May 312026
 


Jackson Pollock Number 31 1949


Intercepted Iranian Missile Injures 5 Americans At Kuwaiti Air Base (ZH)
Global Oil Reserves Fall At The Fastest Rate In History (Snyder)
Forced To Correct Lies About AfD Leader Alice Weidel, Pay Her Legal Fees (RMX)
Euroclear Appeals Immediate Enforcement of $256 bln Central Bank Ruling (TASS)
Ukraine Killed 21 Russian Students And Lied About It (RT)
Putin Has Countermanded Lavrov and The General Staff (Helmer)
Congresswoman Wants Democrats Aiding Cuba To Be Investigated For Treason (JTN)
Trump’s USDA is Making America’s Fabric Great Again (JTN)
Why The SAVE Act Matters (Stu Cvrk)
Cuba Falling: A Most Unusual Meeting (Sarah Anderson)
Court Halts Kennedy Center Construction and Name Change (Turley)
Crypto And AI Could Be Dirty Words On 2026 Midterm Campaign Trail (CT)
A New Special Interest Coalition for ’26 and ’28, Datacenters (CTH)

 


 

https://twitter.com/JasonJournoDC/status/2060484422650966145?s=20 https://twitter.com/Real_RobN/status/2060054925938458941?s=20 https://twitter.com/DrJStrategy/status/2060507372359942401?s=20 https://twitter.com/GreereMedeea/status/2060415940953551353?s=20

 


 


Iran today.

Intercepted Iranian Missile Injures 5 Americans At Kuwaiti Air Base (ZH)

A Saturday message and warning from Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters via Al Jazeera: “The management of the Strait of Hormuz is exercised with full authority by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” It added that “all ships, commercial vessels and tankers are only required to travel through the designated routes and obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.” So despite President Trump’s latest warning which declared strict conditions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran appears to be completely brushing his words aside, and is moving closer to formalizing its authority over vital energy shipping waterway.


State-run Nour News is reporting that a bill outlining Tehran’s role in managing passage through the strategic waterway has been finalized and is expected to be brought to a vote soon. According to Bloomberg, Iranian lawmaker Alireza Salimi did not provide a specific timeline for the vote but said the legislation is on track to become law. Salimi said that “only Iran and Oman can decide on Strait of Hormuz management” – adding that “the Omani side has given preliminary approval” to Tehran’s plan. He further emphasized the strategic importance of Hormuz, declaring that “the Strait of Hormuz is more important and more valuable to the Islamic Republic of Iran than dozens of nuclear bombs.”

Previous comments by Salimi indicate the bill would cover shipping security, the collection of navigation and environmental pollution fees, as well as the creation of a regional development and progress fund – all of which critics have dismissed as but Tehran’s ruse to collect what is in effect a “toll”. The legislation is expected to undergo review by Iran’s Guardian Council, which is responsible for vetting and approving all laws before they take effect.

More Reported US Drones Destroyed
Reports of more MQ-9 Reaper damage or destruction have emerged; however, the Pentagon has not verified this, and is not expected to. This along with the past week of ‘live-fire’ tit-for-tat incidents suggests an escalating situation, even as the warring sides try to get back to the peace negotiations table. It looks like it could be related to the Saturday missile attack on a US base in Kuwait, but details are murky. Per DropSite:

• Unfreezing of Assets & Sanctions

• Nuclear File

“So far, there is no timeframe. However, we know that the negotiations are still continuing. The agreement, according to Iranian officials here, is not finalised yet. Proposals and messages are being exchanged through Pakistani mediators and some other regional players as well,” the report says. Per AJ: The Iranians, while saying that it is not finalised, have largely agreed on many items. However, there are still some sticking points. Finally, the Iranians are quite clear at this stage. They are saying that they are not discussing the nuclear file or nuclear programme unless confidence-building measures are put in place. Only if the first phase is successful will they be open to discussing their nuclear programme. These confidence-building measures have been precisely identified as the unfreezing of billions in assets held aborad.

New Iranian Attack on US Base in Kuwait
An Iranian Fateh-110 short-range ballistic missile targeted Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base, a key operational hub for the U.S. Air Force’s expeditionary forces in the Gulf region. An initial report from Bloomberg News indicates that Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted the tactical ballistic missile in the last 24 hours, but falling debris struck part of the base, injuring five Americans and damaging one MQ-9 Reaper drone while severely damaging another. About five people, including both contractors and active duty personnel, suffered minor injuries, the person said. One Reaper was destroyed and at least one other was seriously damaged. -BBG

News of the strike on ASAB, where the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing under U.S. Air Forces Central acts as a forward logistics, airlift, and combat-power gateway for the broader CENTCOM theater, comes as the US and Iran on Friday reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and restart nuclear negotiations. However, the proposal still requires final approval from President Trump, according to U.S. officials cited by Fox News.

Read more …

US produces its own.

Global Oil Reserves Fall At The Fastest Rate In History (Snyder)

No matter what happens now, the world is facing a very painful energy crisis. Let’s be as wildly optimistic as we possibly can and assume that Iran agrees to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz with absolutely no tolls or restrictions starting tomorrow. Before normal traffic through the Strait could resume, Iran would first have to remove all of the mines that they have laid in the Strait, and that could take months. Once all of the mines have been removed, it will take the tankers that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf weeks to arrive at their destinations. Moving forward, Persian Gulf countries will be exporting much less oil and natural gas for the foreseeable future because of all the oil and natural gas infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed during the war. It will take years before all of that infrastructure is fully repaired and rebuilt. Meanwhile, global supplies of oil and natural gas will be very tight for an extended period of time..


What I have just laid out for you is the best case scenario. Ultimately, what we end up facing could be so much worse. Over the past couple of months, global oil reserves have been falling at the fastest rate ever recorded… Record inventory draw: Global oil stocks have fallen by 246 million barrels in March-April, with draws in May hitting a record 8.7 million barrels per day. Hormuz closure impact: The Strait of Hormuz shutdown has cut off 25% of the world’s seaborne oil, compounding already low reserves and boosting prices. US price outlook: Analysts expect U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 this summer unless flows resume, with relief unlikely before autumn. Needless to say, this is not sustainable.

Here in the United States, the strategic petroleum reserve has been dropping at a record-breaking pace… The SPR’s most recent drawdown, covering the week ended May 22, shows a drop of 9.1 million barrels, leaving the reserves at 365 million barrels. The previous weekly drawdown, covering the week of May 15, was its steepest on record — the U.S. withdrew 9.92 million barrels from the SPR then. Before that record-breaking decline, the largest weekly drop in the SPR’s history occurred in the week ended Oct. 7, 2022, when the reserves dropped by 7.41 million barrels, and was connected to the war in Ukraine. Commercial oil inventories are being rapidly depleted as well.

At some point the tanks are going to hit minimum operating levels and we are going to have an enormous crisis on our hands. The chief economist at Capital Economics is projecting that commercial oil inventories “could reach critically low levels by the end of June”… “At the current pace of drawdown, commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June,” Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on May 18. If supply conditions don’t improve soon, “prices could rise sharply,” Shearing warned. Jeff Currie is warning that Asia is already very close to minimum operating levels, and he is projecting that the U.S. could potentially be dealing with shortages in July…

Oil markets are nearing minimum operating levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday, underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war.Headline global inventory figures can be misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of Abaxx Markets. A large portion of that oil is needed to keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore.

This is really happening.

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“When “blatant falsehoods are being spread, one cannot let them stand unchallenged,” says Weidel’s spokesman”

Forced To Correct Lies About AfD Leader Alice Weidel, Pay Her Legal Fees (RMX)

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the anti-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has successfully sued the Left Party leader and won a retraction after she spread falsehoods about Weidel on live television. In mid-May, Ines Schwerdtner, the federal chairwoman of the Left Party, claimed during an interview on Welt TV that Wediel neither resides in Germany nor pays taxes. “Alice Weidel doesn’t even live in Germany, she doesn’t pay taxes here,” she told viewers. This statement is false. While Weidel spends much of her time with her family in Switzerland, she has her primary residence in Germany and pays taxes in the Federal Republic of Germany.


