May 222023
 May 22, 2023  Posted by at 2:40 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,

Nicolas Poussin A Dance to the Music of Time 1634-36



I haven’t written articles for a while, but instead focused on the Debt Rattle news overviews. My focus has always been on conveying information in the best possible way, so you guys can make up your own mind, instead of me doing it for you. And it’s been hard to counter the MSM reporting, which does exactly that -make up people’s minds-, on Ukraine, with better sources. RT has been a great help. The west ban them because “propaganda”, but it’s clear who is really propaganda. They are a solid news operation, and I can look past that supposed propaganda part.

Anyway, it has made me only work harder over the past few months. And I hope I’ve done well. The fall of Artyomovsk seems a good moment to move towards original articles again. Not that I think MSM/NATO or all the “leaders” involved will stop their practices anytime soon. But at least they’ve been clearly beaten, even if you won’t see it reported in the western media. The world has changed, and we must change with it.

Note: If my writing is a bit rusty, please forgive me.



In Bakhmut/Artyomovsk, all of NATO, all 31 member nations, were defeated by a restaurant owner and a bunch of convicts, is how I saw someone describe it. That of course caricatures the situation somewhat (Wagner is well-organized), but it’s not that far off. And that spells a serious problem for NATO. All of those 31 members may have lots of control over their media, but in the end you can’t endlessly deny being defeated.

So what will NATO do now? They will double down, and then again. And at the end of the “doubling down road” lie nuclear weapons. Not Russian nukes, because as my friend Wayne wrote the other day, their high-precision hypersonic missiles make nukes look crude and primitive, Middle Ages territory. But NATO/US never developed such weapons. They spent 10+ times as much money on weapons, still do, and -comparatively – ended up with bows and arrows.

Nuclear bombs are good only to create widespread panic and destruction. But that includes your own destruction, because of Mutually Assured Destruction protocols. Which also go back almost as far as the bow and arrow. If you fire a nuclear missile, one very much like it will land on your head a few minutes later. End of story, end of you.

US/NATO, the “collective west”, the hegemon, has lost. And has missed the moment when that occurred. Because hegemon equals hubris. Look at what they’ve all still been saying, and you notice they can’t see, and can’t acknowledge, that -and how- the world has changed. Not just this weekend, and the 9 months before, in Artyomovsk. It’s the entire story of Ukraine: it illustrates how the West “lost it”.

The US plotted a coup and moved NATO’s borders east, and Russia reacted exactly how they said they would. No nukes, no nazis, no NATO. They got the last two, and know they can expect the first too. But still the west maintains Russia’s special operation was entirely unprovoked. Look, they’re not even listening anymore. They would like to negotiate and end all this, but negotiate about what? Putting AZOV back on the borders of the Donbass, so they can kill more Russians there? Not going to happen.

It’s not only about weaponry, though that plays a major role: the hegemon can no longer make its demands based on military might. It’s been surpassed. Nor can it make demands based on the dollar’s reserve currency status, and it caused that itself. Weaponization of the currency has backfired to the extent that de-dollarization has become a process that can no longer be halted.

The moment that Saudi prince MbS turned his back on “Joe Biden” is a milestone. Because once he did that, it was obvious many would follow. In central Asia, if you are Kazachstan or Uzbekistan, why on earth would you opt to go with G7/US/NATO instead of BRICS? Why go with the power that is waning, and not the one in ascendancy? Russia is your biggest neighbor, strongly connected to China which is building its BRI network in your region, and the nearby Arab states are about to join that network. Why would you link yourself to the G7? When you know all your neighbors do not?

Then there are the voices that say the US will push for a bigger and wider war, perhaps including American troops. First, because NATO is losing, and second, because it could mean American boots on the ground, and presidents don’t lose elections in wartime. I’ve said before, I would expect them to go with Polish troops first, possibly on Polish territory too. But the Polish don’t appear all that eager anymore. And neither would any other European NATO country. German and French and Dutch troops are in no shape for war, and in the US over 70% of potential troops are grossly overweight and/or handicapped in some other way.

Ukraine had perhaps the best boots on the ground force in Europe, financed and trained since 2014 by NATO, and they lost to a caterer and a loose group of hired hands. You’re not going to win that. Your only option is long distance weapons, missiles, planes, you name it. But NATO has no advantage in that over Russia. To put it mildly.

The sole thing that’s in your favor is that Russia doesn’t seek to destroy you. They want to live in peace and trade with you. Same thing for China. NATO equals unipolar. But the world has moved towards multipolar. Ergo, NATO is obsolete. Ukraine will never reconquer its “lost” territories, and Zelensky will move to some property in Italy or Florida, never to be heard from again, unless perhaps in his obituary. The deaths of some 300,000 of his countrymen will be on his conscience.

