₿oogaloo
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“What I would give for even ONE scrap of trustworthy information.”
I think there is quite a lot of trustworthy information out there. Anyone following the Chris Martenson series has seen him go through the available data on a daily basis with a critical eye.
The problem is not that there is no trustworthy information. Rather, the real problem is twofold. First, there is a human tendency to figure out what you want to believe, and to go and look for evidence that supports the conclusion you wanted to reach from the beginning. Second, we are swimming in a sea of propaganda full of bad faith actors. They do not want to know the truth. Rather, they want to push an agenda, in many cases inducing people to believe what they want to believe, even though the data doesn’t really support that conclusion. Their hope is to muddy the water so much that you just give up and trust your hunch.
Regarding the origin theory, you have the additional problem that the majority of the human race is tribal. Very few care about the truth. If the truth is that this came out of a Chinese lab, how many Chinese would accept that? How many would be open to an honest investigation? How many would simply dismiss the suggestion and refuse to consider the evidence? Same with the Americans. If this really came from a US lab, would Americans want to know the truth? Would they be able to handle the truth? How would they react?
I fear that too many people follow the maxim “My country right or wrong” — which is why we have had so many wars from generation to generation. We need more people to step forward and say “My country was wrong, and we need to correct this to make sure it never happens again.” This is a great time for an international convention banning biological weapons and putting transparent monitoring in place. But will it ever happen? I doubt it — and I expect that the US would oppose it more than any other country.
On the origin, neither country wants to know the truth. They just want to find enough evidence to blame the other side. We are swimming in a sea of propaganda.
since more interventions can result in an earlier peak, and removal of all interventions could result in a new peak.
As we see happening in Singapore, where the situation was once fully under control, but where new cases have jumped, especially in the dormitories for foreign workers.
By the way, here is the interview I referred to above, and the name of the epidemiologist is Johan Giesecke:
Yesterday there was a story on Zerohedge with an interview with the epidemiologist advising the Swedish government. I think Dr D may have seen it because he mentioned this guy by name in the other thread. It is well worth watching for anyone who thinks that Sweden is following the best model. Some highlights:
He is convinced that the case fatality rate will be very low — about 0.1% (though I am not sure where he got that figure because he did not say).
He is convinced that the vast majority of people have no symptoms at all and do not even realize that they caught the disease (though I am not sure where he got that from because he did not say).
He is convinced that 50% of the population or more has been exposed to the virus (though I am not sure where he got that from because he did not say).
He pointed out, correctly in my view, that many early models were flawed because they did not account for the fact that hospital capacity would increase, and he mentioned that capacity of ICUs had increased by 3x in Sweden.
But he brushed aside, foolishly in my view, the benefits of slowing the spread. He is probably correct that a vaccine is a long way off. But those catching this thing early are the guinea pigs for developing effective ways to treat the symptoms. Hopefully in a few weeks or months we will understand the pathology better and will have more effective responses. But he seemed to brush this off.
Though at the beginning he criticized the responses of many governments as not being grounded in science or data, towards the end of the interview he tipped his cards several times. He said he does not believe that it is possible in a democracy to keep people confined for more than a few weeks. I am not sure whether that statement is supported by any science or data, but he left me with the impression that was the reason behind his recommendations.
Worth watching IMO. Not because I agree with him, but because it was fascinating to see how he framed the issue.
Ilargi, yes, I realize that the data are problematic and that not all countries are updating the figures. For awhile I was skeptical of the Diamond Princess figures once all of the passengers got off the ship. But it does seem that someone is following up on them — but who? the cruise ship company?
The Korean figures are the most useful in the sense that (i) they are updated regularly, (ii) there has been widespread testing in Korea that has caught virtually all of the community spread so we have a good sense that we know the entire universe of cases in the country (or at least very close). If the virus was still spreading it would be showing up in the daily figures, but community spread is now down to the single digits here — two cases in Seoul on Sunday, and none yesterday. One limit of the Korean data, however, is that a significant number of the closed cases come from the same church group, and the population demographic most affected in that population was women in their 20s — people who are more likely to have mild cases and who are unlikely to die. Putting all that together, the death rate for closed cases so far is 2.8%, but that number is likely to increase once we get through the remaining 20-25% of open cases. And that is the number in a country where everyone is getting treated and there is no shortage of hospital beds (though these was a shortage for a time in Daegu, the epicenter).
Put it all together and I say that it is wishful thinking to say that the case fatality rate worldwide will be less than 1%. I expect it to be much higher than that.
