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Debt Rattle July 15 2026

Jul 152026
 
 July 15, 2026  Posted by at 9:47 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  Add comments


Claude Monet Japanese Footbridge 2 1899(?)


• Trump Backs Off 20% Fee Plan For Hormuz (ZH)
• The US Needs to Hit Iran Harder to End the War (Victor Davis Hanson)
• Iran War 3.0 (Alastair Crooke)
• Two Ever-Widening Wars Bring World to Armageddon Moment (Paul Craig Roberts)
• UK Government Lobbied For Putting Migrants And Trans People On BANKNOTES (MN)
• Ann Widdecombe Murder was Political Assassination by Far-Left Extremist (CTH)
• Trump’s White House Front Entrance Improvements (O’Brien)
• Trump Pays E jean Carroll $5m In Damages Over Sexual Abuse And Defamation (BBC)
• Kamala Harris’s Humiliating WNBA Speech Is Painful to Watch (Margolis)
• Ro Khanna Launches Bid as Class Warrior with Expanded Wealth Tax Pledge (Turley)
• War of Words Turns Ugly After EU Migration Vote (RT)
• US House To Vote On Bill Making Daylight Savings Time Permanent (JTN)
• Bill to End Birthright Citizenship by Following Kavanaugh Roadmap (JTN)
• The Digital Euro: Control and the End of Financial Privacy (Daniel Lacalle)
• Mick Jagger Defends Elon Musk (MN)

 


 

 


 


See what fits. Trump does that in the open.

• Trump Backs Off 20% Fee Plan For Hormuz (ZH)

It’s the return of another TACO Tuesday as President Trump in a lengthy Truth Social missive appears to have reversed his plan to collect a 20% of cargo fee for international vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. “Oil is flowing like never before,” he began (except it’s not…), before writing, “Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future.” He echoed the same in follow-up with reporters at the White House:


So Gulf allies, and likely officials within his own cabinet, have talked Trump out of the 20% collection scheme idea, which would have likely in the end just shifted leverage back over to Iran, given its own much cheaper passage protocol scheme.

US OIL PARES GAINS, WTI TRADES NEAR $78/BBL

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“We did the hard work. They’re no longer a threat. We’ve taken out their 47-year, half-a-trillion-dollar military investment.”:

“They don’t ever hit Israel because Israel has announced that their response will be disproportionate and aimed at the surviving government.”

• The US Needs to Hit Iran Harder to End the War (Victor Davis Hanson)

We’re now in the 134th day of, quote-unquote, “the war with Iran.” I’m speaking on July 12. But we got to remember that we really only had March and April. We started on Feb. 28, about 38 days until we stopped fighting on April 8. So, we’re really talking about 90-plus days of negotiations and 38 days of actual fighting. That should tell us something about what the Iranian strategy is. They want to talk, talk, talk, and they do not want to fight, fight, fight. We want to fight and get over and go home, and they don’t. And they … because of the length of the negotiation vis-a-vis the kinetic part, they may be in an advantaged position.


Part of the problem is that we have knocked out at least three centers of the four of their government. The theocracy with the death of Khamenei and the disabling of his son and killing of many of the others is sort of inert. We’ve taken out a lot of the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There’s a lot of military planners that were central to Iran’s military, industrial, nuclear complex that are gone, and we have a few elected leaders. And so that’s who we’re dealing with, but we’re not sure if they are good cops and the rest of what’s left are bad cops, or if anybody’s any cop.

So, where do we go from here? What’s happening right now is we have no war and no peace. That is about every day and a half or every other day, what’s left of the bad cops—that is, the theocracy, the military, and the Guard Corps—freelance, and they hit one of the Gulf states or a tanker. Notice they don’t ever hit Israel. They don’t ever hit Israel because Israel has announced that their response will be disproportionate and aimed at the surviving government. So, they don’t do that. We haven’t said that. But every other day they do that, and now we’re starting to respond disproportionately, and that means for every 50 or so strikes, we have 120 or 130. But that itself will go on and on and on.

What we need to do is to find a way to do two things: one, stop their ability to make any strikes, and that can be accomplished in various ways. We can either stop all of their supplies, and I mean all of them. That is, we can take out their airlift capacity, their airport. We can take out all the rail lines over land to China. We can take out the Caspian Sea ports. We cannot allow any seaborne traffic into Iran. And we can take out their electrical generation plant, short out the grid, take out more. We can stop their ability to make war rather than just hunt for an individual target, a missile target or a launcher pad or something like that.

And then we have to make the conditions for which we can go home. We did the hard work. They’re no longer a threat. We’ve taken out their 47-year, half-a-trillion-dollar military investment. There’s a lot of other interests that would like the Gulf open, particularly the Gulf Council states, the Europeans, the Japanese, the Chinese, South Koreans. So, we need to make Iran so weak, if they do not want to negotiate, and we’re not going to get into this tit-for-tat cycle, that these other countries will be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

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Alastair Crooke is no fan of Trump. That’s why he sees the US losing vs Iran.

To make his point, he drags US polls and even the AI market into the equation. But what have they to do with the Iran war?

“Essentially, Trump has plunged into an escalatory trap, seemingly in part out of pique at his collapsing polls at home.”

Has anyone else seen those collapsing polls? I haven’t. Anyone?

“.. the “hurt” being experienced by Trump back home in the context of his fading political prospects, but also by his dislike for any personal humiliation.”

..”his fading political prospects”, “personal humiliation”: we’re not watching the same movie.

“A downturn in the AI market would send shockwaves throughout the entire economic ecosystem.

A market downturn in the US – exacerbated by an energy crisis – could spell disaster for Trump’s midterm hopes.”

I give up.

• Iran War 3.0 (Alastair Crooke)

When the US Navy, in co-ordination with Qatar and Oman, tried to slip a convoy of four vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, via Omani waters, last Tuesday night – rather than pass via Iran’s officially approved route – Trump may have imagined (or been told) that with the massive funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under way, that Iran would not react as the US Navy attempted to force open an American corridor. Trump however, misread the Iranian jibe – Hormuz is its “atomic weapon.” Iran will not relinquish it.


Trump insists – in clear contradiction to the terms set out in paragraph five of the MoU – that Iran has no right to interfere with any ship trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran nonetheless is acting within the terms of the agreed de-escalation framework, and has warned repeatedly that it would strike any vessel circumventing the Iranian control mechanism. Iran responded directly to Trump’s challenge to Iranian control of the Strait by striking two vessels with missiles and a third with an armed drone. A fourth Qatari-owned tanker, laden with liquefied natural gas, was set ablaze, forcing its crew to abandon the stricken vessel.

