fool you. He is neither an egg-headed nor lace-curtained lawyer. He is an intellectual who knows how to scrap. He is someone who not only has a deep understanding of history but also someone who knows how to make history. Trump picked wisely with Bill McGinley, and I am particularly proud of his success as a leader in our profession.

“Section 230 only confers benefits on Big Tech companies when they operate, in the words of the statute, “in good faith.”

• X Sees Return Of Major Advertisers Under Fire From FCC (ZH)

While Mark Cuban and other sore losers are leaving X to shout into the void, several major advertisers have returned to the platform. Comcast, IBM, Disney, Warner Brothers, Discovery and Lionsgate Entertainment have all resumed ad spending on the social media giant – albeit this is more of a toe-dip than a full recommitment. According to Adweek, the brands collectively spent less than $3.3 million on X from January to September 2024, a far cry from the $170 million spent during the same period in 2023. Either way, it’s an admission that pulling ad spend over ‘hate speech’ and ‘antisemitism’ was nothing more than a giant virtue signal, particularly considering Facebook and Instagram’s long history of providing a safe forum for child sexual abuse. While a global survey by Kantar of senior marketers across 20 countries found that 26% of them plan to cut spending on X in 2025, the 2024 election may have changed that.

“X’s owner now has the ear of the president-elect, a man who has a long history of helping his friends, and punishing his enemies,” said Max Willens, senior analyst at Emarketer. “Sending at least a trickle of ad spending toward X may be seen as good for business, albeit in an indirect way.” Speaking of the tide turning, the woke cabal of advertisers trying to starve conservative platforms out of a voice is now coming under fire (have we mentioned lately that we really appreciate our premium subscribers?). In a Wednesday letter to Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Apple, and Meta, FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr accused them of having “participated in a censorship cartel that included not only technology and social media companies but advertising, marketing, and so-called “fact-checking” organizations as well as the Biden-Harris Administration itself.”

“The relevant conduct extended from removing or blocking social media posts to suppress their information and viewpoints, including through efforts to delist them, lower their rankings, or harm their profitability.” Carr then suggested that their protection from liability under Section 230 may be on the line. “As you know, Big Tech’s prized liability shield, Section 230, is codified in the Communications Act, which the FCC administers. As relevant here, Section 230 only confers benefits on Big Tech companies when they operate, in the words of the statute, “in good faith.” Wow… Carr then set his sights on NewsGuard – which Jonathan Turley notes has been long accused by conservatives “of targeting conservative and libertarian sites and carrying out the agenda of its co-founder Steven Brill. Conversely, many media outlets have heralded his efforts to identify disinformation sites for advertisers and agencies.”

Basically, NewsGuard bombards conservative sites with struggle-session questionnaire emails demanding explanations for the slightest of indiscretions, after which they issue a “report card” that advertisers use to justify pulling ad spend. As Carr notes in the letter; “It is in this context that I am writing to obtain information about your work with the one specific organization – the Orwellian named NewsGuard. As exposed by the Twitter Files, NewsGuard is a for-profit company that operates as part of the broader censorship cartel. Indeed, NewsGuard bills itself as the Internet’s arbiter of truth or, as its co-founder put it, a “Vaccine Against Misinformation.” Newsguard purports to rate the credibility of news and information outlets and tells readers and advertisers which outlets they can trust.” Carr suggests following NewsGuard’s ratings may constitute a violation of Section 230 (this is huge).

“..we need to find out if members of the German government were aware of this incident before or after it occurred..”

• Germany’s AfD Urges UN to Investigate Nord Stream (Sp.)

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has called on the United Nations to prosecute an inquiry into the Nord Sream pipelines explosions and find out whether government officials were aware of this incident, party’s co-chair Tino Chrupalla said. “We believe that the incident needs to be thoroughly investigated, and those responsible must be held accountable. In particular, we need to find out if members of the German government were aware of this incident before or after it occurred. We have called for the establishment of an inquiry commission in the European Parliament and are now calling for a UN investigation,” Chrupalla told Turkish newspaper Aydinlik.

The Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, built to deliver gas under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Europe, were hit by explosions on September 26, 2022. Germany, Denmark and Sweden have not ruled out deliberate sabotage. The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has opened an investigation into it as an act of international terrorism. Russia has repeatedly requested data on other countries’ investigations into the explosions, but never received it, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

“The Ukrainian leader governs like a king leading a “terrorist organization..”

• Trump’s Win Means End Of Zelensky – Ukrainian MP (RT)

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election means that Vladimir Zelensky will soon be removed from power, which will be great for Ukraine, exiled lawmaker Artyom Dmitruk has told RT. The Ukrainian MP fled from his home country earlier this year, saying he feared for his safety after taking a public stance against Kiev’s crackdown on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. He went to the UK and is currently fighting an extradition request, which he claims is based on fabricated charges issued at Zelensky’s orders. The Ukrainian leader governs like a king leading a “terrorist organization,” Dmitruk said in an interview on Thursday, citing the effects that Zelensky’s policies had on the country. The incumbent government does not care about Ukrainian lives, persecutes political opponents, and enriches officials through corruption, he alleged.

“This man, he has managed to steal more than all previous presidents who robbed Ukraine. His money certainly has more blood on it than anyone’s,” the lawmaker said. Zelensky’s team was counting on Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election, which would have allowed the grift to continue, Dmitruk believes. He sees Trump’s victory as “a clear signal that their power is coming to an end.” “Zelensky must go,” he asserted. “I say: liberate Ukraine from Zelensky. This is my key political slogan.” “As a citizen, I wish Ukrainian issues were decided by Ukraine itself,” he added. “But thanks to all our previous presidents we have lost… sovereignty. Unfortunately, others now have to decide for us.” Dmitruk does not expect Trump to end the conflict “in 24 hours,” which he said he would do if elected. But reaching a peace deal would secure the president-elect’s legacy, which gives him a strong incentive to deliver, he reasoned.

“When given a choice between peace and war, Zelensky helped himself by choosing war..”

• No Use Blaming Britain For Kiev’s War Policy – Ukrainian MP (RT)

Kiev’s confirmation that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson derailed peace talks with Russia in 2022 is an attempt to avoid responsibility for Vladimir Zelensky’s decision to seek a military victory, exiled Ukrainian MP Artyom Dmitruk asserted in an interview with RT on Thursday. Moscow and Kiev held several rounds of talks shortly after the conflict escalated in February 2022. In Istanbul, the two sides preliminarily agreed a draft truce, but Kiev later rejected the document and pulled out of the talks. David Arakhamia, the Zelensky-allied MP who led the Ukrainian delegation, confirmed in November 2023 that Johnson, the British prime minister at the time, had advised Kiev not to sign anything and “just continue fighting.” “Don’t put your responsibility on Britain and Boris Johnson personally. What is that? Is that some hide-and-seek game?” Dmitruk, a vocal critic of Zelensky, said.

The Ukrainian leader’s popularity was rapidly dwindling before the hostilities with Russia started, the lawmaker pointed out. The conflict provided justification to remain in power and keep enriching himself and his inner circle, he alleged. Zelensky’s term as president expired in May, but he refused to transfer power to the parliament speaker as mandated by the Ukrainian constitution. “Terrifying things happen during war. Terrifying things that generate huge money, bigger than anything anyone could ever make in Ukraine. And he leads it all,” Dmitruk claimed. When given a choice between peace and war, Zelensky helped himself by choosing war, the MP stated.

Dmitruk fled from his home country earlier this year after publicly criticizing Kiev for its intensifying crackdown on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the country’s largest religious organization, to which Dmitruk belongs. He claims to be a victim of political persecution. The lawmaker described the ouster of Zelensky as a key condition that he hopes will clear the way for peace, a new election, and national reconciliation. He hopes that the expected change in US foreign policy under the incoming president, Donald Trump, will help facilitate that outcome.

It gets crazier as we go along.

• Laboratory Head Given Licence To Lie In Novichok Show Trial (Helmer)

Anthony Hughes, the retired judge (titled Lord Hughes of Ombersley) directing the Dawn Sturgess Inquiry in London, opened the questioning of a senior British Government chemical warfare agent on Wednesday by telling him “you’re not bound by your statement, but by all means use it to refresh your recollection” — page 5. This is a licence to lie. The head of chemical and biological analysis at the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) at Porton Down was given the cipher MK26 to conceal his name — his face screened from view in the videotape of the hearing — to do just that. Hughes also arranged for his assisting counsel, Andrew O’Connor KC, to give the government official this version of the witness oath. “May I ask you,” O’Connor said, “whether you have had an opportunity to read through this statement before giving evidence today? A. Yes, I have. Q. Are its contents true to the best of your knowledge and belief? A. Yes, they are. Q. Thank you.”

As Hughes and O’Connor know very well, the official oath in British courtroom practice is that witness swears his testimony “shall be the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.” In this case, the judge and his lawyer gave the witness a licence not to tell the whole truth. Just in case these licences to lie and to evade the truth were spotted by the public, O’Connor told MK26 that he and Hughes accepted his “statement does not contain everything that you can say about these matters because there are some further issues, further material that is covered by the restriction [secrecy] orders. A. Yes, that’s correct. Q. As a result, it’s right, is it not, that you will be coming back when the Inquiry sits in its closed sessions to give further evidence and on that occasion you will be able to provide the Chair with the information which you cannot provide today? A. Yes.” — page 6.

According to the exhibits MK26 had signed for the Inquiry, of the two pages of witness statement he had signed to the police on July 16, 2018, everything has been blacked out except one short paragraph giving the official accreditation of the workshops MK26 headed at the DSTL Porton Down. A second witness statement MK26 signed for the Coroners Court on August 20, 2019, comprises five pages, but they have all been censored. The only lines which remain say: “I have complied with, and will continue to comply with, my duty to the court to provide independent assistance by way of objective unbiased opinion in relation to matters within my expertise.” At the Bar this is recognized as the Queen Gertrude defence for lying; it comes from “the lady doth protest too much, methinks”, the well-known line from Shakespeare’s Hamlet. A Defence Ministry employee cannot be independent, or objective, or unbiased in relation to his official work orders.

The political significance of the Porton Down lying has been international. It was the foundation of the claim the British Government made to its NATO allies five weeks after Sergei and Yulia Skripal’s collapse that the UK was the target of a Novichok attack by Russia. According to a letter sent to the NATO headquarters by Sir Mark Sedwill, then the Prime Minister’s national security advisor and supervisor of intelligence operations, “I would like to share with you and Allies further information regarding our assessment that it is highly likely that the Russian state was responsible for the Salisbury attack. Only Russia has the technical means, operational experience and the motive. The OPCW’s. [Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons] analysis matches the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory’s [DSTL Porton Down] own, confirming once again the findings of the United Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical of high purity that was used in Salisbury.

OPCW have always been clear that it was their role to identify what substance was used, not who was responsible… of course, the DSTL analysis does not identify the country or laboratory of origin of the agent used in this attack…We therefore continue to judge that only Russia has the technical means, operational experience and motive for the attack on the Skripals and that it is highly likely that the Russian state was responsible. There is no plausible alternative explanation.” Sedwill was lying. Porton Down was lying. OPCW repeated the lies it was given by the British. There was, there still is, a plausible alternative explanation. In his appearance at Hughes’s hearing this week, MK26 tried to conceal this with what an independent British organic chemist with comparable expertise to MK26 describes as “camouflage science – faulty assumptions, missing chemical names, speculative findings, a day of witchcraft.”

Good question.

• How Did A Puritanical Nation End Up Idolizing Transvestites? (Frascolla)

A cause cherished by Mary Shelley and Harriet Taylor Mill’s husband is the equality of women with men. As bad as feminism is, and as bad as the world is for most Western women (who can’t start a family or find fulfillment in their jobs), there’s no denying that, in the 19th century, marriage could leave women to a private despotism of bad husbands. In the 20th century, the Unitarians were advocating for the equality of black people and, later, for gay people. What did the feminist, black and gay causes have in common? The fact that they proposed social reforms that went against society (it’s worth remembering that the U.S. is a country with deep racist roots). In practice, the moral rule ends up being to go against society – and that’s why the U.S. ended up embracing transvestites and putting them to read stories in children’s libraries.

Why did this doctrine gain so much traction in the U.S.? For two reasons, the main one being political liberalism. The United States was even more liberal than England, since, unlike the latter, it never prohibited Catholicism by law. Thus, the United States had nothing remotely similar to the Inquisition, and Unitarianism enjoyed the same freedom as any other religion. There is no room, in the institutional history of the United States, for the category of heretic. Nothing is heresy, everything is religion. Unitarianism spread like wildfire. If in 1774 they founded the first church in England, in 1805 (only 31 years later), they already had the rectorship of Harvard, and in 1825 they already had the sixth president of the United States. The United States became independent and constituted itself as a nation in 1776, that is, only two years after the founding of the Unitarian Church in England. Thus, we can say that the country existed for less than 30 years free of great Unitarian influence.

If the United States, being liberal, cannot adhere to any religious creed, and does not have any strong leader (such as an Emperor or a Supreme Leader), power ends up falling into the hands of technocrats trained by the most important universities. Unitarianism has this convenience of not seeing itself as a religion among others; thus, its principles are easily secularized – so much so that Mill’s On Liberty is a typical work of Unitarianism, but it is not seen as such. In addition to being considered secular, Unitarianism ended up giving rise to theological liberalism (which we have already discussed) and spreading through various churches and even synagogues. Protestants of any denomination ended up being divided between fundamentalists (who denied science) and liberals (who repeated the Unitarians). That is why we see so much transvestites and rainbows in the Episcopal and Anglican Churches, even though the thing arose in the Unitarian Church: both adhered to liberalism, instead of fundamentalism.

In view of this, ladies and gentlemen, what we can conclude is that the adoration of transvestites is an inevitable consequence of liberalism, and that the Inquisition burned too few people.

Stallone

JUST IN: Sylvester Stallone introduces Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, says Trump is like the “second George Washington.”

“We are in the presence of a really mythical character. I love mythology.”

“This individual does not exist on this planet. Nobody in the world could have pulled… pic.twitter.com/3SZn7bOjsM

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 15, 2024

duckpuppy
https://twitter.com/i/status/1857071025617285467

Paddle

A drone captured the incredible moment a whale pushed a paddleboard with its fin.

Maximiliano Jonas filmed the amazing footage off the coast of Puerto Madryn, Argentina

[📹 maxijonas]pic.twitter.com/0tmVnDV6t4

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 15, 2024

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Debt Rattle November 12 2024

Nov 122024

November 12, 2024 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:40 am Finance Tagged with: AfD, enemies list, federal income tax, Homan, Martin Armstrong, mass deportations, Senate majority leader, Trump, unintended honesty 64 Responses »

Sandro Botticelli Portrait of a Young Woman 1480 – 1485

• Mysteries Revealed (Jim Kunstler)

• Rep. Byron Donalds Says ‘Enemies-List’ Rumor Is A Lie (RT)

• Trump Confirms He Has No Choice but to Carry Out Mass Deportations (ET)

• Trump’s Election Produced a Moment of Unintended Honesty (Turley)

• Why the Campaign Against Trump This Time is Different (Turley)

• Senate Majority Leader Race Heats Up (ZH)

• The Economic Challenges Facing the Trump Administration (Jeffrey Tucker)

• Peter Schiff: What’s Next for Trump? (SchiffGold)

• Trump Inherits Turd of an Economy – Ed Dowd (USAW)

• Trump Eliminates Federal Income Tax, Economy Booms – Martin Armstrong (USAW)

• The Fog of War Talk – Favour, Threat (Helmer)

• Biden To Lobby Trump To Not Cut Support For Ukraine (ZH)

• US Could Replace Zelensky – Russian Intel Agency (RT)

• UK and France To Push Biden To Escalate Ukraine Conflict – Telegraph (RT)

• The West’s Very Fundamental Accumulating Contradictions (Alastair Crooke)

• Germany: Move To Ban AfD May Come Before New Elections (RMX)

• How Blind Support For Ukraine Broke Germany (Amar)

Elon Musk "has been seen at Mar-a-Lago nearly every single day since Donald Trump won, dining with him on the patio at times" and "weighing in on staffing decisions, making clear his preference for certain roles," @kaitlancollins reports pic.twitter.com/iIueEaP7mi

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 11, 2024

Homan

JUST IN: Donald Trump announces former ICE director Tom Homan will be his new “Border Czar.”

Here is a previous spat Homan had with AOC.

“I am pleased to announce that the Former
ICE Director, and stalwart on Border Control, Tom Homan, will be joining the Trump Administration,… pic.twitter.com/acZfsy2WoE

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/status/1855841037769470295

Peace

The mainstream media has been exposed for being the propaganda wing of the Democrat Party. Americans are waking up. pic.twitter.com/7tzK705MH1

— @amuse (@amuse) November 9, 2024

Breton

ICYMI: French Politician Thierry Breton Reveals EU Institutions Had “Absolutely No Right to Speak” About Stopping the War in Ukraine Before Trump’s Win

The former EU commissioner has just said the quiet part out loud – the bloc can’t even speak if that voice disagrees with US… pic.twitter.com/IMyPTtedue

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) November 11, 2024

Change

Trump: "These poor fools talk about global warming… It's going to global warm to a point where the oceans will rise 1/8 of an inch in 355 years… And in the meantime we're spending our wealth on this foolish stuff."

"The wind doesn't work. It's very expensive, kills the… pic.twitter.com/8prfV68CZg

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) November 11, 2024

Pelosi

Joe Biden is a primary target of much of the rage and contempt of Democrats for losing the election.

Just a few short months ago, Nancy Pelosi said he's not just one of the greatest presidents of all time, but belongs on Mt. Rushmore:pic.twitter.com/lYyw4ZFjG8

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 11, 2024

“People in the media are aware of how illegitimately they’ve done their jobs that they think they’re on the verge of being locked up” —Scott Adams

• Mysteries Revealed (Jim Kunstler)

You must admit, it’s a little spooky how quickly and rigorously Mr. Trump intends to deconstruct those parts of the government at war with the people: clean out “rogue bureaucrats,” firehose the malignant agencies, release and expose their document trails on spying, censorship, lawfare, and abuse-of-power. The consequence would be the return of consequence in our national life. It’s been absent for so long you can hardly imagine its power to get people’s minds right. There are already reports of frenzy among the culpable DOJ lawyers, and FBI Director Wray is set to resign before Mr. Trump can fire him. Attorney General Merrick Garland has gone radio-silent for his own good since Election Day. Expect many abiding mysteries to get unraveled, such as exactly how many federal agents did work the crowd around the Capitol on J-6, 2021 — which Mr. Wray has pretended to not be able to discuss “due to ongoing investigations.”

Expect to learn more about the pipe-bomb caper at the DNC HQ a few blocks away that same day. Prepare to be amazed at how deeply criminal these schemes were. You must wonder if the document-shredding party is already underway, despite calls to preserve all the emails, memos, and texts. Then there are the poisoned realms of the intel blob located at CIA, DHS, State, DOD, and elsewhere being subject to inquiry and overhaul. Think: John Brennan, James Clapper, Bill Barr, Michael Atkinson, Mayorkas, Judge Boasberg, Mary McCord, Col. Vindman, Senator Warner, Avril Haines, Victoria Nuland, Samantha Power, Gina Haspel, Marie Yovanovitch, Jen Easterly, all their deputies, and many more unknown to the public. Some of these names may yet seem obscure to you. They were all neck-deep in what looks a lot like sedition, treason, real conspiracies, not theories.

Even state officials such as New York AG Letitia James, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, and Fulton County, GA, DA Fani Willis, would be subject to federal charges under 18USC Section 242: willful deprivation of constitutional rights acting under color of law. That is exactly what the Trump lawfare cases amounted to. And then, of course, there are the long-running rumors of pedophilia and human trafficking networks among the elite, the Jeffrey Epstein list and the P. Diddy list. If these things exist, and they are released, history would shudder. Think: the Clinton Foundation. These people are looking ahead 70 days with visions of shoes dropping and hammers falling. If the mysteries are revealed, it’s hard to imagine that criminal proceedings would not be far behind. You can also imagine that the motivation across a broad and powerful elite class runs white-hot to stop Mr. Trump from entering the Oval Office.

So, these days ahead will be fraught with threats, schemes, plots, ploys, and deceptions. The paranoia must be out of this world among people who still have the resources and hold the levers-of-power needed to undertake nefarious deeds. There is chatter about “a coup” being considered among as-yet-unnamed parties in the Pentagon to prevent Mr. Trump from rising back into power. It’s unclear how that would work among our high command of transsexual generals and admirals and their hapless DEI adjutants. The strata of colonels benath them might have different ideas. But it could be the starting gun for actual civil war. We would find out what the Second Amendment is all about. “Joe Biden” likes to say that the citizenry can’t go up against his F-16 war-planes, but he evidently does not understand how much mischief can be made with small arms — rifles, grenades, rockets, drones — despite examples of it all over the world lately. That is hypothetical for now, of course.

In short, these are dangerous times. Mr. Trump would be advised to stay out of airplanes until inauguration day and to be extra-careful who he puts himself around, especially in public. You also must expect more lawfare of the most extreme sort going forward to January, every possible stone unturned to find procedural tricks to prevent certification of the election. Do you think Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Andrew Weissmann just laid back and watched football this weekend? They are probably quarterbacking efforts to finagle ballots for the remaining contested seats in Congress, in order to game-out Rep. Jamie Raskin’s well-publicized block-Trump play this coming Jan. 6.

“..he ultimately chose not to go after his Democratic rival, arguing that it would have “looked terrible” for the country.”

It’s not his style. But the likes of Comer and Jordan can still do it.

• Rep. Byron Donalds Says ‘Enemies-List’ Rumor Is A Lie (RT)

President-elect Donald Trump does not have any sort of blacklist of people that he is supposedly planning to punish after taking office, Florida Congressman Byron Donalds told Fox News on Sunday. Several US officials and media outlets have been speculating that Trump has, as one described it, a “vendetta against people that he believes have crossed him” and that he plans to go after his critics and perceived enemies. “There’s never been a set of threats like this made by a candidate for president of the United States,” Michael Bromwich, a former inspector general at the US Department of Justice told The Hill ahead of the November 5 vote, in which Trump beat his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. However, Congressman Donalds has dismissed these concerns, arguing that Trump has never said he would make it his mission to prosecute his detractors.

