Debt Rattle August 9 2026

 

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  • #246913

    Claude Monet The Pond at Montgeron 1876 • Joint Chiefs Chair Pushing For Iran War Off-Ramp (ZH) • Bessent Outlines Capital Markets Making the Strait o
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle August 9 2026]

    #246931
    Dr. D
    Participant

    So, as predicted, Tucker plan has nothing. Nothing at all. This is not a 3rd Party run, like we’re miles from that point. But Tucker’s list – they’re picking on it for being political rhetoric and buzzwords – it’s Politics, you’re supposed to do that, get real. But after the 10-List Buzzwords, THEN there is a lot of “What YOU can do for your country!” the facts, the details, the list, the action, the change.

    There is none.

    That’s BEYOND that Tucker’s list is ¾ Trump’s list already. So you like MAGA. Got it, Tuck. You can say thank you President Trump, oh President, my President. We disagree in a couple footnotes, but outstanding, good work.

    Uhhhh… So Bots have headlined all these guys, oligarchs paid for it, mostly without them fully knowing, but here’s the real base support: Near Zero. So that’s oligarch-puppet MTG, Tuck, still supported by Fox – Joe Kent, Brian Glenn.

    Now WHY can they not have details? That seems ill-planned. A: Just like the Democratic Party, because then they would have to GIVE something. Medicare4All. Minimum Wages. Whatever. TUCKER would have to give…deportations to destroy corporations. Expose his own donors in the Epstein Files (which he also has and doesn’t release either). Stop the Police State in J6. Enforce 10A. End Obamacare. He doesn’t even PROMISE to do that. Just promise, Tuck, just LIE. He can’t because immediately it will be completely clear they have no interest in stopping Oligarchs or restoring the Rule of Law. Like, Immediately. So neither Hillary nor Tucker can even PROMISE, and just double-cross you a year from now. It’s so stark, you’ll see it right away, before election day.

    And they know it.

    So good work. I doubted myself in saying, “Is it REALLY possible Tuck and Massie have been high level moles all along like some say?” Sorry to say, seems like. Proof is coming in right now. Looks like the plan to split the Republican Party is no-so-goodly. No viewers, no one cares, and they care even less now that we know what’s inside.

    (P.S. Greene retired from Congress the day she got the infinity pension and left the country with $5 Million dollars. She said because working was hard and pepo were not as nice as she wanted. Honest. In Congress. This is the sort of person we should take as a hard-core, die-hard, whatever-it-takes patriot, right next to Joe Kent, who quit, said nothing, the same. Okay guys, apparently we have different expectations of what “Fighting” means. Forklift drivers in Brooklyn took more flak for posting cartoons than you have and for no money. About 1,000 people took more hits and got no eternal gov’t pension for showing up gun-free at an election rally and being arrested with no charges.)

    The Limousine Liberals of our time.

    Look: Tuck’s said a lot of things over the years; now is the time for Action. If you have principles at all, the action, and the MEANS (don’t forget) are also the self-evident outgrowth of your Eternal Principles. So not having any just means you have no principles. It’s just impossible to have them and not instantly express them, express them as a fact, and as an action, a list of priorities and actions that create a moral world. People disagree with them, you say them diplomatically, sure. But you Have them. You’re more likely to be tripped up double-talking them, selling them softly, than to have none at all. Democrats, the DSA HAVE Them for example: It’s to steal everything and murder everyone, with them in charge of total power. Submit or die. Fine. They think a despot means they are good, and being good, they will automatically create a good and just world. By force. That’s Lenin’s view. Fine, it’s very simple, held by Kings for centuries. But they have one.

    Tuck doesn’t even HAVE one? C’mon.

    It’s not that Trump doesn’t have one either: it’s just that his world is RealPolitik, Get-some-shit-done, practical view. It doesn’t have some deep moral philosophy underneath, although others around him do. He would not kill people as it’s just impractical and counterproductive, which it is. But that’s not a moral barrier, if it helps his end, he’ll break the eggs. This is exactly how Evil always crucify any “Moral” actor: they arrange to make him cross his own red line, and if not break himself, lose his base. That’s why the 4th Turning leader is a “Grey Man”. Morally grey. Because then there are no Red Lines to so easily make him trip. So without some master theory, you have to have an idea if Trump’s vision is anywhere closer to “Good” or “America” than here, move from Very, very Bad, to “Muddling Suck.” If so, be practical and make that move, it’ll be far easier to reach Utopia from there than here. In history, that’s the best you ever get anyway, don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good, take any ground that’s given.

    Americans are likewise a practical people and also not abstract. They take action and try things. If things don’t work, they are not broken up by it and move on. Perfect is neither an option nor an expectation for us, only “better than here.” The rest of the world cannot grasp either of these. Guilty over everything, terrified of failure, lost in theory and ideas. Ruled by evil overlords by each of them. Oh, nor the concept of “Honest Work”.

    So Moral they’re no earthly good, as they say.

    Okay, that seems Tucker’s dead on arrival. No uptake at all. ONLY moralizing, no action. Kent too.

    “US Army’s 400 Million Laser Deal Accelerates Race To Harden Bases From Kamikaze Swarms

    We already have them and have for a while. First beta 20(?) years ago? We’re just admitting it because it’s obvious to our enemies on the ground. (Fox News will take years longer) So we’re “Out of missiles”…that we don’t need since we always had this. Hmmmm. Cash and Checks accepted.

    “Iran’s Mehr Releases Video Of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei For ‘First Time’ – Except It’s Old

    ALSO in the news yesterday, that they admitted he was dead. So he’s both alive and dead. No one finds this remarkable and is an everyday occurrence of reporting now. I point out that there is ONE Team for whom this is the hallmark of their every move: London and the Globalists. Men are Women who are Men ackshully. WNBA that is the NBA, that is NOT the NBA because they are the “W”NBA. Trump is Deep State but ALSO assassinated by the Deep State. Russia is powerful and running every election, but ALSO so weak Ukraine can roll them in a week. Over and over and over and over. One Team only. But that’s good. We know them the minute the pop up, from their fruits. It takes real talent to be this bat s–t.

    It’s not him being alive or dead. It’s that WHO is running the country? Not Civilian. Not Army. So clearly not Mojtaba? That leave the “IRGC”. But they are ALSO 100% dishonest scoundrels who don’t use the process to get a new Khamenei? Wtf? THAT is the part that matters to Iranians. Even if the IRGC “Just Said” “Suck it peasants, we’re taking over and your dictator now” that’s honest, makes sense. We know. They can’t even do that? How can you trust them and go to them when they’re NOT in charge? Who’s in charge? It’s intolerable, and demonstrates they’re not trustworthy. And WHY NOT? If they’re in charge, it’s easy to just say so, just start whatever new process you’re going to have. Why would you DENY being in charge? Is it because you’re not and it’s someone even DEEPER, behind you? Offshore London bankers? Who could it be, so bad they can’t even SPEAK of them? Yet they obviously are, and obviously don’t, and obviously haven’t, are afraid to admit it, for months.

    Just say so. Just say “IT’s US.” Eat hot lead, Iranian cabbie! Pretenders to the throne. Nope. No one is in charge but everyone is. Mojtaba is dead but also alive. There is peace and passage but also war and blockade. Almost like the Father of Lies, the Morningstar, rebelling against Reality itself.

    “Trump-Backed “El Tigre” Takes Power In Colombia As Right-Wing Wave Sweeps Americas

    The minute USAID is shut off. Wow! Who would have know the CIA’s slush fund was running election-toppling campaigns? And all Antifa and he NGO > DNC donations too? Right here in the last many elections, as Tulsi’s documents have demonstrated. 2024, 2020, 2016…but why not back to 2000, which wasn’t a real election either, famously so, where they picked the wrong guy illegally and didn’t care? 25 years of non-elections. Therefore non-laws and non-government.

    I’ll tell you: Yeah, we know. What are you going to DO about it? Is it enough to just move on?

    #246932
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Pravin Sawhney: JUST IN: Yemeni Forces Claim Responsibility for Overnight Aramco Refinery Attack

    #246933
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Israel ATTACKS Iran? War Now IMMINENT as Trump FOLDS | Seyed M. Marandi

    #246934
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Russian Engineers did the Impossible: ‘Golden TITAN’ dealt a Crushing Blow to the West in the ARCTIC

    #246935
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #246940
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Today:
    “Pravin Sawhney: JUST IN: Yemeni Forces Claim Responsibility for Overnight Aramco Refinery Attack”

    Yes, and oil makes $0 dollar change in price. Wow.

