Debt Rattle February 23 2020
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This obviously has huge implications. From the SCMP today:
Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again
The authorities in Wuhan on Saturday introduced 14 days’ mandatory quarantine for recovered coronavirus patients, after some discharged patients again tested positive…
In the southwestern city of Chengdu, a patient initially discharged on February 10, after meeting the standard for having recovered, was readmitted to hospital nine days later when they tested positive again during a check-up.
In another case in Changde, a city in Hunan province in central China, a woman tested positive on February 9, five days after she was released from quarantine at a local hospital having tested negative in two previous laboratory tests.
Meanwhile, in the southern city of Guangzhou, the coronavirus was found in stool samples from a small number of discharged patients, South Metropolitan Daily reported on Saturday.
Several thousand online accounts – previously identified for airing Russian-backed messages on major events such as the war in Syria, the Yellow Vest protests in France and Chile’s mass demonstrations – are posting “near identical” messages about the coronavirus.
(Pssst… Occams razor suggests that the simplest explanation is that all these rat-bastards are repeating the same or similar thing at about the same time because they just found out the truth… hush-hush, now…)I cannot find characteristic phases of the growth cycle , Growth Rate and Generation Time for virus?
this paper states that the doubling time is 6.4 days. if correct, roughly speaking, south korea, at 763 cases today, will hit 50,000 cases before the end of march. it follows that south korea will need to prepare to hospitalize ~10,000 patients.
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. <b>The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days</b> (95% CrI 5·8–7·1).
Think through “closed-cases” on our timeline of recent news.
Hospitalists say that patients in the hospital may improve or get dramatically worse around the end of the second week. Those that get worse live or die in the third week, so you are out to3-4 weeks from diagnosis and hospitalization before a case is “closed”. What were the diagnostic criteria 3-4 weeks ago? To whom were they applied? We are back to January criteria for even testing, and we know that those criteria were leaving a lot of people untested and un-admitted, and if they died somewhere else they were probably left out of the statistics. The closed-cases of today are mostly Chinese in Wuhan, sick and persistent enough to be tested at a swamped hospital, admitted and followed. About 20% of people seem to be sick enough to warrant admission, and they have a higher mortality rate each time they get sicker up the selection tree to full-life-support.
Considering all the selection steps needed to become a closed-case today, the difference between 2% mortality quoted, and 9% mortality in these closed-cases, looks a lot like selecting the sickest 20% of people to include in the group.
It’s really circuitous, but I think the math checks this way, too.Also, all those people being manipulated by Russia to transmit similar accounts at similar times, suggesting (exceptional) American doings with Wuhan coronavirus makes the most sense with one simple meme, which Occam’s Razor favors. .. It’s true.
America-the-deep-state has something like 10X the bioweapons budget of the next 3 kids on the block combined, as usual. Why not try it out a little when it would really come in handy? Blaming it on China is the flourish that makes it complete!@ kimyo99
@ John Day
Good. Thanks.Here is what I’m trying to “drill down” into.
A person picks up a single virus. Time goes by. The virus enters a cell. Time goes by. That cell die, the virus or multiple virus leaves and enters adjacent cells. Time goes by. Repeat Exponentially. I would expect that the body would eventually start showing signs of being infected.
The amount of time, (days), that goes by, before there are signs of infection, seems to be depended on may variables.
Are there studies for this phase? Before showing signs of infections (diagnosis).
As you noted, 3-4 weeks from diagnosis then cured or dead.
Also, after the infection no longer shows up in the tests and the symptoms are gone, Cured and released from hospital. The virus can re-start it multiplication cycle and re-appears with symptoms.I think it’s pretty obvious that 2019-nCoV is both out of control and impossible to control; those windows closed almost from the very beginning…
Also, a shout out to Ilargi, for his diligent reporting and distillation of the facts, as far as they can be known. And kudos to the other commenters as well.
The general news is a hopeless mishmash of conjecture, BS, and sensationalism…
I trust none of it…
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