In all these articles I see the trend. Easy oil is gone and difficult oil is in fashion.
Since we pluck the easy fruit a new shift happens. Costly oil, oil that requires large amount of energy to remove, costly oil is vulnerable. I develope a world view based on variables. When certain variables grow war becomes more likely until war actually happens for example.
Well in a capitalist economy you have two types of oil uncostly and costly. As both cause an over supply it is an easy battle. Costly oil is only viable at a high price.
It is obvious to me the next variables. After shut downs and cut backs it will be hopelessly difficult for costly oil to find willing investors to take real risk. Previously investors had a steady state long term approach. Now they will know investments must return principle amounts quickly and hope to get return there after. Its a new difficult landscape.
Now I don’t need return on investment. I need my capital back quickly. My capital has to be returned to me before the next downturn in the price of oil. During that downturn I need enough back room deals to protect my returns.
Oil extraction like many others within energy is better suited to government sector than the whims of the market. I think we will see that in the future.
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