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Heat pumps are very popular in New Zealand…though the term seems to mean different things in different countries. In North America, I was under the impression that heat pumps exploited the difference in temperatures between the earth underground and the air above ground. In New Zealand, they’re essentially “reverse air conditioners” which syphon off the warmth in exterior air and pump it into the house interior. As such, they are more efficient for home heating than a simple wire coil plugged into the wall (i.e., the traditional electric heater).
ashvin post=2946 wrote: I don’t want people to think that I am a strong advocate of the Mad Max, total anarchy overnight scenario. When I say “Europe will be FUBAR”, that’s not really what I mean. When WWI and then WWII erupted over there, it’s not as if all life came to a grinding halt and people thought, “WOW, I can’t even imagine that this is happening right now!” or “I never could have imagined that this would happen”. I don’t think that’s necessarily what we will be thinking, either.
[…..]If it’s not Greece exiting the EU that sets off a chain reaction, then it may very well be something else, and if it’s not that something else, then maybe the breakdown ends up being less rapid and less concentrated.BUT, no matter what, the breakdown will occur and our lives will be dramatically changed. Over here in the developed world, we hold sacred this idea that none of the consequences of collapse, either occurring now gradually or materializing more rapidly in the (near) future, will ever get TOO painful for us or will be too much for us to handle. I believe that idea needs to be shattered, and quickly, if people want to have a good chance of understanding the reality of the risks we face, and reacting appropriately. That’s really the message here.
I’ve been thinking about it a lot. (No surprise–how can we NOT think about this?) But at the moment, I’m increasingly sitting on the now rather contrarian side of the prediction, and I doubt Greece will exit in the next 6 months. Maybe not even first. Mainly because the recent Greek vote was not a vote for an exit. It was simply a vote AGAINST austerity, as evidenced by the highly fractured election results. The next election is framed much more as a vote for or against an exit, and I think the Greek people might surprise us by voting heavily in favour of one of the nearly-out-of-favour mainstream parties, crazy as that sounds. These parties are adjusting their platforms as we speak.
As you point out, Ash, when WWII hit, people probably weren’t thinking “I can’t believe this is happening.” Their world had deteriorated so much that the people knew it was coming. I don’t think the people of Europe, or the people of Greece, “know” an exit is coming, and so I think the impetus for such an exit is absent…yet. The exit comes when all is lost. The Greeks still truly hope they can go back to the way things were only a few short years ago. They really think they can reject austerity and stay in the Euro. And you know, given the mutually assured destruction Europe faces, they might just be right. Instead, the first exit might blindside us all and come from little Portugal, who we’ve been hearing almost nothing about of late.
Just more conjecture. But I think I’d be shocked by a Geek exit. And I think the Greeks would be shocked by it too. Which is why I don’t think it can happen yet. They have so much more to lose first before that happens. In short, the irony is they have to lose everything before the people really believe that the exit is worth it–and at that point they have nothing left.
Great rant.
And of course I know we’re fucked.
But it all still seems unreal. We are going to have to let go of SOMETHING… but we don’t want to. And so I have no idea what that “something” is. Greece is the case in point. They don’t want austerity, but they do want to stay in the Euro. They don’t want to balance their budgets (who does, really!) but Germany won’t keep siphoning off billions to keep the Greeks in cigarettes. I just can’t figure out how this will end. I actually think there is SOME small chance that Greece might STAY in the Euro, as they stand at the cliff’s edge facing something far more painful and unknowable. Papa Germany might be mean, but you know he’s there if you “behave”. It’s not the first time the poor will have been scared into accepting that they can only become poorer. Seems like a case of mutually assured destruction to me, and in such a scenario, I can imagine a very, very long stalemate.
Obviously, I’m not saying that is the right thing to do. I’m saying I just don’t see a solution in any way shape or form, but can’t imagine the alternative either! Can you? I mean, can you really IMAGINE the alternative collapse? It’s too surreal, and so even if it’s probable, we just won’t do what we have to do to really prepare because it’s like a pitch for a cheesy Hollywood sci-fi movie. Or maybe the reality we end up with will be even stranger than our fiction?
Or, because I simply can’t make my mind up entirely, things really do unravel as chaotically as Ash believes. Like when your mum dies, you just always knew it would hapen, but never really believe it.