Weidel has been very guarded about the issue over the years, as she faces a high threat level and avoids appearing in public due to the security threat she lives under. Weidel’s lawyers explained in a warning letter, cited by Junge Freiheit, that this claim was false, as their client both lived in Germany and paid taxes. The law firm Höcker filed a lawsuit on the AfD’s behalf seeking an injunction. Weidel’s lawyers also demanded that Schwerdtner ensure the relevant passage was deleted from Welt TV’s programming. Furthermore, the lawsuit calls on the Left Party leader to acknowledge the “claim for damages.”

Following this, Schwerdtner’s lawyer sent a letter to the Höcker law firm stating that their client had “indeed made a mistake.” The Left Party leader additionally undertook to “refrain” from making the false statement that Weidel does not pay taxes in Germany. The letter also pointed out that the interview in question on Welt TV had since been deleted by the broadcaster. Furthermore, Schwerdtner stated that she would transfer the legal fees “within one week.”

Weidel’s press spokesman, Daniel Tapp, told JF that in politics one “shouldn’t be too sensitive in principle.” However, when “blatant falsehoods are being spread, one cannot let them stand unchallenged.” The AfD has been surging in the polls, with one survey last week showing it hitting a record 42 percent in Saxony, double the support of the second-place Christian Democrats (CDU). A poll in May showed the AfD at 29 percent at the national level, while the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) fell to 22 percent.

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How to bankrupt Belgium?

Euroclear Appeals Immediate Enforcement of $256 bln Central Bank Ruling (TASS)

Euroclear has filed a complaint with the Moscow Arbitration Court against the immediate enforcement of a ruling to recover 18.2 trillion rubles ($256 bln) under a lawsuit by the Central Bank, a source familiar with the proceedings told TASS. According to the source, the complaint against the immediate enforcement of the ruling to recover funds under the Bank of Russia lawsuit was filed this week.


In December 2025, the Bank of Russia filed a lawsuit against Euroclear in the Moscow Arbitration Court for 18.2 trillion rubles ($256 bln), amid the European Union’s plans to use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine. This amount includes frozen funds, the value of blocked securities, and lost profits. At the request of the Central Bank, the court closed the proceedings on the regulator’s lawsuit against the Belgian depository to the public. The Bank of Russia stated that the procedure for enforcing the court ruling using the defendant’s assets, including those located in foreign jurisdictions – both friendly and unfriendly – will be determined after the court’s decision enters into force.

On May 20, 2026, the Bank of Russia filed a motion with the Moscow Arbitration Court to immediately enforce the judgment in the 18.2 trillion ruble ($256 bln) lawsuit against Euroclear. The Bank of Russia is also considering the possibility of protecting its interests in international courts and arbitration tribunals, with subsequent enforcement of the decisions of such courts in UN member states. The EU and G7 countries have frozen approximately €300 billion of Russian assets. Approximately €180 billion is held in the Belgian depository Euroclear. The European Commission is seeking approval from EU member states to use Russian assets for Ukraine. However, the EU has failed to agree on a “reparations loan” to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets.

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“In preparation for the funeral, relatives brought numerous wedding dresses to the local morgue: the young women killed in the strike were to be buried in them.”

Ukraine Killed 21 Russian Students And Lied About It (RT)

A Ukrainian drone raid last week devastated a college dormitory in Starobelsk, in Russia’s Lugansk People’s Republic, killing 21 students – most of them young women – and injuring dozens others. The attack was a deliberate “double-tap” that included two more waves of drones targeting civilians and first responders who raced to the scene, according to Russian officials. Russia branded the raid a “terrorist attack” and a blatant war crime. Horrific footage from the scene backed up the accusations.


However, speaking at an emergency UN Security Council session, Ukrainian envoy to the UN Andrey Melnik dismissed Moscow’s account, denigrating a “so-called incident” in Starobelsk as “a fake story” and accusing Russia of spreading “yet another propaganda narrative.” Kiev’s General Staff separately claimed its forces had targeted a command post of the elite Rubicon drone unit – an allegation for which reporters who visited the scene found no supporting evidence. Here is what Ukraine and the West do not want you to know about the Starobelsk tragedy.

What really happened in Starobelsk? RT senior correspondent Murad Gazdiev was among the first journalists to reach the site, reporting from the scene throughout the two-day search-and-rescue operation. The most horrific thing when he arrived was “children still screaming under the rubble.” According to Gazdiev, blood-stained blankets were visible in the hallway where first responders pulled out the dead, and the ground was littered with students’ belongings and books.

Who was killed by Ukraine in Starobelsk? Among those trapped was 19-year-old Dasha Serdyuk. In her final moments of life, she filmed herself and sent a short video to her friend Nastya in St. Petersburg, pleading for help. Dasha had reportedly dreamed of becoming a kindergarten teacher and had only one year of studies left. An eyewitness described watching a girl sprint from the building mid-attack, telling local media that she managed to leave the dorm but was killed by the blast wave outside.

Another victim, identified by the Mash outlet only as Anya, also tried to flee during the strike but was killed by the second drone barrage. An unnamed relative interviewed by the channel said that her body was so severely burned that family members could identify her only by her necklace and earrings. Anya is said to have been due to be married in the summer and is survived by her mother, grandmother, and 10-year-old sister. Olga Vasilenko, a mother of Anastasia, an 18-year-old student at the college also killed in the strike, recalled, as cited by several Russian media: “She called me in the evening, saying: ‘Mom, we’re being bombed’. And then she stopped answering my calls”.

Russia’s human rights commissioner, Yana Lantratova, published photos of all 21 victims – some just 18 years old – offering condolences. “It’s impossible to imagine the pain of a parent who has lost the dearest thing in life – their child,” she said.

There have been no videos from the scene suggesting even the slightest sign of military-related activity. “There wasn’t even a hint of military personnel here. It was a targeted attack on children,” Roman Antonov, a local firefighter, told RT in the aftermath of the strike. A video shared by Mash made before the strike shows students doing what students do – dancing, laughing, and having fun, with some seen washing floors in the dormitory. In the days that have followed, residents, relatives of the dead, survivors, and college staff brought flowers and stuffed animals to the ruins. Churches in Starobelsk have held numerous services for the dead and prayers for the wounded.

A harrowing video has surfaced on social media, reportedly of parents identifying the bodies of their children, with audible, desperate screams. In preparation for the funeral, relatives brought numerous wedding dresses to the local morgue: the young women killed in the strike were to be buried in them.

The death of 21 young people prompted a desire for revenge within the Russian military, with one drone operator filmed inscribing ‘Starobelsk’ on an attack UAV before launching it towards Ukrainian armed forces positions. Russia has maintained it targets only military-related sites.

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Helmer and PCR are in their 80s. Is that why?

Putin Has Countermanded Lavrov and The General Staff (Helmer)

President Vladimir Putin has ordered his two spokesmen, Dmitry Peskov and Yury Ushakov, to deny Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statement that the General Staff has been authorized to escalate war operations to regime decapitation in the Ukraine. On Monday evening, May 25, Lavrov telephoned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and told him he was speaking for Putin: “On behalf of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin,” the readout said, “S.V. Lavrov officially brought to the American side information that in response to the ongoing terrorist attacks of the Kiev regime against the civilian population and civilian objects on the Russian territory, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation begin systemic and consistent strikes on the facilities located in Kiev, used for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and on the relevant decision-making centres.”


Lavrov was repeating the new phrase, “systemic and consistent”, which his ministry had published in reverse order four hours earlier. Russian “patience is exhausted,” the ministry had declared. “In this situation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are beginning to launch consistent and systemic strikes at enterprises of the Ukrainian defence industry in Kiev, including specific facilities for designing, manufacturing and programming drones and preparing them for operation…We are urging residents of the Ukrainian capital not to approach facilities of the military and administrative infrastructure of the Zelensky regime.”

The Russian statements followed the strike over Saturday night-Sunday morning (May 23-24) by an Oreshnik missile on the Bela Tserkva airbase, south of Kiev, which doubles as an underground drone factory and a military command-control bunker. Click for a summary of local and Russian reporting of the targets. The Oreshnik failed, according to Moscow sources. No high-ranking casualties have been reported by either the Russian or Ukrainian media; there has been no evidence of emergency ambulance movements and medical evacuation flights taking high-ranking casualties to hospitals in Poland, Germany, or the US. There was a reported surge of medevac flights from Rzeszow, but that occurred on May 22, before the Oreshnik strike on Bela Tsekrkva.