“For the American people who have been listening to these lies from the Democratic left, I will tell you: This is not something that Donald Trump has ever spoken to, or he’s committed to, whatsoever. There’s no ‘enemies list’,” Donalds told Fox News. The Republican added that Trump does not intend to focus his attention on going after his detractors and is instead committed to helping the American people and addressing the country’s top issues, such as securing the US-Mexico border, deporting illegal immigrants and improving the economy and energy. “His focus is the American people, not some ‘enemies list’,” Donalds insisted. Throughout his rallies, press interviews and social media posts, Trump has regularly spoken about a group of “enemies” within the US government that he has defined as “radical-left lunatics” that allegedly have been acting against America’s best interests.

During a podcast interview with Joe Rogan, Trump has also stated that these “enemies within” pose a bigger danger to the US than some of its foreign adversaries. However, Trump has dismissed concerns from the Democratic party that he would try to prosecute his political opponents and has pointed out that, after winning against Hillary Clinton in 2016, he ultimately chose not to go after his Democratic rival, arguing that it would have “looked terrible” for the country. Trump has claimed that the Biden-Harris administration, on the other hand, has weaponized the US Department of Justice, and has been using it to shut down its opponents, including the former president himself. Earlier this year, a Manhattan jury found the Republican candidate guilty on 34 felony counts related to alleged hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels and to his role in the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riots.

“Trump himself has said he believes that as many as 21 million are in the country illegally..”

• Trump Confirms He Has No Choice but to Carry Out Mass Deportations (ET)

President-elect Donald Trump said this week that his incoming administration has “no choice” but to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants, regardless of how much it may cost. Speaking with NBC News on Thursday, the president-elect was asked about how much it would cost to carry out his deportation plan, which he made reference to numerous times during his presidential campaign. “It’s not a question of a price tag,” Trump said, adding that “really, we have no choice.” “When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries. And now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here. There is no price tag.” His campaign had pledged to expel about 11 million people who are not authorized to be in the United States, although Trump himself has said he believes that as many as 21 million are in the country illegally.

“We obviously have to make the border strong and powerful, and we have to—at the same time, we want people to come into our country,” he said before signaling that the United States still needs legal immigrants. “And you know, I’m not somebody that says, ‘No, you can’t come in.’ We want people to come in.” Both Democrats and the nonprofit American Immigration Council have been critical of the mass deportation proposal, with the NGO estimating in a report that Trump’s plan may cost as much as $315 billion overall. In campaign events and media appearances, both Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have said that Americans would see longstanding economic benefits from the deportation plan. During his only debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Vance said that illegal immigrants are a reason why housing and rent prices have soared across the United States in recent years.

“Kicking out illegal immigrants who are competing for those homes” would help bring down housing costs, Vance said on Oct. 1. Some economists have disagreed with Vance’s assertions, saying that the increase in housing prices stems from a long period of underbuilding in the United States due to land-use regulations. But aside from the economic impact, Vance has argued that illegal immigration has devastated parts of the country, including places that are far from the U.S. border with Mexico. Illegal immigrants have overwhelmed schools, hospitals, and other systems across the United States, he’s said on several occasions, including during his debate with Walz, who was Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate.

“In communities all across this country, you’ve got schools that are overwhelmed, you’ve got hospitals that are overwhelmed, you have got housing that is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes,” Vance said in his lone debate. Trump has vowed to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 law signed by second President John Adams that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country the United States is at war with. He has spoken about deploying the National Guard, which can be activated on orders from a governor. Stephen Miller, a top Trump adviser, has said that troops under Republican governors would be sent to nearby states that refuse to participate. Amid questions about how such a deportation plan would play out, Vance has said that deporting millions would be done one step at a time, not all at once.

“The public is again being told to ignore the man behind the curtain. However, much of the public has already left.”

• Trump’s Election Produced a Moment of Unintended Honesty (Turley)

The philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said, “I’m not upset that you lied to me, I’m upset that from now on I can’t believe you.” Those words came to mind as leading scientific and media figures lost any semblance of restraint or neutrality in bemoaning the results of the presidential election. After regaining their composure, the public was told to ignore what they had just seen. It was not surprising that the sweeping Trump victory last week produced near hysteria among some Harris supporters from women pledging to break up with men to others cutting off their hair to those pledging to flee the country (including one curiously announcing that he was “leaving the United States” for Hawaii). It also may not be such a surprise that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul would label over half of the electorate as “anti-American” for voting for Trump or other Republican politicians or Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announcing that we are now officially moving into a dictatorship due to this democratic election.

It is the media elite that was most interesting to watch. Obviously, the response on MSNBC and CNN were expected as figures like contributor Claire McCaskill wept on air. However, other news organizations like CBS News have long maintained claims of neutrality even as their networks were criticized for openly pushing the Harris-Walz ticket. That included the alleged biased handling of the vice-presidential debate as CBS insisted that its hosts and journalists were completely neutral in the election. Yet, after the election, there was CBS News anchor John Dickerson getting choked up on national television in an interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. Dickerson chose to go on a show that has been openly anti-Trump for years. Nevertheless, many were surprised that, even days after the election, Dickerson was still overwhelmed by grief. Colbert asked: “How would you explain that to a 14-year-old today? How would you explain this election?” “I’ll try not to think about my boys because,” Dickerson started to respond before losing his composure.

It was one thing for these late-night hosts like Jimmy Kimmel to tear up over the results, but this is one of the top news figures on one of the three top networks. Thus far there is no backlash at CBS. That is in sharp contrast to the recent controversy involving CBS News host Tony Dokoupil who was immediately criticized by CBS for his criticism of an author for his anti-Israeli views as showing bias. Dokoupil reportedly was pushed into an “emotional meeting” with network staffers upset with his perceived bias in favor of Israel. So how does CBS feign neutrality when an anchor gets choked up at the thought of a Trump victory? The answer is easy: The public is told to ignore it and trust a journalist who cannot even discuss the election results without fighting back tears. That message was even more jarring at Scientific American. Once a popular, science-based publication, the magazine has been increasingly criticized for its political slant and pseudoscientific views. Much of the blame has focused on Laura Helmuth, the editor-in-chief.

After the election, Helmuth had a raving, profanity-laden meltdown on social media. She called Gen X voters f**king racists”. She dismissed “solidarity to everybody whose meanest, dumbest, most bigoted high-school classmates are celebrating early results because f**k them to the moon and back.” She even added a condemnation to her fellow Indianans as “racist and sexist” for voting for Trump. The postings dispensed with faux claims of neutrality, and many again raised long-standing concerns over the magazine’s direction. Helmuth responded by deleting the comments and just telling readers to effectively forget she said it. In fairness, Helmuth was trying to separate her personal views from those as the editor-in-chief. However, her “expression of shock and confusion about the election results” parallels what many have objected to the political turn of the magazine in recent years.

In 2020, Scientific American broke a 175-year tradition of non-partisanship to endorse Joe Biden in the presidential election. Conservatives have complained about the tenor and thrust of the magazine, which was once entirely apolitical. The point is that Helmuth’s rage is not confined to her social media account. The public is again being told to ignore the man behind the curtain. However, much of the public has already left.

“Trump’s performance was the best among young people (18-29 years old) in 20 years, the best among Black voters in 48 years, and the best among Hispanic voters in more than 50 years.”

• Why the Campaign Against Trump This Time is Different (Turley)

The single most common principle of recovery programs is that the first step is to admit that you have a problem. That first step continues to elude the politicians and pundits who unsuccessfully pushed lawfare and panic politics for years. That includes prosecutors like New York Attorney General Letitia James and politicians like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who affirmed this week that they will be redoubling, not reconsidering, their past positions. For its part, The Washington Post quickly posted an editorial titled “The second resistance to Trump must start now.” They may, however, find the resistance more challenging both politically and legally this time around. It is important to note at the outset that there is no reason Democratic activists should abandon their values just because they lost this election. Our system is strengthened by passionate and active advocacy.

Rather, it is the collective fury and delirium of the post-election protests that was so disconcerting. Pundits lashed out at the majority of voters, insisting that the election established that half of the nation is composed of racists, misogynists or domination addicts who long to submit to tyranny. Others blamed free speech and the fact that social media allows “disinformation” to be read by ignorant voters. In other words, the problem could not possibly be themselves. It was, rather, the public, which refused to listen. That does not bode well for the Democratic Party. As someone raised in a liberal politically active family in Chicago, I had hoped for greater introspection after this election blowout. Ordinarily, recovery can begin with “a terrible experience” when someone hits rock bottom.

After a crushing electoral defeat and the loss of the White House and likely both houses of Congress, one would think that Democrats would be ready for that first step to recovery. However, those hoping for a new leaf on the left do not understand the true addictive hold of rage. In my recent book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I explore rage and our long history of rage politics. There is a certain release that comes with rage in allowing people to do and say things that you would never do or say. People rarely admit it, but they like it. It is the ultimate high produced by the lowest form of political discourse. Over the course of the last eight years, the U.S. has become a nation of rage addicts. For months, Democratic leaders denounced Donald Trump and his supporters as fascists and neo-Nazis. President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and others suggested that democracy itself was about to die unless Democrats were kept in power.

Just before the election, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called those voting for Trump “anti-American.” By Hochul’s measure, over half of the American electorate is now “anti-American.” James is the face of lawfare. She may have done more to reelect Trump than anyone other than the president himself. She ran on nailing Trump on something, anything. In New York, she was joined by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg in this ill-conceived effort. They fulfilled the narrative of a weaponized legal system. Every new legal action seemed to produce another surge in polling for Trump. Yet there James was, soon after the election, with another press conference promising again to unleash the powers of her office to stop Trump’s policies. Then there was Pritzker, doing the community theater version of “The Avengers” and declaring, “You come for my people, you come through me.”

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) added that he too will “fight to the death” against Trump’s agenda. Rather than lower the rhetoric, these rage-addicts ran out for another hit. Our prior periods of rage politics were largely ended by the public in major election shifts like the one this month. Things, however, are different this time around both politically and legally. The problem for the resistance is the very democracy that they claimed to be saving. Democrats lost after opposing policies supported by an astonishing share of the public at a time of deep political division. That effort included opposing voter ID laws favored by 84 percent of the public, among other things. They are now committed to opposing policies central to this election blowout, including deportations of illegal immigrants, which is favored in some polls by two-thirds of Americans.

Likewise, Democrats have already doubled down on attacks on free speech, including blaming their loss on the absence of sufficient censorship. On MSNBC, host Mika Brzezinski blamed the loss in part on “massive disinformation.” Yet, according to some polls, free speech ranked as high as second among issues on Election Day. According to CNN, Trump’s performance was the best among young people (18-29 years old) in 20 years, the best among Black voters in 48 years, and the best among Hispanic voters in more than 50 years.

The party is trying to take over from their President.

• Senate Majority Leader Race Heats Up (ZH)

On Wednesday, the Senate is set to vote to elect its next leader, after the Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) – the party’s longest-serving Republican leader, is set to step aside. The three top candidates to replace him are neocon Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and John Thune (R-TX), and Trump ally Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) – who notably has the backing of MAGA and Elon Musk. On Sunday, Musk posted a poll on X asking followers to vote on who they would like to see lead the Senate. Scott won overwhelmingly. On Sunday, President-elect Trump urged whoever the next Senate leader is, they “must agree to Recess Appointments (in the Senate!), without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner.” “Sometimes the votes can take two years, or more. This is what they did four years ago, and we cannot let it happen again. We need positions filled IMMEDIATELY! Additionally, no Judges should be approved during this period of time because the Democrats are looking to ram through their Judges as the Republicans fight over Leadership. THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE. THANK YOU!”

Thune responded to this, telling Fox News: “I’ve spent eight months carefully listening to my colleagues about their vision for the next chapter of the Senate Republican Conference, especially as we hit the ground running with President Trump,” adding “One thing is clear: We must act quickly and decisively to get the president’s cabinet and other nominees in place as soon as possible to start delivering on the mandate we’ve been sent to execute, and all options are on the table to make that happen, including recess appointments.” That said, Thune and Cornyn have historically talked mad shit about Trump.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1855813889956446511

Video resurfaces of Senator John Cornyn saying Trump "can't win in 2024" because he doesn't appeal to people beyond his base.

Trump won the 2024 election in a landslide by appealing to people beyond his base.

Cornyn is currently fighting for the GOP Senate leader position but… pic.twitter.com/uWmyHFQ4di

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 11, 2024

Lisa Monaco? Are you nuts?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1856048665275838933

“There really is no choice. Cutting $2 trillion out of the budget is a good start, but it is not enough. These have to be real cuts, not fake cuts in the rate of growth.”

• The Economic Challenges Facing the Trump Administration (Jeffrey Tucker)

The first great challenge to the future Trump administration will be controlling inflation. It is coming back already and we might face a second wave that emerges in the summer. Throughout the presidential campaign, we’ve had almost no honest talk about the reasons for this devastation. It cannot be stopped through “anti-gouging” legislation. No one ever believed that this would achieve anything. The message had no public resonance at all. But just as crucially, the inflation was not kicked off by energy regulation and throttles on oil and gas production. Those restrictions increased transportation costs, yes, but the oil price now is not high and inflation is still a menace. vThe root of the problem is so unbearably obvious that it feels absurd to point it out. For two years, the money stock grew $6 trillion on the back of a wild spending bonanza by Congress, all of which was paid for by Federal Reserve purchases of new debt.

Because the new money was directly distributed to the population as if by helicopter, it watered down the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of goods and services. Growth stopped with rate increases, but the Fed has reversed itself again in an attempt to forestall recession. Right now, the money stock is growing again, thanks to a great deal of U.S. Treasury releases designed to prettify the GDP ahead of the election. There is no easy fix to this. Lowering energy prices with more supply can help, but there is a point at which lower prices actually reduce supply, simply because it no longer pays the bills to drill and refine. By all means, deregulate. But this much I can promise you: It will not fix the inflation problem. Nor should the Trump administration be overly concerned about the boogeyman called “deflation.” The people always benefit from rising purchasing power. Producers can cope just fine, as the computer and software industries have proven for the better part of 30 years.

Absolutely no policy choices should be made under the motive to stop deflation. That is in no way a threat right now. Ideally, the Trump administration would seek a fix to the problem of the Fed, such as permanently ending open-market operations and debt support. The effect of such changes long-term would be glorious, but it will not stop the problem that exists right now. Price controls are anathema under all circumstances. The best single strategy to deal with the immediate problem is to inspire investment via dramatic tax cuts (capital and income) plus huge and far-reaching deregulation of everything, to lower the costs of start-ups and the operation of small businesses. That is essential. Keep in mind that the usual suspects will scream that higher growth only makes inflation worse. This is wrong. There’s no other way to put it. It’s just bad analytics stemming from outdated models.

Higher growth does not feed inflation. It mitigates it, burying its impact amid more opportunities and greater wealth creation. Think of it as a race. Growth needs to rise well above inflation rates. The tax cuts will also put more money in the hands of producers and consumers, granting more control over wealth to the public so that the ghostly tax increases of inflation will have less of an impact. That will reduce government revenue and increase the debt, which is inflationary, too, so that is a major problem. Again, there is an answer in the form of far-reaching spending cuts. There really is no choice. Cutting $2 trillion out of the budget is a good start, but it is not enough. These have to be real cuts, not fake cuts in the rate of growth.

Some revenue shortfalls can be covered by tariffs, but there are potential pitfalls here. There are three reasons for tariffs: revenue, the protection of industry, and the rebalancing of settlement systems. They work at cross purposes. The revenue comes from paying the tariffs. They are only paid when trade occurs. Protection happens when trade does not take place on the scale it otherwise would have. The more protection, the less revenue. The more revenue, the less protection. Do you see the problem? Relying on tariffs to make up revenue losses from tax cuts absolutely requires the continued existence of imports, especially on high-dollar capital goods. Seeking ever more revenue from this source perpetuates the problem of international industrial competition. As for rebalancing trade, that likely cannot happen so long as the dollar (and petrodollar) are the final means of payment.

Peter Schiff and Ed Dowd have dire predictions. Martin Armstrong says just eliminate income tax. You’ll have a boom.

• Peter Schiff: What’s Next for Trump? (SchiffGold)

In the latest episode of the Peter Schiff Show, Peter dissects Donald Trump’s dominant election victory and spends most of the show evaluating America’s economic prospects under his second term. He also hits on Bitcoin’s recent price surge and announces a new lawsuit launched against the IRS and other parties responsible for the closing of Peter’s bank in Puerto Rico. Peter starts the episode by pointing out the obvious reason Trump won. Despite what the media and political class insists, it’s not bigotry or hatred: “I want to remind my audience why he won and why I was so confident for so long that he was going to win. He won because the economy is lousy. That’s why he won the first time in 2016. That’s why I predicted he was going to win in 2016, because back in 2015, the media was selling the same BS—mainstream media, Wall Street—that we had a great economy. … Donald Trump was basically saying the same thing that I was. It was almost like he was watching my podcast and then going out and stomping on the campaign trail, talking about how the economy was actually bad, how the numbers were a fraud.”

The state of the economy explains why Trump was able to assemble a coalition unlike any other in recent Republican history: “He got 20% of the African American vote. I mean, it dwarfs what he got the first time—I think he got 88% white support and maybe 12% African American. Twenty percent! That’s the biggest percentage of the African American vote that Republicans have had in, I don’t know, 20 years… The guy’s supposed to be a racist, and he’s getting more African American support than other Republicans who supposedly were racist. Why did he get all these African American votes? Because they’re suffering in this economy.” Much of the Trump campaign’s rhetoric on deregulation is solid. Peter, however, urges caution on deregulating the financial sector. Unless banking subsidies and bailouts are taken off the table, further deregulation will just reward banks for bad fiscal behavior:

“In banking, it’s almost not really two wrongs make a right, but two wrongs make a lesser wrong. So once you make the mistake of providing all these subsidies and government guarantees to banks, then the government needs to step up and regulate them because you’ve now eliminated the free market regulation. So now what they’re going to do is deregulate the banks so they can take even bigger risks with taxpayer money.” The GOP has a strong mandate to reform the federal government, and they should. But it’s unlikely they’ll actually make meaningful change: “Politicians have been promising for years to cut waste, fraud, and abuse. They never do it. Yes, when Elon Musk bought Twitter, he made major cuts. He had the kitchen sink, and he got rid of a lot of dead wood. That’s because he owned the company. He could do what he wants. He’s not going to be able to do that with the government. The real spending cuts are going to have to get approved by Congress.”

Any more Trump tax cuts will put pressure on already rising long-term rates and likely induce the Fed to return to QE: “The Fed is going to have to go back to QE, which is what I’ve been saying they’re going to do. The only way to stop long-term interest rates from soaring and crushing the economy, the stock market, the banks, and everything Trump is promising to pump up, is if the Fed goes back to quantitative easing to monetize the massive budget deficits that the tax cuts produce—at least in the short run.” The worst case for Trump’s second term is a major financial crisis. If the economy blows up in the next four years, Trump will be blamed, and the left will benefit:

“If everything collapses right away, you know, see what Trump did, and they’re going to tie Trump to capitalism, free markets, deregulation, less government. So they’re going to really hang this collapse on free-market capitalism and Trump. And if you thought Kamala was left-wing, wait till you see who we elect in four years, you know, because of this collapse.” One way to ameliorate America’s economic problems would be to slowly return to the gold standard.

“The incoming Trump Administrating has to get out in front of the narrative. This was already baked into the cake..”

• Trump Inherits Turd of an Economy – Ed Dowd (USAW)

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst who said in May the economy was skidding. Now, Dowd predicts the economy is poised to “roll over” and soon. Why is the Fed cutting rates with a record high DOW? Maybe they see the same thing he does. Dowd explains, “Real weekly wage growth was minus 2% going into the election. It is also interesting to know that minus 2% number of wage growth was also in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide and also in 1992 when Bill Clinton won in a landslide. . . . I have never seen such blatant manipulation of government statistics. There is government spending and government hiring to paper over what is truly a bad economy for the average man. When I was asked prior to the election who do you think will win the election, I said Trump has already won, according to the economic statistics. That’s why he won.

Bobby Kennedy helped along with Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, lots of people switching and what have you. What really got Trump in was the economy, the real economy, not the stock market. It was not the ‘everything is hunky-dory’ pablum from the mainstream media. The real economy has been rolling over, and we are just waiting for the financial markets to figure this out. When they do, Trump is going to inherit a turd of a financial market crisis. Government statistics will be updated, and it will show we started a recession sometime this year. . . . The incoming Trump Administrating has to get out in front of the narrative. This was already baked into the cake. They just got handed fraudulent books. So, they are basically going to get blamed for what is coming. They have to get in front of the narrative and talk about what they were handed. They need to talk about how the stock market is not a real indicator of economic health like it was before the days of raw manipulation.”

The other big problem that Trump needs to get in front of is the CV19 bioweapon vax disaster. Dowd says, “We have been monitoring and tracking excess deaths, disabilities and injuries such as heart attacks, neurological problems, cancers and liver issues. There is a whole host of issues that have gone off the charts since the introduction of the Covid vaccines. As of 2023, there was about 1.2 million excess deaths in the US. There were about four million disabilities and about 32 million injured. . . . Our calculations, conservatively speaking, are 8 million to 15 million dead globally, 40 million to 60 million disabled and 500 million to 900 million injured where their immune system is so compromised that they are getting sick all the time. You’ve got to think about it as a funnel.

Most of the numbers are injured, and then the next level down are disabled and then dead. People can funnel down from one category to the next. We have a problem here because we have 10% to 13% excess mortality currently running. . . . We are running once in 200 year flood numbers in 2024. . . . This is not over. It is going to stay with us for decades. The way to mitigate that is there needs to be national awareness so people can treat the problems they have. This is the biggest healthcare failure we have ever seen. We need to pull the mRNA vaccines and have a global truth moment. . . .We continue to go along with a wink and a nod to pretend there is not a problem. We are not going to talk about Covid and the mRNA vaccines, and in my mind, this is unethical, immoral and criminal.” Dowd also talks about the US dollar that is not going away anytime soon, gold that is topping out –for now and how we need to deal with massive amounts of debt.

“You eliminate the income tax, and you are going to have the biggest economic boom in absolute history. You will create so many jobs. You won’t have to worry about the debt..”

• Trump Eliminates Federal Income Tax, Economy Booms – Martin Armstrong (USAW)

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with some important predictions in his last appearance before the 2024 Election. First, Armstrong’s Socrates computer is still predicting a Trump landslide. Socrates actually factors in cheating to make this “Trump Wins” call. Armstrong says, “In the 2020 Election, it came out the computer said it was 50/50. It did not show a huge landslide one way or another. They rigged it, but it was in Congress is where they did it. . . . There were seven states that were going to be challenged. . . . On January 6 (during the so-called insurrection at the capitol), the FBI has testified they could not even tell how many people they had there. . . . as soon as this happens, Pelosi calls emergency rules. When she did the emergency rules, she shut down any challenge to the seven states. . . . That’s how the 2020 Election was really rigged. . . . in 2024, the gap is too big this time. In 2020, the computer said it was tight. This one, I don’t think they can cheat that much to actually overthrow it.”

