Jul 092016
 July 9, 2016  Posted by at 2:59 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »

Ann Rosener San Francisco, California. The Bank of America 1943

The post-Brexit ‘conversation’ in Britain is taking on grotesque proportions. Nobody seems to know how to react, at least not in a rational manner. They all look to be stuck in phase one of Kübler Ross’s Five Stages of Grief, i.e. Denial. Phase two is supposed to be Anger, and while there’s plenty of that, the shape is takes makes one think Angry Denial, instead of a progression between phases.

That is to say, I don’t think I’ve seen one voice expressing anger at themselves. It’s all somebody else’s fault. And it just keeps going. After Farage, Johnson, Gove et al had been blamed for all there’s wrong with everyone else’s lives, now the anger is pointed at the two women who are supposed to be competing for the poisoned chalice of UK prime minister. That both belong to the clique which has just been voted down 2 weeks ago doesn’t seem to bother anyone. That is not smart.

But if you must insist on calling 17 million of your neighbors ‘racist’ and ‘stupid’ just to feel better about yourself, perhaps there’s no denying that the Five Stages insist on taking their time. Problem with that is there is no such time, before you know what’s happened the nation will be stuck with another ‘leader’ that far too many people are not going to be listening to. A game of ‘who said what about whom’ is not helping.

A main issue would seem to be the Anglo(-Saxon) disease version 2.0, as I label it: whereas numerous countries around the world have seen new political parties rise to the fore, Britain, the US, Australia etc. are sticking with the same old same old, even if that makes them essentially ungovernable. What Britain needs is Podemos or a Five-Star movement, and so do the US, Canada, Australia.

The global economic system is now collapsing so overtly that nothing incumbent powers do can hide it any longer. A more flexible system, and a less ‘let’s stick with what we got’ view of life, can be very helpful during times like these, because they can ease the friction of established powers losing their power, no matter how painful that process still will be.

In many if not most countries there is hardly any difference anymore between what used to be right and left in politics. Barack Obama, Tony Blair and soon perhaps Hillary Clinton were voted in by what used to be the left wing of their countries, but they might just as well have come from the other side of the aisle. They all represent the establishment, not the people.

That has worked to an extent so far, but now it is over, simply because too many people have too little left to feel comfortable in their lives. In that regard it’s interesting to see how Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gets treated by his own party for wanting to take it ‘too far’ to the left, i.e. to represent the people. This may split up the party after all, and Corbyn would and should be happy to be rid of the right wing of the party, but he has caught Anglo Disease 2.0 too.

If Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn, even Donald Trump for that matter, were Italian, Spanish or even German, they would have started another party, not try to ‘reform’ an existing one. It doesn’t work, or it’s too much trouble trying. The disconnection is too great, between what the parties once stood for and stand for now, and between what they say and what they do.


Anglo Disease 1.0, by the way, is the government-induced blowing of housing bubbles in London, Vancouver, Sydney, Auckland etc etc. Take a good look at this graph and you can see what Beautiful Brexit (think I should patent the term?) is set to do to UK home prices: make then affordable again. Why do so many people apparently think that’s a terrible thing?

And Anglo Disease 1.0 is plenty contagious. Look at private debt levels in the Netherlands, where in the years after the graph below, 2015-6, home prices have kept rising and so have sales. Private debt at 800% (900% now?) of GDP is not a healthy thing no matter how you twist it, but they’ll all tell you they’re making smart investments and money hand over fist.

EA=Euro Area

Government and/or central bank induced bubbles are criminal. They make an economy look better temporarily, but people will have hefty prices to pay when they pop. And pop is just what Brexit does with the UK housing bubble. Whether that’s a good or a bad thing is perhaps up to one’s own personal judgment, but no thinking body would say yes when asked if they prefer living in a bubble.

For me, sitting inside a 10-year central bank liquidity bubble, I’m mostly afraid for those who have ever less left. The jobless, pensioners, anyone relying on benefits or fixed income, have yet to realize how much worse off they will be, but they will. ‘Homeowners’ with huge mortgages, even if they’re at low rates, will see ‘values’ plunge to the point where lenders will come with margin calls. And what then? More bank bail-outs?

Central banks and governments have been blowing their bubbles with one goal in mind: to keep incumbent powers in place. That part has succeeded, but it’s the only part, and the price to be paid by everyone else will be horrendous. And in the end the incumbents will be gone regardless, albeit with many pockets full of loot.

The last move the ‘rulers’ have left up their sleeves is perhaps to go to war with Russia, but I don’t see the people of Europe, despite 10+ years of heavy anti-Putin propaganda, allowing it. Europe might instead come to resemble the US, where people have another sort of battle to fight, a domestic one, which if not properly approached could lead to -more and increasing- very ugly confrontations.

Trump may not be the best person to lead his country into that, but the establishment, represented by Hillary, looks a much worse choice. Trump doesn’t owe nearly as much to those behind the curtains who have so much to lose. Hey, I wish there were better people available, but they’re not. Bernie Sanders has been outpropagandized and outmaneuvered, and he’s not perfect either.

America, too, will have to reinvent itself, just like so many nations across the planet. At least Trump will give the country a shot at not being dragged down into another war it can’t win, in or with Russia or China. Still, the art of propaganda on all sides and in all media has reached such dizzying heights and contortions that not a lot will seem obvious anymore.

One thing will though: increasing poverty. That will be the main factor to drive out the old and vote in the new. But the new will have two faces, one of which is Podemos, Sanders, Grillo or Corbyn, and one of which is some form or another of extreme right wing voices. Who come with their own Denial and Anger and other never completed Five Stages of Grief.



Elizabeth Kübler Ross: On Death and Dying – 1969

1 – Denial. Denial is a conscious or unconscious refusal to accept facts, information, reality, etc., relating to the situation concerned. …
2 – Anger.
3 – Bargaining.
4 – Depression. Also referred to as preparatory grieving. …
5 – Acceptance.