Forum Replies Created
It is just impossible for me to believe that the Saudi’s lose money on every barrel of oil they produce.
Stopped reading the article after that was presented. Fake News thought overtook my interest.
Hi Nassim, Mr Fischer has resigned.
True Professor, Things do change however, and men have a way of turning back to their lords and masters in times of fear and adversity.
Gold will be placed on it’s throne again as the master of the Financial World, to restore order and sanity to the lunacy and buffoonery the academics such as Madam Yellen have graced us with.
The Gold Standard is the answer to the PhD Standard.
Also the answer to never ending wars and unlimited government spending.
It’s time to move to cash if you haven’t already, and if you have enough, perhaps a bit of gold, silver or bitcoin, but do remember those are not risk-free.
Ilargi, Cannot tell you how glad I am that a writer of your influence and sophistication has finally accepted a bit of gold as an acceptable adjunct to cash in the troubling circumstances we find ourselves in. Regards, GOOctober 13, 2015 at 9:27 pm in reply to: Short Squeeze, Liquidity, Margin Debt and Deflation #24376
One heck of a bearish article, and most difficult to ignore.
Found it sobering and it caused me to do some lightening up.
There are some facts you just cannot ignore. The repos are beyond me as to meaning, but that margin debt chart is clear, concise, and most alarming.
Time to get out of Dodge me thinks.
Thanks Ilargi, too much vodka in the punch bowl, someone has to sober us up.
My condolences Sir.
The loss of a parent is a particularly painful affair. Hopefully the sadness will pass soon and be replaced by fond joyous memories of your wonderful Mother.
Great estates are made of Real Estate, Precious Metals and Collectable Art. Most of these holdings are bought with no intention of selling, but to preserve wealth over very long periods. Don’t know of many old and lasting fortunes consisting only of fiat notes.
Thank you Professor. Few understand gold, but most have much to say about it.
Confucius Say ” A Fool and His Gold Are Soon Parted.”
What an article, complimented by one of the best comments section as well.
Reader request for more specific views on Gold and Silver and their role in the unfolding situation.
“You won’t be able to buy them later.” “Losses if you have to sell in a few years.” “Hyperinflation later.” Tough for me to get a handle on and pose all sorts of questions in my mind.
Also, as noted in your graphs used in article, Gold did not follow the script of the others, but did “eventually” as was mentioned.
That eventually was approximately four years later. Might that not mean something more important than to merely dismiss as “eventually” getting in to line?
Thanks for considering my request for more Specificity regarding gold and silver. GO
Fiat money controlled by the whims of Banksters and their moral compass are of course the root of much of this evil lying system.
That brings up the four letter word so disdained by banksters and their dim slaves however, GOLD. No sense going any further than a mention.April 4, 2015 at 4:17 pm in reply to: Warren Buffett is Everything That’s Wrong With America #20305
You have a perfect right to be poor or not acquire any more excess wealth than what you need.
Warren has the perfect right to be a very successful investor as well.
It’s all about freedom from tyranny, and those who would tell us that we should be like them, the good people. The caring people. Those who love us and are looking out for our own good. Al Gore, Michelle Obama and Dear Leader Kim Jong-un come to mind, there are scores of other good wise people who would also rise to the task of telling us that they are good and we are bad.
Another wonderful article from Pravda.
Of course, an amendment mandating all currency be real, and the sole property of it’s holder, not the property of the State, might be acceptable, maybe?
What a wonderful world it would then be Professor. Only banksters and their politician puppets would be unhappy at that pleasant time.
How is bitching about the problem in any way akin to working toward its solution?
Who should we vote for, Jeb or Hillary?
Draghi was then vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Suchs International and a member of the firm-wide management committee (2002–2005).
One need go no further to realize how helpful the plan will be for Europe and it’s citizens.
Sounds like quite a party starting up for the folks from New York that do God’s Work. About a trillion Euros worth of goodies to front run and skim every month.
I find the whole oil issue and all it’s variables too complex. One thing I can say definitely however is beware and treat with utmost caution anything coming from Goldman Suchs.
A used car salesman will give you a more honest researched opinion on a car he is trying to sell you.
Hi Snowleopard, Great to hear from you again and know you are well. Another winter before us my friend, hope it’s not as bad as last year. Regards, GO
My gut feeling is the Saudi’s have very little to do with all this.
We are witnessing a world wide economic contraction that is accelerating in my opinion and all the jibber jabber and phoney numbers are mere noise that confuse the issue.
The damage that has been done to the minds of the worlds middle class by all this talk of buy ins, pension cuts, negative interest rates etc as well as fears of job stability are never talked about but have taken a major toll on confidence.
