Nassim
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gurusid,
I think this article is pretty close to my thinking on the matter:
What is the point of having countries if the locals don’t have protection from invasion by the poorer 6 billion of the world? In the USA, they are turning these invaders into “citizens”.
I daresay the UK, as usual, will try to catch up with big brother. 🙂
The trouble with a “citizen’s income” is that there seems to be nothing to stop people being multiple citizens and they have no idea who lives in the country and who is entitled to be there in the first place.
I suspect it would be a fantastic magnet for people from poorer countries.
gurusid,
The website you referred to https://johnnyvoid.wordpress.com/ makes interesting reading. Another world.
The headline of the site contains the phrase “narking off the state since 2005”. A check in the dictionary for the meaning of narking does not reveal the probable meaning. Is “sponging” the correct meaning?
If it is, it looks like things are going to become incredibly unpleasant once sterling falls by the wayside.
“Everything is measurable Ilargi.”
Not via multiple-choice questions. We were talking about education here. 🙂
One example is their impact on education in America. With their focus on measurable results, Gates and his fellow education-focused billionaires have spearheaded a data-driven revolution. The first step was to put tests at the center of education, so that the output – student learning – could be measured.
I find this statement quite objectionable. It seems to me that they think that what cannot be measured is of no value or utility. How exactly do you measure a person’s understanding of something like Machiavelli’s Prince?
I think kids should be encouraged to be often bored and adults should not try to provide “activity” of “entertainment” to kids just because they look bored. It is only when one is bored that one becomes thoughtful and creative. A kid who is constantly stimulated by an iPhone of similar is unlikely to ever come up with a new tune.
IMHO if the Beatles had access to a fraction of the entertainment modern kids get, they would never have been so creative. Am I the only one who is amazed to see all these kids listening to stuff that came out when I was a teenager? We used to laugh at our contemporaries if they played stuff that was a few months old, because fresh stuff was coming to take its place all the time.
OldEngineer,
I like to think of it as being a bit like the lake behind a dam. When this water does not go downhill through the turbines, it counts for little. The power released when it goes downhill is proportional to the volume per second multiplied by the height it drops.
Right now, the bankers are making sure that little of it goes through the turbines. One day, the water might find a path through the dam wall – and only then will we have hyperinflation.
While I have a lot more respect for Keen than for any number of other economists. I think that it should be kept in mind that his predictions for the Australian property market have been wrong – by a very large margin – over the past 5 years. He has little idea of the power of delusional thinking.
I think that just in the same way Australians (especially women) are totally fixated on housing, some others (Chinese and Indians?) are totally fixated on gold. It is a sort of disease – an infection of which I do not claim to be immune.
Right now, it is quite impossible for a young educated employed male to contemplate marrying a similar lady as the ladies want the guys to be deeply in debt as well – but to “own” property. It has to be seen to be believed. 🙂
Ya gotta admit, due to it’s density, gold does make a better door stop than paper
Some decades ago, I read that Prince Charles had a solid gold toothpaste-squeezer. Good investment, IMHO.
I did a quick search, and it seems he is using gold for all sorts of things:
Sadly, it is greedy morons like Charles III who determine the price of gold – not well-meaning but naive people like so many who post here.
Just a few weeks ago …
That is precisely the wrong attitude. Do you seriously think that all these Indians, Arabs and Chinese operate to your time-scale?
If you want to speculate please go ahead and sell-short your promises to deliver. That is a trader’s take on matters. The one thing I am fairly confident of is that one day they will not sell oil for paper promises.
Anyone who thinks that gold is irrelevant should ask themselves why people like AH and JS thought that is was so important that they killed millions to get at it. The first one by raiding occupied central banks, pulling teeth and ransoming people, and the second by working people to death in the mines.
Here is a good read:
Hitler’s Gold: The Story of the Nazi War Loot
The fact of the matter is that there is a race on to grab as much of the metal as they can lay their hands on. Doubtless, in the USA, they will try to confiscate it once more.
BTW, no one ever found the gold that the Japanese robbed from the peoples of Asia. Interestingly enough, the Japanese did not need a Marshal Plan like Europe. How they managed to rebuild their country so quickly is a bit of a mystery.
Global Sea Ice Area (1979-present)
How the “experts” are allowed to retrospectively modify data:
How NIWA added lots of warming in New Zealand – and got away with it – so far
Let’s face it, science is not a popularity contest and saying that 97% of scientist believe in whatever is not very useful – especially when their jobs are on the line.