If Trump does win, one of the huge changes going to be pushed is the elimination of federal income taxes. Let that sink in. When you hear Donald Trump say he is contemplating doing away with federal taxes, it is not some campaign promise that he intends to break. Armstrong says this is more than doable. When Trump says he can fix the economy, Armstrong contends eliminating federal income tax is a turbocharger for the American economy. Armstrong explains, “If you eliminate the income tax, what will happen is all these other companies that are in different countries are going to want to come here. It’s going to be the biggest economic boom in absolute history.”

Is this why Trump keeps saying he can “fix the economy”? Armstrong says, “Oh yes. The U.S. will make more money than you can ever imagine. When I testified in front of Congress, I said at least lower the tax rate to 15% on corporates. . . . 15% is what Hong Kong was charging, and that was the only reason people were there. . . . We do not need the income tax anymore because we create money anyway. We don’t need to get some money back like gold coins from the public so we can pay our bills. This is an old theory. So, income tax is something we do not need, and we certainly do not need to borrow anymore. Our national debt is exploding because of interest expenditures. . . . You eliminate the income tax, and you are going to have the biggest economic boom in absolute history. You will create so many jobs. You won’t have to worry about the debt. . . . We would get rid of the debt, and the equity would be private companies. If you wanted to create your own studio, there would be capital available to do that.”

Armstrong also talks about gold, who is really running the country and extreme civil unrest coming to America after the 2024 Election.

“A man shows himself in extraordinary conditions – this is where a man shows himself. And he showed himself, in my opinion, in the right way: he showed his courage, as a man…”

• The Fog of War Talk – Favour, Threat (Helmer)

Vladimir Putin, September 5, 2024: “As for my preferences, it is not up to us to decide. After all, the American people will have to make their own choice. As I have already said, we favoured Mr Biden, the current President, but they took him out of the race. That said, he advised his supporters to support Ms Harris. So, we will act accordingly and lend her our support.”

Donald Trump, September 7: “I have a feeling. I don’t know. I don’t know what to say exactly about that. I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favour.”

Kremlin, November 6: “ ‘It is still almost impossible to worsen relations – they are at the lowest point in history,’ [Spokesman Dmitry] Peskov said. When asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin would formally congratulate Trump on his victory, Peskov said he wasn’t aware of any plans for that from the Kremlin, adding, ‘Let’s not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state…now, after the victory… when entering the Oval Office, sometimes statements take on a different tone. That’s why we say that we carefully analyze everything, observe everything, and draw conclusions based on specific words and concrete steps.’ ”

Kremlin, November 7: “Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Thursday that he had ‘no knowledge’ of any congratulatory message from Putin to Trump. ‘He [Trump] said he would call Putin before the inauguration. Here are his words, we have nothing else to say yet,’ Peskov explained to reporters.’ ” “ ‘It is not out of the question,’ the spokesman told reporters when asked about the matter. ‘He did say he would call Putin before the inauguration. These are his words; we have nothing else to add for now,’ he added.”

Washington, November 10: “U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday [November 7] and discussed the war in Ukraine, the Washington Post reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump advised Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of ‘Washington’s sizeable military presence in Europe’, the Post reported.”

Sochi, Putin at the Valdai Club, November 7: “Q: What is the next President like from this point of view? A [Putin] …his behaviour when he faced an assassination attempt really impressed me. He turned out to be a courageous man. And it was not just the raised hand and the call to fight for their shared ideals. It was not just that, although, of course, this was more of a reflex. A man shows himself in extraordinary conditions – this is where a man shows himself. And he showed himself, in my opinion, in the right way: he showed his courage, as a man…what has been said in terms of trying to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion at least deserves attention. Availing myself of this opportunity, I would like to congratulate him on his election as President of the United States of America.

I have already said that we will work with any head of state who has the trust of the American people. We will live up to this pledge…You know, I do not think it would be shameful for me to call him. I do not do this because there was a time when the leaders of Western countries have been calling me almost every week, and then suddenly they stopped. If they do not want to do it, so be it. As you can see, we are alive and well, and are developing, moving ahead. If someone of them wants to resume contacts, I have always said and I want to say again: we have nothing against it. We are ready to resume our contacts and have discussions. But there are many people willing to have discussions, there is a whole audience here, but if not, we will have a discussion with you then. Q: Does this mean that you are ready to have discussions with Trump? A. We are ready, of course.”

“Moscow views long-range strikes with US-supplied weapons as a ‘red line’ which would likely make ceasefire negotiations impossible. The Trump team knows this..”

• Biden To Lobby Trump To Not Cut Support For Ukraine (ZH)

The Biden White House has made clear that it will prioritize attempting convince the incoming Trump administration to keep up massive defense assistance to Ukraine, amid fears the US could essentially abandon the Zelensky government while pursuing peace with Moscow. “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe,” Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CBS News on Sunday. President-elect Trump has not stated that he plans to cut all aid, but he did recently mock President Zelensky as the “world’s greatest salesman” for securing hundreds of millions of dollars in new taxpayer funds recently. Incoming VP J.D. Vance has been even more critical of the Ukrainian government. He has on several occasions expressed deep frustration at even fellow Republicans’ willingness to sign over billions to Ukraine with ease.

But Sullivan has vowed that in the interim, the White House plans to get Ukraine the aid passed by Congress “on time and in full.” “Our approach remains the same as it’s been for the last two and a half years, which is to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield so that it is ultimately in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table,” he continued in the “Face the Nation” interview. Interestingly he at one point in the Sunday discussion referenced tensions in southeast Asia involving China, and allies like Japan and Taiwan, claiming that weakened US support to Kiev could signal China that the US is in retreat. “President Biden will make the case that we do need ongoing resources for Ukraine beyond the end of his term, because the threat to Ukraine will remain no matter what exactly happens on the battlefield or at the negotiating table,” Sullivan said.

He again emphasized in his concluding remarks on the program that President Biden “will have sent the full amount of resources and aid to Ukraine the Congress has authorized” by January 20. But Zelensky’s biggest ‘ask’ which is still on the table is permission from the US to use long-range missiles to target deep into Russian territory. He had hoped to get this greenlight from the Biden administration, but the US has clearly rejected it for now. Zelensky is unlikely to get a yes from the future Trump administration as well, given that Trump has prioritized rapidly ending the war and achieving lasting ceasefire. Moscow views long-range strikes with US-supplied weapons as a ‘red line’ which would likely make ceasefire negotiations impossible. The Trump team knows this and is thus unlikely to consider it as a real option.

“In reality, the fate of this country and its puppet leaders will continue to be decided in high offices in Washington..”

• US Could Replace Zelensky – Russian Intel Agency (RT)

The US is considering holding an election in Ukraine next year as a “legitimate” means of replacing the government of Vladimir Zelensky, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on Monday. Zelensky remains in power in Ukraine despite his term in office having officially expired this May. The politician had earlier opted to scrap presidential elections, citing the martial law that had been imposed in the country due to the conflict with Russia. The US State Department believes Zelensky to be “overly entitled” and may organize presidential and parliamentary votes to remove him in 2025 despite the ongoing fighting, the SVR said in a statement. According to the spy agency’s information, Washington has decided to begin preliminary work aimed at creating conditions for launching an election campaign in Ukraine.

The first stage of the plan will see US-funded NGOs using the structures of Ukrainian civil society under their control to put forward the initiative of holding an election. After it gets “broad public support,” the election candidates would be selected in coordination with the State Department, the SVR said. The observers for the votes will also be appointed by Washington-linked NGOs, it added. The US has already initiated discussions on the creation of a new pro-American party in the country among Ukrainian activists on its payroll, the statement read. The State Department expects this party to make it into the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, and help the US to keep any future Ukrainian president in check, it added.

The SVR suggested that these activities prove the phrase “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” that American officials have repeated throughout the conflict is just an empty slogan. “In reality, the fate of this country and its puppet leaders will continue to be decided in high offices in Washington,” it said. Last week, Zelensky extended the period of martial law and mobilization in Ukraine until February 2025, amending the relevant legislation for the 13th time since the escalation of the conflict with Russia in February 2022. US President-elect Donald Trump Trump promised many times during his reelection campaign to put a swift end to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. A source close to Zelensky’s office told Strana.ua last week that the Ukrainian leader would be powerless to resist if Trump decides he wants him to stop fighting and pursue peace with Russia.

“..to “thwart Donald Trump’s efforts to scale back US support for Ukraine.”

• UK and France To Push Biden To Escalate Ukraine Conflict – Telegraph (RT)

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will again ask US President Joe Biden to allow Kiev strike targets deep inside Russia with Western weapons, The Telegraph reported on Sunday. The UK and France have donated a number of Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles to Ukraine. The US, which provides some components for the European long-range weapons, has a say on how they are used. Biden has repeatedly rejected calls by Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky to allow strikes deep inside Russia, which Moscow said would seriously escalate the conflict. According to Telegraph sources, the leaders of the UK and France will make a “last ditch attempt” to secure a policy change by the outgoing US president to “thwart Donald Trump’s efforts to scale back US support for Ukraine.”

The Republican politician will take office on January 20, after winning last week’s US presidential election. ”We are very keen to make sure we can make the most of the time between now and January 20 and not just put everything on hold until the next administration,” a senior Whitehall source told the British newspaper. Trump claimed on the campaign trail that he could end the Ukraine conflict “in 24 hours” if elected for a second term. He reportedly intends to play hardball with both sides, forcing Kiev and Moscow to compromise. Kiev claims that it could turn the tide on the battlefield by striking targets deep inside Russia with Western long-range weapons. At the weekend, it launched dozens of kamikaze drones at Moscow for the first time in months, but failed to cause any meaningful damage, according to Russian officials.

Western missiles are more powerful than Ukrainian drones and can produce better results, Zelensky has previously argued, explaining why he is seeking permission from donors for such strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that his government would treat any attacks along the lines envisioned by Kiev and its backers as coming from the state that provides the arms. Moscow will react to any such an escalation accordingly, he said.

“..the West launched war in Ukraine to prove its point – that no single country could hope to stand against the combined weight of all NATO. They said that because they believed it.”

• The West’s Very Fundamental Accumulating Contradictions (Alastair Crooke)

The election has occurred; Trump will take office in January; many of the existing Party Nomenklatura will be replaced; different policies will be announced – but actually taking power (rather than just sitting in the White House) will be more complex. The U.S. has devolved into many disparate fiefdoms – almost princedoms – from the CIA to the Justice Department. And regulatory ‘agencies’ too, have been implanted to preserve Nomenklatura hold on the System’s lifeblood. Pulling these ideological adversaries into new thinking will not proceed entirely smoothly. However, the U.S. election also, has been a referendum on the prevalent western intellectual mainstream. And that likely will be more decisive than the U.S. domestic vote – important though that is. The U.S. has shifted strategically away from the managerial techno-oligarchy that took its grip in the 1970s. Today’s shift is reflected across the U.S.

Back in 1970, Zbig Brzezinski (who was to become National Security Adviser to President Carter) wrote a book foreseeing the new era: What he then called ‘The Technetronic Era’, “involved the gradual appearance of a more controlled society. Such a society … dominated by an élite, unrestrained by traditional values … [and practicing] continuous surveillance over every citizen … [together with] manipulation of the behaviour and intellectual functioning of all people … [would become the new norm].” Elsewhere, Brzezinski argued that “the nation-state … has ceased to be the principal creative force: International banks and multinational corporations are acting and planning in terms that are far in advance of the political concepts of the nation-state”. Brzezinski was plain wrong about the benefits of tech cosmopolitan governance.

And he was decisively, and disastrously, wrong in the policy prescriptions that he adduced from the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991 – that no country or group of countries would ever dare to stand up to U.S. power. Brzezinski argued in The Grand Chessboard that Russia would have no choice but to submit to the expansion of NATO, and to the geopolitical dictates of the U.S. But Russia did not succumb. And as a result of the élites’ 1991 ‘End of History’ euphoria, the West launched war in Ukraine to prove its point – that no single country could hope to stand against the combined weight of all NATO. They said that because they believed it. They believed in the western Manifest Destiny. They did not understand the other options Russia had. Today, the Ukraine war is lost. Hundreds of thousands have died unnecessarily – for a conceit. The ‘other war’ in the Middle East fares no differently. The Israeli-U.S. war on Iran will be lost, and tens of thousands of Palestinians and Lebanese will have died pointlessly.

And the ‘forever wars’ too, that were expected by the Supreme Commander of NATO in the wake of 9/11 to topple an array of states (first Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran), not only did they not result in consolidating U.S. hegemony, but they have led instead to Kazan and to BRICS, with its long tail of aspirant members, ready to face down foreign colonialism. The Kazan summit was cautious. It didn’t project a flush of solutions; some BRICS states were hesitant (the U.S. election was scheduled for the following week). Putin’s comments to these latter states were carefully calibrated: Look at what the U.S. can do to you, should you fall foul of it, at any point. Protect yourselves. All that the BRICS President (Putin) could say, at this juncture, was: Here are the problems that [we have to solve]. It is premature to set up a full alternative Bretton Woods structure at this time.

But we can set up the core to a prudent alternative for working in the dollar sphere: a settlement and clearing system, BRICS Clear; a reference unit of account; a re-insurance structure and the BRICS Card – a retail payment card system similar to AliPay. Perhaps a Reserve Currency and the full Bretton Woods paraphernalia will prove unnecessary. Financial technology is evolving fast – and providing that the BRICS clearance system is functional, a multitude of fin-tech separate trade channels may ultimately be what results. But a ‘week is a long time in politics’. And one week later, the western intellectual paradigm was upended. The Shibboleths of the last fifty years were rejected across the board in the U.S. by voters. The ideology of ‘undoing’ the cultural past; the casting aside the lessons of history (for, it is claimed, ‘wrongful’ perspectives) and the rejection of systems of ethics reflected in the myths and stories of a community, have themselves been rejected!

“The courts have never banned such a popular party, setting the stage for a potential national crisis should the motion go through.”

• Germany: Move To Ban AfD May Come Before New Elections (RMX)

With the German government collapsing, one of the main proponents of an Alternative for Germany (AfD) ban, CDU politician Marco Wanderwitz, is pushing for a speedy procedure right before new elections. “Our aim is still to submit the motion and vote on it in this legislative period and thus get the proceedings at the Federal Constitutional Court underway,” he told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. He said that things now have to “move quickly.” As Remix News has long reported, MP Wanderwitz, who was defeated by an AfD politician in local elections but gained re-entry into the Bundestag due to being on the CDU party list, has been pushing for a ban for a year. In order to submit a motion to ban the AfD, he needs 37 fellow MPs, or 5 percent of the Bundestag MPs, to vote with him.

Wanderwitz is attempting to capitalize on the arrest of three individuals from the Saxon Separatists group who had links to the AfD, with Wanderwitz claiming that the group has connections to right-wing terrorism. The AfD has indicated that it has no ties to the Saxon Separatists and disavows the group. Notably, many on the left have open connections to left-wing extremist groups, and even the country’s current interior minister, Nancy Faeser, wrote for Antifa Magazine shortly before she won her position, a group known to be funded by a government-designated left-wing extremist group. Politicians in Germany have been split on the issue. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is allegedly no longer fundamentally opposed to a ban, but claims he wants to observe new developments. The FDP, which was once against the move, is now moving closer to a ban.

Notably, both parties stand to gain voters from the rival AfD should a ban move forward. The Greens, meanwhile, want a gradual process towards a ban, including consulting with legal experts. Wanderwitz himself sees a short window for a ban to come about, at least while he is leading the charge. He is set to retire from politics, which means by the time the next government is voted in, he will no longer be a part of it. No matter what happens, a ban on the AfD could take years. Any final ban would have to be approved by the Federal Constitutional Court, and the burden for such a ban is supposed to be very high. Notably, the AfD party routinely polls between 16 and 20 percent of the national vote, and is the second most popular party in the nation. The courts have never banned such a popular party, setting the stage for a potential national crisis should the motion go through.

“..from time to time, that German system of national frustration recycling breaks down at the top. Such a collapse has just occurred.”

• How Blind Support For Ukraine Broke Germany (Amar)

Germans love stability. Their whole political system is designed to prevent change or, at least, to slow it down to a glacial pace. Germans also love to complain. That’s why they can’t stop grousing about the obvious stagnation (another word for “stability”) of their country. They also love compromises that to many others would seem foul and ineffective but appear reasonable and, again, stable to them. That’s why they are stuck between wanting nothing to change and everything to finally get better. Yet, from time to time, that German system of national frustration recycling breaks down at the top. Such a collapse has just occurred. On Wednesday, November 6, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner. He thereby also ended the so-called “traffic light” coalition that has ruled Germany – for bad and for worse – for almost three years.

Named after the colors of the participating parties, the coalition consisted of Scholz’s own “red” SPD party (the Social-Democrats, who are so centrist they might as well be conservatives), the Greens (right-wing NATO-fetishists and fanatic Russophobes who also like to ruin the economy), and the “yellow” FDP (center-right “free-market” liberals whose worst nightmare is taxation). Since former finance minister Linder is also the head of the FDP, booting him out in what the New York Times has rightly described as a “spectacular breakup” led to all other FDP ministers – except one who rather abandoned his party than his cabinet position – also exiting the government. This leaves the latter in existence but dead in the water, commanding only a minority in the federal parliament, and incapable of actually governing.

Now the question is what comes next. Or to be precise, when: Since the parliamentary opposition, mainly the centrist conservatives from the CDU, is not politically suicidal and therefore will certainly not provide majorities for Scholz and his rump government, early elections are inevitable. If the coalition had lasted its full term, they would have taken place at the end of September next year. Now they will happen some time in its first quarter. When exactly is currently a matter of contention. In constitutional terms, how to get to these emergency elections is clear: Scholz will have to call a confidence vote in parliament to predictably lose it. This will allow the German president – mostly a representative figure – to disband the parliament and initiate the elections. (A hypothetically possible variant of this maneuver that would lead directly to the establishment of a new, CDU-conservative-led government has been ruled out, for now, by their leader Friedrich Merz.)

Politically, things are not so simple. Without going into excessive detail, the key fact here is that the constitution sets certain deadlines, but individual players still have room for maneuver. This means that Scholz is interested in delaying the elections until late March, which made him announce his confidence vote for as late as January 15. That was a transparently selfish and desperate attempt to skew a losing game in his favor. Unsurprisingly, his rivals insist on moving much faster. The conservatives from the CDU, trying to profit from their own favorable polling numbers and the ruling coalition’s breakdown and unpopularity, plausibly argue that Scholz is “eine lame duck” (in Germano-English in the original, by the way; the German elite just is that way) and that the country is in crisis and cannot afford an excessive interregnum. Scholz’s former partners, now enemies, in the FDP also call on him to get a move on and “make room.”

This particular game for advantage-by-timing will play out one way or another. But since it won’t make a great difference, it is not very interesting. There are more important issues to discuss. Regarding the causes of the coalition collapse, there are many, of course, including that it was always a rickety contraption bringing together ideologically unsuited partners, represented by often dissembling and backstabbing personalities with immense egos. The premeditated and below-the-belt manner in which Scholz went after his former finance minister after kicking him out was, as the conservative Welt newspaper rightly noted, indecently demagogic. But it was also simply representative of the true, for want of better words, moral climate in that anti-team.

The bitter, cheap mud-slinging from the very top also signaled – once there was nothing to lose and all pretense was dropped – just how much mutual hostility the coalition members used to hide from the public. In that sense, the true, toxic atmosphere among them resembled the senility of outgoing US President Joe Biden – not really a secret for anyone with eyes to see, while still veiled in much opportunistic lying, and, finally, coming out with an unseemly embarrassment made worse by all that preceding hypocrisy. But two issues stick out among the reasons for the end of the coalition: The economy, obviously, and, not so obviously perhaps but all the more intriguingly, Ukraine. The immediate trigger for the showdown among the non-partners were fundamental disagreements over how to address Germany’s deep economic crisis that has made the country the worst performer in the G7.

In addition, the impending second presidency of Donald Trump will make things even harder not only for German politicians but for German business as well: Trump’s long-announced tariff increases are certain to hit Germany, too. Currently, German companies are profiting from a record trade surplus with the US, but that is also painting a giant target on them for Trump. They will face even greater pressures to leave Germany behind as too expensive and shift production elsewhere, including, of course, to the US. The money question was made urgent for the coalition more than a year ago, when Germany’s Constitutional Court invalidated a large chunk of its 2024 budget as, to put it bluntly, fraudulent. Which it was. Since then, the coalition partners have had no money to paper over their differences and this fact, in turn, made it impossible to put a budget together for next year and helped produce the breakdown.

Portrait
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855654187528274183

Perspective
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855875676911337797

Crab guards
https://twitter.com/i/status/1855686117372428659

Japan trains

Why do Japanese trains have such a long nose?

[📹 jasperstorm]pic.twitter.com/CdVQDoWSE6

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 11, 2024

Camel

This man helped trapped baby camel get back safely to its mom. pic.twitter.com/uOd90l1Waf

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) November 11, 2024

jump
https://twitter.com/i/status/1856128414903628140

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Debt Rattle January 24 2024

Jan 242024

January 24, 2024 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:45 am Finance Tagged with: AfD, Egypt, J6, Kafka, mobilization, NATO, Nikki Haley, SCOTUS, Texas, Trump 43 Responses »

Nicolas de Staël Paris la nuit 1954

• Trump ‘Honored’ By New Hampshire Win, Says Republican Party ‘Very United’ (Fox)

• Israel Risks Dragging Egypt Into War (Blade)

• Russia Will Do Everything to Integrate Egypt Into BRICS – Putin (Sp.)

• UN Agency Says 570,000 People in Gaza Strip Face Dire Hunger (Sp.)

• No Direct Threat From Russia – NATO (RT)

• Germans Told To Prepare For Another War With Russia (RT)

• Germany Can’t Afford Rearmament, Let Alone a ‘War’ With Russia (Sp.)

