Debt Rattle August 28 2026

 

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    Rembrandt van Rijn Old Man Sitting 1631 • Kuwait, Qatar Ramp Up Hormuz Oil, Oman-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears (ZH) • Iran and Oman Agree to Share Stra
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle August 28 2026]

    #248575
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    How the USA Got Rich. Hint: NOT the ‘American System’ of Industrial Protection

    #248576
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    The Ecocidal History of the U.S.

    #248577
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Today and the plunder continues

    #248578
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    They have become a class of parasites

    #248579
    Dr. D
    Participant

    “In Dolly Parton’s theology, God and acceptance shared the same stage” The Associated Press

    See what I mean? “God called: he said you can do whatever you want.”

    Article: “But for many Christian members of the LGBTQ+ community who struggled to reconcile their sexuality and gender identity with the intolerant beliefs they were taught” – Article reputedly about Dolly Parton, after spending 95% bashing Christians.

    Glad to know those are the only people who matter. The only fact we need about your immortal soul is where you put your pee-pee. According to this author, there is no religion but homosexuality. That is the sum total of the message of all prophets worldwide. No other topics exist for God or for the culture at large.

    Thankfully this is perfectly normal and all the REST of every society worldwide for the last 10,000 years are the weird ones, ackshully. Weird how the nation you were born in happened to be perfect and everyone else was an idiot, but someone has to win the lottery I guess. That’s the objective, insightful reporting I’ve come to expect from AP.

    “It says here in this history book that luckily, the good guys have won every single time. What are the odds?” -Norm MacDonald”

    “Top Commanders Told Hegseth Not to Cut Civilian Protection Program, Poll Showed. He Did It Anyway.” –ProPublica

    The boss does what he wants and not the subordinates. This is a revelation and an offront. Hegseth is also DefSec, the top position. This is also news. But this makes sense coming from a group that can’t define what a Woman is: how would they be capable of knowing that far more elusive concept of having a “Boss”? Surely a “Boss” is whoever decides they are that moment, right?

    “Fed Governor Targeted by Trump Issues Defense Against Attempted Ouster
    Lisa D. Cook hit back at President Trump’s allegations that she had committed mortgage fraud.” The New York Times

    She literally committed open, provable financial fraud. Many times. This is what “Targeting” means. It means “We’re enforcing the law and prosecuting felonies for the first time in 20 years”. Oh wait, no: they are only removing her JOB, and NOT yet jailing her for provable financial fraud. They still throw a gear. But this is the NY Times: they would protect any rapist or criminal they can find worldwide.

    This is promoted and fed as a top news article, which is why I see it, not because I looked. So of a billion articles today, why is this the most important, Mr. Newsfeed? Yes, known criminals being punished for fraud – ever – IS news. But that’s not your headline, is it? This poor, sad felon, she dinno nuffin’ ‘bout no financial laws! That’s why she’s on the Fed! Regulating YOU. She and Geithner both. AND Biden, AND Pelosi, AND ….

    “‘I don’t think he’s dead,’ Trump says of Iranian leader amid speculation
    The Atlantic reported Tehran is “abuzz” with talk of Khamenei’s death and cited unnamed sources who speculated that he eventually died of his injuries.” USA TODAY

    USA Today, must be true. Especially if there are “Unnamed sources.” The more unnamed the better, I say!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHPV7i-gfj4 “Don’t hurt the face, I’m an Actor.”

    How do you kill a guy who was never real to begin with? Trump’s second double asks. Who is at least more convincing than Biden’s second double, 6 inches taller than yesterday.

    See what I mean? They’re asking, “Do you think they’ll keep this guy going and trot out his brand?” “Sure, There’s more mileage to be had and lying doesn’t cost anything. Why not?”

    “Republicans face midterm verdict as Iran war drags on longer than Trump promised
    The Iran war has reshaped the rapidly approaching midterm elections \.” ABC News

    Makin’ S—t up, Trump didn’t promise anything. He said “No forever wars” political blather that means nothing, we’re at least 99 years short of “Forever.” And Iran has not reshaped the midterms at all, ABC, which your polls clearly prove. But ABC knows ABC’s polls can’t be trusted.

    For instance, dismal dumbf—k Graham got in in South Carolina on Trump’s word alone. But heck, McConnell may be dead, who knows if as above, Lindsay’s been dead a year too and his sister has been the brains for years. Anyway proves Trump’s word is better than ever, so Iran absolutely can NOT be reshaping votes.

    ABC News reports it? It’s false. Don’t even bother checking, it’s false. They opened their mouth, haven’t even made a sound yet? It’s false.

    “The Trump impeachment figure lost in a stunning primary upset in Florida”

    No reshaping. Anyone MAGA is winning, roughly. Because everyone else is “Establishment”, Left or Right, makes no difference, they’re identical.

    “Exclusive: can Trump get an exit without calling it an exit?” Pepe Escobar

    Pepe, the man who would kill every man on earth rather than consider peace. Where’s my $200,000 dollar oil, Pepe? Where’s even my $200? Yesterday you backed-into the position that Trump controls the Straits. But we lost and already signed the surrender, boss. What gives?

    “Both sides are trying to create sufficient political space to move backward without publicly admitting they have moved backward.”

    Iran is surrendering. Pepe says. Got it. Wait: Why not just SAY that, Pepe, man?

    “Above all: he needs an exit that does not look like an exit.”

    As above, Trump needs no exit nor anything else at all. Bond guys are confirming the U.S. economy is raging, faster than anytime since the mid-80s. Midterms are not in play, for so, so many reasons. Trump himself doesn’t have to be re-elected, Oil is nowhere, very normal. US Dollar, bonds all awesome all our competitors, Japan, Germany, toast!

    Wtf would we ever “Exit”, man? For the love of God keep the strait closed and Iran just like this for a generation. They’re winning amazingly you say, so you won’t mind, right? Iran has never been better, stronger, happier, or more prosperous.

    So, once again: Tehran has not folded. On the contrary: demands remain very hard.”

    Totally agree! However Iran has no POWER to act or do anything. So matters not their will when they have no remaining assets to enforce it. I’ve been saying this for some 40 days now? Welcome to the party, pal.

    Pepe: Almost supernatural capacity for being wrong. Day after day.

    “A warning for the “West.” The cycle of plunder. They’ll migrate like fleas leave a dead organism.”

    You’re right! But there is no “West”. Everyone from all the other nations will migrate from them TO the U.S. Where am I going? Germany? Spain? England? Japan? F– no! And not Canada, which is measurably almost the WORST of them. Should have kept that chart, but I think of all G12 countries, Canada is dead-last over the last 20 years, rivaling Ukraine – not even close. I’ll find it sometime.

