Debt Rattle August 25 2026
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@RIM: “and special guest star, miss Dolly Parton, Now here’s the star of our show, Porter Wagoner!”
Wanda Jackson is 88. Now Hear This: “Fujiyama Mama” 1958 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IStr0Pfm-jk
@Michael Reid: You are welcome, of course. 😉
DBS i asked about your absence and Dr. John kindly offered to send you an email. Good that you are well.
Iran Has Green-Lit 90% Enrichment ,China, Russia Held Emergency Talks in 48 hour of Bessent’s Threat
https://learn.sustainability-directory.com/area/cost-amplification-in-supply-chains/
Cost Amplification in Supply Chains
( Above my paygrade. Claude example)## Steel: a concrete amplification example
Steel is on the list at the new **50% rate** (up from 25%). Here’s how that one number turns into a bigger price increase by the time it reaches a consumer.
Say a Canadian appliance maker buys $1,000 worth of U.S. steel to build a dishwasher.
| Stage | Cost before tariff | Cost after 50% tariff |
|—|—|—|
| Steel input | $1,000 | $1,500 |
| Manufacturer sells to distributor (+20% margin) | $1,200 | $1,800 |
| Distributor sells to retailer (+15% margin) | $1,380 | $2,070 |
| Retailer sells to consumer (+30% margin) | $1,794 | $2,691 |**The tariff itself was 50% ($500). The final consumer price rose by ~50% too ($897) — but the *dollar gap* nearly doubled at every stage** ($500 → $600 → $690 → $897), because each business marks up a percentage of an already-inflated cost. That’s the amplification: nobody in the chain is “overcharging,” they’re each just doing normal markup math on top of a number that’s already too high.
It gets worse for steel specifically because of a second effect: **cross-border round-tripping.** Steel often crosses the border more than once — raw steel goes into Canada, gets stamped into an appliance part, and that part sometimes goes back into the U.S. supply chain (or vice versa) before final assembly. Each crossing risks another tariff hit, so the compounding isn’t limited to domestic markups — it can happen at the border twice.
This isn’t just theoretical: TD Economics found that during the earlier round of tariffs (March–June 2026), < cite index=”68-1″>tariffed goods drove a full quarter of Canada’s total monthly inflation, despite covering only a narrow slice of the import basket</cite> — a small, tariffed category punching well above its weight, which is exactly the amplification pattern the steel example predicts.
———–
We are going to experience a bucket of hurt.Flock Cameras-Mass Surveillance for YOUR own “SAFETY.” The Gov is afraid of YOU. A US Revolt started
## From price hike to demand crash — the chain
**1. Higher price moves buyers down the demand curve.** When that $2,691 dishwasher used to cost $1,794, some previously willing buyers now find it too expensive and simply don’t buy — they either skip the purchase, buy used, or delay. This isn’t unique to steel; it’s just standard price elasticity. But amplification (the compounding through markups) makes the price jump bigger than the tariff itself, so it pushes *more* buyers past their price threshold than a simple 50% tariff would suggest.
**2. Substitution accelerates the drop.** Buyers don’t just disappear — they switch. A Canadian retailer facing pricier U.S. steel appliances can source from South Korea or domestic Canadian steel instead. This is worse for demand than plain price sensitivity, because once a supply chain reroutes away from U.S. steel, it often *stays* rerouted even if the tariff is later removed — contracts, supplier relationships, and shipping logistics don’t snap back instantly.
**3. There’s already a real-world data point for this.** On the U.S. side of this same trade fight: < cite index=”40-1″>the White House attributes a roughly 22% (about $5.6 billion) drop in U.S. vehicle exports to Canada between April 2025 and March 2026 to Canada’s tariffs on U.S. autos</cite>. That’s the demand crash in action — Canadian buyers and dealers substituted away from U.S.-made vehicles once the tariff-inflated price made them uncompetitive.
