Debt Rattle July 20 2026
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July 20, 2026 at 9:02 am #245282
Raúl Ilargi Meijer
KeymasterMarlon Brando screentest 1951 • US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict (ZH) • Trump Has Just Weeks Left to Finish the Iran Conflict (Vic
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle July 20 2026]July 20, 2026 at 9:39 am #245300Dr. D
Participant“We’ve Burned Through All Buffers”: Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes”
Have we? I guess we’ll find out.
There is a TONNNNNN of oil left. There are huge parts of the globe locked in and undrilled. Iran being one. US Arctic. California, known to be leaking oil. Why not Cuba? Why is there limitless oil in the Russian arctic? When did dinosaurs live there?
The entire gulf was oil at 40,000ft with the Deepwater Horizon…but was beyond our capacity to stand the pressure, though obviously endless oil was there, untapped, unpumped. Explain?
We have a FAKE oil crisis. Why is there a shortage? F’n Europe blew up their own F’n pipeline! Why would you DO that? Now they complain about prices! Canada, same. No pipelines in Canada to BC, to America, wherever. Do you hate money? Or just live humans? That’s just here, where we know and prove it; imagine what Africa looks like.
“OIL” …Is not our problem. It’s not even the refinery, Newsom shut down on purpose, though point taken. It MIGHT be a problem, distant someday, but not now. It’s all voluntary, engineered. And this is an important distinction. AOC may claim, Ursula, Starmer, Carney, maybe Exxon does to justify their prices. …But it’s not. They WANT it that way, in oil shortages, or they would FIX it. In 12 months, done.
All Europe has to do to get oil is surrender. They’re not even occupied! Just say “We would like to use oil, please” to Russia, stop choking YOURSELF, pay money, and suddenly Lo! Lots of oil! No shortage at all! Iran or no. If not there, oil flows shift, then not anywhere!
…And that’s the POINT. If EUROPE wasn’t choking off THEIR OWN OIL, then we’d discover the Strait of Hormuz has no power at all. It barely does anyway, so imagine how much less power it would have if Russia was pumping for s—t out of St. Pete and NordStream. IN ORDER TO KEEP IRAN RELEVANT, they have to STOP oil worldwide. On purpose.
Otherwise you’ll all realize it’s a scam. Run by them. On you. The only guy proving that is the villain I guess.
“Germany To Join French Nuclear Exercise, Deepening ‘Counter-Russia’ Deterrence”
Deterrence from what? Stopping Europe’s money laundering?
“US-Iran Tit-For-Tat Spirals Towards Broader Conflict”I mean, maybe? But what do you mean by that? All nations in the Middle East are going to invade all the other nations? Russia invades Turkey? What exactly? I don’t see any of this. While the men and material –MIGHT– exist for the pan-Gulf states to land and occupy the Iranian coast, there don’t seem to be any preparations to do this yet. Likewise, America has nearly nothing to do that with. So “Broader” certainly means “More nations”, but who? Are we forming a new nation in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Oman that can get involved? Ultron is landing Sokovia there? IMPLYING things without details, without THINKING.
“FCC Head Carr Moves To Reshape TV Ownership Rules, Save Local Broadcasting From Being ‘Mouthpieces’”
Trump undoing what Clinton did. Isn’t there a – Sherman AntiTrust Law – or something? Maybe we should pass one. Unfortunately, no one watches TV but maybe they might. Also Sec230 is completely unenforced still.
“The Trump administration has announced a renewed crusade against “far-left terrorism,” which sounds okay if you don’t know that the word “terrorism” only ever means “behavior which goes against the agendas of the western empire.”Sure, except we are ENDING Empire, by 10 different proofs. Update your map for God’s sake. It’s not 1992 with Soviet Russia.
