Debt Rattle March 30 2021
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@ upstateNYer
Making people think mostly gets me in trouble. Thanx for enjoying the stimulation.
“You may wish to reconsider your perspective on your statement.that Insurance companies “want them to be extremely accurate” … because … why??”
Because actuaries run the insurance companies outside of sales and marketing. If people are driving more recklessly (or more wreckful?), insurance companies want to know, period. Those stats are the lifeblood of their profit margin. It’s almost axiomatic.
“I posit that rates could [potentially] decrease a great deal if they were based on “extremely accurate” statistics.”
It sounds like you’re implying that they feel obliged to be honest or fair about what they do with those statistics. I don’t feel that way at all. They want accurate stats so they can base their business model on as accurate a model as possible to protect and enrich them… not to protect and enrich us, despite what their commercials claim:
“Now, now … if you’re going to toss stones at Dr D. for his interpretations you should be quite careful not to do the same thing yourself.”
I said it is possible, that is all. It is also possible, as you implied, that he is lying. I don’t know.
@ Doc Robinson
“The data is from the CDC of course, with the applicable caveats, but when the CDC data seems to contradict the CDC narrative, I think that’s notable.”
Okay. It likely demonstrates they’re either lying or out of touch with their own data, which we already know here after watching their circus for over a year. I suppose it confirms the general TAE confirmation bias, but that and a couple of bucks will buy you a coffee… if you wear a mask, or live in a mask-free state, or like having it delivered. It’s nothing new, in other words. Fine by me.
fwiw, I see no reason to follow those stats any more unless it does something to your psyche that you want. The stats are unreliable all around. We don’t know what to believe concerning those stats other than that they don’t add up and their sources are therefore unreliable.
This seems appropriate:
It’s not after midnight and there’s no water handy, so I suppose it’s safe to throw us gremlins some raw meat:
“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming the matter is already settled… There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”
If you increase the number of Genomic sequencing, you will increase the number of detected variants
http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/about-covid-19/variants
Testing and Variants
Regular COVID-19 testing cannot detect specific variants of COVID-19; these tests can only tell us if someone has the virus or not. Genomic sequencing is needed to detect variants.
COVID-19 Variants of Concern in B.C.
Public health scientists have found cases of three COVID-19 VoCs in B.C. These are B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.351. Initially, most VoC cases were found by testing people who have travelled outside the country and their close contacts. More recently, laboratories have increased their screening of VoCs in the community. Additional cases that were not linked to travel have been detected, indicating spread in the community.Currently, the most common VoC is B.1.1.7 and this version may become the main cause of COVID-19 in B.C. over the next few months.
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#VOC
Variants of Concern (VOC) in Canada
All viruses mutate over time and it is expected that the COVID-19 virus will evolve and change. Not all mutations are of concern; however, some changes result in variants of concern (VOC). A “variant of concern” has changes that cause the virus to act differently in ways that are significant to public health (e.g. spreads more easily, causes more severe disease, requires different treatments or changes the effectiveness of current vaccines).VOC information will be updated once per day in the evening at 7:00 PM EST with information publically reported by Provinces and Territories.
Table 2. Cumulative number of variants of concern (VOC) publically reported in Canada, by location, as of March 30, 2021
Location B.1.1.7 variant B.1.351 variant P.1 variant
British Columbia 2,134 49 370@madamski
Agreed about the general siding with power, when push comes to shove (when survival trumps honor or different values). This happens across genders, but it is slightly more common (easier) among men; men are socialized from childhood to line up behind the “alpha male.” Women are somewhat more resilient and independent. Speaking broadly, of course. There are heroes and heroines in history (thankfully).If you increase the number of Genomic sequencing, you will increase the number of detected variants
http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/about-covid-19/variants
Testing and Variants
Regular COVID-19 testing cannot detect specific variants of COVID-19; these tests can only tell us if someone has the virus or not. Genomic sequencing is needed to detect variants.
COVID-19 Variants of Concern in B.C.
Public health scientists have found cases of three COVID-19 VoCs in B.C. These are B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.351. Initially, most VoC cases were found by testing people who have travelled outside the country and their close contacts. More recently, laboratories have increased their screening of VoCs in the community. Additional cases that were not linked to travel have been detected, indicating spread in the community.Currently, the most common VoC is B.1.1.7 and this version may become the main cause of COVID-19 in B.C. over the next few months.
health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#VOC
Variants of Concern (VOC) in Canada
All viruses mutate over time and it is expected that the COVID-19 virus will evolve and change. Not all mutations are of concern; however, some changes result in variants of concern (VOC). A “variant of concern” has changes that cause the virus to act differently in ways that are significant to public health (e.g. spreads more easily, causes more severe disease, requires different treatments or changes the effectiveness of current vaccines).VOC information will be updated once per day in the evening at 7:00 PM EST with information publically reported by Provinces and Territories.
