Aug 132025
 
 August 13, 2025  Posted by at 9:52 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  46 Responses »


Joseph Mallord William Turner The Fifth Plague of Egypt 1800

 

Trump and Putin To Meet In Anchorage – White House (RT)
White House Teases Trump Visit To Russia (RT)
All The Critics of Alaska Summit Are Wrong (Amar)
Russia ‘Has Won The War’ – Orban (RT)
‘Biden’s Mistakes Need To Be Corrected’ – Putin Envoy (RT)
Zelensky Refuses To Leave Donbass (RT)
Merz Organizes Emergency EU Summit to Strategize How to Keep War Going (CTH)
Europe Rapidly ‘Building For War’ – FT (RT)
Cracks Appear In NATO Unity Ahead Of Alaska Summit (ZH)
The Bear and the Eagle Face-Off in Alaska (Pepe Escobar)
Kiev Planning False-Flag Attack Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit – MOD (RT)
War’s Final Act: Zelensky’s Dangerous Play To Crash Russia-US Talks (Romanenko)
Putin’s Master-Move: BRICS Has Become the World’s New Control Room (Sp.)
Whistleblower: Russiagate a Schiff-Approved Smear from the Start (Margolis)
EU Spent Millions to ‘Prove’ That Islam ‘Belongs’ in Europe (Ibrahim)
US Attorney Jeanine Pirro: System Coddles Violent Young Criminals (Margolis)

 

 

Nice guy

Schiff
https://twitter.com/Real_RobN/status/1955109934212980776

Le Pen
https://twitter.com/Inevitablewest/status/1954919094635118847
https://twitter.com/Inevitablewest/status/1955243219039522931

Police
https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1954985421173297298

 

 

 

 

We will see 1,001 articles on the Anchorage meeting even before it takes place. While it’s all so simple: Ukraine lost, so NATO lost, so EU lost and US lost. Trump doesn’t mind that last bit so much, because he can say: it’s not me, it’s Biden who lost…

NATO and EU will go to great lenghts to avoid peace. If that doesn’t wake people up, what will? There’s a video call later today between EU leaders and Trump. Oh, and Zelensky…

Message: you can’t let Putin win. Or he will invade all of Europe. They have actually convinced themselves, and anyone who listens, of that. Except Trump. Europeans truly depend on Trump for all that is good in their lives… How sad is that?

 

 

I looked up Michelle Shocked’s wonderful song by that name (..anchored down in Anchorage..), but she’s apparently banned it from all platforms. A shame.

Trump and Putin To Meet In Anchorage – White House (RT)

The city of Anchorage, Alaska will host Friday’s summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, according to the White House. Trump earlier announced that the meeting would be held in the biggest US state, but the exact location remained unknown until now. “Many sites” were discussed as potential hosting venues for the meeting, according to White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. Trump is “very honored” that a US state was eventually chosen as the meeting place and he “looks forward hosting President Putin on American soil,” she told journalists during a briefing in Washington. The schedule for Friday is still being “ironed out,” Leavitt said.

She added that the US is working closely with Russia on the issue. Earlier on Tuesday, Moscow revealed that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone to discuss “some aspects” of the upcoming summit, but did not provide any details about their conversation. The White House spokeswoman also did not rule out a possible visit by Trump to Russia at some point in the future. “Perhaps, there are plans in the future to travel Russia,” she said when asked about the president’s intentions. Speaking about Trump’s expectations for the summit, Leavitt said that the goal of the meeting “is to walk away with a better understanding of how we can end” the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. According to the spokeswoman, Trump “is agreeing to this meeting at the request of President Putin” delivered through special envoy Steve Witkoff.

The meeting comes following three-hour talks between Putin and Witkoff in Moscow last week. Trump also hopes to arrange a trilateral meeting involving both Putin and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, according to Leavitt. Zelensky and assorted Western European leaders and EU officials issued a statement previously, maintaining that no decision on resolving the conflict should be made without Kiev’s input.The Russian president has said he has “nothing in principle” against meeting with Zelensky, but maintained that “certain conditions must be created” for it to take place. Moscow has repeatedly accused the Ukrainian leader of being in denial and unnecessarily prolonging a conflict he cannot win. The Kremlin has also cast doubt on Zelensky’s ability to sign binding treaties, since his presidential term expired last year but he has refused to hold new elections, citing martial law.

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“It’s possible that there are plans to travel to Russia in the future.”

White House Teases Trump Visit To Russia (RT)

US President Donald Trump could visit Russia in the future, the White House has said. Trump is set to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin this week. The two leaders are scheduled to hold talks in the US state of Alaska on August 15, with discussions expected to focus on resolving the Ukraine conflict and strengthening bilateral ties. Asked by reporters on Tuesday if Trump planned to visit Russia, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “It’s possible that there are plans to travel to Russia in the future.” Moscow previously stated that it expects the two leaders’ next meeting following Alaska to take place in Russia. Trump has officially been sent an invitation, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said last week.

The US leader said on Monday he plans to organize the next top-level talks on the Ukraine conflict, aiming to bring Putin and Vladimir Zelensky to the same table. He also confirmed that Zelensky has not been invited to his meeting with Putin on Friday. Moscow has long accused Zelensky of being in denial and unnecessarily prolonging a conflict he cannot win. The Russian president has said he has “nothing in principle” against meeting with Zelensky, but maintains that “certain conditions must be created” for it to take place. Putin has also cast doubt on Zelensky’s legal capacity to sign binding agreements, as the Ukrainian leader’s presidential term expired last year and he has refused to hold a new election, citing martial law. This has prompted Moscow to declare him “illegitimate.”

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“.. firstly, the West permitting Kiev to sabotage the 2015 Minsk II Agreement, then the stonewalling of Moscow’s last-chance negotiation offer of late 2021, and finally the West’s nixing of an almost-peace in April 2022..”

All The Critics of Alaska Summit Are Wrong (Amar)

The problem with the future is that it is both unpredictable and inescapable. You can never know with certainty what tomorrow will bring, but you must prepare for it nonetheless. This may seem trivial. And yet it remains a great challenge. Consider, for instance, current international reactions to the scheduled summit between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US president Donald Trump. The announcement of the meeting, later specified to take place in Alaska on 15 August, was a surprise. But then again, not really. Viewed against the background of Trump’s longstanding signaling of respect for Russia, as well as an interest in normalizing the relationship between Moscow and Washington, it was actually the culmination of a sometimes messy but real trend.

But within the short-term context of a recent American turn against Russia, it was yet another proof that Trump can be hard to predict – trends can tell you only so much. While some observers believed the latest American zig to be the last, others – full disclosure: this one included – argued (and, frankly, hoped) that another zag was possible. And here we are. It is true that RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan dares not predict the summit’s outcome or even whether it will really take place. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has warned that we are still far from a new détente. Yet there is no denying that, at least for now, we are not where we were during the preceding Biden administration either. Namely, in a hopeless dead end of an escalating yet failing Western proxy war, flanked by a literal anti-diplomacy; that is, an obstinate refusal to communicate that was perversely elevated to the rank of policy.

For now, it is impossible to predict where we will go from here. Once – and if – the summit in Alaska takes place, and hopefully a follow-up meeting in Russia as well, will we finally have left the bloody and dangerous stagnation that was produced by, firstly, the West permitting Kiev to sabotage the 2015 Minsk II Agreement, then the stonewalling of Moscow’s last-chance negotiation offer of late 2021, and finally the West’s nixing of an almost-peace in April 2022? Or will we be disappointed and face more of the same: an ongoing Western proxy war against Russia through Ukraine, or even worse? One thing is clear, however. An end to the fighting and a halfway decent settlement would be very good news not only for Ukraine but also for the rest of the world, including a NATO-EU Europe that currently is, or at least pretends to be, ready to spoil a quick end to the slaughter next door.

Ukrainian and Russian lives would be saved; hopefully for a better future. The still real – if, by comparison with peak Biden, already reduced – danger of escalation into a regional or even global war would be further diminished. And, since this has also been a very costly sanctions war, there would be substantial economic benefits. Ukraine in particular, of course, would have the opportunity to rebuild, especially if its domestic politics took a postwar turn for the better, leaving the ultra-corrupt, authoritarian, and maniacal Zelensky regime behind. Against this background, it is counterintuitive and depressing but not really surprising that many Western ‘friends of Ukraine’ are greatly disturbed if not positively panicked by such prospects. A Ukraine where men are no longer hunted down by forced-mobilization squads to die or be traumatized – physically and mentally – in a militarily pointless war provoked by a failed Western strategy of using Ukraine to take Russia down a notch? A Ukraine that could actually recover from this devastating if perfectly avoidable catastrophe of hubris and badly misplaced trust?

