Aug 202026
 
 August 20, 2026  Posted by at 9:29 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  Add comments


EdgarDegas A la mer 1863


Economic D-Day (ZH)
UAE Cuts Ties As Iran Warns Gulf States Against Helping Washington (ZH)
Iran’s Latest Warning Signals The Hardliners Are Just Getting Started (CNN)
Hormuz Can’t Be Replaced – Iranian General (RT)
The Strait of Hormuz Is Open. Also Closed. It’s Complicated. (Stephen Green)
Iran Has Lost Significant Control of the Strait of Hormuz (CNN)
A Democrat Confessed the Midterms Could Be a Disaster for His Party (Margolis)
Democrats Nominate a Socialist for Senate in Deep Red Florida (Rick Moran)
Axios — Dems Might Be Commies but Hey, They’re Sexy! (Stephen Kruiser)
Natalie Harp is A Main Conduit Between Trump And The Outside World (CNN)
Swalwell and Fang Fang Distilled (CTH)
Pelosi, Democrats Kept Swalwell On Intel Committee Despite FBI Warnings (JTN)
Fauci Advisor Pleads Guilty to “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States” (CTH)
Hey Ursula, Angry Voters Aren’t ‘Pro-Russian’, Just Fed Up (Rachel Marsden)

 


 

https://twitter.com/Trustintrump47/status/2089730850824880598?s=20 https://twitter.com/John_F_kJr/status/2089693165997437421?s=20

 


 


Is today the day?

Do read Trump’s missive!

People of the day: Fang-Fang and Natalie Harp.

Economic D-Day (ZH)

President Trump is out with a Truth Social post describing today as “ECONOMIC D-DAY” against Iran, declaring that his total economic war against Tehran will be the “MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY.” Trump said that with Tehran’s military and military-industrial base reduced to “now rubble” and its “currency worthless,” he will unleash severe economic consequences against “ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran.”


Here’s the full Truth Social post:

Read more …

“.. Kpler Says US Navy Gaining Ground In Hormuz ..”

UAE Cuts Ties As Iran Warns Gulf States Against Helping Washington (ZH)

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is visiting Baghdad while at the same time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan to discuss the Hormuz situation and security. Except of course the two sides aren’t talking with each other. President Trump has made clear that no talks are on, and that none are scheduled, as he’s been floating a ‘new’ strategy to ‘strangle’ the Iranian economy over the long term. CNN reported Tuesday that White House officials have recently communicated that they are shifting their strategy — going from “hammer Iran ASAP” to “strangle them” over time.


As for Ghalibaf, he blasted War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday, mocking this new disengagement strategy, given the US has already failed to bring Tehran to its knees. “Americans think squeezing Iran harder will win concessions that were never part of the agreement,” Ghalibaf wrote in a post on X. “Bessent and Hegseth are way out of their league,” Ghalibaf added while referring to them as the “clown crew.” He stated:”Stop waiting for the clown crew to pull a rabbit out of their hat and clean up the mess you made.”

After declaring a new ‘offensive’ military posture in response to the crisis, Iran is showing no signs of backing off the confrontation with the US in the region. On Wednesday its armed forces warned Gulf countries against hosting or assisting American forces, saying it would be tantamount to joining the war on the US side. “We wish to warn that any assistance or facilitation provided to the aggressor U.S. military amounts to participation in the U.S. military operation,” armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi said. “It seems unlikely that such a large number of military aircraft, particularly refueling aircraft could be present at regional bases without knowledge of host countries,” the official continued as cited in Mehr news agency.

It’s not known how many refueling tankers or else large warplanes are still positioned in the Gulf, but certainly the bulk of regional refueling aircraft operated by the US Air Force are currently concentrated at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion international airport – and has been subject of a lot of media attention.And in another significant escalation that effectively torpedoes any remaining illusions of hoped-for cross-Gulf detente, the United Arab Emirates has announced Wednesday a complete and immediate severance of all economic ties with Tehran. The move comes on the heels of what UAE officials claim was a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles targeted directly at Emirati territory.

Tehran had quickly denied it had fired missiles on its territory, but UAE authorities later clarified that the military observed two missiles inbound from Iran, which caused no damage or casualties – which triggered an urgent missile alert for the population on Tuesday. Meanwhile, below are some of the latest major developments and reports related to the Iran conflict:Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to people close to the regime, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict. FT

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war with the United States, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment by Donald Trump could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. RTRS

Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are piling up without an American military response, raising the risks of crossing the strategic waterway and frustrating some Arab allies who worry the U.S. doesn’t have a strategy to wind down the conflict. WSJ

However, shipping analytics firm Kpler has suggested that the US Navy is gaining ground in the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran is ceding some control, amid a war of words between President Trump and Iranian leadership over who has actual ‘control’.

Read more …

They’d still need people to execute their commands. Where are they?

Iran’s Latest Warning Signals The Hardliners Are Just Getting Started (CNN)

US President Donald Trump is struggling to extract the United States from a war that he started almost six months ago – alternating between claims that Tehran is “begging” for a deal, and threats to renew military attacks. Now Iran’s hardline leadership is devising and promoting its own strategy for continued confrontation with Washington.The strategy emphasizes “offensive operations” as well as defensive action to neutralize enemy threats, according to one Iranian official. The more assertive stance comes as a US-Iran agreement intended to end the war, the Memorandum of Understanding, expires with control of the Strait of Hormuz still in dispute.


Iran’s military leaders believe they are in a strong position to extract concessions from the US and can further adapt Iran’s weapons systems to bridge the gap with their more powerful adversaries, according to analysts. It also likely means greater mobilization of Iran’s allies in Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere. In recent weeks, Houthi militants in Yemen have threatened Saudi shipping and struck Saudi oil refineries, while Iranian-backed militia in Iraq have targeted Saudi oil infrastructure. The starting gun for the new posture in Tehran sounded with decrees reorganizing Iran’s security leadership last week issued in the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

An adviser to Khamenei, Mohammad Mokhber, said the “strategy of shifting the war to an offensive posture if Iran’s conditions are not met will undoubtedly transform the balance of power in the world.” The new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaie, belongs to a faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that believes “the only way to get concessions from the US is the continuation of fighting, exerting pressure on the US and a steady dose of pain on Donald Trump,” Sina Azodi, assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University, told CNN earlier this month.

In confirming Ahmad Vahidi as the IRGC’s chief, Mojtaba’s decree spoke of the need to increase preparedness for “strong offensive operations against the enemy.” It was “clear that Vahidi’s mandate was to revise Iranian military strategy in a more assertive and offensive direction,” according to Hamidreza Azizi at the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank.

Days after that decree was issued, a senior IRGC official – political deputy Brig. Gen. Yadollah Javani – told Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars that “Iran’s actions are defensive, although they may also take on an offensive aspect in the future. The IRGC is developing the ability to carry out operations “on enemy soil,” said another adviser to Vahidi, Mohammad Reza Naqdi. “We need to be able to move the operations to the enemy’s soil, whenever this is needed and ordered,” he told state broadcaster IRIB. The IRGC was tasked with being able to “launch attacks against the enemy in an intelligent, selective, and targeted manner.”

This would imply again targeting US military facilities in the region. A new generation of more maneuverable ballistic missiles with cluster warheads, plus innovative use of drones, indicates Iran has adapted tactics rapidly over recent months. “The regime has withstood the US/Israeli barrage and retaliation from the Gulf Arab states, and they are still standing,” according to H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Now they seek to transform this resilience into permanent political advantage in the region as opposed to letting the initiative waste away over time,” Hellyer told CNN.

“Tehran believes it has the military edge and is openly discussing going on the offensive instead of merely responding to American attacks,” says Trita Parsi at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “By that, Iran will not only have wrested control of the scope and geography of the war from the US, but also its timing.” Iran is preparing for short and long-term scenarios, Azizi believes. The current no-war-no-peace situation – with deepening economic problems – “may prompt the Iranian leadership to escalate in order to push Trump either to remove the naval blockade or to agree to an arrangement on terms more favorable to Iran,” he said.

Read more …

“New energy routes would take years to build and come at a heavy cost, IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi has told RT..”

Hormuz Can’t Be Replaced – Iranian General (RT)

The Strait of Hormuz will remain indispensable to global energy trade despite efforts by Persian Gulf states to develop alternative export routes, a top Iranian military advisor has told RT. In an exclusive interview with the outlet, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander and adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, argued that the strategic waterway cannot easily be replaced given the concentration of oil and gas production in the Gulf.


“The Strait of Hormuz will never lose importance. [The Persian Gulf] is the production site for oil and gas. Oil wells cannot be moved elsewhere,” Naqdi told RT correspondent Saman Kojouri. The veteran brigadier general also pointed to the time and expense involved in developing new energy infrastructure. “If they want to find alternative routes to transport oil and such, it takes many years and incurs very heavy costs,” he said. Oil-producing Gulf states have been pursuing additional infrastructure and export routes as shipping through the Strait remains severely disrupted, with July transit volumes down more than 80% from pre-conflict levels.

Saudi Arabia is considering another expansion of its East–West pipeline system, although an industry estimate cited by AFP suggests it could be completed only around 2030–31. The UAE is moving faster on an additional pipeline, which is expected next year, while a revived Iraq–Syria project has no timetable. Kuwait and Bahrain currently have no pipeline routes bypassing Hormuz. Elsewhere in the interview, Naqdi offered Iran’s version of the alleged missile plot that prompted US President Donald Trump to secretly switch planes while leaving Türkiye last month, claiming it had never existed.

Read more …

Yes, “Faster please.”

The Strait of Hormuz Is Open. Also Closed. It’s Complicated. (Stephen Green)

The Strait of Hormuz “will not be opened,” Iranian warned on Tuesday, “Until the U.S. commitments in the memorandum—including lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, lifting oil sanctions, ending threats and military operations on all fronts, and the other conditions to which the U.S. committed—are implemented.” I guess that settles it — the Strait is firmly in the Islamic Republic’s grip.Not so fast. On the flip side, President Donald Trump said earlier this week that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran “remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated.”


Who’s right? I guess the only way to tell is to try and figure out whether shipping is actually moving through Hormuz, and how much. For that, let’s go to CNN’s David Goldman, who’s been covering Gulf oil flows. Events there are moving so quickly that his headline a week ago was “The Trump administration claims oil is flowing normally again. There’s just one problem,” but his Monday headline read “Wait… how much oil is actually leaving the Persian Gulf?” This morning, things had moved this much further: “Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz.”

While “both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand,” Goldman wrote in his most recent report, “the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt.” “At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said this week that “It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.”

“The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran this week in theory allows Iran to begin charging tolls again. But it doesn’t appear the country has been able to,” Goldman added. Well, good. But still… what a mess. Just because Tehran’s grip has loosened doesn’t mean Hormuz is truly open. Tankers still must take evasive measures like leaving their transponders off and avoiding Iranian waters. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that oil flows out of the Gulf are back up to about 15 million barrels a day from the prewar 20 million. But that’s counting oil rerouted away from Hormuz and not just through Hormuz.

Prior to February 28, Tehran had never dared to completely close Hormuz to shipping. Doing so could pose an existential threat to the global economy, which could also put the regime at risk. Besides, like the Sword of Damocles, the real power lay in the threat. But then last summer, and again this spring, Trump went to Truth Social to demand “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” from the Islamic Republic. If the threat from Washington is existential, why not take the risk?

For whatever reason — maybe we really are dangerously low on munitions, maybe the White House decided that a collapsed Iran is a worse threat to the economy than the Islamic Republic is, maybe a lack of resolve, I don’t know — Trump still hasn’t followed through on his threat. And to think that back in March and April, it at least appeared that we were on the cusp of eliminating the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, and the lynchpin of Beijing and Moscow’s Middle East ambitions.