• Davos Admits Possibility Of Ukraine Defeat (ZH)

• Ukraine Spy Chief: Win “Not Even Conceivable” Without Mass Mobilization (ZH)

• The German Establishment Wants To Ban AfD (Amar)

• Pelosi’s J6 Committee Deleted Over 100 Encrypted Files (PB)

• No One Is Safe in an Era of Kafkaesque Absurdity (Brooks)

• Mayorkas Says Border Is Secure But Biden Says It Isn’t (MN)

• Supreme Court Rules Texas Must Replace Barbed Wire With Giant Red Carpet (BBee)

• Supreme Court Rules It’s Illegal For National Guard To Guard Nation (BBee)

New Hampshire Governor Sununu’s home town.

Vivek

VIVEK: “We are in the middle of a war in this country. It’s not between black or white, or even between most democrats and republicans. It is between those of us who love this country and a fringe minority who hates the United States of America.” pic.twitter.com/Uhd51rEzrU

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 23, 2024

Tucker Canada
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749645597827887333

Tucker Rand Paul

Rand Paul is one of the few Republicans in the Senate who understands the threat of Nikki Haley. He may be the only one who cares where COVID came from. “Anthony Fauci should be in jail,” he says. pic.twitter.com/LoxtDSEI6d

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) January 23, 2024

Fani
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749817785122013580

Kash Patel
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749514005725475192

Trump Jan 22

This is an incredibly powerful speech from Trump last night.

Every American needs to watch this and retweet it so that all can see and understand the stakes of the 2024 election.

We must win this for the sake of our nation. Every word he speaks here is the God's honest truth. pic.twitter.com/BaAP7HAfdv

— Joey Mannarino (@JoeyMannarinoUS) January 23, 2024

Kari Lake

BREAKING: Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.

Holy s***!

"There are very powerful people who want to keep you out," he said.

At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name… pic.twitter.com/9r1DoDzITD

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 23, 2024

Trump hotel jobs
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749671123778748611

Time for dirty tricks?!

• Trump ‘Honored’ By New Hampshire Win, Says Republican Party ‘Very United’ (Fox)

Former President Trump said he is “very honored” by his New Hampshire primary win Tuesday night, telling Fox News Digital that the Republican Party is “very united” behind his candidacy. Trump won the first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday night, defeating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Trump also won the Iowa caucuses last week. During an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital shortly after the race was called, Trump said he was honored. “I’m very honored by the result,” Trump said. Trump also said he is “looking forward to going against the worst president in the history of our country.” New Hampshire – where independent voters who make up roughly 40% of the electorate can vote in either major party’s contest and have long played an influential role in the state’s storied presidential primary – was considered fertile ground for Haley.

And Haley spent plenty of time and resources in the state, securing the influential endorsement of popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. But Trump dominated for a second week in a row, cruising to victory in both critical early voting states. When asked if he felt Haley would suspend her campaign, he said, “I don’t know. She should.” “She should because, otherwise, we have to keep wasting money instead of spending on Biden,” Trump said. “If she doesn’t drop out, we have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus.” Trump, who was joined at a rally Monday night in New Hampshire by his former opponents who then endorsed him, including Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, said the party is united.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign on Sunday and endorsed Trump. “The party is very united except for her,” Trump said. “The party is very united, and we’re looking forward to going against the worst president in the history of our country,” he said. But Haley, during a speech after the race was called, noted that she got close to half of the vote in New Hampshire. She said she is “the last one standing next to Donald Trump” and added that the race is “far from over.” “New Hampshire is the first in the nation, not the last,” Haley said. She is now looking ahead to South Carolina’s primary on Feb. 24.

“..Netanyahu understands the importance of these strategic relations with Cairo and he will not damage those ties..”

• Israel Risks Dragging Egypt Into War (Blade)

It’s been more than a hundred days since Israel kicked off its Iron Swords operation in Gaza following the bloody attack of October 7, when more than 1,200 Israelis were brutally murdered at the hands of Hamas militants. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to punish those responsible for the massacre, which also left more than 5,000 people wounded. He further promised to eliminate the Islamic group that controls Gaza, and to de-militarize the enclave that has posed a threat to Israel’s security. But more than three months down the line, officials in West Jerusalem still seem to be scratching their heads over how to achieve those goals. The main challenge is the continuous flow of arms, technology, and money to Gaza, from which the militants of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad continue to fire rockets. And Israel believes it is coming from the Sinai Peninsula, smuggled through the border via the so-called Philadelphi Route.

The term emerged in 1982 following the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt and the subsequent demarcation of the border. According to that agreement, both sides deployed troops on their respective sides along the 14km line, a move that promised stability and security. But several years later, in 1987, during the First Intifada, Palestinians started digging tunnels under the axis, through which they smuggled goods and weapons, as well as militants and money. By 2005, when Israel evacuated its 17 settlements from Gaza and handed over control of the axis to the Palestinian Authority, the Islamic group already had hundreds of such tunnels, and their numbers continued to grow – especially after Hamas seized power in the enclave in 2007. “Initially, Egypt didn’t exert any significant efforts into stopping that smuggling, simply because it brought a lot of economic benefits to both sides,” said Dr. Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.

“It was during this time that Hamas boosted its arms arsenal, smuggling in weapons, money and technologies. It was also then, when Iranian and Hezbollah experts and technicians arrived in Gaza and taught Hamas engineers on how to develop their own industry,” he added. Then, in 2011, came the Arab Spring. The long-term ruler of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, was deposed, and the radical elements in Sinai started rearing their heads. Terror attacks have become a regular phenomenon, especially after 2014, when Daesh (Islamic State/IS) took control over most jihadist groups on the peninsula, establishing the so-called Wilayat Sinai. “These groups were against the newly established government of President Abdel Fattah A-Sisi. They were targeting the army and killing civilians across the country, so Cairo came to realize that there was cooperation between Hamas and those terrorists and it decided to break that link,” said Karmon.

Over the years, Cairo exerted multiple efforts into fighting the threat emanating from Sinai. It boosted its military presence on the peninsula, launched counterterrorism operations, and flooded hundreds of tunnels that linked Gaza to Egypt. But experts in Israel believe not all the loopholes were eliminated. Even more so, they are still being used to smuggle militants, weapons, and potentially Israeli hostages. This is why in recent weeks, a number of Israeli politicians, including Netanyahu, have stated that the Philadelphi Route should be recaptured, with Israel establishing full control over the territory. Karmon maintains Israel has no intention of occupying the area. Instead, the idea is that his country would just beef up its military presence in the region to maintain security. “Recapturing the area would be very difficult to execute, simply because we have a peace agreement with Egypt. Of course, there are right-wing voices who are calling for the occupation of Gaza or the building of settlements there, but Netanyahu understands the importance of these strategic relations with Cairo and he will not damage those ties,” the expert asserted.

However, in Egypt some are still worried. Hany Soliman, executive director of the Arab Center for Research and Studies (ACRS) in Cairo, says Netanyahu’s words are backed by actions. These include negotiations with the Americans on the construction of an underground wall on the Egyptian side. The project, which promises to be 1km deep and 13km long, will be equipped with sensors and other technology, enabling digging to be detected, and as such deterring radicals from trying their luck. The project is set to be funded by the US. But the possibility of such an endeavor taking place depends largely on the will of the Egyptians, says Soliman, and they might not want to rush it. “Firstly, on the political and security levels, Egypt will not sign such a protocol, especially at a time when there is a lack of clarity on Israeli intentions and when there are concerns about Israeli attempts to pass and impose their displacement plan,” he said. “And, secondly, let’s not forget the Palestinian Authority. It has full rights to object to this project. They can claim that the occupation of the Philadelphi axis is inconsistent with the Oslo Accords and that it infringes on their sovereignty”.

“During the Russian presidency of the BRICS this year, we will try to do everything possible for Egypt to effectively integrate into the work of the group..”

• Russia Will Do Everything to Integrate Egypt Into BRICS – Putin (Sp.)

Russia expects that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi will attend the BRICS summit in Russia’s Kazan scheduled for later in the year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday. “We are waiting for you, dear Mr. Sisi, at the unification summit [of BRICS] in Kazan in October this year,” Putin said during the ceremony of the start of the construction of the fourth power unit of Dabaa nuclear power plant (NPP). Russia has planned more than 200 BRICS events, and Moscow expects that representatives of Egypt will take an active part in them, the president said. “New promising opportunities for building up our fruitful cooperation are opening up in connection with Egypt’s accession to the BRICS. I would like to emphasize that from the very beginning, Russia sincerely supported the desire of the Egyptian side to become a full member of this association. During the Russian presidency of the BRICS this year, we will try to do everything possible for Egypt to effectively integrate into the work of the group,” Putin said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi launched on Tuesday the construction of the fourth power unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant (NPP) in Egypt via videoconference. Pouring the first concrete into the foundation of the building where the nuclear reactor will be located means the start of the construction of the entire new power unit. After this, the project will be implemented to full capacity — all four blocks of the nuclear power plant will be built simultaneously. Speaking about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during the launching ceremony, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he is in constant contact with his Egyptian counterpart on the issue.

“And in general, Sisi and I are in constant contact … we regularly discuss all the most significant issues on the international and regional agenda for our countries. In particular, we exchange opinions and coordinate positions in connection with the tragic development of the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and resolve issues of a humanitarian nature,” Putin said during the ceremony to launch the construction of the fourth power unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant.

“..catastrophic hunger. Intense fighting, access denials & restrictions + communications blackouts..”

• UN Agency Says 570,000 People in Gaza Strip Face Dire Hunger (Sp.)

About 570,000 people in the Gaza Strip face dire hunger, and the work of humanitarian organizations is difficult due to access and communication problems, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) said on Tuesday. “570,000 people in Gaza face catastrophic hunger. Intense fighting, access denials & restrictions + communications blackouts are hampering UNRWA’s ability to safely & effectively deliver aid. As risk of famine grows, UN calls for a critical increase in humanitarian access,” the UNRWA said on X . On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a large-scale rocket attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip, while its fighters breached the border and opened fire on the military and civilians.

As a result, more than 1,200 people were killed in Israel and some 240 others were kidnapped. Israel launched retaliatory strikes, ordered a complete blockade of Gaza, and launched a ground invasion of the Palestinian enclave with the stated goal of eliminating Hamas fighters and rescuing the hostages. More than 25,000 people have been killed in Gaza so far as a result of the Israeli attacks, according to local officials. On November 24, Qatar brokered an agreement between Israel and Hamas for a temporary ceasefire and the exchange of some prisoners and hostages, as well as the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The truce was extended several times and expired on December 1.

“At the same time, he stressed that the bloc nevertheless “closely monitors what Russia does”..”

• No Direct Threat From Russia – NATO (RT)

NATO sees no threat from Russia toward any of its members, the US-led bloc’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Tuesday during a press conference in Brussels. His comments come as several countries, including Germany and the Baltic states, have raised concerns of a potential future Russian attack. Answering questions from journalists following the signing of major new investments in artillery ammunition productions, Stoltenberg stated that, “We don’t see any direct or imminent threat against any NATO ally.” At the same time, he stressed that the bloc nevertheless “closely monitors what Russia does” and has increased its “vigilance and presence in the eastern part of the alliance,” in order to prevent any attacks on allied nations.

Meanwhile, German news outlets have reported in recent weeks that Berlin was preparing for a scenario in which Russia launches an “open attack” on NATO as early as the summer of 2025 after securing a major victory in Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also warned on Monday that his country should be ready to respond to a possible Russian attack even though there is no real threat as of now. “Deterrence is the only effective means of positioning oneself against an aggressor from the outset,” Pistorius told ZDF, calling on Germany and its NATO allies to commit to strengthening their military capabilities. Similar concerns have been voiced by other NATO members, such as Estonia, whose Prime Minister Kaja Kallas suggested last week that the bloc has three to five years to prepare for a possible direct confrontation with Russia.

Moscow has dismissed any claims that it intends to attack any NATO members as “complete nonsense,” with President Vladimir Putin arguing that Russia has “no geopolitical, economic … or military interest” in doing so. At the same time, the Kremlin has for decades voiced concerns that it was the US and its NATO allies’ continuous expansion to the east that posed an existential threat to Russia. Moscow has cited this expansion, which it believes threatens its national security, as well as the refusal to rule out Ukrainian NATO membership in the future, as some of the key reasons for launching its offensive against Kiev in February 2022.

There are more EU countries that tell these absurd stories.

• Germans Told To Prepare For Another War With Russia (RT)

Germany should be ready to respond to a possible Russian attack, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned. He said that to prepare for such a scenario, Germany and its NATO allies must commit to strengthening their military capabilities. In an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF on Monday, the defense chief pointed out that while Germany is not currently under a direct threat of attack, the country should do its best to be prepared for it. If Germany wants to be ready for an attack “that you don’t know if and when it will occur, then that means you have to arm yourself – and that’s what we’re currently doing together with allies in NATO,” he explained.

Pistorius went on to say that “deterrence is the only effective means of positioning oneself against an aggressor from the outset” as it signals to a potential adversary that the target is capable of striking back. To achieve such a posture, however, Germany must have “a credible deterrent” and be able to “wage a war that is forced upon us,” he noted. Commenting on a potential scenario in which Russia attacked the Baltics, Pistorius remarked that Berlin was setting up its “Lithuania Brigade” specifically to address those concerns. The unit, composed of about 4,800 soldiers is expected to be ready by 2027 and will be the first German force to be permanently stationed abroad since World War II. Pistorius suggested that amid the Ukraine conflict it would take Russia at least several years to be ready for a full-scale offensive, and that Western countries should use the time to intensively arm themselves.

The German tabloid Bild reported earlier this month, citing a classified document, that Germany is preparing for a scenario in which Russia launches an “open attack” on NATO in mid-2025, following major victories in Ukraine. Moscow mocked the prediction as a “zodiac forecast.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed claims that Russia could attack NATO as “complete nonsense,” arguing that Moscow has “no geopolitical, economic… or military interest” in doing so. Still, the Kremlin has for decades voiced concerns about the US-led military bloc’s expansion towards Russian borders, viewing it as an existential threat.

“Not only is Germany’s justification for rearmament in question but also the nation’s ability to afford it..”

• Germany Can’t Afford Rearmament, Let Alone a ‘War’ With Russia (Sp.)

Germany must take into account the possibility of a military conflict with Russia and prepare for it over the next three-five years, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told ZDF on January 22. He insisted that the German Bundeswehr armed forces should become “a credible deterrent,” and that a German combat brigade would be deployed in the Baltics to become “fully combat-ready” by 2027. In December, Pistorius signed an agreement for the permanent deployment of a Bundeswehr brigade to Lithuania. and announced that the reintroduction of compulsory military service in Germany is now on the table. Does Russia really present an imminent threat to German national security? “If you ask me, and if you ask most people in my party, the answer is unequivocally no,” Gunnar Beck, Member of the European Parliament for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party who is currently Vice-President of the Identity & Democracy Group in the Parliament, told Sputnik.

“Ever since 1990, at the end of the Soviet Union, the Russian government has gone out of its way to intensify economic relations between Russia and Germany. We had extremely favorable energy contracts with Russia. And Russia was a growing export market for our agricultural and industrial goods. It’s due to our government’s policy, vis-a-vis Ukraine conflict that relations with Russia are now almost at an all time low. So, on the one hand, I think, German policy and EU policy has been a provocation. Nonetheless, I think that the Russian reaction to the sanctions in particular has been tough, but at the same time measured. So in my view, Russia is no immediate security threat to Germany. Categorically not.” Not only is Germany’s justification for rearmament in question but also the nation’s ability to afford it, according to Beck. German industry is in a dire state as a result of the government’s policies, he stressed.

“Germany currently finds itself in what is probably the most serious economic crisis since the Second World War,” Beck said. “The government’s policies (…) are affecting all leading branches of German industry, which is suffering from high inflation, lack of qualified labor, bureaucracy and high tax levels. As a result, our exports have declined significantly. So we are in crisis, and German industry, which has always been the backbone of German prosperity, in particular, is in crisis.” He listed three major reasons for the new talk of militarization: First, the German government’s energy and climate change policy; Second, unprecedented migration into Germany from outside Europe of unskilled workers and the astronomical cost to German public finances; Third, Germany’s policies on Ukraine and sanctions imposed on the Russian economy.

Berlin’s decision to follow Washington’s lead and slap sweeping sanctions on Russia has backfired on Germans on a much greater scale than on any of their Russian counterparts, according to the politician. “In my view, Germany is in no fit state economically and financially to embark upon a massive rearmament program,” Beck said. “If the German government seriously did so, the consequence would be a further significant worsening of the economic crisis. The only way to finance such rearmament would be through a complete reversal of all the other policies and massive remigration of migrants from Germany. The government has given no indication that it is prepared to do so. In other words, I think these declarations are probably largely symbolic. Germany simply cannot afford it.”

“The situation is becoming undeniable and the fact that the elites are allowing discussion about a Ukraine loss suggests that defeat might be closer than we know..”

• Davos Admits Possibility Of Ukraine Defeat (ZH)

In a move that would have been unthinkable a year ago, the WEF has formed a discussion panel at their annual Davos conference titled “What If Ukraine Loses?” The panel represents, at the very least, an admission by the globalists that Ukraine could be defeated by Russia despite the deluge of money, armaments and intel assets that Ukraine has been given access to by western governments.Since 2022, the narrative has shifted from talk of complete victory over Russia including the retaking of the Donbas and even Crimea, to merely holding the current front and keeping a steady supply of ammo and recruits. The realities on the ground cannot be denied. The long vaunted “counter-offensive” that was supposed to crush Russian forces was a complete failure. No significant ground was gained and no significant victories have been won. It was a considerable propaganda error to hype up the counter-offensive the way Ukraine did, because when it turned out to be a dud all their other claims quickly came under suspicion.

At the end of 2023, the average age of Ukrainian soldiers was older than 40 (compare this to the US where the average age is 27). Rumors out of Ukraine abound that most younger soldiers are dead and that collection teams (government enforcers) now prowl the streets of cities like Kiev. They search for and kidnap any fighting age men they find, only to send them to the front with little or no training. These are the kinds of stories that go mostly ignored by the wider western media. When they are mentioned, it is usually in support of the Ukrainian government, chastising people who don’t want to fight and die in a globalist proxy war as “draft dodgers.” The level to which journalists have acted as a propaganda arm of NATO and Ukraine has been grotesque, but it does help to explain why so many Americans and Europeans were deluded about the war for so long. All they have heard about for the past two years is that Ukraine is on the verge of imminent victory.

It’s simply not true. This is likely why the WEF is now forced to address the issue at Davos – The situation is becoming undeniable and the fact that the elites are allowing discussion about a Ukraine loss suggests that defeat might be closer than we know. The panel itself is largely made up of Ukrainian representatives who are there to spin the facts, not have a frank discussion about the realities in the trenches. Journalist Niall Ferguson seems to be the only member with a modicum of honesty on the panel, as he admits the situation in Ukraine has degraded dramatically. He does, however, join with the Ukrainians in admonishing the American public’s growing opposition to monetary and military support. The underlying message? If Ukraine loses, it will be your fault.

Make peace you fools.

• Ukraine Spy Chief: Win “Not Even Conceivable” Without Mass Mobilization (ZH)

“The shortage [of manpower] is palpable,” Ukraine’s military top spy chief, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, told Financial Times in a new interview, describing the most pressing situation facing the country after nearly two years of war.He warned that “it is not even conceivable to think that we can do without mobilization” — which reflects the consensus of the military’s leadership, and strongly points to staggering losses by the Ukrainian side, though an official running casualty count has never been revealed. Russia has also likely suffered immense losses, but can tap into much greater manpower and artillery, which is also allegedly being supplied from such nefarious actors as North Korea. As part of its report, FT has reviewed that Zelensky recently revealed that his army chiefs requested him “to mobilize about 400,000 to 500,000 new soldiers to replace those killed or wounded, and to rest those involved in the most intense fighting.”

Still, Budanov tried to paint an optimistic picture at a moment that even mainstream US press has lamented the current state of the war as a total failure and disaster for Ukraine: Ukrainian troops never managed to decisively breach Russia’s heavily fortified defences: the frontline remains almost the same as it looked a year ago. But Budanov maintains he was not wrong. “Although the original plans suggested something different, we kept our promise. This summer, our units repeatedly entered Crimea,” he said, referring to his commandos sneaking on to the peninsula to carry out raids on Russian bases. Not only have Ukrainian operatives done brief but ineffective raids into Crimea, but the last several weeks have seen stepped-up cross border drone and rocket attacks against Russian border regions, particularly targeting Belgorod city, resulting in dozens of casualties over months of sporadic waves of strikes.

Many war analysts have looked upon these attacks on Russian territory as a sign of increasing desperation. The Ukrainian strikes have been focused on civilian areas of Belgorod, and have little or no strategic value, but is more an act of ‘revenge’ and perhaps part of seeking to impose a “cost” on the Russian population in hopes of pressuring the Putin government. Kiev has been mulling a new mass mobilization since at least December, when media reports first cited Zelensky as saying, “This is a serious number,” while explaining further he has to look at more arguments to support this direction.” He added at the time, “I need concrete information on what will (then) happen with the one-million military of Ukraine,” according to The Kyiv Independent.

Any new mass mobilization is likely to be met with fierce pushback among the population and some government officials. Already there have been signs of fracture within the government over what to do as it’s increasingly clear Ukrainian forces are ‘losing’ – especially in manpower, arms, and ammo. Zelensky’s security services and military recruiters have also been accused of abusing their power under martial law, also amid allegations of corruption, with The New York Times having previously reported Ukrainian army recruiters have become “increasingly aggressive in their efforts to replenish the ranks, in some cases pulling men off the streets and whisking them to recruiting centers using intimidation and even physical force.” There have even been reports of men with diagnosed mental disabilities being subjected to attempted drafts. Currently, men ages 18-60 may be mobilized and still have no right to leave Ukraine, per the stipulations under martial law.

On its way to first place.

• The German Establishment Wants To Ban AfD (Amar)

With really bad ideas, you can often ask two pertinent questions. First, why will it not work? Second, why would it be harmful if it did? That rule holds in Germany, where the really bad idea of banning the party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently getting much debate. The background of this debate is simple. Founded a decade ago, the AfD has established itself as a lasting feature of the political landscape. A populist right-wing party (roughly comparable to, for instance, the Austrian FPÖ), it brings together politicians and voters across a spectrum of positions. In the AfD, this spectrum ranges from very solidly conservative to far right. Still comparatively small, the AfD is significant. With currently just over 40,000 members, it holds 78 of 736 seats in the Bundestag, the central parliament in Berlin.

