Golden Oxen
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The $100B created in the Facepalm IPO will last about as long as the average Foxconn worker lasts making Iphones before committing Sepukku. The ONLY reason that stock is not ALREADY in the toilet is because Morgan Stanley is backstopping it.
True RE, but that doesn’t alter the fact it has been money created. When MS lets it get flushed you can also bet the bansters will all score big time shorting the hell out of it.
@ William, A very interesting and thought provoking post sir. The only problem I see right off is the people with the cash will feel they are getting the short end. People without the cash would find it appealing. Would like to see other members reaction to it and think about it much longer. RE’S comments on this cashless structure should be interesting as he is very opposed to a money based system. Are you suggesting we try to form some sort of community monasteries where we live as a large organized family each with our own chores and responsibilities? How would the seniors contribute in such a system, what about education, medicine, transportation etc.?
“Now, it’s all battles for shrinking pockets of wealth/control, all the way down.” That pie sure is getting smaller, no doubt at all about that. Bigger bites out of a smaller pie would suggest game ends sooner rather than later. Could they possibly create a bigger pie? Say, create a huge world wide stock market bubble that dwarfs that internet insanity they had a while back? Create a wealth effect that puts most everyone in a big feel good mood that keeps them all busy gambling in the market all day. They rig the hell out of it already. They could declare a tax holiday for a few years on stock profits and lower margins to 20 or 10% as a way to stimulate the economy and create jobs. It would be an easy sell. Ash, I realize you think I am stuck badly on this printing with make believe money theme, but I am being sincere. Look at the 100 billion they just created out of thin air with that Facebook fantasy they dumped on the sheeple yesterday!
ashvin post=3016 wrote: [quote=Golden Oxen post=3013]Agree 100% with this forecast of Gary Jenkins. Things are getting out of hand rapidly with deflation shouters now out of control. Shock therapy imminent.
Shock therapy is always imminent – it’s the only thing the banks and their cronies know how to do (threaten shock therapy and/or implement it). It ONLY works consistently in a paradigm of growth/expansion. We are not in that paradigm any more, and that is the point – deterrence is DEAD.
If you think about it, flooding the system with liquidity is a form of deterrence – it punishes people for “betting” on the other side, whether that be investors, hard workers, savers, retirees, or anyone else who has chosen to face reality and be disciplined (personally, not institutionally) in their lives. That punishment will only be effective when the costs of being disciplined outweigh the benefits.
If/when a significant portion of investors, consumers and/or citizens of the world choose to keep their money, efforts, support out of the system no matter what the central bankers threaten to do or actually do, for whatever reason, then Gary Jenkins and all others like him will be exposed as puppets of the Naked Emperor, and their predictions will be flat out wrong.
Agree with your statement Ashvin, it is the when it happens that is the problem. They are threatening to tax savings if we don’t spend them, threatening to force IRA’s to buy their bonds, they already destroyed our savings with zero interest rates and inflation. It is hard to fight the bastards with a cash pile they are always attacking. I have tried to protect with gold and silver and they screw over us gold bugs to every time they get a chance. I am scared of creating my own dooms day by preparing for the real one if you know what I mean. The TIMING of this thing is EVERYTHING.Triv, Agreed that they have no concern whatsoever for us. Do think they fear a real uprising at this point in time however. No sense upsetting the gravy train until they have too. After all it is all peaches and cream for them. I just love the way they joust about in chauffeur driven limos as they enjoy their escargot and champagne lunches while preaching austerity to the sheeple. Why screw up a setup that is working so nicely? As you rightfully point out the printing is theft and the sheeple want it. Paul Krugman is even begging for it. Such a deal, makes me just a bit jealous.
Gary Jenkins from the bond advisers Swordfish said those betting on a market crash should be careful. “The global central banks are going to respond with the biggest flood of liquidity the world has ever seen. It will make the LTRO (the ECB’s €1 trillion lending to banks) look like small change,” he said.