These Iranian ripostes provoked Trump to order American air strikes against Iranian targets; to reimpose sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports; and to revoke the MoU framework he had signed with what he called the “Iranian scum” – thus ending the ceasefire. “We hit them hard last night,” Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara. “We will probably hit them hard again tonight.” Trump did hit Iran again Wednesday night – even though Iran had not attacked another vessel seeking to by-pass the Iranian corridor. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Muwaffaq Al-Salti airbase in Jordan.

Vice-President Vance is saying to Iran, “If you try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the American military will respond. It’s that simple” – i.e. Iran either keeps the Strait fully open to all, or the US will keep hitting it, as it did on Tuesday night. Iran insists that it is the US that has violated the MoU and (via the spokesman for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee) warns that further attacks by the US on Iran will be met by a comprehensive all-out surprise offensive by Iran – and potentially by other options too, such as an Iranian withdrawal from the NPT, changing the country’s nuclear doctrine, and closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the Strait of Hormuz.

So, Vice-President Vance is saying if Iran restricts Hormuz (i.e. it stays open to friendly states’ vessels) the US will escalate. And Iran is responding to this threat by warning that it will escalate militarily – two strikes for every one American strike – and that they may also turn to new doctrines of warfare. Essentially, Trump has plunged into an escalatory trap, seemingly in part out of pique at his collapsing polls at home. He did, however, directly put himself in this situation by trying to “act cute” during the Khamenei funeral pre-occupations in order to try to gain a “quick win.”

How long will this escalatory episode last? Certainly, it will not lead to the opening of the Strait; nor bring a return of the status quo ante that preceded the war. As long as Iran maintains its ability to exert control over Hormuz, there is no basis to assume that the situation will return to what it was. On the contrary, and more likely, the crisis will accelerate the onset of looming global economic crisis that could last until the economic pain becomes acute, as the drawdown on sour crude continues – and as the effects on the real economy in the West become visible. With shortages of munitions and the drawdown on air assets from the Middle East already beginning, Trump probably lacks the wherewithal to go full “Iran War 3.0.”

[..] It is not certain that this new US policy will work. The world is changing rapidly. Their expected triumph of Israel over the Middle East has resulted in failure. Trump’s MoU ploy to open Hormuz likely will fail, too. The connected war on Russia and the siege of China are faltering too – and Israel’s (until now unassailable) hold over the US is in question too. A senior US democrat, Rahm Emanuel, and potential 2028 US Democratic presidential candidate, spoke in Israel yesterday; he warned in no uncertain terms that Israel “has lost the world’s support, become a ‘regional pariah,’ [and that its] alliance with the US is ‘at a crossroads’.”

And finally, a “black swan” now can be observed swimming in increasingly sunlit waters – Eric Katz writing in Notus writes that, “a draft report inside the US Treasury Department is set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market, likening key aspects of it to the dotcom bubble that upended the US economy when it burst in the early 2000s.” Treasury analysts wrote – “Career Treasury analysts found that AI firms are more deeply entrenched in the US economy than their dotcom predecessors and pose significant risk to the entire system if financial conditions change, productivity goals are missed or various choke points stymie growth.”

A downturn in the AI market would send shockwaves throughout the entire economic ecosystem. A market downturn in the US – exacerbated by an energy crisis – could spell disaster for Trump’s midterm hopes.

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Over the top: “Never in history has a country’s leader displayed such refusal to recognize an existential threat.”

“..In my thinking at this time, the world without its wish is heading into two big wars.

• Two Ever-Widening Wars Bring World to Armageddon Moment (Paul Craig Roberts)

“Russia open to Turkey selling S-400 air defense systems to UAE, sources say” “The Russian government views the potential sale of S-400 air defense systems currently operated by Turkey to the United Arab Emirates in a “positive light”, multiple sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye, while cautioning that negotiations have yet to be completed.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirms that the Kremlin is discussing with Turkey the transfer of the S-400 Russian air defense system to Iran’s enemies. This shows you what a piece of shit ally Russia is. Money comes first and nothing else matters. Helmer quotes a Russian source:


” I expect no limits to what the Kremlin will stoop in their money-making now. You can expect, a year from now, Russian S-400s and 500s will be sold direct to the Emiratis and Saudis. No doubt about it. Strictly speaking, the Turks do not have to do a resale. They will say they are giving military defensive cover, jointly with Europe and the US, to the Arabs; the Russians will go along with that.” My understanding is that the operative range of the S-400 covers the entire Persian Gulf and likely Israel and Jordan as well. In other words, the S-400 completely disarms Iran.

Here is my speculation about how this surprising deal is being put together. When Turkey purchased the S-400, a purchase that is inexplicable. Why would the Kremlin deliver the technology of the world standard–the S-400–to a member of NATO? Is the answer the stupid Kremlin chasing money at the cost of Russia’s existence? Helmer’s sources think so. Or was it an ill-conceived plot to bribe Turkey away from NATO into Russia’s orbit? If so, it did not work.

Putin has needlessly, gratuitously, left Russia mired in a 4.5 year old conflict that due to Putin’s irresolution and prevarication has moved from Donbas to deep inside Russia. Putin now faces state-of-the-art drones produced in Germany and transported without Russian interference to Ukraine where they are guided by US targeting systems into attacks on Russian refineries and fuel storage. Russia has been sufficiently damaged that Russia now must import diesel fuel. Putin pretends that this is not war, merely a terrorist operation. Never in history has a country’s leader displayed such refusal to recognize an existential threat.

Putin has been trying to stay afloat by riding two contending horses. One is the horse of the Russian military and patriotic citizens. The other horse is the horse of the Russian oligarchs whose wealth was stolen from the state during the period of the Soviet collapse. My solution, which I presented to the Soviet Union in its last year was not followed, and a few seized the wealth of the country. Those who stole Russia’s wealth were the West’s allies against Russia from day one. And these pro-American, not pro-Russian, interests are 50% of the advice that the Kremlin receives.

Here is what is what is happening. Krill Dmitriev has told Putin that the more the Kremlin sucks up to Trump, the more likely the Ukrainian Conflict will be reconciled by mutually profitable business deals, which is the aim of the Russian Oligarchs. The point was made to Putin that protecting Israel and the American Gulf states that host the US attacks on Iran from attack by Iranian missiles wins brownie points that can free Russia from the sanctions on its oligarchs..

