Figmund Sreud
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… and a written word from Alastair Crooke:
Puzzling, … few days ago – out of the blue – Canada’s CBC aired following vid on mainstream tv feed, … all about Russia’s new hypersonic missile:
Why? What prompted their propaganda department to air it now? Scare tactic of sort?
Interesting take:
Over the last four quarters, Tesla generated total revenue and earnings of $96 billion and $15 billion, respectively. Toyota’s revenue and earnings are roughly three times larger at $299 billion and $44 billion. Yet Tesla’s market cap is more than double that of Toyota.
Tesla shares have soared since going public, while Toyota and other major auto manufacturers’ shares have meandered along. Since going public in 2010 at $1.59 (split adjusted), Tesla shares are up nearly 12,000%. That figure is more stunning, considering it’s down 50% since late 2021.
Is Toyota The Next Tesla?
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-toyota-the-next-tesla/What do you know, … it’s harder to get insurance. It’s is a game changer:
Last year saw a record-breaking number of natural catastrophes causing at least $1bn in insurance losses: 37 separate events, according to data from insurance broker Aon. That included 25 so-called severe convective storms, of which 21 were in the US. It is the growing weight of events such as storms and wildfires — and the broadening of the areas that are exposed to them — that is raising anxiety in the sector, and changing the way risk is viewed.
Auto insurance premiums rose 20.6% year over year, … tenant and household insurance rose 6% annualized over just the last three months.
https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Insurance-claims-extreme-weather.png
The uninsurable world: what climate change is costing homeowners [ … this usually is behind a paywall]
https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0bF.S
Making an alternate type of minced meat* out of Tucker Carlson – Ben Norton
F.S.
*) Tucker’s warmongering against China
“We have to vaccinate some bankers!” – Dr. Dave Collum ( at ~ 1:24:08)
Anyway, … answers to just about anything and everything from Collum!
F.S.
Linh Dinh’s short story on Kafka’s “Jackals and Arabs” in this new booklet of his – read free at:
… fwiw,
F.S.
Swiftonomics
Special Report: Taylor Swift’s Impact on the Economy in Los Angeles County
Think about it: … those not fortunate enough to get tickets directly must pay an average resale price of U$1,611 per SeatGeek. U$1,611 just gets you in the doors!
… more: Call it a gold rush: Taylor Swift is adding billions to the U.S. economy.
The Economy (Taylor’s Version)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/13/taylor-swift-eras-tour-money-jobs/F.S.
Yield curve reinventing! Recession is officially on, …
Re-steepening of the yield curve signals rising unemployment and deepening bear markets
…fwiw,
F.S.
Alastair Crooke
… The latest Peace Index survey reflects the pervasive gloom: 94% percent of Jews think Israel has used the right amount of firepower in Gaza (or “not enough” (43%)). Three-quarters of all Israelis think the number of Palestinians harmed since October is justified to achieve its aims; a full two-thirds of Jewish respondents say numbers of casualties are definitely justified (only 21% say “somewhat” justified).
Linh Dinh, originally of “Postcards from the End of [the] America[n Empire]” fame: … his latest:
Conversation with Dzuy in DC Homestay:
Of Vietnam, Dzuy claimed it’s one of the poorest countries on earth, “It’s ranked 176 out of 200!”
“That’s obviously not true! Just in this region, we’re doing better than Laos and Cambodia, and the Philippines, too, I think. If not, we’re close.”
“We’re not doing better than Laos.”
“I just spent six months over there! They’re poorer.”
“Then why do Vietnamese go there to work?”
“So what?! Chinese are in Africa. That doesn’t mean China is poorer than Africa.”
Dzuy also dismissed my observation that most of Sub-Saharan Africa is poorer than Vietnam. Hell, even China’s rise is illusory.
“They steal technology, make junk no one wants to buy and erect buildings that crumble!”
“In Laos, China just finished a rail system that’s superior to anything in the USA.”
“Impossible!”
“In Indonesia, Chinese built trains are twice as fast those in the USA.”
Dzuy shot me a look of disgust tinted with anger, “Nonsense!”
“So China has made no progress?”