By the way, Chris Martenson did a great job today of tearing the Stanford study to shreds.
I posted a response to WES in the last thread (twice), but I guess it got lost in cyberspace (twice). I tried a third time here, but that did not work, so here is a fourth (fortunately I saved it in a cut and paste).
The answer is that there are 13 reported deaths from the Japanese cruise ship, and another 55 unresolved active cases, with 7 of those in the critical category (scroll down to Diamond Princess with 712 cases). This comes from worldometer, which Raul posted above.
The concerning thing is that it takes so long for many cases to resolve. We don’t know how many of the active open cases will progress to critical, and we do not know how many critical cases will end in death. The scary statistic is that 21% of resolved cases worldwide end in death.
For awhile I was wondering if anyone would update the Diamond Princess statistics (who monitors them?), but the numbers do change from time to time, so someone is updating the numbers.
This is a problem elsewhere too. The great majority of US/UK cases are still active. More than half of Spanish, Italian and French cases are still active. Here in Korea, where we have reliable data, daily new cases have slowed to a trickle, but we still have 2300 active cases (20-25% of total cases), and 55 of those are critical. We will not have reliable mortality statistics until all of these cases are closed, and that may take weeks or months.
Edited to add: The problem seems to be that I was trying to add a link to the worldometer. With that link in the text, my message would not post.
Well, Huskynut, a few things jumped out. First, a lot of the social distancing measures that are causing an uproar among libertarians now have a long history. Second, early social distancing measures worked, and produced better results than other cities. Third, the overall death rate in that pandemic was less than one half of one percent of the population. COVID-19 threatens to be much higher than that if it quickly spreads through the population.
It is helpful in times like these, particularly the debate over statistics, to go back and compare to a historical example. Check out the death rates in the last paragraph and compare to the present data.
***On September 27, 1918, New York Health Commissioner Dr. Herman Biggs issued a public warning to residents across the state on the dangers of epidemic influenza. He noted that the disease itself was seldom fatal, but that the complicated pneumonia that frequently developed from it was quite dangerous. Strict quarantine was not practical, Biggs told the public, due to the highly contagious nature of influenza. Instead, those who developed symptoms should rest at home in bed until they were fully recovered. He advised the healthy to avoid poorly ventilated or crowded places.1
As of yet, only two cases of influenza had been reported to the Rochester Board of Health, and neither was confirmed. Influenza was not yet a reportable disease in Rochester, and officials had no way of knowing the true extent of the epidemic. The following day, September 28, four officially diagnosed cases of influenza were reported in the city, one of them a soldier recently arrived from Camp Dix, New Jersey.2 Rochester’s epidemic had begun.
A week later, Acting Health Officer Dr. Joseph Roby estimated nearly 1,000 cases in Rochester. The official number was still unknown, as the disease was not yet reportable. Regardless, officials realized that the city was either in the midst of or about to experience a severe epidemic and began to prepare. Rochester General Hospital set up a separate influenza ward. Education officials discussed the possibility of closing schools. The Army Aerial Photography School cancelled all leave and barred visitors from entering.3
The planning stage did not last long. On October 9, Commissioner of Public Safety Andrew Hamilton announced that all public, private, and parochial schools would close at noon, after students received instructions on influenza prevention and care. At 11:30 pm that evening, all theaters, movie houses, skating rinks, bowling alleys, and other places were to close. Any scheduled performances for that evening that extended beyond that deadline would be permitted to finish. Gymnasium classes and the pool at the Rochester Y.M.C.A. were suspended.4 The Chamber of Commerce, in conference with city officials and employers, asked retail shops to stagger business hours and the Eastman Kodak Camera Company as well as other large industries to stagger their shifts to prevent crowding on trolley cars.5 The next day, Commissioner Hamilton ruled that bowling alleys could remain open, but that no spectators would be allowed in the halls.6 Two days later, Hamilton extended the closure order to churches, soda fountains and ice cream parlors, saloons and hotel bars, and lodge and civic association meetings.7
Rochester’s epidemic grew in intensity over the course of the next several weeks. Physicians, whose ranks were thinned by nearly a quarter due to wartime service, were overwhelmed with cases. Nurses worked round-the-clock. By early-October it became clear that the general hospitals soon would be overrun with patients. With the help of the Red Cross and local institutions, Rochester opened and equipped several additional emergency hospitals: Infants’ Summer Hospital, for use by stricken soldiers; the local Y.M.C.A., used for women and children; the Baden Street Emergency Hospital for men, the Housekeeping Center on Lewis Street; and, for nine days only, Gannett House, the parish house of the First Unitarian Church.8 Together, these emergency hospitals helped relieve much of the strain placed on Rochester’s general hospitals as they tried to deal with the massive influx of influenza and pneumonia patients.