Instead, here we are in the waning days of summer arguing over who controls the Strait of Hormuz, when the answer appears to be nobody and everybody. Depending on who you ask and what measure of reduced oil flow counts as “open.” But looking at the bigger picture, the most important element might be this: “US Navy blockade has caused Iran’s oil exports to crater — and could finally destabilize regime.” After just six months, I hope it isn’t too soon for me to add, “Faster please.”

Read more …

It’s complicated but Iran is ‘losing territory’ in the Strait.

Iran Has Lost Significant Control of the Strait of Hormuz (CNN)

The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of the Iran war. Over the past several months, both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand – and the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt. At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.


More than 80% of liquids transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route – a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes – or have been “dark” transits that likely took the Omani route, according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data. Iran, declaring the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of ships that tried to to travel the waterway via the north coast of Oman. Despite the risk, most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran’s demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from US naval forces.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. That stands in stark contrast to a month ago, when Kpler observed virtually no shipping traffic via the Omani route. The sharp reduction in traffic around Iran’s preferred route has prevented Iran from charging tolls on ship traffic through the strait – as it did in the spring. The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran this week in theory allows Iran to begin charging tolls again. But it doesn’t appear the country has been able to, according to Kpler.

“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude oil Carriers (VLCCs) – the biggest oil tankers – to transit out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, then transfering the oil to customers’ tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

To evade Iran’s attacks, they’ve turned their transponders off, often for weeks on end. That so-called dark traffic appears to have eluded some data-tracking services like Kpler as well. Although some can be picked up on satellite, it’s harder to track via traditional means. But the United States, with significant military force on the water, has eyes on all ships passing through the strait and has reported significantly higher oil shipping numbers than most traditional estimates had previously suggested.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright last week said that combined oil transits through the strait and rerouted around the waterway totaled around 15 million barrels per day over the course of a week – much closer to the 20-million-barrel average from before the war. That led President Donald Trump to declare Monday that the United States has “total control over the strait,” a questionable claim he has reiterated often throughout the conflict. Iran’s continued attacks and oil flows still well below pre-war levels suggest the United States does not fully control the Strait of Hormuz.

But neither does Iran. “If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” said Pickering. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”But if tankers are really getting as much oil through the strait as the United States claims, then Iran’s deterrence and control of the Strait of Hormuz is diminished compared to what it was a month or two ago.

Complicating matters: Oman and Iran are engaging in talks to restore freedom of navigation through the strait – absent the United States – much to Trump’s dismay. It’s not clear how those discussions will affect oil traffic or control of the waterway. “I would take all the information and headlines ‘under advisement,’” said Lipow. “But it is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait.”

Read more …

“That’s a devastating admission from inside the tent.”

A Democrat Confessed the Midterms Could Be a Disaster for His Party (Margolis)

Harold Ford Jr. is, by any honest measure, the smarter liberal who joins the table on Fox News’ The Five. That’s not saying much when the other option is Jessica Tarlov, but hey, it’s something. Tarlov is a party booster every step of the way. She pushes Democrats’ talking points blindly. Ford is far more willing to call out his party when it deserves it, which he did on Tuesday, when he admitted that Democrats will lose if they embrace the DSA’s policies.


“If we believe that the DSA, their ideas are the right ones for the country, then we’re going to lose,” Ford said. He pointed to last week’s Wisconsin results as proof the socialist wing of the party is gaining ground it shouldn’t. “We may win a few primaries, and I was delighted to see the Wisconsin outcome last week,” he said, “with the young fellow Crowley coming from behind.” He added that another candidate, El-Sayed, “only won by a very, very small amount,” a margin Ford treated as a warning sign rather than a victory lap.

That’s a devastating admission from inside the tent. Ford said Democratic voters are more focused on kitchen-table economics than revolutionary politics, and that when they realize the Democratic Socialists of America “are not for them,” they’ll bolt. He even agreed with strategist James Carville’s blunt assessment from the night before, though Ford tried to soften it. “I won’t go as far as my friend James, who used the word ‘fools,'” he said. “But you are foolish if you believe these ideas are not only going to win, but are going to make the country stronger and better.” He said politics should exist “to try to make the country better, Democrat and Republican alike,” not to score television hits or, as he put it, be “supportive of terrorist organizations.”

Ford deserves credit for saying that on Fox News, where most Democrats show up to dodge the question entirely. But here’s the problem: Ford wants to build his party’s alternative economic message around eliminating “all of President Trump’s tariffs because they’re driving up costs.” That premise has a hole in it. Namely, the runaway inflation Democrats spent months promising the tariffs would trigger simply hasn’t shown up.

He also complained that the president abandoned the fight to shrink the federal government. “I’m disappointed with President Trump,” he said, arguing Trump should have cut the government “by 5%” to pay for tax relief, since “there’s enough waste there to do it.” What Ford leaves out is that his own party has fought Trump’s downsizing efforts at every turn, from the courts to the Capitol, treating every eliminated program like a five-alarm fire. Blaming Trump for a fight Democrats themselves have waged is ridiculous. His ire should have been directed more at his party for opposing it.

Still, the tariff blind spot and the government-waste denial don’t erase the core of what Ford got right. The Democrat Party has let a small, loud, ideologically rigid faction set the terms of its future, and the voters who actually decide elections are noticing. Meanwhile, Tarlov has been out there insisting that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) counts as a moderate.

Read more …

No contest.

Democrats Nominate a Socialist for Senate in Deep Red Florida (Rick Moran)

It’s rare that a political party lines up to jump off a cliff. That’s what the Democratic Party is doing in 2026. A newly minted Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) member defeated a Democratic Party establishment favorite who outraised the socialist by 20-to-1. It clearly demonstrated, if any more proof was necessary, that the Democrats are playing Russian Roulette with a bullet in every chamber.


huge underdog, raising less than a million dollars. And yet, she easily defeated former Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who testified against Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial. Vindman raised $20 million and was expected to coast to victory, setting up a November contest to fill the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term. Repeat after me: Democrats are cray-cray in a big way-way.

Nixon will be led to the slaughter in November, facing off against Sen. Ashley Moody, whom Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed to Rubio’s seat until the special election. = Moody probably can’t believe her luck. Florida just went from “lean Republican” to “Unbelievably safe.” Nixon ally, State Rep. Anna Eskamani (D-47th District), a progressive Democrat from Orlando, said Nixon’s campaign centered around working-class issues, from affordability to healthcare. Actually, the DSA doesn’t have an economic plan beyond “seizing the means of production” and probably setting up a guillotine on the Washington Mall.

“It really just speaks to saying that money doesn’t determine everything,” Eskamani said. “They’re tired of health care not being affordable and one job not being enough.” It also speaks to the suicidal nature of Democrats. They are moving, lemming-like, to the edge of the cliff and preparing to hand Republicans an easy win. With the Florida Senate race a virtual lock two and a half months from election day, Republicans can spend more resources on other, more competitive races. “It was a wild night in Florida politics,” Republican Rep. Randy Fine said at the victory party for the GOP nominee for governor, Rep. Byron Donalds.

“I mean, the Nixon win is the greatest gift ever. She’s crazy and should be in jail for the stuff she pulled on the House floor.”= Nixon brought a bright pink megaphone onto the House floor to loudly protest a congressional redistricting vote. Pacing the floor and shouting that the maps were “illegal” and “unconstitutional,” the commotion caused enough confusion that two fellow Democrats inadvertently voted yes on the GOP-backed map, thinking it was a quorum call. A Republican representative even filed a workers’ comp claim alleging hearing damage.

Dumb and crazy. Make sure you get a good seat for the inevitable flameout. During a previous special session on redistricting, Nixon was one of the lead organizers of a floor sit-in where Democratic lawmakers gathered around the House well, sang, and disrupted proceedings, leading House leadership to temporarily shut down the session and turn off the room’s broadcasting feeds. It wasn’t all roses for the GOP in Florida on primary night. The voters registered their displeasure with Republicans as well.

Politico: “On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsement didn’t prove to be the deciding factor in two races. In Florida’s 19th District, Trump’s endorsed candidate, Lauf, a former adviser at the U.S. Department of Commerce during the president’s first term, lost to Jim Schwartzel, a media executive and owner of a conservative talk radio station, by about 7 points. It was a crowded field, with several former congressmen, including former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and New York Rep. Chris Collins also running.

Under investigation by the House and shunned by some of his GOP colleagues in Congress, pressure has been building on Mills for weeks and only intensified recently as Republicans like DeSantis and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna came out against him. Mills has remained adamant that he has done nothing wrong amid a long line of incidents — including a restraining order placed on him at the request of a former girlfriend — and had defied calls from other Republicans to step down from his central Florida congressional seat.

GOP voters lanced a boil in getting rid of Mills in a safe Republican district. The national party can stop worrying.= Indeed, by taking Florida off the Democrats’ board, Republicans can breathe a lot easier. It’s still going to be a difficult year for Republicans as they are defending 22 seats compared to just 13 for Democrats. But their 53-47 advantage in the upper chamber gives them some wiggle room.

Read more …

“.. the Democrats’ new campaign tactic: bringing sexy back.”

Axios — Dems Might Be Commies but Hey, They’re Sexy! (Stephen Kruiser)

It has been quite interesting to watch how the hacks in the mainstream media have handled the family feud between the out and proud Democratic Socialists of America commies and their closeted commie elders in the Democratic Party establishment. There are days when it seems as if the media really wants the upstarts to win this one. Then there are others when they’re so nervous about how the changing of the guard might play out that they come perilously close to committing acts of journalism. No, really, I’ve seen it with my own eyes.


Today we’re going to look at how one alleged news organization — Axios — is dealing with it. I won’t give too much away here at the beginning, but let’s just say that the kids are going to need therapy when this is all over. Axios has pretensions of being the cutting edge future of journalism. Let’s take a look at a snippet from the site’s “About” page:We launched Axios originally to combat what we termed the “crap trap,” the perverted incentive of traditional media to mass produce click-bait nonsense to drive engagement and higher valuations. We rightly warned this was a fool’s path.

We can probably all agree that’s both noble and ambitious. If you have even a passing familiarity with the work of the Axios writers, you know that none of them have ever read the “Our Vision” section of the aforementioned “About” page. I often think that Axios only exists to make the Dem leg-humpers at Politico appear to be unbiased and full of gravitas. Near the end of last month, I wrote a column describing Axios as going “full fangirl” over Republican squishes. The Axios piece was a hot mess of cheerleading and wishcasting, which is fairly boilerplate for the organization. My Twitchy colleague Brett T. covered an example of the site’s latest bit of inane “Rah-Rah!” for the Democrats:

Axios’ Alex Thompson, who co-authored a book with CNN’s Jake Tapper about how the White House had fooled them about President Joe Biden’s cognitive decline with its “cheap fakes” defense, would like you to read an article by Avery Lotz about the Democrats’ new campaign tactic: bringing sexy back. Don’t think we haven’t noticed, James Talarico. If you need to pause to make sure that your last meal doesn’t start to come back up, it’s totally understandable. Here’s the post on X (TWEET) that Brett shared right after that paragraph:

That seems to me to be the kind of “click-bait nonsense” Axios is supposed to eschew in its efforts to not fall into the “crap trap.” The title of the article is, “Democrats enter their thirst trap era.” Are you not feeling the weightiness of this hard-hitting journalism? We’re almost a year away from the next time that the Pulitzer Prizes will be handed out but everyone else who might be in the running should voluntarily remove themselves from consideration.

Read more …

She says he saved her life by approving an experimental bone cancer treatment.

Being alive instead of dead can make you very grateful.

Natalie Harp is A Main Conduit Between Trump And The Outside World (CNN)

Natalie Harp wouldn’t take no for an answer. It was October 2023, and Donald Trump was due at a New York City courthouse to fight his latest set of legal troubles. But as the motorcade idled outside his Trump Tower residence, staffers confronted a more immediate problem: There wasn’t room for Harp, the hyper-loyal aide whose devotion to Trump had quickly entrenched her within his orbit.