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“If you are not at the negotiating table, you are on the menu.”

“We are talking now as if this were an open-ended war situation, but it is not. The Ukrainians have lost the war. Russia has won this war…”

Russia ‘Has Won The War’ – Orban (RT)

Russia has already won the Ukraine conflict and it is now up to the West to acknowledge this, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said. Orban made the remarks on Tuesday, shortly after he snubbed the latest joint EU statement in support of Ukraine issued ahead of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Alaska. Speaking to the ‘Patriot’ YouTube channel, the Hungarian leader said he partly opposed the statement as it only made the EU look “ridiculous and pathetic.” “When two leaders sit down to negotiate with each other, the Americans and the Russians … and you’re not invited there, you don’t rush for the phone, you don’t run around, you don’t shout in from the outside,” Orban stated. “If you are not at the negotiating table, you are on the menu.”

Moscow has already won the conflict against Ukraine, the Hungarian leader added, claiming that Kiev’s backers were in denial. “We are talking now as if this were an open-ended war situation, but it is not. The Ukrainians have lost the war. Russia has won this war,” he stressed. “The only question is when and under what circumstances will the West, who are behind the Ukrainians, admit that this has happened, and what will result from all this.” A member of both the EU and NATO, Hungary has consistently opposed Brussels’ policies on the Ukraine conflict since its escalation in February 2022, including weapons supplies to Kiev and sanctions against Russia. Budapest has also opposed the idea of Kiev joining either of the blocs.

Relations between Budapest and Kiev have been further soured by tensions around the Hungarian ethnic minority in Western Ukraine. Last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Kiev has no place in the EU and “doesn’t even belong among civilized nations,” citing the recent death of an ethnic Hungarian allegedly at the hands of Ukrainian draft officers.

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“World needs peace and security. Biden’s mistakes need to be corrected.”

‘Biden’s Mistakes Need To Be Corrected’ – Putin Envoy (RT)

The policies of former US President Joe Biden must be reversed to achieve global peace, Kirill Dmitriev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic envoy and a key figure in the Ukraine settlement process, has said. Dmitriev, who is also CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), took to X on Wednesday to comment on a White House post touting Trump as “the President of PEACE.” The post also listed several world leaders who had called for Trump to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. The Russian official seemingly approved of the message, writing: “World needs peace and security. Biden’s mistakes need to be corrected.”

Trump has frequently described the Ukraine conflict as “Biden’s war,” stressing that he intends to end it and claiming it would never have started had he been president in 2022. Dmitriev has been a key figure in the Ukraine settlement process, welcoming Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff during his visit to Moscow last week. Witkoff later held three-hour talks with Putin, which Moscow praised as “business-like and constructive,” adding that the US had made an “acceptable” offer regarding a potential settlement on Ukraine. Following the talks, Putin and Trump agreed to hold a summit in the city of Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15. The US president has described the event as a “feel-out meeting,” suggesting that discussions could focus on a potential land swap arrangement between Russia and Ukraine.

On Saturday, however, Dmitriev warned that certain countries interested in prolonging the Ukraine conflict could attempt to sabotage the summit through “provocations and disinformation.” Numerous Western media outlets have speculated that Trump is determined to win a Nobel Peace Prize. Last month, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt argued that “it’s well past time” for the US president to receive the award, which is traditionally handed out in December. Last week, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev endorsed Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his role in mediating the long-running disputes between their countries.

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“Everyone forgets the main issue – our territories are illegally occupied..”

No, the main issue is you were killing the people who live(d) there, in your own countrry, but happened to speak Russian.

Zelensky Refuses To Leave Donbass (RT)

Ukrainian troops will not voluntarily leave the territory they currently occupy in Donbass, Vladimir Zelensky has said, dismissing suggestions that the land could be included in a potential swap deal with Russia. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Zelensky claimed that ceding land in Donbass to Russia would only allow Moscow to begin a new war in a couple of years and push deeper into Ukraine. “We will not leave Donbass. We cannot do this. Everyone forgets the main issue – our territories are illegally occupied,” Zelensky stated. He alleged that the land would only serve as a “springboard” for Moscow to launch a new campaign against Ukraine in a couple of years.

“Any issue of territories cannot be separated from security guarantees. Otherwise, now they want to gift them about 9,000 square kilometers – this is about 30% of the Donetsk region, and this is a springboard for their new aggression,” he claimed. The remarks come after US President Donald Trump said a potential peace deal between Moscow and Kiev was bound to require territorial concessions from both sides. “They’ve [Russia] occupied some very prime territory. We’re going to try and get some of that territory back for Ukraine,” Trump said on Monday.

The Lugansk (LPR) and Donetsk (DPR) People’s Republics, as well as Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, became part of Russia following referendums held in 2022. While the LPR was fully liberated by the Russian military earlier this year, Moscow’s control over other former Ukrainian regions remains partial. Kiev has maintained its claim to the four territories, as well as to Crimea, which voted to join Russia shortly after the 2014 Western-backed armed coup in Kiev. Zelensky has publicly rejected any territorial concessions, although Moscow has insisted that any potential peace deal must involve the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Russia’s new regions.

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“Germany has a lot at stake given the nature of their contracting economy. The EU military industrial complex is centered around the nation Merz represents. There are trillions at stake..”

Merz Organizes Emergency EU Summit to Strategize How to Keep War Going (CTH)

The intellectually honest political watcher knows that overall Ukraine represents the largest international money laundering operation to shift wealth from taxpayers to the politically connected institutions, since COVID-19. The money is the motive to continue the conflict. With President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin scheduled to meet in Alaska for a summit to negotiate a ceasefire, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz quickly organizes a meeting between EU leaders and the U.K to figure out how the keep the war going. As the industrial capital of the EU, Germany has a lot at stake given the nature of their contracting economy. The EU military industrial complex is centered around the nation Merz represents. There are trillions at stake.

BERLIN — U.S. President Donald Trump will join European leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for an emergency virtual summit on Wednesday. The call, organized by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, comes ahead of Friday’s summit in Alaska between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine. The virtual summit will focus on pressure options against Russia, questions about Ukrainian territories seized by Russia, security guarantees for Kyiv and the sequencing of potential peace talks, a German government spokesperson told POLITICO.

Merz and other European leaders demand that Putin first agrees to a ceasefire before any peace talks or land swaps between Moscow and Kyiv can take place. They have also made clear that any potential territorial exchanges must be balanced and agreed with Kyiv, and that Ukraine should receive firm security guarantees to protect it against further aggression. Three diplomats told POLITICO that Merz’s team had been in intensive discussions with other capitals in recent days to organize the virtual meeting. (read more)

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Europe is broke. And building a war industry. That they don’t need.

Europe Rapidly ‘Building For War’ – FT (RT)

European arms factories have been expanding three times faster than they did before the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with more than 7 million square meters of new industrial development since 2022, the Financial Times has reported. According to the FT’s analysis of more than 1,000 radar satellite passes, building activity at European weapons plants now suggests “rearmament on a historic scale.” Moscow has condemned what it calls the West’s “reckless militarization.” The study covered 150 sites across 37 companies, with the largest growth at ammunition and missile facilities. About a third of the sites reviewed showed expansion or construction as Europe “builds for war,” the outlet said.

Examples include a new Rheinmetall–N7 plant in Hungary, MBDA’s expansion in Germany to manufacture Patriot missiles, and a Kongsberg plant in Norway which opened in 2024. Western European leaders have described the buildup as essential to meet NATO targets, sustain military aid to Kiev and deter what they claim is a risk of Russian aggression. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also called for building “Europe’s strongest army,” while his Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has backed moves to reintroduce conscription. Moscow has repeatedly denied any intent to attack NATO or EU states, calling such claims “absurd” fearmongering aimed at justifying increased military spending.

Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Western European leaders were “trying to prepare Europe for war – not some hybrid war, but a real war against Russia.” He claimed the EU had plunged into a “Russophobic frenzy” and warned that its militarization had become “uncontrolled,” likening the trend to “historical events” and alleging that Western European nations are “transforming into a Fourth Reich.” Moscow has also consistently criticized Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, arguing they only serve to prolong the fighting and cause unnecessary casualties without changing the outcome of the conflict.

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“Rutte said Ukraine’s Western backers “can never accept that in a legal sense,” but he suggested that they might tacitly acknowledge Russian control..”

