Forum Replies Created
Just for a contrast, vax situation from bit different angle, … “investment” angle [primarily quotes from latest Morningstar report]:
“ Moderna Dominates COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturers,
at Least for Now
The development of the COVID-19 vaccine market will depend on several tough-to- predict outcomes, like the duration of vaccine protection, how variants evolve, and how competitors progress.
Despite the early lead that Moderna MRNA and BioNTech BNTX hold, and their clear dominance in the pandemic market for COVID-19 vaccine sales, we’re not yet convinced that COVID-19 will require widespread annual booster shots, and if so, whether these companies will remain dominant in the long run.
Still, we do expect these mRNA companies to dominate the global COVID-19 vaccine market in the short term, particularly as third-dose boosters become available late in 2021. We expect 41% of delivered doses in 2022 to be based on mRNA technology.”
“Near-Term mRNA Vaccine Demand Boosted by Vector Vaccine Headwinds
Adenoviral vector vaccines from Johnson & Johnson JNJ and AstraZeneca AZN have seen slower launches due to manufacturing issues and, more recently, potential safety issues.
The manufacturing issues have cut AstraZeneca’s expected output in the first half of 2021 from its original goal of 300 million doses in the European Union to only 100 million. Johnson & Johnson has lost as many as 15 million doses due to a manufacturing mix-up at a key facility in Baltimore.
And both vaccines have been linked to rare side effects. Reports of a rare combination of low platelets and dangerous blood clots in recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine have led several European countries to limit its use to older adults; Denmark has opted to stop using it entirely. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is back on the U.S. market following a temporary pause while the Food and Drug Administration investigated six blood clots (out of more than 6.8 million administered doses).
We continue to think the risks of COVID-19 far outweigh the potential safety risks of these vaccines, particularly in regions that do not have access to mRNA vaccines and if age restrictions are considered. That said, these fears are already boosting demand for mRNA vaccines in Europe.”
“COVID-19 Vaccinations Likely to Be Annual, at Least for Some Groups
So far, data indicates that vaccines last at least six months, as Pfizer PFE/BioNTech and Moderna have disclosed relatively stable six-month efficacy levels. However, we assume continuing declines will mean that COVID-19 vaccines will be needed annually for certain populations, beyond the pandemic.
In our base case, we assume that higher-risk populations (infants and the elderly) require annual vaccination and that prices rise slightly due to demand for higher- efficacy vaccines (although we assume some new competition from other mRNA and antigen vaccine players). Our base-case assumptions create a roughly $8 billion annual market, of which we assume Moderna could see $2 billion annually. (We provide our detailed analysis of Moderna in this article.)
In our bull case, we assume broad recommendations for annual vaccination at a price roughly double that of pandemic prices. This assumes limited competition, continued high mutation rates, and waning immunity from pandemic shots (vaccines appear to remain effective for at least six months, but additional mutations could erode this protection further). Our Moderna bull-case assumptions imply market demand for 1.6 billion vaccine doses annually; at a premium price around $16 a dose globally ($30 in the United States), this would create a $26 billion annual market.
In our bear case, we assume that only infants require annual shots, due to slowing mutation rates and longer-lived protection from pandemic shots, which levels the playing field for older technologies that take longer to modify and therefore prevents any price increases from pandemic levels. Our Moderna bear-case assumptions imply market demand for 250 million doses annually; at roughly pandemic-level pricing ($8 globally, $15 in the U.S.), this would create a $2 billion annual market.”
… so you all know.
@ Germ [O/T – but it is war. – April 21, 2020 at 8:12 p.m.]
FWIW, … local commentariat on the story in Lytton, B.C.
IH says COVID-19 vaccines safe despite claims of Lytton physician
Doctor makes unsubstantiated claims about serious side effects of Moderna vaccine
BARBARA RODENApr. 19, 2021 5:30 p.m.LOCAL NEWS
Wow! John Michael Greer, … starts his latest harangue with:
May I be frank? True, … continues with:
… This is far and away the most malefic mundane chart I have ever studied. Six of the nine planets are clustered in two tight stelliums that are square to each other, and the other three planets are basically out of the picture.
I have no idea if Donald Trump or anyone in his inner circle pays the least attention to astrology, but if so, I hope he has the great good sense to button up his ego, let his legal challenges slide, prepare to depart the White House with whatever theatrics he considers appropriate, and thank his lucky stars that he can sit out the next four years and get ready for 2024. Whoever is inaugurated this coming January will be walking face first into a buzzsaw. …
… rest here [but make sure you also go through comments section]
OK, … perhaps significant?
Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us
Survey of interest, perhaps?
Last Friday, “The Virus” survey – that nobody else has had the courage (or stupidity) to present – was fronted to regular posters on one particular website [ https://www.greaterfool.ca/ ]. Today, the results were presented. Six-thousand-seventy-three unique responses, … one-hundred-thirty-nine reported death in the family or relations [question number 3 ].
Link to the survey’s results: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/05/17/dont-be-so-sure-2/
F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.
Back to work processing chicken carcasses, Guys and Gals! – John Day
… and the cattle, too! In High River, Alberta. Oh, … about 4500 heads per day. Yes. Something about all those meet plants…
Union launches legal action to block reopening of Cargill meat processing plant in High River
CALGARY — The union representing workers at the Cargill meat processing plant in High River, Alta. is taking legal action to stop it from being reopened on Monday.
Nearly half of the 2,000 employees at the plant have tested positive for COVID-19, forcing the operation to be idled just under two weeks ago.