Importantly, it is also well-represented in 14 of 16 regional parliaments, where it occupies 242 seats of 1898 (for all regional legislatures taken together). In terms of its impact on national debates, it clearly punches far above this quantitative weight. Most importantly, however, the AfD is on a roll, on both the central and regional levels. If Germans were to vote for the Bundestag now – and thus in effect the chancellor’s office – the AfD would net 23%. That can be compared with the traditional center-left SPD, leading the hapless coalition government, at 14%. All parties from the ruling coalition (SPD, Greens, and the market-liberal FDP) together muster just 31% approval. On the regional level, the picture is largely the same, with particularly pronounced AfD advances in the area of the former East Germany.

For the Land of Brandenburg, for instance, a poll has the AfD in the lead with 28%, easily beating both the CDU mainstream conservatives (18%) and the SPD (17%). Adding insult to injury, AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla is also surpassing the SPD’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the personal-popularity scale, which is admittedly a low bar, as Scholz has managed to become one of the most disliked German politicians ever. No wonder that Germany’s under-qualified and somewhat hysterical minister of the economy, Robert Habeck, in whose head all of Russia seems to live rent-free, is publicly hallucinating that the AfD wants to make Germany like Russia. (The irony is, of course, is that with Habeck’s own mismanaged ministerial portfolio, quite a few Germans would welcome having Russia’s growth rates.)

Such rhetoric, as well as the timing of when the idea of an AfD ban is being floated, betrays the fact that the attempt to popularize the idea of outlawing the AfD is an opportunistic response to its increasing electoral clout, which of course cannot be openly admitted. So, those in favor of a ban argue that the AfD is an extremist party. But crucially here, extremism has a specific, legally (and narrowly) defined meaning. According to the German Constitution (Article 21.2), the Constitutional Court (and only that court) can prohibit a party when it substantially endangers the constitutional order of the Federal Republic or its existence itself. An important and often overlooked caveat, is it is not enough for a party to display hostility to the constitutional order. A prohibition is only an option if the party does so in an “active-combative, aggressive manner,” as Germany’s Ministry of the Interior puts it.

Only two parties have ever been banned, a far-right one in 1952 and a far-left one in 1956. Other attempts to proscribe parties (or to be precise, the same party) have also failed twice: In 2003 and again in 2017, the Constitutional Court refused to outlaw the very far-right NPD (Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands).

Half the “evidence” is gone. How convenient.

• Pelosi’s J6 Committee Deleted Over 100 Encrypted Files (PB)

It has been confirmed that the House Select Committee on Jan. 6 deleted more than 100 encrypted files from their investigation just days before Republicans gained control of the House. The House Administration Committee’s Oversight Subcommittee, chaired by Republican Barry Loudermilk of Georgia, is conducting an inquiry into January 6, 2021. The panel is looking at the security shortcomings that day, as well as the “actions” of the previous select committee investigating the Capitol riot. Loudermilk told Fox News Digital last week that his inquiry has entered a “new phase” with increased backing from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who has pledged extra resources to the panel’s investigation. According to sources familiar with Loudermilk’s investigation, the former J6 select committee, chaired by Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) was required by House rules to turn over all documents from its investigation to the new, GOP-led panel after Republicans took control of the House of Representatives following the 2022 midterm elections.

According to Fox News Digital, Thompson promised Loudermilk that the J6 select committee would give over four terabytes of archival material, but the new committee got just around two terabytes. Loudermilk’s committee hired a digital forensics outfit to search hard drives for material they were not provided. According to people familiar with the investigation, the forensics team discovered 117 files that had been erased and encrypted. The sources revealed that the files were erased on January 1, 2023, just days before Thompson’s staff was scheduled to transmit the material to the new committee. The forensics team has successfully retrieved all 117 deleted and encrypted files. Loudermilk is now requesting answers and passwords to get access to the material. Loudermilk issued to Thompson asking access to his forensic team’s retrieved digital data.

“As you acknowledged in your July 7, 2023 letter, the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol (Select Committee) did not archive all Committee records as required by House Rules,” Loudermilk wrote. “You wrote that you sent specific transcribed interviews and depositions to the White House and Department of Homeland Security but did not archive them with the Clerk of the House.” Loudermilk added that Thompson “claimed that you turned over 4-terabytes of digital files, but the hard drives archived by the Select Committee with the Clerk of the House contain less than 3- terabytes of data.” The Republican Congressman said that after doing a forensic study of the data and archived hard drives, he was able to retrieve “numerous digital records from hard drives archived by the Select Committee.”

“One recovered file disclosed the identity of an individual whose testimony was not archived by the Select Committee,” Loudermilk wrote. “Further, we found that most of the recovered files are password-protected, preventing us from determining what they contain.” Loudermilk requested that Thompson provide him “a list of passwords for all password-protected files created by the Select Committee” so that his committee could “access these files and ensure they are properly archived.” Meanwhile, the congressman sent letters to the White House general counsel and the General Counsel of the Department of Homeland Security, asking for “unedited and unredacted transcripts” of White House and DHS testimony before the old select committee. Loudermilk’s committee is aware that transcripts of these interviews exist, but claims they were not given over by the Thompson-led investigation.

“..the man Americans elected as the 45th president—and his team members—has been subjected to more bizarre allegations, secret investigations, partisan impeachments, preposterous indictments, and prejudiced legal proceedings than even Kafka could have imagined..”

• No One Is Safe in an Era of Kafkaesque Absurdity (Brooks)

“Someone must have been telling lies about Josef K., he knew he had done nothing wrong but, one morning, he was arrested.”—Franz Kafka, “The Trial.”

In Kafka’s early-20th-century novel, a reputable bank clerk is caught up in a prosecutorial nightmare. The story of Josef K. begins when court authorities suddenly arrive at his residence to tell him he’s to be indicted, but they can’t or won’t explain the exact nature of the charges against him. Josef K.’s accusers leave him with feelings of apprehension and anxiety. Throughout the novel, he struggles to defend himself within a hostile and complex legal process. At the end of the story, he’s led away to a summary execution. During the entire ordeal, the accused never really understands the reasons behind his mysterious prosecution. This dark story about the destruction of an innocent man led to the term “Kafkaesque” entering the English language as a way to describe situations in which honorable people are threatened by unfounded allegations. Kafka had a special talent for identifying the convergence between reality and absurdity.

A hundred years after “The Trial” was first published, the West has descended into an era in which absurd allegations are the new normal. In the Rainbow Reichs of the woke, witch hunting has become the order of the day.
One of the most notorious Kafkaesque events in modern history developed around the unforeseen political success of President Donald J. Trump.Over recent years, the man Americans elected as the 45th president—and his team members—has been subjected to more bizarre allegations, secret investigations, partisan impeachments, preposterous indictments, and prejudiced legal proceedings than even Kafka could have imagined. President Trump has endured some of the most savage and desperate partisan assaults in U.S. history. Despite it all, he has retained the loyalty of legions of ordinary citizens and is the leading candidate for reelection in 2024. Individuals throughout North America are praying that President Trump’s landslide victory in Iowa will lead to a decisive victory for the “Make America Great Again” movement.

[..] Few drag queen story hours feature the novels of Kafka, but the author’s insights remain valuable. Kafka understood that corrupt authorities have the capacity to ruin almost anyone they disapprove of. “The Trial” shows how Orwellian legal institutions can isolate individuals, make them appear guilty, and render them helpless. So far, President Trump has overcome the moral failures of the American judicial system, and he has an excellent chance of winning back the White House in 2024. Donald T. isn’t likely to suffer the same fate as Kafka’s Josef K. Francine C.’s future is considerably less certain. Without political support, financial resources, and professional help, challenges to the left by intrepid citizens are unlikely to continue. That’s why the suffocating nature of our Kafkaesque culture must be forthrightly resisted by honorable men and women.

“The president’s been clear, he’s been clear that we need to move on the border, he needs resources to deal with the situation at the border.”s

• Mayorkas Says Border Is Secure But Biden Says It Isn’t (MN)

During the White House press briefing Monday, a reporter asked Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre to explain why Joe Biden and DHS head Alejandro Mayorkas give conflicting answers when asked if the border is secure or not. As we highlighted, last Friday Biden admitted that the border is not secure and stated that has has not believed it has been secure for a decade, despite the fact that Mayorkas has stated and testified multiple times that he believes the border is secure. “On Friday, President Biden said that he does not believe the border is secure, which is different from what Secretary Mayorkas has testified multiple times on the hill, why do they have two different views of the security of the border?” the reporter asked during Monday’s briefing.

Jean-Pierre used the tired excuse that Biden is waiting on Congress to provide more funding for border security. “The president’s been clear, he’s been clear that we need to move on the border, he needs resources to deal with the situation at the border. That’s why they’re having this conversation at the Senate, on the senate level and that’s why he’s asking for more resources,” Jean-Pierre said, adding “There’s an issue at the border, we need to deal with it and we have to act now. There’s an urgent need to act now.” The claim that Biden is waiting for funding for more security is laughable considering that he is ordering Border Patrol to actively take down barriers erected by Texas state authorities and the National Guard:

Elsewhere during the briefing Monday, Fox News reporter Peter Doocy pointed out that “authorities in Fairfax County, Virginia, ignored an ICE detainer. They released an illegal immigrant from Honduras, who was charged with sexually assaulting a Virginia minor and production of sexual abuse material.” He then asked Jean-Pierre “Doesn’t that go to show that, as record numbers of people appear at the border, you guys have no idea what kind of people are coming into this country?” Jean-Pierre, of course, denied the charge and again blamed Congress. She also claimed that Biden has recently visited the border, when in reality he hasn’t been there for over a year, and even that only visit was little more than a pit stop.

“..It says that in the Constitution somewhere. Like, in Section 3 Article B or whatever.”

• Supreme Court Rules Texas Must Replace Barbed Wire With Giant Red Carpet (BBee)

In yet another 5-4 decision, the United States Supreme Court has ruled that Texas must remove all barbed wire along the border and replace it with a massive, plush red carpet. “How will migrants be able to get in the country if there’s barbed wire in the way?” said a visibly confused Justice Sotomayor. “They might get hurt! An elegant red carpet makes much more sense. It’s soft and red and can helpfully point the way to gaps along our border and make our new migrants feel welcome. It says that in the Constitution somewhere. Like, in Section 3 Article B or whatever.”

The border patrol responded to the ruling immediately and is now hard at work cutting gaps in the barbed wire fence and rolling out a red carpet across the border. “Hooo boy! This is just like in the Hollywood picture shows!” said one officer while rolling out a carpet for a small band of Al Qaeda operatives and Somali pirates. “Welcome to America, friends! You’re all stars to us!” The ruling also specified that migrants be supplied with limousines, bodyguards, and expensive gift bags filled with face creams and jewelry. “It’s the least we could do,” said Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. “It says that in the fourth paragraph of the 38th Amendment, I’m pretty sure.” At publishing time, Texas Governor Greg Abbott had desperately attempted to deter migrants by lining the red carpet with bear traps.

“Texas is being ordered to open its border completely and let millions of people flood the state and the rest of the country until everything Americans hold dear is left a smoldering ruin..”

• Supreme Court Rules It’s Illegal For National Guard To Guard Nation (BBee)

In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court has ruled that it’s now illegal for the Texas National Guard to guard Texas or the nation. “Using the National Guard to guard the nation is an egregious misuse of the National Guard,” wrote Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who sided with the majority. “When the federal government has decreed that the nation not be guarded so that millions of illegal immigrants will swarm the border and settle in cities across the nation to swing the 2024 presidential election for Biden, states have no right to disobey that decree by guarding their states.” As a result of the ruling, Texas is being ordered to open its border completely and let millions of people flood the state and the rest of the country until everything Americans hold dear is left a smoldering ruin. “It’s the compassionate thing to do,” said Jackson. At publishing time, the government had asked the National Guard to return to its normal task of fighting endless foreign wars.

Excess deaths

"The evidence is beyond a reasonable doubt that the vaccine is causing more deaths than the virus itself."

Only after the Covid vaccines became compulsory we saw a spike in excess deaths "you have to be really stupid to not see the correlation!" Dr. Augusto Zimmermann… pic.twitter.com/fA4OcfxR9T

— ADH TV (@adhtvaus) January 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/status/1749923876920762767

One of the two remaining northern white rhinos in the world, guarded 24 hours a day.

Acorn

Finally got his acorn pic.twitter.com/mjEqtuECWO

— Animal memes online (@catshouldnt) January 22, 2024

Chicken hypnosis

Fun fact

A chicken can be hypnotized with its head down near the ground, by drawing a line along the ground starting at the beak and extending straight outward in front of the chickenpic.twitter.com/mxYE2thOAQ

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) January 23, 2024

Owl

A sunbathing owl at Fuji Kachoen Garden Parkpic.twitter.com/KJUGdCGWWM

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) January 23, 2024

Pecteilis radiata is a species of orchid found in China, Japan, Korea and Russia. It is commonly known as the white egret flower. It is easily grown from tubers, and rewards you with blooms shaped like white birds with wings spread in flight.

Did you know?

NASA only uses 15 digits of π for calculating interplanetary travel.

At 40 digits, you could calculate the circumference of a circle the size of the visible universe with an accuracy that'd fall off by less than the diameter of a hydrogen atom. pic.twitter.com/ONNHZUEtm9

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) January 22, 2024

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

Debt Rattle January 23 2024

Jan 232024

January 23, 2024 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:40 am Finance Tagged with: AfD, Davos, digital ID, DOJ, Fico, Gaza, Medvedev, Netanyahu, Putin, Zelensky 45 Responses »

Salvador Dalí Dream, Caused by the Flight of a Bee (Around a Pomegranate, a Second Before Waking Up) 1944

• Will War Result From The Ever Hesitant Putin? (Paul Craig Roberts)

• The Four Horsemen of Gaza’s Apocalypse (Chris Hedges)

• Netanyahu’s Shape-Shifting ‘Endgame’ (Alastair Crooke)

• Russia’s Push for Palestinian State Can Stop Endless ‘Loop’ of Violence (Sp.)

• US Sees Ukraine As A ‘Lucrative Business Project’ – Lavrov (RT)

• US Forming ‘Colonial Administration’ In Ukraine – Russian Spy Chief (RT)

• Ukraine Must Give Up Territory – Fico (RT)

• Zelensky Brands Parts Of Russia ‘Historically’ Ukrainian (RT)

• Medvedev Denounces Zelensky’s ‘Territorial Claims’ To Russia (RT)

• AfD Leader Calls for German ‘Dexit’ Vote to Break From EU (Sp.)

• Russian Attack On Nato In 2044 (Zlatko)

• DOJ Seeking Retribution Against Journalist for Recent Jan. 6 Coverage (ET)

• The Pipe-Bomb Caper (Kunstler)

• Dutch Queen Promotes Digital ID at Davos (Martin Armstrong)

Salvador Dalí on the meaning behind his work pic.twitter.com/jhD9gpIg6k

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) January 21, 2024

Tucker Hunter

2019. Tucker Carlson lays out how "Middle Class Joe" helped the credit card companies destroy the middle class.

Long before Burisma was paying off Joe Biden through his son Hunter, the credit card company MBNA was doing the same thing.

Now Biden is buying votes by forgiving… pic.twitter.com/CN1ZTSR53B

— MAZE (@mazemoore) January 21, 2024

Biden inflation

Biden's presidency summed up in 18 seconds.

Wrong about everything. Takes responsibility for nothing. pic.twitter.com/ukvipUke5f

— MAZE (@mazemoore) January 22, 2024

RFK autism + allergy

I encourage DeSantis 2024 supporters to hear out RFK Jr’s signature pledge to unravel regulatory capture.

There is a candidate who’s been fighting this fight for 40 years:

“The chronic disease epidemic has now debilitated 60% of our young people. We have the highest chronic… pic.twitter.com/9lwf9kb06K

— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) January 21, 2024

Tucker Catturd

Ep. 67 Meet the man who made Adam Kinzinger cry. Catturd in the flesh. pic.twitter.com/FBkgJSDsIF

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) January 22, 2024

Stop counting

Imagine Joe Biden was winning a clear +300 electoral college vote victory on election night 2020.

All swing states were tight, but breaking for Biden. Data trending wrong way for Trump.

Then, suddenly the counting STOPS.

Magically, untraceable Trump votes “appear” overnight in… pic.twitter.com/GEqetYoSO0

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 22, 2024

The People’s Pundit: But that’s only half the story. The other half, is that they were lying. They actually continued to add to the totals between midnight and 3AM.

I’m asking honestly, without bias or preconditions:

WHEN in American election history have all 5 swing states *simultaneously* STOPPED counting ballots on election night?

Is there any explanation for this other than centrally organized fraud?

Anyone…?pic.twitter.com/u91RsFMrBT

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) January 22, 2024

“The failure to confront Russia’s enemies with defeats means the pressure against Russia, the ongoing provocations, and the humiliations inflicted will continue until Russia is forced into war.”

• Will War Result From The Ever Hesitant Putin? (Paul Craig Roberts)

I have often expressed my concern that the lack of proactive action by Putin, Xi, and Iran was maximizing the expansion of Israeli and US aggression in the Middle East and leading to a dangerous confrontation and outbreak of nuclear war. It is the purpose of Israel and Washington to attack Iran. That is what the Israeli-Hamas-Hezbollah-Washington-Houthis conflict is about. It is an entirely simple matter for Russia, China, and Iran to prevent any expansion of Israel’s war against Palestine. All they have to do is to announce a mutual defense treaty: An attack on one is an attack on all. But proactive action does not seem to be in the skill set of Washington’s targeted enemies. With the single exception of Putin’s intervention in Syria to prevent Obama’s invasion, Putin has proved to be ever hesitant about taking control of the situation. It took him eight years to abandon his delusion about the Minsk Agreement. When he finally realized that he had been taken for a ride, the Russian military was not prepared for the level of violence required. Consequently a war that Russia should have won in a few days is two years old and continuing.

From my experience with the liberal Russian intelligentsia, I would say that their program is surrender to Washington. They would rather be invited as visiting professors to Harvard, Yale, and Stanford, and to serve as consultants to American corporations than to be in conflict with the West. As Putin seems to believe toleration of subversion is a sign of democracy, he could have been prevented from required action by pressure to prove that he is not, as the entirety of the West proclaims, a dictator. Putin would have saved many lives by ignoring the propaganda of his enemies and being more forceful in Russia’s defense. But now Putin is showing more awareness of what needs to be done. News reports which I saw in the Indian press, not in the American whore media, a collection of paid liars, say that, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russia and Iran are finalizing a pact stressing their commitment to fundamental principles of Russian-Iranian relations, including unconditional respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In a way this is good news. It indicates that Putin has finally realized that left unprotected, Iran is vulnerable, and if Iran goes, Washington has a direct entry to send “jihadists” into the Russian Federation and the former Soviet central Asian republics. But once again, like with the nonsensical “Minsk Agreement,” Putin has made an error. The pact has been announced before it goes into effect. It is unclear when this acknowledgement of mutual association is to be finalized. So the message to Washington and Israel is to attack Iran now before the agreement goes into effect. There is risk that this will happen. By trying to avoid the expansion of conflict in the Middle East, when conflict is Washington’s and Israel’s intention, Putin by his non-intervention, has given a green light for the expansion of conflict.

Moreover, the Russian-Iranian pact does not seem to be, except, by implication, a mutual defense pact. You can bet that Victoria Nuland and Israel’s American neoconservative agents who control US foreign policy will try to strike Iran before the pact is is in effect or they will argue that it is not a mutual defense agreement. It seems that Russia, China, Iran, and Israel’s Muslim enemies think that words count when nothing but action counts. In the West words are meaningless. Only actions count. And Russia’s are missing. Now, let me back off a bit. There are other indications of progress toward an environment less able to be turned into war by Washington. China had the foresight to broker a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This was a fundamental blow to Washington. This rapprochement, if it holds against Washington’s counter offer, has expanded Putin’s organization BRICS to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. This gives new meaning to Saudi Arabia’s abandonment of the petro-dollar.

There is even a potential good sign on Russia’s part. Russia has announced air patrols over the Syrian Golan border with Israel. Putin prevented Washington’s invasion of Assad’s Syria but then went soft. Putin has left the Syrian oil fields in Washington’s hands. Putin has permitted both Israel and the US to conduct air and missile attacks on Syrian territory, apparently preventing Syria from using the Russian-supplied S-300 air defense system to protect Syrian territory. It remains to be seen if this means anything. The Russians have been sufficiently weakened by Western influence that they now have, associated with the Defense Ministry a “Center for Reconciliation.” This center says the air patrols are just for monitoring. In other words, there will be no military intervention, so it is largely meaningless. The failure to confront Russia’s enemies with defeats means the pressure against Russia, the ongoing provocations, and the humiliations inflicted will continue until Russia is forced into war.

There is a great deal of talk about American over-extension, outmoded weapon systems, excessive debt, inability to recruit for the military, etc., most of which is true. But the neoconservatives in control are still full of confidence, and this confidence is ever encouraged by Putin’s lack of decisive action. The war that is shaping up appears to be unavoidable. I know that it seems arrogant, egocentric, and self-glorifying to appear to be giving advice to Putin. But that is not what I am doing. I am describing a situation. To preclude a US/Israeli attack on Iran, there needs to be a Russia-China-Iran alliance which probably should include Turkey. Right NOW Iran needs the highly effective Russian air defense systems and, if Iran doesn’t have them, the hypersonic Russian long distance offensive missiles. Putin showed a strategic side when he committed the Russian Air Force to Syria’s defense, thus blocking Syria’s invasion by Obama. But he was very late getting into the game, almost too late. The multipolar world that Putin is always talking about cannot materialize without a Russian-Chinese-Iranian mutual defense treaty. Without more strategic vision and action on the part of Russia and China, war is unavoidable.

“Joe Biden’s inner circle of strategists for the Middle East — Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk..”

• The Four Horsemen of Gaza’s Apocalypse (Chris Hedges)

Joe Biden’s inner circle of strategists for the Middle East — Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk — have little understanding of the Muslim world and a deep animus towards Islamic resistance movements. They see Europe, the United States and Israel as involved in a clash of civilizations between the enlightened West and a barbaric Middle East. They believe that violence can bend Palestinians and other Arabs to their will. They champion the overwhelming firepower of the U.S. and Israeli military as the key to regional stability — an illusion that fuels the flames of regional war and perpetuates the genocide in Gaza.

In short, these four men are grossly incompetent. They join the club of other clueless leaders, such as those who waltzed into the suicidal slaughter of World War One, waded into the quagmire of Vietnam or who orchestrated the series of recent military debacles in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. They are endowed with the presumptive power vested in the Executive Branch to bypass Congress, to provide weapons to Israel and carry out military strikes in Yemen and Iraq. This inner circle of true believers dismiss the more nuanced and informed counsels in the State Department and the intelligence communities, who view the refusal of the Biden administration to pressure Israel to halt the ongoing genocide as ill-advised and dangerous.

