Greenpa
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Dow down 1,000 in first half hour. I’m watching the ticker feed- it’s going to be interesting.
And Greenland just cracked off a 12 sq. kilometer chunk of ice…
The promptness with which the changes are happening in Greek politics suggests to me that they may be – scripted. Thought out, planned – by the smart people looking for change.
Electoral processes are usually scripted; by the Owners, from a distance. It’s possible these counter-Owners have intelligently seen through the process- written their own scripts, and taken the Greek Oligarchs a bit by surprise. Internal squabbles? Easily scripted, and with vast benefits to the Greek people – the can keeps going down the road.
Schisms? Tear it apart; negotiate, put it back – the people are entertained and become more committed, and the actual agreements with the Owners – postponed.
I admire them – and don’t remotely give credence to the journalistic froth. Let’s see what HAPPENS – next year.
Chris M – thanks. And thanks for the introduction to Capanella; I was not familiar with his saga. I found it fascinating that I have long been an admirer of a near contemporary of his; Torquato Tasso. For similar reasons, Tasso wound up thrown into a madhouse, Capanella into prison. It’s a risky business, writing about the plebeians and the patricians… particularly when you illuminate the one to the other- both eventually really resent it, as Socrates learned. 🙂
Rapier- I would also like to hear Ilargi’s ideas here. I think the answer lies in this article; by a professor from Athens: “All reforms will be put on hold for about six weeks”. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34020627
Tsipras has managed – regardless of what journalists say about cause and effect – to keep the can rolling down the street; which means banks open, wheels turning, Greeks just a tad less desperate. Either he’s an idiot – or he, Varoufakis, and their friends – are very, very smart. I’d go with smart.
Incidentally, I’ve played this market prediction game with myself multiple times- and my accuracy record is – lousy! So far! 🙂
“The sinking could damage aqueducts, bridges, roads and dams”
As usual, it’s worse than that. When the land sinks; it means cavities in the rock/sand/clay/etc. below have collapsed. That land will NEVER hold and store water in the same way again. Not just in your lifetime – in geological time. The damage is permanent.
It’s not just 10 feet of water capacity that has been destroyed, the ability of water to flow in and out of the aquifer has been drastically altered; the aquifer cannot charge, or discharge in the same way; ever again.
There is nothing that could convince me to move my family to California.
“The United States suffers from obvious deficiencies in roads, rails, water systems and more”
Very true, but as the son of a professor of Civil Engineering, who was also a professional engineer and oversaw the construction of several bits of infrastructure that around 80% of TAE readers have actually used- and who ranted at the dinner table – I can tell you that:
The quality of infrastructure projects NOW – is drastically lower, and less predictable, than it was in the 40s and 60s. Because? Corruption in the construction industry has had time to become better established and organized. Before the big dams, the interstate system, etc., corrupt practices were smaller, less profitable, and unorganized. Now- if you’re building a highway anywhere in the US – count on the fact that materials you order WILL be of lower quality than specified – etc, etc. Policing on the job is nearly non-existent, corrupt inspectors being the rule, not the exception, in many regions. Roads are designed to deteriorate (faster and faster, it seem, doesn’t it?) – to ensure the construction company will have another big job soon.
So; from Krugman’s view – government may have been getting what it paid for, years ago; but it’s far from certain government debts of that kind will actually yield benefits today.
“A big one. But not THE big one.” Totally agree. A slightly different trend from two months ago.
In real “Science” – the ultimate test of any hypothesis is to generate predictions for future behavior. If your predictions are accurate; this is the best “proof” you can have (though still never absolute). If, like 99.9% of academic Economists, your predictions are lousy – that’s really a proof that your working theories are also flawed.
We, here, should all entertain ourselves by predicting what the markets will do next week! Granted, instantly, that predicting what market indices will do in a short run is not truly connected to any real world changes in resources – it’s fun to see if we’re even vaguely comprehending what the Owners are up to.
My personal guess – which I will limit tightly: the Dow, on Monday, will start the day moving down again; but will finish the day up- from the Monday opening. The rest of the week will be upsies and downsies – and the week will finish up – somewhere around 300 points from Monday’s opening. ± 200; but up.
Entertainment. 🙂
Rapier: “it is possibly a mistake to read too much into it” – I totally agree. This “market” is not the stock market of 50 years ago. But there are many minds in the general buzz that will shift emotionally; and a purely emotional crash is still possible, I think.