Surface damage at Bela Tserkva recorded on social media shows no greater damage than earlier drone strikes at Bela Tserkva last August. Former president and deputy head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev called the Oreshnik, Iskander, Zircon and Kinzhal missile operation, including the Kiev city targets hit, a success in a strategy of persuading Ukrainian hearts and minds; this has not been publicly declared as a war aim by the Security Council before. “The ruins and gray ash on the site of their capital symbols,” Medvedev claimed, “demoralize the enemy no weaker than the loss of the battle banner.”

Lieutenant General (retired) Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, repeated that the weekend strikes were a new operational initiative. But he qualified the targeting: the aim, he said, is not the Ukrainian parliament Verkhovna Rada but instead “decision-making centres [which are] underground fortified [military] command and control centres…you need to understand that they are not located in the centre of Kiev. These are hidden, well-fortified points. And our task is to identify them and expose them with the help of existing weapons.”

Kartapolov added that the decision on whether this new decapitation operation now extends to Vladimir Zelensky is made by “only one person – our Supreme Commander-in-Chief”. About Putin’s decision — signed, suspended, postponed, canceled — Kartapolov said he preferred “not to engage in speculation”. This was published on the afternoon of Tuesday, May 26. Putin had decided already to announce he didn’t mean decapitation at all.

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A Cuban with a Greek name.

Congresswoman Wants Democrats Aiding Cuba To Be Investigated For Treason (JTN)

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis also said she believes it was possible the U.S. military would conduct an operation to capture Raul Castro and extradite him into the United States


Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, a prominent Cuban-American who represents New York in the U.S. House, tells Just the News she wants the FBI to investigate Democrats and liberal groups helping Cuba evade U.S. sanctions for the lone crime America’s founding fathers explicitly identified in the Constitution. “Look, I personally, think they need to be investigated for treason,” Malliotakis said during a wide-ranging interview with the John Solomon Reports podcast. “I think that they really need to be investigated by Treasury, also by Justice.”

The New York Republican was reacting to an admission by Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., that she recently took an official government trip to Havana and also talked to foreign countries about finding a way to get oil to Cuba around US sanctions and a naval blockade. Malliotakis said she wants to see the House ban the use of tax dollars to make such trips to foreign enemies’ soil. “What we need to do is ensure that none of these congressional delegation trips that are funded by the taxpayers go to actually visit our adversaries and undermine our government,” she said.

“They go and actually meet with the communist regime at your expense as taxpayers to try to undercut what the president is trying to do,” she added. “And by the way, it’s not just hurting, you know, our government. You’re actually hurting the Cuban people. You’re actually supporting a regime that starves its people to death, that has made their lives miserable for 67 years, and has killed their family members and have split up their family members.” Malliotakis, whose mother fled from Cuba during the Castro regime, has long been a fierce critic of the Communist-run government on the island.

She applauded the Trump Justice Department’s decision last week to indict 94-year-old Raul Castro, the former Cuban president, in connection with the fatal shooting down of two American planes in 1996. Malliotakis said she believed it was possible that the U.S. military would eventually conduct an operation to capture Castro and extradite him into the United States to face prosecution like it did with Venezuelan strongarm man Nicolas Maduro in January.

“I think a lot of people looking at the situation are thinking that the U.S. armed forces will go in and get Raul Castro, just like they did Nicolas Maduro,” she said. “You do see ships building up not too far from Cuba’s shores, and you know it is number one a national security issue.

“It is time, No. 1, to push for regime change, and I think that this indictment of Raul Castro gives the Cuban government two options: you either leave the island and allow the people to form political parties, to have free and fair elections to allow them to express themselves without fear of going to jail or being beaten or even killed by their government, and or you will see something like what took place in Venezuela for Nicolas Maduro,” she added.

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“Cotton is a cultural icon, built into American DNA”

Trump’s USDA is Making America’s Fabric Great Again (JTN)

In years past, the U.S. was referred to as “King Cotton” for its prodigious output of the fiber wanted by the rest of the world. The “Plant Not Plastic” initiative may see a rebirth of that sentiment. On Thursday, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced The Great American Cotton Plan, an effort to help revitalize the nation’s cotton-producing industry to move Americans back toward wearing natural fibers as opposed to plastic materials and other pontially toxic fibers. Launched as a cornerstone of the plan to restore domestic textile manufacturing, the “Plant Not Plastic” initiative urges American consumers to choose products made with natural, U.S.-grown cotton over petroleum-based synthetics like polyester.


Working in partnership with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the campaign highlights cotton’s superior breathability, biodegradability, and reduced microplastic shedding—addressing growing concerns about synthetic fibers releasing thousands of plastic particles annually into the environment and potentially into our bodies. By elevating demand for American cotton through education, procurement incentives, and alignment with t he bipartisan Buying American Cotton Act, the initiative simultaneously boosts rural economies, restores domestic textile manufacturing, and advances the Trump administration’s MAHA goals of practical, preventive wellness through everyday choices.

American cotton is key to avoiding human rights abuses
Cotton from many foreign countries, particularly in the global supply chain, has been linked to significant human rights abuses. Concerns include widespread child labor, such as children aged 6–14 working long hours in India’s cottonseed farms.

The underage workers often face pesticide exposure, as well as forced labor involving Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang region and past cases in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In 2011 Bloomberg News sent investigative reporters out to the fields in the west African country to see for themselves how the daily abuse of children results in the “fair trade” fabric used for Americans’ favorite panties and bras. Workers frequently endure debt bondage, minimal or no pay, hazardous conditions, and government or employer coercion. The U.S. Department of Labor flags cotton from several nations for these risks. Ethical sourcing and better traceability are essential to reduce such exploitation.

Natural fibers used to be the norm
Today, approximately 70% of materials are derived from synthetic fibers, with polyester being the most prevalent. But that hasn’t always been the case. For millennia, humans relied exclusively on natural fibers—cotton, wool, silk, linen, and hemp—for clothing and textiles. These materials dominated until the early 20th century. The shift began with rayon (viscose), the first semisynthetic fiber, commercialized around 1905–1910. True synthetics arrived with nylon, introduced by DuPont in 1939, revolutionizing stockings and apparel during WWII. Polyester followed in the 1940s–50s, prized for durability and low cost. Acrylic and spandex soon expanded the range. B

y the late 20th century, synthetic blends dominated global production due to affordability, performance, and scalability. Today, a mix of natural and synthetic fibers prevails, balancing tradition with modern demands for stretch, wrinkle resistance, and sustainability. In 1989, trade association Cotton Incorporated launched its iconic “The Fabric of Our Lives” advertising campaign on Thanksgiving Day. The memorable jingle—“The touch, the feel of cotton, the fabric of our lives”—was first performed by Richie Havens. Aimed at countering synthetic fibers, the campaign celebrated cotton’s natural comfort, softness, and place in everyday American life. It became one of the most successful and long-running textile ads, boosting cotton’s market share and cultural resonance for decades.

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Thorough.

Why The SAVE Act Matters (Stu Cvrk)

American self-governance rests on one indispensable foundation: that elections reflect the will of eligible citizens, counted accurately, administered transparently. Republicans and election integrity advocates argue that this foundation has been progressively undermined – not necessarily by a single grand conspiracy, but by a systemic pattern of loosened safeguards, dirty voter rolls, exploitable mail-ballot systems, and aggressive Democrat opposition to the audits and reforms that would resolve public doubt once and for all.

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act – which polls at roughly 80 percent public support – would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. To its advocates, it is the minimum logical response to documented vulnerabilities in the registration and voting system. To its opponents, it is voter suppression. The fight over that characterization is itself a revealing indicator of where the parties stand on the fundamental question: do you want to know, or don’t you? And why! Let’s examine the subject in some detail. Note: the below analysis was written from a Republican/election-integrity-advocate perspective. Where allegations are unconfirmed or contested, they are labeled as such.