Where does all this go? In my thinking at this time, the world without its wish is heading into two big wars. All of humanity will be destroyed. No where in the governments of the world is there any capability to comprehend the reality that confronts them. Each dumbshit government has its own narrative, and none of them are correct. Where are the leaders of humanity? Why are there none?

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Ungovernable. You can’t make plans like this and then move on.

• UK Government Lobbied For Putting Migrants And Trans People On BANKNOTES (MN)

The UK’s own Cabinet Office pushed hard to overhaul banknotes by elevating LGBT+ and ethnic minority figures, claiming historic greats like Winston Churchill gave an “incomplete picture” of British identity. This push came just before the Bank of England decided to ditch those same towering historical figures for images of hedgehogs and foxes. This latest revelation exposes the ideological machinery at work inside Whitehall. While the public recoiled at the idea of swapping national heroes for animals, government officials were actively lobbying for even more radical identity-driven changes.


In a letter to the Bank of England’s chief cashier last summer, officials from the Office for Equality and Opportunity – part of the Cabinet Office and led by Bridget Phillipson – argued that current historical figures reflected “limited dimensions of British identity.” They called for “greater representation of women, disabled people, ethnic minority communities and LGBT+ individuals” to “send a strong signal of progress and recognition.”

The whole saga is particularly ridiculous because the core argument for axing Churchill and other giants was that they were supposedly too “ideologically divisive” for modern Britain. Yet officials simultaneously pushed to install figures selected explicitly through the lens of identity politics and group representation – an approach guaranteed to be far more polarizing in practice. It reveals the selective outrage: traditional British heroes are labeled divisive for their achievements, while injecting contemporary activism onto the currency is framed as unifying “progress.”

The intervention has sparked accusations that Labour elements conspired to sideline Britain’s most celebrated figures. Shadow minister Alex Burghart slammed the move: “Labour tried to deny any involvement in the cancellation of Winston Churchill and other British heroes. But government officials have been caught red-handed conspiring with the Bank of England to remove them from our banknotes.” He added that banknotes “should feature the greatest Britons – the historic figures that unite our country. They shouldn’t be chosen on the basis of Labour’s equality laws.”

This diversity drive unfolded alongside the Bank of England’s decision to replace Churchill on the £5 note, Jane Austen on the £10, J.M.W. Turner on the £20, and Alan Turing on the £50 with images of British animals, plants, and landscapes. The Bank cited a public consultation where a majority favored nature themes, partly for security reasons on new polymer notes. Critics have pointed out the irony, noting Alan Turing – a gay war hero – was already featured, yet the push continued for broader “under-represented” groups. Suggestions reportedly included figures tied to events like the Empire Windrush. This fits a longer pattern of institutional discomfort with Britain’s historic icons. Our earlier coverage highlighted the absurdity of trading Churchill for hedgehogs and the broader erosion of national symbols.

A serious nation honors the leaders who defended its freedom and shaped its character – not because they tick modern demographic boxes, but because their achievements built the country whose currency circulates today. Swapping out the likes of Churchill for foxes and badgers, while civil servants agitate for identity politics on money, signals a profound loss of confidence. Britain’s history is not a problem to be diluted. It is the foundation worth preserving.

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Pay attention Britain.

“.. the reality was her murderer drove over five hours to kill her. “

• Ann Widdecombe Murder was Political Assassination by Far-Left Extremist (CTH)

78-year-old Ann Widdecombe was a well-known conservative in British politics. She was a staunch defender of free speech, a direct opponent to leftist cultural Marxism and an advocate for the commonsense Reform Party. Widdecombe was against abortion, gay rights, transgender advocacy and wokism writ large. Ms. Widdecombe was beaten to death in her home Wednesday July 8th around 12:30pm by an assailant who drove 270 miles to kill her. Immediately the police said her murder was not politically motivated and not connected to foreign or domestic terrorism.


Despite the credulous claim that her brutal murder was not political in nature, the reality was her murderer drove over five hours to kill her. This was an obvious premeditated, calculated and targeted murder. However, the politically correct leftist media and political institutions within U.K. government, were desperate in trying to deny the obvious. Yesterday, the British Counterterrorism Police took over the investigation. “Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, said that as a result of “new information and evidence,” specialist counterterrorism officers were “now leading on the investigation into the horrific murder.”” {citation} Today, it is admitted that her killer had a library of communist and Marxist ideology.


(DAILY MAIL) – […] Yesterday the probe was taken over by Counterterrorism Policing South East which announced the suspect had been re-arrested on suspicion of commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism. The suspect, who remains in custody, was the son of a teaching assistant. Relatives said he had become reclusive after the sudden death of his engineer father last year. […] In a dramatic escalation, counter terrorism officers yesterday took over the investigation into the killing of the former Tory minister. It came after the discovery of Russian communist literature and other items of political ideology at the home of the suspected killer. […] Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed yesterday that the British white suspect, who the Mail is not naming, was not known to the Government’s deradicalisation programme, Prevent. Police are making inquiries about his mental health. (more)

Leftism is a violently dangerous ideology. Those who believe in Diversity, Equity, Inclusion as well as cultural rights and genderisms are intolerant in the extreme. Their ideological arguments do not stand up against scrutiny, natural laws or historic outcomes. As a result, their emotions drive the internal sense of self-hate outward to attack others. These are deeply disturbed, emotionally unstable people. Democrats, Socialists, Communists writ large are extremely dangerous once they achieve power. The larger the population they control or target, the larger the killing field.

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“Trump the builder has looked at our nation’s capital and its iconic landmarks with a critical eye..”

• Trump’s White House Front Entrance Improvements (O’Brien)

Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) tends to enter the ludicrous stage for its sufferers most quickly when President Donald Trump wants to do something that’s inarguably good, mostly to the benefit of future administrations and future generations of visitors to Washington, D.C. Trump the builder has looked at our nation’s capital and its iconic landmarks with a critical eye ever since he took up residence in the White House in 2017. So, in his second term, he’s decided to do something about the problems he’s seen simply by fixing things up. Seriously, who can argue with that? The left, the Democrats, and the legacy media can, that’s who.


My colleague David Manney covered earlier iterations of this issue. And so, we’ve become all too familiar with the ludicrousness the left compulsively dishes up every time the Trump administration tackles another improvement project. The left is now so predictable and so fake about its outrage, it should come as no surprise that, with Trump setting his sights on the front door to the White House, the left would pretend to have a meltdown.

First, let’s take a look at the project, which was specifically prompted by a request from the U.S. Secret Service (USSS). The federal agency has wanted to bolster the front entrance to the White House with “security-focused upgrades” in a project that is expected to take months to complete, CNN has reported. The front entrance to the White House is at the North Portico of the building.

