Debt Rattle March 27 2020
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• More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know (BF) • We Could Watch Entire Populations Vanish (IC) • Coronavirus Could Kill
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle March 27 2020]It offends the human ego that nature is indifferent to us…
Indeed. But no longer; nature is fighting back; with a vengeance…
Boris Johnson tests positive. Maybe that’s what it takes.
I dunno; is that poetic justice? It sure should be…
“Africa. Pray.”
I absolutely agree with this.
The only countries that can afford a quarantine are countries that can invent money. When fiat money collapses, the people will be faced with same option that their ancestors faced. Accept the chance that you may catch the disease or accept that you may survive or die, or the certainty that your family will starve if you don’t work .
This was a no brainer for our ancestorsI know hindsight is 20-20 but even rudimentary risk assessment tells us that when the potential is low but the outcome is devastating you still have to account and insure against it. Every other President understood this even the ones without tRumps “great and unmatched wisdom” Instead tRump eliminated the office of pandemic- preparedness. How can anyone think he is doing a good job. I do not understand.
from the excellent article below this quote
“Partly, that’s because the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018. On January 28, Luciana Borio, who was part of that team, urged the government to “act now to prevent an American epidemic,” and specifically to work with the private sector to develop fast, easy diagnostic tests. But with the office shuttered, those warnings were published in The Wall Street Journal, rather than spoken into the president’s ear. Instead of springing into action, America sat idle.”@ lasttwo
“…America sat idle.” I don’t know, but sounds like broad distribution victim blaming. Obviously bad things don’t happen to a Chosen people. Most societies possess a promotional mythology for storytelling.
I do see one flaw in your logic. Even without the vaunted leadership from within the federal government’s office of pandemic preparedness, what was preventing the private sector, noteworthy for its indefatigable initiative and seminal brilliance, from carrying out the necessary work as a duty to the larger society from which it derives profit?
Let’s see if I can describe this properly: Commenter notes that the numbers we are seeing are 7 days in the rear view mirror. R0 notes that that we may have far more than 10x the number of untested or unsymptomatic cases. Let’s say NYC has 37,000. So if they’re doubling every 6 days that’s 75,000 x say 20x unknown/untested = 1.5 Million in NYC already have it. There are only 8.6M people in the city so we are 1/6th through.
Yet on the other side, the ICU/death cases, those are 100%. No one who needs the ICU waits 7 days just to keep the reported numbers in sync. So we are looking at ICU death numbers essentially 7 days ahead of the tested/reported numbers, and then never-reported, never-symptomatic which we know is wildly higher.
We have 280 NYC deaths. Per 1.5M people today’s estimated real infection. 0.018% death rate. If we are 1/6th through, 6 x 280 = 1,680 total deaths. Over say 3 months = 18.6 people/day. Normal death rate for NYC = 54,000. Even if those were all additional deaths — which is completely untrue, perhaps 80% would happen anyway because most people are over 70 and already have major underlying illness – that would add only 3%.
I can’t prove the exact numbers — and neither can they — but we can collectively agree, assume, and know this. So if I know this sitting in my parent’s basement, the WHO, CDC, Hopkins, Fauci DON’T know this? Oxford does. They published the study yesterday, which pretty sure BoJo, as head of state, read weeks ago. If he has the virus, why would he care? Virtually no one dies of it.
Would the Diamond Princess indicate this for anyone with passable math a month ago? 100% exposure among the 100% fatality group (over 60) and 11 dead of 2,670 passengers (assumes all crew are below 50) = 0.4% fatality among the only group who is at ANY measurable risk at all. Why do you think they locked them in and ran the test?
Look, I’m relatively weak at math as you know. But I did take competent math in grade school and retain it. I have a calculator function on my home computer. So do you.
You’re being conned. We’ve shut down a planet of 8 Billion for the deaths of one small town and you the people beg slavishly for open-ended martial law under Cheeto and give $6 Trillion leveraged 50:1 to the super-wealthy who will run that martial law and who are not subject to it, as always under Fascist, Socialist regimes. 4,400 Allies died on Normandy. Cuomo says he won’t let one death happen, not even for the sake of freedom, not for his country, not for any reason at all.