Biden has always been an ardent militarist — he was calling for war with Iraq five years before the U.S. invaded. He built his political career by catering to the distaste of the white middle class for the popular movements, including the anti-war and civil rights movements, that convulsed the country in the 1960s and 1970s. He is a Republican masquerading as a Democrat. He joined Southern segregationists to oppose bringing Black students into Whites-only schools. He opposed federal funding for abortions and supported a constitutional amendment allowing states to restrict abortions. He attacked President George H. W. Bush in 1989 for being too soft in the “war on drugs.” He was one of the architects of the 1994 crime bill and a raft of other draconian laws that more than doubled the U.S. prison population, militarized the police and pushed through drug laws that saw people incarcerated for life without parole. He supported the North American Free Trade Agreement, the greatest betrayal of the working class since the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act. He has always been a strident defender of Israel, bragging that he did more fundraisers for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) than any other Senator.

“As many of you heard me say before, were there no Israel, America would have to invent one. We’d have to invent one because… you protect our interests like we protect yours,” Biden said in 2015, to an audience that included the Israeli ambassador, at the 67th Annual Israeli Independence Day Celebration in Washington D.C. During the same speech he said, “The truth of the matter is we need you. The world needs you. Imagine what it would say about humanity and the future of the 21st century if Israel were not sustained, vibrant and free.” The year before Biden gave a gushing eulogy for Ariel Sharon, the former Israeli prime minister and general who was implicated in massacres of Palestinians, Lebanese and others in Palestine, Jordan and Lebanon — as well as Egyptian prisoners of war — going back to the 1950s. He described Sharon as “part of one of the most remarkable founding generations in the history not of this nation, but of any nation.”

“Israel’s only answer (to the issue of how to maintain Zionism) was to keep the State’s borders undefined – whilst holding on to scarce water and land resources..”

• Netanyahu’s Shape-Shifting ‘Endgame’ (Alastair Crooke)

The late Ariel Sharon, a long-time Israeli military and political leader, once confided to his close friend Uri Dan that, “the Arabs had never genuinely accepted the presence of Israel … and so, a two-state solution was not possible – nor even desirable”. In the minds of these two – as well as for most Israelis today – is the ‘Gordian Knot’ that sits at the heart of Zionism: How to maintain differential rights over a physical terrain that includes a large Palestinian population. Israeli leaders believed that in Sharon’s unconventional approach of ‘spatial ambiguity’, Israel was close to evolving a solution to the conundrum of managing differential rights within a Zionist majority state, which includes substantial minorities. Palestinians, many Israelis believed (until recently), were being successfully contained in a striated political and physical space – and were even being “disappeared” from significance – only for Hamas, on 7 October, to blow apart that whole elaborate paradigm.

This event has triggered a widespread and existential fear that the Zionist project could possibly implode, were its Zionist exceptionalist foundations to be rejected by a wide resistance ready to take the issue to war. U.S. journalist Steve Inskeep’s recent piece – Israel’s Lack of Strategy is the Strategy – brings into focus the seeming paradox: That whilst Netanyahu is very clear about that which he does not want, he at the same time remains obstinately opaque about what he does want as a future for Palestinians living on a shared terrain. For those who think that Middle East peace might (or should) be Netanyahu’s goal, this opacity appears as a serious ‘flaw’ to resolving the Gaza crisis. However, if Netanyahu (backed by his cabinet, and a majority of Israelis) offers no strategy for peace with the Palestinians, then perhaps its omission is not ‘a bug’, but is its feature.

To understand the underlying oxymoron, you have to grasp why Ariel Sharon and Uri Dan ‘said what they said’, and understand how Sharon’s military experience from the 1973 War effectively has shaped the entire Palestinian paradigm. In 2011, I wrote a piece in Foreign Policy which postulated that Sharon’s notion of Palestinian Permanent Ambiguity was – and has been – the Zionists’ principle answer to how to bypass the paradox inherent within Zionism. Thirty years later, it still lurks in all of Netanyahu’s (and Israeli leaders across the political spectrum’s) recent pronouncements. Even in 2008, Foreign Minister (and lawyer), Tzipi Livni, was spelling out why “Israel’s only answer (to the issue of how to maintain Zionism) was to keep the State’s borders undefined – whilst holding on to scarce water and land resources – leaving Palestinians in a state of permanent uncertainty, dependent on Israeli goodwill”.

And I noted in a separate piece: “Livni was saying that she wanted Israel to be a Zionist state – based on the Law of Return and open to any Jew. However, to secure such a state in a country with very limited territory – means that land and water must be kept under Jewish control, with differential rights for Jews and non-Jews – rights that affect everything, from housing and access to land, to jobs, subsidies, marriages and migration”. A two-state solution inherently therefore, did not solve the problem of how to maintain Zionism; rather, it compounded it. The inevitable demand for full equal rights for Palestinians would bring the end of Jewish ‘special rights’, and of Zionism itself, Livni argued – a threat with which most Zionists concur. Sharon’s answer to this ultimate paradox, however, was different: Sharon had an alternative plan for managing a large non-Jewish ‘out-group’, physically present within a Zionist State of differentiated rights. Sharon’s alternative amounted to frustrating a two-state solution within fixed borders.

“Without the establishment of a Palestinian state, there can be not reliable security for Israel,” Lavrov said.”

• Russia’s Push for Palestinian State Can Stop Endless ‘Loop’ of Violence (Sp.)

A lasting resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli crisis is the keystone to regional stability, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said. “The main focus of efforts should be the creation of a Palestinian state in full compliance with the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council. The state described in these decisions would be competent and would exist in security and good neighborliness side by side with Israel and other countries in the region,” Lavrov said, speaking at a press conference on the results of Russian diplomacy in 2023 on Thursday. “Without the establishment of a Palestinian state, the Palestinian people will continue to feel disadvantaged and disenfranchised. Generation after generation of young Palestinians will fell this injustice and pass it on to their children. This must end through the creation of a Palestinian state. I hope that the Israeli leadership will eventually come to this conclusion…Without the establishment of a Palestinian state, there can be not reliable security for Israel,” Lavrov said.

The foreign minister announced plans to address the United Nations Security Council next Tuesday to discuss how the crisis in the Middle East can be resolved through “collective efforts,” in place of current attempts by the United States to “advance its agenda around the world.” “Perhaps our Western colleagues should learn some life lessons. And the countries of the region must insist that they are the ones who live here, and that for them, the security of all states [in the region] is of decisive importance to them. No one wants to prohibit advice from the outside, but the final decisions should be made by regional countries themselves,” Lavrov stressed. The creation of a Palestinian state is the “dream” of the Arab and Muslim World, and Russia’s position on the Palestinian-Israeli crisis indicates a very good understanding of the Middle East, says Riyadh-based political analyst Dr. Ahmed Al Ibrahim.

Russia’s position on Palestinian statehood is “going to be very well-received,” Al Ibrahim told Sputnik. “It’s going to cause stability. It’s going to give a lot of ground for the foreign policy of Russia to integrate here in the Muslim-Arab World. If Russia succeeded in that, then Russia has solved the most crucial thing in the history of this region by aligning Israel and Palestine to be together next [to each other]. And they’re going to win the hearts and the minds of the Arab and the Muslim World.” Attempts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have been spearheaded by the United States for some seven decades, Al Ibrahim recalled, noting that in all this time “nothing happened except destruction for the Palestinian land, and more expansion, more settlers taking lands.”

“Definitely the whole world would welcome Russia and the BRICS members to be mediating this. But the solution is going to be very hard. Russia and the BRICS members [would] have to coordinate with the United States and with Britain because they are the majority stakeholders of this file, in order to yank it from them and do something on the ground,” the political analyst noted. Otherwise, unless a genuine, multilateral effort is launched to establish Palestinian statehood, the cycle of violence being seen today will continue indefinitely, Al Ibrahim believes. “The real core of the problem is in the deep mind and the deep state of the Israelis,” Al Ibrahim stressed. “Do they want a two-state solution?

We still see at the Knesset, when you enter the building, a big map – a big Israeli state from the [Jordan] River to the Sinai. If this is the creed of the Israelis, then there is no point of anybody mediating and Israel needs to work within themselves in order to come up an evolution to change their mindset and work to have a peaceful neighboring country with the Arab World supporting them. By reaching that, Israel is going to gain a lot by normalizing relationships with many Arab and Muslim countries,” he emphasized. “But if they’re going to play the cat and mouse game, you know, ‘I say something and I do something else on the ground,’ this is not going to work,” Al Ibrahim said, saying Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Arab countries and the Muslim World in general are too smart to be tricked by such deception.

“..not as a war that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives … but as a profitable business project.”

• US Sees Ukraine As A ‘Lucrative Business Project’ – Lavrov (RT)

Recent statements from the US suggest it regards Ukraine as nothing but a “lucrative business project,” one that it is profiting from, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the UN Security Council on Monday. The minister was referring to earlier statements made by US State Secretary Antony Blinken. Last month, the top US diplomat claimed that 90% of the money allocated for Ukrainian aid ends up getting funneled back to the US “to the benefit of American business, local communities, and strengthening the US defense industrial base.” In November 2023, the Washington Post also reported that the majority of these funds were spent on manufacturing new weapons or replacing the equipment sent to Ukraine out of American stockpiles.

The US is essentially “developing its military industrial” complex while “dumping the old junk in Ukraine,” Lavrov said. Russia’s top diplomat also claimed that most major Ukrainian companies, including lithium producers, are being sold to Americans and US companies have been able to get their hands on Ukraine’s fertile land “on the cheap.” Lavrov denounced the statements made by US officials as “cynical” and said that Washington has been treating the ongoing conflict “not as a war that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives … but as a profitable business project.” Moscow is waging a military campaign not against Ukraine but against “a criminal regime, presumptuous in its impunity,” he declared.

Kiev has not forgone on the “war against its own citizens in the east and south” despite years-long efforts by Moscow to find a peaceful solution to this crisis, he explained, adding that over 7 million Ukrainians had found refuge in Russia since the 2014 Maidan coup. Kiev’s Western backers have never tried to stop the government from persecuting Russian-speaking Ukrainians, the minister said, accusing the US and its allies of using the past few years to “arm Ukraine and prepare it for war against Russia,” while using the Minsk Agreements as a cover. Russia is ready for talks on Ukraine but it is not willing to discuss ways to keep Kiev’s current government in power, Moscow’s top diplomat concluded.

“Zelensky realizes that the damaging data that the Americans have is capable of destroying him as president. In this situation, he’ll continue to dance to the tune of his American masters..”

• US Forming ‘Colonial Administration’ In Ukraine – Russian Spy Chief (RT)

Washington has begun creating “a colonial administration” in Ukraine consisting of local politicians who have sworn allegiance to the US, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has said. The US government has demanded that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky “remove” dozens of high-ranking officials, whom Washington no longer trusts, from their posts under various pretexts, Sergey Naryshkin claimed on Monday. Washington wants those jobs to be filled by “Ukrainians trained in the West, who have sworn allegiance to American interests,” he said in comments cited by the SVR press service. “As part of the policy of total vassalization of Ukraine, the US has started forming what is essentially a colonial administration in that country,” the spy chief stated.

According to Naryshkin, the required changes in the Ukrainian government were relayed to Zelensky during his visit to Washington in December. “The Americans are pushing for Ukrainian ambassador to Washington Oksana Markarova, who received her education at Indiana University Bloomington, to take the post of prime minister. The deputy head of the Finance Ministry, Alexander Kava, who studied at Harvard University, is being suggested for the job of finance minister. The current deputy head of the Economy Ministry, Taras Kachka, a graduate of Poland’s National School of Public Administration (KSAP), is recommended for the post of economy minister,” he said. The latest high-profile change in the Ukrainian cabinet follows the pattern described by Naryshkin. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who replaced Zelensky’s ally Aleksey Reznikov in the job last fall, used to participate in the Future Leaders Exchange program, funded by the US State Department.

The Biden administration, which is in possession of a “killer corruption dossier” on members of Zelenksy’s inner circle, is threatening to make this information public if Ukrainian leader refuses to greenlight the desired personnel decisions, the spy chief claimed. “Zelensky realizes that the damaging data that the Americans have is capable of destroying him as president. In this situation, he’ll continue to dance to the tune of his American masters,” Naryshkin predicted. The US, which has provided Zelensky’s government with $111 billion in military and economic assistance since the start of the conflict with Russia, already has advisers embedded in all key Ukrainian ministries, but Washington believes this is not enough and is “steadily increasing Kiev’s feudal dependence,” Naryshkin said.

“What are [the Ukrainians] waiting for? That the Russians will leave Donbass and Lugansk, or that they will leave Crimea? It’s unrealistic,” Fico insisted.”

• Ukraine Must Give Up Territory – Fico (RT)

Ukraine should concede the loss of some of the territories that were previously under its control in order to end the conflict with Russia, Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Fico has said. Fico made the statement during a weekend interview with broadcaster RTVS dedicated to his upcoming visit to Ukraine. The Slovak PM is scheduled to travel on Wednesday to Uzhgorod, a city near the border between the two countries, for a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Denis Shmygal. The ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev can’t be resolved through military means and should end in compromise that might be “painful for both sides,” he said. “What are [the Ukrainians] waiting for? That the Russians will leave Donbass and Lugansk, or that they will leave Crimea? It’s unrealistic,” Fico insisted.

The People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk were officially incorporated into the Russian state in the fall of 2022, together the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as a result of referendums held in those areas. Crimea has been a part of Russia since 2014. The continuation of the fighting that has been underway since February 2022 will only make Moscow stronger, Fico added. The Slovak premier also said Ukraine was “not a sovereign, independent country” due to it being “under the absolute influence of the US.” He criticized the EU for making “a huge mistake” of following Washington’s lead when it comes to dealing with Kiev, instead of developing its own “sovereign” view on the issue. As for his talks this week with Shmygal, Fico promised to tell his Ukrainian counterpart that he’s against Kiev’s membership in NATO, as that would be “exactly the basis of World War Three,” and to reiterate that President Vladimir Zelensky’s government won’t be getting any more weapons from Bratislava.

The prime minister’s interview caused angry reaction in Kiev, with the head of the Ukrainian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee Aleksandr Merezhko demanded that Fico’s trip to Ukraine be canceled for his “disgraceful statements” that crossed “the red line.” “Every country should have at least minimal self-respect. It’s absolutely unacceptable to pretend that nothing is happening when the leader of another state makes statements that question the sovereignty of a state” that he’s about to visit, Merezhko wrote on Facebook. Fico made a comeback as Slovakia’s prime minister in October after his party won the snap election in the EU country, campaigning on promises of, among other measures, cutting military aid to Kiev and improving ties with Moscow.

Scott Ritter: The Ukraine Scam is Coming to an End

New Rules sat down with Scott Ritter to discuss his recent trip to the Donbass, pro-Ukraine grifters on social media, and the contempt that Western elites have for ordinary Ukrainians.
#Ukraine #Zelensky #NewRulesPodcast pic.twitter.com/k6E9I0IlTR

— NewRulesGeopolitics (@NewRulesGeo) January 22, 2024

The MO: crazy claims.

• Zelensky Brands Parts Of Russia ‘Historically’ Ukrainian (RT)

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky declared six Russian regions to be “historically inhabited by Ukrainians” in a decree published on Monday. The list does not include any of the territory that Kiev claims sovereignty over in the ongoing conflict with Moscow, and focuses on globally recognized parts of Russia. The document includes Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions, all of which border Ukraine. It also lists Voronezh, Rostov, and Krasnodar regions, all of which bordered Ukraine before 2014, when Crimea decided to join Russia in a referendum and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics declared independence from Kiev. Zelensky claimed the population of these territories had been subjected to “the policy of forced Russification,” and ordered the government in Kiev to develop “an action plan” to “preserve” Ukrainian “national identity” in Russia.

The decree calls on Russia to “provide Ukrainians living in its territories” with access to education in the Ukrainian language, as well as access to Ukrainian-language mass media and special “civil, social, cultural, and religious rights.” Moscow has never imposed any restrictions on the Ukrainian language. Russia’s education minister, Sergey Kravtsov, said in July 2022 that “no one was banning” it, and that it would be taught in schools where necessary. Zelensky’s decree also tasks the Ukrainian government and the National Security and Defense Council with “collecting and studying facts and testimonies about crimes” supposedly committed against Ukrainians in Russia throughout its history, as well as “countering disinformation and propaganda” about Ukrainian history, allegedly spread by Moscow.

The president also instructed the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences to “prepare materials” on the “thousand-year-old history” of Ukraine and distribute them around the world. The country’s educational programs and textbooks should also contain “the true history of ethnic Ukrainians,” Zelensky added. The Russian regions mentioned in the decree have repeatedly been targeted by Ukrainian missile and drone attacks as well as shelling since the start of hostilities with Moscow in February 2022. Zelensky’s decree comes just weeks after Kiev launched a major attack on the city of Belgorod. The strike, which according to the Russian Defense Ministry involved the use of banned cluster munitions, claimed the lives of 25 people, including children, and left more than a hundred injured. In mid-January, a child was injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the city of Voronezh – the capital of another region Zelensky claimed was “historically inhabited by Ukrainians.”

The developments come amid Kiev’s attempts to ban the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) – the country’s biggest Christian denomination, which is reported to have more than 8,000 parishes. The Ukrainian government has long accused it of having ties with the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Ukraine in its pre-2014 borders was largely “created” by the Soviet leadership over the course of the 20th century. Historically, “Ukrainian lands” included a much smaller territory, he has argued. When the Cossacks living on the territory of modern Ukraine broke away from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 17th century following the Bogdan Khmelnitsky uprising and asked the then-Tsardom of Russia to take them in, the territory they controlled effectively amounted to present-day Kiev, Chernigov, and Zhitomir regions – three areas in the north of Ukraine, the Russian president said in 2022.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1749432104612405410

“Medvedev dismissed the decree as a “crude PR stunt” aimed at drawing public attention away from the Ukrainian forces’ failures on the front lines..”

• Medvedev Denounces Zelensky’s ‘Territorial Claims’ To Russia (RT)

The latest decree by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky essentially amounts to “territorial claims” on sovereign Russian regions, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday. Posting on Telegram, he was referring to a document declaring six Russian regions to be “historically inhabited by Ukrainians.” Signed on Monday, Ukraine’s Day of Unity, the presidential decree claims that six territories that are universally recognized as a part of Russia – the Krasnodar, Rostov, Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions – had been “historically” populated by “ethnic Ukrainians” that were then supposedly subjected to “forced Russification.” The document then orders the Kiev government to develop an “action plan” to “preserve” the Ukrainian national identity in Russia and demands the “true history” of Ukraine be made known to the “world.”

It also demands Russia provide people living in these regions with access to Ukrainian-language mass media and to some special “civil, social, cultural and religious rights.” Medvedev dismissed the decree as a “crude PR stunt” aimed at drawing public attention away from the Ukrainian forces’ failures on the front lines. He also said there was even no need to comment on the contents of the order, since the territories mentioned in it have always been part of Russia. The former president (2008-2012) also said it was high time Zelensky “stopped” such policies and abandoned them, or he might end up “annexing Canada in the near future.” Zelensky himself described signing the decree as a way to promote “truth about Ukrainians… and their history.” He also claimed that it was aimed at “restoring the truth about the historical past for the Ukrainian future.”

The Russian regions mentioned in the decree have been regularly subjected to drone and missile attacks as well as shelling by the Ukrainian troops. In December, Belgorod – the capital of one of the regions supposedly “historically inhabited by Ukrainians” – was struck by a major Ukrainian attack. The strike claimed the lives of 25 people, including children. The Russian Defense Ministry also said that Kiev’s forces used banned cluster munitions in an attack targeting the city center just a day before New Year’s Eve celebrations.

Scholz will try to ban the AfD.

• AfD Leader Calls for German ‘Dexit’ Vote to Break From EU (Sp.)

The Alternative for Germany party promotes direct voting on legislation and strict immigration controls. It was the subject of nationwide protests last week after some of its members were spotted at a meeting that advocated for mass deportation of immigrants in Germany, including those with German passports. Britain was “dead right” to leave the European Union and Germany should consider its own “Dexit,” the leader of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) Alice Weidel said in an article published in US media on Monday. “If reform isn’t possible, if we fail to rebuild sovereignty of the EU member states, we should let the people decide, just as Britain did,” she said, adding that “we could have a referendum on ‘Dexit’ – a German exit from the EU.”

A recent poll found that only 45% of AfD members would currently vote to leave the EU and only 10% of the general population said they would. It is worth noting that opinions can shift rapidly. In late 2014, only 36% of Britons said they would support the UK leaving the EU; less than two years later, more than half voted for “Brexit.” The AfD is leading the polls in five East German states and is polling second nationally at 22%. The party hopes to make gains at both the European Parliamentary elections in June and the regional elections in September. However, AfD’s high polling numbers may not reflect how much power the party will have in the near term. Establishment parties, including conservative-leaning ones, have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, limiting its potential power.

Weidel admitted that the issue will limit her party’s power in the short term but believes the “firewall” will not last forever, pointing to the conservative establishment CDU party, which includes former chancellor Angela Merkel, as the first likely to break. “The CDU will not be able to maintain its firewall in the long term,” Weidel said. She added that the last year proved “that we can form a clear right-wing majority. And the CDU can’t refuse to accept that in the long term, especially in the eastern states.” Weidel admitted her party is unlikely to take control until 2029 at the earliest. It is currently polling only behind the CDU but is ahead of every other party, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three coalition parties.

X thread. War games.

• Russian Attack On Nato In 2044 (Zlatko)

Europe is being frightened by the “scenario of a Russian attack on NATO” in 2044. Former US commander Hodges and defense analyst Sam Cranny-Evans put together “their” scenario: “This is not about Russia trying to take over all of NATO. This is not what their goal will be in 20 years. It would be about destroying NATO as an alliance by invading the eastern flank and conquering critical places – like the Arctic – that would benefit them,” General Hodges said. In their opinion, everything will begin with cyber attacks on transport chains, after which a missile attack will be launched on key infrastructure facilities in Europe.

The ground operation will begin in Finland, where tanks controlled by artificial intelligence will “enter.” At the same time, the Suwalki corridor will be taken under control and the Baltic countries will be attacked. The Russian Navy, as planned by Hodges, will take control of the Arctic regions. “There is even the possibility of some kind of conflict in space, where satellites are used to attack each other or jam satellites, which has already been done at a lower level in Ukraine,” Cranny-Evans added. Ostashko reports.