Part I: Confirmed And Documented Problems

1. Dirty Voter Rolls – A National Scandal The evidence that American voter rolls are riddled with ineligible registrations is not in dispute. The only dispute is over whether they should be fixed. The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, under Assistant AG Harmeet Dhillon, reviewed voter rolls from just 16 voluntarily cooperating Republican-leaning states and found tens of thousands of apparent noncitizens and hundreds of thousands of dead people still registered to vote. The administration subsequently sued 29 states – including blue-state heavyweights California and New York, and swing states Arizona and Georgia – to compel production of voter roll data under the National Voter Registration Act and the Help America Vote Act.

In California, a review of voter rolls found registrations tied to P.O. boxes and individuals listed as 125 years old. In Colorado, a lawsuit forced the purge of 372,000 ineligible registrations. In Michigan, dead voters have been documented – some of whom show records of in-person voting after their deaths. In Oregon, similar anomalies have been reported. Judicial Watch has documented tens of thousands of names removed from rolls in multiple states, often only after litigation – raising the obvious question of why states resisted cleanup in the first place.

The consistent pattern: Republicans seek cleanup to remove any possibility that unauthorized people are voting in elections through fraud associated with ballot harvesting. Democrats sue to prevent it for the purposes of preventing disenfranchising eligible voters (with the unspoken reason to enable Democrat ballot harvesting).

2. Noncitizen Voting – Prosecuted Cases Noncitizen voting is not a hypothetical. It is documented, prosecuted, and ongoing. In Philadelphia, ICE and the FBI arrested Mahady Sacko, an illegal alien from Mauritania, for voting in seven federal elections dating to 2008 – despite a 2002 removal order. In Coldwater, Kansas, Mayor Joe Ceballos – a legal permanent resident from Mexico – resigned and faced charges after voting in multiple elections. These are not isolated cases; they are confirmed examples of a vulnerability that Republicans argue the SAVE Act would directly address.

3. Mail Ballot Fraud – A Proven Mechanism Democrats and their media allies spent years insisting mail ballot fraud is vanishingly rare. The prosecution record tells a different story – of widespread, real, and exploitable vulnerabilities (over 1400 cases in this database).

In Pennsylvania, a grand jury indicted three Democrats – Mohammed Nurul Hasan, Mohammed Munsur Ali, and Mohammed Rafikul Islam – for attempting to steal the 2021 mayoral election in Millbourne. Using Pennsylvania’s online voter registration portal (PAOVR), they changed the registered addresses of nearly three dozen non-residents to Millbourne addresses, requested mail ballots on their behalf, filled them out, and submitted them. The system’s vulnerability: anyone with basic personal information about a voter could modify that voter’s registration and divert their ballot to any address in the world. The candidate lost anyway – but the mechanism worked. The “safeguards” the AP assured voters existed did not stop it.

In Minnesota, a duo pleaded guilty to flooding an election with fraudulent ballots. In Connecticut, a state employee was arrested for switching Republican voters’ registrations to Democrat without their knowledge. Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight organization was forced to pay the largest campaign finance violation fine in Georgia history.

4. ActBlue – Active Congressional Investigation With Significant Red Flags This is not an allegation. This is an active, documented federal investigation backed by congressional subpoenas. The House Judiciary, Oversight, and Administration Committees released a joint interim report in April 2026 finding that five current and former ActBlue employees – including its general counsel (fired), legal department personnel, and VP of customer service – collectively invoked the Fifth Amendment 146 times during depositions. Not once or twice. 146 times. Not a single substantive question was answered.

The report also found that ActBlue made its fraud-prevention rules more lenient twice during the 2024 election cycle, and that internal training materials directed fraud-prevention staff to “look for reasons to accept contributions” rather than scrutinize them. The entire legal and compliance team – every member – had resigned, been fired, or gone on extended leave by March 2025, in the months immediately following the election.

The New York Times – not a right-wing outlet – reported on the foreign donation concerns. Former Biden White House Counsel Dana Remus, working at ActBlue’s law firm Covington, reportedly warned that ActBlue’s CEO may have misrepresented facts to Congress. House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan summarized the irony: Democrats spent a decade accusing Trump of foreign campaign collusion. The evidence of foreign money flowing into Democrat fundraising infrastructure is now the subject of formal congressional investigation.

Fulton County has become the symbolic epicenter of 2020 election integrity concerns, and for documented reasons.

In January 2026, the Georgia State Election Board revealed that investigators could not locate a single “zero tape” from Fulton County’s 148 early voting machines from the 2020 general election. Zero tapes are the legal documents that certify each ballot tabulator began counting at zero – preventing pre-loaded votes or test data from being counted as real votes. Their absence does not prove fraud. But their absence also cannot be explained away. A December 2025 admission by Fulton County’s attorney confirmed that more than 100 tabulator closing tapes – representing roughly 315,000 votes – were never signed by poll workers as required by law.

The week after the State Election Board meeting, the FBI executed a search warrant at the Fulton County election office, specifically seeking the zero tapes. The search warrant itself represents a federal judicial determination that probable cause existed to search. Fulton County has not produced a satisfactory accounting of what happened to these documents.

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Unusual indeed.

Cuba Falling: A Most Unusual Meeting (Sarah Anderson)

There are a lot of stories about Cuba floating around right now. Some are MSM outlets acting like they have a scoop on something that’s been happening or rumored to be happening for months. Some are simply absurd and probably not true. Most aren’t actually verified by the Donald Trump administration and come from anonymous sources. I’m not even going to bother with those today. I saw this happen in the final months before we captured Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. Most of these reporters and media outlets didn’t even care about these countries until they became newsworthy, and once they do become hot topics, they’ll publish just about anything to get clicks. I can’t do that.


But what I can tell you is that what the regime is saying and what’s happening on the ground tell two different stories. Both the “president,” Miguel Díaz-Canel, and the foreign minister, Bruno Rodríguez, have been doing interviews for a month or two now, warning of the United States’ impending military aggression, claiming the people of Cuba will fight the imperialists, etc. In the last week or two, Díaz-Canel claimed publicly that the U.S. “will cause a bloodbath with incalculable consequences.” Most recently, Rodríguez has been going after Marco Rubio with his favorite talking point: Rubio has a personal vendetta against the regime — as if he’s not just one of the millions of Cubans who have seen their parents and grandparents flee the communist s**thole in which they were forced to live. He just happens to be the one with the power to do something about it.

But while these guys are going on all the TV networks yelling about U.S. aggression, on the ground, the regime is actually playing nice with the U.S. because it knows it holds no leverage. On Friday, the most unusual thing happened. United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) Commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan was at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, and he met with Army Corps General, Gen. Roberto Legrá Sotolongo, First Deputy Minister of the Chief of the General Staff, and other senior leaders from the Cuban military at the perimeter of the facility. They even posed for a picture:

According to SOUTHCOM, the visit was “for a brief exchange on operational security matters. Gen. Donovan also led a perimeter security assessment of the naval base and discussed force protection, safety of service members and their families, and operational readiness with base officials.”

Keep in mind that the regime considers our base at Guantanamo Bay an illegal occupation. This extremely rare, high-level face-to-face meeting was described as “positive” by both sides. The Cuban Ministry of Defense said in a statement, “Both delegations considered the meeting to be positive, where issues related to security around the dividing perimeter of the military enclave were addressed and they agreed to maintain communication between both military commands.”

While some in the MSM are downplaying it, this isn’t something you see every day, but then again, a lot of what we’re witnessing lately is unusual. The regime is doing interviews with the U.S. press, including Fox News. The CIA director is holding talks in (and making threats) in Havana. Cubans standing on rooftops raising U.S. flags or writing “Long live Trump” on building walls without fear.

In the past, low-level “fence line” meetings took place each month between U.S. and Cuban military officials at the naval base, but Trump had them suspended when he took office in 2025. This is not a continuation of that. This is not routine. As I keep saying, we don’t know when or how this will end, but Trump promises that it will soon, that he’ll be the president who finally ends 67 years of communist Cuba. Right now, all of the signs are supporting that. No matter how defiant it acts publicly, the regime knows it’s backed into a corner.

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“The Administration should appeal the decision and may soon be able to resume work on the Center, regardless of its name.’

