₿oogaloo
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I have been following my own advice and taking a break from TAE. I even removed it from my bookmarks on my phone. I can still check in, but it takes more work. And when I do check in, what do I see? Lots of Zionist propaganda, lots of anti-Iran vitriol, and virtually no criticism of the genocidal expansionist ethno-supremacist apartheid state in the Middle East. I am not going to restore the bookmark anytime soon.
Has anyone else seen those collapsing polls? I haven’t. Anyone?
Well, if the new trend for discussion on the TAE board is to post AI search results, I will give it a go once.
The prompt: “One columnist today said that Trump’s poll numbers have been collapsing. Another said “I do not see any evidence of that.” What is the truth in the context of the resumption of the war between the US and Iran?”
The response: The short answer is that **there is little evidence that Trump’s poll numbers are “collapsing” in the wake of the renewed fighting with Iran.** There is evidence that they have **declined from the beginning of his second term**, but the available polling suggests that the recent resumption of hostilities has **reinforced an already-existing weakness rather than triggered a dramatic new collapse.**
A few distinctions are important.
**1. Overall job approval**
The highest-quality recent polling shows relative stability.
* An AP-NORC poll conducted in mid-June found Trump’s overall approval at **37%**, essentially unchanged from May (37%) and February (36%), despite the Iran conflict. Approval of his handling of Iran was also largely unchanged. ([apnorc.org][1])
That is inconsistent with the idea of a sudden collapse.
**2. Reuters/Ipsos tells a somewhat different story—but not a recent collapse**
Reuters/Ipsos found Trump’s approval at **34%**, tying the lowest level of his second term. However, Reuters itself emphasized that this represented **a return to his previous low**, not a new plunge. Trump had begun the term around 47%, then gradually declined over several months because of inflation, immigration controversies, and other issues. The Iran war appeared to contribute to that weakness. ([investing.com][2])
In other words:
* From inauguration: substantial decline.
* After the Iran war: modest additional deterioration or no recovery, depending on the poll.
* After the renewed fighting this month: not enough evidence yet of another sharp downward move.**3. Americans are skeptical of the Iran war itself**
This is where the polling is much clearer.
Recent surveys show:
* Only about **one-quarter** of Americans think the war has been worth its costs.
* A majority doubt that any ceasefire or agreement will produce lasting peace.
* Roughly four in five Americans now expect a prolonged U.S. military involvement after fighting resumed. ([investing.com][2])That suggests considerable public pessimism about the conflict.
**4. But opposition to the war is not the same as collapsing presidential approval**
Historically, those two measures often diverge.
A president can be viewed negatively on one issue while maintaining a relatively stable overall approval rating because voters continue to prioritize:
* inflation,
* immigration,
* taxes,
* crime,
* judicial appointments,
* or party identification.Trump’s coalition has remained highly polarized. Republican approval of his performance remains very high, while Democratic approval remains extremely low. That polarization tends to dampen large swings in overall approval. ([apnorc.org][1])
### Why two commentators could honestly disagree
Both statements you quoted could be defended depending on what data they were using.
The columnist saying **”Trump’s poll numbers have been collapsing”** is probably referring to:
* the decline from roughly the high-40s early in the term to the mid-30s today, or
* issue-specific polling on Iran, where public opinion is clearly negative. ([investing.com][2])The columnist saying **”I do not see any evidence of that”** is probably looking at:
* the most recent polling surrounding the renewed Iran fighting, which shows Trump’s approval remaining roughly where it already was rather than suddenly falling. ([apnorc.org][1])
So, based on the polling available **after the resumption of hostilities**, the second characterization is closer to the evidence. Trump’s approval ratings are **low**, and many Americans are skeptical of the Iran conflict, but there is **not yet clear evidence of a dramatic new collapse in his overall approval** attributable to the renewed war.
I see TAE moved on from the ballroom and the reflecting pool, and now we can praise President Trump for the helicopter pad. Not sure why a big slab of concrete with a bronze presidential seal should cost $6 million, but what do I know?