Cracks Appear In NATO Unity Ahead Of Alaska Summit (ZH)

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, as head of NATO’s largest and most well-armed ‘eastern flank’ country, expressed both concern and cautious optimism on Monday ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin summit set in Alaska, focused on the war in Ukraine. Tusk emphasized ‘hope’ based on Washington’s assurance that it would consult its European allies before the talks. “The US has committed to consulting with its European partners ahead of the Alaska meeting,” Tusk told a press conference. “I will wait to see the outcome of the talks between Presidents Trump and Putin — I have many concerns, but also some hope.” But he also laid out, “The West, including European countries, will not accept Russian demands which simply amount to the seizure of Ukrainian territory.”

Tusk further stressed that European leaders were united in their stance on peace negotiations, insisting that Ukraine must be actively included in any talks. But the reality and elephant in the room is that Moscow is not going to sign onto a final peace settlement and halt its special military operation for nothing short of territorial concessions. It is not going to give up its conquered territories in the Donbas, which it has already declared part of the Russian Federation. “For Poland and our partners, it is clear: borders cannot be altered by force,” Tursk said. “Russia must not gain from its aggression against Ukraine.” The rest of European leadership clearly agrees with him. “As we work towards a sustainable and just peace, international law is clear: All temporarily occupied territories belong to Ukraine,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said.

“A sustainable peace also means that aggression cannot be rewarded.” And yet, on Sunday NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte actually for the first time opened the door a little on the question of territorial concessions: “In the end, the issue of the fact that the Russians are controlling at this moment, factually, a part of Ukraine has to be on the table” in any peace talks after the Alaska summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on CBS on Sunday. Rutte said Ukraine’s Western backers “can never accept that in a legal sense,” but he suggested that they might tacitly acknowledge Russian control. He compared it to the way that the U.S. hosted the diplomatic missions of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from 1940 to 1991, “acknowledging that the Soviet Union was controlling those territories, but never accepting (it) in a legal sense.”

He explained, “When it comes to the entire issue of territory, when it comes to recognition, for example, perhaps in a future agreement, that Russia actually controls part of Ukrainian territory, that must be an actual recognition, not a de jure political recognition.” Does this reflect Trump’s thinking too? If there’s any hope whatsoever of making headway with Putin in Alaska, this will indeed have to be on the table. Otherwise there will be no point in talking and the whole meeitng will prove futile in terms of finding a settlement. Still, what Russia will come a away with is a big diplomatic win regardless – just in the optics alone – in the fact that ‘isolated’ Putin is given a face-to-face bilateral summit with Trump.

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“The toothless chihuahua European pack, trying to salvage its pitiful Kiev actor, is doing somersaults – complete with possible black swans – to derail the summit even before it happens.”

The Bear and the Eagle Face-Off in Alaska (Pepe Escobar)

All eyes on Alaska. The Bear-Eagle face-off is part of an astonishing acceleration of history in the summer of 2025. Two weeks after Alaska, there’s the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) annual summit in Tianjin, China. India’s Narendra Modi and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian will join, among others, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at the same table. A BRICS/SCO table. September 3, in Beijing, is the 80th anniversary of what is officially defined as the victory of “the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War”. Putin is the guest of honor. The rehearsal, with 22,000 participants, took place this past weekend in Tian’anmen Square. On the same day, in Russia’s Vladivostok, it’s the start of the Eastern Economic Forum, which discusses everything about Russia’s drive to develop the Arctic and eastern Siberia – the equivalent of the Chinese “Go West” campaign started in the late 1990s.

Key Eurasian players will be in the house. Putin addresses the plenary session on September 5. Top BRICS leaders of China, Russia, Brazil and India, meanwhile, are actively involved in a flurry of phone calls coordinating a collective response to the tariff wars – part of the hybrid war by the Empire of Chaos against BRICS and the Global South. Let’s see how Alaska is setting the stage for something much bigger. The summit was announced following what Putin advisor Yuri Ushakov concisely defined as “a proposal from the American side which we think is quite acceptable.” This sentence was as far as the Kremlin would comment – in contrast with the non-stop verbal onslaught emanating from Washington. That the Kremlin even considered the American offer means an implicit recognition of what Russia is achieving on the battlefield and in the geoeconomic sphere.

Timing. Why now? Especially after Trump had threatened buyers of Russian oil with tariffs? Essentially, because military intel in selected deep state silos have done the math and finally admitted that the long proxy war in Ukraine is lost. Moreover, Trump personally wants to get over it so as to concentrate on the next chapters of the Forever Wars – including the one that really matters: against “existential threat” China. From Moscow’s point of view, conditioned by the successful results of its calibrated war of attrition, the facts on the battlefield spell out the special military operation rollin’ on – and no ceasefire; at best a “humanitarian” pause of a few days. The Americans want a ceasefire of at least a few weeks. Reconciling both sides’ optics will be a Sisyphean task. Still, Alaska is just the beginning: the next meeting is already in the works to take place in the Russian Federation, according to Ushakov.

Trump’s motives are easily identified: create the perception of the US extracting itself from the mess; some sort of truce; and back to doing business with Russia – especially in the Arctic. In parallel, assuming any sort of deal, the deep state will never recognize the new Russian regions, even Donetsk and Lugansk; and will seek to re-weaponize Ukraine, “leading from behind”, for a NATO-led war replay further on down the road. So the US-Russia abyss is mirrored by the domestic American abyss – and most of all the Trump-NATO/EU abyss. The toothless chihuahua European pack, trying to salvage its pitiful Kiev actor, is doing somersaults – complete with possible black swans – to derail the summit even before it happens. There’s no way Trump can sell any sort of settlement to the rabid NATO/EU pack. But nothing would please him more than to transfer the war – in full – to them.

With the benefit that the deep state in this case will not complain – because it will be reaping massive euro profits from the weapons sale racket. End result: a classic Trump PR win. Ukraine, though, will not be the main theme in Alaska. The ever-perceptive Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov cut to the chase: what really matters is that “the first signs of common sense are appearing in Russia-US relations, which were absent for several years before.” Ryabkov was quick to also highlight the dangers: the risk of nuclear conflict in the world “is not decreasing”; and Russia sees the risk that “after the expiration of the New START Treaty, nuclear arms control will be completely absent”.

Once again: Alaska is just the beginning of something much bigger – including, finally, a serious discussion about “indivisibility of security” (what Moscow wanted already in December 2021, rebuffed by the autopen administration). And that brings us to the Arctic – and serious stuff that will certainly be debated in depth at the upcoming Vladivostok forum. The Arctic holds at least 13% of global undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of undiscovered natural gas. Russia controls at least half of all these reserves. The Empire of Chaos badly wants to be part of the action.

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As many flags as they can think of.

Kiev Planning False-Flag Attack Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit – MOD (RT)

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has alleged that the Ukrainian government is preparing a high-profile provocation intended to derail the upcoming Russian-American summit scheduled for August 15. According to Moscow, the plan involves staging an attack in a frontline city and blaming it on Russian forces in order to create a damaging international media narrative. The Russian side asserts that Western journalists have already been brought into the Kharkov Region in order to produce civilian-focused reports. On April 1, 2022, the Zelensky government accused the Russian military of massacring civilians in the town of Bucha near Kiev. Moscow maintains that the alleged massacre in March 2022 was a Ukrainian false-flag operation designed to derail peace talks which were taking place in Istanbul at the time. Moscow insists that the killings took place after its forces had left the town, and has called for a UN investigation.

Below is the full text of the statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense. “According to information obtained through multiple channels, the Kiev regime is preparing a provocation aimed at disrupting the planned Russian-American talks scheduled for August 15 of this year. To this end, on Monday, August 11, a group of foreign media journalists was transported by the SBU to the city of Chuguev in the Kharkov Region, under the cover story of “preparing a series of reports about residents of the city in the frontline zone.” Directly before the summit, on Friday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are reportedly planning a staged strike using drones and missiles on one of the densely populated residential areas or a hospital, with a large number of civilian casualties. The Western journalists brought in are expected to immediately “document” the incident.

As a result of this provocation by the Kiev regime, all responsibility for the strike and civilian casualties will be assigned to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, with the goal of creating a negative media backdrop and conditions for derailing Russian-American cooperation on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Provocations in other settlements under Kiev’s control are also possible.

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“Peace is within reach — but it will not survive if the world falls for one last, desperate trick from a regime with nothing left to lose.”