Table 2. Cumulative number of variants of concern (VOC) publically reported in Canada, by location, as of March 30, 2021
Location B.1.1.7 variant B.1.351 variant P.1 variant
British Columbia 2,134 49 370madamski: “It’s nothing new… I see no reason to follow those stats any more unless it does something to your psyche that you want.”
I looked up those stats after hearing the CDC director was fighting back tears about the impending doom, while the situation on the ground, in the state where I live, seems pretty good. I wanted to learn more about their evidence, at least what they are presenting as evidence, and I thought what I posted above was notable, for the reasons l mentioned.
Your mileage may vary, of course.I’m learning as I go, at least trying to, and my opinions do “evolve” based on what I learn . What I post here are generally things I find which I think are notable, along the themes of this site, that I believe may be interesting to others here. I guess this approach benefits my psyche in ways that simply trying to confirm my biases cannot.
Word of the day: (Good work everybody, and good civility)
Epistemology (/ɪˌpɪstɪˈmɒlədʒi/ (About this soundlisten); from Greek ἐπιστήμη, epistēmē ‘knowledge’, and -logy) is the branch of philosophy concerned with knowledge. Epistemologists study the nature, origin, and scope of knowledge, epistemic justification, the rationality of belief, and various related issues. Epistemology is considered one of the four main branches of philosophy, along with ethics, logic, and metaphysics.[1]Debates in epistemology are generally clustered around four core areas:[2][3][4]
The philosophical analysis of the nature of knowledge and the conditions required for a belief to constitute knowledge, such as truth and justification
Potential sources of knowledge and justified belief, such as perception, reason, memory, and testimony
The structure of a body of knowledge or justified belief, including whether all justified beliefs must be derived from justified foundational beliefs or whether justification requires only a coherent set of beliefs
Philosophical skepticism, which questions the possibility of knowledge, and related problems, such as whether skepticism poses a threat to our ordinary knowledge claims and whether it is possible to refute skeptical arguments
In these debates and others, epistemology aims to answer questions such as “What do we know?”, “What does it mean to say that we know something?”, “What makes justified beliefs justified?”, and “How do we know that we know?”@ Doc Robinson
” I guess this approach benefits my psyche in ways that simply trying to confirm my biases cannot.”
I like that. These are troubling times. There are readers here new to this scene.
I’m merciless about getting to the bone of the beast.
@ straightwalker
“Agreed about the general siding with power, when push comes to shove (when survival trumps honor or different values). This happens across genders, but it is slightly more common (easier) among men; men are socialized from childhood to line up behind the “alpha male.” Women are somewhat more resilient and independent. Speaking broadly, of course. There are heroes and heroines in history (thankfully).”
Poor males. They’re newcomers, evolution being gynoconcentric and gynogenic includng primogenitcally. (It is tempting here to say that therefore the egg came before the rooster, but only because I am obsessively taken by almost any trope with half a wit to its aim.) Males are a form of progress, expanding and accelerating the rate of genetic change. Not essential, often troublesome, and maybe the major drivers of this current anthropocene extinction event.
That sounds as if I disapprove of maledom, but the opposite is true. I adore men, and like all good ships, need a little caulk now and then to keep me in trim. Almost every woman loves caulk. 😉 Men didn’t ask to be meddling marauders whoband together to exert power, often viiolent, often driven by some alpha, usually male but far from always. Most warm-blooded animals follow that drift. It serves its purpose, and I have no time for feminists who su=bsribe to female chuavinism while deriding men for being male chauvinists. An asshole is an asshole, a prick is a prick, and a cunt is a cunt.
Male physical power, both individually and in groups make them dominant, and women naturally resent this, especially since males are at least as good at fucking up as are females, and females EXCEL at fucking up, god love us. This is unfortunate but I don’t think things would necessarily be better with women in charge, and forced egalitarianism, outside of equal civil liberties and basic legal rights, hurts both genders. (Feminism was a force for good until it became a mainstream crusade, which process coirrupts all reform movements and turns revolutions into auto-da-fes.)
Fact: men are in charge and will stay in charge although when times get hard this power will be shared much more with women as it always is when the going gets rough, especially when the numbers get slim. The only reason we’ve abandoned horros likie slavery and oppression of women (foot bondage, anyone?) is because of material wealth brought by technology and fossil fuels. Wars are fought with machines now, not bodies. Work is done by machines, not people. Men are mostly fat slouches these days as are most women because most jobs involve sitting all day, and most evenings are spent doing more or less the same. So the male physical advantage is greatly diminished, hence the rise of grrl power and all that pretentious faddish nonsense. U go girl. Go away.
But when the machines no longer do our work for us, men will reassert their dominance…. and women will show how tought they are in ways that men aren’t, and something closer to equality, alnbeit probably rgidly codfied, will return. Amid brutal circumstances, alas.
I watched conservatives make asses of themselves resisting simple things like allowing same sex couples the right to legally pair-bond. (Who gives a dry hump what the churches think? I’m my own religion.) I said to them: “The liberal backlash from this will rip your eyes out.” Behold your wannabe transgender 19-year old rainbow justice warrior riot grrl. The goggles! They do nothing!