Yep; did it; Dow negative for the year; S&P and Nasdaq still positive; but barely- market not closed yet; but that’s a powerful emotional down.
Yippeeskippy – the Dow is presently down ~400 today; and we’re just about to hit the point where all gains in the past year are wiped out.
Emotional responses from “investors” likely to be running pretty high – pushing towards positive feedback… on the down side…
“Past point of no return.” Yes, we very clearly are.
I find the “humans are superpredators!” paper, and resulting news buzz, deeply, deeply depressing. This viewpoint – has LONG been obvious and accepted in all disciplines of biology and anthropology. Everybody already knew this- but this kind of buzzy “science” is now very common- and a deep indication that “Science”, as a process and entity, is very, very ill; like the planet. The study was an utter waste of resources, as far as adding to the knowledge of our species; and rigorous scientific processes should have prevented it ever being undertaken, let alone published, let alone sent out as “news”. Exactly equivalent: “What!! You’ve got a theory that the sun comes up in the EAST – and will probably continue to do so?? At > 96%? Amazing! Let’s get a grant, and publish!!”
Beyond dismal – it’s deadly. The process our species most relies on currently; increasing valid knowledge – is badly damaged, and getting worse fast- and has no visible ability to heal.
The electric locomotive reminded me of a random brain jog the other day – I’m wondering why the phrase “Greek third bailout” is not more commonly transmogrified into “Greek third rail…” in? hit? touch? event? disaster? – lots of modifiers would sort of work, for amusement and truth-telling purposes.
For those not familiar with American slang, “touching the third rail” is slang for instant death; particularly political. In many electric rail systems, there is a “third rail” – which is the primary carrier of the current that powers the locomotive; touching it in any way that allows current flow will electrocute you instantly. Third rail is also a figurative way to express the presence of an extreme danger, with no safety features.
John- believe me, I thought of that. Unfortunately, I can also think of many ways the traffickers could counter it- and I know they have experience in doing just that. Truly, I could list 10 – but I don’t want to give anyone ideas. Do we know it’s happening? No. Not happening? No. Likely to happen? Yes. Likely to go without being noticed by “police” for a long time? Yes.
“The dead migrants were discovered last weekend, packed into a fishing boat also carrying 312 others trying to cross the Mediterranean…”
A very, very ugly thought for you. If you were a “trafficker” – it being your family business – why would you bother attempting to actually deliver the humans in the hold to the destination they have already paid for? It would be far less risky, and far more profitable – to simply close the hatches, suffocate them, and dump them in the open ocean. Take the boat back, to a different port – and refill.
Give me a reason to think this is not already going on.
“Europe is in desperate need of leadership on the issue, but there ain’t none.”
No, nor will there be. The mass movements of humans from impoverished and dangerous regions into flourishing and safe areas is a purely biological phenomenon, is not, and will not ever be – dealt with as a “moral” problem, with moral solutions.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for a messiah to appear, waive his/her wand and say “ok, now you can all get along, equally and cheerfully!” The False Messiahs claiming they can are already here, and gaining power.
People will do anything to give their children a chance to survive. Anything. And people will do anything to keep the resources they have for their children. “Civilizations”, and “cultures” do not and can not operate in this arena when any population hits the “utterly desperate” mark on their survival expectations.
“Since the start of the crisis in 2009, the Greek government has reduced defense expenditures by 54 percent, to €4 billion last year. Greek officials offered €200 million more in defense cuts in talks with creditors, who responded with a demand for a €400 million cut. But Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ €200 million proposal caused a rift with his nationalist coalition partner, the Independent Greeks party. Defense Minister Panos Kammenos threatened to leave the coalition over it. ”
Looks like pure opportunity to me. Mr. Tsipras – just call the generals all in; tell them “We’re going to clean out the oligarchs – and you get to keep half.” Time tested, and as honorable as it gets. (not very, but no one ever looks.)
(I foolishly first wrote “generals”; but that’s idiotic. It’s Lt. Colonels and and Majors. The Generals are almost always part of the oligarchy. Duh.)
“Not to send you into a meltdown or anything but octopuses are basically ‘aliens’ – according to scientists”
I actually TAUGHT that, around 1972; in the graduate level “Invertebrate Biology” classes. I was the TA – but I not only taught the labs, I designed them. I had the class do detailed dissection of the squid. You can reach the “alien” conclusion from the morphology and physiology, without needing direct DNA readings.