RE, you were seeking to compare Ecuadorian debt to Greek debt. Keep in mind that both countries would be essentially repudiating all their debt, period. CH Smith notes in his article that the plan is dependant on a total 100% repudation of debt. By adopting the US dollar, it gives the Greeks some time to rebuild without being totally hyper-inflated into non-existence. At the moment, if they were quick, the Greeks could convert all their Euros to Dollars at a very reasonable exchange rate, all things considered!
einhverfr,
Do check out Charles Hugh Smith’s latest, in which he persuasively argues that Greece’s best option may be at least a temporary adoption of the US dollar:
Another great TAE article that cuts to the chase, Ash.
I was confounded by the Spiegel article when I read it on Zero Hedge. It made no sense to me that the EU would continue to financially support Greece even after an exit. At least, it made no sense given the players involved. Because of course a humanitarian EU would indeed continue to help Greece for many reasons, not the least of which is that they’d have a starving population next door, with all the inherent risks of civil war so close to other populations, which is just no good at all. But we aren’t talking about humanitarians here are we.
Indeed, I fully expect the exact OPPOSITE of Spiegel’s article. If Greece is first to leave, the EU will strike down upon Greece with great vengeance and furious anger so as to make a very clear example to any other peripheral country thinking of exiting next. No matter what, an exit MUST appear to be the truly WRONG thing to do. No matter what route Greece chooses in an exit, the EU will make it exorbitantly difficult on Greece. The EU will welcome civil war in Greek borders because then they can say to Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland (and France?!), “see what happens if you leave!”
Reverse Engineer post=2856 wrote: [IMHO, it is our JOB as Bloggers and Commenters to get the MESSAGE out NOW to as many people as we can, as fast as we can. I write at a furious pace to achieve that goal. I will NOT GIVE UP on Humanity. Not so long as these Keyboard fingers will cruise at 100WPM or even BETTER than that sometimes when I really get going. Not so long as the Internet remains up and running, and even after that if I am still walking the earth I will find another means to get the message out.
SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CANI admire your commitment to getting the word out, RE. Once one begins to understand how serious things could get, it’s difficult not to think about it and try to impress upon others that they should at the very least take minimal precautions. But even getting friends and family to listen isn’t always easy.
Don’t you find the ZH articles interesting? Tyler is incredibly smart. He ultimately has a hyper-inflationist POV, which diverges from TAE, but otherwise, I get a lot of insight from his articles.
Now, the comments section on ZH is deplorable, I agree. While I’ve always found the comments on TAE to be extremely informative, in the ZH comments there’s just so much vitriole, racism, anti-semitism sexism, homophobia and moronism to be worth any time at all. With all the -isms in their comments, they hardly talk about finance at all.
I agree YesMaybe…except it’s precisely why grand conspiracy theories (versus good old fashioned, never say die greed) fail to persuade me.
Keep in mind I’m distinguishing between an undeniable interest of the top .1% to keep what they have and get more versus a cabal of geniuses working in perfect lock-step to mastermind the entire bull market, collapse, sub-prime fiasco, Lehman collapse, foreclosure crisis and gold price suppression. That’s the grand conspiracy that seems to suggest the top .1% has been planning the run-up and collapse for years and years, and it simply requires far too much cooperation, secrecy and collusion than these sharks are capable of. I mean, who would be at the top of this conspiracy pyramid. Right, right, the elusive illuminati or faceless Rockefellers…who are really just The Architect from the Matrix, and not really even human beings. Apparently it’s NOT Jamie Dimon though!
Anyhow, we digress. What’s most interesting really is that something is rotten in Denmark, and it has us nervously refreshing Zero Hedge, doesn’t it?
That’s an interesting addition to the hypothesis, RE–that JPM is trying to defend against the attacks from other banks.
And it would only underline how truly voracious the players within the system really are. Rather than all sitting together colluding on a global take-over conspiracy, each of them will happily eat the other, until only one man is standing.