Now the liberals are waxing strong (since Obama) and they won’t like the backlash they get either. I don’t think the National Guard around the Capitol was all or even mostly theater politics, a sham show. I think that they are mostly really scared. I see the Capitol as a giant crack house feveriushly pimping drugs and deals even as they know the Feds are cordoning off the block. It’s all they know to do, i.e., their addiction.
Like William Gibson wrote maybe ten years ago: “Addictions […] started out like magical pets, pocket monsters. They did extraordinary tricks, showed you things you hadn’t seen, were fun. But came, through some gradual dire alchemy, to make decisions for you. Eventually, they were making your most crucial life-decisions. And they were […] less intelligent than goldfish.”
I certainly don’t fear the goons running the joint, except regarding things like nuclear war. I fear my fellow beings. Most of them follow the goons, usually bitching the whole way. When the goons can no longer be followed, many of them will become less intelligent than goldfish and deadly as a school of piranha.
But since fear is sucker bait, I focus on befriending my neighbors and making myself liked and valuable, in the process identifying the assholes so I can avoid them or bash their head in when the time is right. I refuse to get a gun. Guns are for fraidy-cats, especially fraidy-males.
But a rifle, now… I just might get us a rifle. But more likely a crossbow or such. Quiet. No stupid muzzle flash. Cuts through Kevlar. Look, I love men, but they’re just like women: get a bunch of them together to conquer the enemy or fix a car and they act just like a bunch of women but with more talk and less action. Don’t believe me? Go to a church every Sunday for a few months. Get involved. Watch. Men in groups are like walking Senatorial subcommittees. Women in groups are phony mutual admiration societies who like to stay busy while they gossip.
Gender? Sex? Roles? FUnctions? It’s complicated:
I agree excess death and life expectancy data are important. The statistical average is cyclic due to mostly seasonal flu and winter depression. But the coronavirus mitigations implemented so far have eliminated seasonal flu. Clearly the spikes last year and at the beginning of this year are due to the pandemic. Like all statistics, the graph Doc Robinson posted could be massaged. There is a lot of pressure to keep the failing for-profit healthcare system intact. Hospital mistakes, lack of health insurance, and Opioid Addiction kill hundreds of thousands of Americans each year. But only medical care for all will reduce these numbers. These graphs are science-based data from science orientated institutions unlike unemployment figures. They indicate that if coronavirus is eradicated the number of deaths will decrease.
Nations in Asia and South Pacific document that national public health programs work but it is a constant battle to contain outbreaks that people carry in country across the borders. Vaccines alone are appearing more and more unlikely to control the pandemic. Impending Doom is appropriate. Deaths are starting to climb in the USA despite the vaccine injections. Unless coronavirus transmission is stopped, the Americans and Europe are facing an endemic that will last far into the future with new variant hot spots breaking out sporadically. After much illness and pain on these continents, humans and coronavirus will mutate to coexist together like the four other common colds. Or on the other hand, democratic government and functional national health programs can be implemented today in the USA, EU and Canada to eliminate the virus and restore the people’s health.
““Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming the matter is already settled… There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.””
This, btw, is dead wrong via false dichotomy. But the first sentence is true. The following three suck toenail powder. Some people think Michael Crichton is SO full of himself. I don’t. I think he’s full of someone who thinks he’s Michael Crichton but is too two-faced to know which one.
Vodka or Gin martini?
@ Archie & V. Arnold
If I still enjoyed alcohol, the answer would be: both.
The proper question here would be: indica or sativa? Sativa by far.
Yes, John Day – the Hudson/Escobar conversation (interview + transcript available at theSacker.is) provides clarity and insight for discussion. The decline of Globo-Cap and EVERYTHING else that is PRECIOUS is explained in one tiny quote:
“The fact is that the West – as Pepe and I’ve described – are set on fighting against an alternative that would make other people prosperous”.
The West = Our Elite Masters: who operate on us, at our expense, in our name, on ONE principle = WINNER TAKES ALL. And YOU are not included in The WINNERS Circle.
EVERYTHING, and I mean EVERYTHING else is an illusion – built/crafted to make you and me think the exact opposite. It’s an elaborate and brilliant set-up for them. Not for us. Ever wonder WHY it all feels so hard? So completely against your grain? The interview goes on to say:
“They fought against the Soviet Union in the Cold War. You have the ruling classes in America and Europe wanting to concentrate all the wealth in their own hand. They’re against the whole wave of democratic reform that the 19th century was all for. The 19th century was for a land tax. It was for public banking. It was all public infrastructure to lower the cost of doing business. This was taught in the business schools in America. But all that has been expurgated from economic history and from the history of social thought – into the memory hole, as George Orwell would say. So, you have to let people know that there’s been a whole suppressed history, not only of civilization but as recently as the 19th century concerning where civilization was going.”
#OppositeLand is our trap. The only saving GRACE is in our efforts to break free of the illusion and to plan for and participate in a local economy where shared prosperity is the goal.
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