    “Russian Engineers did the Impossible: ‘Golden TITAN’ dealt a Crushing Blow to the West in the ARCTIC”

    Yes, the U.S. has ceased to exist and is sobbing in a corner, also translated as “No one noticed.” That’s what “Crushing blow” means.

    “Israel ATTACKS Iran? War Now IMMINENT as Trump FOLDS | Seyed M. Marandi”

    TACO Marandi agrees that if Trump stops bombing Iran for even a minute, he lost. Therefore the more bombing Iran experiences the more they win! Yes!!!. #Logic 101. This is not at all the #Opposite of all military history over the last 10,000 years. Genius! Also: what attack? What Israel?

    “inject something in your coffee” to age you decades overnight.”

    Pretty sure they have a long-release hormone poison that doesn’t change your body outright, but is adequate to change your brain’s perception of gender and causes transgender dysphoria. ‘Cause any who annoys the Globalists suddenly seems to have this happen to them. Manley, Wachowskis, Jenner as a test case, many others. Put in vaccines on your daughter for the lols perhaps.

    Knowledge with no morality or wisdom, as Frankenstein warned. Evil AF, or rather worse “Lacking any notion of morality whatsoever”. Pure blank. Aging someone? Cancer, like Tulsi’s husband? Kid’s stuff. Okay, and how do you Un-Know these things so evil doesn’t use them?

    “JD Vance says it can be fixed”

    Sure, it was not even Capitalism, as I say every day. Promethean Action covers how it happened, how it’s fixed, and why Trump’s whole platform is installing this. Ummmm…Tariffs? Ring a bell?

    This is classic Oligarch behavior, done 100 years now. As Oligarchs make this exact non-Capitalism, then when it is destroyed because of them, BLAME CAPITALISM, not themselves. And install a WORSE system called Socialism, ALSO run by the same Insider Party Oligarchs. Why not? I can’t go over 100 years of examples here: pick one at random, “The People” never run f—k all. The wealth is extracted as Socialism is an even WORSE neo-feudalism, with a modern police and propaganda state on top. Since we’re halfway there, you should recognize it.

    “CNN compiled a series of clips showing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warning since 1996 that Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.”

    Yes. As I’ve said for years. The difference? IRAN ADMITTED IT. They SAID they were refined to a certain level, at which the refining becomes like an easy overnight process. Certain IRGC people SAID they were going to do this, make a bomb, openly, weeks before Feb, just as Ukraine SAID they fully intended to have nukes a few weeks before 2/22/22. They ALSO now have the missiles “For Space”, which have never gone to space even once, but DID have this exact size payload. Total coincidence. And that is also different: they CAN deliver.

    …That seems somewhat different, CNN? Wow, CNN who supported “They’ll greet us with flowers” and every other bulls—t interventionist nonsense over the years Lo! SUDDENLY goes reverse? In lockstep with London, who like Blair have never not bombed or invaded anywhere on earth, but this ONE TIME don’t want war and DO want nuclear weapons in their Satrap in the Gulf? So. Odd.

    Well, since Iran admitted it if you look, it’s just too hard to figure out. The world may never know.

    “• Bessent Outlines Capital Markets Making the Strait of Hormuz Irrelevant (CTH)

    Iran has no leverage because it’s already clear the Gulf has no importance. Past tense. Global money and oil flows have re-routed around it. Past tense. If Iran keeps it closed for 1,000 years, it won’t matter to anyone except them.

    “• Iran’s Economy Is In Shambles As War Takes Its Toll (ZH)

    Meanwhile, every restaurant is full, every highway, with new pickup trucks. Amazon is selling briskly. No I don’t find this advisable, however it’s true. Every market, straight up, bonds and dollar selling strongly.

    Yup, that’s how the U.S. has been discredited and collapsed. We alone have the strongest markets as the world rushes to us. Military recruitment rockets up. That’s what “Losing” and “Discredited” means.

    “• Trump Has Already Won in Iran, by Any Definition That Matters (Eric Florack)

    It would matter if the American People think so. They don’t care. Because they don’t understand wtf is going on, and neither do any of the pundits, as I dissect daily their incredible self-contradictory beliefs. People who hate Trump still do, even if he saved kittens. So that they are no longer politically relevant. Others see the economy moving, jobs appearing and wages rising. Gas is high but tolerable.

    “The UAE, which watched its exports crater to 1.9 million barrels a day when this war opened, is now pumping close to 4 million barrels a day — past prewar levels, not just back to them. Regional flows overall have clawed back to roughly three-quarters of where they stood”

    $200/bbl Pepe? Where is it? You’re the Expert. Explain. It’s lower than Biden, it’s actually near the long-term floor which is probably $70. (WTI is $77, with both seas closed)

    “• The Republic Will End in 2032 (Martin Armstrong)

    Did it? What does he see? I’d say it ended in 1913. We’ve been sharply something else, then sharply since 1963, then sharply since 1979, then sharply an Empire since 1990. That is being reversed and restored, not least of which is we’re all discussing it, including the Amendment on Senators. 4th Turnings by definition end up somewhere new, same as 1776 and Lincoln. This is no different, but what? How do we counterweight an off-planet SpaceX? Do you know? I don’t.

    “Hong was asked about her 2020 statements declaring “police exist to uphold white supremacy” and “I support defunding the police as a first step towards abolishing the police.”

    She also basically said she hated her children because they were half white. Wow. Way to go, Mom.

    ““Cancel Thanksgiving. Should have done this in 1621.”

    Hong, as a Korean (Remember she does not align with White NOR America) has a dog in this fight. Ummm…wouldn’t you have to admit you’re American to have legal standing for an opinion here? A: “DON’T INTERFERE WITH MY HATE!!! My HATE for my own children so imagine what I’m going to do to YOU!

    Wow, that says “Must place into power over me” like nothing else.

    “El-Sayed” Let’s follow Luongo on this. The DNC apparently VOTE-RIGGED to try to keep him out and lost. Ballots just kept showing up, California-style. Now that he’s in, all Independents are breaking their arm coming out to vote GOP against him. Now the DNC central has the worst problem: LOSE the election altogether. OR, PAY BIG to make a traitor the the DNC win there. Lose-lose. AND they can only do that by diverting funds from Georgia or somewhere. I’d just take the certain loss and lock him out, but that means Yet Another Seat in a close Congress.

    Lose, Lose, Lose. But sure, it’s Trump who has to worry. Heck mail-in ballots alone and he’ll probably win. Redistricting makes it certain. Oh IranIranIran. I think people who have opinions on this must not be Americans or live here. They’re in la-la land. It’s so d–n simple they can’t understand it.

    “• The Money Trail Behind Zohran Mamdani and Abdul El-Sayed (CTH)

    Gosh if I were Trump I’d give them an open checkbook. Ayn Rand. They have to see it for themselves or they’re not cured.

    “Oxford Union, a supposed bastion of open debate, a single brown paper envelope triggered pure panic.”

    Actually shows Islam’s extreme intolerance. For the views of normal Saxons. The Seax is the historic and religious symbol of the Saxons, from which they derive their name. So they should be able to carry this ethnic long knife everywhere they go just as the Sikhs do, yes? That’s religious and ethnic tolerance.

    No, because they are blinding and overwhelmingly bigoted against ethnicities and minorities. They choose their own by robbing others’, that is all.

    “TESLA INVESTOR ROSS GERBER DEMANDS ELON MUSK STEP DOWN”

    Dumb people say a lot of dumb things. QED I wouldn’t pay much attention.

    “”Don’t pursue money.”

    Overwhelmingly sure this is false. Quite certain Elon pays ppl to defend his stock, as was in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” 1930s. Tesla goes up mostly ON THE SHORTS and not on its own merits, and always has. But if not that, remember he came up short and rigged Doge Coin that one time? Pump-n-Dump’r. Classic. He always has. He’s not an engineer, he’s a money-guy. He doesn’t make things like Tesla, he bought it out with the tech already formed.

    “The nature of fear is that people don’t look at it. Look at it directly and it will be gone”

    That is not my experience. It may be the experience of the chronically delusional. Ask any soldier how that works for ‘em.

    #246941
    tboc
    Participant

    “Young people are turning to socialism because our country has been sold out to foreigners and now the middle class has been wiped out and can’t afford to live”

    Who sold it and where is the money?

    the first person who say’s “The Democrats” will be summarily shot.