    “*No — Trump’s claim of “24 ships a day going through the Strait of Hormuz” is *not supported* by any verified data.**

    The word of the President and all his government is no longer “Verified Data” to be considered? Wow! I am SO on board with this, CoPilot! Now I want you not to believe ANYTHING, ANY government says, see how it works for ya. We’ll believe (checks notes) Political Action Committees and democratic political Corporations. And Raytheon. And not believe the NIH and Covid.

    Yup, people who read Top Secret reports all day are idiots! Now CoPilot tell me every Intel Agency is always dead-wrong. NOPE! CoPilot picks when the President and SecDef says is true, and when they’re not.

    Think for a second: IF you wanted to make a s—t ton of money and only had to turn off your transponder, to risk getting hit by a smoke bomb, would you do it? Uhhh…Yes? And they’re claiming ZERO captains and shipping companies on earth like money, that’s your argument? I mean, triple the numbers, they’re possible. ZERO? No way.

    No point carrying on line by line about how day after day proving Iran has nothing, economy is fine, midterms not in play. But let’s go back to bond traders, who are the most-right of any market, and who say the same. Trillions are flooding into the U.S., oil is nowhere at $80, USDX is 99 unchanged, gold barely around, not even covering past inflation, because every trader on earth has no idea what they’re doing.

    Okay, how have market predictions done the last 180 days? Did they predict then? All markets on earth are wrong you say, not one, not a few, ALL. How exactly? Wouldn’t we see spillover pressure, SOMEWHERE?

    The Yen trade is an example, it was reported therefore it was a lie. Apparently Bessant did NOTHING. He spoke. His plan is to set up funds to maybe do something in NOVEMBER, after the elections. The money he put in was not even a rounding error, laughable, like $4B in a $40,000B market. THIS is what got all the news to lose their minds about bailouts: what hasn’t happened yet.

    Okay, so what is he doing with it? Apparently, normalizing the Yield curve. That’s it. The market has been manipulated for so long, every price in it is junk. But we can’t get OFF manipulation cold-turkey, it will blow up and the patient will die. So he’s tipping the short bonds down to match the long bonds the Fed has no control over. “Time Preference of Money”. If you borrow LONGER it costs more. That’s it. He said Wall St is going to eat it, capital is going to Main St, so get with the program. And we has the money to keep things stable, so don’t worry about that in risk, we got your back. Just do work. The tiny amount of money he proposes CAN do this, which is healthy and needs to be done.

    “Martin Armstrong: Economic Collapse Has Started & the EU Will Break Up”

    EU is dead but the money will not flow to the U.S., which has everything including law and cheap energy, got it. It’s going to flow to the third planet off Betelgeuse. Use your head.

    “The Russians are being attacked by us, not the other way round”

    This is why America has no men, no money, and no weapons there. Oh by “Us” you mean ENGLAND? In that case, totally yes. England and Europe are the ONLY attackers of Russia.

    “The US is trying to break Canada up”

    World’s easiest solve: Stop screwing your people hollow. They have no need to join with us unless you make them, and honestly, pretty sure no one here wants them. You’re not a prize.

    “Michael Hudson: This Is How The Dollar System Will Actually Break | GEH w/ Radhika Desai”

    The dollar is stronger, deeper, more used, and better backed with assets and productive capacity than any time in the last 25 years. But you’re an Economist: look at the Bond market and the Currency trade percentage.

    “Data on Russia’s upcoming Missile Strike on BRITAIN was leaked after the CIA Boss visited MOSCOW”

    Ygtbfkm. I don’t have time for every dumb thing drunks and retards say. Use your head and analyze this.

    So Russia “Is just gonna” nuke London. Just, “Hey it’s Thursday, how’s the calendar look, Boris?” That’s your argument?
    NO but Russia might let it out to WARN people to FAFO. To the people. Anyone with brains knows this is bunk. SERIOUS bunk, but still bunk.

    “Simplicius, CIA Director’s Mystery Moscow Trip Sparks Wild Speculations
    ..WSJ theorizes that the visit may have something to do with the US’s intelligence…”

    You quoted WSJ? Simplicius is out of commission as a reference point forever in my estimation now. Nice to know you. But last few months…then last week I did a line by line, now this, the WSJ? Are you High AF, man? Respect yourself! Get off the Crack!

    “HOW CHINA FLIPPED THE SCRIPT OF IRAN WAR /Col Lawrence Wilkerson”

    Script is exactly the same. Nothing has changed. But I can say “Words” out my “Air hole.” Verbs are cheap, I was gonna breathe anyway, why not lie?

    #248580
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Glad to know the U.S. never invented like literally everything, the plow, the airplane, the internet, and went to the moon.

    Nope, never happened, no work was done because I have fee-fees about being mad now.

    #248586
    Dr. D
    Participant

    sin
    Ha ha! Fair’s Fair.

    Moody’s Downgrades Baltimore City’s Credit Rating Amid Population Collapse Every blue city. Every.
    Blue wave for elections. Waving Bye-bye.

    “”Most Jobs Will Disappear Forever”: Bill Gates Calls For Taxes On AI And Robots To Protect Jobs For Humans

    Billionaires and corporations just won’t pay them. Like Musk. They can transfer this money to the people using UBI: 1) That will make everyone on the planet a welfare queen, behaving badly, it is abhorrent to the human psyche 2) This will be more abhorrent as if you get uppity, they’ll shut your UBI off and you’ll starve. Or wait: Rich Pepo never act dat way. It has never been known.

    “White Prisoners In UK Being Forced To Convert By Muslim Gangs: Report
    One in five Muslim inmates now white as Islamist control grows behind bars…

    I suspect that’s a human rights violation? What’s the harm? A: They’re coming to your house as a gang after you get out. And wanting things. And the police will help them. Better not have a 12 year old.

    But that’s a crime! Yes, a British government specialty. Restrain them. Committing crimes is what governments do.

    “US Now Desperate To Manipulate Gold Price To $17,000-$20,000 Or Higher  KWN

    Whut? A minute ago the U.S. was desperate NOT to do this. Because that’s “The Dollar (system) Collapsing”.
    Everyone is desperate all the time. I wake up, desperate to get out of bed. Then I panic and eat desperate corn flakes.
    No one is desperate, no one is panicking. Generals general, make and run plans, then golf. Bessant sells bonds after tracking 200 markets and goes out for drinks at the best restaurants. Y’all run your lives on the emotions of 10 year olds, worried Chelsea doesn’t like you anymore. JUST BE NORMAL. Go to work. Just do things. No one is having emotions, they’re adults and think instead. Or everyone but YOU , I guess.