By the end of October, over 10,000 cases of influenza had been reported to the Bureau of Health, and nearly 450 patients had died as a result.9 According to Health Officer Roby, however, most of the newer cases were milder. In addition, the number of influenza patients in the city’s hospitals had decreased. Residents were hopeful that the restrictions therefore would be removed soon. Theater workers, in particular, wanted them removed, as they were among the most affected by the closures. At least four hundred people connected with Rochester’s theaters were temporarily out of work, and, because the epidemic was considered an “act of God,” they were not receiving paychecks.10 Commissioner Hamilton, while sensitive to the plight of city workers, was not convinced that the slightly better epidemic news warranted lifting the closure order. After an additional week of decreasing case reports, however, Roby was. At 7:00 pm on Tuesday, November 5–Election Day–the closure order was removed.11
Public schools opened the following day, giving officials time to prepare the buildings and staff. Many teachers had to be recalled from volunteer service, and a number of them were ill with influenza themselves. Rochester’s Catholic schools remained closed an additional week in order to allow the sisters who had been caring for the ill to rest before resuming their teaching duties. As in other communities that had closed schools, Rochester was in a bit of a quandary as to how best to make up the lost classroom days. The School Superintendent believed that the only way to proceed was to observe only actual holidays and not the usual associated breaks. Thus, children would be required to attend school the day after Thanksgiving as well as the day after Christmas.12
Rochester slowly recovered from its epidemic. The city experienced a slight second peak in early- to mid-December, but the number of new cases never rose high enough for officials to consider a second closure order. Residents were pleased by the decision, especially those who once again would have been thrown out of work. The epidemic had been particularly costly to them. For the city, the epidemic reduced Rochester’s coffers by an estimated $20,000, although some of that money went to more permanent equipment such as beds that could be used in future health crises.13
The death toll was even more devastating. All told, Rochester experienced nearly 30,000 cases of influenza. Of these cases over 1,000 resulted in death. Yet despite these high numbers, Rochester’s epidemic was much less severe than that of many other American cities, including ones in New York. Albany, for example, had an excess death rate of 553 per 100,000. Buffalo’s was 530 and Syracuse’s 541. Rochester, by comparison, had an excess death rate of 360 per 100,000, nearly identical to that of St. Louis, touted as one of the best examples of epidemic handling in the nation. Like St. Louis, Rochester officials reacted quickly to the growing number of influenza cases in the city, enacting social distancing measures within a matter of days after realizing that the epidemic had begun.
https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-rochester.html#
Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
Data like this leads to the natural follow-up question how many of them developed symptoms in the next 14-24 days. Everyone is asymptomatic until they develop symptoms.
But now, suddenly, if we don’t lock down instantly and voluntarily BEFORE we know anything, we’ll be extinct in 50?
Dr D where exactly is this in Taleb? Or is this another straw man argument?
And the bottom line is that the C19 is the Enemy. Not each other, not assigning shame and blame. We are all very highly charged in this time of Danger.
Sadly, we do have other enemies — especially those who will try to propagandize us to readily accept and embrace putting people in harm’s way too soon. For their financial benefit, not ours. And we have enemies who are looting the country and only sending a few crumbs to the people.
I am all in favor of civil discourse, but that’s really really difficult when we are mired in so much propaganda. Here is a great warning piece “Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting” from a couple of days ago:
https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2020/04/14/gaslighting-coronavirus-julio-vincent-gambuto
And so we are about to be gaslit in a truly unprecedented way. It starts with a check for $1,200. And it will be a one-two punch from big business and the White House. Both are about to band together to knock us unconscious again. It will be funded like no other operation in our lifetimes. It will be fast. It will be furious. And it will be overwhelming. The Great American Return to Normal is coming.
A few observations about the recent numbers: Sweden is in bad shape, with a very low testing rate and a very high death rate among confirmed cases. Czech Republic has done a remarkable job by promoting masks — R0 dropping very low compared to other Western countries. Russia is now in trouble — the only large country that still has a 15% day over day increase. The US has a very low recover rate — how can that be with all the noise that this is just the flu? Korea is dropping like a rock in the global standings — my wife is waiting for the day when Japan overtakes Korea in the standings and she can declare victory on behalf of all Koreans. India is still climbing at a very slow pace — is there any explanation for that given what we know about hygiene in India? Singapore was on top of things for a long time but seems to be slipping with a 10% increase yesterday, even under a very restrictive lockdown.