The ponziworld article that RE references in his Diner post is just excellent, albeit chilling. I think it supports everythign TAE has been arguing for over the years too.
https://ponziworld.blogspot.ca/2012/05/this-time-will-be-different.html
Reverse Engineer post=2802 wrote: I’ve got tomorrow covered, and the day after that also. In fact I am pretty well covered for a couple of years. I have no debts, I own no property to encumber me or trap me or to tax, I have plenty-o-money, i’m still employed and I live in about the lowest population zone on the face of the earth you can live and still have a full time connection to the Internet. Given these facts, I am free to look out just as far ahead as I would like. Looking out into the future 10 or 20 years and saying “Money will always be with us” might be true; or it might not be true. FRNs in the Bank of Sealy are better than Digibits in your BofA ATM account, but exaclty how much better they are when there is nothing left to buy is an open question. ” “Put your remaining wealth somewhere where no-one can get their hands on it.” is out of the question. No such place exists onthe face of the earth.RE
RE, I admire anyone who goes to the lengths you have gone to “prepare”. Your experiences will be very valuable as the crisis evolves. However, given the glacial pace of actual “collapse” (we’re talking Mad Max territory here), I think it weighs heavily in favour of Ilargi’s argument that we will have money for a lot longer than you think. And that means one has to be prepared financially as well as doing all the smart things you are doing. The US dollar cannot vanish at the same moment as the Euro or the Yen. There will be a pretty clear window of time between Euro and Yen collapse and a US dollar collapse, because we are not all going to start trading nothing but moccasins for food until every last shred of faith in the status quo has been stripped away. Most people are still within the status quo and can’t imagine anything else. When they’re hungry, they’ll be very thankful for a dollar to buy a bag of groceries. Of course if you have your bag of groceries already provided for, you’re ahead. But there will always be things you can’t provide on your own. Money in the form of real hard currency will be in increasingly short supply. It already is. Barter will rise only because money will be scarce. All these guys online who would love to buy every single ounce of gold from any “gold doubter” have a very perceptible obstacle in front of them…they need MONEY to buy said gold. A monetary system has an incredible efficiency to it, and when people are stretched to the limits of survival, the most efficient system will remain for some time yet. It’s why money has lasted so long and will last longer than the gold bugs believe. I agree with TAE that you’re well advised to do “both” if you can afford to–prepare to have money first, and then think about gold once all your other bases are covered, like land, etc.
Interesting point, sangell. I wonder if this decision for Dimon to wear the debacle is simply a ncecessity rather than identifying a trader, which would in turn identify the trade itself, which would precipitate an attack on that position before JPM can unwind it and save themselves from even more losses. Although that then begs the question of why JPM had to make the announcement in the first place. Someone who understands that marketplace better could probably elucidate the reasons. How would this loss show up if Dimon had NOT come out with a press conference admission? Would this loss have been immediately apparent to all? If not, then why the front-running damage control? Seems like it may be preparing us for something much bigger, no? And doesn’t everyone already know which trader is making said trade, making any obfuscation by Dimon needless? Unless we’re wrong, and it’s something else. Otherwise, might as well name the trader, if it’s so deductively obvious to everyone. Something smells fishy.
Great article. Like TAE of old. Succinct and persuasive.
Reverse Engineer, you reiterate a number of questions raised by anyone who fears a financial and social unwind. But TAE has been offering many ideas that can help to mitigate the risks you mention. I don’t think TAE has ever said there is a foolproof way to protect against so many risks. I’m sure some folks who do everything “right” will still get caught at the wrong place and the wrong time. No one knows where the precisely “right” place or “right” time will be, but the more of us who are aware and thinking ahead, the more of us who have a chance to survive it and advocate for a better financial/social/political landscape in the future.
Yes, Frank, I agree that timing remains the most difficult hurdle. I take a fair bit of “solace” (and of course, an equal measure of horror) from the fact that everything continues to play out exactly as Stoneleigh has suggested. But the timeframe is confounding. This leaves us with a definite risk that TAE’s underlying message is rejected as listeners are worn down by “waiting”. But isn’t that exactly what the banks and governments would want? If they can’t change the direction of the tide, they can slow it down with such determination that we don’t know which way it’s really flowing. Keep in mind that an incredibly long list of indicators continue to pile up suggesting we are in a downward spiral, while the lack of a precipitous “collapse” mixed in with exhausting “positive indicators” make I&S’s job a lot harder! Too many variables. A huge amount of momentum on the side of the status quo (equal in magnitude to the bubble itself). And so we go bankrupt ever so gradually, and then, in theory, very suddenly.