“It’s an illusion. It will disappear. People who go there are shocked by how poor they are. China is like this puffed up pastry. There’s nothing inside!”
“They have enough money to flood over here as tourists.”
“So what? Even some Vietnamese go places.”
“So who’s doing well?”
“America!”
“What about Russia?”
The word alone made Dzuy glower, “Russia is so backward, uses 1980’s technology and can’t even beat Ukraine!”
“So they’re losing that war?”
“Of course!”
To Dzuy, Russia is just a thinly disguised Soviet Union,headed by a KGB goon, Putin. Together with China, it will collapse soon enough. The future is in the West.
“Russia is so far behind! They’re Vikings! Pirates!”
I didn’t bother to correct him. As for Americans living in tents and under bridges, they’re just drug addicts or lazy.
“The US is humane and tries to help everyone, but some people just can’t be helped.”
“Did the USA help Afghanistan, or did it make money then run?”
To this, Dzuy could only mumble, “That situation was complicated. Afghanistan was part of the Silk Road…”
“Didn’t the USA abandon South Vietnam?”
“No, that was our fault.”
“Didn’t it kill Ngo Dinh Diem? They propped him up, then killed him.”
“What are you basing that on?”
“It’s a fact. During the war against the French, Diem lived in New Jersey. As for the coup, our generals wouldn’t have dared to stage it without American approval. They did pay for everything.”
Kissinger himself said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
… continues at:
“Russia is So Backward, Uses 1980’s Technology and Can’t Even Beat Ukraine!”
https://linhdinh.substack.com/p/russia-is-so-backward-uses-1980s?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2@ Dr. Day – Please Pause Genocide
———————————————-Yes, most appropriate headline vis-a-vis the Hague-based court order to Israel. Blasphemy!
Me, when I read the final court’s decision, all I could think of is a headline along the lines alike, ‘when raping (crime) withdraw momentarily when ejeculating!
F.S.
Helmer:
The Foreign Ministry and Security Council meetings confirm there is now a new definition of “terrorism” in Russian warfighting strategy, in which there is both public and secret support for Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups in Lebanon and Iraq fighting for national liberation against Israel and the US.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY TIES RED SEA BLOCKADE TO GAZA BLOCKADE, BACKS HOUTHIS IN MOSCOW MEETING
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY TIES RED SEA BLOCKADE TO GAZA BLOCKADE, BACKS HOUTHIS IN MOSCOW MEETING
Tucker Carlson in Cowtown!*
F.S.
*) Udderly Art Pasture
Calgary, AlbertaAnd so, it’s all about Trump, … yet another round, once again!
… from my in-Box this a.m. (via TD WebBroker)
David Rosenberg: What another Trump term could mean for markets
Former President Donald Trump may well have created a chaotic environment within his administration, but there is no doubt that his four years in the White House from 2016 to 2020 juiced up investors’ “animal spirits.”
Who knows what his economic vision is going to be, assuming he emerges victorious this coming November, but what we do know is that:
• He measures his success by the direction of the equity market.
• He will use executive order to deregulate.
• He doesn’t give a hoot about fiscal deficits and is sure to boost spending and either extend his prior tax cuts or reduce them even further, especially for businesses (Trump added US$8 trillion to the national debt in his four years… he is a classic fiscal expansionist).
• He had no problem pursuing a soft U.S. dollar policy.
• Tariffs and other trade protectionist initiatives are sure to rear their heads (little difference from Joe Biden here).
• He loves inflation and low interest rates (he is, after all, a real estate guy).
• He has made no bones about getting rid of Jay Powell at the Federal Reserve.
No wonder gold did so well in his previous tenure, especially in his last two years when the yellow metal soared nearly 50%. True to form, in his first two years in office, the total return in the S&P 500 was 23%, even with a ton more volatility. The combination of the tax cuts and the Fed’s tightening program caused a bear flattener in the Treasury market – when short-term interest rates rise faster than long-term interest rates – and moderately negative returns. But the risk-on trade was underscored by the vast outperformance of corporate bonds.
The dollar was weak, and gold held its value.