War’s Final Act: Zelensky’s Dangerous Play To Crash Russia-US Talks (Romanenko)

The war in Ukraine is no longer balanced on a knife’s edge, as some might have thought during the Kursk invasion. The outcome is now visible to anyone willing to look past the headlines: Kiev’s forces are depleted, morale is collapsing, and the long-promised “turning points” have come and gone without materializing. Even Western officials, once confident in endless military aid, are now speaking in guarded tones about “realistic expectations.” On the battlefield, the momentum has shifted irreversibly. Against this backdrop, the recent statement from Russia’s Ministry of Defense should not be dismissed as mere rhetoric. Moscow alleges that Ukrainian forces are preparing a major provocation — an attack designed to sabotage the upcoming Russia–US peace talks. For those who understand the stakes, the logic is disturbingly clear.

Donald Trump, now poised to play a decisive role in shaping Washington’s foreign policy, has shown a pragmatic grasp of reality. Unlike his predecessors, he is not bound by the fantasy that Ukraine can “win” if only more money and weapons are sent. He has signaled that ending this conflict is both possible and necessary. This puts him on a collision course with those who see peace not as a goal, but as a threat to their own survival.For President Zelensky, peace is political extinction. Any agreement that cements territorial realities will shatter the narrative that has sustained his rule. It will mark the end of his leverage in the West, the erosion of his political base at home, and likely the swift rise of challengers eager to blame him for Ukraine’s fate. Under such pressure, the temptation to derail talks by any means available — including acts of sabotage — becomes more than plausible.

This is not conjecture; it is the historical pattern of leaders who find themselves cornered. In modern conflicts across the globe, we’ve seen desperate governments resort to reckless measures when facing the collapse of their strategic position. The danger here is that such a provocation, if timed to coincide with peace negotiations, could provoke outrage in Washington, disrupt fragile diplomatic channels, and push the conflict back toward open escalation.Trump has already done much to shift the debate away from the entrenched “forever war” mindset. He has taken political risks to challenge the military–industrial inertia that thrives on endless conflict. But now, perhaps more than ever, he will need to remain steady. The coming weeks will test his ability to see through manipulations and to resist being drawn into the agendas of those who profit from instability.

Peace is within reach — but it will not survive if the world falls for one last, desperate trick from a regime with nothing left to lose.

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“BRICS+ is estimated to be a vibrant market of around 4.45 billion people. It’s a platform for peace – not a defense alliance – and not a threat to any country…”

Putin’s Master-Move: BRICS Has Become the World’s New Control Room (Sp.)

After meeting Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff — and before the much-anticipated summit — President Vladimir Putin called key Global South leaders. India’s Narendra Modi, China’s Xi Jinping, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, and Brazil’s Lula da Silva were all briefed on the latest Ukraine talks. “President Putin has taken a very important step which will into the future set a precedence,” Prof. Fulufhelo Netswera from Durban University of Technology in South Africa tells Sputnik. This lets him act confidently with BRICS backing — while equally empowering other members in similar cases. For the first time beyond NATO’s orbit, presidents are meeting multilaterally to talk war and peace. Without UN reform, BRICS could evolve into a tighter, more formidable alliance offering mutual guarantees, Netswera believes.

As the US threatens the bloc, the time is ripe to create a BRICS currency and bolster trade, according to Netswera. Such steps could dramatically change world affairs, leaving Europe and the US as junior players in the global economy. “The US is targeting BRICS with special tariffs and starting geopolitical re-alignment to target BRICS,” says Dr. Anuradha Chenoy, retired professor of the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
In response, BRICS boosts collaboration to defend the global majority and multipolarity. BRICS accounts for 40% of the global economy measured by purchasing power parity, PPP (2024). BRICS+ is estimated to be a vibrant market of around 4.45 billion people. It’s a platform for peace – not a defense alliance – and not a threat to any country, Chenoy highlights.

“As supporters of Russia’s fight with NATO over European security through its special military operation in Ukraine, BRICS member states deserve to be kept informed [by Putin],” Gilbert Doctorow, an international affairs analyst, tells Sputnik. Russia enters the Alaska talks with strong leverage, proven by its victorious conduct in Ukraine and unmatched resistance to harsh US sanctions. Its resilience adds to BRICS’ overall confidence on the global stage.

Read more …

He’s already been indicted for mortgage fruad. This is next.

“..shamelessly reading the discredited Steele dossier into the congressional record and falsely claiming to have seen intelligence proving Trump’s guilt—claims that were pure fiction..”

Whistleblower: Russiagate a Schiff-Approved Smear from the Start (Margolis)

A veteran career intelligence officer who spent more than a decade working for Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee repeatedly warned the FBI—beginning in 2017—that then-Rep. Adam Schiff had personally approved leaking classified information to smear then-President Donald Trump over the now-debunked Russiagate hoax. Schiff became the face of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative, shamelessly reading the discredited Steele dossier into the congressional record and falsely claiming to have seen intelligence proving Trump’s guilt—claims that were pure fiction. According to JusttheNews.com, these new bombshell allegations are detailed in FBI memos that Director Kash Patel has now turned over to Congress, exposing Schiff’s brazen use of intelligence as a political weapon.

The FBI 302 interview reports obtained by Just the News state the intelligence staffer — a Democrat by party affiliation who described himself as a friend to both Schiff, now a California senator, and former Republican House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes — considered the classified leaking to be “unethical,” “illegal,” and “treasonous,” but was told not to worry about it because Schiff believed he would be spared prosecution under the Constitution’s speech and debate clause. No publicly-disclosed opinion from the Attorney General or the Solicitor General can be found making that determination as a matter of law. But officials told Just the News that DOJ officials showed little interest in pursuing Schiff when the allegations were brought to them years ago, citing the very same excuse the lawmaker had offered.

A 2023 FBI interview proved pivotal. The whistleblower described meetings where Schiff authorized leaks calibrated to discredit Trump, going so far as to declare the leaks would help lead to an indictment: When working in this capacity, [redacted staffer’s name] was called to an all-staff meeting by SCHIFF. In this meeting, SCHIFF stated the group would leak classified information which was derogatory to President of the United States DONALD J. TRUMP. SCHIFF stated the information would be used to indict President TRUMP. According to the whistleblower he “stated this would be illegal and, upon hearing his concerns, unnamed members of the meeting reassured that they would not be caught leaking classified information.” Unfortunately, the leaks no longer fall within the statute of limitations, effectively shielding Schiff from prosecution.

Meanwhile, as we’ve previously reported, he’s recently faced referral to the DOJ for suspected mortgage fraud, making this pattern of ethical lapses impossible to ignore. Patel deserves credit for releasing the documents that make clear how intelligence and law enforcement have been wielded as blunt political instruments. “For years, certain officials used their positions to selectively leak classified information to shape political narratives,” Patel told JusttheNews.com. “It was all done with one purpose: to weaponize intelligence and law enforcement for political gain. Those abuses eroded public trust in our institutions.” Patel added, “The FBI will now lead the charge, with our partners at DOJ, and Congress will have the chance to uncover how political power may have been weaponized and to restore accountability.”

It is now impossible to ignore how Adam Schiff hijacked classified information and congressional authority to orchestrate political warfare from the heart of government. The only winners are the cynics who bet on Washington’s inability to police itself. For anybody paying attention, the scale and brazenness of these abuses demand not just censure, but real accountability.

Read more …

“..the EU has gone in a bolder direction: financing a historical revisionism that deliberately weakens Europe’s cultural confidence and historical memory in the name of “diversity”..

EU Spent Millions to ‘Prove’ That Islam ‘Belongs’ in Europe (Ibrahim)

The European Union has decided that what the continent really needs right now — amid economic stagnation, mass illegal immigration, rising crime, and cultural disintegration — is to funnel 10 million taxpayer euros into propagating fake history. And not the usual or normal kind of fake history that many nations employ — the kind meant to puff up their own civilization’s legacy. No, the EU has gone in a bolder direction: financing a historical revisionism that deliberately weakens Europe’s cultural confidence and historical memory in the name of “diversity” — the kind that’s currently killing the continent.

The program, oxymoronically titled “The European Qur’an” (EuQu), has one overarching goal: to convince Europeans that Islam and the Koran were somehow foundational pillars of European civilization. As the project’s homepage proudly proclaims, the idea is to “challenge traditional perceptions of the Qur’anic text and well-established ideas about European religious and cultural identities” through exhibitions, conferences, and books — that is, through mass propaganda. Because what better use could there be for €10 million than reeducating Europeans into believing that Islam has always belonged in Europe, that the Koran was never a foreign invader’s playbook but rather a misunderstood sibling of the European canon?