If only they showed such love when 30,000/year were being carried away, with all the morgues full and all the orphans left from only ONE cause during the 10 years of opioids in Kentucky and Arkansas. Can’t care/won’t care/didn’t care. But the death of ONE New Yorker! Why I say old chum! Math? Math says the life of a Coastal is now measurably 1,000x more important that the life of a Flyover. But we knew that for years. Sue Collins wrote a whole book on it.
If not a single person will risk themselves, will die for our principles of law, equality, and freedom who am I to say? Does any group who so cowers and begs and abandon their neighbors deserve better? We’re going to fight a war against a worldwide, invisible enemy and not lose a single man. If a single man is lost, or even risked, we’ll surrender all instantly, on the spot as we have a sub-0.4% chance of dying. Right? Sound good? Sign-up sheet is at the door. Let us all know which you choose, who you are.
At last, Bringing the troops home
• France, Czechs, & Other US Allies Exit Iraq Over COVID-19 Fears (ZH)
——“If not a single person will risk themselves, will die for our principles of law, equality, and freedom who am I to say? Does any group who so cowers and begs and abandon their neighbors deserve better? We’re going to fight a war against a worldwide, invisible enemy and not lose a single man. If a single man is lost, or even risked, we’ll surrender all instantly, on the spot as we have a sub-0.4% chance of dying. Right? Sound good? Sign-up sheet is at the door. Let us all know which you choose, who you are.”
Well said Dr.D, Your entire post. Never thought I would see the day that so many of my alternatively thinking friends would be so fearful and willing to give up everything.
I guess I understand the people in the Jim Jones cult better now. Isolate them, make them fearful, and saturate their lives with fear and they’ll do the unthinkable.
Be careful people. There is more than one Lori Vallow end end of world cults out there masquerading as spiritually enlightened. Scared people fall for the dardest things.#COVIDIOTS
The US seems a perfect place for the virus to advance.
Much has been made about the Spring Breakers, usually under the tagline of #COVIDIOTS, but are they?
At their age they are unlikely to suffer serious illness, and are more likely to become asymptomatic carriers. Those most at risk are the Baby Boomers. This is the generation which has sucked up most of the future wealth of the US and left the bill to the Spring Breaker generation.
It is in the [logical] interest of the youngest generation to spread the disease as widely as possible!
“At their age they are unlikely to suffer serious illness, and are more likely to become asymptomatic carriers. Those most at risk are the Baby Boomers. This is the generation which has sucked up most of the future wealth of the US and left the bill to the Spring Breaker generation.”
Sorry about your daddy issues. The mythical boomers have been over the hill for a long time. They don’t have power over you. Stop making excuses. Step up to the plate and be part of the solution.
Anyway, a generation is defined as anybody that has reached the age of reason at any point in time. That would include you.” France, Czechs, & Other US Allies Exit Iraq Over COVID-19 Fears ”
zero, that may not be the reason they’re considering leaving. Might be a different not so good mission
Dr D Rich not sure what you mean . I understand putting Pence in charge should have fixed it. His chosen one standing and all.. and alas the private sector did not step up.- not enough profit stockpiling masks when buying your own stock with virually free taxpayer money was paying so much better.
Cuts to the CDC, elimination of the pandemic preparedness office and putting unqualified people who ignore science in charge of science type things. Not insuring for high impact – low probability events is squarely a leadership responsiblity and in this case a leadership failure. It is a mistake any mediocre 1st year basic progect manager would not make. if the threat cannot be prevented contingencies should be in place to mitigate the damage. simple project management 101. This president cripppled the country by eliminating offices and departments that protected the american people for decades if not longer without understanding their function. the depression that will follow is on Trump. If it had not been the virus it would have been something else. His hatred for obama made him the bigger fool. imhoNeoh
I am a Baby Boomer with health issues and have been self-isolating for the past ten days. I own a 4-bed house on the edge of London, I have savings in 4 figures, and receive three pensions! Not something that most 20 year olds can look forward to. If I die that wealth will be distributed mainly to younger generations, and similarly with other Boomers.