Expecting big trouble after the holidays.
The entire Interview episode is “Imbeciles in Action”
Much Ado About Nothing.December 19, 2014 at 11:14 am in reply to: The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil #17635
Many claim we will have a QE4 soon because of the problems described in the article.
It has become much to complicated for me to have an opinion, other that to remark it appears that the Fed has no real long term plan and is reacting to current events as they happen.
This “Data Dependent” line always used gets me. What is she going to do when the data tells her the world economy is in collapse due to the strong dollar?
How does her silly 2% inflation target fit into this??
Most of the big S&P 500 are dependent for over half their sales and earnings in these markets. What is she going to do when their earnings collapse, as well as the stock market?
Nothing adds up anymore, and throw in the collapse of the fracking bubble and it’s effects on the economy and it becomes total confusion.
What a fascinating photograph of Chinatown, photography is art. Don’t miss the blow up version of this photo.
What an article, sure made me wish I had done more to stop it. Ashamed at myself and most everyone else for not doing more.
What an exceptional group of comments, so thought provoking and written with such depth and perspective.
Thanks Everybody, TAE at it’s finest.
There is an old saying that “The Stock Market Cannot Stand Uncertainty.”
If that is true, “Look Out Below”
The goings on in the Tower of Babel made more sense than the financial babble and rantings of the current scene.
No one can even agree if oil going down is good or bad yet?????
Dr Diablo, agreed if this were indeed a drop in oil caused by market factors. Quite another, if it is as many think, a ploy by the Saudi’s to put our fracking industry out of business, and then subsequently harm us more at a later date. I don’t know which but assume it is most likely a mixture of both.
As far as TAE goes, while I do not know her current stance, Nicole predicted this very crack in oil prices a while back, and also predicted there would be very bad consequences from it a bit further down the road.
It may be much too early to consider this a good thing in my view, but I certainly understand your positive sentiment towards it, especially where I own a car, and my New England home is heated with oil.
As for the financial sector, if this crack in oil is the black swan that bursts the bond bubble, your assertion that it is a bad is much too gentle a description; one can only shudder when they think of the leverage and shenanigans going on out there with the Wall St and Bankster clan that a steep rise in interest rates would put an abrupt end to, a calamitous ending for sure.
“Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and to God the things that are God’s.”
My problem with this oil article is the idea we have to get to 40 dollars for the real trouble.
The charts presented in the article make it clear to me that the big trouble is already here.
Prolonged 65 dollar oil is all it will take to blow this pile of leveraged paper away. Can the rest of the junk bond market escape is my new concern.
Huckleberry is indeed angry but he brings new insights to the table that are of value imho.
Many thanks and praises to Ilargi for allowing radically different points of view along with some attitude issues.
We constantly need Devil’s advocates to test our mettle and constantly re evaluate our views.
Just an opinion, but I was always under the assumption we need growth to provide goods, food, clothing, shelter, jobs, for an ever expanding population.
It always seemed reasonable to me.
When I was born there were 3 billion people or so in the world, now there are over 7, i’m guessing.
How else do you provide a living standard for all those additional folks with stagnating economies?
Perhaps that is the root of Japan’s seemingly severe problems. a shrinking population might require shrinking growth, same with Italy. I am so confused at the current financial system that these are both questions and answers simultaneously.
Of course it is not my wish to close this posting by not acknowledging we hardly need 5 TVS and 5 cars in every home, swimming pools in a great many of them, A WallMt and three fast food joints on every corner. That is not the slow steady productive type of growth I am talking about.
I would not want to be in the business of trying to sell junk bonds of frackers to investors these days.
The yields would have to be so enticing, that they alone would have to give concern as to their worthiness and ability to pay.
We are one week into December and still no kick in oil prices?
Yes, there are much more attractive instruments to be selling these days.
Thanks Alan for such an excellent posting.
You gift for writing and realistic coherent original points of view are most appreciated. Regards, GO
Stephen Hawkings Warns,
Read this view of AI destroying us a while back from Elon Musk, now Mr. Hawkings is chiming in.
Not a couple of dunces, that’s for sure.
Any views on this topic of Apocalypse from TAE members? Sure gets one thinking in a different direction than Finance.
Elon Musk Is Not Alone In His Belief That Robots Will Eventually Want To Kill Us All
Yes, China has problems, Jim Chanos has been reminding us of it for years now on CNBC, he is heavily short.
How can they not have a recession? Their biggest export market Europe is a basket case. We ourselves are not what one would call Boom town and are no doubt hurting the Dragon as well. Japan just crashed the Yen, hardly a help.
