ashvin
Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Golden Oxen,
You currency becoming worthless is not the main concern right now (assuming its $). There are no good options, only less bad ones, and cash is the least bad right now for preserving purchasing power, as well as “hard assets” for moving towards self-sufficiency. Almost every situation in which your money is tied up with a second, third, fourth…nth party is a very bad one, and that obviously includes all investments in equities and commodities, as well as most bonds. Physical gold and silver are only good if you can afford to sit on it and keep it secure for at least a few years of very harsh deleveraging.
JoeP,
Indeed, but, a lot more people who manage a lot more money and wield more influence than you and I are also asking those questions now, especially after MF Global.
It tends to get lonely when you’re so far ahead of the pack, huh? 😉
JoeP,
That’s a good point, but dark pool trading necessarily involves the biggest institutions out there, and so the point that small to mid-size retail and institutional investors are not participating much is still valid. How long can the big boys churn the markets between each other and manipulate data/prices while the fundamentals become downright revolting and everyone else is rapidly losing confidence in the system? More importantly, who wants to bet their “savings” on their ability to answer that question.
Golden Oxen post=367 wrote: Agree the low volume is bearish, wouldn’t the chart strongly suggest however it was about to turn up.?
The key thing to note is that volume has been dropping off while the market has rallied, both short-term and over the last 3 years. Volume may very well pick up on the way down.
jal,
your comments have been restored, sorry about that!
you shouldn’t have any more spam problems in the future
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos:
Our country is waging a battle of survival within the euro zone – a battle of social conhesion and national dignity. However we are in a peculiar situation becase we continually have new terms, new conditions. This is because, manifestly, there are now forces within Europe that are playing with fire because they believe the [loan agreement] will not be implemented … and who consequently have prepared and want Greece out of the euro zone.
This has to be understood here in Greece by all political and social forces. We have to rally so as not to give anyone the excuse or alibi to enforce such a scenaro, a frightening scenario not only for Greece but for the world economy.
Meanwhile, more contradictory nonsense out of Greece. New Democracy leader Samaras has signed a “pledge” to new austerity measures, but still wants to renegotiate the plan…
SamarasAdvisor wrote: We also said we should modify the plan to allow for prompt [economic] recovery. We don’t want to make recovery a top priority but we insist that it becomes an additional priority, that it be be applied in tandem with other policies to allow the economy to breath. Is this such an irrational, stubborn view when the [rescue] plan to date clearly hasn’t worked?”
It’s not because the objectives are wrong. From the beginning we agreed with them. But there is a missing ingredient.
Even if it was perfectly implemented the numbers didn’t add up. We are not saying that we are against austerity but we have to change the mix and allow for recovery.We are feeling a little embarassed that again and again they want us to show our committment to the plan. When we say prioritize recovery we mean we want to discuss it with them, not do anything unilaterally. Even if they allowed us to do whatever we wanted to do we would still stick to the programme.
DIYer,
Karma and Thank you buttons are working for me, as you can see. Maybe it’s something with your browser. If anyone else has that problem, let us know.
Robflynn post=335 wrote: Szolty has tracked the euro for most of the financial crisis, and rose against it in 2011.
Poland werent admitted to the EU until 2004 and as soon as they got in applied for membership of the eurozone
Most EU countries are required to apply and eventually join the EZ once they meet certain criteria (they obviously skimped on the deficit requirement with a few countries). Just last year, Polish politicians announced they were pushing back their target date of joining in 2014-16, and given the EZ situation and increasing public opposition in Poland of joining, I’d say there’s a good chance it will never happen.
And what people taking out loans in Swiss Francs has or doesn’t have to do with being tied to the euro I fail to see.
The point was that it doesn’t mean much to stay out of the EZ if a large portion of debtors in the country have taken out loans from Western European banks denominated in euros. Like other Eastern European countries, Poland’s problem has been more with taking out loans in CHF rather than EUR, and I pointed that out to make it clear that it has by no means escaped the GFC and home free. Still, it’s problems would be greatly compounded if it was in the EZ or about to join soon.