Court Halts Kennedy Center Construction and Name Change (Turley)

In a ruling Friday, District Judge Christopher Cooper ordered the cessation of all repair plans for the Kennedy Center and the removal of Trump’s name from the building within two weeks. It is a detailed and comprehensive opinion, but I believe that Judge Cooper is wrong on the cessation of repairs. I previously expressed skepticism over the claim that the board could order such a change unilaterally. I have previously addressed the naming controversy, which raised the very issues that Judge Cooper cited in his rejection of the right to rename the Center without congressional approval.


However, the opinion becomes more challengeable when the court addresses the decision to close the Center for two years to carry out major renovations. The opinion is rife with digs at President Donald Trump for his social media postings and his unilateral plan for a ballroom. Judge Cooper editorializes that “Especially after the demolition of the East Wing of the White House— which occurred out of the blue a few months after President Trump pledged that construction would not ‘interfere with’ and would ‘pay[] total respect to the existing building’—there has been understandable concern that the Kennedy Center may be the next target of the wrecking ball.”

Judge Cooper accepts that the Center is long overdue for major renovations and that the Board had the authority to order them. He further rejects the sweeping claims of litigants that Trump was planning to effectively raze the Center: “The evidence before the Court does not demonstrate that the Center is poised for wholesale destruction and rebuilding, à la the East Wing.” However, Cooper rules that the Board could not have given the decision sufficient time or attention in carrying out the plan. He declared that “None of the board members had sufficient information in advance of the March 16 meeting to make a well-considered decision to close the center.”

The court’s tight analysis is lost in supporting the cessation of repairs. While he acknowledges that such repairs have long been planned and studied, he cites differing statements on the plan to continue operations before a later decision to close the Center. The court finds that the record illustrates a failure to fulfill the fiduciary duty of the board and Chair: “Whatever happened during that purported four-month incubation period, Board input was, most evidently, an afterthought. Trustees learned about the plan to close the Center at the same time as the general public, by social media post. Deprived of time and information, they had no meaningful opportunity to consider perhaps the most momentous decision in the Center’s lifetime since it opened in 1971.”

That analysis is heavily laden with assumptions on the lack of consideration of the Board. The same approach could be used to set aside an array of board decisions that do not evidence sufficient concern or scrutiny for the satisfaction of a judge. Judge Cooper seems to recognize how far the court was taking its own authority in countermanding the decision:

“The Court appreciates that, in both the charitable and corporate spheres, board meetings are often scripted affairs… The Court should not be heard to suggest that trustees must scrutinize every piece of prefatory work that has been done, or labor through the night debating the relative merits of their decisions in order to discharge their fiduciary duties— especially where, as here, a board is large and comprised of members who may not be well schooled in the subject matter before them. “ Yet, the court still concludes that this Board “seems to have fallen grossly short of prudent decision-making.” That seems far too subjective and fluid a standard for federal courts to micromanage executive branch decision-making.

For his part, President Trump was equally sweeping and unrestrained in his response. He declared that he would order the Commerce Department to transfer the Center to Congress “so they can make a determination as to what to do with it.” Given that Judge Cooper’s order on the cessation of repairs may be reversed, it is unnecessary unless the naming of the Center is the overriding consideration. In either case, it would make little sense for the Center to be placed under the supervision of Congress. It would be appropriate for Congress to address the naming question as well as potentially being heard on the need for a closure.

In the end, I thought that the court’s cessation analysis conveyed ample reasons, but Judge Cooper himself (and others) may be unhappy with how the decision was made. It is less clear why that should matter. There are ample reasons to close the Center to facilitate what the court acknowledges will be extensive and major renovations. That construction can only be facilitated and expedited if there is not a simultaneous need to keep a substantial part of the Center operating for the public. The Administration should appeal the decision and may soon be able to resume work on the Center, regardless of its name.

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Not sure why Zerohedge runs a May 11 article, but I already formatted it when I saw that, so…

Crypto And AI Could Be Dirty Words On 2026 Midterm Campaign Trail (CT)

The AI and crypto industries have made headlines over the past year thanks to the impressive war chests amassed by corporate political action committees (PACs). Profligate spending during the last federal elections in the US has led to unprecedented policy changes favoring the crypto industry, with indications that a full legislative framework in the form of the CLARITY Act is on its way to becoming law. But this hasn’t endeared the crypto industry to voters. Recent polls from Politico show distrust of the crypto industry, and the electorate isn’t sold on the benefits of AI.


“Voters across the ideological spectrum are raising concerns,” Michael Beckel, director of money in politics reform at Issue One, told Cointelegraph. “Some candidates on both sides of the aisle are trying to harness that frustration and outrage.” According to the recent poll by Public First for Politico, most Americans don’t trust crypto and don’t believe in the benefits of AI.

While Republican voters are somewhat more likely to trust crypto, 47% of Americans overall trust a traditional bank over a crypto platform, while 17% trust a crypto platform as much as a traditional bank. The numbers for AI aren’t great either. Some 43% of Americans overall believe that the risks outweigh the benefits, while 33% believe the inverse.

Currently, most people haven’t heard about the major crypto and AI lobbies. According to Politico, only nine percent have heard of AI Super PAC Leading the Future. Only three percent have heard of pro-crypto PAC Fairshake. That’s not much compared to public awareness of large lobbies like the National Rifle Association or the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, which are practically household names. Still, association with crypto could be a problem. Ohio Republican Representative Jim Renacci told Politico, “I do think if they see somebody is backed by crypto, that’s always going to be a problem, because, let’s face it, the people that I talk to in Ohio, they don’t understand crypto, and most say they’re not comfortable with [it].”

Improving awareness around crypto lobbies may not help them much. Rick Claypool, research director at Public Citizen, told Cointelegraph: “Generally speaking, voters are against corporate money influencing politics.” “Even after Citizens United, the norm had been for big, brand-name corporations not to engage directly. Or when they did engage, they would often contribute through dark money groups that obscure their funding source.” In this regard, the crypto industry’s spending spree in 2024 was somewhat unusual. Major contributors like Coinbase or a16z weren’t shy about the millions of dollars they put into campaigns.

But even then, “the voter-facing message from Fairshake was never about crypto, which voters never really cared about.” Mailers and ad buys reflected the supported candidates’ positions more broadly, or sometimes attacked those of the perceived anti-crypto candidate. Overall, “candidates who are seen as not beholden to corporate interests have an electoral edge,” said Claypool. This was true for populist candidates like US Senator Bernie Sanders and even US President Donald Trump, who claimed during his 2016 campaign that “he was so rich he could not be bought, which is laughable in hindsight.”

If awareness about crypto — and crypto’s concerted efforts to influence policy — increases among the electorate, it may not shake out well. Issue One’s Beckel said, “If voters view an industry as toxic, that can have serious implications for candidates who don’t want to be perceived as too close to a controversial company or industry.”

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If you’re not in the industry or live nearby, how could you know?

A New Special Interest Coalition for ’26 and ’28, Datacenters (CTH)

A few weeks ago, I was having a politics conversation with a tech insider. The issue of datacenters became a focus of the conversation. The first response from him was “this is the issue that might decide 2026 and will certainly decide 2028.” The tech side of the issue is essentially: As 5G wifi was to mobile connectivity, so too are the datacenters the cornerstone of nationwide AI rollout. Eventually, all of the datacenters will interconnect and become part of a massive information system that houses all knowledge, a great digital brain. From that point, engagement with Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems will become like a public utility.


The datacenters themselves can be a hot button issue as their proximity to people creates friction. Battles against datacenters are taking place in rural and non-rural areas alike. With deep pockets and strong national security arguments involving the “AI race,” the technocrats are currently winning the argument. However, as with all special interest issues, the opportunity for political benefit now determines DC advocacy. WATCH:

What are your thoughts on this issue? Is opposition to datacenters strong enough to tilt the outcome of the 2026 midterms? And do you believe 2028 will be determined with this issue at the forefront?