I don’t think this conspiracy is impossible. It’s so brilliant that it should be true. But I don’t buy it mainly for the reason I stated. We can retroactively concoct all kinds of scenarios to explain human events, but this one is hard to swallow in the absence of any written conjecture over hundreds of years. Note that the conspiracies you have pointed out here have all been exposed eventually because someone “talked”…and they talked within only a decade! Also, they were TRYING to keep it a secret. I think this particular conspiracy about smallpox would not have been kept secret. No one would have been trying. Why bother? Native Indians couldn’t read, and there were no newspapers. Indeed, European powers probably would have celebrated their ingenious method for wiping out mass numbers of their “enemy”.
Again, it’s possible. And worth considering and investigating. I think it’s valuable exploration. But there is just as good a reason to believe the opposite at this point: smallpox was an inadvertent victory for the conquering Europeans. I agree we’re capable of dastardly plans. But we’re also chaotic and unpredictable. There’s usually someone in the mix who has an alternate agenda and then talks.
I’m glad people demand truth and look into the charades of the status quo. So Doomsday Diner serves a valuable purpose. But I see many conspiracy theories, and I don’t have to believe them all. Sometimes it seems like people want to believe the conspiracy because the truth of the matter is too difficult to bear–that we are fairly predictable, mean and short-sighted and each somehow complicit in the big mess we’re in.
The problem I continue to have with all grand conspiracy theories is that people are terrible at keeping secrets. In no uncertain terms, something would have been written down! The European monarchs and their advisors would have absolutely no reason to keep this a secret amongst themselves. They wouldn’t have to worry that the North American Indians were going to read about their plan on the Internet in advance. And yet, there is nothing written anyhwere, in any form, to substantiate the conspiracy at all. It would have been a very devious and effective plan if they’d come up with it. But the lack of written conjecture from the period is seriously damaging to that theory.
I continue to see human beings as highly adaptable, selfish and short-sighted animals. We quickly adapt to make the best of a terrible situation, especially at the expense of other humans’ energies. But our ability to consciously collude together over long periods of time is beyond our capacity. It’s not our character. We’re much better at saying, “Hey, wow, look, everyone’s going broke cuz we all spent too much (being the short-sighted sods we are)…I know, let’s just go with this now and buy up all their assets on the cheap–who cares if they can’t eat!”
We’re just very selfish and very good at opportunistically profiting from misfortune.
Interesting that the majority of Greek voters would still want to remain in the Euro Zone, even while they vehemently protest the austerity measures imposed by that Euro Zone. Meanwhile, a number of insightful bloggers advocate Greece’s complete withdrawl so that it can start over, with a clean slate, despite some rather extreme, short-term pain (e.g., hyper-inflation under a new Drachma). Then I read this comment on Zero Hedge that I think has some merit:
“Greece pulling out of the euro and printing drachmas and saying to the IMF and ECB, the holders of its remaining debt, go to hell ACCOMPLISHES NOTHING.
The ECB and IMF can ignore their statement and carry the debt and compound it. Forever.
They can’t escape it by saying “we aren’t paying”. That doesn’t work. They owe the money and they will pay or it will be collected by confiscating goods they might ever export. The EU could put a special tax on any oil allowed into Greece. There are many things that can be done to collect the debt.
They can’t just walk in front of a microphone and declare that they default and think that the debtors have to accept that.
There is no EU charter mechanism for leaving the Euro or the EU. Either voluntarily or involuntarily. The debt they owe is in Euros. They can’t print drachmas and pay it because the debtors will refuse that and demand payment in Euros.
None of this is going to work. This is all posturing.”
I do agree that, if Greece is the first to leave, the rest of Europe will punish Greece mercilessly so as to make it an example to any other EU country that wants to try the same thing. A defiant exit has to look like the “wrong” thing to do, not the right thing to do. But even after they have made an example of Greece, I can see the EU choking Greece to get its money back. Greece cannot survive alone in this world.
At the same time, there is some conjecture that Germany wants Greece to withdraw, so that it can be rid of the place without having to actually be the “bad guy” and boot Greece out. I still don’t see them willingly letting Greece walk away from the debts though.