I really don’t know what is going on. I think the credit bubble is a far more important target for our attention.
Dave,
I think you may have meant this article:
Is Shale Oil Production from Bakken Headed for a Run with “The Red Queen”?
Figure 04 shows that the specific average production (Bbls/day/well) had strong growth as from 2006 to 2008 and has since been sustained at around 140 Bbls/day/well. Start up of new wells shows an accelerating trend as from 2006. It is this accelerating start up of new wells that have resulted in growth in total production. Extraction/production of oil and gas from shale formations has its own distinct physics governed by geology and comprised of steep decline rates and challenging dynamics that define the rules to create overall growth, sustain a plateau and/or declines.
William,
Are you sure you don’t mean Ghawar?
This was the paper on thresholds for debt to gdp ratio, at some point public debt becomes unsustainable and mathematically certain default ensues. As I recall the paper calculated this to be at 80% debt to gdp ratio for an average country according to historical examples.
It is well-worth remembering that Russia’s debt in 1998 – when the system collapsed and the oligarchs bought up the wealth of the country for cents on the dollar – was only 30% of GDP. It is well over 200% for Japan right now. It is amazing how high an expert can raise a house of cards.
I was in Moscow two weeks before the collapse and I noticed that the local shops only had frozen chickens from Arkensas (Bill Clinton’s fiefdom) and potatoes from the Netherlands. I thought that was ridiculous.
I was staying in a World Bank apartment near the Kremlin and loaned by my brother. This same apartment had been the abode of Alexei Kosygin for many years previously. He was Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union for decades. The walls were lined with all the approved standard communist works covering the previous half-century – Breznev’s multi-volume biography and similar works of fiction.
20,000 years ago, sea-level was 160 metres below its current level.
In the past 300 years, sea-level has increased by 0.2 metres – 1/800th of the previous value. Big deal.
The main advantage humans have over other creatures is our adaptability. Let’s make the most of it. 🙂
Thank you very much for a really informative piece. I had never heard of Joris Luyendijk, for example. He is another Dutchman. I wonder if that is significant! 🙂
I also note that the EU seems to have passed a deal to make bank “bail-ins” the norm. I guess Cyprus was a template after all.
Banks on the verge of collapse will be forced to tap their shareholders, bondholders and biggest customers for cash before falling back on taxpayer bailouts under an agreement hammered out by European Union members.
po1,
TAE has extensively used Dorothea Lange’s pictures in the past – maybe they have run out of “good” ones:
https://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com.au/2009/10/october-30-2009-interview-with.html
https://theautomaticearth.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=15&id=1073&Itemid=96
https://theautomaticearth.com/index.php?option=com_kunena&func=view&catid=15&id=3308&Itemid=96
and many more
I think the mental brainwashing is the worst type of screwing.
Mark T,
Increase in debt by $30 per person per day seems a lot.
I did a quick check on Excel and it seems the greatest increase for the last published quarter was “domestic financial institutions short-term paper” at 15%. By contrast, the biggest important drop was “domestic financial institutions non-mortgage loans” at -6%. I don’t know what that means or signifies.
Sid,
I think your link tends to reinforce the case for having something in metals. The First World is not the whole world – luckily. 🙂
Golden Oxen,
While I heartily endorse your sentiment as regards not getting on the wrong side of compound interest – keep out of debt – I think that savings give a pretty poor return these days. I mean, the real interest rate is negative in most places. There is no way another Volcker will come along and sort it out – because the nation states would not be able to pay the interest.
I think he was driving them batty
They must have thought that he was in touch with the supernatural – some sort of Faustian Pact. 🙂
I have been keeping an eye on Armstrong’s output for some years. He was imprisoned for seven years on trumped-up charges. They claimed he had information they wanted and when he “wouldn’t tell”, they accused him of “contempt of court”. He had to plead “guilty” to something or they would never have let him out – too many egos and careers were on the line.
Goldman Sachs was heavily involved in this – they took all his software etc.
I don’t pretend to understand his theories about cycles. I think it is connected somehow to the work of Kondratiev
https://armstrongeconomics.com
I suspect Ilargi can tell you a lot more.
Do you know anything about this mysterious buying of bond business?
I am afraid not. I am very much a gold/silver bug.
south ozzie,
I am near Melbourne and also in a suburb like you – in zone 1 so not far from the CBD. I know all about isolation, but luckily there are 5 of us (wife, 2 girls and occasional adult boy). We have been here almost 4 years. We watch almost no TV – just the occasional hard disk recorded movie so that we can skip the adverts.