    #246942
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Why the Iran War Won’t End Soon (w/ Alastair Crooke) | TCHR

    #246945
    zerosum
    Participant

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irans-economy-shambles-war-takes-its-toll
    Iran’s Economy Is In Shambles As War Takes Its Toll

    by Tyler Durden

    Iran has been dealt an estimated $270 billion to $300 billion in total damage due to a steady barrage of strikes, including numerous infrastructure targets from bridges, highways, railways, airports, etc.
    ————
    https://www.bing.com/search?q=The+Direct+and+Indirect+Cost+of+the+2026+US-Israel+War+on+Iran+30+Jun+2026&FORM=ANAB01&adppc=EDGEESS&PC=EDGEESS
    The Direct and Indirect Cost of the 2026 US-Israel War on Iran
    30 Jun 2026
    Written By
    Dr. Mohamed Shadi
    Mostafa Ahmed

    The Al Habtoor Research Centre (AHRC) presents a groundbreaking, equation-based assessment analysing the direct and indirect social and economic resource costs of the 110-day conflict that began on February 28, 2026. Utilising an advanced conflict economics framework—including the Stiglitz-Bilmes convention and counterfactual synthetic controls—this research delivers an unprecedented, exclusive analysis of the financial burdens borne by the belligerents and the wider global economy. The headline finding is one of profound asymmetry, proving that recovery capacity, rather than the size of the initial kinetic blow, dictates the medium-term cost of modern warfare. The largest financial burden fell on the global economy, specifically non-belligerent, bystander oil-importing nations, totalling an estimated $1.41 trillion by 2030. Triggered by the 110-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this true burden lies in unproduced global output rather than the temporary oil-price spike, which ultimately nets to zero globally. Among the combatants, Iran absorbed an existential, structural blow equivalent to roughly 81% of its pre-war output, costing $305 billion by 2030, or $720 billion on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis. Locked out of international capital markets, its output gap fails to close by the end of the decade, triggering a step down to a permanently lower economic path. In contrast, the United States faces a heavily back-loaded bill ranging from $200 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2030. While structurally insulated from the immediate oil shock due to its net energy exporter status, this massive range in projections depends on whether standard cash-budgeting or full multi-decade liabilities—such as veteran care, war-debt interest, and budget ratchets—are present-valued. Meanwhile, Israel sustained a sharp but recoverable macroeconomic shock of $135 billion by 2030, equal to roughly a quarter of a single year’s GDP. Advanced air defense mitigated physical destruction, concentrating the cost instead on reserve mobilisation, interception economics, and a transient output gap. Ultimately, this exclusive analysis details how the poorest bystander nations subsidised the conflict’s macro cost, marking the 2026 war as one of the most economically disruptive events of the century.

    ————–

    #246947
    zerosum
    Participant

    Copilot input

    **Bankers tend to talk about Middle East wars in three specific frames: cost, investment impact, and leverage.**
    Below is a synthesis of what major financial institutions (Goldman Sachs, IMF, J.P. Morgan, Bank of Canada) are actually saying, grounded in the sources you saw above.


    1. Cost: Wars = Volatility, Inflation, and Higher Funding Costs**
    Bankers don’t frame “cost” the way governments do. They look at **market stress channels**:

    **Energy‑price shock → inflation → higher interest rates**
    Goldman Sachs notes that oil above \$100/bbl becomes a major macro drag and forces central banks to keep rates higher longer. [am.gs.com](https://am.gs.com/en-int/advisors/insights/article/2026/market-brief-investment-perspectives-middle-east-conflict)

    **Higher sovereign borrowing costs**
    The IMF warns that war‑driven inflation pushes bond yields up sharply, increasing rollover risk for governments already carrying high debt loads. [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)

    **Capital outflows from vulnerable economies**
    Emerging markets suffer currency pressure and capital flight as investors de‑risk. [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)

    **Banker translation:**
    Wars make money more expensive, debt more dangerous, and liquidity more fragile.

    2. Investments: Wars Reshape Asset Allocation**
    Banks frame Middle East conflict as an **asset‑allocation problem**, not a geopolitical one.

    What they highlight:
    Volatility spikes across equities, bonds, FX, and commodities**
    Goldman Sachs describes markets “flipping back and forth” as investors reassess duration and severity.
    – **Energy exporters benefit; importers suffer**
    Bank of Canada notes that Canada gains from higher oil prices, while Asian importers face severe stress.
    – **AI and tech valuations become vulnerable**
    IMF warns that conflict‑driven tightening could hit highly leveraged sectors like AI firms relying on circular financing.

    – **Bond–equity correlation breaks**
    More frequent supply shocks weaken the traditional hedging relationship, increasing portfolio risk. [IMF eLibrary]
    **Banker translation:**
    Wars force investors to rebalance toward energy, commodities, and defensive assets, while reducing exposure to leveraged tech and emerging markets.

    **3. Leverage: Wars Stress the System’s Weak Points**
    Bankers obsess over **amplification channels** — places where leverage turns shocks into crises.

    ### Key leverage risks they identify:
    – **Nonbank financial institutions (hedge funds, leveraged ETFs)**
    IMF warns these can trigger forced deleveraging, margin calls, and liquidity spirals. [IMF]
    – **Sovereign–bank nexus**
    Rising yields stress banks holding government debt, creating feedback loops. [IMF]
    – **Carry trade unwinds**
    EM currencies get hammered when leveraged FX positions unwind. [IMF]
    – **Energy supply chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz)**
    Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan both highlight that closure or damage to critical oil infrastructure is the true systemic risk — not the war itself.

    **Banker translation:**
    Wars expose leverage in the financial system. The conflict itself is not the danger — the forced unwinding of leveraged positions is.

    What bankers *really* mean when they talk about Middle East wars**
    If you strip away the polite language, the banker view is:

    > **“Wars don’t break markets. Leverage does.
    > Wars increase volatility, and volatility tests leverage.”**

    They care less about geopolitics and more about:
    – duration of disruption
    – oil flow stability
    – inflation expectations
    – liquidity conditions
    – forced deleveraging risk

    ————

    #246948
    zerosum
    Participant

    We knew … Soooo what?
    https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/russia-gets-documentary-proof-of

    Russia gets documentary proof of NATO’s direct involvement in Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while Iran sets conditions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
    Plus news and updates from Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen
    Ismaele
    Aug 08, 2026
    ———–
    Tell me something that I didn’t know.
    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraines-air-defense-crisis-turns

    Ukraine’s Air Defense Crisis Turns Global as Russian Ferocity Puts Country on Brink
    Simplicius
    Aug 08, 2026
    ————

    #246953
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #246954
    John Day
    Participant

    “I have in this envelope a drawing of the Prophet Mohammed comsumating his marriage with his wife, Aisha, who he married when she was 7, but waited for consumation until she was 9…”

    #246955
    John Day
    Participant

    Quoth T.B.O.C: “Who sold it and where is the money?”

    The “money” is claims upon goods and services. It is everywhere, in “reserve” form and virtual forms, in excess of deliverable goods and services by a factor of 10 to 100, depending on whether you include derivatives.
    There will be probles at some moment. I don’t know when. Holding “reserve forms” of currency is a short-term mitigation. Don’t tell where “it” is, though… ;-/

    #246956
    John Day
    Participant

    Missile Umbrella Has Vanished https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/missile-umbrella-has-vanished

    You may recall that my working hypothesis is that global real economy correlates 90% with oil use and that crude + condensates peaked at the end of 2025, after a prior peak at end of 2018, and the peak of conventional-oil in 2005, so global real economy is tipping over into terminal contraction..
    If this is the case, then the Hormuz & Ukraine wars can provide a convincing narrative for why oil is short, but nothing can make global net oil supplies increase. We are tracking my hypothesis against history-unfolding. The current arrangements in the Mideast, with Israel as surrogate-hegemon and Iran as rival are already doomed by Iran’s accurate and powerful missiles, against which Israel and the US can not defend, having nearly exhausted their expensive defensive missiles, which may be replaced by factories in a couple of years.
    Energy and mineral resources, and routes, are now hotly contested, going into this decline. Any powerful group would choose to force economic decline upon competitors, and to be relatively spared. Russia is just trying to defend all those vast resources with a modest population.
    Western banking & finance really want all of that, as well as all of the oil and gas in the mideast, because they are facing financial collapse due to debts growing exponentially, while physical wealth has stalled and is going into contraction.
    Iranian power elites have decided to contest for primacy in the Mideast, first peeling oil-rich neighbors away from a hegemony that can’t defend them, then making hegemonic presence unprofitable for the retiring-hegemon, which can just leave the region…
    I presume that Iran will then duel-to-the-death with “Israel”, and that death will be the main winner, but I could be wrong again. We’ll see. I still have not seen convincing evidence that the original Bibi Netanyahu is alive since early March of this year. What I have seen looks like AI and/or a less-intelligent body-double with different movements and blander facial expressions.
    If Israel does bomb Iran without US coordination or approval, and knows that there will be a counter-attack, would they not highly consider nuclear annihilation? What other chance of victory do they have in this war of attrittion? If Iran, China, Russia, Turkey the US, SaudiArabia, Pakistan and Egypt anticipate this, what might they be doing now to prepare?