A screaming match in the lobby ensued, with Harp insisting that Trump had personally asked her to attend the court appearance, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN. Denied a seat but determined not to be left behind, Harp jumped into an SUV trunk, according to the two sources and confirmed by a photo obtained by CNN. The episode, which has not been previously reported, served as an encapsulation of the role Harp has carved out in recent years as a constant and intensely dedicated presence at Trump’s side. Her methods have irked senior aides and at times prompted efforts to box her out of the president’s inner circle, according to multiple sources who described the dynamic to CNN.

A former right-wing television host, who began working for Trump after crediting him with saving her life, Harp has become a main conduit between the president and the outside world, passing along messages from allies and setting up meetings, tapping out Truth Social posts and toting printouts of laudatory articles, all while staying in close physical proximity at all hours of the day. “[Trump] likes the attention and the fact that she is 100% committed and loyal,” one White House adviser told CNN. “She doesn’t second guess, doesn’t question.”

Harp’s relationship with Trump came under fresh scrutiny this week after Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff mentioned her by name in a now-viral speech attacking Trump. The Georgia senator swiped at the president’s “travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar,” a reference to her joining the president — along with a very limited group — when he secretly boarded a smaller aircraft to leave Turkey due to a threat from Iran in July.

The comment spurred outrage from the White House, which repeatedly labeled Ossoff a “cringeworthy, feminine theatre kid” and “lightweight loser” — as well as rampant attention online. Harp’s rapid rise within Trump world has stood out in large part because of the intensity of her dedication to the president since joining his staff in 2022. Despite having no formal title on Trump’s reelection campaign, Harp trailed him across the country, feeding him positive stories, social media posts and other correspondence so frequently that allies dubbed her the “human printer.”


Illustrating how she’s become indispensable to Trump, one Republican lawmaker noted that while they occasionally reach out to the president directly, they always make sure Harp is aware. “She always responds. I don’t know how she manages it all,” the source said, adding that in addition to relaying messages to Trump, Harp often personally sends lawmakers articles or notes on the president’s behalf. Since following him to the White House, multiple sources said, Harp has been omnipresent. In videos of Oval Office signings and events reviewed by CNN, Harp can often be spotted on the outskirts of the room, smiling or nodding along with the president as he speaks.

She is frequently one of a smaller coterie of aides beside Trump as he travels to rallies.“Natalie is so fast,” Trump has mused to allies after asking her to find or print something for him.The ubiquity sometimes ruffles feathers within the White House, especially for some Trump advisers who at times have wanted to meet privately with the president — only to find Harp sitting in on the meeting as well, one of the sources familiar with the dynamic told CNN. The 35-year-old is also territorial about Trump and has told others that she only reports to him, irritating other staffers who work within the White House’s chain of command, another source said.

Read more …

Fang Fang, aka “Rusty Thumbs”.

Swalwell and Fang Fang Distilled (CTH)

Many people are interested in the John Solomon release of FBI information regarding former congressman Eric Swalwell and his relationship with a known Chinese operative named Fang Fang, aka Christine Fang. Personally, I’m not that interested in rehashing the Swallwell-Fang Fang storyline. However, there is a lot of mistaken information regarding the story. So, here’s the full background context that will hopefully make sense of the FBI conduct as it relates to the Chinese compromise.

[Fang Fang, aka “Rusty Thumbs”]


[Rusty Thumbs was chosen by the FBI as the codename because the rumor was that Swallwell liked a sexual position known as the “rusty trombone.” Fang would stimulate Swalwell thusly. I know, TMI.]

• The FBI has two basic missions. The #1 primary mission is to protect the interests of Washington DC officials from the outcome of their own conduct. The #2 secondary mission is to protect the American people from known wolves.

• The Dept of Justice National Security Division (DOJ-NSD) monitors foreign influence in Washington DC. The DOJ-NSD use the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) as the primary legal tool to monitor the political influence. Former Attorney General Eric Holder, on behalf of President Obama, took this monitoring to new political levels of weaponization.

These two facets come together in the story of California members of congress who are long known to have been the primary conduit of Chinese money into DNC operations at a federal and individual campaign level. The FBI have known about this for a long time, a very long time.

There was a Chinese Spy named Russell Lowe employed by former Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) for several decades. Russell Lowe began working with Dianne Feinstein in the 1970’s. According to reporting by CBS Lowe passed along information gained from Feinstein to the Chinese government. [H/T Rosie Memos] The story of Russell Lowe inside Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) Vice-Chair Dianne Feinstein’s political life surfaced as an outcome of the Fang-Fang revelations. However, in reality Fang-Fang entered the orbit of Eric Swalwell as a result of Feinstein’s compromise with the Chinese spy ring.

It is said that Feinstein’s staff introduced Fang Fang to Swalwell when the Freshman Congressman first won election in 2012, taking office in 2013. Who was Dianne Feinstein’s lead staff? Dan Jones.

Dan Jones left the SSCI prior to the 2016 election and went to work pushing the Trump-Russia narrative through his media contacts. Dianne Feinstein abdicated her Vice-Chair position on the SSCI after the 2016 election, to Mark Warner. Dan Jones took over funding Fusion-GPS and Chris Steele in 2017 at the same time Senator Mark Warner took over as SSCI vice-chairman. Dan Jones and Mark Warner coordinated the efforts outside and inside government on the same objective. The Senate Intel Committee was part of the Trump-Russia collusion effort.

As a result of their alignment and common purpose the SSCI didn’t investigate the origin of the Trump-Russia narrative; and instead positioned themselves as a shield to block any investigative inquiry into what took place.

Read more …

“At the same time that Fang was fundraising for Swalwell and sleeping with him, by his own admission, the files show that the FBI knew Fang was tied to China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), Beijing’s notorious intelligence service ..”

Pelosi, Democrats Kept Swalwell On Intel Committee Despite FBI Warnings (JTN)

Liaisons dangereuses: Swalwell admitted to an intimate relationship with a suspected Chinese spy, while he still sat on the House Intelligence Committee. The FBI had warned Democratic leadership about the risks years before he was removed from the seat. When allegations of Rep. Eric Swalwell’s relationship with a woman suspected of ties to Chinese intelligence first surfaced in 2020, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was briefed on the FBI’s findings. The public now knows the bureau had evidence at the time that the woman, Fang Fang, had potentially compromised Swalwell with sex, foreign interns and illicit donations, but Pelosi and Democrats still refused to remove the lawmaker from the powerful House Intelligence Committee.


The FBI briefings received by Pelosi and her Republican counterpart were so concerning to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy that he called for Swalwell to be booted from the sensitive committee where members have access to classified information.

Interns, influence, and illegal donations
The full extent of the FBI’s probe into Swalwell and Fang’s relationship was revealed on Monday when the White House Government Transparency Task Force released the investigation files that had been previously declassified by President Donald Trump. They show that Swalwell admitted to having sex with Fang, to his staff placing Fang’s interns in Congress, and to not having a strong enough campaign finance system to detect the straw donations she allegedly passed through U.S.-citizen conduits, Just the News reported. The memos indicate all of this information was possessed by the FBI at the time that it briefed then-Speaker Pelosi in December 2020.

At the same time that Fang was fundraising for Swalwell and sleeping with him, by his own admission, the files show that the FBI knew Fang was tied to China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), Beijing’s notorious intelligence service. In fact, the investigators specifically identified her parents as MSS agents.

Fang Fang’s efforts to influence U.S. politicians were first reported by Axios in 2020. According to the outlet’s comprehensive investigation, U.S. officials believed Fang sought to ingratiate herself with local politicians in the San Francisco Bay Area using campaign fundraising, networking, her charisma, and romantic or sexual relationships. Swalwell was identified as among the most significant targets of Fang. Swalwell has consistently maintained that he did nothing wrong, fully cooperated with the FBI investigation, and ceased communicating with Fang after the FBI provided him with a defensive briefing about her activities.

“A vehicle for political retaliation”: Swalwell’s lawyer says
“There is nothing new here. The government’s own memorandum confirms what Congressman Swalwell has said for more than a decade: he did nothing wrong, and there was no basis to charge him with any offense,” said Sara Azari, legal counsel for Swalwell, on Monday after the files were released. “What is new and deeply concerning is the apparent use of federal law enforcement information to punish or embarrass an outspoken critic of the current administration. An investigation that produced no charges and no finding of wrongdoing should not be resurrected years later as a vehicle for political retaliation.”

After that report, then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from Swalwell’s home state of California, said the allegations “disqualified” the congressman from serving on the Intelligence Committee and called for him to be removed from the panel. “Swalwell is a national security liability,” the Republican leader said in a post to social media.

McCarthy then requested a briefing from the FBI about the full extent of Swalwell’s involvement with Fang. After that briefing, which was also attended by Speaker Pelosi, McCarthy doubled down on his calls for Swalwell to be removed from the powerful committee. “One thing I know for sure — I had questions about whether he should. That’s the one question that was answered, he should not be on Intel,” McCarthy told reporters after the briefing.

After the Axios story, Pelosi confirmed that Democratic leadership was first briefed on Swalwell’s relationship with Fang in the Spring of 2015, shortly after the party nominated him to the Intelligence Committee. She said that after Congress was made aware, Democratic politicians cut off communication with Fang. “When that was made known to the members of Congress, it was over. That was the end of any communication with those people,” Pelosi said. The Speaker also said that Republicans were briefed about the relationship at the same time. “We knew when they knew,” explained Pelosi. Summing up her views on the matter, Speaker Pelosi told reporters that she did not “have any concerns about Mr. Swalwell.”

McCarthy filed a resolution in early 2021 that would remove Swalwell from the sensitive committee after Speaker Pelosi reappointed him to the panel in the new Congress. The House voted mostly along party lines to reject the measure with 200 votes for and 218 against. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff also backed Swalwell in the face of the resolution that would have removed him from the committee. Schiff, in a letter at the time of the vote, said that Swalwell was a “trusted member of our committee” and he had “acted fully in accordance with his responsibilities” after the 2015 counterintelligence briefing about Fang.

“Democratic leadership ‘jeopardized’ Congress”: McCarthy says
When Republicans regained control of the House in 2023, now-Speaker McCarthy blocked Swalwell from serving on the House Intelligence Committee, citing the lawmaker’s alleged relationship with Fang. “If you got the briefing I got from the FBI, you wouldn’t have Swalwell on any committee,” McCarthy said after blocking the appointment. “One thing I know for sure – I had questions about whether he should. That’s the one question that was answered, he should not be on Intel.”

The Republican Speaker told reporters that the Democratic leadership “jeopardized” Congress by allowing Swalwell to remain on the committee, which provides access to sensitive intelligence, for many years. “The only way that they even knew it came forward is when they went to nominate him to the Intel Committee. And then the FBI came and told the leadership then, he’s got a problem,” McCarthy explained. “And they kept him on. That jeopardized all of us.”

Read more …

How much longer, Tony?

Fauci Advisor Pleads Guilty to “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States” (CTH)

Dr. David Morens, 78, served as a senior adviser to Anthony Fauci (Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) from 2006 through 2022. Morens sits at the epicenter of the NIAID coverup to hide the origins of COVID-19. Today, Fauci’s Senior Advisor Dr. David Morens plead guilty to “Conspiracy to Commit Offenses and to Defraud the United States” in connection with his conspiring with Peter Danzak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, Dr Gerald Keusch, associate director at Boston University’s National Emerging Infectious Disease Laboratory Institute and a recipient of funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), together with others to defraud the public about NIH-funded gain-of-function research and the origin of COVID.


Morens and others plotted to conceal/destroy federal records re: COVID-19 and federal grants to avoid FOIA and the Federal Record Act. Morens admits to using his gmail account to intentionally defraud the U.S. government and conceal communication and records about his activities. In addition, Morens admits to receiving “gifts” of material value in exchange for his efforts on behalf of the co-conspirators. The conspiracy involved a “kickback” scheme in which Morens accepted and was promised gifts – including bottles of wine and meals at Michelin-starred restaurants – in exchange for performing “official acts that were favorable” to his co-conspirators.