Last night, I went to a http://www.meetup.com on “Organic Intelligence”. I had no idea what it was all about, but I need to get out and see people. I still don’t really know what it was all about. Anyway, there were four others there. Somehow we started talking about what was going on and three of them had a really clear idea of the fragility of things and of the “business as usual” paradigm. These three were originally from Scotland, Iran and Monaco. The fourth one who had no idea what we were talking about was a born-and-bred Australian of Italian origin – he has never visited Europe. I think you can see why I didn’t learn much about “Organic Intelligence”
All I am trying to say is that there are an awful lot of people out there who are not entirely convinced of the official story. I just happened to mention internet security and it all came out.
I looked up the Adelaide meetups and there seem to be quite a few groups already. You can even start your own and see what happens.
Sid,
It depends on where you live. Horses for courses.
and
BTW, in the Australian map, the highest scale is over 6.50 KWh/m2/day whereas in the highest reading for Europe, the scale only goes up to 1.90 KWh/m2/day.
Even Melbourne – which is pretty cold right now (10C-17C) gets annually 4 times as much solar energy as London. I guess one will have to adjust to a slower pace of life during the winter – or send the stuff in overland. Germany is a pretty daft place to put these panels.
I know this is all just tongue-in-cheek, but there is no reason to send this stuff all the way to the sun. It is sufficient to “just” put it on a lower orbit than the earth – say 1% of the distance to the sun. 🙂
Yesterday evening, I went to a meeting of the Melbourne Mining Club. Short presentations were being made by three tiny mining companies that few have ever heard of. I was expecting 20-30 attendees. In fact, 350 people booked and almost all of them showed up. I was amazed – as were the organisers. All the attendees (10% women) were dressed in dark suits – I was wearing a light grey sports jacket. Around 20 of them were Chinese/Asians.
The shares of all these companies are currently being severely hammered. At the same time, Commonwealth Bank of Australia is doing splendidly well and is worth around $110 billion as is Macquarie Bank – the four big banks are worth around $20,000 dollars per inhabitant of Australia. Not bad.
Here are these 3 companies:
Altona Mining Limited – share price
World Titanium Resources – share price
Orion Gold NL – share priceIt is clear from the charts for these 3 companies – when compared to their deposits and prospects – that we are in severe deflation in the mineral resources business. The contrast with the world of delusion and finance cannot be greater IMHO.
The fact that 350 people took the trouble to attend this meeting suggests that not everyone is brainwashed by the mainstream media. These people want real returns on their savings.
Gravity,
Part of the reason – in France and much of Europe – for the huge gap between employment for the young and the middle-aged is due to it being almost impossible to sack people with permanent jobs. Older people with “permanent” jobs (“durée indéterminée” – unlimited duration) will never leave for a better job elsewhere – since even “permanent” jobs come with a trial period where the employer can change his mind without breaking any laws. The system is entirely screwed and seemingly designed to misallocate scarce labour resources.
The vast numbers of people employed by government, quasi-government and the monopolistic sectors (trains, planes, medicine, education, electricity, gas, water etc.) are subsidised by the wealth-creating sector. The parasites are far larger than the host. It is perfectly unstable.
I do not subscribe to the viewpoint that there is a fixed amount of labour needed in the economy – far from it. I do believe that if small companies (fewer than 10 employees) were allowed total exemption from these labour laws and companies with fewer than 100 people given something much less onerous, the whole dynamic would change. These companies would get all the smarter young people and one could have a real renaissance. France is basically a very rich country – not like England.
The last time I worked as an IT manager in France was almost 30 years ago. I remember well one occasion when I was looking for a secretary (the previous secretary had to leave to a secret location on the advice of the police as her ex-boyfriend had attacked her at work). I was inundated by applications from young ladies who wanted to work for me. The number of applications was astounding. I interviewed a few of the most promising. One of them – a very attractive young lady of North African origin – offered to have sex with me then and there if I would recruit her. I felt really sorry for her, but felt obliged to choose someone else.
If you check out the ethnicity of those working in the monopolitic sectors, you will find that all the senior positions are ethnically French or assimilated North-African Jews. It is quite striking. The present arrangement is obviously to the great advantage to the incumbents who run it. Just check out how many girlfriends/mistresses/wives guys like Mitterand, Chirac, Sarkozy, Hollande have had and it all becomes crystal clear. These guys never did an honest day of work in their lives – they are parasites to the nth degree. It is precisely as it was in the Soviet Union before the breakup.