    Fabio Vighi’s March 17 essay is aging well: The Programmable Crisis: Iran and the Financial Regime Change
    The next economic downturn will not just be managed with more money printing. It will be programmed directly into the money itself. Major geopolitical crises rarely operate only at the level of military strategy. They also reshape the economic and institutional frameworks through which societies are governed. Public attention focuses on the visible drama of conflict, while deeper financial and monetary transformations unfold largely outside the field of political debate…
    ​..In a highly indebted economy, a sustained oil shock behaves less like traditional inflation and more like a tax on consumption. As rising energy costs absorb a larger share of household income, discretionary spending collapses. Corporate revenues fall while input costs rise, leaving heavily leveraged firms and households struggling to service debt. The result is not necessarily sustained inflation but the risk of a debt-deflation spiral — a dynamic visible in the months preceding the 2008 financial crisis. This economic crisis scenario makes the existing mountain of US public and private debt much harder to manage, creating a powerful incentive for radical financial solutions.​..
    ​..Historically, major shifts in monetary systems have often occurred during periods of crisis. Wars, financial collapses, and geopolitical shocks create the conditions under which previously unthinkable policies suddenly become possible. Moments of emergency suspend normal constraints, allowing governments and central banks to reorganise financial structures in ways that would be politically impossible during stable periods. The collapse of the Bretton Woods gold-dollar system in the early 1970s is a clear example: a monetary regime that had defined the post-war world was quietly replaced in the midst of geopolitical and financial turbulence. In other words, the escalation of the Middle East conflict could allow the US to legitimise tools for:
    ​ Digital Debt Monetisation: a government-aligned digital dollar infrastructure could allow for the direct distribution of stimulus and the purchasing of government debt, bypassing traditional banking system constraints and political gridlock.
    ​ Direct Economic Control: a programmable, centrally managed digital currency platform gives authorities unprecedented levers to influence spending, saving, and capital allocation during a crisis. Money is no longer just a store of value; it can become “money with an expiry date,” programmed to devalue or vanish if not spent in a certain way.
    ​ Maintaining Dollar Hegemony: integrating private stablecoins into the official system can be a way to co-opt and regulate the crypto space, ensuring the next generation of digital money remains dollar-denominated and under US oversight, rather than shifting to a decentralised alternative.
    ​ The significance of the above resides not simply in digitising money but in embedding rules directly into the monetary unit itself. Traditional monetary policy operates through interest rates, bank lending, and financial markets. Programmable digital money, by contrast, allows policy to be transmitted directly to households and firms through the design of the currency itself, determining when it can be spent, where it can circulate, and under what conditions it retains value.​..
    ​..Political power in modern societies is increasingly exercised through infrastructure rather than through overt legislation. Payment systems, settlement networks, and financial protocols determine what kinds of economic actions are possible and which are not. Because these systems are technical and largely invisible to the public, changes to them rarely provoke the kind of political scrutiny that accompanies formal policy decisions. Yet once such infrastructure is in place, it effectively sets the parameters within which future policy must operate. In that sense, the construction of digital monetary rails is not merely a technological upgrade; it is the creation of a new field of economic governance.​..
    ..Crucially, the emerging system is unlikely to be a purely state-run digital currency. Instead, it appears to be evolving as a hybrid architecture in which private stablecoin issuers, exchanges, and fintech platforms operate on top of central bank settlement infrastructure. In this model, the state controls the monetary base and regulatory perimeter, while private actors control the interfaces through which money is used. The architecture achieves what politics alone could not: participation becomes structurally unavoidable.​ https://www.defenddemocracy.press/the-programmable-crisis-iran-and-the-financial-regime-change/

    ​ BREAKING: Tether purchased +14 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 146 tonnes, now worth ~$18.8 billion. This follows gold purchases of +53 tonnes between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026. Tether’s gold holdings have more than doubled since Q1 2025, while their value has nearly tripled over the same period. This makes the company the largest known private holder of gold outside of central banks and governments.​ https://xcancel.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2085401147901202634

    IRGC Strikes ‘Hostile Targets’ In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US Vessels From Strait​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/yemen-war-reignites-houthis-intensify-saudi-shipping-attacks-ground-assault-amid

    ​With naval gunnery from battleships, perhaps, Mr. President? Trump Warns Iran to Open Hormuz or Get ‘Hit Very Hard’ https://english.aawsat.com/world/5303534-trump-warns-iran-open-hormuz-or-get-%E2%80%98hit-very-hard%E2%80%99

    • This reply was modified 22 hours, 43 minutes ago by John Day.
    #246959
    John Day
    Participant

    Not just a threat: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes https://www.arabnews.com/node/2653568/middle-east

    These are the missiles that go up into space to intercept ballistic missiles before they accellerate in descent: U.S. Used Nearly 80% of THAAD Interceptors During Iran Conflict, Pentagon Stockpiles Run Low https://www.thedefensenews.com/US-Used-Nearly-80-of-THAAD-Interceptors-During-Iran-Conflict-Pentagon-Stockpiles-Run-Low/

    I am generally against scapegoating whipping-boys, but… Trump grills Hegseth — The US president reportedly accused the secretary of war of providing misleading information about the state of the country’s munitions stockpiles https://web.archive.org/web/20260806120614/https://www.rt.com/news/643928-trump-hegseth-weapons-stockpiles-drain/

    ​ Trump Threatens ‘Leakers’ With Jail Time Over Reports About Munitions Shortages
    The president also denied a report from The Washington Post that said he lashed out at Pete Hegseth over the depletion of US military stockpiles​ https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/06/trump-threatens-leakers-with-jail-time-over-reports-about-munitions-shortages/

    #246960
    John Day
    Participant

    Joint Chiefs Chair Pushing For Iran War Off-Ramp, Warning Escalation Will Backfire​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/joint-chiefs-chair-pushing-iran-war-ramp-warning-escalation-will-backfire

    ​ Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-09
    Two Saudi Aramco sites burned overnight – the Berri gas plant near Jubail and the Jizan refinery – with Yemen’s armed forces publicly claiming the Jizan drone strike, days after Riyadh signed a collective-defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey.
    ​ Tehran meanwhile put a number on Hormuz: nine conditions including $300bn compensation and a 7% transit fee, while Israel told CENTCOM it is preparing to attack Iran alone as the US Joint Chiefs chair hunts an off-ramp.
    ​ Everything else – gold’s central-bank bid, silver’s vault drain, AI capex credit – moved along its existing track with fresh numbers attached.​..
    ​..Iran’s Hormuz reopening terms formalised: nine conditions, $300bn, and a transit fee. The list includes an end to the naval blockade, US withdrawal from the region, $300bn in war compensation, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, a ban on US and Israeli vessels, up to 7% cargo transit fees and a 20% violation toll (HormuzReport). SNSC Secretary Zolghadr’s version of the conditions per NicoleGrajewski and OSINTtechnical; covered by zerohedge.
    ​ Israel informs CENTCOM it will strike Iran without US approval. Per Israeli Channel 13, the IDF told Adm. Brad Cooper that Israel needs neither approval nor support and is “currently making preparations to start the war” (HormuzLetter). The trigger: US Gen. Dan Caine is “looking for a way out” and does not believe another air campaign helps (HormuzLetter, HormuzReport, Osint613, zerohedge).​..
    ​..Israel goes alone: interceptor stocks low, US stockpiles “troubling”, CENTCOM commander flies home
    Netanyahu’s calculus is read as political rather than strategic – October elections, and a strike on Iran as the last card (HormuzReport).
    ​ The counter-argument, from an OSINT account tracking the actual air picture: Israel has yet to show it can strike Iran without US SEAD plus active US/French/UK defence of Israel, and Iranian retaliation would land while Israeli interceptor stocks are critical (MenchOsint).
    ​ CENTCOM commander Adm. Cooper left the region after a short Bahrain-UAE-Israel tour (MenchOsint).​..
    ..Strip out computer equipment, software and R&D and roughly 92% of the US economy is growing at about 1%, with a downward trajectory (themarketear, DonDurrett). https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-09