Supergravity,
Yes, that is typically the near-term progression of a collapsing debt system. Physical currency in your possession ends up preserving purchasing power the most effectively during these years (as well as paying down necessary debts). Eventually, even the currency is consumed by the black hole, after enough debt is deflated and enough confidence lost due to government spending/printing. The UK is a tricky situation, because their economy is extremely weak right now, their private and public debt levels are enormous and they are already starting to feel some pressure on its AAA sovereign rating. Along with France and Austria, it was just put on negative outlook by Moody’s, which means it could be downgraded in the next 1-1.5 years.
TelegraphLiveBlog wrote: 23.10 In a statement, Moody’s said the key drivers of the ratings action on the United Kingdom were:
1.) The increased uncertainty regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation in the UK due to materially weaker growth prospects over the next few years, with risks skewed to the downside. Any further abrupt economic or fiscal deterioration would put into question the government’s ability to place the debt burden on a downward trajectory by fiscal year 2015-16.
2.) Although the UK is outside the euro area, the high risk of further shocks (economic, financial, or political) within the currency union are exerting negative pressure on the UK’s Aaa rating given the country’s trade and financial links with the euro area. Overall, Moody’s believes that the considerable uncertainty over the prospects for institutional reform in the euro area and the region’s weak macroeconomic outlook will continue to weigh on already fragile market confidence across Europe.
jal,
We should remember that Germany’s GDP per capital was still at least 1.5x greater than Greece’s as of 2011, and that gap is widening rapidly. Greece was not really receiving “tributes and resources” from the center, but was artificially increasing its wealth through large amounts of private and public debt creation (like most other economies), which in turn helped the center grow their “productive economies” as well.The common currency allowed for that to happen, and now Greece doesn’t have the productive economy (cash flow) to back up even a small portion of those debts. There is no doubt that capital is pouring out of peripheral Greece like there is no tomorrow, and into central institutions (as opposed to the citizens of central nations). In terms of capital/resource flow, the periphery has greatly expanded to encompass a large majority of people in the world.
Predictably, New Democracy “opposition” leader Samaras is still stuck in electioneering mode, and has said that his party can renegotiate the package just agreed to when they get in power two months from now. That, in turn, just provides more fodder for Germany to justify cutting off the cash.
Also predictably, there has been extensive rioting in response to last night’s boondoggle. I told you it was a neoliberal edifice!
Telegraph wrote: 11.03 Some pictures coming in of the clean-up in Athens after last night’s trouble. Estimates are that 45 buildings were wholly or partly destroyed. The deputy mayor said rioters attacked “emblematic buildings, about 10 neo-classical edifices”.
All semantics aside, I am less deterministic about the evolution of this whole situation than I used to be. In terms of Engel’s theory of historical materialism (most of that was written by Engels, not Marx), for example, I tend to agree with more modern thinkers that the original formulation was too simplistic. The system definitely carries a lot of momementum for all those invested in it, which obviously includes the financial elites, and there is more range of freedom at the bottom than the top, but choices still exist for everyone involved. Not really something that can be established beyond a doubt one way or the other, though.
Alexander AC,
The problem with Credit Suisse is that it’s a bank, and so it naturally thinks the banking system could be saved “if only”. The current system can’t be saved in any way that doesn’t end in widespread violence, by the state and/or by the masses. CS is correct to point out, though, that current policies to avoid defaults and “credit events” at all costs is simply making the problem that much worse.
SteveB,
I would say an anarchist critique of property usually amounts to a critique of money. What is the definition of “money” you are working from?
jal,
I have restored your recent comment sent to the spam cage. Not sure why it got there.
btw, you don’t need anyone’s permission to start a topic on the forum.
SteveB post=266 wrote: Ash, I’d appreciate any references to modern moneyless societies and their intellectual foundations. Thanks.
The best example at a relatively large scale is the revolution in Spain after the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War.
Gaston Leval wrote: In Spain during almost three years, despite a civil war that took a million lives, despite the opposition of the political parties (republicans, left and right Catalan separatists, socialists, Communists, Basque and Valencian regionalists, petty bourgeoisie, etc.), this idea of libertarian communism was put into effect. Very quickly more than 60% of the land was collectively cultivated by the peasants themselves, without landlords, without bosses, and without instituting capitalist competition to spur production. In almost all the industries, factories, mills, workshops, transportation services, public services, and utilities, the rank and file workers, their revolutionary committees, and their syndicates reorganized and administered production, distribution, and public services without capitalists, high salaried managers, or the authority of the state.