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https://twitter.com/lovetocook12345/status/2060372306308862314?s=20 https://twitter.com/CreasonJana/status/2060427311208386655?s=20

 

 

 

 

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Apr 162016
 
 April 16, 2016  Posted by at 9:24 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


NPC Pennsylvania Avenue storefront view, Washington DC 1921

ECB Sees No Evidence Of Asset Bubbles: Draghi (Reuters)
China Buys ‘Recovery’ With A Record Amount Of New Debt (ZH)
Flood of Chinese Cotton Exports Sends Global Prices Tumbling (BBG)
Greek Banks’ EFSF Notes Eligible For ECB’s QE Purchases (Reuters)
Startup Investors Hit the Brakes (WSJ)
Goodrich Petroleum Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection (WSJ)
Saudi Prince Reiterates Oil Freeze Depends on Others Joining (BBG)
Neoliberalism – The Ideology At The Root Of All Our Problems (Monbiot)
Erdogan and the Satirist: Inside Merkel’s Comedy Conundrum (Spiegel)
March Global Temperature Smashes 100-Year Record (G.)
Pope Francis Flies To Lesbos To Highlight Humanitarian Crisis In Europe (G.)
Pope Francis Visits Lesbos, Frontline Of Europe’s Refugee Crisis (Reuters)
Lesbos Refugee Detention Centre Whitewashed For Pope’s Visit (Ind.)

Apparently not at all worried about credibility, then.

ECB Sees No Evidence Of Asset Bubbles: Draghi (Reuters)

The ECB will continue to do what is necessary to boost inflation and has not seen evidence so far that exceptionally loose monetary policies are creating asset bubbles, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday. Draghi added that the economic outlook for the euro zone faces uncertainty due to risks to growth prospects in emerging market economies, a clouded outlook for oil prices and geopolitical risks. “While accommodative monetary policies over an extended horizon may have unintended consequences for certain sectors in the form of excessive risk-taking and misaligned asset prices, we do not currently see any broad-based evidence of excesses in the behavior of banks and other financial institutions and valuations of euro area asset prices,” Draghi said in a statement. Draghi also repeated the ECB’s forward guidance that the key policy rates will remain at the current or lower levels for an extended period of time, well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

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Over $1 trillion in just one quarter. My comment yesterday: “This is such a contradiction in terms it’s crazy the WSJ prints it: “China’s economy may have stabilized for now, thanks to gobs of new debt..”

China Buys ‘Recovery’ With A Record Amount Of New Debt (ZH)

When China reported its economic data dump last night which was modestly better than expected (one has to marvel at China’s phenomenal ability to calculate its GDP just two weeks after the quarter ended – not even the Bureau of Economic Analysis is that fast), the investing community could finally exhale: after all, the biggest source of “global” instability for the Fed appears to have been neutralized. But what was the reason for this seeming halt to China’s incipient hard landing? The answer was in the secondary data that was reported alongside the primary economic numbers: the March new loan and Total Social Financing report.

As the PBOC reported last night, Chinese banks made 1.37 trillion yuan ($211.23 billion) in new local-currency loans in March, well above analyst expectations, as the central bank scrambled to keep the economy engorged with new loans “to keep policy accomodative to underpin the slowing economy” as Reuters put it. This was up from February’s 726.6 billion yuan but off a record of 2.51 trillion yuan extended in January. Outstanding yuan loans grew 14.7% by month-end on an annual basis, versus expectations of 14.5%. But it wasn’t the total loan tally that is the key figure tracking China’s credit largesse: for that one has to look at the total social financing, which in just the month of March rose to 2.34 trillion yuan, the equivalent of more than a third of a trillion in dollars!

And there is your answer, because if one adds up the Total Social Financing injected in the first quarter, one gets a stunning $1 trillion dollars in new credit, or $1,001,000,000,000 to be precise, shoved down China’s economic throat. As shown on the chart below, this was an all time high in dollar terms, and puts to rest any naive suggestion that China may be pursuing “debt reform.” Quite the contrary, China has once again resorted to the old “growth” model where GDP is to be saved at any cost, even if it means flooding the economy with record amount of debt.

And to put it all together, the PBOC also reported that the broad M2 money supply measure grew 13.4% in March from a year earlier, or precisely double the rate of growth of GDP. This means that it took two dollars in new loans to create one dollar of GDP growth. With China’s debt/GDP already estimate at 350%, how much longer can China sustain this stunning debt (and by definition, deposit) growth continue?

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China has too much steel, too much cotton, and too much of lots of other things.

Flood of Chinese Cotton Exports Sends Global Prices Tumbling (BBG)

China is about to open the floodgates on its huge supplies of cotton, sparking a rout in prices. The country plans to auction about 2 million metric tons from May through August, a government statement showed Friday. That’s almost equal to total shipments expected this season from American growers, the world’s top exporters. The auction sales would represent about 14% of the 13.9-million tons that the U.S Department of Agriculture estimates that China has in its stockpiles. Cotton futures fell the most in six weeks. The price slid more than 7% in the past year in part because the large Chinese inventories curbed overseas purchases from the Asian nation, the biggest consumer of the fiber.

“We knew this was coming, but it’s probably a bit more than what people were expecting” and reduces the country’s import outlook in the near term, Keith Brown, president of brokerage Keith Brown & Co. in Moultrie, Georgia, said in a telephone interview. Adding to the outlook for bigger supplies is favorable growing weather in U.S. cotton areas. Rains in the next few days will boost soil moisture in Texas, the country’s top producer, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Drier conditions will aid planting in the U.S. Southeast, the forecaster said. American farmers are expected to increase plantings in the season that starts in August as low prices for competing crops leave farmers with few options, the USDA projects.

“Any increase in production, as well as any volume pushed out of Chinese reserves, will be added to globally available supply in the coming crop year,” industry researcher Cotton Inc. said in a report this week. “High levels of available supply can be expected to keep downward pressure on prices.” Still, the auction sales come as China’s crop is set to shrink this year to the lowest in more than a decade, USDA data show. That’s reducing global output by more than 16%, the biggest annual slide since at least 1961. As the Asian country depletes inventories, in the “long-run it’s positive,” for prices because it means that there will be less supply further down the road, boosting the outlook for eventual imports, Brown said.

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Draghi buys anything now.

Greek Banks’ EFSF Notes Eligible For ECB’s QE Purchases (Reuters)

The ECB has included European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) notes in its list of eligible securities for purchasing under its so-called quantitative easing program, an ECB spokesperson said on Friday. “Up to 50% of the outstanding amount can be purchased as this is the limit applicable to securities issued by eligible international organizations,” the spokesperson told Reuters. With holdings of more than €30 billion of such notes after rounds of recapitalization, Greek banks stand to make gains on the securities.

Bank shares were rebounding 16.2% on Friday after losses in the previous sessions. “The market jumped on this one-off positive piece of news after days of negativity,” said Eurobank analyst Nick Koskoletos. Banks had not been not allowed to sell the EFSF notes in the market but they repoed them with the ECB to obtain cheap funding. Apart from capital gains, selling a portion of their EFSF notes to the ECB could reduce the amount Greek banks borrow from it.

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The focus on startups and unicorns smells of despair, a last ditch attempt to deny the demise of the economy.

Startup Investors Hit the Brakes (WSJ)

Venture-capital investors hit the brakes on investing in the first quarter, following a funding bonanza the past two years that pushed valuations of once-hot technology startups to soaring heights. Funding for U.S. startups fell 25% from the fourth quarter to $13.9 billion, the largest quarterly decline on record since the dot-com bust, according to data from Dow Jones VentureSource. The numbers of deals also hit a four-year low of 884. The drop threatens to hasten a slump rippling through Silicon Valley that is pushing startups to slash marketing budgets, lay off staff and dial back lofty ambitions. Investors such as mutual funds and big banks that pumped money into startups on the promise of big returns have since retrenched, as a punishing market for initial public offerings has spoiled the runaway optimism.

The sky-high valuations of last year have retreated as a result. In the first quarter, the median value of U.S. startups plummeted to $18.5 million after hitting a peak of $61.5 million in last year’s third quarter. “I think investors are nervous, sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens,” said Brian Mulvey at PeakSpan Capital, which recently raised a venture fund of $150 million. Investors caution the first-quarter data spans a relatively small period and that capital tends to fluctuate widely throughout the year. VentureSource counts funding rounds for U.S.-based companies with at least one venture-capital firm as an investor. It doesn’t include startups only backed by individuals or majority-owned by corporations or private-equity firms. Several other data providers with varying methodologies show less of a decline.