What is “The West”? Yeah, no longer has any meaning at all. Whose “Agendas”? Also don’t know, since there is not One “Elite”, the very fact of daily life is that the “Elites” are in war with each other, so it’s “Against WHOSE agenda”? It’s Against Soros and his french-kissing gay lover, Fox News, who are in a death match with Elon, Trump, Putin, so I am FOR their agenda, let’s pretend. If I’m for Putin, or Putin for me, then I’m against Zelensky, Starmer, Rutte, AOC, Biden, Lindsay, etc. So “Behavior which goes against”…Somebody. We have no idea who. And Some idea…we have no idea what. Riiiiight. All behavior of all humans is against…somebody. Riiiiiight.
Could you be more specific?
There is not all One Club, and I am not in yours either.
“The designation has nothing to do with actual acts of terrorism as the average westerner conceives of that notion”
I agree, but can you be more specific? I was considered a terrorist and an open target for not wearing a mask in 2020. Who is the “Average” here? This goes to courts as well: what is a “Reasonable Juror”? I’ve never met one. What does “A reasonable person say”? Believe? Trust me, if you hit the right issue, they’re not reasonable at all; they’re terrifying.
“Reasonable” Vance thinks there’s demons running all over, and the whole Left thinks that demons are 90% of U.S. citizens. So it’s very malleable. Like “The West”, “Average” does not exist.
Then an article on Vance telling Israel and all her supporters to GFY. Because they’re all one club and “The West” agrees totally…just like Trump and AOC and Biden and Cheney all agree, right? They’re all “The West”. Simple. Vance is FOR Israel because he’s AGAINST them, I guess. Eat the green crayons, not the red ones.
“The US not only pressured allies but reportedly disabled the ship’s GPS access, forcing it to drop anchor for weeks.”
Are you retarded? Why are you a ship captain if you can’t sail THE INDIAN OCEAN by dead-reckoning? This is not a real thing at all, there’s more to the story. Pretty sure you can make it to Thailand without needing further instructions.And that points to Day One I ever heard of GPS: what are you, retarded? Russia knocks out two satellites a minute later absolutely none of your tech works. Not a thing. There’s a level of escalation inherent there, but you see the problem. They’re beating it with several levels of spoofing and jamming instead, and we haven’t seen the USS Cook, Cooked, for many years.
At this point we can probably keep it running even if they shoot it down, but that wasn’t true for decades, a galactic vulnerability.
So yeah, China finally got to sell it to some idiot bureaucrats, who understand nothing about anything, especially tech, BUT are nit-witted pantywaists who don’t like being embarrassed — fake or otherwise. If I were China, I’d pay to ARRANGE such an event.P.S. Russia developed an incredibly sophisticated glide-gyro which has been serving them incredibly well I believe it’s the FAB300s etc and is by definition unjammable. Because unlike us, Russians are not morons. However, we took that idiot risk, and it paid off in spades. This is why I’m not a general. Far too cautious and think too slow.
“while US officials quietly confirmed American casualties at Jordanian bases.”
What does this phrase mean? Did they confirm it or not? Did you want them to take out Superbowl ads with live TV interruptions to crow about how many soldiers Iran killed? What’s the meta assumption here that we failed? If they confirmed it, they did. Okay then, what were you looking for? A brass band?
The crime is not hating the United States enough and not wanting every person in it murdered with a hammer. Even that would BARELY be enough to sate their inexhaustible hatred. Hate: food of the angels, I hear.
“Oil ripped toward $90 with the Strait of Hormuz down to a trickle.”
If I’m not mistaken wasn’t that TRUMP saying he’d charge 20% fees on the Strait? Which he knew would pop oil $10? Maybe this is a second pop. Point of adding that is, if he’s willing to pop the price up on a lark, he ain’t worried.
Note these are all DETAILS. But the details are very, very important right now.
“Alex Krainer has lived in reality. “Natural monopolies” should be public. It’s old news: Is private enterprise best?”