Overall the larger countries are seeing a slowdown. Instead of 10-15% day over day increases, for the most part we are down to 5% or less day over day. That’s because of social distancing and widespread shutdowns. Without those if we had continued on a 10-15% day over day increase most countries would really be screwed by now . . . .
People should stay home and demand a jubilee. If there is an unlimited supply of money for the banks (there always is) and the miltary (there always is), then there is enough money to give everyone a six month stay at home paid vacation. Of course some people will need to be working as the economy goes into deep freeze, but most of us should stay at home and refuse to go back. Nobody should go back to work until this corrupt system gets rebooted. The Fed needs to be gutted. The health care system needs to be rebuilt. The FIRE economy needs to be cut down to size. Government support should be redirected to individuals and main street. The military needs to be downsized. Edward Snowden needs to be pardoned. And someone needs to let Julian Assange out of jail.
Yes, individual unemployment is bad for the soul and bad for health, but it is en entirely different situation when everyone is in the same boat. That’s when social bonds can become even stronger. Collective action becomes possible, and that is exactly what the elites fear.
The hamsters are not on their treadmills. The horror! They are not paying rent. They are not paying their mortgages. If they were all isolated, they would be terrified of eviction. But not now. No, now they are enjoying life.
Dr. D told us on several occasions that he believes “the economy is us” — which seems to be his core principle, and which drives his perspective. That tells you all you need to know IMO. The “get back to work” “just the flu” crowd does not care about your health, and they do not care about your economic interests either. They are only out for themselves. They are trying to preserve a status quo that deserves to die and be rebuilt from the ground up. People should stay at home.
sumac: One important nit: The original article never suggested that “for most people, covid-19 is barely noticeable.” Rather, the author gave one example of one person who had only two minor symptoms. The point was to set the stage for explaining why some outcomes are catastrophic and others are not..
Dr D: My cynical side says that the elites want to send people back to work NOT because they care about the economy, but because they do not want the government to own the unemployment problem. As a practical matter, the government cannot allow foreclosures to go forward at the same time they are ordering people to stay home. That could lead to an uprising. So instead they will let people go back to work and then give the green light to the foreclosures. Then Wall Street will buy up all of the foreclosed homes with all of the free money they got from the Fed. So in the name of saving the economy we will really be sending a lot of people to economic ruin.
That’s why I think the people are better off staying at home and insisting on some form of jubilee/reset.
There is plenty of money out there for bailouts, but in the current rigged system all the money goes to the banks, the hedge funds, the big companies, and the military. Not to the people. It is time to change that.
Mm ba ba de
Um bum ba de
Um bu bu bum da de
Pressure pushing down on me
Pressing down on you no man ask for
Under pressure that brings a building down
Splits a family in two
Puts people on streets
Um ba ba be
Um ba ba be
De day da
Ee day da that’s okay
It’s the terror of knowing
What the world is about
Watching some good friends
Screaming Let me out
Pray tomorrow gets me higher
Pressure on people people on streets
Day day de mm hm
Da da da ba ba
Okay
Chippin’ around kick my brains around the floor
These are the days it never rains but it pours
Ee do ba be
Ee da ba ba ba
Um bo bo
Be lap
People on streets ee da de da de
People on streets ee da de da de da de da
It’s the terror of knowing
What this world is about
Watching some good friends
Screaming let me out
Pray tomorrow gets me higher higher high
Pressure on people people on streets
Turned away from it all like a blind man
Sat on a fence but it don’t work
Keep coming up with love but it’s so slashed and torn
Why, why, why?
Love love love love love
Insanity laughs under pressure we’re breaking
Can’t we give ourselves one more chance
Why can’t we give love that one more chance
Why can’t we give love give love give love give love
Give love give love give love give love give love
‘Cause love’s such an old fashioned word
And love dares you to care for
The people on the (people on streets) edge of the night
And loves (people on streets) dares you to change our way of
Caring about ourselves
This is our last dance
This is ourselves
Under pressure
Under pressure
Pressure.Boogaloo do check the link I sent -it offers an explanation for the distribution of covid in the US and elsewhere including Netherlands.