    “Trump says he believes Russia and the People of Ukraine are willing to make a deal, but that Zelensky is not.”

    That can’t be right. The U.S. is alone attacking Russia with no guns, money, or soldiers, while poor Europe looks on in horror, trying to stop us. (But doing nothing.) Right? That’s what I hear from everyone, especially the Alexes.
    While this looks like the US-Russia are ALLIES at least, coordinating their moves worldwide AGAINST Europe and the Globalists. Again. And again.

    ““An Iran-Oman framework for a ‘temporary joint maritime corridor’ is pulling oil lower. It remains difficult to envision how the US would sign off on this given the concurrent ratcheting up of economic pressure,” UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst wrote”

    I don’t understand. You say “Okay” and it’s done. There are no obstacles at all. Same as changing the names of lakes. You can Just Do Things. All things are possible. Just act. You’re living in a prison of your mind.

    “It may be to the regime’s capacity to function as a coherent government.”

    This happened the instant Project Mosaic came into effect. Iran ceased to be a country, but is now 31 countries. Okay then, but that has consequences.

    “Washington’s secondary sanctions reach further into the Chinese “teapot” refineries and shell-company networks that make the evasion possible.”

    Just throwing this in, Bessant is attacking CANADIAN Banks, isn’t he? Or will here? Canada has some of deeply nefarious banks, TD, Scotia, who are regularly implicated in breathtaking frauds around them. So I’d eat my hat if they didn’t have dealings with Iran too, as a front and service corridor to the British dark banking system. This DOES match the breakoff of trade negotiations, although that may still be coincidence. This is a good example of “We’re not sanctioning Iran”. We’re sanctioning YOU. You are all the ones who signed on that Iran was a terrorist network back when. Now act like it when you’re making billions in profits banking for them, same as Drug Cartels and Arms Dealers. You signed on, then raised prices while banking every criminal worldwide.

    Again, Iran is not “Bartering” and shipping out Rials on a donkey. The numbers are too large, same as we are not shipping heroin out of Afghanistan in a technical: the volumes means it can only leave in one C130 after another, with the full support of the United States. And you say they “Can’t” be shut off? How? No one’s ever tried, ‘cause it’s certainly possible if you try at all.

    “Iran” is also like the rest of them, the Escobars, the Soviets, all ship their kids to Paris and Eton, and they need to pay for those Swiss ski vacations and private schools like North Korea does, and Editors from the NY Times who are “Just normal poor girls” and not privileged at all. So they are BANKING. In a huge way. In Zurich. And everyone knows it. Don’t piss on Bessant and tell him it’s raining. EVERYBODY KNOWS, Mr. Cohen.

    “• Secretary Marco Rubio Suspends all Visa Reviews and Interviews (CTH)

    More than this, The U.S. said “Oh yeah, I mean, obviously your Visa interview is in your home in India, ‘cause it wouldn’t be legal for you to be in the U.S. yet, right? “Oh right!” …all illegals fly home and book the interview.

    “Oh yeah, change of plans: due to unexpected volume of applicants, we can only get you an appointment in 2049, June maybe. We’ll call you then, Mr. Mumbai.”

    So another million fly home and are trapped. Trapped in their HOME. Oh noes! Not “Home”! How dare you send me to my country with all my family and not taking an American job!”

    Oh well, just can’t trust governments and bureaucracies, I guess.

    Other news: We are deporting people to any country we feel like. Like Cubans being dropped into Central Congo. Here’s a phone for your human rights lawyer. Maybe you can think about how much less expensive it would be to, you know, leave at your own will next time, and not f—k with the entire combined U.S. Government. It has been suggested, I dunno, somewhere in the past, that the U.S. government can be capricious, violent and unjust? YOU yourself said we were, rioted, waved a Mexican flag on a burning police car, and…this?

    …This man stays up nights beating people to a pulp for amusement, and your plan is to…blackmail that man? Well good luck!

    This is where I say “What they believe they don’t believe, they actually believe something different.” and yeah, we all know. You’re not fooling anybody, you’re just a punk. We just haven’t run out of patience to do anything about it yet. Even these moves are “All in good fun” practical joke stuff. Don’t make us lose patience.

    Remember last time that happened, two cities got nuked and we weren’t sorry. Even now. Just apologize to the man and carry on with your day.

    Now. While we find your antics amusing and merely play practical jokes in return, Europe may not be in an equally jocular mood. Perhaps do a Steve Miller and Take the money and run.

    “. is New York City, a city whose white ethnic population is only 16% of the population still an American city?”

    Not really the point, but aren’t like half of them illegal? And therefore not Americans at all? Legally, socially, historically, culturally? At all? See: London.

    “53 years ago the French response was to dismiss Raspail’s effort as a dystopian novel and do nothing.”

    As with American Conservatives since 1949. We said about Hollywood, The Authoritarian State, Communism, the Pill, and everything else correctly for generations. Literally no observation. Just as dumb a minute later after being right non-stop since, I dunno, Thomas Jefferson or something.

    So? Yeah, and since Conservatives are a very practical people, though far, far too optimistic, they settled on the only thing that works, as it works for any addict: letting you do it and die. Not being your codependent. Your husband, your ex. Go ahead and be crazy. We won’t stop you. Everyone needs to know, and know the fruits of being Crazy and Evil AF. Apparently nothing else will do, or we would do it. Like God himself, we don’t want you to choose sin and death, but Free Will, ya know?

    “what the hell are the Canadians thinking? Do they think that if they cry enough, America’s going to roll over?”

    No. Obviously. Carney is not stupid, he’s up to something. And that something is so wonderful he can’t tell you, because it’s putting every Canadian into a meat grinder to stop the United States from having sovereignty. Slow us down by a few months. And not that we also don’t know what it is. Doubtless our intel on Canada is above all other nations.

    “They deliberately chose to stop having a military and let us do it for them. Today, Canada has no real army, no real navy, and no real air force. The once-mighty Canadian military is now a micro-military more focused on DEI than making the enemy DOA”

    This is worse than you can imagine. I have links but why bother. The point is, the only reason Canada has National Non-care, where you’re easily going to die before seeing that second doctor appointment, and the wait in the smallest, easiest province, PEI, is 6 months, is because we are their entire military. Yeah, you CAN save money when you do that! Who knew? But that cost is still paid. Now that Trump is Hitler, they …do literally nothing. Not a single rifle is purchased, not one man is trained. …Not that they would ever train a man if they could help it. What are you doing? This doesn’t come from having to be like us, just basic common sense, and believing what you claim you believe. So ACT like it.