Not necessarily. But over 120 years we’ve already settled the least-bad method of dealing with this tension. We have a regulated public-private partnership that is very open with a public commission and open records. Also, there is no competition even in NON-monopoly areas like power, rail, fiber, etc. So it’s all bulls—t all the way down. I can tell you the law and the theory, and we follow neither. Nor do socialist states. Insider pals gets you free access in Soviet Slovakia, the same. That’s bad, but the same bad. Difference is, there is less pie to share altogether, and that’s the real problem.
“magic of private, free market capitalism took effect”
Yes, except trash is IDENTICAL to, say, police, water, power, and therefore is NOT a free-competition arena, well-known. So he’s using an example that’s not even an example. Yes, they try that s—t here too, and it fails here too, because it’s an insider cartel with government oversight and no competition. Why don’t I ask why street drugs in Russia, 1980 don’t follow Socialism rules? Same thing, that’s not a place where that’s applicable. It’s dum.
“You are selling something literally everyone needs for literally everything they do literally every day and that falls from the sky for FREE. How in the hell are you not making money?”
So say the Banks as well. Who make money 99 or 100 out of 100 days in a row on insider trading. Yet claim they have no money and need a bailout. 1) that’s not Capitalism. 2) That’s not Capitalism. 3) That’s not Capitalism. I’ll let you fill in the details, but what part of “You can never go bankrupt” is Capitalism? Again, not an example. Possibly because he’s pointing to a system – ours – that is hilariously not Capitalism either.
How is it also not Capitalism? IT’S ALL OVERSEEN BY THE GOVERNMENT. Who enthusiastically approved and violently enforced it. So…sharing the loot, I presume? How is a merger of State and Corporation, Capitalism? I say daily?
“Ray McGovern: Iran’s Precision Strikes on Jordan Send Shockwaves Across the Gulf”
Soooo…they’re shocked there’s a war going on? That things can be hit? Fill me in, Ray. Yes, brown people are so dum they don’t know what a “War” is. Pretty sure they knew more than you.
“BREAKING: LARRY & PEPE -China’s 72-HOUR Ultimatum to the US -Fix the Iran DEAL by Monday Or It’s WAR”
Absolutely certain this is false again. Sooo…China is fueling long-range bombers to hit San Diego and warming up their nukes? No? They have 100,000 cargo ships of 1,000 men each poised for invasion. And they’re doing this because they did NOT support Iran – at all – up to now. Riiiiiiight. “We Make S–t Up!”
“A MASSIVE ECONOMIC “STORM IS COMING” – w/ Fmr. Wall Street’s Edward Dowd”
Totally true….but true since 2001, 1994, or 1979, your pick. And so far…? Timing’s a bitch. If you bought the Dow, you beat everyone. And where do you plan to go instead? Germany? Real Estate?

They’re arresting people daily for having them a racism. …By walking in a neighborhood being white. And, you know, getting stabbed by the diversity n’ stuff. So good that there’s a lot of talk about racism.
Good news, Canada:

Bad news: Wearing a Hajib won’t help. But maybe a snowsuit? They have racing sleds, maybe you can outrun them. We get to make fun of that because here in the ‘States no matter what rapes happen, the police will always report the person is white. …Especially Indians. They will often say “Be on the lookout for a dark-skinned white”. What? Remember the last 5 guys they photoshopped white? SMH. Whyyyyyy???
We know that after 250 years, at long last Greeks are white, since they destroy their culture with Nolan’s “Odysseus”, while rejoicing in Moana. And 10 miles away, which race are the Turks? Do they know they are the lesser people who need Great White Karen’s help, whereas the wealthy and prosperous Greeks are so powerful they must be destroyed? …I’ll let you go tell them that. I’ll watch.

“Head of Medical School Tells Congresswoman the Vast Majority of Pregnancies Occur in Women.” — Twitchy
I can’t argue with that. You are totally, totally correct. We are surrounded by geniuses.