**4. The crash then feeds back into the broader economy.** This is the part the bank economists are flagging:
– Lower demand → the U.S. steel/appliance producers sell less → they cut production, investment, and jobs
– Fewer jobs and less investment → less income circulating → less demand for *everything*, not just steel goods
– This is exactly what shows up as the GDP drag in the Bank of Canada and Scotiabank forecasts — < cite index=”64-1″>Scotiabank’s modeling puts Canadian GDP roughly 3.8% lower under a 25% tariff scenario</cite>, and that’s before accounting for the amplification effect making the *effective* price shock feel larger than the sticker tariff rate**The key asymmetry:** the tariff creates the price increase in one clean step, but the demand crash and its economic fallout unfold over many steps — substitution, layoffs, reduced spending — which is why the damage shows up gradually over quarters (as the Bank of Canada and PBO reports track) rather than all at once.
———–
## Adding “Buy Canadian” — a second demand shock on top of priceSo far the demand crash was driven purely by price: the dishwasher costs more, some buyers walk away. “Buy Canadian” adds a second, separate force that hits demand even for buyers who could still afford the U.S. product — they’re choosing not to buy it on principle.
**Layer it onto the dishwasher example:**
– **Price effect:** the $2,691 (tariff-inflated) price pushes price-sensitive buyers toward cheaper alternatives.
– **Buy Canadian effect:** even buyers who *could* still afford the U.S. appliance now actively avoid it — retailers flag it as American, and a share of shoppers pick a Canadian or non-U.S. brand out of preference, not affordability. This is a **demand shift that happens independent of price** — it would occur even if the tariff-driven price gap were smaller.**These two effects compound rather than offset:**
– Price pushes people away from the now-more-expensive U.S. good
– Buy Canadian pushes people away from the U.S. good *even when the price gap is small*
– Together they crash demand harder than either effect alone would — the tariff makes leaving easy to justify economically, and the boycott makes leaving easy to justify emotionally/patriotically**Real evidence this isn’t hypothetical:**
– < cite index=”79-1″>U.S. retailers in Canada saw a 3% year-over-year drop in sales penetration, while Canadian discount and mass retail chains gained roughly the same 3%</cite> — a direct one-for-one substitution, not just softer growth
– < cite index=”81-1″>Market data showed roughly a 10% increase in sales for Canadian products in grocery stores</cite> during an earlier boycott wave
– < cite index=”83-1″>U.S. liquor exports fell 3.8% in 2025, partly attributed to Canadian boycott action</cite>, while < cite index=”83-1″>Quebec’s provincial liquor distributor reported 69.4% growth in domestic “Origine Québec” products</cite> — a striking substitution ratio
– < cite index=”86-1″>A majority of Canadians surveyed said they actively support the Buy Canadian movement and support retailers removing U.S. products from shelves</cite>, and unlike a typical boycott that fades, < cite index=”86-1″>Canadians’ resolve has remained strong with no signs of dissipating, reinforced every time new U.S. tariff threats make headlines</cite>**Why this matters for the steel/appliance case specifically:** unlike a grocery boycott (easy — just buy a different brand of pickles), steel is an *input*, not a shelf product consumers see directly. So the Buy Canadian effect works one level upstream — Canadian appliance manufacturers themselves have a reputational and patriotic incentive to source Canadian steel instead of U.S. steel, even before the tariff forces their hand economically. That means the substitution away from U.S. steel likely happens **faster and more permanently** than a pure price-driven model would predict — manufacturers rewire their supply chains for brand/reputation reasons, and (as noted earlier) those rewired relationships tend to stick even if the tariff is later lifted.
**Net effect on the demand crash:** Buy Canadian doesn’t just add to the price-driven drop — it makes the drop **stickier**, because it changes buyer identity and habit, not just their price threshold, and those are much slower to reverse.Creatd Just for laugh. Theres more.from demonflyingfox
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=demon+flying+fox+canadian+resistant+army+video&&mid=0ABEF0684123BB7F5AE10ABEF0684123BB7F5AE1&churl=https%3a%2f%2fwww.youtube.com%2fchannel%2fUCvdUBO1nKje-SqOqBQm1Rmw&FORM=VRDGAR————
@John Day
I didn’t get your email so I’m assuming wrong address. Here’s the one that should do the trick, dbentonsmith@gmail.com .
Now everyone who reads TAE knows where to send the money, compliments and death threats. Freedom of speech.
@tboc I appreciate you guys checking up on my welfare, thank you.
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