I wrote the piece somewhat tongue in cheek but there is an element of truth in it.
You say the Boomers are over the hill, but they run America! The Presidential candidates and most of Congress are Boomers, and I would guess the Senate. Plus people like George Soros and other billionaires who manipulate the world for fun [and profit].
“Shame about granny, but the money will come in useful!”
New York 140000 people tested 44000 with the virus. 44/140 little in my head math about 30% x 20 million =
fill in your own disaster movie quote
your gonna need a bigger boat
Must go faster
Somewhere in the world the wrong pig met up with the wrong bat
“They start forming off the coast of Africa, as they’re moving across the Atlantic, we drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can’t we do that?” “I got it. I got it. Why don’t we nuke them?” — oops sorry that last one was not from a movie.Somebody here loves jazz as much as I do, right? Let’s compare this:
where Duke steals the show
with this:
Weather Report Rockin in Rhythm
where Wayne Shorter does likewise.
Blaming Boomers is hard to resist even if it’s not our fault any more than the G.I. Generation’s… and they fucked up a lot of shit too. We’re such a huge target and the worst did happen on our watch.
If we should blame any generation, it’s the bunch in charge during the 20s/30s. They overturned a plausibly viable Melting Pot urban culture and pout it on the path toward today’s suburban isolated lifestyle heavy on the gas and light on the kind of self-reliance farmers used to know. If anyone can find a copy, a short story by R.A. Lafferty called Interurban Queen expolains the dynamic uncannily well.
But blaming and shaming is for suckers. I should know: I suck.
Hi Ilargi,
I can tell you from Los Angeles that COVID-19 numbers published by the public health departments of Los Angeles County and Orange County are ridiculous.
I have been sitting at home this week recovering from COVID-19. I will be ready for work on Monday. I have the tell-tale signs of COVID-19. The illness comes in three stages. The first stage is an annoying head cold or diarrhea. The person gets over that and feels better. At day five the fever and body aches appear. At day nine the virus starts attacking the lungs. I am fine. My lungs are fine. I have no problems. I am fifty-one years old and in perfect health. However, I can tell you that while laying down with a fever I had the feeling that I was holding a tiger by the tail. It was clear to me that if my immune system lost containment of the virus, I would be in big trouble.
Today the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health’s Web Site posts that there are 1300 cases and 22 deaths. The deaths number is probably accurate, but the cases number is ridiculous. This virus is everywhere. There are twelve million people in Los Angeles County and Orange County. I would be surprised if less than a million people in Los Angles County and Orange County have the virus. I have no data to back up my wild-ass guess. The bottom line of my estimate is that the infection rate is orders of magnitude greater than the publicly published numbers and that the hospitalization rate and death rate are far lower than the publicly published numbers. My wild-ass guess is that when we finally crunch the numbers we will find out that the death rate will be under 0.1% and that the rate of infected people requiring medical attention of any sort will be under 1%.
I am not suggesting that the lockdown is overkill. I am not suggesting that the virus is not a killer for those who cannot handle it. I am just suggesting that the virus is far more widespread than the public health agencies are acknowledging and that for the vast majority of people the illness is far less dramatic than news reports would suggest.
“I wrote the piece somewhat tongue in cheek but there is an element of truth in it.”
Glad to hear that it’s tongue in cheek. I missed that. I’m also what some might describe as a boomer, although a somewhat despicable one in America’s flyover land. Yes we voted for Trump but we also voted for Obama at least once. So we are not racist. Obama was barely a boomer, at least as defined by his age. So the nation was fooled by younger blood also. That’s why I don’t like to sub-divide age groups and prefer to use the concept of everybody that is here at the time.
My children and grandchildren and most that they associate with do not blame the worlds, or the nations problems on any particular demographic. They are aware that the people that are currently’ in charge’ are there because of a culture of corporate “money talks”.