As much as you know CNN wanted to outright blame Trump for every facet of this story and spin it all into a negative, the cable news network said on its website, “The changes, which sources said have long been advocated by the US Secret Service, are aimed at fortifying the White House entrance at the North Portico, which has recently been obscured by scaffolding and a tarp as workers repair the exterior columns at President Donald Trump’s request… But unlike many of Trump’s projects around the White House — from hanging gold signage to paving the Rose Garden — the work on the front door is not cosmetic, and instead focused on enhancing its security, the White House official said.”

CNN further reported that in addition to the front entrance, security fencing is planned for Lafayette Park, “which surrounds the north side of the White House.” Keep in mind, the White House grounds are already fenced off and have several layers of intense security, some that you can see, most that you cannot. Reports are that the USSS, not the president, want to better secure the park so that when there are “presidential movements,” they don’t have to continually erect temporary security barriers. The goal, CNN reported, was to arrive at “a more permanent solution to the existing patchwork of temporary barricades, what officials describe as ‘comprehensive yet flexible fencing strategy for varying security risk.’ The permanent fencing is meant to make it easier to shut down the road when needed.”

The administration is going through all of the proper channels in deciding on the fencing, which means a proposal has been sent by the USSS, the White House, and the Department of Interior to the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts. That commission will look at the proposal with an eye towards the aesthetic and with historic preservation standards in mind. So, how is the left taking it? Well, Trump is turning Washington into a police state, of course.

The Lincoln Project decided to channel its TDS by using the USSS’s requested security upgrades as proof that Trump wants to be president for life.

On both the fencing story and the front door story, even though it’s clear that the USSS is behind the major changes, someone in the Democrats’ spin room has come up with the “never leaving” theme.

I happen to agree with the left here. Why is the USSS making such a big deal about security around the White House? It’s not like anything bad ever happens around there or could even happen. Just one more conservative conspiracy theory, I think.

Well, OK, there was the time leftists literally tried to breech the White House security perimeter and burn the White House down, but if Trump wasn’t president at the time, they wouldn’t have had to do it. In fact, he made them do it. And they were just peaceful protests, anyway.

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This is so bad, it makes you fear for America. New York hates Trump.

• Trump Pays E jean Carroll $5m In Damages Over Sexual Abuse And Defamation (BBC)

US President Donald Trump has paid writer E Jean Carroll more than $5m (£3.7m) in damages three years after he was found liable for sexually abusing and defaming her in a civil case, her lawyers confirmed. “Today, we are pleased to report that she has received the damages payment the jury awarded her as a result of that verdict,” Roberta Kaplan, a lawyer for Carroll, said in a short statement on Tuesday. Trump was pushing to delay the payment, in order to ask the Supreme Court to reconsider its decision not to hear his appeal of the case. But last week, the judge overseeing the case ordered him to pay the damages.


A representative from Trump’s legal team declined to comment on the payment. A statement from Carroll’s legal team confirmed that she had been paid more than $5.62m – the $5m awarded in damages plus the interest accrued during the appeal. Carroll, a former magazine columnist who is now 82, accused Trump of attacking her in the mid-1990s in a Bergdorf Goodman department store dressing room in Manhattan, and later defaming her on his Truth Social website in a 2022 post denying her allegations. In 2023, a New York jury unanimously awarded Carroll the damages over her claim. Trump denied the allegations.

Trump put the damages into a court-controlled account shortly after the verdict, and it was held there while the appeals process played out. Lawyers for Trump decried the judge’s ruling that he must pay, calling the case a “hoax” and “Witch Hunt” which they alleged had been funded by Democrats. Trump has repeatedly alleged that Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the civil trial, improperly admitted evidence that prejudiced the jury against him. A federal appeals court agreed with the jury’s verdict last year and said Kaplan did not make errors that would warrant a new trial.

The Supreme Court last month declined Trump’s request to consider the case, clearing the way for the money to be paid to Carroll.Carroll cheered the ruling at the time, writing on her Substack blog: “WE WON!” “THIS WIN IS FOR EVERY WOMAN IN THE WORLD!” Carroll wrote. Trump has also appealed against another jury’s decision in 2024 finding the president liable for defaming Carroll in a separate instance and awarding her nearly $84m. A panel of federal judges denied his appeal last year.

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Why do they keep her around?

• Kamala Harris’s Humiliating WNBA Speech Is Painful to Watch (Margolis)

Did you know that Former Vice President Kamala Harris is a fan of the WNBA? Okay, she probably couldn’t name more than a couple of teams if you quizzed her, even if she studied all night, but the takeaway here is that she went to a game on Sunday and was given the opportunity to speak to the Los Angeles Sparks (that’s one of the teams) after the game. And it was bad. Following the Sparks’ 102-87 win over the Chicago Sky, Kamala made her way to the team’s locker room to share a few words with the players. In her brief remarks, she praised the growth the WNBA has seen in recent years (though she didn’t thank Caitlin Clark) and congratulated the team, not just for the win, but for what she called the players’ broader impact.


“You are having an incredible impact. I travel our country; young girls, boys, people of every gender, background, race, watch the W and understand how inspiring it is,” Kamala said in her speech.Every gender? Good lord, how many different leagues will the NBA have to subsidize now? “So keep doing what you’re doing,” Kamala continued. “You guys are impacting people who you will never meet, people who may never know your name or mine, but they are aware of what you are doing. And it is giving them a sense of their value and their dignity and what they have a right to expect from this world. So, congratulations on this game, but congratulations, as much as anything else, for the path you guys are charting. It is extraordinary to watch.”

It’s a good thing she waited until after the final buzzer to say any of that. Imagine trying to run out for tip-off after hearing your “impact” summarized in a sentence that long. The Sparks might have lost by 30. To put it mildly, Kamala has never been known for her oratory skills or deep insight. She has a reputation for being a vacuous moron, and this speech (if you even want to call it that) did nothing to change it. She is about as exciting and uplifting as a can opener, and she still found a way to underperform even that. Emily Compagno tore into the speech Monday night on The Five, and she didn’t hold back.

“I feel like there should be a global policy against having her anywhere near a locker room pregame,” Compagno said on The Five. “Because I can think of nothing more deflating than listening to her and what she has to say. Sophie Cunningham did more for the WNBA in her two seconds of being a ring girl at the UFC fight, which was so explosive and awesome, than the vice president. I feel sorry for those women who are actually seeking any type of inspiration from her.” As Compagno went in, the Fox News chyron running at the bottom of the screen did some of the work for her. It read “Kamala Airballs Her WNBA Speech,” which is the kind of headline you can’t buy and definitely can’t spin.