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Commodities break on plunging demand.

Goodrich Petroleum Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection (WSJ)

Goodrich Petroleum filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy Friday with investment firms slated to pick up the pieces, as yet another company sought court protection amid the shakeout in the oil and gas industry. Houston-based Goodrich, an oil and gas producer which struggled to cut its debt as crude prices tumbled, has a deal in place that would erase $400 million in debt from its books through a swap with a group of investors that own bonds the company issued last year. The Goodrich bondholders, who include Franklin Advisors, Penn Capital Management and Jefferies, have agreed to forgive $175 million in debt in exchange for ownership of the company. The deal is part of a larger bankruptcy-exit plan that would pay off or carry over $40 million of higher-ranking senior bank debt and wipe out $224 million in unsecured bonds.

Goodrich’s bankruptcy deal mirrors those proposed recently by other struggling oil producers as the energy slump transforms a U.S. industry once dominated by Texas oil men into one controlled by financial firms from across the nation. Falling oil prices have roiled the industry since the summer of 2014. Since that time, about 60 North American oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy, involving nearly $20 billion in debt, according to the law firm Haynes & Boone. On Thursday, Houston’s Energy XXI filed for bankruptcy to complete a debt-for-equity swap with a group of bondholders that includes Oaktree Capital Management.

Denver-based Venoco filed for bankruptcy last month after striking a deal with Apollo Global Management and MAST Capital Management that will erase nearly $1 billion in debt. Energy & Exploration Partners, Magnum Hunter Resources and New Gulf Resourcesare among other energy companies that have brokered similar deals. The rising number of debt-for-equity swaps is due to lenders’ unwillingness to accept the fire-sale prices that potential buyers are offering for oil assets, according to Ian Peck, head of Haynes & Boone’s bankruptcy practice.

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Orchestrated theater. Too many producers can’t afford a freeze.

Saudi Prince Reiterates Oil Freeze Depends on Others Joining (BBG)

Saudi Arabia won’t restrain its oil production unless other producers, including Iran, agree to freeze output at a meeting this weekend in Doha, the kingdom’s deputy crown prince said. The world’s biggest crude exporter would cap its market share at about 10.3 million to 10.4 million barrels a day, if producers agree to the freeze, Prince Mohammed bin Salman said during an interview on Thursday at King Salman’s private farm in Diriyah, the original home of the Al Saud royal family. “If all major producers don’t freeze production, we will not freeze production,” said Prince Mohammed, 30, who has emerged as Saudi Arabia’s leading economic force. “If we don’t freeze, then we will sell at any opportunity we get.”

At least 15 nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two largest crude oil producers, will gather in Doha on April 17 to discuss freezing output to stabilize an oversupplied market. Prince Mohammed has said Saudi Arabia’s commitment to a production cap would depend on Iran’s participation. Iran’s oil minister has dismissed the prospect of joining the deal as “ridiculous” for now. A Russian official said it was possible to reach a deal in Doha to freeze oil output, regardless of Iran whose crude shipments have risen by more than 600,000 barrels a day this month. That increase has added to the pressure on producer nations to reach an agreement to prop up prices as economies from Venezuela to Nigeria reel from the market rout. The meeting in Doha is only relevant if no deal is reached, prompting a sharp selloff in the markets, according to Ed Morse at Citigroup.

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Promising, but incomplete.

Neoliberalism – The Ideology At The Root Of All Our Problems (Monbiot)

[..] It may seem strange that a doctrine promising choice and freedom should have been promoted with the slogan “there is no alternative”. But, as Hayek remarked on a visit to Pinochet’s Chile – one of the first nations in which the programme was comprehensively applied – “my personal preference leans toward a liberal dictatorship rather than toward a democratic government devoid of liberalism”. The freedom that neoliberalism offers, which sounds so beguiling when expressed in general terms, turns out to mean freedom for the pike, not for the minnows. Freedom from trade unions and collective bargaining means the freedom to suppress wages. Freedom from regulation means the freedom to poison rivers, endanger workers, charge iniquitous rates of interest and design exotic financial instruments.

Freedom from tax means freedom from the distribution of wealth that lifts people out of poverty. As Naomi Klein documents in The Shock Doctrine, neoliberal theorists advocated the use of crises to impose unpopular policies while people were distracted: for example, in the aftermath of Pinochet’s coup, the Iraq war and Hurricane Katrina, which Friedman described as “an opportunity to radically reform the educational system” in New Orleans. Where neoliberal policies cannot be imposed domestically, they are imposed internationally, through trade treaties incorporating “investor-state dispute settlement”: offshore tribunals in which corporations can press for the removal of social and environmental protections. When parliaments have voted to restrict sales of cigarettes, protect water supplies from mining companies, freeze energy bills or prevent pharmaceutical firms from ripping off the state, corporations have sued, often successfully. Democracy is reduced to theatre.

Another paradox of neoliberalism is that universal competition relies upon universal quantification and comparison. The result is that workers, job-seekers and public services of every kind are subject to a pettifogging, stifling regime of assessment and monitoring, designed to identify the winners and punish the losers. The doctrine that Von Mises proposed would free us from the bureaucratic nightmare of central planning has instead created one. Neoliberalism was not conceived as a self-serving racket, but it rapidly became one. Economic growth has been markedly slower in the neoliberal era (since 1980 in Britain and the US) than it was in the preceding decades; but not for the very rich. Inequality in the distribution of both income and wealth, after 60 years of decline, rose rapidly in this era, due to the smashing of trade unions, tax reductions, rising rents, privatisation and deregulation.

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Lots of criticism of Merkel for this, not sure that’s justified. She must be careful when it comes to trumping the law. Let the courts decide. It’s not as if they’ll lock the guy up. Many EU nations have similar antiquated ‘insult to foreign leaders’ laws, by the way.

Erdogan and the Satirist: Inside Merkel’s Comedy Conundrum (Spiegel)

Jan Böhmermann has disappeared. He’s not giving interviews; he’s not answering his phone. Since Monday, he has also gone silent on Twitter, where he is normally extremely active. He has hardly left his home in Cologne in the last few days and he is also now under police protection. He had his Thursday show on the German public broadcaster ZDF cancelled and his Sunday radio show on RBB will likewise not be broadcast this week. It was cancelled last Sunday as well. Böhmermann was already in his home studio ready to record when he realized that he was in no mood to be funny. So he called it off. Friends and acquaintances who have had contact with him in the last few days are worried that he won’t be able to withstand the pressure.

The ZDF satirist is a sensitive person, even if that hasn’t always been part of his public persona. The scandal surrounding the disparaging poem he wrote about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has affected him more deeply than many have realized. Perhaps one has to be vulnerable to emotional pain in order to know how to inflict such pain on others. Two weeks ago, when he was still active on social media, he tweeted out the Beatles hit “The Fool on the Hill.” The song is about a simpleton sitting alone on a hill with a silly grin on his face – and everyone can see that he is a half-wit. It is essentially how people see Böhmermann, and it is how he wanted to be seen: The misunderstood fool. The tweet went out two days after his insulting Erdogan poem was broadcast on his ZDF show “Neo Magazin Royale” and one day after the broadcaster deleted the show from its video hub and distanced itself from Böhmermann’s verses.

And that was just the beginning. Prior to the scandal, Böhmermann had led a niche existence in Germany’s media landscape, but now everybody in the country knows who he is. The 35-year-old has triggered an affair of state, one which has served to demonstrate just how limited Chancellor Angela Merkel’s power really is. And how absurd German law can be. If Böhmermann intended to show just how powerful satire can be, he has been incredibly successful. The Böhmermann scandal is now entering its third week, and only now is it becoming clear just what the five-minute clip has set in motion. It didn’t just shine the spotlight on the Turkish president’s sensitivity and the limits of chancellor’s steadfastness, it has also unsettled all of Germany – a country which normally doesn’t spend much time thinking about satire and art and the freedoms associated with them.