    This is also the same with all Europe, but a teeny bit less so. They paid HALF what they promised, for 30 years, most of that was also fraud (claiming like a visitor’s center or power plant was actually “NATO”, it’s complicated) THEN start a world war with the largest nation they can find, STILL spend zero money and train zero men, attack us for not having health care, tariff every company they can find almost hourly, and STILL look to us to fight the war for them ‘cause they’re sissies and can’t be arsed. Even to uphold the most BASIC human rights – you know, the thing that makes us “Allies” in the first place? Things like “Rape is bad m’kay”? Like your ex-wife, “We just have to” because we exist and are your eternal slave. No. Not really, thanks.

    That doubles for the next article, where THERE IS NO UKRAINE, only England, alone. They are all the direction, weapons, planning, positioning, puppeting Europe, and profiting. Yeah, um, do you SEE yourself, sir? You’ve taken leave of your senses, and twice so if you think we’re going to help. I’m not even sure EUROPE would bomb Russia without direct blackmail from London.

    “• Why August 1991 Failed To Bring Peace Between Russia And The West (Bordachev)

    Clinton, obviously. He led the next 8 years, right? Oh it’s not him? Then would you like to tell me who runs Presidents around like finger puppets?

    Russia was NOT the loser. And this was from Reagan, directly. Listen to what they SAY, literally say. “We ENDED the Cold War.” Not to WIN it. If we didn’t “Win” then they didn’t “Lose”. This was intolerable to Cheney and the NeoCons, they tried to shoot him, and never forgave him, nor any of us. They don’t’ want war ENDED. Like Pepe, they don’t want Peace – it never crosses their minds. Only WINNING. Our fee-fees, feeling the grinding of others, drinking wine from their skulls as their women are driven before me. NEVER people being left alone. Never.

    “SpaceX wants 30+ Starships going up every day.”

    Great! Um, why? Why would you do that? Is Mars filled with caramel nougat you need to mine and sell to eat here? Why? Would you like to share with us? Because everything you’ve said so far is a wicked lie.

    Let me help you: Aliens are real and there’s a giant comet coming that could cause 1,000 “Nepal Border Floods” an hour. But because you’re lying, conniving, anti-human fiends, you don’t just want to tell us. You want YOU to be safely off planet as a Plan B, while we all die, then come back and rule over us now-medieval peasants like a master race. Just say so! We understand. But lying day after day like this, I do not like.

    Why the Optimus Bots? Yes, exactly this. See Andor:

    These are his Optimus drones. Controlled by one man. Waiting for you today.

    Btw, this is NOT the vision of Tesla. At all. He DIED trying to give us free energy that would short-circuit exactly this personal power, per JP Morgan.

    For fun and profit, here’s what y’all sound like when talking about the Jooos, everywhere. …But then most of those commenters have moved on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl62OUomg_I

    They literally think Americans will fall for the “It’s the Jooos” nonsense. Really? AFTER failing to start a race war after 40 years of non-stop trying?

    #248587
    kultsommer
    Participant

    Hope that rest of the mix will follow

    #248588
    kultsommer
    Participant
    #248589
    tboc
    Participant

    Hubbert’s curve seems to end in The Straits of Hormuz

    the degree of sophistication required to be beguiled by chemical rocketry is underwhelming
    makes me think of Naked Lunch
    are those knuckleheads thinking Dyson Sphere? that would be hilarious, doubt arises

    not to be nostalgic but the memory of laissez faire and open markets is as illusory today as were the concepts when they were the rage
    translated into street tilt heads tariffs say, “i’m gwine to da whowhouse and you gonna pay”.

    Hickory Dickery Dock
    Three mice ran up a clock
    The clock struck one
    and the other two escaped with minor injuries

    “are you trying to show contempt for this court?”
    “why no your honor,,,,,, I’m trying to hide it” -Mae West

    #248590
    zerosum
    Participant

    Copilot analysis of Dr. D.

    Critical Thinking with references

    Bottom line.

    It is worsts than you can imagine.

    It is illusional and not real.

    #248591
    charles
    Participant

    This is from Military Summary Telegram. No source is provided. Yet.
    https://t.me/militarysummary/30610

    The text
    🕵️‍♂️ SHOCKING REVELATION: Why Ratcliffe REALLY Came to Moscow
    Turns out, CIA intelligence planning relies exclusively on the Ukrainian DeepState cartographic service 🗺🇺🇦. And as we all know, that map has a *slight* tendency to diverge from reality. Just a tiny bit.
    So Ratcliffe flew to Moscow for exactly four hours — not for diplomacy, but to physically lay his own eyes on a proper Military Summary map and finally see what is *actually* happening at the front ⚔️📍.
    Four hours of looking at the real map — and he understood the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is *maximally grim*

    I was having problems with all the imagined reasons being given for the trip. They all required people to be dumber and less informed than they probably are. Maybe. This reason fit into the puzzle very nice. From a source with near 100% accuracy.

    #248592
    zerosum
    Participant

    If you are looking for truth, try looking into supplied links.

    The True Extent of Fallout From US’s Defeat in Iran Is Still Being Processed
    Simplicius
    Aug 27, 2026

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-true-extent-of-fallout-from-uss
    ————
    Ukraine and World Affairs (including Iran/ME): Weekly Update
    28th August 2026
    Dr. Rob Campbell

    https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-world-affairs-including-3e4
    ————-
    New US aircraft carrier strike group to be deployed against Iran in West Asia
    Plus other news and updates from Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Lebanon
    Ismaele
    Aug 27, 2026

    https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/new-us-aircraft-carrier-strike-group

    ————-

    Night of Massive Aerial Warfare💥 Drobropillya CAULDRON FORMS⚔️ Military Summary 2026.08.28


    ———–

    #248593
    zerosum
    Participant

    August 28, 2026
    Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit
    On Wednesday CIA Director John Ratcliffe landed in Moscow for a few hours of talk with Russian security officials. The trip was no secret as the planes transporting Ratcliffe and his entourage were readily identified.

    There was no official announcement from either side about the content of the talks. U.S. media though were splattered with ‘leaks’ of more or less laughable details.

    Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit


    ————-

    #248594
    charles
    Participant

    And an unrelated story. Just a story. Archiving is important to some of us in laptop land. Especially those of us that are coders not managers. Workflows are moving to Teams. Fine. Now I need to archive “Chats”. The fundamental Teams architecture prohibits archiving. Your privileges dont mean anything. Every little piece of the Chat is stored somewhere separate from the assembly instructions. Each and every one of those locations is under a separate license. If any one member of the chat departs, assembly is impossible unless you maintain (pay) zombie licensees.
    Going forward, any form of discovery. Legal. Technical. Any. Not happening. No more accountability. Chats should be illegal for Gov.