VIA CBS – Washington — “A former senior adviser at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has pleaded guilty to a charge stemming from a scheme to hide federal records during the COVID-19 pandemic. Under a deal reached with federal prosecutors in Maryland, David Morens, 78, agreed to plead guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit offenses and to defraud the United States. He faces up to five years in prison.

Morens, a senior adviser at NIAID’s Office of the Director from 2006 to 2022, was indicted in April and charged with five counts for what prosecutors said at the time was his role in a scheme to defraud the U.S. by shielding federal records related to the COVID-19 pandemic from the public. Tim Belevetz, a lawyer for Morens, said, “By pleading guilty today, Dr. Morens has taken responsibility for what he did and will continue to do so.”

Prosecutors said Morens worked with two co-conspirators. The first, “co-conspirator 1,” served as the president and CEO of a New York-based nonprofit that received a grant in 2014 titled “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence.” The Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China, received a subaward from the New York group on the coronavirus grant, prosecutors said, though the National Institutes of Health terminated the award in April 2020 following allegations that COVID-19 emerged from the lab. The NIAID is part of the NIH.

The second co-conspirator was described in charging documents as a physician, scientist and professor who worked for an academic institute that received federal grants. Emails made public by the GOP-led Select Committee on the Coronavirus Pandemic indicate that the New York-based nonprofit is the EcoHealth Alliance and co-conspirator 1 is its president, Peter Daszak. The indictment stemmed from several Freedom of Information Act requests NIAID received between April 2020 and December 2022 that sought communications between Morens, the New York-based nonprofit and its president.”

Read more …

“Brussels keeps misreading public backlash as foreign influence when much of it is simply exhaustion with elite overreach and failure..”

Hey Ursula, Angry Voters Aren’t ‘Pro-Russian’, Just Fed Up (Rachel Marsden)

Look, Queen Ursula, we need to talk, girlfriend. Yes, I’m addressing you directly, EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, because I’m not going to pretend that there’s anyone in charge in Europe who’s actually elected by the people and crafting EU policy. And since you’ve apparently been more interested in monitoring Russian media platforms for dissident views that could potentially qualify as “Russian-aligned” than stopping online clarion calls for mass migration pushes into the EU, RT seems as good a place as any for an intervention.


Because the problem for the EU is that it’s getting so dissociated from the realities and concerns of its own people that even the pure data wonks are starting to sound the alarm. Seat projections for the EU parliament are set to swing populist to the detriment of the right-left establishment majority for the first time ever, according to recent reporting by Euronews on research data complied by the Europe Elects platform.

Now, the next EU election isn’t until 2029, which is a long way off, and you could very well decide to drop all of this in someone else’s lap by then. After all, you keep telling us that Putin is coming to Western Europe around that time, so maybe you’ll want to personally be busy window shopping in New York by then, instead of dealing with the headache of his arrival – or alternatively, his non-arrival after spending years scaring up billions from European taxpayer pockets for military hardware to mark the occasion.

I hate to break it to you, Queen, but the data from this very non-Russian research outfit (Europe Elects), published by a non-Russian media outlet (Euronews), is basically saying that right now, Europeans are looking more increasingly pro-Russian than not. To the point where the EU parliament, after the next election, could see pro-Russian gains and the anti-Russian firewall lose its majority. Or at least that’s how you guys see it when you look down on the plebes.

Because apparently there is no such thing as people who are just genuinely fed up with how you guys are running things. We either support you – or support Russia. We’re just mindless units to be fought over, like the last jars of Nutella in a supermarket blowout sale. Look, unlike you guys, the average European is fed up with hearing about Russia and Ukraine, and with European policies revolving around that conflict and sucking the life out of everything else that actually falls within your purview.

Perhaps it would be different if you had everything else under control, and had the luxury of jacking around outside of the Eurozone that you’re actually responsible for – but that’s clearly not the case. The usual way that politics is supposed to work is that the establishment takes action A, and its impact is direct, positive, and visible on issue A. Instead, what we’re getting is action A being taken on issue A, and causing not only aggravation and worsening of issue A, but also of issues B, C, D, E… which happened to be more or less fine before. This is what has happened with the EU’s Ukraine obsession, and now it seems like it’s becoming par for the course for other issues, too.

It’s like we’re spending money to see pure ideology in action rather than success as defined in the dictionary and not through some kind of Orwellian rhetoric that flips everything on its head.In just the latest example, even one of the most stalwart establishment entities of an EU state has explicitly asked what the heck you think you’re doing. The EU has fallen into line in pushing this authoritarian control of internet use, promoting a “harmonized” bloc-wide control of internet use under the pretext of protecting kids – which apparently requires ID collection from every single adult user, as well.

Turns out that even the French Constitutional Court told French lawmakers to take their law and shove it somewhere else other than up the rears of the French populace. “By prohibiting minors under the age of 15 from accessing certain online services, the law inherently requires every person, even an adult, to prove their age before accessing them,” the court ruled. “By failing to specify the conditions and limits under which such proof must be provided, the legislature has not established the legal safeguards necessary to ensure compliance with these requirements.”

The court obviously doesn’t understand that the whole idea is to use kids to push a mass surveillance scheme. Or else it does understand – and isn’t going for it. Is the judge populist? Does he have a photo of Putin hidden in his desk? Or maybe the judge – like so many others – is just genuinely fed up with establishment hacks on all sides colluding with some opaque agenda whose advancement routinely seems to leave the average person worse off.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/piloly/status/2089825619529851080?s=20 https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2089935234066227208?s=20

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in wartime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Home Forums Debt Rattle August 20 2026

Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 40 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #247793

    EdgarDegas A la mer 1863 • Economic D-Day (ZH) • UAE Cuts Ties As Iran Warns Gulf States Against Helping Washington (ZH) • Iran’s Latest Warning Signa
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle August 20 2026]

    #247806
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    LARRY & PEPE:Trump Tried to Buy Iran’s Revolutionary Guard IRAN REJECTS TRUMP’S BILLIONS IN BRIBES

    #247807
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    NATO’s Plans for Total Global Dominance & The Bunker State | Nel Bonilla

    #247810
    Dr. D
    Participant

    https://sinfest.xyz/btphp/comics/2026-08-20.jpg
    Trump Is Desperate to Save the Dollar Ponzi Scheme UNZ
    Which is why he’s backing the U.S. with productivity, oil, and gold — the #Opposite of a Ponzi. You’re a genius.

    But Dollar — suddenly! One day! — from 101 to almost 97. Gold up $200 in a pop. Etherium up 20% in an hour. Oil at $88 or something. This is a day-spike, but does it MEAN something? Probably. Probably they’re prepping for the Sept 22nd market crash, set up out of Japan to crush Europe. However, we will experience it too. And shift the US$ to the new Tether/gold basis, off the Ponzi basis. That causes ripples, same as when they put it ON, in 1974, or tried the financial coup in 2008.

    Speaking of doing coups for oligarchs: “Barack Hussein Obama said ‘I want this done,’ ” I want to overthrow the United States government. @CIADirector “All the world can now see the truth: Brennan, Clapper and Comey manipulated…”

    This is why I always trust the CIA, the FBI, and all the Experts, if they are headlined by globe-trotting oligarchs like Bezos and Murdoch. Yup. RussiaRussiaRussia. When have they ever lied?

    Starlink 11,000 satellites. We’re all going to die, aren’t we? There’s no escaping Skynet now.

    ““.. Kpler Says US Navy Gaining Ground In Hormuz ..”

    I mean, sure, but they can always get a few missiles. We already know England will sell hundreds to any Nazi regime they can find.

    Also in the article: Iran used Words. Lots of them! Nouns, Adjectives, Verbs… They did NOT use artillery and missiles though. I mean, two? Easily shot down? Maybe they weren’t even shot, maybe Iran lobbed them while having no more targeting gear to assemble them with. Who knows?

    But they’re not out of “Words” yet. Okay. Words are a renewable resource out your air hole.

    “• Iran’s Latest Warning Signals The Hardliners Are Just Getting Started (CNN)

    They also have a lot of “Signals”. They are signaling the f—k out of this puppy. Direct, hard, firm Signals. …And no bombs. Okay well “Men” and “Armies” ignore trash talk. Only little sissy girls and the Media (but I repeat myself) pretend that Talk = Violence. It’s not. Clue phone.

    Also, do they plan on ever attacking us sometime? I’m ridiculously disappointed in them. I mean, don’t they love us anymore? C’mon, there are MILLIONS of major unprotected targets in the U.S. and all U.S. so-called security is a joke. Can’t you PRETEND to care and hit at least ONE of them? Don’t let Trans-Furries out do you, Iran!

    Do we need to mail you the definition of “War” here? Trying to keep up general respect for the “enemy” but Iran makes it so, so hard.

    “A new generation of more maneuverable ballistic missiles with cluster warheads, plus innovative use of drones, indicates Iran has adapted tactics rapidly over recent months”

    This is true, but they have like TWO of them. Because they’re in blockade and depended on China and Russia who both bailed. So it wouldn’t matter if they had Jewish Space Lasers, if they can only get off one shot per month.

    However, the MEDIA is their army, and Lloyd’s of London is their Commander. What more do you need?

    “New energy routes would take years to build and come at a heavy cost, IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi has told RT..” • Hormuz Can’t Be Replaced – Iranian General (RT)

    Sir? Time Exists. That fact is in the PAST, not the Future. We ALREADY re-routed, past tense. It’s over.

    Boy he’s got him some great WORDS though. The media lobs those WORDS daily.

    “The Strait of Hormuz “will not be opened,” Iranian warned on Tuesday,”

    Hundreds of ships are already transiting. Sooo…??? Discuss? Why would we want it opened faster? Only Europe needs it. Please never open it at all.

    the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.”

    This is probably true, day by day. Every day they have one fewer missile and boat to send. Without Russia and China, they’re screwed. So we can easily assume that Trump cut a deal beforehand in Alaska and at the China meeting. He doesn’t SEEM to have visibly given them anything, so they must not like Iran much either. Only the CIA and Media like them.

    ““We may win a few primaries, and I was delighted to see the Wisconsin outcome last week,” he said, “with the young fellow Crowley coming from behind.” El-Sayed, “only won by a very, very small amount,”

    It seems impossible both were not voter-fraud in a very, very clean and serious way. They had all the signs the DNC establishment dropped THOUSANDS of fake ballots at 3am – worse than any Joe Biden 3am spike. Yes, it’s easy to get in a position where the Party’s Base has to be radical to win…but the general population of your area would prevent them winning in the general. This is constantly true on all sides. A rabidly pro-life, pro-gun, pro-Christian Republican would carry the same risk.

    “A newly minted Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) member defeated a Democratic Party establishment favorite who outraised the socialist by 20-to-1.”

    Ta-dah! If I were Trump and Musk, I’d PAY them to do this.

    What do the DNC need to do? A: Have a platform and help people again. That’s it. That’s the magic. El-Sayed may be a nation-ending radical, but on the ground he’s just pitching wages and health care. …WHICH MEANS THE DEMOCRATS AREN’T. They are selling Orange Man Bad, because they have NO coherent ideas or policies at all, not even LYING. They’re like “Vote for me, you’ll get nothing!” DSA has the sense to LIE and PRETEND to offer something, which they’ll double-cross by giving you (no) Health Care in a bankrupt, Stalinist State.

    Anyway, this continues that Trump has no issues over Iran in the midterms. None.

    “eliminating “all of President Trump’s tariffs because they’re driving up costs.” That premise has a hole in it. Namely, the runaway inflation Democrats spent months promising the tariffs would trigger simply hasn’t shown up.”