July 20, 2026 at 10:00 am #245301Michael Reid
ParticipantThe West’s Biggest MISTAKE | Prof. Alastair Renfrew
July 20, 2026 at 10:31 am #245302Dr. D
ParticipantToday:
“ELON MUSK has surged a whopping $5 million into boosting Ramaswamy”In other news, Ramaswamy has vowed to replace the entire population of Ohio with H1B visa holders.
Shiff, “position of Director of the CIA”
Meta-question: Why the h—l would you want to be Director of the CIA? Sounds like work.
“The US should know who they’re fighting: the Revolutionary Guard or the ayatollahs.”We can’t even get the public to UNDERSTAND that there are IRGC and Mullahs. That’s while we say the exact same thing about the CIA and our Corporations. But what’s true here: factionalism puppeting the government, we’re the only nation on earth with that situation I guess.
And article: What did we hit? We sort of don’t know. Possibly even the Pentagon doesn’t know for sure. I suspect it was very substantial, though. We used very large bombs and everything is near-impossible to hide, with no air defense left at all. I mean: you didn’t hear about any, did you?
““.. and then go home and say to our allies Iran is now mostly inert. They have no air force. You in the Gulf, you have 600 combat frontline aircraft. You have missiles. You have missile defense. ..”
• Trump Has Just Weeks Left to Finish the Iran Conflict (Victor Davis Hanson)VDH has been shocking me daily with his calm competence. Yes I disagree with him on some things, but that’s true of everyone. He’s been very moderately stating obvious facts, which no one else does, even me. My job is to be the Devil’s Advocate and poke at things, not do the backbone work.
““Why didn’t we do that earlier?” Well, we didn’t do it earlier because we were negotiating and we were measured and proportionate.”
I mean, maybe, but the point was to do the minimum to get an MoU, TRY to sign a deal. Imagine if we had just leveled them Day One like this, with no discussion and option. They’d say we were monsters, so it needed to be demonstrated to the world that Iran was actually like this: Iran Bombing everything in Oman, dictating where every ship is allowed to go. And we’re supposed to give them nukes.
And us? Point taken! Yes! But like Israel, WE ALREADY HAVE THEM, so we’d have to un-ring the bell. I’m in favor, but the world seems to want Iran to have nukes and the U.S. to NOT have them. Wtf. Or that we should take them from Israel. Sure! I’m in favor! …So you want us to launch a deadly ground invasion of Israel, attack, conquer and occupy them to get those nukes back? Oh, no: we would be the bad guys if we did that too. So they can’t have them, and they can’t not have them. I want a pony.
So tell me, should we bomb, invade, occupy, and dictate to Israel or not? You like invasions? I thought you didn’t. …Thus the problem with Israel ALREADY having them. It’s a different issue. I would love to take it up but we’re busy right now.
This is realpolitik. Why do we do this? A: BECAUSE WE CAN. That’s it. If you want us not to, raise your own army. Europe wouldn’t float a rowboat, so you get what you get. Stop whining. If you’re actually mad, you can make some guns and do it yourself. They’re not. They get power by complaining. …Only because you listen and credit lazy -ss losers like that. Do some work and you can have leverage to steer the world. They won’t.
They ORDER us what to do, then say we’re doing it wrong. From the couch.
“In 2015, the Danish Prime Minister Lars Rasmussen observed, “I know that some people in the U.S. associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore, I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.”
A favorite quote. And “Democratic Socialism” is “National Socialism”. As the far-left is openly saying now, only just discovering it.
“Chevalier is a true believer who has praised Marxism and the concept of “seizing the means of production.”
Let’s dig into that. Like other Socialism, Communism, NO ONE IS STOPPING YOU. Go do it. There are hundreds of communes, religious societies, monestaries, etc. You go show me how it works and I’ll hop on. So here: you CAN Seize the Means of Production. Just collectivize the employees and buy out the company. Like Hammond Motors in “Atlas Shrugged”. In six months the company collapses as everyone wants pay and no one wants to buy that new CNC stamping machine for $5M dollars. No one can decide what car to make. There are Committee meetings about committee meetings.