Sumac, yes, it will be interesting to see if this theory holds up over time, either with respect to the distribution or the severity of the disease. The point that I had tried to make before was that some countries that seemed to do well in the beginning are now struggling, and I do not think that this theory can explain that. For example, she gives the examples of Bhutan (for organic food) and Russia (for resisting biofuels). Russia did well at first, but now sees 15% day-over-day increases.
Raul, it is absolutely insane that some are calling this a hoax, especially in the US. There are still so many things that we do not know and understand about this disease. Two months ago there were fewer than a dozen confirmed cases in the US. Now there are at least half a million, and 90% of those are still open cases. And yet Americans are calling this a hoax? What??? We have seen the pictures of the mass graves in NY. And yet, and yet, and I think this can only happen in the USA, in spite of the fact that in record time the US has now sprinted into first place in confirmed cases, the “get back to work” crowd is now saying that this is all a hoax because models projected even higher numbers if there had been no NPIs?? (but, but, but . . . there have been NPIs — aren’t we supposed to take that into account when evaluating whether the dire warnings were correct?)
My Korean wife asks me how the US can have screwed this up so badly and have the worst numbers in the world in such short time, and I am trying to explain to her that in spite of this, Americans are trying to convince themselves that this is no big deal because some said it might be worse. She just doesn’t get US politics . . . neither do I . . . .
Models predicted that more ventilators would be needed. But many people who needed them only recently went on them, and most will be on them for a long time. I have not seen any data that patients in the US medical system will come off them faster than elsewhere. And 90% of US cases are still open? What does that mean? Have the US health professionals actually treating the patients sounded the “all clear” siren?
What makes the US cases more puzzling to me is that the spread had been so uneven. If it had been evenly spread across the country, the “hoax” calls might carry more weight. But because it has been concentrated in certain pockets, I am more inclined to believe that this might just be a matter of time. If the New York experience spreads to all major metropolitan areas, then what?
Having said that, I still think that we will make tremendous advances in understanding this disease in a relatively short period of time. I doubt that we we have a vaccine within a year. But we will know how to treat the symptoms and keep people out of the hospital. And those of us who benefit from that will be able to look back and be grateful for the hammer that slowed the spread at the early stages and bought us more time.
Today’s Austria data (though the use of the word “acute” is confusing) reaffirms what I have suspected from the Korean data that we are still in the very early stages of this. Hoping to see more data asap, and hoping the antibody testing can be rolled out as fast as possible …
Sumac: Do you mean the glycophosphate hypothesis? There may be something to that — yet another lead where the science angle raises so many interesting questions. Let’s add it to the list:
Why more men than women?
Why is A blood type more susceptible that O blood?
Why are smokers more affected (if they are)?
Does baseline air pollution play a role?
Is this really a disease of the blood (hemoglobin hypothesis)?
Why do some recovered patients have low antibodies?
Why do the few children who are infected have dermatology symptoms in their toes and fingers, while adults do not?There are a lot of unsolved puzzles for this disease.
So if we’ve peaked, it’s now tapering off and over. Which is also odd, since no place but NY(city), West Coast, and NOLA seem to have any problems. Is Tulsa really that bad that the Wu won’t visit it? Is St. Louis really a virus pariah zone? And here I thought Americans were mobile, yet no virus can reach DesMoines. Since news and drama cannot reach there, maybe I should move to the nation’s safe zone.
Explain, anyone?It has been interesting to watch the numbers. In the early days there were a handful of cases in Europe, but the only people who died were Chinese. People joked that the Germans got over this with a shot of whiskey. Numbers in Japan initially climbed very slowly, but Japan is now seeing 10%+ increases day over day, and people have finally started to worry now that this is spreading in Tokyo — maybe they should have been more aggressive with their testing. Russia seemed to be doing great at first, but now it seems that they have a big problem. Singapore was doing great at first, but now the country is closed to short term visitors and all nonessential businesses are shut down, but the numbers have been increasing at the fastest rate since this began (though unevenly day to day). Korea is doing great — only 27 cases yesterday, 30 today, and almost every single case is either caught at the airport or linked to another case. Korea might be the first country in the world to eliminate this. I love this country. Vietnam is still a mystery. I am surprised that the numbers in India have been so low so far. Certainly there is a testing problem, but I have not been reading about mass graves yet. Sweden is an interesting case. They basically decided to stop testing. Did you see the pictures of the corpses being stored in the ice rinks?