“But we’re not surprised by this,” Compagno said. “And the unfortunate part to me is that she is still being enlisted as somehow a mouthpiece of the Democrat Party. She continues to flop in all of her speeches. I think fundraising continues to work, which surprises me. But I love this chyron so much, because she just whiffs every single time. I don’t understand why. The fact that her speeches — that lack substance, both in policy and actual ignition — continue to be spread throughout.”

“Whiffs” is generous. Kamala has had years, an entire presidential campaign, and a vice presidency to figure out how to talk to a room and inspire someone beyond her own ego.

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The Democratic Party is one big vacancy. Cue the likes of Ro.

• Ro Khanna Launches Bid as Class Warrior with Expanded Wealth Tax Pledge (Turley)

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) just moved to outbid his Democratic colleagues in the presidential auction. With the radical left sweeping away establishment figures in favor of socialists, various prospective presidential candidates are offering up key institutions in their effort to appease the mob. The Supreme Court has been the starting bid. Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro have yielded to the mob and embraced court packing. Khanna is not to be outdone. After his disastrous campaigning for Graham Platner, Khanna is returning to a sure winner: Class warfare.


Last week, Khanna confirmed that the “billionaire tax” is just the start and that they will go on to target the wealth of other citizens as an untapped resource of new revenue. For years, some of us have warned that the billionaire tax was a ruse. Sponsors like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Khanna were using billionaires as an easy political target, but they were unlikely to stop there. The challenge is to get the tax through the courts, which is why it is so essential to pack the court. Warren notably was an early advocate of both changes. I discuss the tax in my book “Rage and the Republic” as an example of the “eat-the-rich” politics used by demagogues from ancient Athens to the French Revolution.

Politicians seek to divide a population into “haves” and “have-nots” with the promise that citizens could have it all if only they are given back power. Warren tried to use the tax to restart her moribund 2020 presidential campaign. During one debate, she dramatically told the rich she was coming after “your Rembrandts, your stock portfolio, your diamonds and your yachts.” She thrilled the crowd by greedily rubbing her hands together after saying she would take some of the wealth of fellow candidate John Delaney, a self-made millionaire.

The problem is that a federal billionaire tax (which is distinct from California’s billionaire tax that will be on the upcoming state ballot) is, in my view, completely unconstitutional. The federal government secured the right to tax individuals in 1913, but the 16th Amendment only approved income taxes. As made clear by Warren, Democrats want to tax people for the things that they bought after paying their taxes from homes to art to boats. If they can pack the Court and greenlight a billionaire tax, there would be no limit to then moving the threshold wealth level downward. Once that Rubicon is crossed, Democrats would suddenly be able to tax trillions in the property and possessions of citizens.

That is precisely what Khanna finally admitted last week in a Substack post, arguing that “the tax should not stop at billionaires; it must reach centimillionaires. The tax has to reach all fortunes $50 million and up.” The wealth tax is the closest this country has come to an open redistribution-of-wealth effort, a core agenda item for the rising socialist movement. Other countries such as France tried wealth taxes with disastrous results. Not only did it fail to generate the expected revenue (the wealth left the country en masse), but it also had to be rescinded. In Norway, the government kept reducing the level of targeted assets to six-figure thresholds.

The national tax is meant to address the growing disaster in California, which has reportedly lost trillions as the wealthy flee the high-tax state. Khanna and other Democrats hope to give the wealth nowhere to flee by taking this “hunt-the-rich” effort national. In making this pitch, Khanna is trying to achieve the political stunt of the century. Khanna is reportedly worth roughly half a billion dollars thanks to his wife’s inheritance. He is not alone among the super wealthy Democrats declaring themselves the champions of the proletariat.

After all, there’s Illinois Gov. Jay Robert “JB” Pritzker, who also inherited his fortune. In a July interview with CNN, Pritzker virtually begged the mob that he is a different kind of billionaire, pointing at Trump billionaires as the rightful targets (not him with $4.3 billion). Others found themselves on the wrong side of the mob. Rep. Dan Goldman, who inherited a massive fortune of almost $300 million as a trust baby, unwisely promised to help subsidize his congressional reelection campaign from his family fortune. Goldman fell flat with the socialist and increasingly antisemitic base — and was crushed by over 30 points.

Khanna hopes to stay ahead of that mob by leading it to the homes of other wealthy citizens. As for California, the state is already showing how class warfare does not quite work if the upper classes simply leave with their wealth, businesses and jobs.

Read more …

“A Swedish MEP has filed criminal charges after a Danish colleague told her to “go home” in a social media post..”

• War of Words Turns Ugly After EU Migration Vote (RT)

A dispute over an immigration bill passed by the European Parliament has escalated into a criminal complaint, with a Swedish MEP accusing a Danish colleague of racist hate speech over a social media comment, The Guardian reported on Monday. A Swedish MEP of Iraqi descent, Abir Al-Sahlani, filed the complaint with Swedish police against Danish MEP Kristoffer Storm. He told her to “go home” in response to her post criticizing anti-immigration chants that followed the passage of a law aimed at speeding up the deportation of illegal migrants. She has also lodged a formal complaint with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.


The dispute stems from last month’s approval of the Return Regulation, the toughest anti-immigration legislation passed by the EU in recent years. The measure allows member states to establish ‘return hubs’ outside the bloc to accelerate the deportation of illegal migrants. After the vote, chants of “send them back!” erupted in the chamber. In a speech condemning the outburst, Al-Sahlani called it “a new low level, even for the fascists on the far right.”

“I have never felt as unsafe in this parliament as after the voting about the Return Regulation, because the shouting of the far right was not against the political opponent… It was about ordinary people who did no other crime than looking for a better life in Europe,” she said. Storm rejected accusations that his response online was racist. Speaking to Politico, he said the phrase “go home” referred to leaving the parliamentary chamber, arguing that if Al-Sahlani found the democratic decision and lawmakers’ reactions so upsetting, “she would have been better off leaving the chamber.”

The clash comes amid growing tensions over migration across the EU. According to Eurostat, the bloc received more than 8.5 million immigrants from outside the bloc in 2023 and 2024, and immigration remains one of the most divisive issues in European politics. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump claimed that European countries had deteriorated to the status of “Third World countries” because of their immigration policies.

Read more …

We can talk about it for years. Occupational therapy.