But you CAN buy out almost any small company out there and the owner will be happy to sell it to the workers.
…The problem is, that would be VOLUNTARY, and require WORK, and Socialists don’t do that. They want to STEAL it. Yeah, no. But you go show me. Show me how it’s done, no one’s ever stopping you. There are in fact a handful of companies that run this way.
“• DSA Using Vehicle of Democrat Party to Install Communist Government (CTH)
They’re very open about it. And open about being National Socialists and warming up the camps to murder half of America. Just ask them. “What happens if Red People say no then?” We shoot them, they are enemies to the cause. Ah. Got it.
““Secret Nazis” Are Fine If They Advance Agenda.” Like so.
…They also don’t care if they are open Nazis, as shown in Maine and with many Left-Media people, I believe Hasan (a Turk) is one of them. They are now solidly “Kill all the Jews”, a caring and inclusive position.
Very happy this is all public though. We said this for years, decades, lifetimes, and they said “No it isn’t.” Ah. And like McCarthy there were no communists in Hollywood and they weren’t putting your daughters on the casting couch to push movies into violent, demented, X-rated fest that collapses family and society. We were all making that up. It was a “Red Scare”, there were no “Reds” there at all. …Except I can ALSO read books day and night about how everyone was. And their morals.
“• Is Trump Grooming Marco Rubio As His Successor? (Eric Florack)
I’m about done with the words “Grooming”. And 55 other psycho-babble words. Now we need a new word for the REAL grooming, so it gets all the criminals off. Same with “Me Too”. Violent rape is now the same as looking at someone. No, it is not. You’re all insane. Use words, that’s what they’re for. Conflating the two is attacking actual rape victims, who deserve a little courtesy, thanks? Stop attacking them to boost your status?
No one is being “Gaslit” either. Nor “Toxic”. We used to have actual words to describe these things without patholgizing and apologizing for it all. What many of these do is say “I was born ADHD and have no control over my body and mind, deal with it and let me do whatever I feel like forever.” No. You’re a toddler and are getting a spanking. No you may not misbehave because you were born.
This is all to avoid my having to say nice things about Rubio, which burns me.
“• Roger Waters Calls Out West For Banning RT (RT)
He’s certainly living every line of what he warned about in “The Wall,” isn’t he?
“Mr. Homan, we saw that two immigrants were shot in the span of a week.”
They’re not Immigrants. They had no process. And they shoot us citizens constantly and no one cares, they’re happy about it. Last, many are felons and fleeing police. Don’t do that.
I can’t do that; you don’t do that. Yes, the police will get very anxious and edgy if you do. That’s because they’ve already been attacked by the public 10,000 times in their career, often with deadly intent.
July 20, 2026 at 10:34 am #245303Dr. D
ParticipantThere is no “West” Alistair. There is You, and there is Me, and we are radically different.
You believe in Stalinist end of all human rights. And we believe in the Enlightenment. We are not the same.
Keep that s–t in Britain.
July 20, 2026 at 10:38 am #245304Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 11:43 am #245305tboc
ParticipantBeggars mounted
July 20, 2026 at 2:43 pm #245306zerosum
ParticipantBREAKING BAD NEWS:
Nobody has enough information to conclude that they have the right conclusions on how our society function.
(Except me.)
🙂
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News from Iran.https://www.iranintl.com/en
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Iran suspends Memorandum of (Mis)Understanding amid the “Infrastructure War” with the Outlaw US Empire
Plus news and updates from Lebanon and Yemen.
Ismaele
Jul 19, 2026https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/iran-suspends-memorandum-of-misunderstanding
————–LOGISTICS WAR ESCALATES🚚 Ukraine Strikes Moscow Warehouses🔥 Russia Pounds Odesa Ports🚢 MS 20.07.2026
————-
https://t.me/RezistanceTrench/54905#
🇮🇷⚡️ Iran’s IRGC Thanks Jordanian Citizens for Providing Intelligence:We extend our sincere thanks to the citizens of Jordan for their cooperation and the accurate intelligence they provided, which enabled our Mujahideen to target American C-17 military transport aircraft and P-8 command-and-control aircraft at Aqaba Airport with ballistic missiles.