On Wednesday, the company announced plans to resume operations on May 4.
Background on High River Cargill Plant – dated article
What led to Alberta’s biggest outbreak? Cargill meat plant’s hundreds of COVID-19 cases
D Benton Smith – Yes to #1, and apparently not to #2 (but it sure does have folks talking it over, don’t it ? . . . which is a good thing.)
Agreed fully. Mind you, … #2 reminds me of lyrics content of Camp Grenada: … poison ivy, alligators, sissies, reading sessions, Malaria, Jeffery Hardy, man-eating bears in the woods, … RAIN, HAIL! “Take me home, oh Muddah, Faddah / Take me home, I hate Grenada” plead, …
… than it stopped raining, stopped hailing!
GRRR…, … link:
Sandel poses a question in The New York Timely:
Are We All in This Together?
… again, a snip:
In a pandemic, this question arises most urgently as a question about health care: Should medical care be accessible to all, regardless of their ability to pay? The Trump administration decided that the federal government would pay for coronavirus treatment for the uninsured. Whether it will be possible to reconcile the moral logic of this policy with the notion that health coverage in ordinary times should be left to the market remains to be seen.
… link – I trust it opens free, … it did for me:
The pandemic has helpfully scrambled how we value everyone’s economic and social roles.
Historical take on plagues: by Escobar. Snip, first:
With pervasive social distancing in place, the new border is each and everyone’s skin. Migrants and refugees were previously considered viruses, and only merited confinement and immobilization. But now these policies apply to whole populations. Detention centers – perpetual waiting rooms that abolish human rights and citizenship – are now detention centers inside one’s own home.
The city in a time of plague
History teaches us that epidemics are more like revelatory moments than social transformers
Shish! Proliferation of doctors – with an opinion and an advise – continues unabated. Here is one, Canadian, … a “spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE”. Yes. This doctor, Dr. Steve, offers a handy guide to spotting the pandemic scamsters:
Please Advise: Who’s Least Likely to Lie to Me about COVID-19?
… read and take note.
We may, … just perhaps, end up as a proverbial burnt toast! So goes a jest in this oped, …
… The belief that it is worth sacrificing anything and everything at the altar of flattening the coronavirus curve is foolish. But many leaders are behaving that way. We need a clearer picture of all that is at stake before those at the helm burn down the village to save it. […]
… Many difficult decisions lie ahead. We stand the best chance of making good decisions if we consider everything at stake, and not only the singular goal of reducing Covid-19 deaths.
Lockdowns Won’t Stop the Spread
Stopping the coronavirus and protecting the economy are one and the same, but it is too late to do either.
FWIW, … yet another interview with a microbiologist with 25 years of experience researching bacterial infections:
The science of Covid-19
… like I said, FWIW.
Dept: LIFESTYLES – We’re all in it together, … all alone!
Local woman claims daily routine of panic, anguish, and despair really helps to centre her
<i>“I pour myself some coffee, maybe eat something, then I schedule about 5 hours to scroll on Twitter, … This is panic time, so I need to funnel as much news into my head until I am numb to any more incoming and horrific information.”</i>
OK, … please forgive me if following was posted here before, … most scary stuff:
How to treat Coronavirus infection COVID-19
Interview with the member of the Russian Academy of Science Alexander Chuchalin
Conversation with a doctor, on Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada:
All about COVID-19 with Physician and Writer Kevin Patterson
Note: bit dated, recorded last Friday evening.
<I>They all end up serving only their most powerful members, at the cost of the smaller and less powerful.</I>
A very good example of this relationship here:
<b>F-35 procurement troubles may hurt military’s relations with allies</b>
Internal document says tough procurement rules affect hundreds of foreign deals signed by the Forces
U.S./NATO countries are providing Kiev with military equipment and gear. This is right in the open – an acknowledged fact. What’s unacknowledged is, … is that the military equipment headed for Ukraine is strictly of Soviet origin – of Soviet specifications.
Back in last summer it was openly announced that U.S./NATO had arranged for regular shipments of military equipment from Eastern Europe – ex. Warsaw Pact nations, to Ukraine. Officially, all equipment being shipped is the equipment that has been written off – surplused, … since it was replaced with U.S./NATO specifications equipment.
So, there. That is why you see a lot of destroyed equipment, by Nonorussians, … that is of Russian origin.
Anyway, … Ukraine is not going to get any – none – of U.S./NATO military equipment until it is firmly a U.S./NATO member! Trust me on that, …December 21, 2012 at 10:26 pm in reply to: Obama Has Once Last Chance To Become A Great President #6650
Hoping that this ‘Hopee ‘n Changee’ fellow will act … finally?
Desperate. Brutal. Very last emotional appeal to action. Pathetic, …
This latest article from TAE misses one crucial point: that Obama is (… always was!) a “plant provocateur”, an agent fronted by the elites to act – undercover – on behalf elites! Period.
Germane, trust me! First, a snip from the rant:
“What these sheisters do is convince you that everything you thought you knew to be true can be substituted with their own MYTHS conjured up in corporate board rooms and hotel suites,”
Most perfect example of, most timely:
The New North American Energy Paradigm: Reshaping the Future
Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, Exxon Mobil Corporation
A word from an ultimate deceptor:
“There is no means of human communication which may not also be a means of deliberate propaganda, because propaganda is simply the establishing of reciprocal understanding between an individual and a group.”
– Edward Bernays, Propaganda, p. 161.
Following, just perhaps, you folks will find of interest – germane:
Best title for this gem is, … well, “Idiots on Parade”