• US House To Vote On Bill Making Daylight Savings Time Permanent (JTN)

The U.S. House will vote this week on a bill making daylight savings time permanent, despite warnings from medical, education and safety organizations. The Sunshine Protection Act of 2025, which would end the nearly nationwide biannual clock changing and make daylight savings time permanent year-round, advanced out of committee Monday afternoon. States that use standard time year-round – currently only Arizona and Hawaii – before the law goes into effect wouldn’t have to change.


House Energy and Commerce Committee ranking member Frank Pallone, D-N.J., testified in support of the bill, which Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., introduced. Pallone argued that changing the clocks every year is widely unpopular with Americans and that making daylight savings time permanent would boost the tourism industry. n“The real question is, why do we still change our clocks?,” Pallone said. “It’s getting harder and harder to justify.” Besides the U.S. tourism industry, retail and golfing industries have long lobbied Congress to permanently set the clocks an hour ahead.

“Our industry is uniquely tied to daylight, and the number of playable hours directly affects the number of rounds we can offer, the staff we employ, and the revenue we generate, especially in the late afternoon and early evening,” National Golf Course Owners Association CEO Jay Karen told lawmakers in 2025. bWe ask the Senate to consider the practical and economic consequences of losing evening daylight.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Retail Federation, National Association of Convenience Stores, the American Farm Bureau Federation and others have expressed support for making daylight savings time permanent.

But medical professionals, education advocates and safety professionals overwhelmingly support making standard time permanent instead. “By artificially shifting the clock time an hour forward, daylight saving time causes a misalignment between clock time and solar time, interfering with our circadian timing and resulting in a condition known as ‘social jet lag,’’ the American Academy of Sleep Medicine stated in its opposition to the bill. “This condition is associated with an increased risk of obesity, metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease, and depression. If daylight saving time becomes permanent, then Americans will be living with social jet lag year-round.”

The American Medical Association, American College of Occupational Medicine, National Sleep Foundation, American Federation of Teachers, National School Boards Association, National Safety Council, and dozens of other organizations have endorsed permanent standard time. Congress tried to implement permanent daylight savings time in the 1970s. The two-year trial lasted less than a year, however — in a 1974 speech on the Senate floor, the former U.S. senator for Kansas Bob Dole said the change “is a classic example of the Congress legislating blindfolded”

“It has caused great inconvenience and in some cases hazard. It appears to me that the better part of wisdom might be outright repeal,” Dole said. “After spending the first 3 weeks of winter daylight time in Kansas, I became more convinced than ever that its hardships, inconvenience, and real hazards are too great to justify its continuation.” If the Sunshine Protection Act does pass the House on Tuesday, its future in the Senate is uncertain as it will need at least 60 votes to pass.

Read more …

Birthright Citizenship is 150 or so years old. It’s old. Nobody else has it. There are no slaves anymore.

• Bill to End Birthright Citizenship by Following Kavanaugh Roadmap (JTN)

Indiana Republican Sen. Jim Banks introduced legislation Monday that seeks to end birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants by labeling them as children of “invaders” under federal law. The legislation was inspired by a roadmap suggested by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh last month following a ruling that determined President Donald Trump’s executive order limiting automatic citizenship for certain individuals born in the United States violated the 14th Amendment.


Kavanaugh wrote a separate concurring opinion that stated that although the president’s order had conflicted with federal birthright citizenship law, Congress could amend the statute to create new exceptions, according to Fox News. Banks’ legislation would codify Trump’s 2025 executive order declaring illegal migration across the southern border an “invasion,” and change the Immigration and Nationality Act to exclude children of such “invaders.” The senator’s “Citizenship Act” legislation reads: “Any person who enters the United States without authorization or for the purpose of engaging in birth tourism is considered an invader.”

Despite the Supreme Court’s ruling, Trump has not given up hope that his attempt to end birthright citizenship could pass and he has called for the high court to have a rehearing on the issue. Rehearings are not unprecedented but extremely rare. “The Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship decision was an unprecedented assault on American sovereignty, and we must do whatever it takes to save our country,” Banks told Fox News. “I’m leading the Citizenship Act to reverse the effects of this consequential ruling and ensure the millions of illegal aliens that invaded our country can’t continue to exploit our immigration system.”

Read more …

It’s about control, plain and simple.

• The Digital Euro: Control and the End of Financial Privacy (Daniel Lacalle)

European Union lawmakers in Strasbourg have now agreed on their position regarding the digital euro, approving it in a vote on the 8th of July 2026. With this position, the European Parliament can start talks with national governments on the details of the design and functioning of the digital euro.


The ECB argues that the digital euro is required to preserve the benefits of cash in a digital age and protect Europe’s monetary sovereignty, while offering a fast, secure, widely accepted public means of payment. However, it is not a neutral or purely technological upgrade to Europe’s payments infrastructure. It is a political and technological project that may embed surveillance, monetary control, and fiscal dominance into the very structure of the currency.

EU lawmakers are now debating the regulation that will define the legal status, privacy framework, and holding limits of the digital euro, with the ECB openly lobbying for strong legislation to support what it calls a collective step forward for Europe. This means the most significant features, including programmability, limits, data access, and the role of commercial banks, will be decided in Brussels and Strasbourg rather than by markets or citizen demand.

The ECB sells the digital euro on four main promises: more efficient payments, greater monetary sovereignty, financial inclusion, and higher privacy than current private electronic payment systems. Not one of those claims holds up once you look at them, even briefly.

Read more …

The article says the interviewer is annoyed. I see none of that. Jagger makes sense.

• Mick Jagger Defends Elon Musk (MN)

Mick Jagger just delivered a masterclass in cutting through media spin, leaving a leftist New York Times podcaster visibly rattled as he clarified that his “mad mogul” lyric about Elon Musk was actually a compliment. The Rolling Stones legend refused to play along with the expected narrative during the interview, pushing back firmly when the host, David Marchese, presumed the line was a diss. Instead, Jagger highlighted Musk’s real-world achievements in space, crediting him with stepping up where government agencies have fallen short.

In the exchange, Jagger explained the context behind the lyric from the new Rolling Stones album Foreign Tongues. He pointed to the rescue of the stranded NASA astronauts last year, noting that Musk’s SpaceXprovided the transportation NASA couldn’t. ]Jagger told the interviewer: “It’s not nagging, but people hear one word and they don’t really listen to the line. So it’s like, ‘Mick Jagger has a go at Elon Musk.’ You’re not listening to the line, you’re only listening to ‘Musk.’ … even though I do call him mad.”