And with all the drilling, oil prices remained broadly stable.
What’s interesting is that in Trump’s last two years where the GOP lost its grip on Congress, the stock market did even better. The S&P 500 soared 50% — gridlock is obviously good. But even bond yields fell sharply, and Treasury returns were spectacular — the long bong rose by nearly 40%. Not even his tax cuts, immigration policies, tariffs, and a 3.5% unemployment rate could muster up much, if any, inflation. And the Fed spent 2019 cutting rates. But one common theme was U.S. dollar depreciation and strength in both gold and oil.
Nothing is saying that if Trump wins the election, we will necessarily see a repeat. But what we do know is that he is a big fan of debt and loves a weaker dollar.
The fact that he grades his performance based on the S&P 500 means we probably will need to shift to a more constructive stance on the market if he wins and add some gold to the portfolio while screening all the holdings against U.S. dollar weakness.David Rosenberg is founder of Rosenberg Research, and author of the daily economic report, Breakfast with Dave.
F.S.
China’s position on Gaza War:
“… the China-Israel bilateral trade is less than US$25 billion. Until 2018, China was a major investor in Israel, especially in the tech sector. However, due to the mounting US pressure over Chinese investments coming with potential “security risks”, China’s investments have cooled down. These investment and trade trends are shaping China’s options to navigate the present crisis. On the one hand, these trends explain a) why China has taken a pro-Arab position, and b) why China fears a wider war in the region. Not only, a wider war could impact billions of dollars but also put almost a million Chinese nationals based in the region working on numerous projects in serious jeopardy. Evacuating these many people will be a nightmare.
Beijing learnt a crucial lesson when NATO invaded Libya in 2011. When NATO invaded Libya in 2011, it cost China a lot. According to figures released by the Chinese government itself, 75 Chinese companies, including 13 state-owned companies, were involved in Libya in about 50 joint projects. More than 35,000 Chinese workers were there.
https://journal-neo.su/2024/01/23/understanding-chinas-navigation-of-the-gaza-war/
F.S.
Yet another review of book by Emmanuel Todd, La Défaite de l’Occident:
“… the French author reminds us of a number of other important factors: that despite the collapse of the USSR, the US itself has been in crisis since the 1980s, where the disappearance of Protestantism has led America from neoliberalism to nihilism. In Britain, from financialisation to loss of a sense of humour. The nullification of religion has led the European Union to suicide, although according to Todd – Germany is due for a revival. And that in 2016-2022 – Western nihilism merged with the nihilism of modern Ukraine, born from the decay of the Soviet system. Together – NATO and Ukraine face a stabilised Russia, a great power again, now conservative, reassuring to the rest of the world – which is unwilling to follow the West in its adventure.
https://journal-neo.su/2024/01/21/the-fall-of-the-west/
F.S.
You, Go! Orange One, …
Donald Trump is projected to win New Hampshire primary, according to The Associated Press,
F.S.
Interesting snap-shot into Canadian real estate, … considering an ongoing fiasco!
An active real estate agent looks into the members of Canadian parliament and finds over half members own multiple properties. Subsequently asks questions: During a housing crisis is this a moral issue?, Should MP’s be using their government salary to purchase rental properties and remove housing supply from we the citizens?
As a bonus, some other juicy stuff in this vid, especially about Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and non-financial Finance Minister, …plus aMember of Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland, Christia Freeland. Story on her starts at ~ 9:15 mark. Have-a-peek!
F.S.
Nice cartoon, … [ nothing to fret about, …really!]
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=~CAN
Loadings of Russian and Kazakhstan oil onto marine tankers at Russia’s second-largest export terminal on the Baltic Sea, Ust-Luga, have resumed at around midday on Monday after coming to a standstill in the early morning hours on Sunday when captains ordered vessels to be pulled back to sea due to security concerns, marine traffic data suggests.