    Yeah, I was just going to add. In fact, even WITH Iran gas prices, general inflation isn’t showing up, passing through (yet). It’s only gas as the one-hit. Inflation isn’t great, but it’s identical to the last 20 years. Way, WAY lower — almost flat — compared to Biden.

    “Axios — Dems Might Be Commies but Hey, They’re Sexy! (Stephen Kruiser)

    They’re the young, and the Left. They only live on Vibes. Never a fact to be found, because if you FEEL it enough, it just becomes true. Meta-contect of that Axios Insert Pic: That’s ‘I’m cheating on my boyfriend and would at the drop of a hat, that’s very cool,’ shows strong values of your in-group. Yup. True. And disavow. Stay away from anyone like this. This, btw, is how they got Justin Trudeau in, one of the worst, most racist, and catastrophic Prime Ministers of all time, with GDP going straight down, and women have yet to take responsibility for it.

    Their argument – because I talk to them and ask – is that Republicans would vote for Sarah Palin just because she’s hot, so it’s just what we’re doing! 1) Ew, my God, no. 2) Even people who think she’s attractive, vote her platform, this literally doesn’t happen. 3) What do you think men are? 4) If this is bad — very bad! — why is it not bad when you do it? 5) Also the Media made all this up on TikTok, Sarah Palin or whoever is not really a Thing. That’s not “Reality”, woman, it’s 8th grade girls-table stuff. No one actually behaves that way. But it is to them!!!

    But they did to elect Justin! Put him over the edge. But there’s no Canadian Politics anyway, it’s all “Selection”, as we see with Poilievre, and Carney being air-dropped in like an alien-squiddy. This has happened most of my life that none of the Prime Ministers seem duly elected, each one part of a back-room arrangement in defiance of the voters. Even before Malrooney.

    But I’m waiting for answers on how Canada should best be saved, as well as productive plans on how the U.S. should act.

    ““At the same time that Fang was fundraising for Swalwell and sleeping with him, by his own admission, the files show that the FBI knew Fang was tied to China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), Beijing’s notorious intelligence service ..”

    The FBI refused to release this – and save U.S. national security in any way – because “Congressmen would be indicated.” Oh, Great! So there are so, so many OTHER Congressmen doing the same thing, it might embarrass them, and you’d rather have spies in Feinstein’s office every day instead? Go on, tell me all about this!

    Thankfully just them. Oh wait, no: the NSA said the same thing yesterday, they had EVERY record that the 2020 election was compromised, REFUSED TO GIVE THE INTEL. Why? Because their one and only job is to CREATE Intel docs. But the only customer of the Intel Docs is the President, their boss and direct-report. So they “decided” not to tell him. Because it would be embarrassing, and ya know, saving the country MIGHT make them LOOK partisan and political. So they’d rather make Intel Docs and not let anyone read them. No one at all. Put them under a basket. Totally logical.

    THAT’S NOT ALL! But wait, there’s more! So AFTER that election, THEN you release the docs, the truth, to the NEW (possibly erroneous) President and boss. But they felt Biden wouldn’t want that, you know, reading his mind and “Not being political” again, so they ALSO didn’t release them.

    Then there was a Congressional Midterm, and it was an election, so they didn’t release them.

    Then it was a Presidential election, 4 years later, and they couldn’t release them.

    Then they’d dragged their feet so long, it was embarrassing, and looked political again, and couldn’t release them.

    …You getting the picture here? Where “Experts”, “Government” had ONE JOB, and couldn’t do it? At millions and millions and millions spent, with all of Congress and the nation at stake, but ya know, middle-manager zoom conferences, couldn’t make a decision.

    Here’s the deal: Your job is to make Intel Docs … FOR SOMEBODY. Whatever is in them, too bad. That’s your ONE Job. If you miss that, 1) everyone should be summarily fired but 2) Too bad for you. You had ONE Job, now you need to release them the second the first problem comes to your attention, that they weren’t released yesterday, when they should have been. That’s the new least-bad situation. 3) If it’s now a year from now, and not released, see #2, where TODAY is still the least-bad release date, whether you look partisan or political or not, you’re DEFINITELY going to look untrustworthy and compromised with each additional day that passes. 4) If that doesn’t happen, refer to #2 and #3, as every day ups the problem by a few percent.

    And here we are. STILL Not released, the NSA looks so corrupt now they should be disbanded, turning a tiny bureaucratic pothole into a department and nation-ending crisis. Now it’s not released by them, but IS leaked in the news, with all their 5 years of daily internal dialogue and excuses about how “Now is not a good time”(to do our jobs) while the Republic falls and the American people are battered. While you make 6-figures and the average wage is $36,000.

    So. FBI: can’t be trusted, allow all treason. CIA: can’t be trusted, Plans and Executes all Treason. NSA: can’t be trusted, hides all Treason. That’s why when they’re on Fox News, I believe their every word.

    But we have a solution: More Government. That’ll fix’r.

    And his all started with Swawell, where they could have just pitched him overboard and kept all the rest of the treasonous rats in place. Nope. Eventually 99% corruption is not enough, you need it to be 100%

    “• Fauci Advisor Pleads Guilty to “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States” (CTH)

    He conspired with nobody, since he was the only one charged. Like Ghislane. She trafficked kids to no one.

    “Because the problem for the EU is that it’s getting so dissociated from the realities and concerns of its own people that even the pure data wonks are starting to sound the alarm.”

    As we said every day since before 1999. Before they even existed. Right Again, it was so, so easy to see.

    When fully ramped, this factory will pump out 10 million humanoid robots per year “

    We don’t need 10 million human robots on earth in total, so I’d say no to this.

    Okay, they’re built and out: what do they DO? What do they eat? Who fixes them since they’re always broken, like all computers and cars are? None of your Window 11, GM OnStar cars work, do their basic functions at all, not even badly. So what can we expect his robots to NOT do? Wash dishes? I can do that for free.

    No idea what goes through their crooked, demented little heads.

    Oh, speaking of “Always broken, humans hate tech with a burning, hell-fire passion” there is a new tractor company with no computers. Because John Deere seems to be trying to cause a human famine as none of their stuff can be fixed anymore. This company is in Canada. Add it to all the kids giving up on streaming, buying the physical CDs and putting them next to their 33 record collections. THAT is how bad tech sucks. Musk included.

    #247811
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Aww, missed that:

    Sinfest

    #247812
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    TRUMP ‘BEGINS’ MAJOR ECONOMIC WAR ON IRAN, ISRAEL SEND WARNING TO TURKEY AND SYRIA w/ Larry Johnson

    #247813
    Dr. D
    Participant

    “NATO’s Plans for Total Global Dominance & The Bunker State | Nel Bonilla

    There is no “NATO”. Problem solved. Trump fixed that and you’re welcome.

    What “Bunker state”? I missed this entirely in their discussion.

    I wouldn’t invest in this wandering interview. As an academic, all her premises are abstractions. Like, she actually has a random grab-bag of facts! So that’s a rare plus. But the facts make no coherence. “NATO is going to enforce…” How? How, Ma’am? NATO is broke and the combined NATO forces of Europe could be beaten by the Girls Scouts of Ohio. “NATO 2.0 moved out-of-zone” True, okay, I can accept that premise, but WHY? Who did that? It was totally illegal, so WHO decided this and why? “NATO demanded 3% increases (to bankroll projects)” No. “NATO” hadn’t paid their EXISTING dues for 25 years. So they weren’t “Increasing”. NATO 3.0 is run by the United States (they are European and incapable of acting or taking responsibility) who has STOPPED all payments and arms to NATO. So…what NATO? What United States? NATO has “Plans” — none of which has funding or has come to fruition in years. So, great. We all have Plans.

    Etc. So if you already have a broken worldview and don’t update it, then this is the interview for you. All hand-waving abstractions. Best example: “Is NATO a driver or a Node?” “NATO is a Node, and they are building other military nodes, like NATO, in other regions.” End. Guys? THEN WHO IS THE DRIVER? Boy, that seems like the story here! NATO is a puppet of no essential meaning according to you, so who is the mover? The first actor? A: They have no interest in this at all. They’re not dodging it: Doesn’t even occur to them to find out “What’s going on.” “NATO” is an “Institution” and an “Abstract word” is enough for them. I named it, so that’s done, I don’t need to understand it and act too! What do you take me for? I’m European! I criticize things, I don’t “Act” and “Do Work”! “Working” is for Peasants!

    We passively Opine on NATO, we don’t steer it!

    However, not a CIA agent for a change. And she had like a dozen facts in a hour – one every 10 minutes – so that’s a modest improvement.

    #247816
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    The American System vs British Free Trade | History or Mythology? | Dr Warwick Powell

    #247818
    zerosum
    Participant

    “ECONOMIC D-DAY”

    a complete and immediate severance of all economic ties with Tehran.

    Trump will unleash severe economic consequences against “ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran.”
    ————-
    Copilot answer

    You’re zooming out to something big here—
    **“ECONOMIC D‑DAY” as systemic collapse vs Gaza as a lived, ongoing collapse.

    ### What “ECONOMIC D‑DAY” would feel like

    Think of a **global or regional systemic break**:

    – **Financial:**
    **Bank failures, currency crises, frozen credit**, sovereign defaults, capital controls.

    – **Trade & logistics:**
    **Ports jammed, shipping insurance withdrawn, fuel shortages**, container flows collapsing.

    – **Domestic impact:**
    – **Food:** price spikes, rationing, shortages in poorer regions.
    – **Energy:** rolling blackouts, fuel lines, industrial shutdowns.
    – **Work:** mass unemployment, informal economies exploding.
    – **State capacity:** weaker states lose control fastest; stronger ones triage.

    It’s chaotic, but **not uniformly Gaza‑level**—because most places still have:

    – multiple borders
    – diversified supply chains
    – some fiscal tools
    – some infrastructure intact
    – some humanitarian capacity

    ### What Gaza is right now

    Gaza is what happens when **economic collapse, physical destruction, and hard enclosure** all stack and stay:

    – **Physical damage:**
    ~82% of structures damaged; large portions outright destroyed.
    – **Displacement:**
    ~1.9 million internally displaced; ~60% lost their homes.
    – **Economy:**
    Productive infrastructure (factories, workshops, farms, utilities) heavily degraded or gone.

    – **Health:**
    Severe shortages of medicines, dialysis supplies, insulin; generators failing for hospitals.
    – **WASH / sanitation:**
    Waste, water, sewage systems near failure; rodent and pest risks high; disease risk chronic.
    – **Aid dependence:**
    Humanitarian operations themselves are breaking—fuel, spare parts, funding shortfalls.
    This isn’t just “economic crisis”—it’s **structural collapse under armed constraint**.

    ### How “ECONOMIC D‑DAY” compares to Gaza

    **Similarities:**

    – **System stress:**
    Both involve systems pushed beyond design limits—energy, logistics, finance, health.

    – **Human impact:**
    Hunger, unemployment, loss of security, erosion of trust in institutions.

    – **Time dimension:**
    Once past a threshold, both move from “crisis” to **chronic degradation**.

    **Differences:**

    – **Agency & enclosure:**
    – Economic D‑DAY: mostly emergent from systemic interactions, even if triggered by policy or war.
    – Gaza: **deliberately enclosed**, with movement, reconstruction, and economic life externally constrained.

    – **Exit options:**
    – Economic D‑DAY: some states can devalue, restructure, pivot trade, migrate, renegotiate.
    – Gaza: **no meaningful exit**—borders, airspace, and reconstruction flows are controlled.

    – **Reconstruction capacity:**
    – Economic D‑DAY: capital still exists somewhere; rebuilding is a political and financial problem.
    – Gaza: reconstruction is **politically gated**, not just financially constrained.