I think the lesson here is that spread is uneven, and things can change quickly when countries are not vigilant. So who knows? St. Louis, Tulsa, and Des Moines may be like last month’s Tokyo, Moscow and Quito. For now the safest densely populated place in the world is Korea.
So much conflicting data. The World-o-Rama says 16,114 total Wu Wu Flu deaths so far, while the CDC says 4,065. I guess it all boils down to which bunch of liars you desperately need to believe.
From the footnotes:
“*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.”
Dr D: I am not sure what that chart you posted is purporting to show. The first link listed only claims to have flu data. The second has data for flu and pneumonia, but it appears to me that the reference to “pneumonia” means pneumonia linked to influenza.
Another problem with the chart: The last data point for week 12 had only partial data. That data point has been revised up to 3697, meaning week 12 was higher than week 11. The data for week 13 is now available, but is only 93% complete at the time of this post, and shows a jump from week 12 to week 13. The second link is archived data of this page, and this is the current page:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
There is also a statement on the site that they are taking data from death certificates they receive from the states, and data can be revised when death certificates are updated.
I have the same question.
His flouncing out of here lacked any context…I am guessing it was a reaction to all of the recent stressful changes. The world has changed.
Re: “Notes on Jurisprudence”
I do not want to wish harm on anyone, but if District Judge Vanessa Baraitser dies from the coronavirus, it would help me to believe that maybe, just maybe, there is some justice in this world after all.
“So…According to CDC own numbers, pneumonia has dropped off a cliff, 90° down. Along with heart attacks and some other numbers. I know people are sitting around a lot, but…really?”
No, actually. Here is the CDC data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/
Another thing — I think we need to distinguish between a “reset” and a “reflation.”
Reset implies a jubilee, price discovery, markets clearing, interest rates determined by the market rather than central planners, and an end to the current structure of the global financial/monetary system. The role of government will be a return of the New Deal: Putting people back to work. Public money spent on public infrastructure. The elites have no interest in a reset and will fight this to the bitter end.
Reflation is what the elites have in mind — a repeat of the crisis of 2008. No jubilee. No relief. Just another squeeze on the middle class. They will throw people out of their homes, let asset prices fall for a while, hand out newly printed money to banks and hedge funds, buy up assets on the cheap, and then bid everything back up again. That’s what they have in mind, and that is not a reset. Their idea of government assistance is socialism for the banks and big corporations, and crumbs for everyone else.
Both scenarios involve short term pain, but only one has a bright future for the vast majority of the people.
It seems that for quite a few of us, our minds are made up one way or another. Maybe it’s rooted in our DNA, or personalities, or religion, or culture, or political ideology. Or maybe its our individual convictions or fears in light of our own circumstances.
Some of us seem to be saying that nothing is more important than keeping people healthy, and some of us seem to say that nothing is more important than keeping the economy going.
neoh, regarding the 59-80%, understood.
Regarding the party line of fear, I could not disagree with you more. I see a huge difference between a pandemic disease and the boogeyman of terrorism. Disease is a real threat. Terrorism is not and never was. I loathe the Patriot Act and the deep state behind it, and I see that as an example of an illegitimate power grab. But in a pandemic, you need a strong, competent, temporary hammer to stay ahead of the disease.
Regarding the economic consequences, yes it is true that there are no easy choices in a pandemic. But historical data from the 1918 pandemic shows that the economic recovery was stronger in places where measures were harsher and the people stayed healthier. I think we need to turn our attention to what the system will look like when we come out on the other side of this. Charles Hughes Smith had a good column today with the lead in:
“What’s remarkable about the lockdown isn’t the hue and cry about the economic damage–it’s the absence of any critical curiosity as to how our economy became so fragile that only the wealthiest contingent can survive a few weeks on savings or rainy-day funds.”
I agree with that. Similarly, Alastaire Crooke had a good piece at Strategic Culture that closed with this:
“The mask is off: Is this the point of inflection for the global order, when the western hyper-financialised system is unable to reform itself, refuses to reform itself – and yet is unable to sustain itself, as it once was? Will the system – so busily engaged in looking after itself – even notice that the world doesn’t believe in it anymore, not even one jot?”
Eyes Wide Open: Will the ‘Masters of the Universe’ Notice No One Takes Them Seriously Anymore?
In my view the present system is not worth saving in its current form. Americans need a new and better system. They should not be clamoring to be let out of lockdown so that they can put their lives at risk for a minimum wage job with no benefits while the elites are paid 100 cents on the dollar to cover their losses.