———-July 20, 2026 at 4:04 pm #245307WES
ParticipantIRGC:
Bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure is no way to defeat the IRGC.
You need to directly target members of the IRGC directly.
Stopping oil exports cuts most of the IRGC’s cash flow.
Bombing IRGC’s people, one by one, helps instill fear.
Bombing a bridge or a power plant does nothing, because the IRGC don’t care about what happens to Iran or it’s people.
It is all about the IRGC surviving with their stolen wealth!
July 20, 2026 at 4:21 pm #245308tboc
ParticipantJust to aid in dispelling the fog of old timers disease the foreign policy of the United States underwent the Pivot to Asia fifteen years ago. In the time that has elapsed there have been multiple inciidents of maritime intrusion into the South China Sea, efforts to undermine the One China policy have seen a steady stream of meddling in Hong Kong and the trade wars of this period. The pentagon has used the Mighty Wurlitzer to announce the intent to have war with China.
China has been playing GO for 2500 years. The poor, poor west thinks that being outplayed is proof of being cheated. The best the US can muster is to prove they are Shannon L. Adler’s pigeon in the contest.July 20, 2026 at 4:29 pm #245309tboc
ParticipantWes are these your words or a copy and paste?
IRGC:
Bombing Iran’s civilian infrastructure is no way to defeat the IRGC.
You need to directly target members of the IRGC directly.
Stopping oil exports cuts most of the IRGC’s cash flow.
Bombing IRGC’s people, one by one, helps instill fear.
Bombing a bridge or a power plant does nothing, because the IRGC don’t care about what happens to Iran or it’s people.
It is all about the IRGC surviving with their stolen wealth!July 20, 2026 at 4:38 pm #245310zerosum
ParticipantLIVE
updated 3 minutes ago
Airstrikes rock southern, central Iran for tenth consecutive night
https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202607186178
Summary
An explosion was heard in northwest Shiraz on Monday, with initial reports suggesting that an airstrike targeted a location in the southern Iranian city, Iranian state media reported.Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni has left Tehran for Islamabad at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart Mohsin Naqvi, who played a key role in mediating Iran-US negotiations.
Iran increased production of missiles, drones and other military equipment during the war rather than scaling it back, acting Defence Minister Majid Ebnolreza said on Monday.
Bahrain and Kuwait sounded warning sirens and activated air defense systems against attacks by the Islamic Republic on Monday, according to separate official statements.
US President Donald Trump said the United States had struck Iran “very hard again tonight” in honour of American service members killed in the conflict.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed two oil tankers “exploded and were brought to a halt” late Sunday after attempting to transit the southern Strait of Hormuz under what it described as US pressure.
July 20, 2026 at 4:55 pm #245313WES
Participantthoç:
My words!
I rarely copy and paste, since I am not very good at doing it!
A habit formed from an earlier life as a technical writer, where I gathered the required info from so many different sources, that it was simply easier to sumerize the new info, by write using my own words.
Often, I was also trying to simplify and streamline the info, so others didn’t have to repeat my learning curve of mastering new complex subjects.
July 20, 2026 at 5:06 pm #245314WES
Participanttɓoc:
In regards to pooping pigeons, wear a hat and don’t look up!
July 20, 2026 at 5:32 pm #245315zerosum
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026
War On Iran: – Hit On U.S. In Saudi Arabia And Jordan – Yemen Declares SA Blockade
The war on Iran continues to escalate. Last night the U.S. again bombed various cities in Iran hitting military as well as civilian targets. Iran responded by hitting U.S. installation in various Gulf countries.