    ### If you’re really asking:

    > *“Does ECONOMIC D‑DAY turn more places into something Gaza‑like?”*

    My clean answer:

    – **Economically:** some regions could experience Gaza‑level poverty, unemployment, and service collapse.
    – **Structurally:** without **hard military enclosure**, most won’t reach Gaza’s combination of:
    – destroyed housing stock
    – blocked borders
    – controlled reconstruction
    – multi‑year high‑intensity conflict

    Gaza is **not just an economic failure**—it’s what happens when **economy, infrastructure, and freedom of movement are all simultaneously broken and kept that way.**

    —————

    #247819
    zerosum
    Participant

    Claude AI added.

    Good context — this actually helps me sharpen a few things Copilot’s answer didn’t have, since this “Economic D-Day” announcement is very recent (Trump made it Wednesday, August 19, 2026 — this week, and there’s an active US-Iran conflict context, not just a hypothetical). A few things worth adding:

    1. This isn’t hypothetical — there’s important context Copilot’s answer missed

    This isn’t a standalone sanctions threat; it’s happening in the middle of an active US-Iran military confrontation. Recent reporting indicates Trump described Iran’s navy and air force as destroyed, its production facilities reduced to “rubble,” and its currency “worthless”. The announcement follows a pressure campaign the Trump administration has waged since April under the banner Operation Economic Fury, and comes alongside a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz intended to keep anything from going in or out of Iranian ports. So “Economic D-Day” is layered on top of a blockade and apparent military degradation — a combination, not sanctions alone. That combination (military destruction + blockade + secondary sanctions) is actually structurally closer to Gaza’s situation than Copilot’s answer suggested, since it includes physical/logistical enclosure, not just financial isolation.
    CNBC + 2

    2. The mechanism is specific and real — “secondary sanctions”

    The “any country that allows…” language is the well-established US legal tool of secondary sanctions — using access to the US dollar and financial system as leverage over third countries, not just Iran itself. This is the same mechanism used in the 2018 “maximum pressure” campaign after the JCPOA withdrawal. Worth noting concretely: the announcement came less than a day after the UAE suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran, cutting off one of Tehran’s most important commercial gateways, reportedly after pressure from Washington on the UAE to crack down on Iranian financial networks operating through Dubai. That’s a live example of secondary-sanctions pressure already working as intended — a real-time case study, not a theoretical one.
    RedState
    CNBC

    3. There’s a contested framing worth flagging

    Iran’s government has pushed back hard on the “Economic D-Day” framing. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the threat, calling it a diversion from America’s own debt and interest-rate problems, and accused the US of “economic terrorism,” warning the campaign threatens the broader global economy and the sovereignty of countries beyond Iran. That’s a useful counter-framing to include if you’re trying to reason about this even-handedly — one side calls it justified pressure against a bad actor, the other calls it a form of economic warfare against not just Iran but any state doing business with it.
    The Hill

    4. A structural correction to Copilot’s comparison

    Copilot’s answer treats “Economic D-Day” as an abstract systemic scenario and Gaza as a deliberately enclosed one — but given what’s actually happening (naval blockade + military destruction + secondary sanctions, aimed at a state actor), the current Iran campaign is arguably less like an emergent global financial crisis and more like a targeted siege-and-isolation strategy — closer in kind (though very different in scale, cause, and human toll) to Gaza’s blockade than Copilot’s framing suggests. The key difference that still holds: Gaza involves direct territorial control over movement of people and goods in/out of a small strip of land with a trapped civilian population; Iran is a large, resource-rich state with land borders, domestic production capacity, and alternative trade partners (China, Russia) that make full “Gaza-style” enclosure much harder to achieve even under maximum pressure.

    One honest caveat: this is a live, fast-moving, and politically contested situation (US-Iran conflict, competing narratives from Washington and Tehran) — worth treating anything beyond the sourced facts above as provisional, and worth checking for updates if you’re using this for anything time-sensitive.
    ———–

    #247820
    zerosum
    Participant

    Both of those answers, (from copilot and Claude), are helpful to me, in trying to understand what is happening.

    #247822
    zerosum
    Participant

    🚀 7-HOUR MEGA-STRIKE: Iskanders, Zircons & 200 Drones Wreck Kyiv, Brovary & Boryspil💥MS 2026.08.20

    #247823
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Pepe Escobar: Trump Made a Move on Iran’s General—Tehran Just Wiped Out His Entire Strategy

    #247824
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Michael Hudson: The West’s Financial System on the Brink of Collapse

    #247828
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    They tried to bomb Iran to death, says Prof Seyed Marandi, now they’re trying to starve us. But Iran is going on the attack. The only way this can end is if Trump carries out the agreed terms, including Israel out of Gaza and Lebanon

    #247829
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    BREAKING: U.S. LOSES CONTROL OF U.S. TREASURIES AND OIL PRICES — W/ PHILIP PILKINGTON

    #247832
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    That’s what happens when the system collapses

    #247833
    charles
    Participant

    Russian shelling of Ukraine is taking its toll. Ukraine shelling of Russia is not. It is starting to show on the line of combat contact. Russia is moving faster with less risk. The acceleration is noticeable. Some really bad people are probably panicking. Say your prayers.

    #247837
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    TRUMP’S ECONOMIC WARFARE ON IRAN WILL DESTROY THE U.S. ECONOMY — w/ Prof. Michael Hudson

    #247845

    I was just watching Jessica Rose and Jeffrey Tucker. At 51:09, Tucker says that David Morens said in emails that he’ll probably go to jail, but he’ll be so glad because he’ll finally get to tell the truth.

    #247846
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Richard Wolff & Michael Hudson:Trump Declares Most Crushing Economic Operation in US History on Iran

    #247847
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Andrei Martyanov: No Deal, More Pain: Why Trump is Walking Away from the Iran Table

    #247848
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Larry Johnson: Bessent: “We Will COLLAPSE the Iranian Regime” as China REJECTS U.S. Sanctions

    #247849
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Scott Ritter: Iran Orders Strike on EUROPE?! Trump Preparing NUCLEAR War

    #247850
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    EXCLUSIVE Pravin: Trump Asked His TOP General “Can I Use NUKES on Iran?”Trump Tried to BRIBE Iran.

    #247851
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    A Mass Panic began in KIEV: a 50,000-Strong North Korean Army entered UKRAINE and launched an ATTACK

    #247852
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Russia Massive Kiev Strike More Coming; Orekhov Troops Panic; Dobropilia Falling; Ukraine Crisis

    #247853
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    guest Scott Ritter. America’s Secret Laws for Absolute Power

    #247854
    tboc
    Participant

    Just a reminder it was Raygun who ended federal funding for housing the mentally ill and incompetent. (Raygun was a democrat wasn’t he?) Did that not just release a group of disturbed humans back on the street. Ever wonder how mental incompetance became a get out of jail free card?

    I have been musing of late what is the endorphin reward for aspiring to ignorance. Reading tweets latelly, that must be one hell of a high.

    and to once again bore you with some numbers – divide 10 by 250 10/250= 0.04 or .04%.
    Sapiens sapiens has two hundred and fifth thousand years of history. Modern man with the dawn of agriculture and writin, excluding Stone Age carvings, has ten thousand years of history. Everything from Gobekli Tepe fall, roughly, within this ten thousand year window. That is, .04% of human histroy is the time frame for this “piece of work’ that is modern man.
    I have to remind myself of this each time the vulgar war mongers and adherrants to violence have an upsugence.
    “Aim for the bottom, it’s always there”

    i beat them with my hands until my hands were bloody and then i beat hem with a strap, now i will beat them with a rubber hose – options remain open

    #247866
    John Day
    Participant

    There Will Be No Alternative https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/there-will-be-no-alternative

    The world is burning up emergency reserves of oil, gas and refined fuels, while primary flows remain blocked, as if primary flows are being used, not emergency reserves. This will end suddenly, like Wile-E-Coyote going off a cliff.
    Why are we being set up this way?
    I remember the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo against countries that supported Israel in the September war. Americans were shocked, even traumatized, sat in gas lines for hours, started buyng VW Beetles, Toyotas and those little Honda cars. We were never the same, though most people now never knew those days.
    This will be worse by all calculations. They are not difficult calculations, looking at what percentage of oil has been pulled off the market. It is more than 1973 and 1979 together. The strategic petroleum reserves that were put in place after 1973 are being exhausted, in order to re-create the shock they were designed to prevent.
    The global financial system is stressed, chronically stressed, paying too much debt-service for nothing in return, except maintaining the financial system at higher parasitic cost every day. Financial systems re-set under stress periodically, about every 4 generations, like after WW-2, for instance.
    Is this prelude to a global financial and economic reset? I have not been consulted or informed, though nobody except the 0.001% gets let in on these things.
    The war against oil, gas and fertilizer is a war against people surviving. There will be some alternative other than death presented to us. We are likely to take it.

    Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-20
    The Treasury blinked. Hours before a 20Y auction that was tracking toward the highest yield on record, Bessent doubled long-end buyback operations from $2bn to $4bn – and total US debt crossed $40 trillion the same afternoon. Gold ripped ~$175, the dollar hit an 11-week low, bitcoin cleared $70k, and GDX had its best day in 52 weeks. Everything else – Hormuz tanker turnbacks, the Kyiv mega-strike, Trump’s “Economic D-Day” on Iran – is running in parallel and got mostly drowned out by the bond desk.​..
    ​..Treasury: buybacks doubled to $4bn/op, $40T crossed, 20Y auction tails anyway​ – The 20Y priced at 5.204% vs 5.199% WI – a 0.5bp tail, biggest since February, despite the intervention (zerohedge). Without it, the auction would have been the highest-yielding 20Y on record; it closed just inside the Oct ’23 print of 5.245% (zerohedge).
    ​ 30Y fell ~9bps to 5.196%, 10Y to 4.647%; the 30Y fixed mortgage reached 6.75% on Tuesday, against a 10Y that traded below 4% before the Iran war began in late February (shanaka86).​..
    ​..Interest cost: total US interest now $1.4tn, on track to pass Social Security’s $1.6tn by 2028 (zerohedge). That’s $3.8bn/day, versus $3.1bn on Medicare and $2.5bn on defense (KobeissiLetter). Monday’s semi-annual coupon payment was $85bn – the largest on record (zerohedge).​..
    ​..Structural frame of the day from TaviCosta: US debt-to-GDP is now roughly at WWII levels, but back then nearly half of Treasuries were backed by gold – today it’s about 3%.​..
    ​..Iran weighs striking US military targets inside Europe. FT-sourced: IRGC has assessed strikes on Bulgaria’s Bezmer Air Base and RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus once its 3–4 week ultimatum expires (HormuzLetter, HormuzReport, zerohedge).​..
    ​..Hormuz: three tankers turned back in 24h against Axios’ claimed 10 mb/d southern route​ – Axios, citing US officials: 10 million barrels a day – roughly half pre-war volume – are moving out of the strait via the Omani coastal route, and “the IRGC can be a nuisance, but they don’t control the strait. We do” (BrettErickson28, zerohedge).
    ​ The tracking data doesn’t support it. LVision_Trading mapped the Aug 17 satellite pass and found only 2 new STS pairs across Fujairah and Sohar, holding the count at 3.3 mb/d on a 7-day average.
    ​ Turnbacks are stacking: UAE-owned LPG tanker Yellow Stone pushed back by the IRGC Navy – the second failed transit in 24 hours (MenchOsint); Indian-registered Vaughan turned around overnight (MenchOsint); three China-owned tankers carrying or loading Iraqi crude stopped the day before (MenchOsint). Bloomberg tracked the Sea V and Hestia both U-turning (chigrl).​..
    ​..Iran: secondary sanctions on “any country” run into the country they can’t sanction​ – RnaudBertrand makes the sharpest structural point: “ANY country” won’t include China. In May the US tried to sanction Chinese refineries for buying Iranian oil; Beijing’s Commerce Ministry issued a formal prohibition order stating the sanctions “shall not be recognized, enforced, or complied with,” and Washington never meaningfully enforced. “ANY country” really means “any country we can actually coerce.”
    ​ JustDario puts it more bluntly: the “never seen before” sanctions to cripple Iran’s economy turn out to be tariffs on third countries, one year after the tariff programme’s own results.
    ​ Tehran’s escalation ladder: an Iranian MP argues the best answer is withdrawal from the NPT (MilitarySummary); the IRGC spokesman says warheads in a new war would be “completely different” from previous rounds (PressTV).​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-20