But also on that of all the “leaders” who have sent their second-hand armory to Kiev. They are just as responsible for all those deaths. The world has changed a lot in the past few years, and ignorance is no excuse if you are a “leader”, or a “Joe Biden”. Not even if you’re “just” a voter or reader. Those deaths will be on your head when you go see St. Peter at the gate.

PS: Don’t be surprised if “Joe Biden” sends US boots on the ground anyway. No hegemon has ever given up power lightly. That part of the road is yours, US and EU voters. You may have to fill up the streets like you’ve never seen. The rest, the majority, of the world will be waiting to see if you do or not. They’re prepared for either of the two options.





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  • #135585

    Nicolas Poussin A Dance to the Music of Time 1634-36     I haven’t written articles for a while, but instead focused on the Debt Rattle news
    [See the full post at: War]


    Re. several posts in the other thread (Oroboros, yes, thanks..) my predictions for the US, purely speculative.

    I have read some screeds about a possible Civil War between the so-called middle / lowly ‘upper’ class (often loopy Dems) and the lower reaches (who tend to support Trump, MAGA, collaboration with Russia, etc.) but that won’t happen. Echoes to the last Civil war are outdated.

    Both these factions (setting aside all those inbetween sitting on the sidelines, etc.) have almost no power, no particular cards to play (arguably some grass roots ppl have guns, other story), no cohesive organisation, no clear clarion aims that might mobilise millions, that I have ever heard of.

    What will happen is fractioning at the local level – that is gang control, gang domination which looks like covert urban wafare, which will become mixed with politics and ‘elected’ officials, e.g. pro/contra abortion / whatever / other. It will be, or almost is today in some places, Pols on the Podium, and gangs in the streets. (See the militarization of the Police for ex., and the gangs who control drugs etc. in some quarters.)

    How energy / food inputs will continue to many areas is another question.

    Fractioning will occur at the Federal Level as well, as States will want to get out (local pols needing more power) but many will be reluctant to give up the mythical US-POWER on the world stage, and will fear such splits.

    So ??


    Ilargi, you are indeed the Salt of the Earth. Thanks for all you do, and most assuredly, there is a place for you in Heaven!


    Well, they got 33% of Democrats to want to place people who disagree with them in camps that help them concentrate – with a near perfect overlap with Dems who want to get involved in The Ukraine even if it means nuclear war.

    I learned a new term the other day: Anarcho-Tyranny

    This is where you selectively enforce law & order, law enforcement, the rules. Or refuse to enforce it. Then whatever parties wish to run rampant do so on people you’ve selected as not-protected. (as opposed to protected)

    We can see this applied domestically and internationally. This is why the term “The Empire Of Chaos” is used – for this Anarcho-Tyranny being applied in international affairs. Rules for me not for thee. Accuse the enemy of what you are doing etc.

    And internally, same deal. While they DID create a degenerate demographic that wants to put people who disagree in concentration camps and get involved in Ukraine even if it means nuclear war, it wasn’t the demographic they wanted.

    Why om 2020 for 100+ days were all those cops mobilized, doing all that overtime in the 50 largest US cities only to sit on their hands, not provide law enforcement – why did all those DA’s not enforce the law either? Yet the cops stood there watching at the scene. They were there to respond to the hoped-for violent backlash.

    They can get degenerates to agree to just about anything. But they can’t get decent people to be bad. They fantasize that being moral and decent is just a play-act for status, position etc but these supposed poseur insincere deplorable decent people keep mulishly NOT taking the bait.

    All the decent deplorables did after years of provocation was switch what beer they drink. The stupidest ones were convinced to go into a building, walk between velvet ropes, and walk out of their own will, having brought none of their many, many weapons. That was the best They could do. So They have to create FAKE bad people in masks and khaki. Fake women stealing bicycles (having their bike stolen) fake kids showing the “smiling face of racism” (a kid waiting for a bus being harassed by a weirdo maintaining his cool and trying to make the best of it) fake MAGA-country jerks wandering the south side of Chicago at 2am. Fake racist NASCAR mechanics. And so on. Because the demand vastly exceeds the supply.

    Putin got a lot of heat for criticizing Poland’s policy/strategy leading up to the invasion of 1939. A lot of people spun it as Putin blaming the victim.

    It couldn’t possibly be that he had studied Poland’s strategic dilemma in depth along with many similar situations and was talking shop. Never that.

    Isn’t the international situation ALSO anarcho-terrorism? Rules for me not for thee? Selective rules/chaos depending on Who We Like?

    Who ISN’T the enemy anymore? Where does your own power base even spring from anymore???