According to the website, the project spans 700 years (1150–1850) of European history, stretching from the Iberian Peninsula to Hungary, and insists that “the influence of Islam on European culture is greatly underestimated.” Is there any truth to this claim? Well, yes — if by “influence” one includes centuries of war, conquest, slavery, and terror. As historian Bernard Lewis — no one’s idea of a right-wing zealot — once wrote: “We tend nowadays to forget that for approximately a thousand years, from the advent of Islam in the seventh century until the second siege of Vienna in 1683, Christian Europe was under constant threat from Islam, the double threat of conquest and conversion. Most of the new Muslim domains were wrested from Christendom. Syria, Palestine, Egypt, and North Africa were all Christian countries, no less, indeed rather more, than Spain and Sicily. All this left a deep sense of loss and a deep fear.”

Read more …

“..two out of the three not-Mamdani candidates need to drop out to give the city a fighting chance against the nepo-red-diaper-baby candidate..”

“We’ve had Radical Lefties before, but this is getting a little ridiculous,” Trump posted..”

Yep, Mamdani Will Be NYC’s Next Mayor (Green)

“Nice city you have here — it would be a shame if something were to happen to it.” Something bad is about to happen to New York City. Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong. The greatest city in the world deserves something better than a commie-racist/nepo-red-diaper-baby like Zohran Mamdani as its mayor. But recent news has me convinced that the commie-racist/nepo-red-diaper-baby will be the city’s next mayor. President Donald Trump called Mamdani a “communist lunatic” back in June, and he isn’t wrong. Every time some old social media post of the Democrat mayoral nominee resurfaces, he’s boasting that “the end goal is seizing the means of production,” complaining that capitalism is theft, or defending al-Qaeda terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki.

It’s telling that Mamdani hasn’t scrubbed his social media history. It’s telling because he’s telling New Yorkers exactly who he is — but in recent polling, he still wins a plurality of the vote in what amounts to a four-candidate race. “I’ve never seen someone so far to the left,” an anonymous political pro told the New York Post earlier this year. “He’s anti-Israel, he’s all up in the protests and violence. This is not how a mayoral candidate behaves.” Nevertheless, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has resigned herself to a Mamdani win in November. “There’s many areas of disagreement, but also there’s areas of alignment, including affordability,” Hochul told Fox News on Sunday. “His election touched a nerve. And people said, you know what, we’re just not getting ahead. And the Trump policies that were promised to lift people up, reduce costs, not touch Medicaid, make sure that tariffs create jobs, none of that happened. So there is this sense of we need some change now.”

“I will make it work out because I’m not going to go to war with the eight million residents of New York that I also represent, so my job is to calm things down.” GOP mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa — running what almost amounts to a novelty campaign with just 15% support in the latest Decision Desk poll — came out swinging on Friday against Trump inserting himself into the race. “Every day it’s Trump versus Zohran Mamdani, it’s a good day for Zohran Mamdani. Every day that Cuomo and Adams talks about you, ‘you drop out, you job out,’ it’s a good day for Zohran Mamdani,” Sliwa told Fox 5’s Morgan McKay on “Politics Unusual” on Friday. “In this situation, it doesn’t help if he intervenes in New York City.”

I wouldn’t be so sure about that because something needs to change if sanity can prevail in November. In a four-way race where Cuomo, Sliwa, and Adams split the Not-Quite-Bat-Guano-Crazy vote, Mamdani almost certainly wins. Decision Desk has Mamdani up a bit in recent days at 38%. Cuomo is a distant second with 25%, and the incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, appears to be going down in flames with just 11.5% support. Sliwa might not want to admit it, but two out of the three not-Mamdani candidates need to drop out to give the city a fighting chance against the nepo-red-diaper-baby candidate. “We’ve had Radical Lefties before, but this is getting a little ridiculous,” Trump posted earlier this summer. If the deluded voters of New York City want Mamdani, they’ll get him — good and hard.

Read more …

“I convict someone of shooting another person with an illegal gun on a public bus in the chest, intent to kill, I convict him. And you know what the judge gives him: Probation. Says, ‘You should go to college.’..

US Attorney Jeanine Pirro: System Coddles Violent Young Criminals (Margolis)

As my PJ Media colleague Chris Queen previously reported, President Donald Trump announced a federalization of law enforcement in Washington, D.C., deploying the National Guard to address escalating crime, homelessness, and disorder in the city. In a press conference, he declared it a “Liberation Day” for the nation’s capital, emphasizing the need to restore order and safety. Trump criticized the city’s current state, referencing a recent incident involving a large group of youths causing mayhem in the Navy Yard area. Attorney General Pam Bondi echoed the sentiment, stating that crime in D.C. is “ending today.” FBI Director Kash Patel and U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro also spoke at the event, supporting the federal intervention. And Pirro was on fire! When she spoke at the press conference, she delivered a fiery critique of the city’s weak youth crime laws and called for immediate reform.

“I see too much violent crime being committed by young punks who think that they can get together in gangs and crews and beat the hell out of you or anyone else,” Pirro said bluntly. “They don’t care where they are. They can be in DuPont Circle, but they know that we can’t touch them. Why? Because the laws are weak.” Pirro detailed the frustration of prosecuting violent young offenders only to see the system let them off easy. “I can’t touch you if you’re 14, 15, 16, 17 years old and you have a gun. I convict someone of shooting another person with an illegal gun on a public bus in the chest, intent to kill, I convict him. And you know what the judge gives him: Probation. Says, ‘You should go to college.’ We need to go after the D.C. Council and their absurd laws.”

She was equally critical of the no-cash bail policy and the broader leniency toward youthful offenders, emphasizing that law-abiding citizens deserve protection first and foremost: “We need to get rid of this concept of, you know, uh, uh, no cash bail. We need to recognize that the people who matter are the law-abiding citizens, and it starts today. But it’s not gonna end today, because the President is gonna do everything we need to do to make sure that these emboldened criminals understand, we see you, we’re watching you, and we’re gonna change the law to catch you.”

Pirro also highlighted a glaring gap in jurisdiction and accountability. She showed a poster of a young man, a former DOGE staffer, who was brutally beaten, suffering a severe concussion and a broken nose. Yet despite the violence, she explained, “These kids understand that the jurisdiction is through the State Attorney General Brian Schwab. I did a poster of the young man from DOGE who was beaten bloody with a severe concussion, a broken nose, and then I did a poster of what happens to those kids ’cause I can’t arrest them, I can’t prosecute them.”

Instead, she said, the offenders are sent to family court, where they “get to do yoga and arts and crafts.” Her frustration was clear: “Enough. It changes today.” Pirro’s remarks cut straight to the heart of a broken system that emboldens violent youth while leaving law-abiding citizens unprotected. Her relentless, no-nonsense stance at the press conference was exactly the kind of leadership Washington desperately needs. Far from empty rhetoric, her fierce condemnation of weak laws that tie prosecutors’ hands was a powerful rallying cry for real, meaningful reform.

Pirro didn’t hold back in calling out the D.C. Council’s failures and showed an unwavering commitment to putting the safety of law-abiding citizens first. She made it clear she isn’t afraid to challenge the entrenched bureaucracy that stands in the way of justice. With her voice rising alongside President Trump’s decisive federal intervention, there’s genuine hope that the city’s spiraling crime crisis will finally be confronted head-on and that order and safety will be restored to the nation’s capital once and for all.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Turbo

BTC

Public debt

Hegseth
https://twitter.com/TRUMP_ARMY_/status/1955214428028407903

 

 

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Dec 132015
 
 December 13, 2015  Posted by at 9:54 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  7 Responses »


Marion Post Wolcott “Center of town. Woodstock, Vermont. Snowy night” 1940

Why A 0.25% Rate Hike Should Have Big Banks Nervous But Probably Won’t (Bern)
“Coppock Guide” Signals A Bear Market Is At Hand (ZH)
Junk-Bond Rout Deepens, Sends Shockwaves Through Stocks, Other Markets (WSJ)
Junk-Bond Fund’s Demise Highlights SEC Mutual-Fund Worries (WSJ)
China Steel Output Slumps to a One-Year Low as Prices Collapse (BBG)
Missing Chinese Billionaire ‘Assisting Authorities in an Investigation’ (WSJ)
US Senators Close in on Oil-Export Deal Amid Tax-Break Talks (BBG)
EU Powerless to Stop Nationalist Ascendancy as Terror Fears Rise (BBG)
French Vote for Regions as Main Parties Seek to Shut Out Le Pen (BBG)
Julian Assange May Face Swedish Interrogation Within Days (Guardian)
James Hansen, Father Of Climate Change Awareness: Paris Talks ‘A Fraud’ (Guar.)
No Mention In Paris Of Refugees: Global Issues Live In Separate Boxes (Betts)
The Athens Lawyer Who Became A Guardian To Refugee Camp Children (Guardian)

The fixed game.