Prins article is the gem today. What will it take to get Americans to rethink how to engineer a smart bailout? Bailout the people, bailout small business, stop the incessant centralization of power. Those who are sitting at home anxious about losing everything, anxious about the cure doing more harm than the disease, start questioning your assumptions!
Hour long discussion from the physician at Cornell hospital in NYC who is deciding who gets sent home and who gets put on the ventilators. He is optimistic that they have figured out how this is transmitted. He is confident that he will not get sick. An optimistic take worth your time:
neoh, what is the source of your claim that 59-80% of the population has already had the virus and recovered? Where did you read that? Who made that claim?
Testing in Germany is showing that more than 90% of sick people are testing negative. So if more than 90% of people with symptoms do not have it, I cannot understand how anyone can claim that 80% of healthy people have already been exposed.
The virus has virtually been stopped in Korea, with just a few new cases every day either imported or traced to other known cases. But if it was true that the virus was already widespread, that 59-80% of people have already had it and recovered, then it would be impossible to trace the new cases.
So I am really curious to know the source of your claim.
Another comment along the same lines:
The “no big deal” camp would have us believe that coronavirus is no worse than a bad flu season. The same group tells us that thousands upon thousands die of the flu every year. The same group is now questioning whether victims are actually dying from the coronavirus, and not any associated co-morbidities. But for the flu statistics, it is pretty clear that a death gets counted as a flu death even if flu is just a contributing cause (that is the reason the numbers are so high). So shouldn’t it be the same for the coronavirus? I see this as another instance of people massaging the statistics, seeing what they want to see, believing what they want to believe.
Dear All,
There has been a theory floating around here that the infection rate is much higher than we realize, that most people have no symptoms, that we are much closer to herd immunity than we realize, that this is much ado about nothing, and that we should all go back to work tomorrow to save the economy. But I think the Korean data shows this theory to be horseshit. The data from Seoul now shows that virtually every new case is either imported or linked to a previous known case. If this was really spreading like wildfire there would be countless untraceable cases. That is not happening. Yes, this is highly contagious. But the R0 is only 2.5 to 7.0. And that is before the NPIs. With the NPIs we are closer to 1. And Korea has been really good with the NPIs.
Bottom line: Less than 1% of any population has been infected yet. We have a long way to go.
And for those who say that flu kills a lot more people, have you really confirmed that flu was the actual (or sole?) cause of death in those other cases, and not cancer, emphysema, senility or old age?
sumac.carol,
Which do you think is better for the long run:
Scenario A: Send people back to work to preserve the system, a system that works extremely well for the 0.01% (and fairly well for the top 10%, but offers only servitude for everyone else, especially those under age 30), a system that forces almost everyone to put their lives at risk just for the opportunity to compete for the crumbs, a system that distracts with so many anxieties that they never have the opportunity to contemplate real change.
Scenario B: Order people to stay at home, preserve their health, and contemplate for hours on end how they are getting screwed by the current economic system, and how the world would be a much better place if we collectively let this hyper-financialized corrupt system collapse under its own weight. No, waiting this out is not “economic suicide” — except for those who will be caught with their pants down in an over-leveraged, hyper-financialized economy. Let everyone in quarantine order all the remaining pitchforks for sale on Amazon, along with all the available stocks of toilet paper, as they contemplate how to become an active part of moving this civilization into the next phase of history.
Won’t someone state the obvious: US practices are extremely inefficient and wasteful. Bitching about having only one N95 mask and only one gown per day? Gimme a break. No, you are not entitled to a new single use mask every time you enter a hospital room, only to be disposed of and discarded the moment you leave the room to move on to the next patient (and the patient likely to be charged $500 for a $5 item).
I have to confess . . . . I have a dark side, and the black angel perched over my left shoulder is whispering things in my ear that speak to the dark side, the part of me that wants to see the world burn. I see the curves starting to flatten. I see the daily numbers in Italy and Spain start to go down, and part of me feels . . . disappointment. Rising numbers are so much more exciting. The US promised to be a sh*t show, and it didn’t disappoint in the beginning, but now things are starting to change, the logarithmic charts are starting to flatten and it . . . disappoints. I was expecting, if not hoping for, something far worse. So I read criticisms of the recent policy response, arguments that the authorities have overreacted, arguments that they are destroying the economy and ignoring the socio-economic repercussions, and my dark side is divided. One one hand, I would love to see a major country say “to hell with flattening the curve, this is all an overblown hoax, we are over-counting fatalities and under-counting the number of infections, we will stay open for business” — and watch the consequences of that experiment play out. Let Bolsonaro get what he wants. Let everyone out of their houses, pretend like everything is back to normal, and just watch what happens! The more body bags, the better. On the other hand, the ongoing economic destruction also feeds my dark side. I want the Fed to fail. I want to see the elites crushed. Right now I see elites worried about the consequences of angry, hungry people in the streets, and that fantasy also plays out in my mind. These elites decry the destruction of the economy, but how many of them will self-sacrificially step aside when they get sick and there is a shortage of ventilators? Somehow I imagine Elon Musk pushing to the front of the line saying “Me first, me first. I can pay!” and I am really, really curious to see how scenario that plays out.