    Like Voltaire said in Candide, we must tend our gardens. Best of all possible answers, however imperfect.


    DIstance Lends Enchantment


    Over 100 years ago they conned the entire nation to force their children to attend public schools. Talk about concentration camps…

    About 100 years ago we conned ourselves, the nation, to pass a constitutional amendment banning alcohol. MIght as well have passed an amendment to ban breathing, but we did it.

    20 years ago most people used the expression War on Terror with no apparent irony.

    Three years ago the common cold grew new spikes and we were in a war on the uncommon cold, a cold so uncommon no one has ever actually seen “it” or knows for sure if they caught it or not.

    It’s not like we’re logical creatures, singly or in groups, altho I find that time alone is the most reliable means for reducing the group insanity we call human culture.

    Kinda Nuts

    A-one, two, three, four
    Two, two, three
    Cat’s foot, iron claw
    Neurosurgeons scream for more
    Paranoia’s poison door
    21st century schizoid man
    Blood rack, barbed wire
    Politicians funeral pyre
    Innocents raped with napalm fire
    21st century schizoid man
    Death seed, blind man’s greed
    Poets starving, children bleed
    Nothing he’s got, he really needs
    21st century schizoid man

    I applaud all of us for coming down here and incarnating. Not an easy gig, reality.

    Can I Go Home Yet?

    Michael Reid

    Excellent. I sent it to my dad after reading the first few paragraphs.

    Good hard working people should be able to live a decent life no matter where they are.

    The state of governance in the west sickens me

    Michael Reid

    not-protected. (as opposed to protected)

    there should be no such thing

    just corruption

    Michael Reid

    It’s not like we’re logical creatures

    emotional creatures have allowed this mess to occur

    Figmund Sreud

    Alistair Crooke:

    “European leaders have dug themselves into a deep hole. European states, by emptying what remained in their armouries of old weapons for Kiev, had grimly hoped that the coming Spring/Summer offensive would settle everything, and they would not have to deal with the problem — the Ukraine war — anymore. Wrong again: They are being invited to ‘dig-in deeper’.

    The EU is over-invested in the Ukrainian war-project


    D Benton Smith

    So the rapacious monsters who have run the West into an early grave theorized that they could “spend” the counterfeit treasure and scams of the West (and lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians) to bring down the Russian bear, and it played out the other way around. They now have less weapons, less ammunition, less canon fodder, and a money system that teeters beyond the tipping point of collapse.

    And the Russians are stronger (by considerable) than when they started.. Of course none of the above is any news to anyone here.

    But here’s something that might be news. It concerns when the Ukraine war might end, or should I say SHALL end?

    It will end at a time and place of Russia’s choosing, and I’m expecting them to choose those circumstances as wisely as they have conducted themselves regarding such matters since well before the Special Military Operation was launched.

    In other news, expect the same type of cautious and measured procedure in the other, far larger, war as well. They do not want to force or frighten the cornered mouse into fighting. That would be a costly, non productive and hugely annoying distraction for both Russia AND China (not to mention the rest of us poor meek collateral assets and resources) and so I pray that this pragmatism mitigates the inevitable collapse down to survivable levels.

    It better, because there is not much else we can do about any of it except to help those closest to the catastrophe to get through it somehow, and use that deep need as motivation to actually do so, and not just talk about it. That’s what I’m doing, and I’m finding ways to turn those rotten circumstances into actions that serve our interests. In a world of shit, start a composting and gardening business.

    V. Arnold

    In other news, expect the same type of cautious and measured procedure in the other, far larger, war as well. They do not want to force or frighten the cornered mouse into fighting. That would be a costly, non productive and hugely annoying distraction for both Russia AND China (not to mention the rest of us poor meek collateral assets and resources) and so I pray that this pragmatism mitigates the inevitable collapse down to survivable levels.

    I echo your concerns here; thank the gods Russia is a nation of rational and intelligent leaders whose experience far exceeds that of anyone in power in the west at this time…
    It is a certainty Russia will act to protect itself if there is any attempt to tear it apart (which the U.S, openly states it wants to do…)
    I wish I could say I’m confident the U.S. will see the error of it’s ways…
    When hubris and hyperbole rule; rational thinking is no where to be found…….


    Another factor in the equation is the debt ceiling. I just heard from the US that if the Feds don’t get that sorted out then their pension payments will stop as will their social security. Depending on how many people are affected this way, could lead to who knows how much social unrest.

    My observations over the years are that the absolute ceiling is pushed higher every time. This time also?

    Autonomous Unit

    ” Fake women stealing bicycles (having their bike stolen)”
    if you are referring to the NYC rent a bike, not so fast. Her lawyer
    has provide receipts on her account showing that she paid for the bike rental.