They are way overdue for a back up. Real estate will fall dramatically, unemployment rise, stocks will probably dive as will expectations of rapid growth forever. A healthy development, nothing like a dose of reality to stop silly stupid reckless behavior.
The world will still spin. Measures will be taken to end the misery. The billion plus Chinese will still eat every day and make it through.
The Chinese, nor their trillions in reserves, are not going to suddenly disappear, not from a severe recession. Look at we were in 2008, and look at us now compared to then.
Recessions, depressions , whatever you wish to call them depending on your benchmarks are common. Some end quickly, some drag on for the longest time,
My great fear is that all this economic misery, if it gets severe enough, could lead to world war. Then we will have a real problem, one too horrible to contemplate.
Mr. Stockman is very bullish on Gold.
His Contra Club is a great site, wealth of top shelf financial information.
Free subscription and daily e-mails of current analysis on recent financial matters.
And why does it take 2 years to get this out into the open?
• Leak at Federal Reserve Revealed Confidential Bond-Buying Details (ProPublica)
Corruption at all levels.
These are people with immense power, allowed to meet in secret, to discuss monetary policy for the nation and perhaps the world.
What topic should be more open and subject to public scrutiny at meetings?
You can bet this is no isolated instance.
While strictly not a measure of valuations the graph of the record amount of margin debt is most troubling. This is usually gambling, not investing money, and is hardly an indicator of subdued speculation.
“It makes no difference how many times I say I have nothing against gold, if you’re not with us, you’re against us.”
Then how about discussing the purchasing power of the dollar versus gold for the past century.
How about discussing what the 95 percent drop in your favored fiat currency has done to the poor and the elderly on fixed incomes.
How about discussing the defenders of the value of your favored fiat handing over a couple of trillion of them to their bankster friends.
How about bad mouthing stocks, real estate, art, diamonds, with the vehemence you show constantly against gold.
You most certainly do have a special place in you heart for gold Ilargi.
The sad thing is that many people who agree with you about our bleak financial future are trying to escape this Bankster’s wet dream of a financial system,words you used to aptly describe it, by buying gold and you lambast them and gold.
How about beating up on the shit heads that are buying Amazon and Facebook at these prices, or paying 60 million for a photo of Marlon Brando, and giving the folks who are trying to hide from the madness in a conservative manner a fair shake?
Gold’s detractors always discuss gold’s recent highs when venting their hatred of Real Money.
Never do I hear them say Gold is up from 300 a decade ago and just had a vicious correction. 20 dollars when the Fed was created.
Most Gold detractors are Leftists as well. They cannot understand an asset of wealth preservation, a stable family jewel item that is NEVER TO BE SOLD or pawned unless of dire emergency. Spending, loans, credit cards, dying poor so they may enter heaven is their thing.
Leftists, credit, fiat money, debt, gold hating, wealth hating, they are all peas in a pod.
“The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register.”
Hans F. Sennholz
The fallout from a collapse of Fracker junk debt could also pull out the Bazooka, could be very soon the way oil prices are currently falling.
If this debt problem were just confined to the oil industry it would be bad enough, in my experience with markets however, that is hardly ever the case.
Once a bomb goes off and a fire starts, it rages through the entire forest, in this case, the entire junk debt jungle, and it won’t stop there.
When I think for a moment of the debt and leveraged speculation dependent on this fracking bubble expanding, it gets truly frightening. Suppliers, jobs, real estate values, equity and bond positions, leases, state and county tax revenues etc.; one can easily entertain the thought that the grand party has ended and it’s time to run for the exits.
Don’t be tardy, they get crowded in an instant and one can be trampled to poverty if hesitant.
Boy oh Boy, has Mr Kunstler got a powerful style of writing.
He is right as rain of course, the entire thing is a big fake. Make believe wealth, fueled by make believe Fed money.
Yet most hate Gold, cannot imagine it’s return being a partial solution to the insanity, and continue to look for solutions to the madness with make believe credit based money at the center of the system. It won’t work.
“I don’t hold any grudge against Hugh Hendry, I’m simply using him as an example, or as a mirror.”
It would appear you consider him harming children by buying stocks. If he were shorting stocks recently and loosing his money, or his investors money, would that be helpful to the poor children?
Politicians and government employees being driven around in limos all day, having champagne and escargot luncheons, and living the lives of royalty on our dime are a better class to complain about squeezing others, than someone taking chances in the markets. As our elected representatives, shouldn’t they be sacrificing a bit to help the poor children?