On Friday, the need for doing so became even more apparent. Chancellor Merkel announced that the federal government had granted permission for criminal proceedings to go ahead against Jan Böhmermann under the controversial Paragraph 103 of the German Criminal Code. The law makes it illegal to insult the representatives of foreign countries. The federal government must approve the initiation of Paragraph 103 proceedings.

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These things take much longer to sink in then they do to happen.

March Global Temperature Smashes 100-Year Record (G.)

The global temperature in March has shattered a century-long record and by the greatest margin yet seen for any month. February was far above the long-term average globally, driven largely by climate change, and was described by scientists as a “shocker” and signalling “a kind of climate emergency”. But data released by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shows that March was even hotter. Compared with the 20th-century average, March was 1.07C hotter across the globe, according to the JMA figures, while February was 1.04C higher. The JMA measurements go back to 1891 and show that every one of the past 11 months has been the hottest ever recorded for that month.

Data released released later on Friday by Nasa confirmed last month was the hottest March on record, but the US agency’s data indicated February had seen the biggest margin. The Nasa data recorded March as 1.65C above the average from 1951-1980, while February was 1.71C higher. The World Meteorological Organisation, the UN body for climate and weather, said the March data had “smashed” previous records.

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Let’s see if this is more than just a show.

Pope Francis Flies To Lesbos To Highlight Humanitarian Crisis In Europe (G.)

Pope Francis, widely regarded as one of the world’s greatest defender of refugees, flies into Lesbos on Saturday to highlight the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Europe. The Roman Catholic leader will spend five hours on the island with the Ecumenical head of world Orthodoxy, Patriarch Bartholomew I, and Archbishop of Athens and All Greece, Ieronymos II. Imbued with added urgency on the frontline of the EU’s migrant emergency, the meeting is also being seen as a further warming of ties between the western and eastern branches of Christianity, almost 10 centuries after their bitter split in 1054. The pontiff, who has publicly criticised Europe’s “anaesthetised conscience” on refugees, will go straight to the menacing detention centre above the hilltop village of Moria where more than 3,000 men, women and children are held.

On Friday, just hours before Francis’ scheduled visit, detainees chanted “freedom, freedom” as demonstrators denounced their incarceration. Standing under the razor wire-topped fence, Sham Jutt, a young Pakistani, spoke of the refugees’ plight, saying he hoped the pope could intervene. “We expected a life of hope and now he is our only hope,” said the 21-year-old, adding that he had seen the camp change from being a registration centre to a prison following the controversial pact the EU signed with Turkey to stem the flows. “Now, with this agreement, we are very afraid they will deport us.” Greece’s leftist-led government described Saturday’s visit of religious leaders as “extremely significant”. Lesbos has borne the brunt of the refugee influx with over 850,000 of the 1.1 million Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis who streamed into Europe last year, coming through the island.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras, also due to fly in, was expected to underline Greece’s increasingly fragile situation in talks with Francis. More than 50,000 migrants and refugees have been trapped in the country since Macedonia and other Balkan states cut off the migrant trail by closing borders. Greece has been struggling to house refugees in makeshift facilities even if arrivals have dropped dramatically since the deal came into effect on 20 March. For detainees who have arrived since then, conditions have deteriorated dramatically. Human rights organisations have withdrawn from Moria and other detention centres for fear of being associated with mass expulsions.

Before the church leaders’ visit, authorities had gone out of their way to clean up the camp, whitewashing graffiti-splattered walls, replacing tents with containers, installing air conditioning and taking families out of the overcrowded facility to an open-air holding centre nearby. “In every sense of the word, they have given it a whitewash,” said Jakob Mamzzak, a volunteer from California. “Today we even heard they had given [inmates] clean clothes, let them have their first shower in 25 days and brought them good food when the truth is conditions are inhumane.”

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Taking 10 refugees with him on his way back.

Pope Francis Visits Lesbos, Frontline Of Europe’s Refugee Crisis (Reuters)

Pope Francis arrived on the Greek island of Lesbos on Saturday, turning the world’s attention to the frontline of Europe’s migrant crisis which has claimed hundreds of lives in the past year. Francis, leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics, was scheduled to spend about six hours on the small Aegean island. Based on his schedule, he was to meet 250 refugees and have lunch with eight of them. Hundreds of people have died making the short but precarious crossing from Turkey to the Lesbos shores in inflatable dinghies in the past year, and the island is full of unmarked graves. “This is a trip that is a bit different than the others … this is a trip marked by sadness,” Francis told reporters on the airplane taking him to Lesbos.

“We are going to encounter the greatest humanitarian catastrophe since World War Two. We will see many people who are suffering, who don’t know where to go, who had to flee. We are also going to a cemetery, the sea. So many people died there … this is what is in my heart as I make this trip.” With Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, leader of the world’s Orthodox Christians, and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Francis will visit Moria, a sprawling, fenced complex holding more than 3,000 refugees. “This is an island which has lifted all the weight of Europe upon its shoulders,” Tsipras told Francis at Lesbos airport, where a red carpet was rolled out for the pontiff’s arrival. Greek state TV reported Francis was planning to take ten refugees back with him to the Vatican, eight of them Syrians.

Aid organizations have described conditions at Moria, a disused army camp, as appalling. Journalists have no access to the facility on a hillside just outside Lesbos’s main town of Mytiline, but aid workers said walls were whitewashed, a sewer system fixed and several dozen migrants at the overcrowded facility were transferred to another camp, which the pope will not visit. . Aid organizations say queues for food are long, and people often wait for an hour or more. Saturday’s encounter with refugees would be ‘no frills’ and the religious leaders would eat the same food as everyone else at the camp, an official at the camp told Reuters.

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The Pope should speak out a lot louder and clearer. Meeting a few preselected refugees won’t cut it.

Lesbos Refugee Detention Centre Whitewashed For Pope’s Visit (Ind.)

A detention centre for asylum seekers in Greece is being urgently spruced up ahead of a visit by the Pope as thousands of people remain trapped inside, waiting to find out if they will be sent back to Turkey. Workers were dispatched to whitewash the wall surrounding Moria, a former refugee camp on the island of Lesbos, while others painted fences, cleared litter and moved stray tents. The last-minute efforts on Friday came ahead of Pope Francis’ arrival tomorrow with a delegation of Catholic and Orthodox leaders. Sacha Myers, who is working inside Moria with Save the Children, told The Independent that the now “very white” wall was not a priority for the families living inside Moria. “We hope the improvements continue but they don’t change the fact that we have still got thousands of people locked inside this detention centre with no idea how long they will be here,” she said.

“The camp was built to hold 2,000 people and now there are 2,900. Families are living on top of each other, there is absolutely no privacy. “We’re seeing a real deterioration in conditions.” Ms Myers, a communications and media manager for the charity, said she had met Iraqi and Syrian mothers whose babies were ill with diarrhoea and fever amid declining hygiene. “Some people are aware of the Pope’s visit,” she added. “They really want him to help them and understand their issues.” Save the Children is warning that child refugees are being held in appalling conditions at the centre, where they report illness, fights and theft. Charity workers described dirty rooms without enough beds, where children are denied legal services and basic support despite concerns for their mental and physical wellbeing.

High-profile visits by Angelina Jolie, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Labour MP Yvette Cooper, among others, have done little to improve the situation in Moris. It was set up last year as one of two refugee camps in Lesbos, but on 20 March the gates were locked as it was turned into a detention centre as part of the controversial EU-Turkey deal. The Pope will be joined by leaders of the Catholic and Orthodox churches as he tours Lesbos, which has seen the highest number of refugees arrive out of any island in Europe. After visiting Moria, they will have lunch with refugee representatives and make a joint declaration, before heading to the island’s capital for a prayer service in memory of the many asylum seekers who have drowned attempting to reach Europe.

The Vatican said the five-hour visit to Lesbos was purely humanitarian and religious in nature, not political, and wasn’t meant as a criticism of the deportation programme seeing some asylum seekers sent back to Turkey. Pope Francis said he intended “to express closeness and solidarity both to the refugees and to the Lesbos citizens and all the Greek people who are so generous in welcoming (refugees)”. The pontiff has been outspoken in calls for greater compassion and international co-operation in the refugee crisis, denouncing the “globalisation of indifference” during a trip to Lampedusa – another migrant hotspot.

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