Well, I it is a true shame to lose El G from the conversations here, if only because there are too few of “us” to begin with. And by “us” I mean those who are willing and able to engage in these conversations at all. I mean, seriously, have you tried talking to your family and co-workers lately? They won’t even entertain square one let alone conspiracy one-hundred.
El G is an artist and out-of-the-box thinker. And those kinds of guys are hard to keep down on the farm at the best of times, so I guess I am not surprised he’s bolted.
I do agree with El G to the extent that there are a lot of concerted efforts to wrest more control from the common-person’s hands. We’re being robbed of civil liberties as quickly as our cash. But I have to say that grand conspiracies, orchestrated to the degree that El G believes in them, don’t really ring true to me. The complex system we live in swallows everything, including TPTSB. The laws of the universe trump every man’s design. The controls used by TPTSB become illusory at some point.
That isn’t to say we won’t be made to suffer greatly. I think El G makes an excellent point when he refers to the lack of personal control the slave had in the face of the massive system. But while the current system has the upper-hand, I have to acknowledge that human-led hegemonies need other humans, and that’s the problem right there. We’re too tricky and fickle and wily to keep such perfect control on course for very long. It starts to unravel. Secrets get out. Backs are stabbed.
I think of Mike Ovitz, the kingpin of Hollywood in the 90s. He transformed the movie industry, representing the biggest players, like Tom Cruise, brokering their deals, and spilling a lot of (metaphorical) blood in the process. He was DESPISED but seemed indominatable. Until he made a mistake. In the end, he was crushed and is essentially irrelevant now. Yes, “the system” is still there, mean as ever. But if there was a conspiracy in Hollywood at the time, Ovitz was driving it, no question about that. Things changed, though. Like they’re changing all the time. Because humans are tricky and fickle and wily. Which is why I like the ones who are honest and call a spade a spade and I know where I stand with ’em, like El G. Which is why I will miss him here. Even though I don’t buy the grand conspiracy.
One of the more unusual “deflationist” perspectives has been posted over at ZeroHedge:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-cracked-dam-and-feds-small-thumb
I would love to hear if anyone finds merit in the argument. It’s an odd one. Essentially, the writer tries to demonstrate that a drastic deflation will accompany total US dollar fiat currency collapse. In fact, the writer insists that the USD collapse will be a driver behind deflating asset prices.
Typically, a deflationist would be arguing that US dollars will appreciate in purchasing power in a deflation, as cash is the only king, and the US dollar will be the least ugly choice among currencies. The only way I can imagine arguing for deflation AND a USD collapse is if you are really arguing for hyper-inflation in all currencies, including the USD, except you expect gold to appreciate wildly as the only safe-haven asset. It’s hard to imagine a single commodity like gold appreciating wildly in any deflation…but have a read and tell me what you think of it all.
Oh, just wanted to add, though: of course deflation will bring down the costs of movie production with it. And yes, I agree credit will vanish faster than the costs can come down, and so there will be less entertainment product made as a result. Less risk in the riskiest business of all surely means fewer movies. But I do expect the directors and crews and movie stars will quietly cut their rates, as the budgets shrink. We’ll still see the movie stars on the screen, I have no doubt. Just a little less often, and they won’t be making $25 million per picture. Hey, on the brighter side, there are good reasons to believe that movies will get better when the budgets come down too.
The exponential expansion in credit was in absolute lockstep with the expansion of “product” across media platforms (the 1000 channel universe, the “multi-plex”, etc.). Now there is too much to watch. No one can keep up, as niche markets divide us into a million micro-demographics. I think it has become a rather sad state of affairs. While there were some exemplary creative achievements, I feel something is lost. I have a nostalgia for the era (which I barely caught) when everyone waited for the one big movie that dominated our consciousness for years (Star Wars for example) and everyone saw Johnny Carson the night before. It’s been said that we can never have another Beatles or Rolling Stones, because the music business is now too fractured, driven as it is by ultra-high turnover of art (product!) and artists. So I sort of welcome a shrinking of that marketplace (though don’t welcome watching great people painfully lose their livlihoods as a result).