The best take on this, from a commenter:

Then aliens will come down and mate with all the women in Sweden, Orcs will invade France and steal all the wine, and Zelensky will have run off with Von Der Layen and fathered 20 children……..

“..events described under oath by two Capitol Police officers in the first Oath Keepers trial in 2022 could not have happened, based on Mr. Baker’s examination of security video..”

• DOJ Seeking Retribution Against Journalist for Recent Jan. 6 Coverage (ET)

Attorneys for a journalist threatened with prosecution for being at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, are challenging federal prosecutors to try his case outside the District of Columbia, suggesting prosecutors are seeking retribution for his recent reporting on possible Capitol Police perjury and the Jan. 6 pipe bombs. Six attorneys who said they volunteered to represent Stephen Baker of Raleigh, N.C., released a statement on Jan. 22 expressing belief that the DOJ is seeking even more serious Jan. 6 charges as retaliation. Mr. Baker, a former independent journalist, now writes for Blaze Media. “We now have information that Steve’s reporting has so agitated officials in multiple federal agencies that an effort is now underway to find a basis to charge Steve with more serious crimes and to use those more serious crimes as a pretext for early morning raids to execute search and arrest warrants on him and his family,” the statement read.

“If this is true, and search and arrest warrants are used to drag Steve out of his house in the early morning hours someday soon, that will be evidence of retaliation against a journalist exercising his First Amendment rights to report information that is embarrassing to government officials.” The statement is signed by five well-known Jan. 6 defense attorneys: James Lee Bright, Brad Geyer, Phillip Linder, William Shipley, and Edward Tarpley Jr. It was also signed by Mr. Baker’s Raleigh-based attorney, Matthew Ceradini. Mr. Geyer and Mr. Shipley were federal prosecutors for more than two decades. “After not having indicted me for three years, it is clear that any move to do so now will be in retaliation for my reporting,” Mr. Baker wrote in a news release. “I will not be intimidated. I will continue to report the findings of my investigation into the evidence being made available to me to review,” he said.

The attorneys challenged the DOJ to try any case against Mr. Baker in the eastern district of North Carolina where Mr. Baker lives, or the northern district of Texas, where his employer, Blaze Media, is located. “Are citizens of those two districts not suitable jurors in Steve’s case?” the statement asked. “Is the federal judiciary in those two districts not able to provide a fair and impartial trial? “On what basis does the United States Department of Justice believe the ‘United States’ can only get a fair trial in the District of Columbia and not one of those ‘United’ States?” Mr. Baker’s most recent coverage identified the person who found one of the two pipe bombs on Jan. 6 as an undercover U.S. Capitol Police officer and not a “passerby.” Since October 2023, he wrote a series of stories that said events described under oath by two Capitol Police officers in the first Oath Keepers trial in 2022 could not have happened, based on Mr. Baker’s examination of security video.

Mr. Geyer suggested that reporting should result in the Oath Keepers’ convictions being thrown out. Mr. Baker was one of dozens of journalists at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. His video footage appeared in an HBO film and was licensed by the BBC, The New York Times, and The Epoch Times. Mr. Baker was first contacted by the FBI in July 2021 about his presence at the Capitol. He voluntarily sat down with FBI special agents in November 2021. He said he was told the DOJ was considering charging him with interstate racketeering because he received money from licensing his Jan. 6 video. In March 2023, he said he was warned by a high-profile journalist that his reporting was chafing some high-level DOJ officials. In August, he was served a subpoena for his Jan. 6 video. In December, the FBI told his attorney that his arrest was imminent, although that plan was subsequently delayed.

Investigative journalist for @theblaze Steve Baker (@TPC4USA) refuses to let the Biden DOJ intimidate him as he continues to uncover more truth regarding what really happened on J6. He tells @EmeraldRobinson there's much more to come! pic.twitter.com/6YvclIkUIj

— The Absolute Truth with @EmeraldRobinson (@AbsoluteWithE) January 23, 2024

“..the falsely-elected, tyrannically corrupt, and epically deranged regime fronted by the ghost-in-the-White House, “Joe Biden.”

• The Pipe-Bomb Caper (Kunstler)

“The FBI must come forward with the whole truth, immediately. If they will not, then Republicans have a duty to tear the FBI down to its foundation, and ensure that no government organization is allowed to amass this kind of power ever again.” — Charlie Kirk . Kudos to Darren J. Beattie of Revolver News and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) for doing the FBI’s work for the FBI, smoking out the role of law enforcement (including the FBI) in but one module of the J6 operation that turned a peaceful mass assembly of disgruntled voters into a riot in order to color it as an “insurrection” and so destroy opposition to the falsely-elected, tyrannically corrupt, and epically deranged regime fronted by the ghost-in-the-White House, “Joe Biden.”

Mr. Massie arranged to extract previously unseen video from the Capitol Police vaults showing the exceedingly strange behavior of various law-men in the minutes after one of their number reported a pipe-bomb beside a park bench, a few steps away from their parked vehicles, outside the DNC headquarters near the US Capitol building around one o’clock in the afternoon on J6/21, just around the time that a joint session of Congress would commence the entertainment of official complaints and objections to the certification of votes in the 2020 presidential election. Of course, that proceeding was disrupted by events outside and inside the US Capitol, and those many complaints and objections were never registered.

Two cars are shown parked blocking the driveway to the basement garage: a white Washington DC Metro Police SUV and a black Secret Service cruiser — because Veep Kamala Harris happened to be in the building at the time. A man with a backpack, later identified as a plainclothes Capitol Police officer, steps up first to the Metro car, then to the Secret Service cruiser, cueing minutes of slow milling-about by the officers in the two cars. Eventually several cops dawdle over to the bench to inspect what turns out to be a pipe-bomb planted in plain sight on the ground there. The video shows no effort to cordon-off the area or to stop cars or pedestrians (children) from entering the scene near the bomb.

“The power they tasted during the lockdowns opened Pandora’s Box..”

• Dutch Queen Promotes Digital ID at Davos (Martin Armstrong)

Queen Maxima of the Netherlands took to the Davos stage to declare that digital IDs are necessary for nearly every aspect of social engagement. The Dutch queen told the World Economic Forum (WEF) that they can no longer trust the people, and digital IDs will provide governments with a clear way to track our behavior. Vaccine passports are necessary to tell “who actually got a vaccination or not,” highlighting how those at the top do not trust the public. They want complete unilateral control. In fact, she believes that children should not be allowed to enroll in school unless they have a digital ID that includes their vaccination passport. “It [digital ID] is also good for school enrollment; it is also good for health – who actually got a vaccination or not; it’s very good actually to get your subsidies from the government,” she said to a room of nodding heads. Want to open a bank account? You must present a digital ID.

Now the Netherlands implemented a COVID certificate that was required for travel throughout the EU. Citizens were provided yellow vaccination booklets that they were required to carry throughout the pandemic. Mass protests erupted, but the government did not drop restrictions until 72% of the population was already injected. Over 40% of restaurants said they would not ask patrons to show proof of vaccination to enter. Prime Minister Mark Rutte immediately fired Deputy Economic Affairs Minister Mona Keijzer for questioning the vaccine passport. “If we end up in a society where we have to be afraid of each other unless we can show proof, then you really have to scratch your head and ask yourself: Is this the direction we want to go?” Dissent is no longer tolerated. The power they tasted during the lockdowns opened Pandora’s Box. The Dutch government must realize they will be met with resistance as the Dutch people will not allow the government to control them without a fight.

Foal

This kind-hearted man brings a newborn foal that can't breathe back to life with a professional touch pic.twitter.com/FkE6t5oxS0

— Enez Özen | Enezator (@Enezator) January 22, 2024

Bouzouki bear
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749553698412335104

When humans lose weight, fat is eliminated and leaves the body. 80% of the fat is exhaled through the lungs as carbon dioxide

Lyrebird

The superb lyrebird is an Australian songbird. It is one of the world's largest songbirds, and is renowned for its elaborate tail and courtship displays, and its excellent mimicry pic.twitter.com/WD1mXFqhHS

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) January 22, 2024

Cathedral
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749361361044517131

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Left Behind

Sep 262017

September 26, 2017 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 1:21 pm Finance Tagged with: AfD, fool, intentions, lies, Merkel, Nazis, pitchfork, QE, Spain, Trump 7 Responses »

Fan Ho The Evening of Life 1963

“Forget Germany, Spain Is The Real Problem”, reads a headline. Eh… no. Germany is definitely the problem in Europe. Spain is a bit player. That doesn’t mean nothing major could happen in Spain in its fight with Catalonia, and soon, but Spain, like all EU nations, is a de facto province of Germany.

What matters in the end is how Brussels and Merkel deal with Spain. And while it’s tempting to say that perhaps Brussels, the EU, is the main European problem, the European Union is run exclusively by and for Germany, so that doesn’t work either.

The only thing that might work if you really want to find a bigger issue than Germany is if you would point at the role the incessant lies about economic conditions for people play. But that’s not a European issue, that’s global.

The talk about how economies are recovering, how there’s light at the end of the tunnel, and how any day now we’ll be back to where we were at some point in time that many can not even remember. But then, at least when it comes to Europe, that happy talk comes from Germany too, to a large degree. Just wait till Draghi starts cutting his QE.

You can try and tell people that they’re doing just great, using the media you control, and it’ll work for a stretch, if only because they want to believe it, badly, but when these same people can’t even feed their children while you make such claims, you will eventually lose their attention and support. The difference between beliefs and experiences.

If you’re a politician, you try to feed people what they want to hear, invariably an upbeat message, but there comes a time when you have to back it up. You can say that austerity is necessary, inevitable, and the only choice, and it will be beneficial to them, but austerity is one of those things that have a very limited best before date.

If you can only make employment numbers look good by creating a gig economy that takes away all their benefits, and their entire sense of security, they’re going to turn their backs on you. Because you’re lying.

Rising inequality is a one way street right up to the point where it turns into a dead end alley. Inequality breeds more inequality until it no longer can, until people say ‘I want that cake you are having because my kids are hungry. And I brought a pitchfork’.

That is where we’re at, and that is why Merkel lost some 25% of her votes. That is why there’s Trump and Brexit, and why an impossible candidate like Marine Le Pen in France gathered so much attention and support. It’s why eastern European countries will start fighting Brussels and Berlin much harder than they have to date, and why Berlin will fight back harder than it has. Poor Greece.

In the US, there’s only one party, and it divvies up the spoils of very rich campaign contributions. Bernie Sanders tried to circumvent this; not a chance. Trump succeeded. In Britain, there was no difference between left and right for a long time, and no alternative party either. That led to Brexit. In France, Macron started a whole new party from scratch and somehow got it funded (bankers?!). It wiped the left off the map.

The same happened in Holland, where like in France the right wing alternative was judged too unpalatable by too many. No left left. The leaders of Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland do not have the visibility for that yet. In Italy, Five Star have a good shot at the throne. Greece’s Syriza already overtook both left and right. In eastern Europe, right wing parties often didn’t even have to overthrow an existing order, they could just slide in.

The pattern is so obvious only those who stand to lose from acknowledging it end up not seeing it, or telling themselves it’s all just an incident. But it’s not, because the shrinking economies everywhere are not. When left and right, either in public or in practice, rule a country together and their promises don’t hold up, people will look for a way out. If far right is the only way available, they will pick that.

It’s not because they’re all nazis or something like that. But people do lean towards smaller units of organization, decentralization, when they get poorer. And despite all the talk of recovery, that is what most people have seen happen to their lives, while their leaders told them they’re just fine. So you get this kind of headline (and map) for the US (h/t Mish/ZH).

Large Parts Of America Are Being Left Behind

Economic prosperity is concentrated in America’s elite zip codes, but in an interesting report on Distressed Communities, from The Economic Innovation Group, it is increasingly clear that economic stability outside of those communities is rapidly deteriorating. As Axios noted, this isn’t a Republican or Democratic problem. At every level of government, both parties represent distressed areas. But the economic fortunes of the haves and have-nots have only helped to widen the political chasm between them, and it has yet to be addressed by substantial policy proposals on either side of the aisle. Economic Prosperity Quintiles.

And a very similar headline appears in the Guardian in a report about the German election.

‘A Lot of People Feel Left Behind’: Voters on the Far-Right Surge in Germany

Sarah, 37, teacher, Bonn: “A lot of people feel left behind. They are looking for scapegoats. It is the easy way to deal with problems. The AFD makes use of this feeling. With the grand coalition, there was no real debating culture left. The CDU went too much into the middle, leaving the right out. Just like the SPD under Schröder left the left-wing out.”

Perhaps a lot of those who voted for Trump, and Brexit, Le Pen, Wilders, the AfD, are not so much looking for scapegoats, they’ve identified those as their incumbent politicians; they’re instead looking for a way away from them. All these people who feel left behind base that feeling primarily on their deteriorating economic circumstances. And if the only alternative they have rants, against foreigners and immigrants, they’ll go with that.

Angela Merkel pushed over 1 million refugees and immigrants down the German population’s throats. She never asked their opinion. But many Germans are not doing any better than many Americans or French or British. So the consequences of such things are predictable. You have to explain, you have to communicate with your people. Just saying ‘we can do this’ is not enough. No more than ‘change we can believe in’ was. It’s just hollow.

Merkel lost ‘only’ 25% of her votes. Because Germans know what right wing is, and what it can do. Germany is not full of nazis, no more than America is. Both countries just have a lot of people who feel trapped in a web of lies, and their existing and alleged democratic systems offer no way out of that web.

All these countries, the people and their politicians, have the tendency to see their situations as somehow unique, but they’d be much better off looking at what they have in common with others.

The only solution is to tell people the truth, that the incumbent political class has screwed up badly because of limited brain capacity and unlimited greed, and that they should elect people next time who are both smarter and less sociopathic. But that is not something that comes voluntarily, that takes a battle. And it tends to end careers, and lives.

That is what we can expect. In many different shapes and forms, but all for the same underlying reasons. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time, you can’t even fool a majority for long. You can only fool a limited number of them for a limited amount of time.

Well, time’s up.

Debt Rattle September 26 2017

Sep 262017

September 26, 2017 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 8:33 am Finance Tagged with: AfD, casino, EU, extinction, Greece, Macron, Merkel, pesticides, Puerto Rico, Trump 2 Responses »

Paul Cézanne Curtains 1885

• Lenders Loosen Mortgage Standards as Demand Falls (WS)

• Levered Loan Volumes Soar Past 2007 Levels As “Cov-Lite” Deals Surge (ZH)

• China’s Crackdown Brings Developers Crashing Back to Earth (BBG)

• The Next Crisis Will Start in Silicon Valley (BBG)

• King Cash May Reign For Weeks In Storm-Ravaged Puerto Rico (BBG)

• The White House as Donald Trump’s New Casino (Nomi Prins)

• Large Parts Of America Are Being Left Behind (ZH)

• ‘A Lot Of People Feel Left Behind’ – Why Far Right Won In Germany (G.)

• Macron Presses Ahead With His Vision for Europe As Merkel Calls For Calm (BBG)

• EU Presidency Calls For Massive Internet Filtering (EDRi)

• EU Officially Ends Excessive Deficit Procedure Against Greece (R.)

• ECB May Frontload 2018 Bank Stress Tests With View To Greece – Draghi (R.)

• French Government Declares War On Pesticides (AFP)

• Our Food Crops Face Mass Extinction Too (G.)

• Sixth Mass Extinction Of Wildlife Also Threatens Global Food Supplies (G.)

The last step before the fall.

• Lenders Loosen Mortgage Standards as Demand Falls (WS)

The toxic combination of “competition from other lenders” and slowing mortgage demand is cited by senior executives of mortgage lenders as the source of all kinds of headaches for the mortgage lending industry. Primarily due to this competition amid declining of demand for mortgages, the profit margin outlook has deteriorated for the fourth quarter in a row, according to Fannie Mae’s Q3 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. And the share of lenders that blamed this competition as the key reason for deteriorating profits “rose to a new survey high.” Demand is down for all three types or mortgages: • Mortgages eligible for guarantees by Government Sponsored Enterprises, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (“GSE Eligible”), indirectly backed by taxpayers. • Mortgages not eligible for GSE guarantees (“Non-GSE Eligible”), not backed by taxpayers. • Mortgages guaranteed by Government agencies, such as Ginnie Mae, directly backed by taxpayers.

And how are lenders combating this lack of demand and the deteriorating profit margins that are being pressured by competition? They’re loosening lending standards. Fannie Mae’s report: Lenders further eased home mortgage credit standards during the third quarter, continuing a trend that started in late 2016. In particular, both the net share of lenders reporting easing on GSE-eligible loans for the prior three months and the share expecting to ease standards on those loans over the next three months increased to survey highs. Lenders’ comments suggest that competitive pressure and more favorable guidelines for GSE loans have helped to bring about more easing of underwriting standards for those loans. This chart shows the net share of lenders reporting loosening their lending standards for each type of loan (= the share of lenders reporting loosening credit standards minus those reporting tightening standards):

In many urban markets home prices have soared far beyond their peaks during the prior crazy housing bubble. That bubble ended with such spectacular results, in part because lending standards had been loosened so that more people could be stuffed into more homes, and more expensive homes that they couldn’t afford, and whose prices then plunged when the scheme fell apart. This time around, home prices, according to the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index, are now about 5% above the prior crazy bubble peak that imploded with such fanfare:

Everything’s a casino now.

• Levered Loan Volumes Soar Past 2007 Levels As “Cov-Lite” Deals Surge (ZH)

If a surge in covenant-lite levered loans is any indication that debt and equity markets are nearing the final stages of their bubbly ascent, then perhaps now is a good time for investors to take their profits and run. As the Wall Street Journal points out this morning, levered loans volumes in the U.S. are once again surging, eclipsing even 2007 levels, despite the complete implosion of bricks-and-mortar retailers and continued warnings that “the market is getting frothy.” Volume for these leveraged loans is up 53% this year in the U.S., putting it on pace to surpass the 2007 record of $534 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s LCD unit. n Europe, recent loans offer fewer investor safeguards than in the past. This year, 70% of the region’s new leveraged loans are known as covenant-lite, according to LCD, more than triple the number four years ago.

Covenants are the terms in a loan’s contract that offer investor protections, such as provisions on borrowers’ ability to take on more debt or invest in projects. “If feels like the market is getting frothy,” said Henrik Johnsson at Deutsche Bank. “We’re overdue a correction.” Meanwhile, volumes are surging even as traditional lender protections have become basically nonexistent. As S&P LCD points out, over 70% of levered loans issued so far in 2017 are considered “covenant-lite” versus only 30% of those issued in 2007. Before the financial crisis, the boom in leveraged loans was one of the signs of markets overheating. As the crisis intensified in 2008, investors in U.S. leveraged loans lost nearly 30%, according to the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index.

Regulators are taking note. In its last quarterly report, the Bank for International Settlements noted the growth of covenant-lite loans and pointed out that U.S. companies are more leveraged than at any time since the beginning of the millennium. That could harm the economy in the event of a downturn or a rise in interest rates, said the BIS consortium of central banks.

Not quite yet. But they will.

• China’s Crackdown Brings Developers Crashing Back to Earth (BBG)

The world’s most extreme stock rally is getting a reality check. After share price gains at Chinese property developers accelerated at a breathtaking pace in the past month, led by an 87% surge in Sunac, the momentum has started to turn as authorities have taken a harder line on reining in financial risks. Six of the 10 best performers on the MSCI All-Country World Index in the one month through Sept. 21 were Chinese real estate firms. Chinese developers had their biggest slump in six years on Monday, before some rebounded on Tuesday. Record home sales and buoyant earnings helped spur an unprecedented rally this year for Chinese developers, especially large firms positioned to wrest market share through debt-fueled acquisitions.

Top of that list are the nation’s two most indebted developers – China Evergrande Group and Sunac – whose shares swelled 459% and 391% respectively. Some investors were starting to question how long the astonishing share gains could last, even before a raft of housing curbs over the weekend. “The drop of property stocks today brings a reality check,” Andy Wong at Pictet Asset Management said in a briefing Monday. “In the past few months investors have been focusing purely on growth. But it’s never wise to totally ignore the risk of leverage.” Sunac shares have plunged almost 16% from a Sept. 19 high, amid the general pall over the sector and news that a financial firm is scrutinizing its loans to Sunac, China’s most leveraged developer.

Evergrande shares have tumbled more than 12% in the past three trading sessions, matching the decline in a Bloomberg index of 22 mainland developers. Even with the recent selloff, Chinese developers remain among the world’s best-performing stocks this year. Evergrande and Sunac two top stocks in the MSCI All-Country World Index this year. Part of that rally was stoked by a housing market boom that buoyed developers’ earnings in the first half, sending sales soaring and boosting profit margins to the highest levels in three years, according to calculations based on earnings reports.

It’s where the excess cash has gone.

• The Next Crisis Will Start in Silicon Valley (BBG)

Since 2007, a tremendous wave of innovation has swept across the financial sector, affecting almost every aspect of finance. New robo-adviser startups like Betterment and Wealthfront have begun dispensing financial advice based on algorithmic calculations, with little to no human input. Crowdfunding firms like Kickstarter and Lending Club have created new ways for companies and individuals to raise money from dispersed networks of individuals. New virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have radically changed our understanding of how money can and should work. These financial technology (or “fintech”) markets are populated by small startup companies, the exact opposite of the large, concentrated Wall Street banks that have for so long dominated finance.

And they have brought great benefits for investors and consumers. By automating decision-making and reducing the costs of transactions, fintech has greased the wheels of finance, making it faster and more efficient. It has also broadened access to capital to new and underserved groups, making finance more democratic than it has ever been. But revolutions often end in destruction. And the fintech revolution has created an environment ripe for instability and disruption. It does so in three ways. First, fintech companies are more vulnerable to rapid, adverse shocks than typical Wall Street banks. Because they’re small and undiversified, they can easily go under when they hit a blip in the market. Consider the case of Tokyo-based Mt. Gox, which was the world’s biggest bitcoin exchange until an apparent security breach took it down in 2014, precipitating losses that would be worth more than $3.5 billion in today’s prices.

Second, fintech companies are more difficult to monitor than conventional financial firms. Because they rely on complex computer algorithms for many of their essential functions, it’s hard for outsiders to get a clear picture of the risks and rewards. And because many of their technologies are so new and innovative, they may fall outside the reach of old and outdated regulatory structures. The recent proliferation of “initial coin offerings,” for example, has left regulators around the world scrambling to figure out how to respond. Third, fintech has not developed the set of unwritten norms and expectations that guide more traditional financial institutions.