Agree 100% with this forecast of Gary Jenkins. Things are getting out of hand rapidly with deflation shouters now out of control. Shock therapy imminent.
@pipefit. Glad to meet another gold perma bull, a rare breed for sure. Have been long gold and silver for over forty years. Hang in there pipefit. “Gold Will Win.” My opinion of the decoupling this week was the manipulative short sellers, Morgan and G Suchs and company, have been tipped of a big reflation imminent. This next print should be a real doozy, especially with the deflation fairy tale getting a lot of press lately.
There is a slowdown in world economies no doubt and demand for most commodities is falling from it as well as their recent prices. Would like to point out that in a world of rigged currency markets and central bank money printing prices can turn up rapidly from currency events having nothing to do with underlying supply and demand issues. Keep in mind that the major commodities of the world are priced in US dollars which has been very strong lately due to Euro problems and declines in the commodities currencies of Canada and Australia. that situation could change dramatically if the dollar were to weaken due to our own problems or the fed were to announce another major reflation gimmick. Prices, as always, are a two way street.
“From my POV, a New Drachma is a Non-Starter. I don’t see what the Greeks have to back this up besides Olives and Feta Cheese, and I don’t think the Export Market for EITHER of those is all that good right now.” What did they have to back their currency before this silly Euro experiment? It appeared to be a functional currency. Greece will survive a massive devaluation of it’s currency if it goes back to it, much like Argentina,Mexico, Brazil etc. This end of the world decent into hell talk, if you default, is bankster propaganda. Don’t get me wrong it will not be pretty for a spell, but Greece will survive and the world will still spin. Come to think of it Zimbabwe is still on the map and somehow functioning. That printing orgy they had there made the other hypers look like a friendly game of Monopoly.
Nice Going Ashvin, I always knew you had it in you to can the mannered verbosity and lay it on the line plain, cold, and simple. What a friggin mess we are in. Throw in a possible developing world war with some possible nuclear fireworks displays for background music and we have the perfect horror show. I feel so bad for all the good people of the world, who just went about their daily lives with a good moral compass and trust and respect of others who have to go down with the rotten bastards that caused all of this.
Dimon probably came forward because the lawyers told him too. This must mean they fear legal reprisals against him. You can bet there is much more to come from this story. If it were contained and not spreading they would have fired some clerk in the London Office, named him as a rogue trader, and continued on with their swine’s game of rigging all the markets with the public”s purse. It is the goody goody boy act of “I came clean as soon as i was made aware of it.” Expect the worst from this unfolding financial porn story, you won’t be disappointed.
If this article is true and inflation cannot render the debt situation manageable, then a debt moratorium would have to come up for consideration to prevent the collapse of our society in my opinion. Are billions of people going to suffer the rest of their lives for a debt situation gone wild and beyond all sane behavior, especially when most of them had absolutely nothing to do with it and did not even participate in the drunken orgy of debt? A debt moratorium is a delay in the payment of debts or obligations. The term is generally used to refer to acts by national governments. A moratory law is usually passed in some special period of political or commercial stress; for instance, on several occasions during the Franco-Prussian War, the French government passed moratory laws. Their international validity was discussed at length, and upheld in the English law case Rouquette v Overman (1875) LR 10 QB. Debt moratoriums are generally opposed by creditors.
Proponents of debt moratoriums argue that it is a sovereign decision by the government of a nation to suspend payment of debt to its creditors, in the event that to do otherwise would do irreparable harm to the welfare of its citizenry. A debt moratorium may take the form of a complete cessation of debt payments, or a partial cessation; for example, the government of President Alan García of Peru implemented the so-called “Ten Per Cent Solution”, where it was announced that only 10% of export earnings would go to debt payment.
Nations which have, at one time or another, declared a debt moratorium, are Peru, Pakistan,[1] Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Argentina and the United States in the Great Depression with its World War I debts (1931). The most recent addition to this group is Ecuador, which entered a technical moratorium on its foreign debt on 14 November 2008. Ecuador stopped all payments on its 2012 bond, but has continued on the 2015 bond. The investment company Dubai World, owned by the Dubai government also declared a debt moratorium in November, 2009
Triv, In all honesty this entire European mess is much to confusing and has too many variables and possible outcomes to make analysis possible.