A good comment over at Naked Capitalism about the problem of sloppy war analysis:
“Today’s Iran war post will be sketchy, but that may not be a bad thing, since there is a lot of noise in the informational signal so it seems better to say less until more solid details emerge.
“To start with a general comment: I anticipate that (as has already been starting) my commentary may alienate readers since there is now a large contingent that is rooting for Team Iran and takes umbrage at criticism of Iran’s actions and public position. The fact that the US is joined at the hip with an ethnosupremacist, genocidal state, and on other fronts is engaged in a geopolitical smash-and-grab operation does not make Iran a paragon of virtue, even if one can legitimately celebrate the prospect that Iran will permanently diminish US and Israeli power.”
More nonsense from the Zionist Catherine Salgado. Ilargi would post her columns every day if she could churn them out that fast.
This time there is this gem of a sentence: “He therefore had a particular hatred for Jews who support having a single Jewish nation in the world.”
Uh no. That’s a great distortion of the passage, and it whitewashes what Zionism has become. It is one thing to recognize “a single Jewish nation in the world.” It is quite another to support an expansionist ethnosupremacist apartheid state that has no respect for human rights. The latter has no right to exist.
Rather than quitting TAE altogether, I suggest a 30 day vacation. It’s summertime. Get outside and get away from your computer. Take a barefoot walk in the grass. Go for a swim or a bike ride. Come back after a 30 day break and you’ll feel much better.
I skim the crazy sh*t Ilargi posts here — yes, the Pinsker piece won the prize for Delusional Post of the Day. Kunstler came in second today. I guess there was no Salgado piece today, because that is the one that usually wins hands down. For awhile the crazy posts bothered me, but now I see it as a spiritual malaise. It’s another mass formation. Ilargi is under a spell along with a big chunk of the western world. I hope the spell is lifted. But until that happens, don’t even both trying to reason them out of it. You will not add one minute to your life trying.
And then we have a visit from the internet’s model citizen, citizenx, who seems to be afflicted with Tourettes Syndrome. That or he escaped from the underworld for a few hours.
So now we have more clarity on how this will likely play out.
Israel will not maintain the ceasefire and will continue to attack positions in Lebanon. They will say it is in self defense, but the real objective is to torch the peace process. They will ultimately succeed.
That Witkoff and Kushner are in the room as Vance’s minders is all the proof you need that the US is not serious about peace. The Zionists have no interest in compromise.
That Trump is threatening to assassinate the negotiators by saying they will not make it back to Iran shows that the Zionists are still calling the shots and Trump has no agency. The US openly threatens treachery, and yet accuses Iran of bad faith. I expect that TAE will cheer this on.
The war will resume at some point. That much is certain. But how will the US fight it? Direct involvement? Or only through Israel as a proxy?
Orwell taught us that he who controls the present (and the press) controls the past. The Zionist propaganda has everyone believing that the Muslims were brutal and barbaric when they burst out of the Arabian Peninsula and conquered the Holy Land in the seventh century, butchering the Christians, and that we have had nonstop religious violence in the Holy Land ever since. They try to normalize it to justify their atrocities. Yet is it accurate? Consider this short passage from Sir Steven Runciman’s classic work History of the Crusades, first published in 1951:
The fifth of the Caliphs, Moawiya the Ommayad, had been governor of Syria; and after his accession in A.D. 660 he established his capital at Damascus. His descendants reigned there for nearly a century. It was a period of prosperity for Syria and Palestine. The Ommayad Caliphs were with few exceptions men of unusual ability and a broad-minded tolerance. The presence of their court in the province ensured its good government and a lively commercial activity; and they encouraged the culture that they found there. This was a Hellenistic-Christian culture, influenced by tastes and ideas that we associate with the name of Byzantium. Greek-speaking Christians were employed in the civil service. For many decades the state accounts were kept in Greek. Christian artists and craftsmen worked for the Caliphs.