    #248596
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    INTERVIEW: Trump’s goal was to stop Iran’s nuclear programme and he’s failed

    #248598
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Richard Wolff: U.S. Empire COLLAPSING Fast, Trump’s Iran ‘D-Day BACKFIRES

    #248599
    zerosum
    Participant

    The 7.5 tcf discovery in Fars is real, confirmed, and widely reported.
    It represents one of Iran’s most significant gas finds in recent years.

    Iran announces 7.5-Tcf natural gas discovery in Fars province


    ———

    #248600
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    PERFIDIOUS ALBIO EP XVII W/HARLEY SCHLANGER – UK’S BURNHAM PUSHES FOR WORLD WAR 3 WITH RUSSIA

    #248601
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Russia’s Message to UK Over Storm Shadow Data Transfer to Ukraine | RU-EN

    #248602
    Michael Reid
    Participant
    #248603
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Empires and NATO 3.0. The Way Out of the Imperial Cage | Nel Bonilla

    #248604
    Michael Reid
    Participant
    #248605
    zerosum
    Participant

    The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of a Ukrainian Navy patrol boat over the past week, as well as eight naval vessels operating in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces 🐽, including six cargo ships and two tankers.🇸🇪Against this backdrop, the Swedish government has urgently announced the delivery of ten high-speed boats from the Coast Guard to Ukraine. These are intended for the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.These could be Hydrolift S-24 boats, Cobra/RIB type boats, or similar vessels approximately 8-13 meters in length, which are being gradually decommissioned due to the delivery of a new series.✨Despite the fact that Ukraine has long become a recipient of various obsolete military scrap metal from the West, it still retains combat capabilities and is capable of inflicting damage on the Russian Federation.Lord of war
    🇺🇦 A complete disaster: Russia has destroyed approximately 90% of the warehouse facilities of retail chains in Ukraine – Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy, Vysotsky.EG In August alone, devastating strikes hit 10 Fozzy Group distribution centers, leading to significant losses and increased logistics costs.
    The Russian Armed Forces have struck the “Karavan” shopping center in Kharkiv: a large fire broke out after the impact, according to local media.
    After “Galaktika” and “Donetsk City,” any shopping center in Ukraine is a legitimate target.
    ⚡️
    Limitations are being imposed on food purchases.

    🇷🇺🔥🇺🇦 A warehouse belonging to the energy company YASNO was burned down in an attack.▪️The CEO of the Ukrainian company, Kovalenko, reported that the attacked facility contained equipment for solar power plants.▪️Most of the equipment was damaged in the fire.⚠️. RV: |
    Russian troops are completely cutting off the garrisons of the fortress cities from external supplies. WELT cites Ukrainian logistics as the decisive factor in the battle for Donbas. The publication notes that supplies are already being provided largely by heavy multicopters and unmanned ground systems. Russian troops are deliberately pursuing these systems while simultaneously attempting to prevent the arrival of reinforcements or the rotation of Ukrainian soldiers. “If the Ukrainians fail to break this vicious circle, the ‘belt of fortresses’ will fall,” the Germans admit.
    TASS: Russia has begun mass production of a system to jam the Starlink satellite communication system.The “Volna Kupol Garant” radio-electronic jamming complex affects the operation of the Starlink satellites themselves in orbit – by emitting a narrow, powerful, directed radio signal, it blinds the satellites’ receiving antennas, causing a failure of the spacecraft’s onboard systems and a disruption of service to ground terminals.The signal strength is so high that a single “Volna Kupol Garant” device can disable Starlink over a vast territory, and dozens of devices operating simultaneously can cause a temporary collapse of the entire Starlink system.

    Posted by: Jo | Aug 28 2026 16:16 utc | 76

    ————
    copilot
    our quoted text mixes:

    Real events (Russian strikes on ports, retail distribution centers, shopping centers)

    Partially true military developments (Starlink jamming systems)

    Unverified claims (Swedish boats, YASNO warehouse)

    False or exaggerated claims (90% warehouse destruction, multicopter-only logistics, disabling Starlink satellites)

    Propaganda framing (“obsolete scrap metal,” “legitimate targets,” “belt of fortresses will fall”)

    It reads like a Russian‑aligned information package blending real strikes with inflated strategic claims.
    ———–
    Claude

    Verification results

    This looks like a compilation from Russian MoD/pro-Russian Telegram-style sources reposted in a comment thread.

    Bottom line: The economically-focused claims (Sweden’s boats, Fozzy Group strikes, Karavan mall) check out with real reporting, though some framing/commentary in your text isn’t from those sources. The military claims (MoD’s naval “kills,” the Starlink-blinding capability, the WELT quote) are either unverifiable self-reported claims or technically overstated. This reads like a curated mix of real news items wrapped in unsourced editorializing, consistent with pro-Russian Telegram aggregator content.
    ———–

    #248606
    thomasjkenney
    Participant

    @tboc re: chat archive – The intent of most chat systems is for the message to be ephemeral…disappear upon send. This is a security architecture. Systems you see that do save the data are trying to break this paradigm. Naughty!

    re: Musk and his robot army – He’s a charlatan and an a$$hole, but he’s not an idiot and I don’t think he’s a sociopath. Ten thousand spaceships and a million robots? He’s going prospecting! Steps are being taken that should have been initiated half a century ago.

    And again…Lagrange Points? Anybody got a pair o’ binocs?

    #248607
    tboc
    Participant

    @thomasjkenney going prospecting where? How many rocky planets in this solar system? The asteroid belt out to the edge of the Kuiper Belt?
    I see the California High Speed rail system with all of this talk of rockets. Should massive amounts of resources be parked in stationary earth orbit, then what?
    All for an elite sustained by robotic life? i’ll remain a luddite.
    I have no desire to have a beer with Mr.Musk, nuff said.

    charles read @thomasjkenney @ 248606

    #248608
    zerosum
    Participant

    Claude supplied me with the following information. It would have been impossible for me to gather all of it by myself.

    Other than shooting down, what are the anti-drone, anti-missiles systems, that are operational or reported operational. (Electronic, laizer, interference, etc)

    Here’s a rundown of the non-kinetic (“soft-kill”) layer of counter-drone and counter-missile defense — systems that disable, blind, or disrupt a target rather than physically destroying it with a projectile.