At least two drones have been reported in Russian news outlets as being spotted over the gas condensate facilities operated by Russian producer Novatek before explosions took place, triggering widespread fire. The gas condensate plant is located next to the oil export terminal.[…]
Canada’s leaders will learn that Wargames are expensive and are dangerous. – zerosum
—————————————-Yes, … but on this Red Sea mission, Canada only sent out, so far, the old bed pan, “HMCS Calgary” (FFH 335) – by now grossly outdated “patrol frigate” that by design had an original expiry date 2012, … while being commissioned in 1995. So no great loss if it is sent to the bottom of Red Sea to serve as an artificial reef!
Btw, currently envisaged replacement programme is for first vessel of the similar type probably not entering service until the early/mid 2030s.
“If you get rid of the empire, this world could be taken over by tyrants., … imagine that!
Welcome to the Empire
I see oil hasn’t moved out of the seventies since the Red Sea troubles? Maybe things aren’t exactly as advertised? – Red
————————————-In the financial circles, all I hear is it’s same old, same old Israel/Palestinian fracas, it will fade out in a month or less, … just like for last seventy+ years!. Fools, …
Anyway, WTI pricing is -0.90% in last 5 days, -16.53% in last 3 months, -6.75% YTD. Unprecedented trend,I say, … and have been dabbling in oil business since about late ‘70s.
F.S.
Helmer: … amongst all other things, reports CENTCOM is saying nothing at all about the fate of the two US Navy F-18 pilots, shot down by Houthi air defence during the first raid on Friday morning and missing at sea since then. Pentagon concealment of the shoot-down — the first air battle success of its kind– has been camouflaged by a half-dozen press releases about the hospitalization and health of the Defense Secretary, General Lloyd Austin.
… all other info in:
Report from Davos into my in-Box:
A Turbulent Year May Lie Ahead—CEOs at Davos Are Optimistic, from 14 minutes ago by Dow Jones
14 minutes ago by Dow Jones
By Chip Cutter and Emily Glazer
DAVOS, Switzerland—CEOs and business leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum are feeling increasingly confident about the U.S. economy and the strength of consumer demand, despite protracted conflicts around the world, a looming U.S. election and worries about new trade disruptions.
The dueling sentiments on display this week reflect hopes of a so-called soft landing in the U.S., as inflation cools and the labor market remains strong. Many leaders also expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates this year, potentially opening up more dealmaking and spending.
“The mood is worried, but positive,” said Martine Ferland, chief executive of the consulting giant Mercer. “It feels to me a bit less threatening from an economic standpoint.”
On the sidelines of the annual gathering of more than 800 CEOs and chairs, business leaders ticked off their reasons for confidence about the economy. PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta said he is encouraged by what he described as a stabilizing job market and falling prices for some commodities. Honeywell CEO Vimal Kapur noted demand for air travel remains strong. At the mining giant BHP, meanwhile, CEO Mike Henry said the appetite for copper, iron ore and other materials remains high worldwide.
The concern is that geopolitical events could strain confidence among CEOs and make it harder for companies to run their businesses or ship their products around the world. A series of attacks in recent weeks by Houthi militants on commercial ships passing through the Red Sea showed supply chains remain vulnerable, said Paul Knopp, CEO of KPMG in the U.S.
There are also elections in more than 60 countries in 2024, impacting roughly half of the global population. Besides the U.S. in November, countries including India, Indonesia and the United Kingdom have elections planned for later this year.
Pat Gelsinger, CEO of Intel, said the uncertainties are real but the chip maker is well-positioned.
“Geopolitically, I think it’s going to be a turbulent year,” Gelsinger said. “You have lots of elections going on. We have two active wars in the world that affect supply chains in a meaningful way.”
Many CEOs say they are engaged in various forms of scenario planning around the U.S. election involving their leadership teams and boards of directors, hoping to devise strategies regardless of what happens in the coming months.
They are gaming out either another four years of the Biden administration or a second term of former President Donald Trump, who won the Iowa caucuses Monday with the largest margin in the history of the first Republican presidential nominating contest. The outcome of the election could impact government policies, including trade and infrastructure, and the appetite for companies to invest in new projects depending on interest rates.
On the sidelines in Davos, few CEOs wanted to publicly weigh in on their election predictions, though many said they had been trading notes with peers on possible election outcomes.