Why A 0.25% Rate Hike Should Have Big Banks Nervous But Probably Won’t (Bern)

Current excess reserves at the Fed earn interest – The big banks hold a lot of excess reserves at the Federal Reserve [Fed]. The current interest rate paid by the Fed on both required and excess reserves is 0.25%, or 25 basis points. The rate is subject to change by the Fed Board. No surprise that this policy was set forth in the Federal Reserve Regulatory Relief Act of 2006 which was scheduled to go into effect October 1, 2011. Also, no surprise was the advanced effective date of October 1, 2008 when relief for banks was imperative.

The current profit stream that banks count on – According to the St. Louis Fed, depository institutions (banks) held over $2.5 trillion in excess reserves at the Fed in November. At a mere 25 basis points in interest that $2.5 trillion in excess reserves earns big banks about $6.25 billion a year in risk-free revenue. All of that amount may not go directly to the bottom line, though. How much depends upon what interest rate the Fed charges banks to borrow those funds (the fed funds rate). The effective fed funds rate has ranged between 7 basis points and 16 basis points over most of the last five years. The average borrowing rate of big banks since January 1, 2015 has been 12.27 basis points, or 0.1227%.

The banks have earned about $5.73 billion so far in 2015 on excess reserves. The cost to borrow those reserves has been approximately $3.07 billion. The net income earned from those borrowed reserves is $2.66 billion in 2015 thus far. That works out to an average of $725 million per quarter in extra earnings just for borrowing the money and leaving it parked at the Fed. Now, this may not seem like much to you, but I would not mind getting in on that action.

What happens when the fed funds rate rises by 25 basis points? – Let’s be honest about the rate hike, okay? The current fed funds rate is officially set at between zero and 25 basis points. So, if the Fed raises the official fed funds rate to 25 basis point, if that is the actual outcome, then it really will not be raising the rate by a full 25 basis points. The increase will be something more like about 13 basis points over the actual rate since the beginning of the year. Now, if the Fed raises the official rate to between 25 basis points and 50 basis points, then the difference could be closer to 25 basis points. But, it still depends on where within that range the actual fed funds rate lands. If it lands closer to the minimum of the range then the increase is more like 13 to 15 basis points. If it lands in the middle, then we have an actual increase in rates of about 25 basis points as advertised.

I do not really expect the actual rate to rise much, if any, above the 25 basis points threshold. So, my expectation is for a real rate increase of about 15 basis points. But that would mean that the earnings by the big banks could fall to zero. Somehow I do not expect the big banks to take this lying down. I could be wrong, but I also expect another, less publicized change in rate policy by the Fed. If the fed funds rate increases to 25 basis points or more, then the “profits” earned by banks on excess reserves will evaporate into thin air and potentially turn into an expense. Unless…

If the Fed decides to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the range between 25 and 50 basis points the banks would either decide to reduce reserves (to avoid paying the Fed interest on borrowed funds) or the Fed would need to change the rate paid to depository institutions upward to 50 basis points. Banks would need to put that money to work at a higher level of risk or just pay off the loans from the Fed used to fund reserves. Most likely some of the excess reserves would be withdrawn and banks would attempt to make up the lost earnings by adding more risk to balance sheets. More risk in the financial system is not something we need right now. I do not think the banks really want to take on more risk at the moment either. And since the banks own the Fed, guess which route I expect the Fed to take?

Read more …

Psychology.

“Coppock Guide” Signals A Bear Market Is At Hand (ZH)

With Emerging Market currencies, bonds, and stocks collapsing, US corporate debt crashing, and carry trades unwinding everywhere (ahead of the $800 billion liquidity withdrawal that looms from next week’s 25bps hike from The Fed), it is no surprise that US equities are beginning to shudder (even the FANGs are not immune). But, as InvesTech Research notes, among its 6 compelling reasons to be cautious in 2016, the so-called Coppock Guide may be close to confirming that a bear market is at hand…:

In March 2015, the Coppock Guide was signaling that both primary and secondary momentum had peaked and this continues to be the case today. The Coppock Guide is a valuable tool to gauge the emotional state of a market index as it transitions from one psychological extreme to another. It was developed more than 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock and it measures momentum by taking a 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus a 11-month rate of change of a market index. The Coppock Guide is typically most useful at market bottoms, when market indexes reverse sharply as psychology shifts. It signals a “Best Buy” opportunity when the index turns upward from below “0” (see black dashed lines). The last such buy signal came within 60 days after the March 2009 market bottom.

Early in a bull market, momentum runs high and often peaks early. For this reason, the Coppock Guide isn’t as effective in identifying market tops. In fact, the initial peak in the Coppock Guide was seen during the first 18 months of this lengthy bull market, with a secondary peak in March 2014. When a double-top occurs in an extended bull market without the Coppock falling below “0”, it signals that psychological excess could be at an extreme. And when that momentum finally peaks (see red dashed lines), it usually means a bear market isn’t far behind. This phenomenon was first observed by a market technician named Don Hahn in the late 1960s. Since 1929, there have been only eight instances of a double-top, and each one was followed by bear market losses of 30% or more.

Read more …

It’ll be an interesting week.

Junk-Bond Rout Deepens, Sends Shockwaves Through Stocks, Other Markets (WSJ)

U.S. junk bonds posted their steepest decline since 2011, intensifying fears that a six-year bull market in stocks and other risky assets is nearing an end. The largest high-yield exchange-traded fund, the $15 billion iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, dropped 2%, to close at $79.52, its lowest since July 2009. Friday’s trading volume of 53 million shares doubled a record set Tuesday. The retreat punctuated a day of heavy selling across markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 310 points and U.S.-traded crude dropping 3.1%, to $35.62 a barrel. Oil’s 11% decline was its biggest weekly fall since March. Traders said much of Friday’s decline was triggered by the abrupt closure of a high-profile junk-bond mutual fund.

Investors in the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund learned this week that they won’t get all their cash back for months or more, as Third Avenue liquidates the $789 million fund. The action crystallized long-standing fears about the vulnerability of the stock and bond markets to a broad shift in sentiment. The spreads between U.S. junk bonds and Treasury securities have widened sharply over the past week, underscoring investors’ sense that the risk of default by companies with high levels of debt is on the rise. The Federal Reserve is expected next week to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, a development that traders said wasn’t a large part of Friday’s selloff but that has increased general market anxiety.

Some hedge funds are taking similar steps as Third Avenue. Hedge-fund firm Stone Lion Capital, a distressed-debt specialist, said it suspended redemptions in its credit hedge funds after many investors asked for their money back. Investors said it was a rare move in the hedge-fund industry since the financial crisis. This fall, Carlyle Group’s struggling Claren Road took a similar action. Some investors said that while they are concerned that falling commodity and junk-bond prices could point to economic turmoil ahead, U.S. consumer and jobs data have been mostly comforting. But even these investors said they are looking for ways to reconcile conflicting signs.

Read more …

Never a ‘run’. Until now?!

Junk-Bond Fund’s Demise Highlights SEC Mutual-Fund Worries (WSJ)

The demise of a Third Avenue junk-bond fund last week underscores financial regulators’ concerns about risks in mutual funds and highlights Washington’s urgency in trying to address those worries. Recently proposed rules are aimed at addressing the problems for investors exposed by the high-risk mutual fund’s struggles, but those regulations are unlikely to take effect until 2017 at the earliest. The Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this fall proposed new rules aimed at preventing the very types of problems that caused Third Avenue’s fund to essentially declare bankruptcy and bar investor withdrawals while it liquidates its high-yield Focused Credit Fund.

Those problems boiled down to the junk fund’s inability to raise sufficient cash to meet a sudden flood of investor redemptions without resorting to fire sales of its assets. The concern from regulators is that mutual funds and other asset managers fail to adequately foresee economic shocks, such as rising interest rates, which cause a fund to drop in value and prompt investors to bolt for the door. Widespread redemptions, in theory, could strain a fund’s ability to convert quickly assets into cash for redeeming shareholders, particularly during a crisis. “Nothing is more fundamental and important…than redeemability,” said SEC Commissioner Kara Stein in September. Ms. Stein’s remarks came as the SEC proposed, for the first time, to force fund managers to develop formal plans for their liquidity, or ability to easily buy and sell fund assets.

The measure also includes provisions aimed at dampening investor flight by allowing funds to charge fees to investors who bolt in periods of market stress. If those rules had been in place earlier, Third Avenue would have had to establish a “liquidity” plan and as part of it, set aside more assets that could be readily converted to cash. It may have faced charges for a poorly developed plan or for deviating from it. The fund industry has been quick to note that there hasn’t been a “run” on a long-term mutual fund in their 75 years of existence, through numerous interest-rate and market cycles. Large outflows from particular funds can occur, but never a “run” on the broader asset class.