They are just utterly unlike anything from the vertebrate lineage (which includes worms…). The stuff inside does not do the same things, isn’t connected in the same ways, isn’t in the same places, doesn’t flow the same ways- you have to have a detailed idea of how vertebrates and worms work in the first place, in order to appreciate how completely different cephalopods are.
They could be from another planet. Or; less noisily; they could be one of the very best examples in existence of the astonishing flexibility of basic DNA processes.
“I wrote ‘tidal wave’ 36 hours ago for an upcoming artile. Need to find a new metaphor now.”
Suggestions: “continental rift slip” “tectontic plate subsidence”
or just going with tsunami would put you ahead-
The link to the Greek military article seems broken.
And it certainly is interesting information. Missing was “who controls the Greek military” – that’s the important bit.
An interesting attempt to stave off endings; it is now more profitable for China to build cotton mills – in the US, and hire desperate poor people to work there, than to operate in China.
Won’t solve anything; but it keeps the kicked can going just a tad more-
Greek manufacturing. Exactly WHAT is it they are manufacturing?
Seems kind of critical to comprehending, to me.
For some reason, the following quote from an article on the Japanese Public Television internet news feed today – cracked me up.
“About 80 students from countries in Asia have begun a 3-week summer camp at a Chinese university to study and discuss global issues. The event aims to foster future leaders.
“The camp started at a university in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, on Monday. The participants include Japanese, South Koreans and Indians studying in China, as well as Chinese studying in Japan.
“On the opening day, they attended a lecture by a major US financial group executive.”
Ah, Business! As usual. And that bit – is 100% of the “News From Asia” category today!
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20150803_24.html“Even the NYT wakes up to reality.”
I’ve read, watched closely, for years. My belief; they do allow liberal writers to zing in a bit to accuracy, now and then – but – next week they will publish an “Editorial”, by their Editorial Board; which will not mention the zinger, but will instead come out with full-force full weight straight Owners opinion. In the Opinion Section; but delivered as Received Truth.
And the liberal writer in question WILL, next week; deliver a new piece on a different topic – reflecting the Owners. Count on it. Next year, the writer will be allowed to slip another liberal opinion in.
“How can you say we’re biased! Look what we allow published, and who our writers are!”
I think both Tsipras and Varoufakis have been and continue to walk on the most dangerous tight-wires on the planet. I am in awe.
“Something tells me the Greeks will come out of this in good shape.”
Well. According to my concept of western history (which is VERY sketchy) – they didn’t do so well when Big Al croaked, and the whole thing fell apart. At least according to the Romans, around 200 BC, all of Greece was collapsed, and collapsing further; no jobs, population dropping, to the point where Greeks were selling themselves into slavery, to Romans, out of sheer boredom; and probably some hunger.
Of course it’s pretty hard to tell which bits of official history were just made up. For some ulterior motive, or out of sheer boredom.
Oh, c’mob; Life Continues.
https://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20150730-ten-films-to-watch-in-august
And the popcorn is buttered with baby orangutan fat, like always. Get real!
Here is exactly the kind of thing that can mushroom, based on rumor and a little reality; into huge and spreading- and economy killing – catastrophe. Like; tonight.
The Owners lose a cash cow? Boston mayor refuses to make taxpayers liable for Olympic cost overruns… so the Games are outta there. How about that? That was such easy money, too.
The “migrants” are of course climate change refugees. And it is going to get much, much worse; beyond anything in our history.
Razor wire makers would be a good place to invest. A whole lot of countries are already saying de facto: “we can’t take any more.” Very shortly, that will become announced policy. “Sorry, but no.”
And seriously; can you have 1/2 the population of South Sudan move in to Spain this year? This kind of thing is flat not possible.
The reality is going to be a lot more death. Orders of magnitude.
John: “We can cruise along for a long time without affecting a larger group, but that doesn’t mean we are not building the foundation for a paradigm shift.”
That’s the hope, fools that we are. But! This time; I have comfort to offer. I have a little blog, you know; very active a few years back; and I check my statistics from time to time. I wrote this – mathematical explanation for why “measured climate changes are worse than expected” – and got very, very little response to it. Except – my statistics tell me it is one of the all time most viewed posts- the readers are just – silent. But they seek it out; and read.
https://littlebloginthebigwoods.blogspot.com/2007/04/not-refrigerators.html
“Alexis Tsipras was forced to submit to a deal that punished his government’s insolence, so the argument goes,…”
While public proof is lacking; I submit there is abundant historical “suggestion” – because this application of power is specifically secret, and will stay that way – that when Syriza hit them hard enough, several of the Owners took him aside, and revealed his certain future; just as (almost certainly) happened to Barack Obama at some stage in his journey.