Even more: the various agrarian and industrial collectives immediately instituted economic equality in accordance with the essential principle of communism, ‘From each according to his ability and to each according to his needs.’ They coordinated their efforts through free association in whole regions, created new wealth, increased production (especially in agriculture), built more schools, and bettered public services. They instituted not bourgeois formal democracy but genuine grass roots functional libertarian democracy, where each individual participated directly in the revolutionary reorganization of social life. They replaced the war between men, ‘survival of the fittest,’ by the universal practice of mutual aid, and replaced rivalry by the principle of solidarity….
This experience, in which about eight million people directly or indirectly participated, opened a new way of life to those who sought an alternative to anti-social capitalism on the one hand, and totalitarian state bogus socialism on the other.
When I say “existing today”, I mean within local communities, villages, tribes, etc, like the indigenous tribes of Papua New Guinea.
SteveB post=255 wrote: [quote=ashvin post=254]The very idea of large-scale moneyless societies was borne out of theories about how economic activity occurs in the first place.
Are you referring to something in particular? In my case, the idea came to me from nowhere in particular, at least not any economic theory source.
I would recommend checking out the writing/ideas of Pierre-Joseph Proudhon, who was referenced in the article (because he believed in peaceful revolution), and is considered the original “anarchist”. He has written some of the most scathing critiques of private property ever, which is essentially a critique of money.There’s really no need to re-invent the wheel, SteveB. We have examples of moneyless societies that have existed and still do exist, as well as intellectual foundations for how they can work, and people who have fought hard and risked their lives to make them work. When you strive to make the idea of moneyless society your own vision of a global utopia, you devalue the entire concept, IMO.
Happysurfer post=261 wrote:
1. it is still not possible to edit – User Profile
2. How do you revert the page format to the “original” once you have the “read more” format.1) No, but working on getting that fixed
2) If you mean go back to the article’s own page, I would just hit browser back button or keep this forum open in a separate window.SteveB post=253 wrote: Ash, I was commenting on the juxtaposition of logic and economics (i.e., non-logic). Why would a moneyless society have a field of economics?
I know, why wouldn’t it? The very idea of large-scale moneyless societies was borne out of theories about how economic activity occurs in the first place.
I wonder whether the behaviors described (e.g., human herding) would likely hold true (and/or to the same degree) in a world that didn’t use money. And perhaps most importantly, how would trust be different?
That’s an unequivocal yes. These are behaviors that are exhibited throughout many different social species, and humans cannot circumvent nature by ridding themselves of money. Mutual knowledge, specifically, is simply the existence of a certain state of awareness about what other individuals are aware of.
Punxsutawney post=248 wrote: As I’m sure you know, when the Police / Military refuse to fight / control their fellow citizens, the jig is up for whoever is giving the orders. So it is an important announcement.
Yes, a very important announcement. But it is only a large segment of the police that is starting to buck the system, not the military. That obviously raises the question of whether the politicians will try to cling to their delusions of grandeur by declaring martial law against their own people, even when it is becoming obvious that Germany has all but given up on Greece remaining in the EU, and merely wants to avoid a “disorderly” exit. I really hope it doesn’t come to that, but we should find out soon enough.
Greek police union wants to arrest EU/IMF officials
(Reuters) – Greece’s largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country’s European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures.
In a letter obtained by Reuters Friday, the Federation of Greek Police accused the officials of “…blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty” and said one target of its warrants would be the IMF’s top official for Greece, Poul Thomsen.
The threat is largely symbolic since legal experts say a judge must first authorize such warrants, but it shows the depth of anger against foreign lenders who have demanded drastic wage and pension cuts in exchange for funds to keep Greece afloat.
“Since you are continuing this destructive policy, we warn you that you cannot make us fight against our brothers. We refuse to stand against our parents, our brothers, our children or any citizen who protests and demands a change of policy,” said the union, which represents more than two-thirds of Greek policemen.