    V. Arnold

    My bad; I read your terrific post after my response to DBS.
    I couldn’t agree more with what you wrote…
    The west is firmly rooted in crazyland.
    And from my juxtaposed pov it looks even more so……..
    May the gods help us…
    Being 14,000 kilometers from that looney bin is little comfort…
    Thanks and keep it coming…

    Formerly T-Bear

    V.A. at #135614

    “When hubris, wilful ignorance, blind beliefs, empty myths and hyperbole rule; … ”

    Fixed that for you, no charge. (smiley thing)

    V. Arnold

    Fixed that for you, no charge. (smiley thing)

    Yes, actually you did; I like your re-ordering of the words and the additions, thanks… 😉


    AsIfTruth said

    Lets put a Kennedy in the WH.

    He’s a Democrat, his friends are Democrats, he is tainted and unless he disowns the Democrats and their corrupt ways, why would anyone support yet another freeloader joining the Democrat party. At least Trump had the balls to leave, Kennedy is still in the party that killed his uncle.

    John Day

    @Aspnaz: Kennedy wants to reform what he calls “my party”. If he can do that, he has done battle with the Blob abd prevailed. If not, he will be dead or sidelined.
    The contest is happening now and into the primaries, not after the primaries.

    John Day

    Posted yesterday, but pertinent again here:

    Christine sends this John Helmer article, opening with one of the comments, as will I.
    ​Posted by: FVK | May 21 2023 12:54 utc | 1
    Yesterday, in his speech congratulating Prigozhin and Wagner on their victory over the Ukies with the taking of Artemovsk, President Putin announced that he activated the “PERIMETER” system.
    The PERIMETER system is Russia’s “dead hand” automatic response system to attacks on Russia proper. It controls launch and targeting of Russia’s Nuclear Triad/Strike Force.
    When I read this, I was mystified…. Why should this victory cause activation of PERIMETER???
    Now, with Helmer’s analysis, I understand…
    Russia takes the threat of a NATO first strike/ decapitation strike…. seriously…
    This specifically means…. if NATO uses the “Exercises” as cover for a strike against Russia… Russia will launch a massive nuclear strike on NATO…
    ​There is a grave risk that in three weeks’ time US and NATO forces will attempt direct combat against Russia.
    ​ ​The operational plan is to strike from Romanian airspace in the south and the Baltic states in the north, in camouflage of the NATO exercise called “Air Defender 23”, and under cover of US F-16 fighter aircraft purportedly operated by Ukrainian pilots but fuelled, directed, and guarded by more than two hundred US and NATO aircraft, including the most advanced US air war fighter, the F-35.
    ​ ​“This [is] the largest deployment exercise since the foundation of NATO”, according to the cover story published by NATO headquarters. “



    What a great summary, Raúl.
    We’ve missed your articles, but the efforts you put into the daily news roundups is greatly appreciated. And particularly the accurate perspective you’ve given us on the war over the last months.

    @JohnDay #135635
    Thanks for giving us that perspective. It would be a great thing, not just for Americans, if RFK got further than the primaries.

    @VArnold #135614
    Thanks – great comment.


    For the most part NATO weapons have not been used in battle. On the occasions they have the designated enemy has had inferior weapons. I would have put China in this category when Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ began.

    Weapons systems can be created, bought in large numbers, and never see action before they are replaced. Because of this there seemed no point in producing ammunition for an extended conflict so when munitions are required in large quantities there are no manufacturing facilities able to comply in a timely fashion. It will take years just to supply the small war in Ukraine.

    US weapons in particular are very complex which means they often require maintenance. Up to 30% could be out of action because of this. I think I read that an F35 will need maintenance after 10 hours flying. The West was amazed when Russia deployed fighters to Syria and they flew 24/7, just refueling, rearming and changing pilots.

    Another aspect of modern warfare is the David/Goliath thing where expensive equipment can be destroyed by cheap missiles and UAVs. A multibillion dollar aircraft carrier can be destroyed by a few million dollar missiles. Fighters and tanks can be destroyed by hand-held missiles.

    Finally, smaller countries have developed advanced, and possibly superior, weapons. Iran has developed missiles with pinpoint accuracy, Turkey’s Bayraktar UAVs have proved devastating in conflicts, Russia has had a stream of new advanced weapons tested in conflict, and China is modernising its weapons systems as quickly as possible.

    NATO has shiny weapons with minimal munitions – good for threats and posturing but not good enough for conflict.

    One final thought – if Russia attacked a NATO country, Poland say, would all the other NATO countries REALLY risk nuclear annihilation by joining in the conflict? It is a question which may need to be answered soon!



    TAE and the blogsphere are communicating/aware/sharing/
    reacting to what those in power are doing.


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