Remarkable was an attack on the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia:
War On Iran: – Hit On U.S. In Saudi Arabia And Jordan – Yemen Declares SA Blockade
————July 20, 2026 at 5:37 pm #245316zerosum
ParticipantThe U.S. has moved a large part of its air fleet out of its bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Emirates and transferred them to Jordan. Further reinforcement coming from Europe were also stationed in Jordan and Israel. Iran however has followed the move and attacked the Muwaffaq al-Salti air base in Jordan as well as U.S. installation near Akabar, Jordan’s only harbor. The strikes left extensive damage and several dead and wounded:
In the week leading up to the Iranian attack on Friday that killed two U.S. soldiers and left one service member missing in Jordan, Iran carried out three other strikes against U.S. forces in the country.
Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
But the Pentagon did not disclose the earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted.
It is expected that the U.S. air fleet will move further west to Israel with the hope to slip under a more reliable air defense umbrella. Iran however seems to be waiting for that. It has already proven that it can hit targets in Israel and any assemblies of U.S. jets and tanker air planes on the few well known air bases in Israel will be juicy targets for more of its drones and missiles.
T
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July 20, 2026 at 5:41 pm #245317zerosum
ParticipantToday Ansarallah in Yemen declared the “imposition of a maritime navigation ban” for all ships related to Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have held Yemen under a blockade for some eleven years. It is time to pay back.
Oil tankers which have loaded Saudi oil at the Red Sea harbor of Yanbu will no longer be able to leave through the Bab al-Mandeb strait to world markets. The only outlet left for Saudi oil is the Suez Canal which can not be passed by the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) used today. The flow of Saudi oil to the world markets will thus be reduced from some 5 million barrels per day to about 1-2 mbpd.
The U.S. has no good option to change the course of the war. Any invasion of Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would be prohibitively costly:
———–
July 20, 2026 at 7:17 pm #245326Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 7:36 pm #245327Michael Reid
ParticipantMIDDLE EAST IN DEPTH W/LAITH MAROUF – US ASSETS PUMMELED BY IRAN – REGIONAL RESISTANCE SPREADS
July 20, 2026 at 7:39 pm #245328Michael Reid
ParticipantIran War Escalation w/Robert Barnes
July 20, 2026 at 7:41 pm #245329Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 7:45 pm #245330Michael Reid
ParticipantProf. John Mearsheimer: Pentagon Prepares for a “Wider War” as Military Build-Up Accelerates
July 20, 2026 at 7:47 pm #245331Michael Reid
ParticipantPepe Escobar: ALL BETS ARE OFF: US Strike on Iranian Nuclear Site Triggers Dangerous New Escalation
July 20, 2026 at 7:49 pm #245332zerosum
ParticipantDid you know?
Asking copilot.Q. Where are the exact frozen asset locations, where the money will come from, what assets will be sold or given to Iran?
A. Where Iran’s frozen money actually is
Rough ranges, not a single clean ledger:China:
~$20–50 billion in restricted oil‑revenue and trade‑linked accounts in Chinese banks.India:
~$7 billion in blocked oil‑payment accounts.Iraq:
~$6+ billion tied to energy trade and constrained cross‑border payments.South Korea → Qatar:
About $6–7 billion once held in Korean banks, now ~$12 billion in Qatar escrow accounts for humanitarian‑only use.Japan & Luxembourg:
Roughly $1.5–2 billion each, including a central‑bank‑linked account in Luxembourg tied up in litigation.United States:
Public ranges: ~$2 billion currently frozen; older OFAC documentation cites up to ~$12 billion historically blocked (deposits, gold, property).Global estimates for all frozen/restricted Iranian assets abroad: ~$95–140 billion.
Where the money would “come from”
If assets are unfrozen or returned, the money doesn’t come from U.S. taxpayers or new budgets—it comes from:Existing bank accounts already holding Iranian state funds (central bank, oil revenues).
Escrow / restricted accounts (e.g., Qatar, South Korea, Europe) that would be re‑designated or released.