Europe is now deliberately trying to push Greece out
There is only one way of interpreting the set of fresh demands tabled by eurozone finance ministers last night in return for agreeing a new €130bn bailout for Greece – that they are now quite deliberately trying to push Greece out of the euro. All pretence at European solidarity has been abandoned, to be replaced by the vengeance of Shylock.
To push Greece out is of course the right approach for all. There is now no chance whatsoever of Greece making it in the eurozone. Economically and politically, the country is in meltdown.
Nobody in their right mind would invest in Greece right now, knowing that at any moment Greece might leave the euro and that overnight, they will therefore lose half to two thirds of their money.
lautturi wrote: Not exactly about the topic but close enough…
Comments don’t have to be about “the topic”!
PS – We will probably end up closing commentary threads altogether, and just running general discussion threads with the features, like before. Or something like that.
Viscount,
I feel the exact opposite, and I don’t think it’s just a constant state of “doomerism”, because I’ve felt closer to how you feel before. First, you are correct to note that it is “brightest before the dusk” or “calmest before the storm”, as extensive levels of complacency in the face of worsening fundamentals on every level usually signal a peak in mood, confidence, valuations, etc.
Second, there is nothing about Europe that has been contained. Many mainstream analysts, at least the semi-respectable ones, agree that there is no good way out for Greece anymore, regardless of what kind of deals they reach. Way too many moving parts that want to collide into each other rather than function as an efficient machine.
And all the US data manipulation, settlements with criminal banksters, MF Global looting without any prosecutions, police state tactics and ridiculous political theater is just destroying whatever confidence the people had left in their leaders to do anything competently or justly. Perception of the US economy may benefit some more as the Euro situation depends, but once the bank runs start, that will change very quickly.
There is no question that some parts of Europe are very likely to experience HI in the near future. Greece, for example, when it is forced back on the Drachma. It’s less likely that the entire euro currency will have that fate if parts of the core separate out and choose to retain. That will depend much more on how far Germany is willing to go to keep the current structure intact. The fact that they seem unwilling to compromise on any austerity may signify that they have already given up on keeping Greece in (not to mention the Greek people striking and protesting are well into the process of giving up on staying in).
Mcintel,
You should be able to sign up for email alerts from the right hand column, below Stoneleigh Occupies and Follow Us. You can also subscribe to forum posts to be alerted of new comments.
The page numbering on forum threads is definitely messed up, not sure why.
Smilies working for me, though :unsure:
(you have to type in the actual characters)Supergravity post=196 wrote: Would this wage deflation environment make Germany more vulnerable to imported oil price shocks, driving the cost of living past critical mass?
Yet another thing leaders of the developed world have failed to even consider, in public at least. People are being squeezed left and right because that’s what the system requires to grow, but that growth is its own worst nightmare.
As VK said, we’ll look into all possibilities of getting more old site community feel back into comments.
Meanwhile, AEP has a pretty good post on the Greek death spiral in comparison to Germany.
This is what a death spiral looks like.
It is what can happen if you join a fixed exchange system, then take out very large debts in what amounts to a foreign currency, and then have simultaneous monetary and fiscal contraction imposed upon you.
Germany discovered this on the Gold Standard when it racked up external debt from 1925 to 1929 (owed to American bankers) in much the same way as Greece has done.
When the music stopped – ie, when the Fed raised rates from 1928 onwards – Germany blew apart in much the same way as Greece is blowing apart. This is not a cultural or anthropological issue. It is the mechanical consequence of capital flows into a country that cannot handle it, as Germany could not handle it in the late 1920s.
By the way, Greeks work an average 42 hours a week, one of the highest in Europe. Just want to put the record straight on that.
All of the links under TAE Pages on the bottom wibiya bar should be functional now, including forum and login.
Glennda,
I don’t see anyone reason why people can’t continue making whatever comments they like under feature/commentary threads, off topic or otherwise. They can also create their own topics in the forum for specific issues they want to bring up.
I guess the main difference is that you may need to switch threads more often to keep up with the latest discussions, since more content is posted.