Industries like the Canadian film/TV industry will be in for a much greater shock however. More than 99% of all Canadian TV productions “lose” money–they are primarily financed by the government in the interests of protecting national culture from the big American juggernaut. Through this almost total subsidization of an entire industry, companies grew exponentially (there’s that word again) by producing (usually terrible) TV shows that never made back anything even close to the original government investment. When financial credit truly tightens, these cultural subsidies will vanish fast, and an entire “illusion of an industry” will vanish with it. Because when something never makes a profit, can it really be called an industry anyhow?
The increasingly vampiric councils here in New Zealand have certainly dissuaded us from establishing our doomstead just yet. We just fear that the need to feed the monster (and it’s big in New Zealand, considering the size of the population) will compell councils to increase property taxes to the breaking point. If you have some money set aside, I think there’s a risk it will be eaten up with massive property taxes. It’s a dilemma though, because I know we’re also wasting precious time. Once we finally have our own land, I’m looking forward to raising some chooks (that’s what they call chickens Down Under).
I agree pikipiki about the Kiwis’ refusal to hear anything negative. I’m from the U.S., and so I saw first-hand how a relgious devotion to real estate can bite the population in the arse. But honestly, the devotion to real estate is far, far more maniacal here in New Zealand. I’ve never met so many people for whom real estate is the one and only investment and saviour for their woes, present and future. Despite the fact that this pet investment has been biting the feeders’ hand lately, the Kiwi resolve remains unwavering. Real estate only goes up in New Zealand apparently. It’s different here. You get all the same reasons: limited land, limited housing, commodity growth, you can’t stop Australia, you can’t stop China, every rich person in the world wants to buy in New Zealand, etc., etc.
Interesting analogy with Iceland. I think there are some worthwhile comparisons with New Zealand. I’m not sure how “corrupt” the banks are, but they have a stranglehold on everything, and are woefully exposed to the Kiwis’ religious fervour for real estate.
Thanks el g. It’s something I want to research further. The NZD has been riding high for the past couple of years. Which for an exporting country can’t be a good thing! I just feel like there has to be a catch–you can’t just offer these super high interest rates to the world, which are then exploited by holders of 0% currencies (like the US dollar or Yen) without attracting huge instability. But I need to understand the dynamics more. Something isn’t right here.
Would be nice to organise a Waiheke Island talk, if you guys have the room for it. It’s a unique community of 8,000 permanent residents that swells to double or triple that on sunny weekends — and only 40 minutes ferry from Auckland. Very alternative culture (mixed in with the super rich nowadays). If you want help booking a Waiheke venue or I can facilitate any organising of such a talk, I’d be happy to do so.
My bet is, once the mechanics of this forum are fine-tuned, you’ll much prefer this new way of commenting and conversing versus the old blog comments system. But I agree it’s an adjustment.
I find it hard to find Kiwis who are thinking in terms of a deflationary scenario. Much more common to hear the dogma of the status quo over and over again: real estate and commodity prices in New Zealand will go up forever. Hopefully with TAE coming to NZ, I’ll get an opportunity to connect with a few more like-minded individuals. It’s not a giant country and could be an ideal location for the sharing of knowledge and sustainable living communities.
Well in theory, the forum format versus blog comments SHOULD create even MORE of a community than we had before. But I agree something is definitely getting lost in the forum format as it stands. I know it’s a work in progress. But having been an active user of other forums in the past, I know how much better the community communication can be than blog comment sections. Community members can start topics which become self-generating “articles” in their own right. It’s much easier to go back and find useful information too. But anything more than a “click” to get to the forum is too tricky. Plus, I don’t see the utility of repeating the original article as the first”post” in the forum. The reason why I’m clicking on the forum is that I have either read the article and want to start the discussion (so don’t need it filling up the first page of the forum) or I want to engage in conversations entirely unrelated to the article (but otherwise related to the themes and concerns of TAE in general). I’m not sure that the layout of the topics for the forum is intuitive yet. It might be that I’m used to the layout of other forums…but internet forums tend to follow some similar patterns that we’ve become used to and which TAE is sort of bucking right now.