    ​ Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-19
    Two things actually moved: the UAE severed all trade, commercial and financial links with Iran after two ballistic missiles landed in the Gulf, and Trump ordered his envoys to stop talking to Tehran entirely – strategy formally shifted from “hammer” to “strangle”. Underneath that, the long end broke again (US 30Y ~5.33%, France at GFC highs, Japan 2Y at a 33-year high) and Asia went into freefall, with the KOSPI limit-down for the tenth time this year. Everything else – Hormuz transit counts, the diesel crack, the AI credit stack – is continuation, but all three continued in the same direction.​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-19

    Well, Duh… Media Accuses Hegseth Of Covering Up USS Lincoln Supply Crisis​ https://www.zerohedge.com/military/media-accuses-hegseth-covering-uss-lincoln-supply-crisis

    ​Sort-of, “Details at eleven”… “Economic D-Day”: Trump Announces “Most Crushing Economic Operation Ever” Against Iran https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uae-cuts-ties-iran-warns-gulf-states-against-helping-washington-kpler-says-us-navy

    #247867
    John Day
    Participant

    Bessent: Aim Is To ‘Collapse’ Iran Regime Through Economic Warfare, But US Unlikely To Restart Major Combat​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-fm-says-trumps-economic-d-day-threat-diversion-which-will-fail-new-carrier

    Futures Slide As Treasury Yields Surge, Erasing Bessent Intervention, Driven By Oil Spike​ https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-slide-treasury-yields-surge-erasing-bessent-intervention-driven-oil-spike

    “Doom Loop” Engaged: US Debt Hits $40 Trillion As Treasury Enters The Endgame​ https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doom-loop-engaged-us-debt-hits-40-trillion-america-enters-endgame

    ​ Yves Smith, Naked Capitalism, Iran War: Further Admission of Weakness With New Super Duper Trump Sanctions Threat; Israel Moves Against Turkiye Risk Broader Conflagration; Bessent at Odds with Fed in Move to Contain Longer-Dated Treasury Yields
    ​ To the Israel attack on Turkiye military operations in Syria. Douglas Macgregor provides excellent one-stop shopping in a new talk with Mario Nawfal. Recall that Macgregor is a serious military historian and has repeatedly admired the Turks as a nation with a strong martial tradition, and currently a very accomplished fighting force. Macgregor provides detail on how the Israel strike was essentially a warning shot, killing no Turkiye soldiers and perhaps not even damaging any assets. But Macgregor seems to believe that Turkiye has also not meaningfully bulked up at that base, as in Israel was trying to ward that off. Macgregor regards that as destined to fail.
    ​ Macgregor regards the Israel move as reckless, particularly now when Israel is clearly overextended. He also sees an escalation to direct confrontations as risking a much bigger regional war.
    ​ From a lightly edited machine transcript:
    So that much I think we can say when this first began, this sort of Turkish Israeli agreement that we crafted in order to promote the dissolution of Syria, in other words, its liquidation and then its resurrection subsequently in the hands of our friends from ISIS…
    ​ I said that at the time I thought it was the Middle East’s version of the Nazi Soviet pact in 1939, that it was a temporary cessation of hostilities. It would not last and inevitably there would be an Israeli Turkish war.
    ​ So I fully expect that that will occur at some point in the future.
    ​ This is an extraordinarily bad time for Israel to cultivate bad relations with the Turks because the Turks, despite all of the unkind things said by both sides, have continually transported oil from Azerbaijan through Turkey down past Syria and into Israel. The Turks have also sold billions of dollars worth of goods, especially agricultural products to the Israelis. So Erdogan had practiced what he does best, which is to talk out of both sides of his mouth…This has been a sore point, I think, with a lot of people in the in the Muslim world. Most Americans are completely unaware of it…
    ​ Since then, we’ve seen lots of cooperation between the Iranians and the Turks to deal with the Kurdish problem. And the Kurds, of course, not all of them, but a large portion of them are exceedingly dependent upon Israeli support, arms assistance, and intelligence. And indeed, we cooperated with Mossad in a vain hope of stirring up a Kurdish rebellion/invasion of Iran. The Iranians had them targeted, destroyed them, and I don’t see much evidence that that’s going to happen.
    ​And of course, the Turks had no interest in letting that be successful either….
    ​ It’s a very bad idea on the part of the Israelis because in the meantime you’ve had this new alignment Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and everybody has said well what’s it really about? Well contrary to popular belief it’s not about attacking Iran. I’m sorry it is not an anti-Iranian alliance.
    ​ It has a great deal to do with putting an end ultimately at some point in time to the Greater Israel project. They’re not going to allow that to succeed.​ https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/08/iran-war-further-admission-of-weakness-with-new-super-duper-trump-sanctions-threat-israel-moves-against-turkiye-risk-broader-conflagration-bessent-at-odds-with-fed-in-move-to-contain-longer-dated-t.html

    ​From Iran: Exclusive: Reports of Iranian missile attack on UAE unfounded; Zionist false flag imprint evident https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/08/18/774638/probe-rejects-claim-Iran-attack-UAE

    #247868
    John Day
    Participant

    Israel outsourcing coercion to settlers in occupied West Bank: UN’s Albanese​ https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/08/17/774508/Israel-outsourcing-coercion-settlers-West-Bank–UN%E2%80%99s-Albanese

    ​ Qusra is where Israel’s lies about settler violence hit a wall​ – This method of ethnic cleansing, whereby settlers establish an outpost, force the families out, and take over their property, has succeeded countless times across the West Bank. In Qusra, the news cycle noticed before it was too late.​ https://israelpalestinenews.org/qusra-is-where-israels-lies-about-settler-violence-hit-a-wall/

    ​ Three Palestinian families in the Jabal Ras al-Ain area of Qusra in the northern occupied West Bank have remained under siege by Israeli occupiers for 11 consecutive days, in the latest in a series of attacks targeting Palestinian residents and their land over the years.
    ​ Since Aug. 9, occupiers, under the protection of the Israeli army, have surrounded three homes housing around 13 Palestinians in the town south of Nablus governorate, obstructing the delivery of basic necessities.​ https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/collusion-between-israeli-army-occupiers-seeks-to-reshape-palestinian-reality/4032271

    ​ Aid workers under fire as drones reshape warfare​ – The UN is warning that aid workers face a deadly and evolving threat, with armed drones reshaping battlefields worldwide – putting humanitarian teams increasingly in the line of fire.​ https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168153

    Israel preparing execution wing for Palestinian prisoners, rights group warns​ https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/19/368616/

    #247869
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Is it almost time to have presidential elections and negotiate a capitulation to Russia? Simplicius, Ukraine’s Economy Braces for Disaster as Zelensky Faces New Political Challenge https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraines-economy-braces-for-disaster

    China is serious about Japan not having (their own) nukes, but I wonder about Russia. Andrew Korybko, The Chinese Ambassador To Russia Issued An Ominous Warning To Japan https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-chinese-ambassador-to-russia

    A coastal gas pipeline from Nigeria to Spain is planned. Andrew Korybko, The West African Pipeline Is Inherently Geopolitical https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-west-african-pipeline-is-inherently

    Hellish: Ceuta Mothers Weep In Streets; Rapes Force Women To Flee; Kids’ Parks Smeared In Shit​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hellish-ceuta-mothers-weep-streets-rapes-force-women-flee-kids-parks-smeared-shit

    Ceuta Cops Claim Invaders Are Dragging Girls Into Mountains For Gang-Rapes​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ceuta-cops-claim-invaders-are-dragging-girls-mountains-gang-rapes

    #247870
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ How Can This Be Real?​ The Home Office in the United Kingdom is now handing asylum seekers a nine-page booklet and posters spelling out that rape is illegal, sex with children is a crime, women are equal to men, and you cannot mutilate girls’ genitals.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-can-be-real

    ​ Caitlin Johnstone, Today In Dystopia: “We Have Cameras Everywhere In That Town”
    Today in dystopia, police have been wrongfully arresting people based on faulty information from AI-assisted Flock surveillance footage instead of actually investigating the evidence of the crime.
    ​ In an article titled “She Spent 7 Months in Legal Hell After Cops Used Flock Surveillance To Identify the Wrong Car,” Reason Magazine documents multiple instances of innocent people having their lives upended in legal battles because police slammed them with charges based on incorrect Flock camera data which could have easily been ruled out by some basic verification.​ https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/today-in-dystopia-we-have-cameras

    ​ The Orwellian Company Behind ICE’s New Electric Shock Gloves​ – “With a glove, there are no burn marks or scars.” That makes it hard for victims to sue.
    ​ “We have a saying: Feeling is believing,” Compliant Technologies CEO Jeff Niklaus said in one 2022 YouTube video. In promotional clips, you can see people losing control of their limbs, falling to the ground, and crying out in pain after a light touch from the GLOVE. In 2022, the company called it a “weapon” in Instagram posts. Since then, though, it’s downgraded the language to “a Conductive Distraction and De-escalation device,” branding the technology on its website as “humane.”
    ​ Human rights organizations like Amnesty International have long raised concerns about electric shock devices like the GLOVE, as well as other products that Compliant Technologies sells, like electric shock belts and vests, which the company recommends for prisoner transport, courtroom use, and use on “combative individuals” during medical procedures like blood draws.​ https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/08/ice-shock-gloves-torture-compliant-technologies-jeff-niklaus/

    ​ The gelatin in the shots can induce alpha-gal allergy: BREAKING: First-Ever Study Links Vaccines to the Explosion of Alpha-Gal Syndrome
    More than 90% of U.S. children are injected with alpha-gal-bearing mammalian gelatin before school entry, raising the possibility of direct sensitization or immune priming before a later tick bite.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-first-ever-study-links-vaccines

    ​ FDA Data Reanalysis Sent to HHS Finds Moderna’s mRNA Flu Shot Approval Should Be Immediately Withdrawn
    We directly reanalyzed the FDA’s own data used to approve mFLUSIVA and found an extreme risk-benefit profile that is impossible to justify.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-fda-data-reanalysis-sent

    #247871
    John Day
    Participant

    ​Jessica Rose Ph.D. (Please see top comment) What did Anthony Fauci mean when he wrote “GAME ON!!!”?​ Thoughts following meditation on this question https://jessicar.substack.com/p/what-did-anthony-fauci-mean-when

    “Misinformation” disputes government narratives: BMJ Retracts 2024 Excess Deaths Paper for the Sin of Spreading “Misinformation” https://www.soniaelijah.com/p/bmj-retracts-2024-excess-deaths-paper

    Sasha Latypova highlights an alternate form of “solving”: Whitney Webb: “Solving Racism by Vaccination?” https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/whitney-webb-solving-racism-by-vaccination

    John Leake, NIAID’s David Morens Pleads Guilty to Concealing Records of Coronavirus Gain-of-Function Research Grant – Like Al Capone going to jail for income tax evasion. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/niaids-david-morens-pleads-guilty

    John Leake, What Were Morens & His Co-Conspirators Doing? – Analyzing what Fauci’s senior advisor was trying to accomplish with Peter Daszak and Gerald Keusch https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/what-were-morens-and-his-co-conspirators

    #247872
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    #247875
    zerosum
    Participant

    $40 Trillion problem.
    **Short answer:** from copilot

    If you reject Trump’s approach to the U.S. fiscal and economic crisis (the ~$40 trillion long‑term debt trajectory), the *main alternative proposals* now on the table come from **bipartisan fiscal commissions**, **EU/CPTPP-led “third pole” economic governance**, and **traditional deficit‑reduction frameworks**. Each path has **major negative side effects** that differ from Trump’s tariff‑driven, protectionist, and unilateral strategy.