Under this arrangement, the successor of the boomers will be hand picked younger people, probably similar to Hunter.Dr. D your post brings a needed counterbalance and a sense of perspective. After 2 weeks of self isolation at home on my return trip from Argentina I decided to get out and visit my GP’s office with all the regular tests in hand that I run through down there on the free public health system and let him have a look. Total uneventful if not for the absence of patients. From there on it was a short hop over the bridge to Key Biscayne from Miami so I went to have lunch with a cousin working off his cabana and on to drop by unannounced to other friends’ home that were shooting the breeze in the back patio… and they backed off as if a leper with a bell breached their security perimeter! “What are you doing here?, you shouldn’t be here!” -well I just come out of Ocean Club and I figure I’d stop to say hello- “Ocean Club? there are 5 covid cases there, oh no blah blah blah”. I left feeling guilty and perturbed at the same time because of the obvious histeria and fear about somebody standing 10 feet away or more. Far from being cavalier about this pandemic I’ve been reading up on it extensively and early on, to the point of paranoia. It just so happens that I was moved to reposition my stance on this issue, giving priority to look into the health of my soul and then my body because in the end, in a long enough time line we all… unless you are American and believe death is optional…better self examine to be ready for the ultimate Panagra flight. And so I relaxed my fears and decided to go out the house. Yet, Doctors are dying, 9 yesterday in the Philippines, one near home today. Two Italian nurses checking out under unimaginable stress… Hard to keep a cool head. That’s why, thank you for your well thought out perspective, it gives us the chance to expand the limits of our options.
Here is a link to an analysis of statistical modelling coauthored by Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
Taleb is very correct in his assessment that the precautionary principle is the only viable approach. Which means you have to hedge for the worst, and only after that may there be other options.
What he doesn’t say clearly enough, I think, is that the ignorant politicians and their science advisers (who only know how to model), as well as the equally ignorant media, have been so late in reacting they should all be pink slipped. Imagine people would have paid attention to the Jan 25 piece he references, when it was published (it advised “moderate distancing”, immediately).
A report last week said if China had acted 3 weeks earlier 95% of its cases could have been prevented. That is true everywhere.
Communities are so scared of the virus that they are taking steps to find shelter and help for the street people, the most vulnerable.
Besides me, Who would have foreseen that coughing and spitting would be capable of making changes to our social/economic systems.
🙂
———
I went for a country drive.
I noticed, outside the city, that many RV owners have been relocating their RV from storage. I assume, to save expenses or to house a friend or relative who lost their job. The RV with sliders that are open look occupied. I saw 4 RV setup on forestry road. (Rent free camping)
I feel that things are different and things are changing. It wasn’t just because or reduced traffic.Breaking news
Employers,in Canada and USA, are going to receive fed money for wages, if they keep their workers hired, and producing more inventory that will not be sold.
What could go wrong?!!!Ya gotta pay attention to Dr. D and his knowledge of probability and statistics applied to medicine.
So what about 100,000.
Here’s the 2018-19 Flu season data:
*** symptomatic illness – 35,520,883
***medical visits- 16,520,350
***hospitalizations- 490,561
***deaths- 34,157In the 2017-18 Flu season the numbers were 30% to 75% higher in each category.
There was no drama back then, just one and two years ago, except they closed the ER and inpatient wards to additional admissions. And none of those hospital administrators CEO, general counsel, one RN, one finance officer and 2 MDs all making $550,000 to $1.2 million per annum prepared the medical center for this future and comparatively minor disaster.
I already related my personal (medicine calls it anecdotal) experience with medical center closure to admissions and a respiratory illness cluster in my clinic during a concurrent major hospital demolition, renovation and $75 million dollar construction project.
That situation has yet to be investigated for potential causes such influenza virus, RSV respiratory synctitial virus, aspergillus released from demolition or a pneumoconiosis from non-biological material released from demolition.
“The horrific scale of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is hard to fathom. The virus infected 500 million people worldwide and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims— that’s more than all of the soldiers and civilians killed during World War I combined.