    ​Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-08
    ​ Two things actually moved: July payrolls printed -23K against an +80K consensus with 103K revised away from May/June, and Washington conceded it will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports once an Iran-Oman Hormuz framework lands — Iran keeping sovereign control, vessel bans and fees.
    ​ Metals took the payroll print and ran, gold posting its best week since January per multiple desks.
    ​ Everything else is continuation with real advances: the Mecca Accord got signed the same day another Marib camp got hit, Russian forces closed the western flank at Orikhiv, and the AI credit market started pricing something the equity market isn’t
    . US agrees to lift the naval blockade on Iran as part of the Hormuz framework. HormuzReport details the emerging terms: Iran retains full sovereign control over inbound traffic, bans US/Israeli/hostile vessels, and may charge up to 7% of cargo value. Corroborated by zerohedge and DropSiteNews, both citing Reuters.​..
    ​..Hormuz: Washington concedes the blockade, Tehran adds compensation to the price​ – zerohedge timed the leak precisely — Reuters bullet points hitting minutes before the close, US official saying progress with Oman, deal expected soon, blockade lifted once commercial shipping is restored “without impediments.”
    ​ Subsequent US action is “performance-based and tied to Iran’s implementation” (DropSiteNews) — which is how you write a deal you expect to be broken.
    ​ Tehran’s price keeps rising. The mayor of Tehran: nations that threatened Iran have no right to use the strait until compensation is paid, and transit depends on sanctions relief (zerohedge)​…
    ​..Physical oil is not behaving like a deal is imminent. US imports of Saudi crude hit zero in July — first full month since 1985, down from 800kb/d in March, with Venezuela at ~600kb/d filling the hole (KobeissiLetter)…
    ​..Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a NATO-style mutual-defence treaty with an Article 5-equivalent clause. (IranObserver0, zerohedge); formally named the Mecca Agreement (MilitarySummary, wmiddelkoop).​..
    ​..Mecca Accord signed as Saudi interceptor stocks run dry — and Marib gets hit the same day​ – The number underneath the treaty: Saudi Arabia burned 86% of its 2,800 US Patriot PAC-3 interceptors in the first 38 days, leaving ~400 by April. The US itself has spent ~65% of its Patriot interceptors between February and July — under 850 left, from 2,330 (HormuzLetter, citing Reuters/CSIS).
    ​ That is the actual reason three countries signed a mutual-defence pact. Gulf states no longer believe the US umbrella exists.
    ​ Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei’s response: “a paper agreement with Turkiye and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as years of one-sided nursing to the Americans did not” (MilitarySummary). zerohedge notes Iranian and Israeli officials both calling Saudi Arabia a paper tiger — rare agreement.
    ​ Human cost, layer one: the Houthis conducted a large-scale attack on Saudi-backed government forces killing “hundreds” of troops, and struck Najran in southwestern Saudi Arabia (zerohedge, citing BBG). A separate Houthi drone attack in Marib killed three government fighters and wounded four per AFP (ILRedAlert)…​
    ​..Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine is privately pushing for an off-ramp from the Iran war. CNN reports he has made this clear to other top Trump advisers over recent weeks; picked up by Megatron_ron.​ …
    ​..Yen plumbing: FIMA repo opened to Japan, and euros sold without telling the ECB​ – DonDurrett lays out the mechanism plainly: the Fed, at Bessent’s request, opened the FIMA repo facility to Japan. Instead of selling Treasuries, Japan pledges them as collateral to borrow printed dollars to buy yen. In theory Japan repurchases and pays interest. In practice it can decline and keep the dollars.
    ​ The uglier half, single-source but specific: the US sold euros to buy yen without notifying the ECB until after the trade settled, with senior ECB officials calling it “an unprecedented breach of longstanding conventions” (matrbk). Selling dollars would have contradicted the stated strong-dollar policy; selling a European asset did not.
    ​ The stated reason to intervene at all is the Treasury market, not Japan: Japan is the largest foreign holder of USTs, and forced selling into a 30-year near 5.28% is the outcome nobody can price.​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-08

    Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-07
    The Hormuz “deal” didn’t just stall – it detonated: Iran struck two US-escorted tankers in the Oman corridor within hours of Trump claiming an agreement was “coming together,” and Saudi crude exports to the US hit zero for the first time since 1985.
    ​ Yemen delivered its deadliest day in three years while Riyadh braces for a coordinated Houthi-Iraqi-IRGC strike, and the US arsenal story got a face when WaPo put Trump and Hegseth in a shouting match over drained ATACMS.
    ​ Metals ran again (silver +5%), Russia took Ryzhevka and Zarnitsa, and the AI/memory bubble wobbled as the SpaceX lockup opened and KOSPI fell 4.6%.
    ​ Iran strikes two US-escorted tankers in Hormuz; Trump’s “deal” narrative collapses. IRGC hit NISSOS KEA and NISSOS KEROS in the southern Omani corridor – both had switched off AIS – hours after Trump said a deal was “coming together” (HormuzLetter, HormuzReport, zerohedge, spectatorindex).
    ​ Hormuz: the “deal” that reads like a rejection; tolls drafted at 5-7%​ – Iran’s own terms look nothing like a US win: a draft parliamentary bill bans US, Israeli and “hostile” vessels outright, and withholds passage from countries that “damaged Iran” until compensation is paid, with fines up to 20% of cargo value (zerohedge/FARS, MenchOsint).
    ​ Saudi oil exports to the US fell to zero in July – first time in ~40 years. Riyadh was shipping 800k+ bpd earlier this year; Iran’s Hormuz squeeze plus the Houthi blockade cut it off (HormuzLetter, Megatron_ron, Hedgeye).
    ​ Yemen’s deadliest escalation in 3+ years; Saudi braces for coordinated attack. At least 58 killed in Houthi strikes on Saudi-backed forces per AFP; intel points to a simultaneous Houthi + Iraqi militia + IRGC assault on Saudi energy/airport/port targets (ILRedAlert, HormuzLetter, unusual_whales).
    ​ US munitions crisis goes public: Trump-Hegseth Camp David clash. WaPo says Trump erupted at Hegseth over drained stockpiles – ATACMS “basically none left” after 1,300+ fired in the opening weeks; rebuild could take “years” (HormuzLetter, MilitarySummary, zerohedge). Trump then threatened to jail people who say the stockpiles are depleted (Glenn_Diesen).
    ​ Metals run again; central-bank buying at record pace. Silver +5% on the day (wmiddelkoop); PBoC added gold for a 21st straight month (oriental_ghost); central banks bought a record 289t in Q2 per WGC (steve_hanke).​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-07

    ​Don’t just bomb-Iran, Bibi. God’s Chosen Men INVADE! ‘I Am Determined’: Netanyahu Declares Readiness to Strike Iran Alone https://www.palestinechronicle.com/i-am-determined-netanyahu-declares-readiness-to-strike-iran-alone/

    #246961
    John Day
    Participant

    ​It is an extremely hot August. A​lastair Crooke, Tensions flicker into flame, lapping across the Middle East
    The silence surrounding the outcome to the Netanyahu meeting last week in the Oval Office speaks for itself. No American government official came to the airport to receive him, and no red carpet was laid out for him. The visit bombed. Israel is adrift – with its ‘Greater Israel’ strategy now bleeding, for lack both of troops and of coherence.
    ​ Former IDF Ombudsman Maj. Gen. Yitzak Brik predicts (Ma’ariv, 26 July), that the crisis engulfing the Israeli intercept inventory “is only the prelude to the catastrophe that is looming over us.”
    ​ “In the coming wars with Iran, the threat will increase tenfold to the point of a complete loss of the ability to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles. These missiles are expected to hit us: in population centers, strategic targets, production and economic infrastructure, science and technology institutes, educational institutions, hospitals and vital industries, and completely crush us.”
    ​ Trump – finally, it seems – understands that the war which he started in order to crush Iran has flipped – to destroying him. There is effectively no military solution available beyond stopping digging the hole that he is in still deeper.​ https://www.sott.net/article/507779-Tensions-flicker-into-flame-lapping-across-the-Middle-East

    Iran Says It Was Preparing to Strike Three Ukrainian Targets With Ballistic Missiles.​ https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2026/iran-says-it-was-preparing-to-strike-three-ukrainian-targets-with-ballistic-missiles

    ​ Israeli prison guards have beaten a 71-year-old Palestinian doctor, tear-gassed his overcrowded cell and denied him vital medication, according to testimony published by Haaretz. For decades, Dr. Mazen Al-Rantisi, widely known as the “Doctor of the Poor,” has treated low-income Palestinians at his small Ramallah clinic, charging symbolic fees, regularly waiving payment and providing free medicine to patients who cannot afford it.
    ​ Israeli forces raided his home before dawn on June 21 and imprisoned him. Prosecutors indicted him not for violence, but for chairing the Union of Health Work Committees, a Palestinian healthcare nonprofit registered with the Palestinian Authority that Israel later outlawed.
    ​ Al-Rantisi told a lawyer from the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel this week that guards force blindfolded prisoners to walk bent over, beat him and other detainees during repeated raids and fire tear gas into their cells.
    ​ Younger prisoners surround him during the beatings in an effort to shield him. Israel withheld all of his regular prescriptions for his first 10 days at Ofer Prison and continues to deny him one medication.​ https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2084682281965273365