Read more …

“Exports climbed 22% to 102 million tons in the first 11 months [..]. That’s almost as much as Japan, the world’s second-biggest producer, made in the whole of last year..”

China Steel Output Slumps to a One-Year Low as Prices Collapse (BBG)

Steelmakers in China reined in production last month as prices collapsed and the onset of winter in the largest producer curbed demand already hurt by a cooling economy. Crude steel output fell 1.6% to 63.32 million metric tons from a year earlier, according to data from the statistics bureau released Saturday. So far this year, production has dropped 2.2% to 738.38 million tons. China makes about half of the world’s steel. Demand in China is weakening as policy makers seek to steer Asia’s biggest economy away from investment-led growth to one driven by consumer demand and services. China’s steel sector contracted further last month, while an industry association said demand was shrinking at an unprecedented speed.

Determined to maintain output as growth cools, mills have flooded the world with exports, shipping more than 100 million tons this year. “The downtrend in steel output should continue as weak credit and demand conditions do not support expansion,” Huang Huiwen at Shanghai Cifco Futures said before the data was released. “Demand also goes into a seasonal lull, with some mills shutting for winter as construction slows.” As prices of some steel products slumped to records, mills in the country sought out overseas markets where their supplies may be sold at more competitive rates. Exports climbed 22% to 102 million tons in the first 11 months, according to customs data. That’s almost as much as Japan, the world’s second-biggest producer, made in the whole of last year, according to World Steel Association data.

Read more …

One a week?!

Chinese Billionaire Said to Be Assisting Authorities in an Investigation (WSJ)

Guo Guangchang became a billionaire by investing where China’s economy was going over the past two decades, pouring money into steel, property and finance while turning his gaze increasingly overseas. On Friday, Mr. Guo indicated authorities are holding him in connection with an investigation, a stark illustration of how Chinese business and finance is coming under intense scrutiny. After nearly two days of mystery over the whereabouts of the man who styles himself a Chinese Warren Buffett, a vague statement near midnight issued by his flagship investment conglomerate, Fosun International, said he is “assisting in certain investigations” by Chinese judicial authorities. The statement, which was signed by Mr. Guo, didn’t divulge his location, but said he is still able to participate in “major matters” before the company.

There was no indication of what the investigations were about or whether Mr. Guo could be implicated himself. Chinese investigators have broad powers to detain both suspects and potential witnesses even when they don’t face accusations of wrongdoing. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Friday she had no information. Since a midyear stock-market crash exposed weaknesses in China’s financial system, authorities have detained senior stockbrokers, fund managers and bankers from a handful of the country’s top firms, saying little about the progress or findings of their investigations. About a dozen of the most senior people at the biggest brokerage, Citic Securities, have been held for questioning by authorities for months, and the firm says it is cooperating with investigations.

Jitters are particularly high in Shanghai, China’s largest city, where the biggest markets are based. In addition, the Communist Party’s antigraft agency put a vice mayor in Shanghai under official investigation last month, then named certain local brokerages, insurers, a private-equity firm and business schools as targets of its next inspections. With a proud mercantile tradition that has produced the largest regional economy in China, Shanghai has long celebrated business champions. And few stand taller than Mr. Guo, a 48-year-old with a steely focus on building asset values. A standard-bearer for private entrepreneurs, Mr. Guo’s personal fortune was estimated this year at $7.8 billion by Shanghai research firm Hurun Report, putting him at No. 17 on its list of China’s wealthiest people.

Read more …

Perfect timing re: CON21.

US Senators Close in on Oil-Export Deal Amid Tax-Break Talks (BBG)

Senate negotiators are nearing a deal to allow unfettered U.S. crude oil exports for the first time in 40 years, though differences remain on renewable-energy tax credits that Democrats are demanding in return, according to people close to the discussions. While any agreement could still collapse in the coming days – the deal faces opposition in the House – lawmakers are weighing the extension of solar and wind tax credits for as long as five years in exchange for lifting the crude-export restrictions, which were established to counter the energy shortages of the 1970s. Tax breaks are part of the discussion, though lawmakers are still negotiating the length of wind- and solar-energy tax extensions and whether they should be phased out, said a Senate Democratic leadership aide.

If agreed to and approved by Congress, repeal of the nation’s ban on most crude oil exports would mark the most significant shift in U.S. oil policy in more than a generation. Repeal, benefiting oil producers including ConocoPhillips, Hess Corp. and Continental Resources Inc., would come at a time when the industry is cutting jobs to deal with a global glut in crude oil and the lowest prices in seven years. Talks for a deal are under way as envoys from 195 nations reached an agreement to limit fossil-fuel pollution and curb the effects of climate change. Congress is considering lifting the export ban as part of either a package to extend expiring tax provisions or to finance the government through Sept. 30 before current funding authority expires Dec. 16.

Among the items being discussed are a 9% manufacturing tax credit for refiners and an extension of the U.S. Land Water Conservation Fund, according to at least three lobbyists close to the negotiations. Even if such a deal is struck by Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, House Democrats, who are vital to reaching an agreement, have suggested they won’t go along unless a provision for indexing the Child Tax Credit, which allows taxpayers to reduce federal income taxes for each qualifying child, is added to the mix. And it’s unclear whether House Republicans will support a deal if they assess that the price Democrats are seeking is too high.

Read more …

The EU causes nationalism.

EU Powerless to Stop Nationalist Ascendancy as Terror Fears Rise (BBG)

From Viktor Orban in the east to Marine Le Pen in the west, defiance of the European Union’s multilateral, multicultural, open-borders traditions is on the rise. But with issues like refugees and terrorism at the top of the agenda, there’s little the 28-nation EU can do about it. The popular clamor for security has strengthened the cult of the insular state that Orban champions in Hungary and Le Pen espouses in France. Europe’s multiple crises – first debt, then migration, now terrorism, all festering simultaneously – have put the established order on trial, from the former communist east to historically tolerant Sweden and EU-exit candidate Britain. The upshot is an existential threat that risks unpicking the union.

The collective blame lies with EU leaders for looking the other way, according to Sophie In ’t Veld, a Dutch member of the European Parliament, who says it is time to upgrade the bloc’s “very weak instruments” to enforce civil liberties and democratic due process. “People are beginning to lose faith in European integration,” In ’t Veld said in an interview on Thursday in Brussels. “We have all these wonderful values, and then it turns out that in practice they’re not being upheld.” The EU reached for literary heights to mark its eastern expansion on May 1, 2004, commissioning Nobel Prize-winning Irish poet Seamus Heaney to compose an ode to unity and inclusion: “On a day when newcomers appear, let it be a homecoming.”

That the newcomers didn’t feel at home became clear by 2010, when Orban returned as prime minister of Hungary and set out to build a more centralized state. Once a communist-era freedom fighter, Orban came to view democracy with its plurality of voices as a recipe for gridlock, for not getting things done. He championed the ideology of untrammeled majority rule – provided he had the majority – along with the rejection of multiculturalism in what he termed the “illiberal state.” Now Poland has elected a religiously tinged, anti-foreigner, anti-gay, family-values party, capturing the east’s discontent with the Europe it got after breaking free of Soviet domination. It has sought to pack Poland’s supreme court with party faithful, triggering a constitutional impasse.

Breakthroughs by anti-immigration parties across northwestern Europe – reaching an interim peak with the successes of Le Pen’s National Front in the first round of French regional primaries — showed that eastern Europe doesn’t have a patent on the more virulent strains of nationalism. The decisive runoff in France is on Sunday. The anti-European moment may pass, but for now, its originators are feeling vindicated. “The export of Western democracy has failed,” Orban said on Dec. 2, in remarks directed at the U.S. but applicable more broadly. “It’s time for realpolitik. The era based on the export of democracy and human rights is coming to an end.”

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This election or the next one, she’ll get there. Thanks to the EU.

French Vote for Regions as Main Parties Seek to Shut Out Le Pen (BBG)

French voters go to the polls Sunday to elect regional leaders in the last scheduled nationwide ballot before the next presidential contest in April 2017. President Francois Hollande, his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen are all jockeying for position in the race, which offers them the chance to establish regional bases and vaunt their credibility with an electorate battered by near-record unemployment and concerns over terrorism. Le Pen aims to build on the first-round result that showed her anti-euro, anti-immigrant party leading in the composite the national vote with prospects to win executive power in three of 13 regions for the first time. Sarkozy needs his party, The Republicans, to blunt her advance and show he has answers to France’s problems, while Hollande faces a judgment on his handling of the attacks that killed 130 in and around Paris one month ago.