The Dome of the Rock at Jerusalem, completed for the Caliph Abdul-Malik in 691, is the supreme example of the rotunda-style of building in Byzantine architecture. Its mosaics, and the even lovelier mosaics set up in the courtyard of the Great Mosque of Damascus for his son, Walid I, are amongst the finest products of Byzantine art. How far they were the work of native artisans and how far they were helped by the technicians and material that Walid certainly imported from Byzantium is a matter of dispute. These mosaics carefully respected the Prophet’s ban on the depiction of living creatures. But in their country palaces, discreetly removed from the eyes of disapproving mullahs—for instance, at the hunting-box of Kasr al-Amra, in the steppes beyond the Jordan—the Ommayads freely permitted frescoes depicting the human form, even in the nude. Their rule, indeed, brought no interruption to the development of the Hellenistic culture of the near Orient; which now achieved its finest, but its final, flowering.
The Christians had therefore no cause to regret the triumph of Islam. Despite an occasional brief bout of persecution and despite a few humiliating regulations, they were better off than they had been under the Christian Emperors. Order was better kept. Trade was good; and the taxes were far lower. Moreover, during the greater part of the eighth century the Christian Emperor was a heretic, an iconoclast, an oppressor of all the Orthodox that paid respect to holy images. Good Christians were happier under infidel rule.
How many of us learned that in school? Think for a moment: Why was that left out?
@JohnDay: In these modern times, when we have abandoned our anchors, and are all swimming in a sea of propaganda, I suppose it is inevtiable that we all take up inconsistent and incompatible ideologies long before we become conscious of the irreconcilable incongruity. We all have our blind spots, me included. We see it in others before we see it in ourselves.
Here at TAE, some of us have come to a fork in the road, and the rest are wondering “Which of the two paths will they take and how will they explain it?” Or maybe it will be memory-holed in a couple weeks. That’s human nature my friend.
Now that the terms of the MOU are out, and both sides have released the same text, I wonder how the pro-Trump Zionist wing of the TAE community will react.
Ilargi said a few days ago that he was “not impressed” with Alasdair Crooke’s analysis. Dr D even suggested that Alasdair Crooke should apologize for being wrong. And yet, to my eye, Alasdair Crooke has been and continues to be spot on.
Trump has accepted the MOU, but the Zionists hate it. So which loyalty comes first? Loyalty to Trump or loyalty to Zionism?
If Trump follows through with the MOU, I fear for his life. I don’t think he has any agency.
“Lots of people saying this is not a real deal.” They will literally say anything, true false, irrational, chaotic, to make Trump wrong.
I see that Dr D is also infected with PTDS (proTrump Derangement Syndrome), along with our host. Maybe they were both bitten by the same tick? The built-in blinding assumption for those with PTDS is that anyone who criticizes Trump must be part of Team Blue. Not true. In fact, more and more people loathe the entire Epstein Class, regardless of the color on their uniforms. And more people are starting to loathe the expansionist ethno-supremacist apartheid state that is behind the “Kill ’em all” mayhem in the Middle East. The truth is that Christians, Muslims and Jews by and large got along in the Middle East for the better part of 14 centuries before the Zionists arrived. Yes, there were wars are fights for control, and power changed hands, but for the most part if you paid your taxes to whoever was in control, everyone got along. The “Greater Israel” Zionists seek to upend that — they want to claim everything for themselves. And so they have crafted a false narrative that there has always been religious strife in the Middle East. They say this to justify their genocidal butchering tendencies: “It has always been so, so now it is our turn.” But it has not always been so, and the Zionists are a cancer.
Once again, the buns are great, but the meat in the middle of the sandwich should be thrown to the dogs. The leadoff art today is fantastic. The closing Calvin & Hobbes I will forward along. But in between? The lead stories on Trump triumphalism will not age well – that’s almost certain. And Elon Musk? The guy is a genius, but the focus should be on the ideas, not the cult of the man.
Who kidnapped the real Ilargi? And what is the price of his ransom?
Those rascally Iranians. They cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. The only ones that can be trusted to negotiate in good faith are State Department standouts Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
And now that we have a deal, those treacherous Iranians cannot be trusted to honor the agreement. They will breach every promise. Don’t be fooled by the IAEA or the consensus of US intelligence agencies that concluded that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. The Iranians deceived them all. All lies and deception. Trump knows better! And as he says, the only ones you can trust are the Zionists! Thanks again for the $250 million, Miriam Adelson!