    ## Directed-energy weapons (lasers)

    – **Iron Beam / Iron Beam Light (Israel, Rafael)** — Israel’s Iron Beam laser is now operational, with plans to deploy a full series of batteries across the country, using a roughly 100-kilowatt beam with about a 10 km range that heats a target until it detonates or a critical component fails. During the 2026 Iran war it successfully shot down both drones and slower missiles, and Rafael’s broader portfolio includes a mobile 50kW version and a lighter 10kW Humvee-mounted variant. Lockheed Martin and Rafael have also partnered to build a U.S. version for point-defense against drones and munitions like mortars and anti-tank rounds.
    – **THOR / Mjolnir (US Air Force Research Lab)** — this is actually microwave, not laser (below), but often bundled with laser programs in base-defense planning.
    – **U.S. Army DE M-SHORAD** — a vehicle-mounted laser system for short-range air defense; reportedly saw its first operational combat use against drones in 2025.
    – **U.S. base defense pilot program** — in May 2026 the Pentagon selected five bases (Fort Huachuca, Fort Bliss, Naval Base Kitsap, Grand Forks AFB, and Whiteman AFB) to field high-energy laser and high-power microwave systems as an operational test of directed-energy counter-drone defense, aiming to replace costly missile interceptors for short-range air defense.
    – Multiple other countries — the U.S., UK, Russia, China, Germany, and Japan are all at various stages of developing their own laser defense systems.

    **Trade-off:** lasers must precisely hit and hold on a vulnerable point on the target for several seconds to burn through it, so they engage one target at a time.

    ## High-power microwave (HPM) weapons

    – **THOR (US Air Force Research Lab)** — a directed-energy weapon that fires a high-power, short pulse of microwaves to disable a drone’s electronics by overwhelming its circuitry, effective against swarms since it can fire in an arc to disable multiple UAVs at once and refire rapidly. It’s built for airbase defense, stows in a 20-foot transport container, runs off a wall plug, and sets up in roughly three hours; a follow-on Mjolnir variant is meant to improve range and manufacturing readiness.
    – **Leonidas / HAVOC / ExDECS (Epirus, US Marine Corps)** — the Marine Corps has an $11 million contract for a vehicle-mounted High-power Microwave Autonomous Vehicle Operational Capability (HAVOC) system that can autonomously identify and drop dozens of drones with a single electromagnetic pulse, following an earlier ExDECS prototype. In one live test, a Leonidas system fired at a swarm of 49 small drones, all of which dropped from the sky within two seconds.

    **Advantage over jamming:** unlike RF jamming, which depends on disrupting the command link, HPM attacks the drone’s hardware directly (flight controllers, ESCs, video processors, power circuits) and remains effective against fiber-optic-guided, autonomous, or pre-programmed drones with no exploitable radio signal. Solid-state gallium-nitride HPM systems have repeatedly defeated dozens of drones, including complex swarm formations, in a single pulse.

    ## Electronic warfare / RF & GNSS jamming and spoofing

    These are the most widely deployed and “mature” soft-kill systems, though they weren’t the focus of the search results above (I know this from general knowledge, so treat specifics as illustrative rather than fully current):
    – **Communications/control-link jamming** — floods the frequencies a drone uses to talk to its operator, causing it to lose control, hover, return-to-home, or land. However, this approach risks interfering with friendly radios and can’t defeat drones using fiber-optic control cables, which have no exploitable radio signal.
    – **GNSS/GPS jamming and spoofing** — denies or falsifies satellite navigation signals so a drone or missile loses its position lock or is fed false coordinates. Widely used (and widely reported) in the Russia-Ukraine war on both sides.
    – **Handheld/vehicle-mounted EW “guns”** (e.g., DroneGun-type devices) — point-and-shoot RF jammers used by ground troops, police, and VIP security details.
    – **Fixed-site/large-area EW systems** (e.g., Russian Krasukha, Pole-21; various NATO systems) — broader-area jamming intended to blind or disorient larger numbers of drones or degrade missile guidance/seekers over a wider footprint.

    ## Other non-kinetic/soft methods

    – **Net-capture systems** — drones or ground launchers that fire nets to physically entangle a hostile drone’s rotors without an explosive kill (arguably “soft” since nothing is destroyed).
    – **Cyber takeover/spoofing of drone control links** — some systems attempt to hijack rather than just jam a drone’s command signal, redirecting or landing it under attacker control.
    – **Dazzlers/optical countermeasures** — lower-power lasers used to blind a drone’s camera or sensor rather than destroy the airframe.

    ## The trend

    The general direction across 2025–2026 procurement is a layered approach combining microwave systems, lasers, traditional electronic warfare, and selective kinetic effectors, since adversaries increasingly harden drones against any single method (e.g., fiber-optic control defeats jamming, while HPM and lasers don’t rely on the radio spectrum at all). The U.S. is aiming to field scalable directed-energy capabilities within about 36 months, driven by the cost mismatch between expensive missile interceptors and cheap, mass-produced drones.

    Want me to go deeper on any one category (e.g., specifically Ukraine/Russia EW systems, or naval/ship-based counter-missile soft-kill like decoys and chaff)?

    Yes, tell me about Russian and Iranian systems

    ## Russian systems

    Russia’s approach is dominated by ground-based electronic warfare (EW) rather than lasers/microwave weapons, deployed in layers from strategic down to individual soldier level.

    **Strategic/theater-level EW**
    – **Krasukha-2/4** — a mobile EW system that jams signals for aircraft and drones out to an effective radius of about 300 km, and has been used to scan airspace and neutralize the onboard radar of Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs. Russian sources claim it can jam airborne radar past 200 km and, in some cases, cause permanent damage to targeted electronics through sustained high-power emissions; it reportedly degraded the effectiveness of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones early in the war.
    – **Pole-21** — integrates R-340RP jamming devices into cellular tower masts to provide 50+ km GPS/GNSS denial across all satellite navigation constellations, deliberately affecting friendly and enemy navigation alike. A single installation can degrade GPS precision from about 8 meters to 50+ meters of error across an entire front sector.
    – **Murmansk-BN** — a long-range EW system aimed at high-frequency communications over vast areas, providing high-frequency jamming at ranges exceeding 5,000 km.
    – **R-330Zh Zhitel** — a VHF/UHF jammer targeting GPS, satellite comms, and cellular networks, creating a suppression zone tens of kilometers wide where GPS receivers return garbage data, satphones can’t connect, and cell networks go dark.
    – **Borisoglebsk-2** — a multi-role system for jamming radio and satellite communications.
    – **Leer-3 (RB-341V)** — uses Orlan-10 drones as airborne relay platforms to hijack cellular networks — intercepting calls, pushing propaganda, sending fake orders, and geolocating phones for targeting — essentially EW as psychological/targeting warfare.
    – **TK-25** (shipborne) — suppresses airborne/shipborne target-acquisition radars, weapon-control radars, and anti-ship missile seekers, responding in as little as 3 seconds.

