Debt Rattle February 13 2017
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New York City Under 26 Inches Of Snow, 1947 • Why Does Economic Growth Keep Slowing Down? (StLouisFed) • The Market Will Be Repricing Dramatica
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle February 13 2017]“Although population growth has been slowing, the effect is not big enough to change the qualitative results described above.”
There are countries and areas where the population growth is negative.
…. This trend has more positive then negative impact on all life on earth.
Does Stockman forget that without a stimulus the U.S. will be in a “fiscal bloodbath” as well? That is to say, without enormous stimulus we are definitely going to collapse, but with it we only probably will? That prognosis sounds to me like Trump is not especially involved or relevant to the argument here. Unless you think if Sanders or Ryan were in, there could be no stimulus and no collapse with the country gutted and the stock market at 100 year overvaluation. I don’t think he’s disingenuine, but he ought to look at what he’s saying. With a $20T official and probably $200T implied debt, it’s never going to get repaid. That’s because since Reagan, it was never meant to be repaid. By 1986 it was already a given we must default, and that was the path that was specifically chosen, according to Fed Whitepapers, back as far as the 70’s.
So Stockman: it’s not 1980 anymore. You can’t have fiscal austerity unless you want to run like Greece for 100 years. Since we’re going to default anyway, and were always going to since, say 1979, why not try to rack up that last home improvement on the credit card? If we fail, we’ll only go where we were going anyway.
Dr. D,
That’s it. I haven’t seen anything contrary to the proposition that total debt in the economy is supposed to increase faster than total output forever or until the levee breaks.
Decades of disaster: 7 of America’s worst dam failures in recent history (VIDEO)
Strangely enough, in the same year as the Oroville dam was completed, I started by studies in civil engineering at Imperial College. It would seem that not much was done to protect this dam against unexpectedly wet weather since then. They could have improved the slipway and they could have kept it less full if they were expecting too much rain. The fact that neither of these things were done suggests that the politics overrode engineering judgement.
The real problem here is that we have a generation of publicists who believe – I use the word believe in its religious sense – in Global Warming and in eternal drought and similar fantasies. When you start believing in theories that assume that the world was at some sort of constant state and that we have unbalanced it in some way, you are asking for trouble.
Not so very long ago, the city of Brisbane was almost washed away for similar ideological reasons. Fortunately, the dams were better maintained and the weather turned friendly. One million lives could have been lost and the media did an admirable job in protecting the politicians who caused this situation to arise. The culpability of the media is obvious.
Pause-deniers finally get busted by mainstream media
The “permanent drought” in California (plus Australia in 2009) is getting demolished by heavy rain.
Obviously, this rain is not going to solve the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer
Dr. D,
Stockman doesn’t talk about the need to be earning our way, instead of borrowing our way, as Mr. Meijer correctly points out. That’s the crux of the matter. You’re not going to return to a solvent national economy by simply tweaking tax policy or regulations. That won’t be enough.
As I keep saying, earning our way starts with raw materials being priced at parity such that there is enough national income generated through the trade turn for consumers to earn enough to consume their own production. If you don’t do that, you can go without or borrow to consume.
The earned dollar and borrowed dollar look the same. The earned dollar doesn’t have to be paid back. The borrowed dollar does.
Remember, debt means death.
Slow Growth? Perhaps because all the growth that’s been ‘pulled forward’ from the orgy of borrowing over the last 50 years? I wonder if that could be it? The world may be tapped out, kinda like how financing energy these days robs the cradle for everything else.
There is one missing data set from the St Louis Fed charts. The debt levels. Which way do you think they might go?
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