Gravity,
That process – of using interns – instead of full-time employees has been around in France for decades. I am sure it is the same in some other European countries as well. It is called “travail à durée déterminée” (“fixed term employment”)
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrat_de_travail_%C3%A0_dur%C3%A9e_d%C3%A9termin%C3%A9e_en_France
Here is a Google translation:
Frankly, it has become so expensive and risky for small companies to take on anyone in France that it is quite understandable. The “rights” which employees have are totally out of line. Only very large companies (quasi-monopolies) and the government can handle it. The result is self-evident:
Dave,
In the 1960’s I spent many summers at an apartment on the roof of a building in downtown Sitges (a little outside Barcelona) which my parents rented from the owners of the 5-storied building. These people were extremely thrifty and hard-working. The ground-floor was a chicken shop of theirs – where they sold chickens from their farm which was only a few kilometres away. The husband looked after the chicken farm and his wife slaughtered the chickens, skinned and gutted them, wrapped them and sold them from the shop. Their son and daughter helped out on evenings and weekends as they went to school during the week. Their kids were around my age and I am sure they never saw the beach during the high-season. I spent every moment either at the beach or going out with a gang of 10+ French/Catalan kids aged between 16 and 20.
Judging by current property prices in that area of Spain, I am sure that this Spanish family should have ended up as multimillionaires – without expanding their business into property and so on, but simply based on the assets they had in the 1960’s and how that area developed. I suspect the kids of this couple now have grownup kids and I doubt very much if they want their own progeny to go through what they went through themselves. It must be their worst nightmare. I am sure there are a great many Spaniards in a similar situation.
… The move also extends to some accounts held by trusts.
More work for the lawyers. Great news for the City of London as they can now claim that it has all been “cleaned up.”
IMHO, the whole thing is a farce designed to increase the revenues of people like PWC
The joke here, in Australia, is that the budget has a huge hole in it and all politicians were counting on making money out of “carbon”
Carbon price cash to leave budget hole
To an inveterate cynic like me, it looks like it was just another tax that they were hoisting on their people.
Sid,
Thank you for that link. Here is the same link for 1998 and now:
https://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=28&fy=1998&sm=04&sd=23&sy=2013
I take it the dark brown/black stuff is open water.
Here is an article by Jeremy Grantham posted on ZeroHedge two days ago:
Jeremy Grantham On The Fall Of Civilizations (And Our Last Best Hope)
Grantham writes:
try being in Sydney on January 18, at 114.4°F, the hottest day in that seaside city’s history, without air conditioning!
Of course, anyone who cares to check would find out that the hottest recorded temperature at Sydney (records exist for only around 150 years) was on January 22 1923 at 116.9F (47.2C) – 90 years ago. There is another date in the 1930’s when it was hotter than in 2013.
What is the hottest temperature recorded in sydney?
Frankly, I find it a bit of a chore pointing out the truth when so many people are so terribly keen on fiction. It is a bit like pointing out slowing monetary velocity when everyone is so keen to have “inflation”
The law of first utterance is a new one to me. It seems to make sense. However, I could not find many hits for that phrase on Google. I expect there is a latin version. If you know it, please tell us
Move on to mining, which I have invested in. Todays mines dig up a tonne of material and what is considered good enough for gold is just past 1 ounce of gold per tonne. Back 100 years ago mines produce more than 10 ounces per tonne and were not really considered viable under 3. We pull more and more tonnes out to obtain much less.
william,
While I agree with your analysis, the numbers are a bit out.
Currently, in places like Ghana, it is quite viable to mine gold when it is less than 1 gram/tonne. A Troy ounce is about 31 grams. A gram of gold costs around $44 at present.
The link below is for Chinese firm doing this sort of work. They claim to work economically where only $6 of gold per ton of sand is available – 0.15 grams of gold per ton. That is pretty amazing really.
The places where ounces of gold per ton of rock were to be had have largely disappeared – some of it was in California. The recent collapse of the historic Bingham Canyon mine puts things in perspective:
This mine has been operating for over 100 years. It primarily produces copper. However, it has produced more gold than was produced by the California gold rush. The current concentration of gold is 0.3 grams/ton
By the way, they will have to move 150 million tons of material before this mine can be restarted. It will take years.
However I am sure it will feature soon in expensive military and high tech gadgets,
Yes. I can just imagine how much improved the performance of a drone would be with a battery that is:
1- Very lightweight
2- Capable of allowing the aircraft to fly for many hours – silently – and while carrying lots of electronic equipmentI am sure those who make these things would salivate at the prospect.