Marchese’s expression totally changed from smiling to frowning in an instant when Jagger refused to confirm the interviewer’s gleeful expectation that the singer would criticise Musk. He continued: “When I wrote that, I was thinking that because of him, they were able to get those astronauts back that were stuck because he provided the transportation because NASA couldn’t provide the transportation…” “Who would you trust to get you into space?” Jagger continued, adding “Would you trust Boeing or would you trust NASA or would you trust mad mogul Mr. Musk? It’s really a side-winding compliment because he was the one I remembered was able to do that when the others couldn’t.”

Jagger exposed how Marchese had completely misinterpreted the lyrics of the song, making him look foolish.The podcaster pressed on, noting Musk was the only person named on the album, implying significance. Jagger stood his ground, adding that “mogul doesn’t always go down well, either,” and the host again showed how one dimensional he is by suggesting “No one likes a mogul.” Jagger was clearly exhausted with the exchange as Marchese simply refused to understand what the singer was getting at.

In another recent NYT interview, Jagger contrasted his approach to performing live with Bruce Springsteen’s rabid anti-Trump activism, emphasizing that his job is to give fans a great time, not sermonize. Jagger’s nuanced expression underscores a refreshing independence in an industry often dominated by predictable elite consensus, and his clarity cuts against the grain of performative outrage. Moments like this expose the disconnect between coastal media bubbles and ground-level realities.

The Rolling Stones continue to prove their enduring relevance not by chasing trends, but by staying true to a no-nonsense ethos that prioritizes delivery over dogma. Jagger’s unapologetic take serves as a subtle rebuke to those who weaponize art for division rather than unity through great music and honest reflection. Jagger gets it – focus on what works, entertain the audience, and let results speak louder than spin. In a free society, that kind of straight talk is exactly what keeps culture vibrant against efforts to enforce conformity.

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Home › Forums › Debt Rattle July 15 2026

Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
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  • July 15, 2026 at 9:47 am #244876
    Raúl Ilargi Meijer
    Keymaster

    Claude Monet Japanese Footbridge 2 1899(?) • Trump Backs Off 20% Fee Plan For Hormuz (ZH) • The US Needs to Hit Iran Harder to End the War (Victor Dav
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle July 15 2026]

    July 15, 2026 at 10:20 am #244904
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Sort of yesterday, Mamdani rent going straight up, 8%, national rent and housing costs slowly creeping down. Just like gas prices. So…headlines, right? NYTimes is all over this one. We’re saved!

    Yeah, no. If you hadn’t guessed. And you sure not saved if you’re in any Blue area coast to coast! They are keeping rents and housing high and refusing Federal money to start businesses. Thanks government! You’re the bestest!

    “• American Democracy Has Proven Itself to Be a Fraud (Paul Craig Roberts)

    Yes, but sadly and amazingly we are still the least bad! Holy smokes! What are the rest of you knuckleheads doing? Particularly the hand grenade and/or the Eugenics capitals of the world? The U.S. does this, and it’s been bad many times before – worse than now! Impossible as that may be to believe – but we TRY TO FIX THINGS. That’s it. That’s the magic. We TALK about it, admit it, discuss it, then try to get better. Such Wow.

    “• Lindsey Graham Was A Monster, But Not Exceptional (Amar)

    That’s for sure. Thankfully he’s been getting steadily more rare.

    ““You are the highest ranking gay public policy officeholder… “ (Bessant)

    The Left only cares where people’s pee-pee goes. That’s what makes them saints or monsters. Ummm. Creepy and disturbing much? Leave my pee-pee out of this discussion, thanks. The Right does too? When was the last time? The 1990s? 30 years ago? Exhibit A: I Present to you, Scott Bessant. Big Gay Patton to you sir.

    Antarctica: If an entire continent the size of North America is cooler, that’s neither evidence nor news.

    No doubt like population, if it’s higher we’re all going to die; but if it’s lower we’re all going to die too! Government, please help! Raise my taxes! There’s nothing higher taxes or murdering a few thousand people can’t fix!

    “IRGC Vows ‘Not A Drop Of Oil & Gas Will Be Exported’ From Region Amid Sustained Cross-Gulf Fighting

    I mean, except for the 175 ships. AND all the Chinese ships. AND all the former Venezuelan ships. AND…

    Oh and all the pipelines that go everywhere and will be finished shortly. And… What they really mean is is no IRANIAN oil will be leaving the region, while Qatar, UAE, Saudi, Iraq, Turkey, and Bahrain are all fine.

    “Jack Smith’s Team Spied On 44 Lawmakers’ Texts, Built A Case On Them, And Misled Congress: Grassley

    Holy. Wow.

    Should Congress at least be annoyed by this? Maybe? It’s only been since 9-12 and the “Let’s spy on everyone or else send them powder from Ft Deitrick” day.

    “New York’s Millionaire Exodus Is Costing Billions In Lost Revenue
    “In New York, the top 1% of earners pay about 45% of all state income taxes in any given year…”

    I for one say that’s not enough. We’re not done until the departure of ANY millionaire collapses the entire budget. …As it did in New Jersey.

    “Sheriff Says Somali Youth Gangs Are Running Wild In Minneapolis

    You can just remove the word “Somali”. I don’t care. Blue cities always love drugs, crime, and violence. Always have. They hate poor and colored people like cancer; as you notice none of the NICE Blue areas have this problem: they are policed fine. Only the poor and working districts. Yay!

    If this is “Just a thing” why are Red Cities and areas not (as) susceptible to it?

    Like this: “footage from Northern Ireland captures police sprinting past a group of knife- and stick-wielding feral youths to cuff a local man who had grabbed a stick to protect the native women and children in his street.”

    Police exist to protect YOU from US. They exist to help criminals and are doing a stellar job. All blue cities have to do is nothing, actually. Inform the public they are free to defend themselves, we’ll clean up the bodies since that’s all they respond to anyways. In six months, the criminals will be gone and the remaining ones much better behaved.

    “Did The AI Bubble Just Burst This Week?

    Maybe. And other nations seem to have made up this bubble as the lever to pop and drop us, but the market hasn’t been rational since I don’t know when. It’s definitely a bubble and maybe the biggest, from Day 1. But the level of interventions is almost impossible to measure.

    Helga LaRouche showing that the Germans really DO have no understanding of humor. That’s just as funny as always.

    And day after day, Trump now says “You’re not getting anything for free, no weapons for your war, and I’m shutting off your oil too.” Fight the war now, you p—ks. Trump is the Prime warmonger who shuts off weapons swapping for factories that will never be built and bombed in days if they were.

    You can tell they have nothing to say as both articles go long on adjectives, pejorative slander, and short on facts or understanding. Brain stoppers. Skim skim skim.