I cannot understand it hard as I try. It has been my observation that when a country has a sudden sharp devaluation in it’currency, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia etc. after the short term pain of the resultant inflation passes they seem to go along there merry way without constant suffering and misery. This European mess seems to be going in the other direction of a multi decade desire to suffer and inflict punishment. My idea as it was so nicely put by Nassim, “Maybe The Future is to be Found in the Past” Things seemed to work OK without the EURO before so lets try life without it again. Simple idea and I cannot back up the idea with anything but the observation that the current system is not functioning and the older one did, not perfectly of course but it was functional.What is the problem, too much debt, or being tied to the EURO, or both? Debt problems have usually been solved by inflating it away. If the EURO prevents this it will have to be placed in the another idiotic idea waste basket, which it obviously was and still is. A currency without a country is just to silly an idea to allow a worldwide financial collapse. Let’s get back to German Marks, French Francs, Italian Lira etc. as soon as possible please; preferably before we are all standing in a soup line.
What a financial Tower of Babel the world has become. Politicians talking endless amounts of incoherent babble, central bankers printing money and rigging markets, citizens taking to the streets with rage and disgust. Something has to be done quickly and decisively to restore order and sanity. They say necessity is the mother of invention, I cannot think of a time when the world needed a respected leader and a new economic idea to arrive on the scene. Austerity and endless political babble meetings have proven their worthlessness as solutions.
@ TheTrivium4Tw That was quite a posting. Jellyfish is the correct word. Left you a Thank You for your exceptional, poignant post.
@pipefit Putting Ash in the same league as James Turk or Jim Sinclair on the subject of finance, especially inflation deflation analysis is a mistake. They are the deans of the subject matter, qualified, have been correct for decades, specialized in the topic their entire lives, have assumed much wealth from practicing what they preach. Ash may qualify in the brain department but lacks the focus and track record due a lot to his age. You forgot to mention Jim Grant, who is smarter than all of them put together.
So China is not immune to a severe recession, no country is. How long will it last; more importantly what will their response to it be? Big money printing, currency smash down, massive military expenditures, economic marriage to Japan? Who knows, but it will not be the end of the world or of China. Severe recessions are as common as rainy days.
Shooter (Karl Malden) talking to The Cincinnati Kid Steve ( Steve McQueen) “Kid, before I met up with Lancey Howard, like you, I thought I was the the best poker player in the whole world. Let me tell you something kid, he “Gutted Me, he Gutted Me real bad.” Lancey Howard ( Edward G Robinson after Gutting The Kid. ” Your good kid, your real good; but as long as Lancey Howard is alive you can never be better than second best, so just get used to living with it.” Just wanted to share a fond memory of one of my favorite movies. Remember, don’t sit down at a poker table with Lancey Howard!
@ RE Thanks, Would not even try to improve or add a thing to your most perceptive comments. TAE has been placed on my back burner of sites visited for your stated reasons, and will remain there no matter if S&I return or not.
How can you give human attributes to an inert metal, or paper, object that cannot do a thing without being picked up or utilized by a human for something? I argue this same silliness all the time about gold. Hard to believe it is even being discussed. It is just so damned elementary
@ RE Read Lord Of The Flies RE. There was no money on that island of castaways, The first thing they did was kill the smartest kid amongst them, they called him Piggie, as they split into warring factions. Blaming money for our evil ways doesn’t hold up, but I would certainly agree it causes some of it.
Money may have become abstract but the people that have a lot of it lavish themselves with a lot of real things with it. Yachts, mansions, luxury cars and clothing etc. Methinks they view it as more thn an abstract thought.