The collective support for Ukraine present at last year’s forum is in the rear view mirror today, as there is growing panic about the U.S. election and the state of U.S. democracy, said Ian Bremmer, political risk expert and president of the Eurasia Group.
“Europeans in particular, really want to be reassured that the U.S. is not falling apart [or] going to be absent for them,” he said.
Bremmer said worry about the U.S. extends beyond who voters choose as their next president, listing Congress, the fight over Ukraine funding, the nation’s position on NATO, trade and industrial policy as issues of concern.
Even with the geopolitical concerns, Sanjiv Bajaj, chairman of Indian financial services behemoth Bajaj Finserv, said he is feeling optimistic about the global economy as the new year kicks off.
India’s economy in particular has been growing at a robust pace and its stock market has been flying higher, drawing in investors around the globe. Prices of everything from gold to stocks have soared, giving wallets a boost.
Bankers and financial executives say the big risks, like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, aren’t priced well into markets, leaving them wary of the potential for sizable drops or dramatic swings in oil and energy prices.
“I have never seen geopolitics be such a critical, almost decisive, factor,” said JPMorgan Chase’s co-head of global investment banking Viswas Raghavan.
Expectations of a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts pushed stocks to new heights at the end of 2023. Stocks fell to start the new year but staged a comeback in recent trading days.
The S&P 500 closed Friday within 0.3% of a record high set just over two years ago. U.S. markets were closed Monday to commemorate Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Still, it’s too soon to breathe a sigh of relief, said Anne Walsh, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management. She said that though many investors and business leaders have embraced a soft landing, so-called “tail risks” have grown.
Despite the tumult in the world, a number of CEOs said they remain optimistic.
“The world crises keep stacking one on top of the other,” said Blake Moret, CEO of industrial automation company Rockwell Automation. “But, for the moment, for the economy, the underlying demand continues to be positive.”
Gunjan Banerji, Marie Beaudette, David Benoit, Kimberly S. Johnson, Kim Last, Cara Lombardo and James Mackintosh contributed to this article.
Write to Chip Cutter at [email protected] and Emily Glazer at [email protected]
Copyright 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.Link Dinh on death of Gonzalo Lira
… in part:
“It’s easy enough for me to state all this from the safety of Namibia, but Lira was in Kharkiv. Though a “fish on the chopping block,” to borrow a Vietnamese phrase, he gave us invaluable insights and observations from the war zone without self censorship. It’s this bravery that gained Lira admirers worldwide. Scott Ritter, though, shamefully suggested he was colluding with Ukrainian intelligence. To do what, Scott?
On 3/6/22, Lira correctly predicted Western sanction will hurt the West much more than Russia. On 3/23/22, Lira concluded the US was committing suicide, but let me to tweak his assessment slightly. With Jewjabs, unchecked illegal immigration, woke education, cancel culture, cowed intellectuals, Jewjewed media, crumbling infrastructure and lying, pedophilic leaders, America is being murdered with a thousand cuts by Uncle Sam’s puppeteer. This is undeniable to anyone paying the least attention, but that’s asking a lot. Here’s a clue: Sam’s increasingly naked genocidal lust mirrors Israel’s, so locked in the sickest 69, they’ll sink together.
Lira was among the few who remembered the Jewjab murdered Tiffany Dover. Sometimes, Lira was wrong, as when he thought Zelensky would soon be assassinated by the US itself. So what? Bold and blunt, Lira literally risked his life to make statements about Zelensky, Putin, Biden and NATO, etc. Among the cowed, Lira stood tall, so that will be his legacy.
Tragic News Predawn
https://linhdinh.substack.com/p/tragic-news-predawnJohn Helmer latest: Putin fence-seats!
“Not since Moses held out his hand and got the Israelites’ god to blow an easterly wind to part the Red Sea, has there been such a prodigious feat on that stretch of water. In the hours following the US and UK bombing and missile attacks on Yemen on Friday morning, the Kremlin ordered that a fence be constructed in the middle of the Red Sea on which President Vladimir Putin (lead image) has told Russian officials to sit.
KREMLIN TRIES TO SIT ON THE FENCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RED SEA