Expect a false flag followed by a massive propaganda blitz on the MSM and Truth Social accusing Iran of treachery and breaching the MOU. In other words, whatever dirty tricks are in your playbook, accuse the other side of those same dirty tricks. 95% of the people will believe you!
Does anyone other than Ilargi, Dr D and the MSM believe that this MOU is going to lead to a lasting peace?
Catherine Salgado, Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin, James Kunstler, Lindsay Graham, Ted Cruz, Benjamin Netenyahu and the other crazed Zionists don’t seem to be behind President Trump on this. Have any of them publicly praised the Trump announcement?
Jim Rickards did not drink the Kool Aid:
Raul says he is “not impressed.” With what? Alasdair Crooke’s analysis? Or Iran’s strategy?
I’d say both have been more effective than what our ruling elite Epstein class overlords were expecting.
What was that? Reminds me of when the pomeranian spots the neighborhood doberman while out on a walk.
For the first time in a long time, I found something edifying in the Debt Rattles. For all his character flaws, his failures to meet his core campaign promises, and his betrayal of those who got get him elected, I nevertheless applauded when President Trump walked out on Kristen Welker and called her out for her dishonesty. Bravo for that!
TAE used to cover weighty issues like bank rapacity, energy, the Five Star Movement, the Snowden revelations, wikileaks and Julian Assange, Syriza v the ECB, COVID, and the Ukraine war.
Now it’s the ballroom, the Kennedy Center, and the reflecting pool.
What happened?
It would be great to see an updated real life photo of Ilargi. Or a video. Or an original essay. Or an explanation of what’s happening with the soup kitchen in Athens. Or anything else to confirm that he is still alive, and in sound mind, and that this site has not been hijacked by Mossad to pursue a Zionist agenda.
What is the take home message from all the Marco Rubio testimony clips? We already know that are senators and representatives are a bunch of fools. We know that congressional testimony is all about grandstanding and theatrics. We know that even when there are damaging admissions in the testimony, there are never any consequences. The audience here already knows that. So what do you find newsworthy about this?
This audience also knows that Marco Rubio is a clever guy — certainly more so than his interrogators. But he is also part of the slimy neocon Zionist military industrial complex. He is no hero, and the fact that he outwitted some foolish corrupt politicians does not move the conversation forward.
Citizenx, enlighten us. What blogs/websites/ podcasts do you follow where you hold the hosts in high esteem? Where do you participate in the discussions praising the intelligence and analysis of the host and the other citizen commentators. Who, my friend, do you respect and show respect to?
The lead Debt Rattle today caught me off guard. I still cannot figure out if it was meant as a joke.
The genocidal Islamic regime of Iran … Really? I wasn’t aware that anyone has made accusations of genocide against Iran. Which of the minority ethnic groups in Iran are currently the victims of a genocide?
… the farce that the Iranian regime was willing to make peace … Pardon me, but wasn’t the real question what the terms of the peace would be? It seems to me that the farce was the fantasy land expectation that the Iranian regime would capitulate.
It is sad to see TAE promoting this nonsense. Ilargi says he wants to start a discussion, but it is hard to start a meaningful discussion when the commentariat does not take the articles seriously. So I have had to look elsehwere. Naked Capitalism has good Iran war coverage. So does the Judging Freedom podcast and its regular guests. Stanislav Krapivnik’s Youtube channel is good. Military Summary seems to have stopped its coverage of the Iran war for some reason, but maybe it will start up again if hostilities reach a certain threshold.
DBS, thanks for that enlightening link.
I still like Kunstler’s commentary about urban planning, making cities livable, and reviving rural America. I find many of the guests on his podcast to be interesting and unique characters. I like his “hope springs eternal” optimism that someone will eventually tackle the deep state (though he really drank the Koolaid in thinking that the Durham report would ever amount to anything). And I agree with him that Russia always wanted to be seen as “just another country” in Europe. But whenever Kunstler mentions Gaza, Israel, Muslims, Iran, or US policy with respect to any of the foregoing, I brace myself for whatever lunatic delusional thing is about to come out of his mouth (on the podcast) or appear on the next paragraph (on the blog).