TheTrivium4TW,
You must get into the forum if you want to see article/topic threads. The bottom bar link may not be working right now – we’re trying to fix that. The other way for now is to click on “posts in discussion” at the bottom of the article’s page. Once in the forum, click on recent topics or my topics to see your topic.
SteveB post=167 wrote: Ash, there you go again being overly generous, this time associating “the fields of economics and logic”. 😉
Hey, even moneyless societies would have some field of economics!
The forum link from the wibiya bar at bottom should take you to the forum’s main page.
You can also post comments to the forum directly under a feature/commentary, or get to the forum thread by clicking “posts in discussion”.
I do what Glenjeff does and keep the “recent topics” page open, refreshing if I want to check for new topics/comments.
jal,
All posts should be showing now.
As for karma, that has something to do with # of posts, and you don’t get credit for Blogger. Sorry!
Very nice computer btw.
Kid’s not bad looking, either.
Porkpie post=120 wrote: But I am struck, as I always am when this pattern repeats itself, by how you started the post with the frank acknowledgment–with citations–of the strength and importance of flocking behaviour*, but went on to say the work at TAE is “also rooted in both increasing factual knowledge and mutual knowledge.”
Flocks do not respond to factual knowledge. Flocks respond to actions. Now, the bright side is the lead bird may respond to facts and knowledge, but until we are making clear and public displays of our behaviour, the flock will never wheel away from a predator.
OK, but where do we draw the line for “public displays” of action? In the modern world, I believe what we are doing right now can be quite public and effective at increasing mutual knowledge of the possibilities for change. Whether that’s changing the system, one’s community or oneself, or all three. And factual knowledge is simply a more specific component of that change, i.e. how to change, what to change, where to change, etc, although I agree it may not drive the “flock” as much.
ex VRWC post=121 wrote: I disagree on the point that the mass protests of even OWS laid down “the necessary and mutual foundation for systemic change”. I don’t think, in fact, that they reached a level of mutual definition and identification of the problems – in Egypt or within the cronny-capitalist western powers.
Well, I’m sure you would agree that it is a “necessary” foundation, as in it’s a first series of steps that must be taken.
In Egypt, for example, you had the real power base of an entrenched elite in bed with the military that, in effect was raping the country. But the ‘Facebook revolution’ focused on sweeping aside a figurehead, doing nothing more that paving the way for a worse situation and an impending tragedy on economic, religious, and social levels.
True, as noted, Mubarak’s departure didn’t accomplish much. It’s not easy revolutionizing a nation when it is part of a much larger global system of coercion and inequality. Yet, they are still out there protesting a year later and many more around the world have joined them. These things adapt and evolve, but there is never guarantee of “success”.
In OWS, you had a decentralized protest that failed to even finger the real problem – that the political systems in western countries are in bed with financial interests, and that their policies such as ZIRP, militarism, destructive embrace of globalization, and vote pandering are the real issue. They got stuck on the fact that some people are rich. Violence is only one of OWS problems. Lack of identifying the true issues is far more fundamental in my view.
I don’t think we can a) say that it has failed while it is still occurring and spreading, b) say that everyone in it fails to understand the “real” problems or c) only say that it is productive when everyone agrees on what the problems are. The point for me is that people can build off of mutual knowledge of each others’ action/inaction even if they don’t agree on exactly how they and the planet are being destroyed by the system. And violence is not a problem for OWS yet.
Receding horizons, anyone??
4.10pm: Economist Shaun Edwards points out that Greek bonds are still trading at very distressed levels in the secondary bond market today:
Here we go again as Greece’s one-year bond yield rises to 528% now. Only 527.9% above Germany’s!
Earlier, 6 month bills went off at about 4.8% at auction. Of course, they can’t really auction those 1 year bonds
mrawlings post=92 wrote: Question regarding this new set-up: will we at some point be able to assign pictures to our avatars?
Yes, can’t tell you when the avatars/profiles will start working though.
jal,
the “read more” link on the front page should take you to the article’s own page with the full text.
the smileys can be entered by typing the “boardcode” for it, i.e. whatever it says to type when you hold your mouse over the icon
i just figured out what BBCode is myself – a way to format text similar to HTML code, except you use [] instead of <>, and some tags are different