“We will kill you. We’ve done it before; don’t doubt it. We will not only kill you, we will kill your parents; your brother, your sister, your grandparents, your wife, your children, your childhood friends. This is a certainty.
“To kill very secretly costs us about €1M per kill. If you mess up our arrangements, we’ll lose at least €400 billion. Can you add?
“Or. You can play ball. Which would you prefer? Would you like a demonstration? Pick one. They will die today; in an accident. Or we can pick one.”
Evidence? Zero. Except – these people stay in power, invisibly. And who is going to talk? And – what would YOU do?
Incidentally, if I’m killed in an accident in the next couple years; you’ll know why. Or my family.
Nichole (I miss Stoneleigh 🙂 ) and Ilargi – an excellent example of our nearly certain future:
We can see the critical infrastructure falling apart. We aren’t doing anything substantive about it; and we aren’t going to. When a full Amtrak train is completely wrecked with hundreds of deaths – billions will be appropriated; and all but pennies will be stolen; guaranteed. And our civilization will dribble away.
The alternative future: we will pronounce Marco Rubio dictator. He will fix one rail system, and die without an heir; and our civilization will end in cannibalistic feudalism.
We see it. Options to avoid it – seem to be lacking.
Ilargi- I have been present multiple times in my life at events where something drastically wrong was being perpetrated – and there was a crowd of people present who really might have altered the outcome, if only they had “stood up and done the right thing.”
Several times, I have stood up, and spoken, and acted, and tried to convince others. Not once have I been successful. (On 3rd thought, I take that back; once I was – because the cause was so blatant, and “standing up” really required nothing of the others.) Not a lack of my ability to lead (probably); I’ve done that plenty elsewhere; it was a broad lack of what I would have to call moral spine. They had none.
If you look at major world changes where crowds of people HAVE stood up for the right- it has always (so far as I can see) been the result of years and years of dedicated individuals continuing to push; women’s suffrage being a good example.
The crowd, as far as I can tell, is around 5% likely to back your pleas; about 20% likely to attack you after any plea, and 75% likely to just stand and watch. Count on it.
I would guess most folks here know this; but just in case: one of the causes of Owners pulling money from various commodity markets is that not only have they not been making money there, they do not believe those directions are going to make money again anytime soon. So; they’re taking their money out; and re-investing it.
Where? Iowa. Illinois. Etc. Farm land. They’re buying it as fast as they can; and driving land prices up far beyond the ability of traditional family farmers, or young folks wanting to start, to pay. There are now, of course, “investment services” corporations that will cheerfully find your farm land for you, and farm land funds where you can buy shares. They now compete against each other, driving prices up farther, faster.
Very very bad stuff; tons of historical precedents back to antiquity, and it never ends well.
Nicole; yup. It’s a long process all right. I was approached to write a book about Topic A; thought hard about it for a year and ended up telling the publisher “I can’t; takes too long…” They came back with “Well – how about a book on just one aspect?” Still took a year to write; but… it was probably worth it. I think. 🙂
I’ll see your Verdammtstadt, and raise you a gaggle of UK scum:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-33625470
They even show you lucidly what a scum sucking grin looks like. These vermin are cutting solar and wind subsidies without review – so they can spend the money on brand new nukes; built in the UK by their historical buddy, France. Which design, incidentally – France may be forced to abandon in France: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33469774
Yes of course they’re on the payroll – or their brother in law is…
Greece needs to produce its own insulin; as soon as it can. Something I’ve thought a good deal about, re collapse; I have a child with Type 1. It used to be produced from slaughtered pigs, primarily; and it could be again, fairly quickly. That kind is not as effective/good as the standard now, human insulin from genetically engineered E. coli. That could also be done, again, entirely in Greece, and screw the patents.
Book.
You know I just cranked one out, Nicole; and a grand trauma it was. But. Needed doing, and reception has been startlingly good so far. AND – incidentally; my book can be traced back to connecting with you, right here. Long chain but – quite true.
You’ll reach more with the book. One of the reasons I undertook the horror was talking at a large Permaculture thing- the kids were buying any book you’d wave at them; they’re starving.