One function I miss here, that I’ve used often in other very active forums, is the “What’s New” button. It simply sorts a list of all the active “topics” that have had recent activity. It’s not sorted by theme/subject, but simply lists in order of the most recently active. That way you can engage in the most lively conversations going on right now. I think it’s currently very hard to find where the members are congregating. Someone might post on “Water” which goes unseen by someone posting on “Finance”, etc. So we’re all divided. But with What’s New, you get a time-stamped list of latest “threads” in the forum, sorted by the most recent “activity”. I see the “REcent Activity” button, but it still seems to prioritise the recent article posted by TAE, rather than bringing attention to the discussion thread itself. Might seem a small distinction, but I think it’s impeding conversation.
Great article. Nice to see you’re contributing to the new site el g.
As for the duration of said deflation, I find even the deflationists such as yourself tend to lean towards the notion of a shorter term period of deflation, as devastating as it might be, rather than a longer term one. My impression is that Nicole Foss has warned the deflation could be devastating in both scale AND duration–it might last much longer than we currently anticipate, like a decade or more. And so when I read your own predictions, which tend towards a relatively short deflationary window, I can’t help wondering if even the best deflationists are being tempered by the hyper-inflationists’ arguments.
In contrast, I feel that the current unwind is much slower than anyone could have expected, including TAE. Which only leads me to believe that the entrenched powers will draw things out as long as possible, and I would be inclined to believe that will include a long deflation too.
This is very interesting to me. I have mentioned before how much I like the idea of labour-for-knowledge exchanges. We’re in New Zealand, and planning a sustainable dwelling built from shipping containers as one option. It helps that my partner is a professional builder. But there is an awful lot to learn. I wonder if the Australian eartship will offer the labour-for-knowledge exchange that the original ones offer in New Mexico.
It is very, very difficult to take what is happening seriously. It’s a fascinating and frightening debacle as it unfolds. But it is extremely difficult to “take seriously” when everything flies in the face of the things we’ve been trained to believe over our entire lifetime, and bigger more powerful entities don’t seem to want to help change our minds. You have to be a real “weirdo” to see through the smoke and mirrors and “take it seriously”.
Yes, I know birds shit on the roof. And things can die up on there too! But honestly, I’ve never heard of anyone getting sick from their un-boiled rainwater supply here. And there are literally thousands of rainwater collection tanks being used over decades here. It’s just something I’m curious about more than anything. I need to learn more about water and food independence. Thanks for the article!
We don’t boil the water from our roof either here in New Zealand. It does go through a filter though. One of those osmotic filters I think you call it. In fact, no one I know boils their rainwater from the roofs. I’m curious why this author thinks it necessary, other than being exceptionally cautious. Maybe it depends on where you live.
Anyhow, as someone who used to be dependent on city tap water, I simply love having my rainwater supply. It tastes a lot better. I was interested to read in this article that rainwater is considered superior to well water. I also just love the independence of sourcing my own water. I don’t think I’d ever wanna go back.
I don’t know how many of you read The Economic Collapse blog, but it’s simply excellent. Very well written and researched. It tends to lean a little more to th HI end-game, but only a little.
The latest post on Greece’s “depression” is sobering:
This Is What An Economic Depression Looks Like In The 21st Century
Yeah, the interviewer does seem to be a bit incredulous. But I find it’s a common reaction Down Under. This part of the world has been amazingly insulated from the effects of the GFC so far. Things are starting to turn for the worse only now, but few people in Australia and New Zealand seem to have put the pieces of the puzzle together. Then again, I would really like to know how many people in other countries are any more aware. If you poll your co-workers, how many of them have even considered the possibility, however remote, that there could be a bank run + bank holiday + long-term mass unemployment in their country within the next 3 years?
They will crush Greece before and after default. Unlike Mish Shedlock, I don’t think that life “will go on” after Greece defaults. Not for the Greeks anyhow. Because at the point that default becomes inevitable, then a new kind of firewall is erected to protect the rest of Europe. And that includes making default so painful, and so apparently devastating to the soul of the country, that all other weak countries will try anything not to default too. If Greece really can get back on its feet by defaulting, then the other countries will follow su it. But if Germany ensures that Greece’s default leads to nothing but chaos and pain, then Portugal and others will think twice! I think Germany will fan the flames once Greece defaults, and “aid” will actually be designed to rub salt in the wounds rather than heal the country.