    Research paper documents rising torture and starvation of Palestinian prisoners in July​ https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/05/367837/

    “Ceasefire” May Be the Official Headline, But in Gaza, We Face Constant Bombing​ https://scheerpost.com/2026/08/05/ceasefire-may-be-the-official-headline-but-in-gaza-we-face-constant-bombing/

    #246962
    John Day
    Participant

    Trump’s Gaza Chief Begs Netanyahu to Stop Assassination Campaign​ – Israeli PM rejects pleas to stop bombing Gaza as dozens killed​ https://www.globalresearch.ca/trump-gaza-chief-begs-netanyahu-stop-assassination-campaign/5936039

    IDF to continue to ‘operate proactively’ in Gaza, Israeli military chief says​ https://www.euronews.com/2026/08/05/idf-to-continue-to-operate-proactively-in-gaza-military-chief-says

    ​ Israeli forces launch wide raid on Qalandia refugee camp, search homes, detain residents and force family to evacuate
    They also prevented the performance of dawn prayers in all mosques in the camp.
    The sources added that Israeli military vehicles ran over a young man near the camp, while Israeli soldiers severely assaulted journalist Mohammad Samreen as he was covering the events.​ https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/173236

    ​ Israel advances new colonial plan that further isolates Jerusalem from Bethlehem
    Ir Amim said that the Israeli Municipality of Jerusalem’s Planning and Building Committee approved the plan that envisages the construction of 2,300 units on approximately 20 hectares (around 200 dunums) in the Gilo colony, while expanding the colony southward toward Route 60, which links Jerusalem and Bethlehem.
    ​ It added that the plan involves the expropriation of at least 28 privately-owned dunums under the so-called Absentees’ Property Law, which the occupation authorities utilize to seize Palestinian property.​ https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/173268?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    Scottish teachers reject pro-Israel pressure, continue teaching about Gaza genocide​ https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/05/367842/

    #246963
    John Day
    Participant

    Are US and Israel Benefitting from ‘Migration Blackmail’ in Spain?
    Analysts pointed their fingers at the Moroccan government, arguing it was once again deploying “migration blackmail,” as the practice has been dubbed, to punish its European neighbors and bend them to its will. But this time, Israel and the United States appear to be the principal beneficiaries. Indeed, they have seized on the politically embarrassing episode to weaken a Spanish government they view as one of their principal European antagonists.​ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/morocco-spain-migrants-israel/

    ​ Thanks Eleni. Morocco is weaponizing Migrants on Israel’s Orders to punish Sánchez
    ​ An artificial crisis, on Israel’s orders, is the migration crisis that has been unfolding since Thursday at Spain’s borders. The goal of the Israeli destabilization plan is to undermine and overthrow Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, because the Social Democratic politician supports Palestine and refuses to become a submissive instrument of Israel, as almost all European prime ministers have become.
    ​ Sánchez has been targeted by Zionism because, together with South Africa, he brought Israel before the International Criminal Court on charges of committing genocide in Gaza. The result was the issuance of an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister. Sánchez recognized the state of Palestine, received Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Madrid with head-of-state honors, held a joint press conference with him, and called Palestine a “brother state.” In 2025, Sánchez banned the sale of weapons and the import of any kind of goods from illegal Jewish settlements. He has also repeatedly called on the EU to apply against Israel whatever sanctions it applied against Russia, in connection with the war in Ukraine.​ https://www.defenddemocracy.press/morocco-is-weaponizing-migrants-on-israels-orders-to-punish-sanchez/

    ​ Israel burns over 120-ha olive groves in southern Lebanon
    “The flames made no distinction between the olive groves of Christians and those of Muslims,” he said, adding that the devastation concerned “the whole of the South: its land, its people, its culture, its dignity and its history.”
    ​ The municipality said it plans to submit documentation of the destruction to the United Nations, adding that Israeli forces targeted not only residential areas but also the environment, agricultural land, and cultural heritage in southern Lebanon.​ https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246778/Israel-burns-over-120-ha-olive-groves-in-southern-Lebanon

    ​ At least 2 invading Israeli soldiers killed in Lebanon blast​ – At least two invading Israeli soldiers have been killed and seven others wounded in a bomb explosion in southern Lebanon, as Israel stepped up its attacks across the area, killing one Lebanese resident and injuring 12 others.​ https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246791/At-least-two-invading-Israeli-soldiers-killed-in-Lebanon

    ​ In Cyprus, Israelis are Buying up a lot of Land and Some Fear it is Another Colonisation
    Thousands of people have left Israel and bought land in Cyprus, an island divided between the EU and Turkey where property has been in dispute since 1974. Meanwhile, movements and businessmen close to the Israeli far right are increasingly visible​ https://untoldmag.org/israelis-land-grab-cyprus/

    #246964
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Moon of Alabama, The Odd Defense Agreement Between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan And Turkey
    A new NATO like agreement between three major Sunni states throws up various questions:
    ​ Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign defence pact – MEE
    Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defence agreement on Friday, connecting the three largest Muslim countries in the world under one security umbrella for the first time…
    ..The phrase “shall be considered an attack against all of them” is copied from Article 5 of the NATO Treaty…
    We do not know what consequences​.. of an attack on one member are spelled in the new Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani agreement. I suspect that any of them will be even more vague than those in the NATO treaty.
    ​ I find it hard to understand how this new agreement could possibly have more than symbolic value.
    ​ Pakistan is currently in a conflict with the Pashtun people in its own country as well as with their brethren in Afghanistan. It recently had a clash with India which could soon resume. India is working on diverting the Himalaya water resources Pakistan needs to survive as a state. If that does not stop Pakistan will be, in a few years from now, pressed to go to war for its own survival. India, as well as Pakistan, are nuclear armed.
    ​ Neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have any interest to fight against India or Afghanistan.
    ​ The Saudis are at war with Ansarallah in Yemen. The ‘Houthi’ have recently announced that they will blockade all Saudi seaports until the Saudis lift their long standing air and sea blockade on Yemen. Just yesterday they attacked military installations within Saudi Arabia as well as Saudi proxy forces in south-eastern Yemen.
    ​ Pakistan has already sent forces to Saudi Arabia. But these have been, so far, for purely (air-)defensive purposes. It is hard to imagine that Pakistan or Turkey would send their soldiers to join an unwinnable war in Yemen. (They will remember that in the 1960s Egypt received a bloody nose when it sent ground troops into Yemen.)
    ​ Saudi Arabia also hosts U.S. forces which have become targets of Iranian attacks. If the U.S. decides to attempt another bombing campaign on Iran the revenge strikes will hit Saudi assets. This could, in theory, trigger the new agreement. But Turkey as well as Pakistan have fairy good relations with Tehran. Any intervention from their side would be a risky and high cost endeavors. Their populations would perceive a war against Iran as taking part on the (very much hated) U.S. side.
    ​ It is therefore implausible that the new defense pact is meant for or will have any influence in the ongoing conflicts.
    Pakistan’s interest in the agreement comes down to Saudi money which it needs to prop up its state.
    ​ Turkey wants to sell weapons. The clause on “development of defense cooperation” within the new agreement will likely mean new contracts for Turkish drone makers.
    ​ Saudi Arabia has become distrustful of its U.S. alliance. It is preparing for the U.S. to leave and is seeking other strong partners. In the longer run its potential enemy is likely not Iran but Israel or maybe even the United Arab Emirates, which have Israel’s backing.​ https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/the-odd-defense-agreement-between-saudi-arabia-pakistan-and-turkey.html