“For many French voters, the stakes have changed,” said Jim Shields, a professor of politics at Aston University in Birmingham, England. “For years, elections have been fought on the question of who could best revitalize France’s ailing economy and bring down unemployment. Now, the paramount question is who can keep the French safe. That shift of priority plays to the advantage of the National Front.” Even so, as voters cast their ballots in the second-round runoff, Le Pen’s party is hobbled by its lack of allies from which it can draw fresh support. France’s two main parties are even working together in some districts to keep Le Pen out of power. Prime Minister Manuel Valls, a Socialist like Hollande, said on Friday that he was “convinced” his party’s supporters would engage in tactical voting to defeat Le Pen.

The latest polling suggests the National Front will fail to take either Nord-Pas de Calais-Picardie in the north or Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur in the south, both regions it looked set to take after the first round last Sunday. In the east, the party’s third target, the race is too close to call. Le Pen now looks to be losing her grip on the northern region that she is contesting personally. A BVA institute survey in Friday’s La Voix du Nord newspaper suggested she’ll lose out to the The Republic candidate, Xavier Bertrand, Sarkozy’s former labor minister. Marion Marechal Le Pen, the National Front leader’s niece, is also looking doubtful in the southern region.

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They can’t frustrate their own laws forever.

Julian Assange May Face Swedish Interrogation Within Days (Guardian)

The WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, may be questioned in London within days about alleged sexual offences after Ecuador indicated it had reached a bilateral deal with Sweden. Assange has been wanted for questioning by Swedish authorities since 2010, but was granted asylum by Ecuador and has been in the country’s London embassy for more than three years. In April, the activist said he consented to the Swedish prosecutor’s conditions for the interrogation procedure to take place in the Kensington embassy. The agreement refers specifically to Assange and Sweden’s intention to question him in London and will come into effect “in the coming days”, a statement from the Ecuadorian foreign ministry said.

Assange’s Swedish lawyer, Per Samuelson, told the Guardian that Sweden needed to formally approve the deal and he understood those discussions would take place on Thursday. Negotiations began in June this year between Ecuador’s acting foreign minister, Xavier Lasso, and the Swedish justice ministry’s international affairs chief, Anna-Carin Svensson. The Ecuadorian government statement said: “The agreement, without any doubt, is a tool that strengthens bilateral relations and facilitates, for example, the execution of such legal actions as the questioning of Mr Assange, isolated in the Ecuadorian embassy in London.”

The deal would ensure “the implementation and enforcement of national legislation and principles of international law, particularly those relating to human rights, to further the full exercise of national sovereignty in any event of legal assistance that may be required between Ecuador and Sweden”. The agreement would be the final step towards interviewing Assange in London, with a request to the UK for legal assistance having already been granted, according to previous statements from the Swedish prosecutor’s office. Assange sought refuge at the embassy in June 2012 after losing his final legal attempt to avoid extradition. Sweden’s director of public prosecutions, Marianne Ny, said in March this year that she would allow Assange to be interviewed in London if agreement could be reached with Ecuador.

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Not sure about carbon pricing. The last attempt was a disgrace.

James Hansen, Father Of Climate Change Awareness: Paris Talks ‘A Fraud’ (Guar.)

Mere mention of the Paris climate talks is enough to make James Hansen grumpy. The former Nasa scientist, considered the father of global awareness of climate change, is a soft-spoken, almost diffident Iowan. But when he talks about the gathering of nearly 200 nations, his demeanor changes. “It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”

The talks, intended to reach a new global deal on cutting carbon emissions beyond 2020, have spent much time and energy on two major issues: whether the world should aim to contain the temperature rise to 1.5C or 2C above preindustrial levels, and how much funding should be doled out by wealthy countries to developing nations that risk being swamped by rising seas and bashed by escalating extreme weather events. But, according to Hansen, the international jamboree is pointless unless greenhouse gas emissions aren’t taxed across the board. He argues that only this will force down emissions quickly enough to avoid the worst ravages of climate change.

Hansen, 74, has just returned from Paris where he again called for a price to be placed on each tonne of carbon from major emitters (he’s suggested a “fee” – because “taxes scare people off” – of $15 a tonne that would rise $10 a year and bring in $600bn in the US alone). There aren’t many takers, even among “big green” as Hansen labels environment groups.

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Refugees don’t make for the same kind of feel good fodder.

No Mention In Paris Of Refugees: Global Issues Live In Separate Boxes (Betts)

While the United Nations climate change talks in Paris struggled to elicit credible commitments, notably missing from the debate was “environmental displacement” – people fleeing their homes on account of natural disaster. As temperatures and sea levels rise, and land-use patterns change, there will be significant consequences for human mobility within and across borders. However, public and media debate scarcely discussed the issue, and the only references in the Paris summit’s negotiated outcome document are vague to the point of meaninglessness. This absence is especially striking in a year in which refugees and migration have otherwise been so high on the political agenda. This political dissonance is of a piece with the compartmentalised way in which we approach many global issues.

During a frenzied summer, media coverage and political attention focused almost exclusively on refugees. Now, with saturation point reached, the circus has moved on. Climate change has, instead, become the de rigueur liberal issue of the day. Remarkably, the global focus on refugees was insufficient to influence the debate in Paris. When we shift our attention so dramatically, we risk missing important analytical connections and, with them, opportunities for meaningful solutions. To be clear, the so-called European refugee crisis was certainly not caused by climate change. But it is symptomatic of a global protection crisis, with climate change as one key component. That crisis is partly the result of numbers: there are more people displaced around the world than at any time since the second world war.

It is partly the result of political will: asylum is being undermined by governments around the world. However, it is above all a reflection of a growing gap between the contemporary nature of displacement and the institutions that govern forced migration. In the aftermath of the second world war, governments created the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. It ensures that states have a reciprocal obligation towards people fleeing a well-founded fear of persecution. This framework was well adapted to the refugee movements of the 20th century. It continues to be relevant, but it leaves gaps.

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Greece has many good souls.

The Athens Lawyer Who Became A Guardian To Refugee Camp Children (Guardian)

Christina Dimakou is not yet 30, but she has four children, one of whom is 17. She shares neither a nationality nor a past with any of them. Two of them are from Syria: the 17-year-old girl fled Damascus after soldiers attempted to kidnap her and her brother, who escaped conscription; there’s a 10-year-old from Iran who longs to go to school for the first time; and a young girl from Afghanistan who has lost her family. For now Dimakou is their guardian. She cares for them within the confines of Moria, a makeshift hilltop camp for refugees on the Greek island of Lesbos. Her charges spend their days behind chain-linked fences where a discarded Minnie Mouse in a torn pink dress, caught in the razor wire, is the only indication that this is the children’s area.

More than 700,000 refugees have entered Europe through Greece this year, most of them wet and bedraggled arrivals on its eastern Aegean islands. Their coming has shaken Europe and changed the life of this determined lawyer. Instead of practising law in Athens, where she passed the bar exam, Dimakou has moved her life to an island now famous for the refugees who wash up on its shores. It’s a life with few of the trappings of the metropolitan middle class with whom she grew up. Her working outfit is an aid worker’s bib, her hair tied back. She shuttles between the crumbling neoclassical architecture of the port city of Mytilene and the crowded refugee reception centre at Moria in a battered Toyota loaded with translators and the dirt from a thousand strangers’ shoes.

She is one of only a dozen members of the guardianship network, a fledgeling programme run by the Athens-based charity Metadrasi, designed to help the countless lost children who have arrived alone. Some have been separated from their families while fleeing Syria, others have taken it upon themselves to strike out and find a new home for relatives who will follow later. Many of them have been told they carry their family’s only hope. To explain her decision Dimakou uses the allegory of the little boy and the starfish. Every day he would go to the beach and throw a few of the dying starfish he found back into the sea. When asked, in the face of the thousands of starfish that would wash up, whether he really made a difference, he would reply: “I make a difference to the ones I throw back.”

“I cannot save the world or make everything better,” Dimakou admits, “but I can affect the things around me. If everyone does this then the world becomes better. And we become better.” In legalese her starfish are known as “unaccompanied minors” and no one can be sure how many of them there are. It is the responsibility of officials from the Greek police and the European borders agency, Frontex, to ensure that all under-18s who arrive are taken into care if they are found to be without a parent or relative. The reality is that since the surge began earlier this year only a fraction of the true number of lost children have been caught in this shredded safety net.

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