    “The sort of person who insists that his facts should come in popularly advertised brand-labeled packages should not expose himself to the mental anguish he will suffer in confronting even the simple day-to-day truths of routine counterintelligence work. On this level, the world is very complicated; in this realm, there are few allies, and almost no one operates openly under the brand label of the one, two, or three interests he ultimately serves.”

    If only they followed their own advice. They call Trump being sarcastic 5D chess and that’s it’s a conspiracy theory. It’s 1D chess, mostly. If you just accurately accounted all the 1D chess, we could discuss the possibles far more coherently. “I shut off your oil and removed all my troops from the area” isn’t 5D chess.

    “the region has witnessed a return to full-scale US-Iran war, “

    It would seem the US identified the hub of the missiles and IRGC bunker on the coast, just as desired. It appears a 5,000lb bunker buster was dropped on it, lighting off all the other weapons and rocket fuel. The U.S. was not similarly attacked. This is 1D chess again: you shoot missiles at random ships who are in Omani waters, and the U.S. blows up wherever they came from. So all attacks are one-shot. All radars are one-use. They can SAY lots of things, but the half-trillion dollar military is down to a handful of cruise missiles and another IRGC base and command center is taken out with each use, then pretty soon whoever they call the iRGC commander is standing in the woods with two sticks and it doesn’t matter if he’s the Lead General or not. This is the unfortunate reality of war: you need to hurt them back. They haven’t hit a Denny’s. Okay, well we can clearly keep this up 1,000 years militarily.

    “War On Iran: Oil Supplies Will Again Be In Trouble – This Time For Real

    Ah! They’ve been biding their time, luring us in, and being all-around nice guys so far. They let us bomb them for months with a bomber from 1952 just to give us that false sense of security.

    “Col. Larry Wilkerson: Full-Scale U.S.-Iran War Erupts, Every Front Now Active”

    Iran has zero fronts active on the United States. Are they massing in Tijuana? Their amphibious fleet is boarding in Cuba. Maine is in play for invasion now. What “Fronts”, Larry?

    “Iran’s response to US strikes will not be proportional”

    Wow, truer words were never said. Iran is being attacked at an 80:1 ratio. I mean, thanks, if you claim that’s voluntary because you’re being nice, but as far as wars go, that’s a problem. And still zero attacks on anything in the U.S., supplying our forces 5,000 miles away not disrupted at all. This is also militarily a problem. At least stop us from reloading our WWII-era bombers.

    No support from China, Russia, or even Yemen. Not Turkey, a muslim country with relevant military – to the contrary, Iran is bombing them for no reason anyone can explain. Chinese railway cut off. Resupply ports blockaded. If you say that’s bad or illegal I can certainly agree with that, but it’s not militarily relevant to think things. Opinions aren’t operable to deliver bullets.

    July 15, 2026 at 10:34 am #244905
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Scott Ritter: Iran’s Missiles SMASH US Base in Jordan, Saudi Airport STRUCK as Trump Orders War

    July 15, 2026 at 11:01 am #244906
    ₿oogaloo
    Participant

    Has anyone else seen those collapsing polls? I haven’t. Anyone?

    Well, if the new trend for discussion on the TAE board is to post AI search results, I will give it a go once.

    The prompt: “One columnist today said that Trump’s poll numbers have been collapsing. Another said “I do not see any evidence of that.” What is the truth in the context of the resumption of the war between the US and Iran?”

    The response: The short answer is that **there is little evidence that Trump’s poll numbers are “collapsing” in the wake of the renewed fighting with Iran.** There is evidence that they have **declined from the beginning of his second term**, but the available polling suggests that the recent resumption of hostilities has **reinforced an already-existing weakness rather than triggered a dramatic new collapse.**

    A few distinctions are important.

    **1. Overall job approval**

    The highest-quality recent polling shows relative stability.

    * An AP-NORC poll conducted in mid-June found Trump’s overall approval at **37%**, essentially unchanged from May (37%) and February (36%), despite the Iran conflict. Approval of his handling of Iran was also largely unchanged. ([apnorc.org][1])

    That is inconsistent with the idea of a sudden collapse.

    **2. Reuters/Ipsos tells a somewhat different story—but not a recent collapse**

    Reuters/Ipsos found Trump’s approval at **34%**, tying the lowest level of his second term. However, Reuters itself emphasized that this represented **a return to his previous low**, not a new plunge. Trump had begun the term around 47%, then gradually declined over several months because of inflation, immigration controversies, and other issues. The Iran war appeared to contribute to that weakness. ([investing.com][2])

    In other words:

    * From inauguration: substantial decline.
    * After the Iran war: modest additional deterioration or no recovery, depending on the poll.
    * After the renewed fighting this month: not enough evidence yet of another sharp downward move.

    **3. Americans are skeptical of the Iran war itself**

    This is where the polling is much clearer.

    Recent surveys show:

    * Only about **one-quarter** of Americans think the war has been worth its costs.
    * A majority doubt that any ceasefire or agreement will produce lasting peace.
    * Roughly four in five Americans now expect a prolonged U.S. military involvement after fighting resumed. ([investing.com][2])

    That suggests considerable public pessimism about the conflict.

    **4. But opposition to the war is not the same as collapsing presidential approval**

    Historically, those two measures often diverge.

    A president can be viewed negatively on one issue while maintaining a relatively stable overall approval rating because voters continue to prioritize:

    * inflation,
    * immigration,
    * taxes,
    * crime,
    * judicial appointments,
    * or party identification.

    Trump’s coalition has remained highly polarized. Republican approval of his performance remains very high, while Democratic approval remains extremely low. That polarization tends to dampen large swings in overall approval. ([apnorc.org][1])

    ### Why two commentators could honestly disagree

    Both statements you quoted could be defended depending on what data they were using.

    The columnist saying **”Trump’s poll numbers have been collapsing”** is probably referring to:

    * the decline from roughly the high-40s early in the term to the mid-30s today, or
    * issue-specific polling on Iran, where public opinion is clearly negative. ([investing.com][2])

    The columnist saying **”I do not see any evidence of that”** is probably looking at:

    * the most recent polling surrounding the renewed Iran fighting, which shows Trump’s approval remaining roughly where it already was rather than suddenly falling. ([apnorc.org][1])

    So, based on the polling available **after the resumption of hostilities**, the second characterization is closer to the evidence. Trump’s approval ratings are **low**, and many Americans are skeptical of the Iran conflict, but there is **not yet clear evidence of a dramatic new collapse in his overall approval** attributable to the renewed war.

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