Back to reality, of course this is not what I want. I do not want people to suffer, especially people I know and love. I know doctors on the front line in the US, and I worry about them. Yes, there are many wrongs in the world, including a corrupt financial system that deserves to fail, a corrupt health care system that should be dismantled and rebuilt. And maybe this crisis will be the catalyst that speeds our passage through this fourth turning. I would like to get through this as soon as possible. I am optimistic that life will be better, though probably a lot different, once we get to the other side. I hope to live through this so that I will see it with my own eyes.
riesterm, one could make a similar argument in 1918 about all those deaths caused by war, tuberculosis, diptheria, cancer, heart disease, stroke, childbirth, dementia, enteritis, automobile and industrial accidents. What takes the headlines is when something new arrives that seriously disrupts the year over year numbers. We are at the very beginning of a marathon.
I am surprised and dismayed to see all of the libertarian sites crowing about loss of freedom and the rise to tyranny. A pandemic is precisely the time when collective action is required, and when there is a need for a strong and competent government to close borders and regulate the movement of people. I agree that authoritarian forces do not let any crisis go to waste, but the time will come to push back against those forces after the crisis is over. There is a big difference between the threats of “terrorism” and disease. The former was always overblown, capitalized on irrational fears, and led to ridiculously intrusive searches at the airport over a threat that was largely in the collective imagination. The Patriot Act was a national disaster. Snowden, Manning and Assange are heroes of our day.
Disease is an entirely different beast.
I also agree with Doc Robinson.
In my mind the author lost all credibility by citing the premium for a niche retail product as if that was representative of the entire market. I just returned from lunch. I checked with the jeweler downstairs and as of today it is possible to buy a 37.5g bar of 99.9 gold for $20 below spot (the popular weights in Korea are 3.75g or 37.5g).
If Dr D’s assumptions and math are correct, then Bolsonaro will turn out to be the most enlightened Head of State on the planet. Stay tuned.
It won’t be long before they ramp up the blood serum tests that will make it possible to evaluate how many people became infected, never developed symptoms, and now have antibodies. That will be the only way to test the theory that vast numbers of people have already been infected and developed immunity so this is no big deal after all. But only a week ago the “get back to work” crowd was arguing that 93% of people who were being tested were negative. So it seems like wishful thinking to me. But let us see when we have the data.
For now, I look at the air pollution data in Wuhan still showing clean air, I see the police riots on the bridge at zero hedge, I hear about stacked up urns evidencing a much higher death rate than the Chinese authorities reported, I see the lines outside the Chinese hospitals, and I think is serious on a macro scale. China would not have shut down its economy if it was no big deal. But let us wait and see. Six weeks ago I took a screenshot of the official numbers on my phone. On February 16 Korea had 29 cases. Italy had 3 cases. The US had 15 cases. The UK had 9 cases. Much has changed in six weeks. So let us see where we are in another six weeks.
Very disappointing to see the Americans try to cast blame on the Chinese. Yes, the Chinese tried to downplay this in the beginning as they scrambled to try to get it under control. But when that failed, their scientists sequenced the virus and made that information available to the whole world so that other countries could immediately develop their own tests and start preparing for the virus. And they also published many papers on a rushed basis even without peer review — that’s how we found out about chloraquine. And even though their recent statistics are quite dubious, the early statistics still showed an exponential curve and a very contagious virus. And we all saw the videos of the hospitals going up in a week, which should have set off alarms. In sum, the US had plenty of information early enough to respond, but instead chose to ignore and downplay the threat. The US elite chose to prioritize not spooking the stock market, rather than to prepare of a potential pandemic. Even though behind closed doors they knew the magnitude of the threat. The US has nobody to blame but itself for f***ing up its response.