@TheTrivium4TW If there was ever and icon for TPTB to laugh at us in public and show us how little they regard us and our intelligence it is this despicable Corzine character. His smirking, grinning, Mickey The Dunce act testimony made me nauseous. If he isn’t living proof that they control the press,media, legal system, regulatory agencies etc. What or who is? Any doubts I had about an inner circle of arrogant greedy swine running the show were cured by him. He makes me ashamed as well as angry at the corruption in the system.
Everyone is going to need a bailout soon. Let’s not go down the list one at a time with the attendant nitty gritty. Can they print there way out of this debt horror or can’t they? Therein lies the rub.
And, after Big Brother FDR hosed all the sheeple and took their gold for his own stash, he declared it illegal to own and declared his paper to be the true and only legal money. The sheeple and even the sheep herders believe it to this day; even though the gold ascended from 20 to about 2000 and the printable legal money went the other way in value by roughly the same amount. The wise central bankers of the world also sold off much of their worthless gold for the new legal paper money now that it was no longer as good as gold. They even made it their reserve asset it was so wonderful.
Just you wait till mommy and daddy get back and take your toy pistol away Mr Paladin. Your gunslinger days are almost over; why couldn’t you have just behaved? You are in very deep do do and have no one to blame but yourself.
@ pipefit New currency probably a much easier way and a lot quicker. Could pull an over the weekend game blaming counterfeiters and drug money laundering as the reason. The sheeple would buy it and probably wouldn’t even care as long as their plastic cards still worked everywhere. They think paper and plastic are money anyway.
@ Andrew P Bulls eye Andrew, it is obvious that the rally is them in the S&P futures pit already. Great post except for calling the article nonsense. I called one of Ashvin’s posts by the same name a while back, while exposing similar views, and realized it was a big mistake. Getting back to Helicopter Ben, we ain’t seen nothing yet if this guy gets spooked by the economic outlook.
Would rather hear what they have to say, and watch their actions when they are looking square in the face of a dozen TBTF’S collapsing, a depositors run on the banks, and a collapsing stock market for back ground music. Some of these CB dullards might actually think we are in the beginning stages of a grand economic recovery. Have a strong feeling most tunes will change considerably when they are staring down the big black hole.
What an excuse they now have to double the price of hamburg. We tried to help you and provide you with safe, affordable, nutritious beef laced with ammonia and pink slime, but alas, we are bowing to your wishes and giving you what you want at double the price. We were trying to do God’s work, and like Goldman Suchs we were misunderstood. I can hear them roaring with laughter at today’s chateaubriand and French chateau wine luncheon.
@ pipefit Right on pipefit. Would love to know where some of the posters here buy their groceries, gasoline, heating oil etc. The big real estate bust is a crock of —- also. Shanties around my neck of the woods that sold for 18,00 thirty years ago are now at 290, 000 after having collapsed in the words of the deflationists from 415, 000, due to reckless speculation. What a joke. Hyperinflation here we come. Shadow Stats is a great site. Mr Williams is a no nonsense straight shooter.
@ RE So the crashed out no job private sector has to provide full employment and outlandish wages to the unproductive public sector in order to keep the ship afloat? You could be correct, but as you say RE, this entire situation is a real problem that has to be solved very soon.
Glad to see the public sector finally joining the party. They have been watching the private sector job loss movie for far too long from their taxpayer provided ivory towers. Perhaps it will have greater meaning for them now when they read about a major corporation moving to China or India, double digit youth unemployment rates,untold millions on food stamps etc. A re awakening of the communal spirit perhaps. I haven’t been this sad since I read about Nancy Pelosi losing her private 747 and its attendant chef and bartender perks.
If it was a chimera Mr Paladin, why did they ever have to break the link? In the case of the US by an official proclamation from tricky Dick Nixon.
Mr Paladin, You have a problem with the gold bug part of it because it doesn’t circulate. The paper money that is circulating now was a derivative of gold. The link was broken by the banksters so they could print all the paper money and create all the credit that they wished. That is why we are in a financial disaster. The gold will be resurrected and its link restored to the derivative paper in the resurrection of the deflated world economy.