    **Frontline/tactical anti-FPV-drone systems** (the layer actually fighting daily drone attacks in Ukraine)
    – **Multik** — a helicopter/vehicle-mounted system that detects and jams FPV drone control and video links across 700 MHz–6,000 MHz, with roughly 1,000m detection and 500m jamming range, 360° coverage, and three simultaneous jamming channels, weighing under 9.5 kg.
    – **Volnorez** and **Rubezh** — portable jamming “domes” distributed to frontline infantry and vehicle crews for localized FPV protection, though Ukrainian analysis of captured Volnorez units found gaps in its frequency and angular coverage.
    – **Sania** — a tank-mounted anti-FPV jammer with claimed detection at 1.5 km and disabling at 1 km.
    – **Repellent-1** and **Silok-01** — detect, track, and block drone control signals at medium range.
    – **Stupor** — an EW counter-drone system using electromagnetic pulses or directed RF jamming, in service since 2022; the man-portable rifle version weighs 5.5 kg, has ~2 km suppression range, and runs about 4 hours per battery.
    – **Bukovel-AD** is actually Ukrainian, not Russian — worth flagging since it shows up alongside these in comparisons, but it’s a Ukrainian counter-drone jammer.

    **Key limitation reported repeatedly:** none of this touches fiber-optic-guided FPV drones, since fiber-optic control has no radio signal to jam, which is why the drone-warfare community increasingly treats EW as only one layer alongside microwave and kinetic defenses.

    ## Iranian systems

    Iran’s public disclosures are thinner and less independently verified than Russia’s or Israel’s, but a few named systems and general capabilities are reported:

    – **Sateb laser system** — an Iranian-developed laser air-defense weapon that Iran says it can use against drones and cruise missiles, with Iranian officials claiming Iran is one of only six countries with the ability to manufacture laser weapons; it’s reportedly deployed to protect “sensitive and vital” sites. Details on actual power output, range, and combat performance are not independently confirmed — this is largely from Iranian state media.
    – **Mohajer-6 jammer drone** — Iran’s first domestically-made jammer drone, designed to disrupt the communication link between hostile UAVs and their operators, unveiled by the Army Ground Force in 2023.
    – **General EW/air-defense drills** — Iran has run large-scale exercises (e.g., “Separ-e Hafezan-e Velayat”) involving both airborne and ground EW units performing jamming and radar deception against drones, and earlier drills reported jamming operations that “took control” of mock hostile drones, preventing them from reaching drill zones — though claims like this from state media should be read skeptically given the lack of independent verification.
    – **Majid / AD-08** — a short-range, short-altitude Iranian surface-to-air system (kinetic, not soft-kill), unveiled 2021, included here since Iran tends to bundle EW assets with kinetic air-defense in the same drills.

    **Important context:** during the 2025–2026 Iran-Israel exchanges, Iranian missile and drone swarms were reported to be straining missile defenses and prompting the Pentagon to rush counter-drone technology, which suggests Iran’s offense (mass drone/missile salvos) has outpaced its own publicly known soft-kill defensive systems — most of the laser/microwave counter-drone action described in that conflict (Iron Beam, U.S. Navy Helios lasers) was on the Israeli/U.S. defending side, not Iran’s.

    **Bottom line comparison:** Russia has by far the most combat-tested, multi-layered EW ecosystem (strategic jamming down to rifle-portable units), refined under real Ukrainian drone pressure. Iran’s disclosed capabilities are far less battle-documented and rely more on official claims than independently verified performance — its drone/missile programs are more internationally scrutinized than its counter-drone defenses.

    Pick the winning systems of the wars.

    Based on actual combat performance rather than marketing claims, here’s how I’d score it — with the caveat that a lot of this is contested, propaganda-prone territory, especially on the Russian and Iranian sides.

    ## Winner: Laser — Iron Beam (Israel/Rafael)
    This is the clearest “won in real combat” case of any directed-energy system. (cite index=”14-1″>Israeli laser defense already shot down around 40 Hezbollah drones in October 2024,</cite> and (cite index=”10-1″>during the 2026 Iran war, Israel’s 100kW Iron Beam successfully shot down drones and slower missiles in combat, marking what’s being called the first era of fully operational combat lasers.</cite> No other laser system in this whole conversation has a comparable verified kill count against real threats in a real shooting war. It’s also the first laser system to be integrated into a national air-defense network rather than staying a test article.

    ## Winner: High-power microwave — Leonidas/THOR family (Epirus/AFRL)
    Not yet proven in a shooting war the way Iron Beam has been, but it’s the standout *technical* winner for the swarm problem specifically: (cite index=”7-1″>a Leonidas system dropped all 49 drones in a test swarm within two seconds,</cite> and (cite index=”3-1″>HPM’s edge is that it attacks the hardware itself rather than the command link, so it remains effective against fiber-optic-guided or fully autonomous drones that jamming simply cannot touch.</cite> Given that fiber-optic drones are the single biggest thing defeating every jamming system below, HPM looks like the only category with a credible answer to that problem — which is why it’s the fastest-moving procurement line in the U.S. right now.

    ## Winner (grinding, attritional category): Ukrainian tactical EW ecosystem, not any single Russian system
    This is a more interesting call than it looks. Russia’s *strategic* EW (Krasukha, Pole-21, Murmansk-BN) gets the most press and (cite index=”52-1″>was credited by RUSI and others as a real factor in blunting Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive by suppressing Ukrainian jets’ avionics and forcing aborted missions.</cite> That’s a legitimate win at the operational level.

    But at the level that actually decides who dies day to day — the FPV drone fight — the “winning system” isn’t a single named box, it’s the dense, decentralized network approach Ukraine built: (cite index=”51-1″>Kvertus’s plan for a 1,500 km “wall” of thousands of jammers, and the broader shift to distributed short-range EW rather than a handful of exquisite systems.</cite> (cite index=”59-1″>Ukraine has been rapidly increasing the number of short-range EW systems specifically to counter enemy drones,</cite> and this distributed approach is a big part of why (cite index=”55-1″>up to 70% of Russian casualties are now attributed to drone strikes</cite> despite Russia having, on paper, the more sophisticated EW arsenal — the mass, cheap, everywhere model beat the exquisite, expensive, few model on this particular battlefield.