    ​ Andrew Korybko, Five Takeaways From The Pakistani-Somali Defense MOU
    Somalia is now a de facto protectorate of the “Islamic NATO”.
    ​ Pakistan and Somalia finally signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on defense cooperation in early August one year after the latter’s Cabinet approved such an arrangement last August. According to the Somali Defense Ministry, “[it] provides a framework for cooperation in counter-terrorism, military training, the exchange of military expertise and knowledge, defence capability development, and enhanced security cooperation”.​
    ​ Here’s what else it signifies:
    ​ 1. Pakistan Is Enhancing Its National Prestige
    This latest defense pact follows last year’s mutual defense one with Saudi Arabia and recent speculation about expanding it to other Arab Kingdoms. Late last year, there were also rumors of Pakistan clinching a multibillion-dollar fighter jet deal with Eastern Libya, which preceded recent reports of Pakistan mediating a peace deal. It’s also reportedly seeking to sell arms to Sudan. The latest MOU with Somalia thus further enhances Pakistan’s national prestige by confirming its trans-regional military influence.
    ​ 2. Somalia Is Now A Protectorate Of The “Islamic NATO”
    Pakistan is the last member of the “Islamic NATO” – the presently unofficial trans-regional military-security coordination platform between itself, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Egypt – to sign a defense pact with Somalia. This accordingly makes Somalia a de facto member of the aforesaid group, which solidifies the expansion of its influence over Africa following the solidification of these four’s influence over Libya and Sudan, but Somalia and the other two are junior partners therein and even arguably protectorates.
    ​ 3. Pakistan Is Following In Turkiye’s Footsteps
    It was observed in early January that “Pakistan Is Playing Second Fiddle To Turkiye In Afro-Eurasian Security” due to the pattern of it clinching military-security deals with countries that Turkiye already has such agreements with. As a brief backgrounder, Turkiye is Pakistan’s senior partner to whom it’s historically looked for guidance despite their nuclear asymmetry, and Turkiye was the first country in recent history to turn Somalia into a de facto protectorate. Pakistan is simply following in its footsteps.
    ​ 4. Islamabad Might Have Broader Ambitions
    Apart from enhancing its national prestige and following in Turkiye’s footsteps, Islamabad might intend to become a tangible stakeholder in the Bab el Mandeb through its new defense MOU with Mogadishu, which would align with both of their reported roles in the Saudi-led maritime coalition. This broader ambition would also represent the first tangible manifestation of the “Islamic NATO” since Egypt and Turkiye are reportedly part of this coalition too. They might all therefore obtain naval bases in Somalia.
    ​ 5. Puntland & Somaliland Should Prepare For War
    For the last point to be most effectively implemented, the renegade Somali region of Puntland and de facto independent Somaliland would have to be brought to heel, but that likely won’t happen anytime soon even with Somalia now de facto becoming the “Islamic NATO’s” protectorate. It’ll take time to properly train its armed forces, and the group’s four leading members are too focused on peace in the Gulf as well as the conflicts in Libya and Sudan, but they’re definitely in its long-term sights.
    ​ In terms of the bigger picture, the top takeaway is that Somalia is now a de facto protectorate of the “Islamic NATO” after its last member just clinched a military-security deal with it. The main implication of this development is that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye are expected to synergize their respective efforts there with a view towards helping the federal government retake the two polities that it claims as its own but doesn’t presently control. Another major regional conflict is therefore brewing.​ https://korybko.substack.com/p/five-takeaways-from-the-pakistani

    Probably nothing could go wrong​ before midterms, right? US Intelligence Assets Said To Descend On Cuba
    Writing in POLITICO on Tuesday, Dasha Burns and Nahal Toosi reported that in recent months the US intelligence community has “sent spies and assets” to Cuba. Specifically, they reported the CIA has increased its presence on the island, which sits approximately 90 miles south of Florida.
    ​ Burns and Toosi based their reporting on interviews with “two people familiar with the Trump administration’s plans for the island,” who were left anonymous due to the “sensitive” nature of the information they provided. The authors said the CIA, White House, Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence all declined requests for comment.
    ​ The report claimed the Trump Administration does not believe it has to resolve the war with Iran before taking military action in Cuba and that the Cuban issue is a “huge priority” of Secretary of State and Acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio.​ https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/05/us-intelligence-assets-said-to-descend-on-cuba/

    ​ Trump & Rubio need a quick PR win. “Peaceful” ismuch less risky for everybody. Is The U.S. Deep State Planning A Color Revolution In Cuba?
    It Seems Like The U.S. Deep State Is Plotting A Color Revolution In Cuba As A Pretext For War.
    ​ One source “described the upped intelligence presence as a key tactical step that could pave the way for a U.S. military incursion”.
    Indeed, the Trump administration, more specifically, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has long been laying the groundwork for a U.S. regime change war in Cuba.​ Rubio has spearheaded the siege warfare campaign on Cuba by forcing Cuba’s main sources of oil- Mexico and Venezuela- to cut off oil exports, and according to inside officials speaking to Drop Site News, even sabotaged U.S.-Cuba negotiations from the inside in order to continue the starvation blockade.​ https://the307.substack.com/p/is-the-us-deep-state-planning-a-color

    China Is Betting AI, Hypersonic Missiles And Quantum Technology Will Define The Next Era Of Warfare​ https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-betting-ai-hypersonic-missiles-and-quantum-technology-will-define-next-era-warfare

    #246965
    John Day
    Participant

    Scientists Warn Of Urgent AI Biosecurity Threat​ – For the first time, artificial intelligence has designed complete, functional viral genomes from scratch.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/scientists-warn-urgent-ai-biosecurity-threat

    ​ BREAKING: Gates Foundation Funds First-Ever Creation of 16 Synthetic Viruses Using AI
    The barrier separating digital AI output from an operational biological agent has now been crossed.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-gates-foundation-funds-first

    Global Food Prices Hit Three-Year High As War, Chokepoint Chaos And El Nino Spark Perfect Storm​ https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-food-prices-hit-three-year-high-war-chokepoint-chaos-and-el-nino-spark-perfect

    ​ Kids In Tiny British Village Beg The Government Not To Force Illegal Migrants On Their Home
    Piddington is a tiny English settlement of roughly 350 people – around 250 adults and just 46 children. The Home Office and Labour government under Andy Burnham intend to place 1,250 single adult male asylum seekers on a former Ministry of Defence site that borders the village, runs along the back of homes, and sits directly against the parish playing field and children’s park.
    ​ If the plan proceeds, the number of young men dumped on their doorstep will dwarf the entire local population.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/political/kids-tiny-british-village-beg-government-not-force-illegal-migrants-their-home

    Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch​ https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/winter-coming-europe-faces-twin-diesel-and-natgas-crunch

    #246966
    John Day
    Participant

    Global Diesel Crunch Deepens As Record US Distillate Exports Race To Supply-Starved Europe​ https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/global-diesel-crunch-deepens-record-us-distillate-exports-race-supply-starved-europe

    ​ There ​may be​ 2 dead girls on the property: New Mexico Sues DOJ For Unredacted Epstein Files​ – New Mexico is suing the Department of Justice (DOJ) over unredacted Epstein files, accusing the federal agency of stonewalling the state’s own investigation into alleged crimes at deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s Zorro Ranch.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/political/new-mexico-sues-doj-unredacted-epstein-files

    ​ Outspent 10:1, but: After Michigan upset, Aipac looks to back Republican candidate against Abdul El-Sayed
    While this was a race where Israel loomed large, the focus was on how the candidates were funded
    ​ After spending more than $30m on a candidate who lost the Michigan Democratic Senate primary on Wednesday, the leading pro-Israel lobbying group in the US has now indicated it will pivot to the Republican in that race come November.​..
    ..The race between pro-Israel Congresswoman Haley Stevens and former Detroit public health official Abdul El-Sayed quickly became the most expensive Democratic primary race of all time.​ Stevens was backed by a further $30m from outside groups who bankrolled round-the-clock attack ads on Sayed.
    ​ Sayed, an Egyptian-American Muslim who has never held elected office, won the exceptionally tight race by one percentage point, in what was a stunning upset for establishment Democrats, and a boon to the progressive wave taking hold across the country.
    ​ Half a million more Democratic voters showed up to the polls than in previous primary races, which typically see low turnouts…
    ​..In 2022, Aipac helped Stevens secure her seat in the House of Representatives by ousting longtime Jewish lawmaker Andy Levin for his support of US policies to punish violent Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.
    ​ “Today, Michigan launched a new chapter in our political history,” Levin wrote on his Instagram account on Wednesday, accompanied by a photograph of him hugging Sayed.​..
    ​..Earlier this year, Aipac helped oust Republican Thomas Massie, who voted against US foreign aid to Israel, in his Kentucky primary race by spending more than $4m against him through its United Democracy Project political action committee.​ That was just part of a coalition of pro-Israel groups that spent $9m against him.​..
    ..Sayed has described Israel’s nearly three-year-old assault on Gaza as a genocide, echoing language used by leading human rights organisations, genocide scholars and the United Nations…
    ..In his victory speech on Wednesday, Sayed said he spoke to Stevens and was assured of her endorsement as he gears up to face former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers in November.​..
    ​..Writing on his social media platform Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump called Sayed “a Communist loser who hates Jews and Israel”, but added that his win is also “great news for the Republican party”, suggesting that he will be easy to defeat..​.
    ..For his part, Sayed told supporters and the media on Wednesday that the focus on his name and identity is “the only play they got” against him.
    ​ “It’s like, wow, he’s different,” he said of Republican attacks.
    ​ “That’s the best you got? You can’t actually talk about what you want to do? My name is not raising your gas prices. My name is not taking us to war. My name is not the reason you can’t afford your groceries.”​ https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/after-major-upset-aipac-michigan-group-looks-back-republican-candidate-against-abdul-el-sayed