    Below is a structured, sourced breakdown.

    ## 🧭 1. What “$40 trillion problem” refers to
    The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed **$40 trillion** within a few years, driven by structural deficits, interest costs, Social Security/Medicare shortfalls, and post‑2020 fiscal expansions.
    This is not a Trump‑specific number; it’s the Congressional Budget Office’s long‑term trajectory.

    ## 🧨 2. If you don’t want Trump’s way — who is proposing another way?

    ### **A. Bipartisan Fiscal Commissions (Congress)**
    These are the most concrete alternatives. They aim to stabilize debt through negotiated spending cuts + revenue changes.

    Key proposals:
    – **Fiscal Commission Act** — 16‑member panel to stabilize debt-to-GDP by 2039. [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
    – **Sustainable Budget Act** — 18‑member panel to balance the budget over 10 years. [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
    – **Bipartisan Social Security Commission Act** — 13‑member panel to fix Social Security solvency. [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget]
    These are “shared sacrifice” approaches: spending cuts + tax reforms + entitlement adjustments.

    ### **B. The “Third Pole” Strategy (EU + CPTPP + aligned economies)**
    This is a **global alternative** to Trump’s unilateral economic nationalism.

    Chatham House proposes:
    – A **permanent alliance** of market‑oriented economies (EU + CPTPP + Brazil/South Africa/South Korea).
    – Designed to preserve open trade, energy security, climate cooperation, and monetary stability **without the U.S. or China**. [Chatham House]
    This is not a U.S. domestic fiscal fix, but it *is* a proposed alternative to Trump’s global economic posture.

    ### **C. Traditional “Orthodox” Fiscal Consolidation (Economists, think tanks)**
    This includes:
    – Raising taxes (corporate, high‑income, carbon taxes).
    – Cutting spending (defense, subsidies, entitlement reforms).
    – Slowing growth of Social Security/Medicare benefits.
    – Immigration expansion to increase workforce size.
    – Regulatory stability to encourage investment.

    This is the pre‑Trump consensus model.

    ## ⚠️ 3. Negative side effects of the alternatives

    ### **A. Bipartisan Fiscal Commissions**
    **Side effects:**
    – Cuts to Social Security/Medicare benefits (politically explosive).
    – Higher taxes on middle and upper income brackets.
    – Slower economic growth during consolidation.
    – Political gridlock: commissions often fail to pass recommendations.
    – Risk of recession if austerity is too aggressive.

    These commissions are “pain-sharing” models — everyone loses something.

    ### **B. “Third Pole” Global Governance**
    **Side effects:**
    – The U.S. becomes economically isolated from major trade blocs.
    – Reduced U.S. influence over global standards, energy security, and monetary stability.
    – Fragmentation of global supply chains.
    – Higher costs for U.S. consumers and exporters.
    – Increased geopolitical tension as blocs form without the U.S. or China.

    This is a *geopolitical* alternative, not a fiscal one — but it directly counters Trump’s approach.

    ### **C. Traditional Fiscal Consolidation**
    **Side effects:**
    – Tax hikes reduce disposable income.
    – Spending cuts reduce services and benefits.
    – Slower GDP growth in the short term.
    – Political backlash (voters punish austerity).
    – Risk of underinvestment in infrastructure, defense, and R&D.

    This is the “classic” alternative, but it’s politically fragile.

    ## 🧩 4. Why this is hard: Trump’s approach vs alternatives

    ### **Trump’s approach (simplified):**
    – Tariffs to raise revenue and protect domestic industry.
    – Aggressive trade leverage.
    – Reduced support for global public goods (climate, aid, monetary stability). [Chatham House](https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2026-06/2026-06-02-saving-global-economic-governance-butler.pdf)
    – Deregulation + energy expansion.
    – No entitlement reform.

    ### **Alternatives require:**
    – Tax increases (unpopular).
    – Benefit cuts (unpopular).
    – Multilateral cooperation (slow).
    – Long-term discipline (rare in U.S. politics).

    This is why many analysts say Trump has an “off-ramp” available but won’t take it — the alternatives require politically suicidal choices.

    ## 🧠 5. The real question:
    **Do you want a solution that is:**

    1. **Painful but cooperative** (commissions, orthodox fiscal consolidation)
    2. **Geopolitically multilateral** (EU/CPTPP “third pole”)
    3. **Nationalist and unilateral** (Trump’s approach)

    Each solves different parts of the $40T problem, and each has severe trade-offs.

    ## 🔍 Follow-up question for you
    **Which dimension of the $40T problem are you actually trying to solve — U.S. fiscal sustainability, global economic stability, or geopolitical risk?**

    Your answer will determine which alternative path is relevant.
    ————

    #247876
    zerosum
    Participant

    Q. Claude. Can you add to copilot’s answer. –

    A few things worth adding, since some of Copilot’s framing is already out of date and a couple of alternative paths got left out entirely.

    The $40T number just became real, not projected

    Copilot treats $40 trillion as a future milestone. It isn’t anymore — Treasury Department data released Wednesday showed the gross national debt reached just over $40 trillion as of August 18, and this comes firmly ahead of the CBO’s earlier baseline estimate, which had pegged 2027 as the likely crossing point. Worth noting why it arrived early: forecasters now say the debt hit $40 trillion months sooner than expected in part because of billions in lost revenue from Trump’s own tariffs being struck down by the courts.
    The Washington Post + 2

    That last point is a real gap in Copilot’s answer — it lists tariffs as part of “Trump’s approach” without mentioning that the centerpiece tariff program is currently dead. In February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs, striking down both the fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China and the broader “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly everyone else. That ruling erased roughly three-fourths of the new tariff revenue the administration was counting on — an estimated $1.4 trillion over 2026-2035. The administration has since been scrambling to rebuild tariff revenue through slower, more contestable authorities like Section 122 and Section 301, after revenue collections fell from a peak above $31 billion a month to roughly $22 billion. So “Trump’s approach” as Copilot describes it is already partially unwound — that’s a live, ongoing story, not a stable baseline to compare alternatives against.
    Tax Foundation + 2

    Where the debt is actually headed either way

    The debt is now growing by roughly $7-12 billion per day, having crossed $38 trillion in October 2025 and $39 trillion just seven months later. CBO’s 2026 outlook projects cumulative deficits of $23.1 trillion from 2026 to 2035, about $1.4 trillion more than it projected in January 2025. Debt-to-GDP is approaching 100% for the first time since WWII and is projected to reach 120% by 2036, then 175% by 2056. None of this is Trump-specific trajectory — it’s baked in regardless of who’s in the White House, which somewhat undercuts the framing that this is a “Trump’s approach vs. alternatives” question rather than a structural one.
    Fox Business + 2

    A concrete alternative Copilot skipped

    The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s own reaction to the $40T milestone lays out a specific, near-term ask that’s more actionable than “bipartisan commission” in the abstract: target a 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio, which CRFB says already has bipartisan support, and address the Social Security/Medicare trust funds through a bipartisan fiscal commission. That’s a real, numeric target politicians on both sides have nominally endorsed — worth naming instead of leaving the “commission” idea totally open-ended.
    Congress.gov

    Also worth flagging as a side effect Copilot didn’t mention: even the current congressional budget process is drifting the wrong way. CRFB estimates the House’s FY2027 budget resolution would actually add about $130 billion to the debt because of unfunded increases for military, intelligence, agriculture, and election administration — i.e., the “traditional” congressional path isn’t currently living up to its own consolidation rhetoric either.
    Congress.gov

    One more dynamic worth adding

    There’s a market-pressure angle Copilot left out entirely: rising bond yields are becoming a forcing function independent of any policy choice. Higher yields raise the government’s own borrowing costs, which is part of why crowding-out effects — heavier government borrowing pulling capital away from private investment — are becoming more visible just as tech companies are tapping capital markets to fund AI buildout, pushing rates up further. That’s a fourth “side effect” bucket beyond the three Copilot listed (commission pain, third-pole isolation, orthodox austerity pain): market discipline forcing a response before any deliberate policy choice gets made.
    Spectrum Local News

    If you want, I can pull the CRFB’s specific list of what a 3%-deficit target would require in spending/revenue terms — that’s the most concrete “alternative” on the table right now.

    #247877
    zerosum
    Participant

    Where will be the pain at 3% – If you want, I can pull the CRFB’s specific list of what a 3%-deficit target would require in spending/revenue terms — that’s the most concrete “alternative” on the table right now.

    Here’s the CRFB math, and where the pain actually lands.

    The topline number
    Getting to a 3% deficit-to-GDP target by 2036 requires about $10 trillion in ten-year deficit reduction — equivalent to cutting primary spending by 11%, or raising revenue by 12%, or some blend of the two. For scale, balancing the budget outright would take roughly $18.5 trillion — a 20% spending cut or 23% revenue increase — so 3% is explicitly the “politically survivable” version, not the aggressive one. Of that $10 trillion, about $8.5 trillion has to come from actual policy changes (spending cuts or new revenue); the rest is interest savings that accrue automatically once the debt path improves.
    Americans for Prosperity + 2

    Where CRFB says the first half comes from
    CRFB’s own sequencing: policymakers could get about halfway to the target just by “securing” the Social Security, Medicare, and Highway Trust Funds — i.e., closing their projected insolvency gaps — with the remaining distance covered by discretionary spending caps, health care reforms, new revenues, and cuts to tax breaks. That first half is the least optional part: it’s not a menu, it’s four trust funds hurtling toward legally mandated benefit cuts on their own within roughly six years absent action — Social Security’s trust fund faces depletion in about six years at current pace, which forces Congress’s hand regardless of any broader deficit target.

    The specific pain points, spelled out
    Mandatory spending — mostly Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid — along with interest payments, accounts for roughly three-quarters of all federal spending, and it runs on autopilot outside the normal budget process. That’s the structural reason there’s no way to hit 3% through discretionary belt-tightening alone (foreign aid, agency budgets, etc.) — those categories are too small a slice of the pie. CRFB is explicit that “everything needs to be on the table”: entitlement reforms, spending cuts, revenue increases, trust fund solutions, and health care savings all have to move together.

    Concretely, that menu means things like:

    Social Security — some combination of raising the payroll tax cap, adjusting the retirement age, or trimming the benefit formula for higher earners
    Medicare/Medicaid — provider payment reductions, means-testing, or slower benefit growth
    Revenue — closing tax breaks/loopholes rather than headline rate hikes, which is the version CRFB tends to favor as more durable
    Two complications specific to right now
    The tariff hole makes this harder, not easier. CRFB has been blunt that closing the gap requires not just replacing the tariff revenue lost to the Supreme Court ruling, but finding significant additional cuts or revenue on top of that — so the $10 trillion figure understates the current lift if tariff replacement efforts (Section 301, etc.) keep falling short.
    Congress is currently moving the wrong direction. As I mentioned last time, CRFB flagged that the House’s FY2027 budget resolution would add about $130 billion to the debt via unfunded increases for military, intelligence, agriculture, and election administration — the opposite of trust-fund securing. CRFB has separately warned against using the next reconciliation bill to enable more borrowing for defense spending or new tax cuts, which is reportedly under discussion.

    So the honest short version: the pain is concentrated in entitlements — that’s unavoidable given they’re three-quarters of the budget — with discretionary cuts and tax-break closures making up the rest. The nominally bipartisan part is real (Bessent and Trump-administration officials have publicly backed the 3% target, as did the Obama administration earlier) — but “supporting the target” and “supporting the entitlement reforms needed to hit it” are two very different levels of political commitment, and so far only the first has bipartisan buy-in.

    ———-

    #247878
    zerosum
    Participant

    As you just read, even AI agrees with at we know at TAE.
    Now, Canadians wait for the US Tariff/tax results

    • This reply was modified 3 weeks ago by zerosum.
Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 40 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.