Today’s Zerohedge headline: Trump Reportedly Ripped Netanyahu In Phone Call, Demanded Lebanon Truce: ‘You’re F**king Crazy, I’m Saving Your Ass’
Nothing to see here folks. Just a little miscommunication between the puppetmaster and the puppet that got twisted up in the strings. Everything is going according to plan. Let’s change the subject back to the ballroom. Or the Kennedy Center. Or whatever. This is what winning looks like.
@JohnDay
Dr John, I check in with your blog from time to time and appreciate the commentary and selection of articles you link you. And yet, and yet … and I am hesitant to say this because it seems so trivial … for me, the format is hard to read — especially when you switch to the heavy use of italics and omit the blank line between paragraphs. My brain switches gears and I usually stop reading at that point. Or I just skim the rest. I wonder if others feel the same way? Anyway, it’s your blog, and of course up to you how you format it, but that’s my reaction to what I regard as a good resource.
Wasn’t there some chatter here a few weeks ago about how Iran was on the ropes because it was running out of oil storage and had no choice but to cave because all of its oil fields would suffer irreparable damage otherwise? Funny how I have’n’t seen any follow up stories about that. Was it that a real story? Or was it just wishful thinking and propaganda? Has it been memory holed?
Lest Ilargi think that I am anti- Trump, here are more things that I give Trump credit for — I overlooked them before because they were so obvious to me and have not been controversial in the comments here. Trump gets point for:
Speaking out against the woke/trans mob.
Criticizing the Biden open border policy.
Criticizing mail in ballot fraud and calling for voter ID.@tdk
As a Bitcoiner, I am ideologically opposed to weaponizing the financial system and using sanctions as a cudgel. In that sense, I agree that Bessent is a bully and a war criminal — but he just continues on the path of his predecessors. I let him off lightly because I see him as competent in that role. Hegseth, in contrast, is an incompetent war criminal.
@tboc
I did not have any expectations that Trump would follow through on his campaign promises. The fact that Bitcoin has become more entrenched under his presidency is enough for me. If that is the only thing he accomplishes in these four years (and it look like it will be!), that is enough for me. Actually, come to think of it, Trump has accomplished something else, which was long overdue: He has let the world know that the US government is controlled by the Zionist pedophile mafia. Even though he is powerless to change that, the fact that he has confirmed it (thank you for the $250M, Miriam Adelson!) is a credit to him.And I was fine with what Trump promised on the campaign trial. I fully supported Trumps promises:
To drain the swamp (hasn’t happened)
To release the Epstein files (hasn’t happened)
To end the Ukraine war (hasn’t happened)
To avoid new wars (hasn’t happened)
To cut waste in the federal budget (hasn’t happened)
To end political lawfare (hasn’t happened)
To create a bitcoin reserve (that one has kinda sorta happened)Bondi was a disaster
Hegseth is a disaster
Patel is a disgrace
Lutnick is a disaster and an embarrassment
Bongino was a disaster
Rubio has led the resurgent neocons, undermining what Trump promised
Miller is a disgrace
Kennedy has been a disappointment, in part because is is neutered by Wiles
Gabbard was a disappointment
Bessent is the best of the bunchRaul, I actually appreciate reading people I disagree with, and I regularly check in with blogs that have a political orientation that I usually oppose. But there are some people who are downright despicable, and I put Ben Shapiro near the top of the list. The man is mean spirited and deceitful. To claim Charlie Kirk’s legacy for himself and distort Charlie’s message? I am thrilled to see Candace Owens go after him like a savage.
That TAE would feature the sinking propagandist and arrogant ethnosupremacist Ben Shapiro as one of the Debt Rattles is … disappointing.
But I appreciated the Calvin & Hobbes.
Caitlyn Johnstone is 100% correct in that essay.