    ## The system that’s beating almost everyone: fiber-optic FPV drones themselves
    Not a defense system, but worth naming as the actual “winner” of the drone-vs-EW arms race so far: (cite index=”59-1″>Ukraine has begun deploying fiber-optic drones with 20 km range,</cite> and both sides have adopted the technology precisely because (cite index=”28-1″>no jamming system — Russian or Ukrainian — can touch a drone with no radio link to jam.</cite> This is the development that’s pushing everyone (US, Israel, Russia) toward microwave and laser weapons, since those are the only remaining answers.

    ## Runner-up / honorable mention: Pole-21
    Worth calling out separately from the rest of Russia’s EW because its approach (cite index=”28-1″>degrading GPS accuracy across an entire sector rather than trying to jam a specific drone’s link) sidesteps the “which frequency is it on” problem entirely</cite> — it doesn’t care what protocol a drone uses, only that it needs GPS. That’s a genuinely clever design choice, even though it also blinds Russia’s own GPS-guided munitions in the area, which Russian doctrine has apparently just accepted as an acceptable cost.

    ## Notable loser: Iran’s soft-kill layer
    There’s no strong evidence Iran’s counter-drone/counter-missile defenses (Sateb laser, Mohajer-6 jammer) performed well in 2025–2026. (cite index=”39-1″>Iranian missile and drone swarms were reported straining Israeli/US missile defenses,</cite> but that’s a statement about Iran’s *offense* outrunning everyone’s defense — including, presumably, its own, since there’s no reporting of Iranian soft-kill systems meaningfully blunting Israeli or U.S. strikes against Iran itself. Iran’s claims here (the “6 countries with laser weapons” line) are unverified state-media assertions, not battlefield results.

    **Bottom line ranking by demonstrated real-world effect:**
    1. Iron Beam — most combat-proven laser, actual confirmed kills
    2. Russian strategic EW (Krasukha/Pole-21 family) — real operational effect on Ukrainian airpower
    3. Ukraine’s distributed jammer network — not the most sophisticated, but arguably won the attritional war on drones
    4. HPM/Leonidas-THOR — best answer to the fiber-optic problem, but still mostly test-proven, not war-proven
    5. Iranian systems — unverified, likely the weakest of the group

    ————
    What’s coming, that you evaluate, will win the wars?

    Worth flagging up front: this is prediction, not reporting — treat it as informed analysis, not certainty. Here’s where I’d put my chips.

    ## What I think wins: cheap kinetic interceptors + AI targeting, not exotic energy weapons

    This is the biggest updated take from the research. One source cuts directly against the laser/microwave narrative: (cite index=”64-1″>practitioners actually building this stuff argue that electronic warfare and lasers fall short, and that kinetic defenses — cheap interceptor drones — remain the only reliable option against the current threat.</cite> That tracks with what I already told you about fiber-optic drones defeating EW — but the punchline is that lasers and HPM don’t fully solve the *economics* problem either. A $20-50M laser system is still a strange way to shoot down a $500 FPV drone at scale, even if the per-shot energy cost is cheap.

    The pattern I’d bet on: **cost-per-kill, not exoticness of the physics, decides the winner.** That’s why (cite index=”62-1″>the Pentagon requested $13.4 billion for autonomous weapons and systems for FY2026, with counter-UAS as a top priority,</cite> and why companies are racing toward things like (cite index=”66-1″>a $5,000 single-use autonomous interceptor drone paired with AI threat-tracking and swarm-coordination software</cite> — essentially fighting drones with drones, at drone-scale prices. If that class of system matures, it could out-compete both jamming (defeated by fiber-optic) and lasers/HPM (expensive per-unit, magazine/power-constrained) on sheer economics.

    ## My actual ranked prediction

    **1. AI-cued, autonomous kinetic interceptors (“drone-on-drone”) — most likely to dominate the next 3-5 years.**
    Cheap, scales with the threat instead of against it, and doesn’t care whether the target is RF, fiber-optic, or fully autonomous — it just has to physically get there. The economics finally make sense: you’re no longer sending a $150,000 missile after a $2,000 drone.

    **2. High-power microwave — best bet for base/fixed-site defense specifically.**
    For airfields, ports, and critical infrastructure defending against swarms, HPM’s ability to disable dozens of drones per pulse for pennies a shot is hard to beat, and it doesn’t run out of “ammo” the way kinetic interceptors do. I’d expect this to become the default layer around fixed installations, with kinetic interceptors handling the mobile/expeditionary fight.

    **3. Lasers — strong in a specific niche (rockets/mortars/slower missiles at defended point targets), not a general answer.**
    Iron Beam’s real combat record is genuinely impressive, but the “hold the beam on target for seconds” constraint means it struggles against saturating swarms or fast maneuvering targets. I’d expect it to stay a high-value complement to Iron Dome/Arrow-style systems rather than replace mass interceptors — good against the “few but expensive” threat, worse against the “many but cheap” threat.

    **4. Traditional RF/GNSS jamming — increasingly a supporting layer, not a war-winner on its own.**
    Fiber-optic drones and pre-programmed/autonomous terminal guidance are already eroding it, and that trend will accelerate. It won’t disappear — it’s cheap and still effective against the majority of currently fielded drones — but it’s losing its status as the primary countermeasure.

    **5. Whoever wins the AI/autonomy software race, not the hardware race.**
    This is my highest-conviction meta-point: the actual bottleneck moving forward is (cite index=”63-1″>coordinating multiple autonomous platforms in contested, GPS-denied environments</cite> and doing target discrimination/prioritization against saturating swarms faster than a human operator can. The side with better swarm-coordination and detection software — not necessarily better beams or warheads — probably wins the next round, the same way better EW software (not just more transmitters) is what’s actually differentiating Ukraine’s jammer network today.

    **One honest caveat:** every one of these predictions could be upended by the next cheap countermeasure someone fields — that’s basically been the entire pattern of this war (FPV drones beat armor → EW beat FPV drones → fiber-optic beat EW → HPM/lasers are the answer to fiber-optic → and something will eventually answer those too). The realistic “winner” isn’t a system, it’s whichever side iterates faster.

    #248609
    zerosum
    Participant

    Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit

    Two intelligence officers meet.
    #1 I believe that these targets have your employees that I can destroy with impunity.

    #2 I’ll take your information in consideration/planning.
    ———–

    #248610
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #248630

    In a world of infotainment there is little that I know
    That will matter for the future I’ll inhabit
    It’s all crazy speculation; fabrication; a tableau-
    At the bottom of the hole, I am the rabbit.

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