Court‑blocked funds in places like Luxembourg and the U.S. that would need new legal or political decisions to unlock.
No one is “selling assets to pay Iran” in the usual reparations sense; it’s mostly about letting Iran access its own money that’s currently immobilized.
What assets would be sold or given to Iran
Realistically:Unfreezing / licensing access to existing balances (China, India, Iraq, Qatar, EU, U.S.).
Possibly releasing specific court‑tied sums if political deals include settlement of terrorism or sanctions‑related cases.
No credible plan anywhere for the U.S. to sell domestic assets to fund $300bn‑scale reparations; that figure is a political demand, not a negotiated or agreed number.
Bottom line
Banks do not keep huge amounts of cash uninvested.Frozen assets are claims, not physical money.
If sanctions lift, banks simply unwind investments and pay out.
The numbers sound like “cash piles,” but they’re really blocked balances inside the global financial system.
You’re absolutely right to pause on that line — unwinding frozen assets does hurt someone, because in modern finance every balance is someone else’s liability, and every liability is backed by an invested asset.
But the “hurt” doesn’t look like a dramatic collapse. It’s more like a forced reshuffling of balance sheets, liquidity drains, and political discomfort. Let me break it down cleanly and concretely.
You’re correct:
Unwinding frozen assets hurts someone — banks, borrowers, bond markets, and political actors.
But:
it doesn’t crash the system
it doesn’t bankrupt banks
it doesn’t create global instability
———–
(Hahahahahaha)July 20, 2026 at 7:50 pm #245333Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 7:54 pm #245334Michael Reid
ParticipantSean Foo: Iran War Is Destroying the U.S. Dollar & AI Buildout
July 20, 2026 at 8:22 pm #245335Michael Reid
ParticipantDear Delusional D,
Please watch this video:
Please imagine you were my father and I don’t know what to do and I want you to tell me what you see as the best way forward.
I look forward to your words
July 20, 2026 at 8:46 pm #245336Michael Reid
ParticipantDear WES,
Please watch this to get an education about Iran
July 20, 2026 at 9:05 pm #245337tboc
ParticipantWes, thankyou for your response. This ole dog stays up under the porch outta the way of the big dogs and the pigeons. Though he has been known to bite the ankles of those who get too close to the edge of the porch.
July 20, 2026 at 9:21 pm #245338tboc
ParticipantWes, to complete the thought. I don’t look up, i have known for a long, long time there is nothing to see.
July 20, 2026 at 9:34 pm #245339zerosum
Participant(Hahahahahaha)
Bottom line
Your instinct is correct:Add 10–30% leverage to frozen assets, then force a sudden unwind → you absolutely get major trouble.
Not global collapse, but real, painful, systemic stress.
July 20, 2026 at 10:48 pm #245340tboc
Participantcould not let this one get away
“One of my greatest pleasures in writing has come from the thought that perhaps my work might annoy someone of comfortably pretentious position. Then comes the saddening realization that such people rarely read.”
John Kenneth Galbraith, A Life in Our Times, 1981July 20, 2026 at 11:01 pm #245341Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 11:03 pm #245342Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 11:05 pm #245343Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 11:06 pm #245344Michael Reid
ParticipantJuly 20, 2026 at 11:11 pm #245345Michael Reid
ParticipantRUSSIA sank a 150-Meter-Long BRITISH Drone Carrier with the help of the Rarest Cruise Missile KH-22
July 20, 2026 at 11:52 pm #245347zerosum
ParticipantRUSSIA sank a 150-Meter-Long BRITISH Drone Carrier with the help of the Rarest Cruise Missile KH-22
Copilot says The story is fabricated.
July 21, 2026 at 12:49 am #245348kultsommer
ParticipantHope that entire mix will catch….
Commercial free.July 21, 2026 at 12:49 am #245349zerosum
Participant50% tariffs.
Threatening is bullying.
Friend don’t do this.
Tariffs are war activities against enemies.
Canadian leaders must wake up. -
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