The reason so many veterans have PTSD and end up killing themselves is because a lot of them did a lot of evil sh*t and it creates an internal cognitive dissonance that destroys them. Some crazy bastards — like Hegseth — are right at home in the military. They love the violence. They love the idea of officially sanctioned violence. They are intoxicated by the notion of unleashing “maximum lethality” against America’s perceived enemies. But others, people with a sense of morality and conscience — deep down they know they did evil, often unnecessarily, not in furtherance of any lofty American ideals, and often undermining the the long term interests of the US. For them, knowing what they themselves have done, but being unable to candidly, truthfully and critically talk about what the US miliary actually does, hearing the brainwashed utter the vapid words “thank you for your service” is actually a curse.
@WES
Robb Wolf suggests to try to get hold of a continuous glucose monitor if you can — even if it is just to use it for two weeks. In the US this requires a prescription, and unfortunately most doctors will not give you the prescription until after you have been diagnosed as diabetic. There are some low end products available without a prescription, but the quality tends to be very bad. I bought one of the needle-prick testing kits you are probably looking at. Those are a bit annoying, and they only give you data at a specific moment in time, but they are better than nothing and still quite affordable.Good to know you are still here V. Arnold.
@WES
I am not a doctor but I have played one on TV.If you have high blood sugar but are not yet diagnosed Type II diabetes, you might do some self-testing to figure out if there are specific foods that your body has a problem with. Rob Wolf covers this in his book Wired to Eat, where he goes over the research showing that inviduals process carbohydrates differently. He gives the example of the Olympic swimmer who for some unknown reason had a diabetic level response to eating lentils, but was generally fine eating other carbohydrates. Which would you guess is better from an insulin response perspective, cookies or a banana? He shows the data that one person had a blood sugar spike eating cookies but not the banana, and for another person it was the other way around. So his advice is to eat the carbs that your body handles well, and avoid the carbs that it does not. Plan two weeks where you eat your favorite carb foods for breakfast every day, one per day, eating nothing else for breakfast. You measure out the same carb content so that it is an apples to apples comparision. You check your blood sugar before the meal, then eat the meal, then check your blood sugar two hours later. It is likely that your body will process some foods better than others. For me, I learned that I often get a blood sugar spike that remains elevated after I eat blueberries — so these days I do not have blueberries as often as before.
Regarding your lipids and the statins, if you dig deep, you will find that many physicians question the lipid hypothesis for heart disease. That is a deep rabbit hole. Even if you conclude that higher lipids increase risk of a cardiac event, there is also evidence that higher lipids may be better from the perspective of all cause mortality. High LDL numbers, for example, are also associated with lower cancer incidence. Further, even if you conclude that lipids are problematic, they are only part of the equation. The analogy I heard is that lipids are the dynamite and systemic inflammation is the matchbook. If there is dynamite but no matches, you light be okay, just the same as if you have lots of matches but no dynamite. The risk is when both lipids and inflammation are both high. So did your doctor also check your inflammation? You want to ask for the HS-CRP and GlycA numbers so that you have a more complete picture.
Lastly, I recommend that you listen to a few podcasts featuring the neurosurgeon Jack Kruse, who questions the whole framework of what he calls “centralized medicine.” His view is that the most important thing to avoid chronic disease is sunlight, especially morning sunlight before 10am. He insists that sunlight regulates many of the body’s processes — it is like nature’s decentralized mechanic for the human body. He claims that the reason for the explosion of the chronic diseases is that we spend too much time indoors, under artificial light, which he claims is like living under an alien sun. Dr Kruse is not a fan of the widespread practice of prescribing statins.
I wonder if Dr John has any other suggestions?
Someone was asking about phoenixvoice a few days ago. Did she make an appearance?
I wonder whatever happened to long-time contributor and voice of reason V.Arnold in Thailand. Has anyone heard from him?
Version 1:
They shot him in the head.
Raided his home.
Impeached him twice.
Indicted him 91 times.
Threatened him with life in prison.And today — Trump is the President of the United States & undisputed Commander in Chief of the Republican Party.
Keep fighting. Keep going. We will win.
Version 2:
They fired missiles at him.
Bombed his home.
Maimed his body.
Killed 91 of his colleagues.
Threatened to annihilate his civilization.And today — Khamenei is the leader who punched the schoolyard bully right in the face. And now the bully does not know what to do.
Keep fighting. Keep going. Iran is winning.