“While the global pandemic lasted for two years, the vast majority of deaths were packed into three especially cruel months in the fall of 1918. Historians now believe that the fatal severity of the Spanish flu’s “second wave” was caused by a mutated virus spread by wartime troop movements.”
from this article by The HIstory Channel
Seeing as how it’s not about Hitler or WWII, should we trust it?
the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic
I don\t know why
….. my grand father lived ….. My father lived …. and I don’t know why ….. I’m still here.
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Only the essential are working.
Too many have been proven to be non-essential ????https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/essential-services-bc-covid-1.5511040
B.C. defines essential services in fight against COVID-19Here’s a breakdown of services deemed essential in B.C.:
( I dare you to look to see if you are part of the essential/needed)If Dr D’s assumptions and math are correct, then Bolsonaro will turn out to be the most enlightened Head of State on the planet. Stay tuned.
It won’t be long before they ramp up the blood serum tests that will make it possible to evaluate how many people became infected, never developed symptoms, and now have antibodies. That will be the only way to test the theory that vast numbers of people have already been infected and developed immunity so this is no big deal after all. But only a week ago the “get back to work” crowd was arguing that 93% of people who were being tested were negative. So it seems like wishful thinking to me. But let us see when we have the data.
For now, I look at the air pollution data in Wuhan still showing clean air, I see the police riots on the bridge at zero hedge, I hear about stacked up urns evidencing a much higher death rate than the Chinese authorities reported, I see the lines outside the Chinese hospitals, and I think is serious on a macro scale. China would not have shut down its economy if it was no big deal. But let us wait and see. Six weeks ago I took a screenshot of the official numbers on my phone. On February 16 Korea had 29 cases. Italy had 3 cases. The US had 15 cases. The UK had 9 cases. Much has changed in six weeks. So let us see where we are in another six weeks.
In our family, some good news.
Whatever kind of flu my wife had she seems to be recovering and no longer has a fever. She was the one we were most worried about especially her lungs.
What my daughter and wife had is the weirdest flu I have ever seen! To me the flu hits you right between the eyes! You know you have been hit! Then it backs up just to make sure you have been it hard enough!
Tonight I was texting with my brother who works for GM in engineering in Detroit.
First we discussed making face masks.
Both GM & Ford are making masks. The fabric used to make masks is only made in China and they are not allowing any fabric to be exported. So what they are doing is having a US auto supplier in South Carolina that makes auto sound deaden material tweak their machinery to reduce their density from 75% to 25%. This will allow this supplier to produce 1 million square yards of the same spun polypropylene fabric used to make the fabric used in face masks!
The supplier is supposedly tweaking their machinery this weekend! One million square yards of needed face mask fabric will be available by this coming Friday! So that is very good news for Americans!
Then we talked about GM making ventilators. My brother spoke directly to a production engineer involved in this project.
GM in the last 2 to 3 weeks has sourced the over 700 parts needed to produce ventilators. Production will start in Kokomo, Indiana this coming week with a planned capacity of 1,000 ventilators per day! This ventilator production is being done by what used to be known as Delco Electronics, GM’s radio supplier. Again more good news for Americans!
The big difference that I see between the US and Canada, is that private companies are being used to quickly ramp up needed medical supplies. In Ontario, the public health service is resisting the use of private companies! Therefore we are experiencing huge bottlenecks every step of the way!
From what I have seen NYS can test more people per day than all of Canada put together! P.S. Ironically NYS greater testing ability seems to be causing a mass flood of NYers to flee the state! To states with less testing!
CV-19 may well bust the U.S. military overseas…
CV-19 is changing everything in ways we never imagined…
Welcome to a brand new world; which we are in no way prepared to deal with…
Stay lose and don’t let the bastards get you…WES: very pleased about your wife.
I keep my eyes open for positive synergies like you report in GM etc. The darker the clouds, the more silver the linings. The good thing about things like this pandemic is that they force positive action from things like, for exampole*, panicked herd pressure.
*I like that typo. Doctor: ‘This is an exam pole. You may feel a little discomfort at first.’
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