In 2008, when Lehman Brothers was teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the heads of the largest Wall Street investment banks gathered in New York to coordinate their actions and prevent further panic. It’s hard to imagine something like that happening in the fintech world. The industry is so new, and the players so diverse, that companies have little incentive to cooperate for the greater good. Instead, they prioritize aggressive growth and reckless behavior.

If this is not a wake-up call for you…

• King Cash May Reign For Weeks In Storm-Ravaged Puerto Rico (BBG)

In post-hurricane San Juan on Monday, commerce picked up ever so slightly. With a little effort, you could get the basics and sometimes more: diapers, medicine, or even a gourmet hamburger smothered in fried onions and Gorgonzola cheese. But almost impossible to find was a place that accepted credit cards. “Cash only,” said Abraham Lebron, the store manager standing guard at Supermax, a supermarket in San Juan’s Plaza de las Armas. He was in a well-policed area, but admitted feeling like a sitting duck with so many bills on hand. “The system is down, so we can’t process the cards. It’s tough, but one finds a way to make it work.” The cash economy has reigned in Puerto Rico since Hurricane Maria decimated much of the U.S. commonwealth last week, leveling the power grid and wireless towers and transporting the island to a time before plastic existed.

The state of affairs could carry on for weeks or longer in some remote parts of the commonwealth, and that means it could be impossible to trace revenue and enforce tax rules. The situation further frustrates one of the many challenges already facing a government that has sought a form of bankruptcy protection after its debts swelled past $70 billion: boosting revenue by collecting money that slips through the cracks. In fact, the power blackout only exacerbates a situation that has always been, to a degree, a fact of life in Puerto Rico. Outside the island’s tourist hubs, many small businesses simply never took credit cards, with some openly expressing contempt for tax collectors and others claiming it was just a question of not wanting to deal with the technology.

But those were generally vendors of bootleg DVDs, fruit stands, barbers — not major supermarkets. Now, the better part of the economy is in the same boat. Cash was in short supply. Many Puerto Ricans were still living off what money they thought to withdraw ahead of the storm. Most ATMs on the island still weren’t working because of the power outage or because no one had refilled them. In Fajardo, a hard-hit coastal area, the paper printouts taped to sheet metal storm shutters read: “Cash only, thank you.”

Washington has been a casino for decades.

• The White House as Donald Trump’s New Casino (Nomi Prins)

During the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized that our country was run terribly and needed a businessman at its helm. Upon winning the White House, he insisted that the problem had been solved, adding, “In theory, I could run my business perfectly and then run the country perfectly. There’s never been a case like this.” Sure enough, while Hillary Clinton spent her time excoriating her opponent for not releasing his tax returns, Americans ultimately embraced the candidate who had proudly and openly dodged their exposure. And why not? It’s in the American ethos to disdain “the man” – especially the taxman. In an election turned reality TV show, who could resist watching a larger-than-life conman who had taken money from the government?

Now, give him credit. As president, The Donald has done just what he promised the American people he would do: run the country like he ran his businesses. At one point, he even displayed confusion about distinguishing between them when he said of the United States: “We’re a very powerful company – country.” Of course, as Hillary Clinton rarely bothered to point out, he ran many of them using excess debt, deception, and distraction, while a number of the ones he guided personally (as opposed to just licensing them the use of his name) – including his five Atlantic City casinos, his airline, and a mortgage company – he ran into the ground and then ditched. He escaped relatively unscathed financially, while his investors and countless workers and small businesses to whom he owed money were left holding the bag.

We may never fully know what lurks deep within those tax returns of his, but we already know that they were “creative” in nature. As he likes to put it, not paying taxes “makes me smart.” To complete the analogy Trump made during the election campaign, he’s running the country on the very same instincts he used with those businesses and undoubtedly with just the same sense of self-protectiveness. Take the corporate tax policy he advocates that’s being promoted by his bank-raider turned Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin. It’s focused on lowering the tax rate for multinational corporations from 35% to 15%, further aiding the profitability of companies that already routinely squirrel away profits and hide losses in the crevices of tax havens far removed from public disclosure.

People are being left behind everywhere.

• Large Parts Of America Are Being Left Behind (ZH)

Economic prosperity is concentrated in America’s elite zip codes, but in an interesting report on Distressed Communities, from The Economic Innovation Group, it is increasingly clear that economic stability outside of those communities is rapidly deteriorating. As Axios noted, this isn’t a Republican or Democratic problem. At every level of government, both parties represent distressed areas. But the economic fortunes of the haves and have-nots have only helped to widen the political chasm between them, and it has yet to be addressed by substantial policy proposals on either side of the aisle.

Economic Prosperity Quintiles

As MishTalk.com’s Mike Shedlock writes below, the study notes: “America’s elite zip codes are home to a spectacular degree of growth and prosperity. However, millions of Americans are stuck in places where what little economic stability exists is quickly eroding beneath their feet.” Distress is based on an evaluation of seven metrics.
• No high school diploma
• Housing vacancy rate
• Adults not working
• Poverty rate
• Median income ratio
• Change in employment
• Change in business establishments

Change in Distress Quintiles

Merkel acts like an empress.

• ‘A Lot Of People Feel Left Behind’ – Why Far Right Won In Germany (G.)

Despite gains made by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the breaking up of the ‘grand coalition’ could mark a positive step for Germany, according to voters who responded to our online callout. Here voters in Germany tell us why they think the AfD made gains, and what hopes they have for the future of the country’s politics.

‘A lot of people feel left behind’ – Sarah, 37, teacher, Bonn My second vote was a tactical one. I gave it to the Linke. I knew that we’ll need a very strong voice against the AfD. I am pleased though, that the SPD decided to go into opposition to redefine themselves. A lot of people feel left behind. They are looking for scapegoats. It is the easy way to deal with problems. The AFD makes use of this feeling. With the grand coalition, there was no real debating culture left. The CDU went too much into the middle, leaving the right out. Just like the SPD under Schröder left the left-wing out.

The impact of the newly arrived is big. Some people are scared. Some that have been living in Germany for a long time feel disadvantaged. We can live together and be united in our diversity. I see this in school every day. If we treat each other with respect, then we do not need to fear. It is a long and strenuous way. But it is also very rewarding and fun to walk down that lane. At dinner I really had to get hold of myself to not cry in front of my children. I physically felt sick. A Nazi party being the third biggest party in Germany! I am still devastated.

More Europe is dead.

• Macron Presses Ahead With His Vision for Europe As Merkel Calls For Calm (BBG)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel already faces complex coalition negotiations with at least three other parties. Now French President Emmanuel Macron wants in on the act. In a speech at the Sorbonne in Paris on Tuesday, Macron will make proposals for re-shaping Europe that he acknowledges will require Merkel’s support to push through. While he isn’t seeking to interfere in German domestic politics, it makes sense to air the ideas before a coalition is formed rather than after, an official in his office told reporters. Macron needs Germany’s backing for planned overhauls of areas ranging from defense and immigration to the economy. Yet with Merkel weakened in Germany’s vote and her potential Free Democratic coalition partner even more hostile to aspects of euro-area integration than her own party, the prospect of radical change in Europe looks to have diminished.

“There was this expectation that the election would strengthen the German-French alliance, all kinds of reforms would be tackled and then we’re on the road to fiscal union,” Oliver Adler, head of economic research at Credit Suisse in Zurich, said in an interview. “This now seems politically very unlikely.” Macron will press ahead with his vision of remaking European institutions anyway, seeking to set the direction of debate. While a key element of his reform package is intended to reinforce the euro against future shocks, his speech won’t be all about the single currency area. Macron will propose as many as 10 projects in his speech, including a European agency for innovation and a system to improve start-up funding, a larger Erasmus student-exchange project, increased anti-terrorism cooperation, and a “digital plan” that includes a joint effort to push the EU Commission for a plan to tax Internet giants such as Apple and Google.

The goal is to have a roadmap in place by the summer of 2018 that will equip the EU for its next decade, according to the French official. Macron intends to discuss his plans with fellow EU leaders at a summit in the Estonian capital Tallinn at the end of this week. He may struggle to engage Merkel after Martin Schulz, her Social Democratic election challenger, upset her own plans by announcing his intention not to renew their respective parties’ coalition of the past four years.

Politicians don’t understand technology.

• EU Presidency Calls For Massive Internet Filtering (EDRi)

A Council of the European Union document leaked by Statewatch on 30 August reveals that during the summer months, that Estonia (current EU Presidency) has been pushing the other Member States to strengthen indiscriminate internet surveillance, and to follow in the footsteps of China regarding online censorship. Standing firmly behind its belief that filtering the uploads is the way to go, the Presidency has worked hard in order to make the proposal for the new copyright Directive even more harmful than the Commission’s original proposal, and pushing it further into the realms of illegality. According to the leaked document, the text suggests two options for each of the two most controversial proposals: the so-called “link tax” or ancillary copyright and the upload filter. Regarding the upload filter, the text offers two alternatives:

Option A maintains the Commission’s original proposal of having in place an upload filter which will be under the control of platforms and other companies that are hosting online content. Although it removes mentions to “content recognition technologies”, in reality, there is no way to “prevent the availability” (another expression which remains in the text) of certain content without scanning all the content first. Option B is, at best, a more extreme version of Option A. In fact, it seems so extreme that it almost makes the first option look like a reasonable compromise. This may, of course, be the “diplomatic” strategy. In this extreme option, the text attacks again the liability regime of the e-commerce Directive – which, bizarrely, would not be repealed, leaving us with two contradictory pieces of EU law but adds a “clarification” of what constitutes a “communication to the public”.

This clarification establishes that platforms (and its users) would be liable for the copyright infringing content uploaded by its users. The proposals in this leak highlight a very dangerous roadmap for the EU Member States, if they were to follow the Presidency’s lead. The consequences of these flawed proposals can only be prevented if civil society and EU citizens firmly raise their voices against having a censorship machine in the EU. We will be turning on our call tool at savethememe.net before each of the key votes in the European Parliament. Make use of the tool, and call your representatives to stop the #censorshipmachine!

Oh, get real: “a recognition of the tremendous efforts and sacrifices the Greek people have made to restore stability to their country’s public finances.”

• EU Officially Ends Excessive Deficit Procedure Against Greece (R.)

European Union states decided on Monday to close disciplinary procedures against Greece over its excessive deficit after improvements in Greece’s fiscal position, confirming the country’s recovery is on the right track. The move, although largely symbolic, sends a new signal that Greece’s public finances are again under control, facilitating the country’s plans to tap markets after a successful issue of bonds in July which ended a three-year exile. EU fiscal rules oblige member states to keep their budget deficits below 3% of their economic output or face sanctions that could entail hefty fines, although so far no country has received a financial penalty.

Greece had a 0.7% budget surplus in 2016, and is projected to maintain its fiscal position within EU rules’ limits this year. “In the light of this, the Council (of EU states) found that Greece fulfils the conditions for closing the excessive deficit procedure,” the EU said in a note. “After many years of severe difficulties, Greece’s finances are in much better shape. Today’s decision is therefore welcome”, Estonia’s finance minister Toomas Toniste said. The EU states’ decision confirmed a proposal by the EU executive commission in July to end the disciplinary procedure for Greece. The economics commissioner Pierre Moscovici said the decision was “a recognition of the tremendous efforts and sacrifices the Greek people have made to restore stability to their country’s public finances.”

Good cop bad cop. Rinse and repeat.

• ECB May Frontload 2018 Bank Stress Tests With View To Greece – Draghi (R.)

The ECB may ‘frontload’ its bank stress test next year, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, when asked if supervisors plan any early checks on the health of Greek lenders. The IMF has been pushing for a fresh asset quality review at Greek banks, possibly as part of an bailout review that is slated to start soon. The ECB has rejected the call, saying that the next check is the regular 2018 stress test, but Draghi’s words suggest that ECB may be somewhat flexible with its timeline. “The SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism) will take its decision with full independence,” Draghi told members of the European Parliament. “And what the SSM plans to do next year is to have a stress test, possibly frontloading the stress test, and basically the SSM sent a letter to the IMF concerning exactly this expected line of action,” Draghi said.

Maybe Macron can do some good too.

• French Government Declares War On Pesticides (AFP)

France is planning to cut back on use of all pesticides, the government said Monday, though it rowed back on an announcement of an outright ban on controversial chemical glyphosate. Government spokesman Christophe Castaner had said earlier Monday that France – Europe’s biggest food producer a- intended to phase out glyphosate completely by 2022 over fears that it may cause cancer. But he later reversed his comments, saying that by the end of President Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term “the government is committed to seeing significant progress on all pesticides”. Glyphosate is the active ingredient in one of the world’s most widely used weedkillers, Roundup, produced by the US agro-chemicals giant Monsanto. The European Commission has proposed extending the licence for the use of the chemical for 10 years, which France has said it will vote against and try to block.

France’s biggest farming union, the FNSEA, said Monday that it was “out of the question” for the country to go it alone, worrying that a French ban could put them at a disadvantage against European competitors. “A sudden ban, no — a path for reducing it and finding solutions, if the solutions are good economically and technically, we can see it happening,” said FNSEA chief Christiane Lambert. Europe limited use of glyphosate last year pending further research. The EU’s chemical agency said glyphosate should be not be classified as cancer-causing. But this is challenged by scientists and environmentalists who point to a finding by the International Agency for Research on Cancer that glyphosate is “probably carcinogenic”. Some 1.3 million people have signed an online petition calling for a ban on the chemical.

Can mankind rid the earth of its presence? Stay tuned.

• Our Food Crops Face Mass Extinction Too (G.)

A “sixth mass extinction” is already under way, scientists are now warning us. Species such as the Bengal tiger and blue whale are vanishing at an alarming rate, and mournful eulogies are being written on how those born in 20 years’ time may never see an African elephant. But who is writing the eulogy for our food? Huge proportions of the plant and animal species that form the foundation of our food supply -known as agrobiodiversity- are just as endangered and are getting almost no attention. Take some consumer favourites: chips, chocolate and coffee. Up to 22% of wild potato species are predicted to become extinct by 2055 due to climate change. In Ghana and Ivory Coast, where the raw ingredient for 70% of our chocolate is grown, cacao trees will not be able to survive as temperatures rise by two degrees over the next 40 years. Coffee yields in Tanzania have dropped 50% since 1960.

These crops are the tip of the iceberg. Across the world, 940 cultivated species are threatened. Agrobiodiversity is a precious resource that we are losing, and yet it can also help solve or mitigate many challenges the world is facing. It has a critical yet overlooked role in helping us improve global nutrition, reduce our impact on the environment and adapt to climate change. According to the World Health Organisation, poor diet is the biggest cause of early death and disability. Globally, 2 billion people are undernourished, while 2 billion are obese and at risk of contracting diabetes, heart disease and cancer. Focusing on large-scale intensive production of starchy crops for calories rather than nutritious diets has led to serious levels of obesity around the world, from the US to Kenya. Our agrobiodiversity base can be a source of affordable, nutritious food – provided we don’t let it disappear.

[..] About 33% of the world’s farmland is estimated to be degraded, lacking the nutrients essential for growing crops. Agrobiodiversity once again has a solution. Planting cold-tolerant legumes and forages throughout winter has helped farmers in France naturally reduce weed infestation as well as increasing soil’s nutrient content and capacity to hold water. Natural remedies such as this can enhance the sustainability of farms worldwide, reducing the sector’s impact on the environment.

“Three-quarters of the world’s food today comes from just 12 crops and five animal species”. In India, there used to be 100,000 varieties of rice. Today, there’s a big struggle going on to preserve a few dozen. There are many different banana species, but we all eat just one, the Cavendish. Which is under severe threat from a global fungus and could be gone in 5-10 years.

• Sixth Mass Extinction Of Wildlife Also Threatens Global Food Supplies (G.)

The sixth mass extinction of global wildlife already under way is seriously threatening the world’s food supplies, according to experts. “Huge proportions of the plant and animal species that form the foundation of our food supply are just as endangered [as wildlife] and are getting almost no attention,” said Ann Tutwiler, director general of Bioversity International, a research group that published a new report on Tuesday. “If there is one thing we cannot allow to become extinct, it is the species that provide the food that sustains each and every one of the seven billion people on our planet,” she said in an article for the Guardian. “This ‘agrobiodiversity’ is a precious resource that we are losing, and yet it can also help solve or mitigate many challenges the world is facing. It has a critical yet overlooked role in helping us improve global nutrition, reduce our impact on the environment and adapt to climate change.”

Three-quarters of the world’s food today comes from just 12 crops and five animal species and this leaves supplies very vulnerable to disease and pests that can sweep through large areas of monocultures, as happened in the Irish potato famine when a million people starved to death. Reliance on only a few strains also means the world’s fast changing climate will cut yields just as the demand from a growing global population is rising. There are tens of thousands of wild or rarely cultivated species that could provide a richly varied range of nutritious foods, resistant to disease and tolerant of the changing environment. But the destruction of wild areas, pollution and overhunting has started a mass extinction of species on Earth.

The focus to date has been on wild animals – half of which have been lost in the last 40 years – but the new report reveals that the same pressures are endangering humanity’s food supply, with at least 1,000 cultivated species already endangered. Tutwiler said saving the world’s agrobiodiversity is also vital in tackling the number one cause of human death and disability in the world – poor diet, which includes both too much and too little food. “We are not winning the battle against obesity and undernutrition,” she said. “Poor diets are in large part because we have very unified diets based on a narrow set of commodities and we are not consuming enough diversity.”

Germany’s Bad Numbers Are Great News For All Of Us

Oct 072014

October 7, 2014 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 8:52 pm Finance Tagged with: AfD, Draghi, ECB, eurozone, Germany, Greece, Italy, Merkel, Spain 9 Responses »

DPC St. Mary’s Canal parade, Sault Sainte Marie, MI 1905

Something’s happening in Europe that I would like to cheer and encourage at the top of my lungs. While only yesterday, most European leaders, the ECB and the IMF were busy chiding Germany for not lowering taxes or increasing government investment in its economy, today’s release of German economic data should either shut them up or drastically change their tune.

Then again, they are to a (wo)man too self-obsessed and -important to keep their traps closed, and they know only the one tune. That should lead to some serious bitterness, of which I’m also full-heartedly in favor. For everyone’s good but that of the self-absorbed politicians, the eurozone should be demolished, and entirely new, far more modest treaties between the nations negotiated.

If we can agree the single currency, and the legal settings it is caught in, have already done great damage to the over 50% of young people in Spain and Greece who may never find jobs at all, to the Italians and Irish who were keelhauled in the name of the greater good, and and and, and to all the millions in all the other eurozone member nations, if we can agree on that, things are going to get much worse if the euro project is not abandoned as soon as possible.

The good thing about Germany’s bad, make that awful, numbers is that they will raise the voices of euroskeptics across the country. If there is to be a change in view or politics from Angela Merkel and her people, it’s not going to be what the rest of Europe wants, a softer stance on Mario Draghi’s ABS junk paper purchases. Quite the opposite: Germans will increase their calls for Deutschland first, and Merkel can no longer ignore them.

Berlin will have to turn to protectionist policies, sort of like the antithesis the the entire European project that has seen so much support from these very Germans. Merkel cannot accept looser financial policies in Brussels, which carry the risk – bordering on certainty – that her taxpayers will be on the hook for losses incurred in the ECB’s last ditch attempts to save itself and the currency. Merkel’s – existing and potential – voters will not accept it.

That de facto means she must turn her back on Europe. It will not be advertized that way, at least not in the beginning, but it is what it all comes down to. Whether you agree or not that Germany’s own points of view and actions have contributed to the misery large parts of Europe are in, the fact remains they’re miserable and slip sliding into worse. Something needs to be done, but no-one can agree on what.

Draghi’s highly expensive and highly disputed buy buy buy plans can’t actually solve any problems, neither the ones countries already had nor those the euro straightjacket added. What the plans may do is buy a bit of time. Time that will be used to further tighten the euro noose around everyone’s neck.

Central banks can’t solve problems, but they sure can make them worse. This may sound strange when you look at what many see as a recovery in the US, but just wait a few more years and then look at what $10+ trillion has bought Americans, or $25 trillion has done for China.

In the end, it’s all just more debt piled on top of debt, and nothing but a huge blind spot in the range of vision of economists, edged on by those who seek to profit from a nation’s taxpayers being dragged down further towards servitude. That you could boost a broke economy be making it more broke, or even risk doing so, is insanity squared, but it’s also what every economics textbook says should be done.

In a few days, another fake Economic Nobel (Fauxbel) will be awarded to another clown or comic troupe with some utterly useless theory, their field lauded as a science without ever obeying even the most basic scientific principles. And some day people will ask: ‘what were they thinking?’, but they’ll have to ask their questions from cardboard shovels and corrugated shanty towns.

The fast rising right-of-Merkel Alternative for Deutschland party will grab onto today’s bad bad data (25% plunge in new car sales, 8.8% less capital goods (machinery etc.) produced, factory orders down 5.7%, overall industrial production down 4% MoM) to demand protection for Germans, and less, not more, Berlin involvement in the EU and eurozone.

At the – well, ok, arguably – worst point in euro history, with all other ‘solutions’ failed and debt levels higher than ever, Mario Draghi wants to raise those levels even more. Merkel doesn’t have the political room to allow him to, because she doesn’t have the economic room anymore. As soon as she announces some, any, cut in domestic services, the AfD and other voices will clamor: cut the Greeks first.

France is gasping for breath, Italy is on life support, Greece, Cyprus and Spain are in the emergency room, and Europe’s German engine has just quit. A 500+ million ‘union’ with no steering wheel and no engine is on its way to the brink of a deep cliff. Someone’s going to jump ship, no question about it. The Germans themselves might be the first.

Nobody in Europe has anything to lose from the demise of the eurozone, at least nothing that they wouldn’t lose anyway, but every single European save for a cabal of power brokers and narcissists has a ton and a half of happiness and self-fulfillment and independence to lose from the continuation of the failed project. Luckily for them, the German data promise to bring the merciful end that much closer.

What’s wrong with the EU is the same as what’s wrong with NATO, the IMF, the World Bank. They are institutions that start with noble ideals, but soon start to gobble up ever more power, and with no-one to hold them to account. That kind of structure in turn attracts a certain kind of people, the ones who don’t like to be held to account.

And though I’m a little hesitant to include the US in all this, since it”s so much older, I certainly wouldn’t discard Washington offhand as a place where the wrong kind of people have gathered far too much power.