    ​ The cookie jars have IOUs to us, from us: Senate Dems Push GOP to Divulge Secret Plan to ‘Attack Earned Benefits Like Social Security’
    “A plan you will not show the voters before they vote is not reassurance. It is a warning and revealing of Republican priorities.”
    ​ In early June, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said the GOP has a “plan” to reform Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—but would not release the details until “next year,” after the 2026 midterms.
    ​ But a group of Senate Democrats argued in a letter to Republican leaders on Wednesday that “Americans deserve to have full transparency into Republican plans to attack earned benefits like Social Security.”​ https://www.commondreams.org/news/republican-plan-cut-social-security

    Can Sam Altman Be Trusted Inside Your Home? Meet OpenAI’s New Always-On Smart Speaker​ https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/can-sam-altman-be-trusted-inside-your-home-meet-openais-new-always-smart-speaker

    #246967
    John Day
    Participant

    The AI bubble may pop before November, but voters will still be here. Texas halts data center connections to power grid amid overwhelming demand
    Governor who touted Texas as AI “epicenter” pauses data center grid connections.​ https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/08/texas-halts-data-center-connections-to-power-grid-amid-overwhelming-demand/

    ​ Pierre Kory MD finally won a preliminary injuction saying that the state cannot decree what a doctor’s medical advice to a patient must be:
    As of Last Night, the U.S Government Will Never Get to Tell Doctors What They Can Say Anymore
    ​ In Kory v. Bonta, a federal judge just barred California’s Attorney General and its medical boards from coming after me and my colleagues for the expert opinions we share with patients.​ https://pierrekorymedicalmusings.com/p/as-of-last-night-the-us-government

    ​ Federal Judge Blocks California From Disciplining Doctors for COVID Medical Advice That Contradicts Public Health Officials
    Senior U.S. District Judge William B. Shubb on Wednesday granted a renewed motion for a preliminary injunction in favor of physician plaintiffs Dr. Pierre Kory, Dr. Le Trinh Hoang and Dr. Brian Tyson in a lawsuit, funded by Children’s Health Defense, against two California medical boards. The injunction applies only to those three doctors and remains in effect pending a final decision on the merits of the case.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/federal-judge-temporarily-blocks-california-from-disciplining-doctors-covid-medical-advice/

    ​ Is a Federal Autism Committee Ignoring Vaccine-Autism Research?
    A draft strategic plan released last month by a federal autism committee outlines a framework for developing “precision” medical treatment and supporting better long-term care for autistic people — but, according to critics, doesn’t include a specific, detailed plan to study a possible link between vaccines and autism. However, a source familiar with the plan told The Defender, “Nothing is excluded and nothing is off the table.”​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/federal-autism-committee-iacc-ignoring-vaccine-autism-research-health-policy/

    ​ RFK Jr. Demands Editors of Journal Defend ‘Concern’ About 2020 Vaccine Study
    In a letter to the editors of Sage Open Medicine, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asked the editors to explain why they are now questioning a peer-reviewed study comparing health outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated children. The study, by CHD Chief Scientific Officer Brian Hooker and Neil Z. Miller, a medical research journalist, was published in May 2020, after passing the journal’s peer-review process.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/rfk-jr-demands-sage-journal-defend-concern-2020-vaccinated-unvaccinated-chd-study/

    #246968
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Sudden onset regressive autism is 25X more likely in vaccinated kids than unvaccinated kids
    This is a result of my reader survey which had nearly equal numbers of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated kids in the study. Nobody can show this is biased because they are too afraid to do the survey.​ https://kirschsubstack.com/p/sudden-onset-regressive-autism-is

    ​ Jessica Rose Ph.D. on the new, approved mRNA “vaccine product”: The “new” mRNA-1010 mFlusiva injectable product
    No saline placebo used in the trials – safety data compared only against “active controls” with higher observed death, nonetheless​ https://jessicar.substack.com/p/the-new-mrna-1010-mflusiva-injectable

    ​ FDA APPROVES MODERNA’S FIRST-EVER mRNA FLU SHOT DESPITE 75.3% ADVERSE REACTION RATE
    ​According to the FDA briefing document, severe systemic reactions were 4× MORE COMMON with the mRNA flu shot than with the traditional flu shot.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/fda-approves-modernas-first-ever

    ​ Meryl Nass MD,​ Will you receive a Moderna mRNA *flu* shot, just approved by FDA? There are many flu shots on the market, but the pharmacist will not ask for your preference.​ – Here is the skinny on flu shots. You may want to share this info with your friends and family who choose to receive them.​..mFLUSIVA is the mRNA vaccine that is probably the straw that finally led to the firing of Vinay Prasad at FDA. He refused to consider it for a license. Once he was out, it sped through an FDA review and is now available to the public for this flu season.​.
    …Addendum: It seems FDA chose one of the accelerated approval paths for mFLUSIVA. FDA needs to regulate it as gene therapy. I am wondering if a lawsuit needs to be filed about this. Probably a Citizen Petition is the first step.​ https://merylnass.substack.com/p/will-you-receive-a-moderna-mrna-flu

    ​ My project to grow a garden patch with black-eyed peas in the summer and cerial-rye from fall through spring is proceeding with dicoveries along the way, usually that everything takes more work and time than I anticipated.
    I have been harvesting pink-eye purple hull “peas” (African beans) from the patch I planted at the beginning of June, so that is working. I had one pack of Mississippi Purple Hull “peas” that I mixed in with the pound of pinkeye purple-hulls that I thought were the same.
    They are different in one important regard. They are small, not big. Shelling them dry takes at least an hour per pound, whereas the much-larger Mississippi purple-hulls are 3-4 times the size for each seed and the stock of them per hour of shelling is much more satisfying. They also seem more resistant to weevils. Both varieties have an upright growth pattern that puts the beans where you can reach them. Lots of the pinkeye variety plants are already dying, so I am taking them out as I harvest, which is pictured below. Next year I will only plant Missippippi purple-hull “peas” in this patch.

    #246970

    I’m reading a CNN article and wondering what my readers think. Not so much about the words, but about the extent to which this goes these days.

    President Donald Trump’s political stature is so poor right now that he has squandered the Republican Party’s advantage on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security…

    Is “Trump’s political stature so poor”? Not among his voters, which form half the US population plus x. So among who? CNN viewers? But nobody watches CNN?!

    #246971
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    the new definition of the region without Israel

    #246972
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Stanislav Krapivnik: Russia Just Crippled Ukraine’s Supply Lines in Odessa and Nikolaev

    #246975
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Richard Wolff & Michael Hudson: The Destruction of Modern Nations

    #246976
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #246977
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #246981
    WES
    Participant

    Out of the Woodworks:

    Doesn’t it seem strange that the msm has a flood of news reports, saying Trump should or will, walk away from the war on Iran?

    My best guess is that Trump is getting too close to winning, and the City of London/Globalists are desperately pulling out all the stops, to try and get Trump to back off now, or it is curtains for them?

    Just a contrarian thought.

    Sort of like a besieged English castle’s starving defenders, down to their last pig, when asked to surrender, caterpluted the pig over the castle’s walls at the besiegers, prompting the besiegers to pack up and go home!

    • This reply was modified 16 hours, 54 minutes ago by WES.
    #246982
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Please review and consider encouraging Trump to join BRICS

    #246984
    WES
    Participant

    Raul:

    My best guesses about CNN is they are just painting the picture they want people to believe is true.

    Like Dr. D says so often, we (msm) just make sh*t up!

    Reading CNN, is probably hazardious to one’s health!

    You should file a claim wih Workmans Compensation for a job related injury!

    #246985
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    WES writes: My best guess is that Trump is getting too close to winning, and the City of London/Globalists are desperately pulling out all the stops, to try and get Trump to back off now, or it is curtains for them?

    I write: I calculate you are wrong. I calculate Trump is Wall Street/Globalists and even successful destruction of City of London/Globalists is just one vampire killing another.

    I calculate Trump is not Nationalist American.

    I calculate Iran is Nationalist Iranian including its central bank and having nationalized its oil is fighting western financial vampires.

    #246986
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Larry Johnson: Israel Drafts Solo Iran Strike Plan If Washington Won’t Move

    #246987
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #246989
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    OIL COULD STILL EXCEED $200 THANKS TO IRAN WAR – w/ Alex Krainer

    #246990
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    The 300-Year Ponzi: Daryl Schoon on the Inevitable Collapse of Debt-Based Fiat

    https://khlfsn.substack.com/p/the-300-year-ponzi-daryl-schoon-on

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