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World oil supply debate between ex-Shell chief and ASPO-USA professor

Feb 162012
 
 February 16, 2012  Posted by at 11:17 pm Energy

Energy12.jpgVideo of a spirited debate on peak oil between John Hofmeister (Shell) and Ted Patzek (University of Texas and ASPO-USA).

The former president of Shell Oil Company debated Tad Patzek, Chair, Dept. of Petroleum Engineering, University of Texas on Feb 14 at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. The subject was: "The World Oil Supply: Looming Crisis or New Abundance?"

Gasoline will hit $5 per gallon this year predicts John Hofmeister, former president of Shell Oil Company, the U.S. subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell. He points to rising demand by developing countries, especially China and India, and says that the recent increase in U.S. oil supply rates and decrease in demand is not enough to offset global trends, and that prices will continue to creep upward, unless there are major changes in public policy to substantially increase domestic U.S. supply.

Gasoline prices could suddenly spike even higher, and though increases in U.S. domestic supply may be important, no realistic U.S. increase will offset declining yields from other nations, according to Professor Tadeusz Patzek, chair of the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin and Vice-President of the ASPO-USA Board of Directors. He highlights that declining output from most oil-exporting nations over the past decade, in the face of rising global demand, is likely to create a lasting drop-off in global availability of oil-spelling serious consequences for all oil-importing nations, including the United States.

Regardless of who is right, this issue needs to be examined with seriousness and urgency, which has been the driving motivation behind the collaboration of multiple University of Wisconsin and local Madison groups that are co-sponsoring this event."

John Hofmeister
Former President, Shell Oil Company
Author, Why We Hate the Oil Companies
Member, US National Energy Security Council
Founder, Citizens for Affordable Energy https://www.citizensforaffordableenergy.org/

Dr. Tadeusz Patzek
Chair, Dept. of Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, University of Texas at Austin
Co-author, Drilling Down: The Gulf Oil Debacle and Our Energy Dilemma
Vice-President, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA
https://www.utexas.edu/opa/experts/profile.php?id=1411

About Dr. Alan Carroll (Moderator)
Professor, Dept. of Geoscience, University of Wisconsin – Madison
Associate Editor for the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin
Former Senior Geologist, Exxon Production Research
https://www.geology.wisc.edu/people/display.html?id=9

Sponsored by:
University of Wisconsin Energy Institute
Madison Committee on Foreign Relations
U-W Energy Hub
Madison Peak Oil Group
Wisconsin Union Directorate-Society & Politics Committee
U-W Center for World Affairs & the Global Economy
The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies (U-W)

 

Video:

by Karen Rybold-Chin

Home › Forums › World oil supply debate between ex-Shell chief and ASPO-USA professor

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  • February 16, 2012 at 11:17 pm #8624
    Raúl Ilargi Meijer
    Keymaster

    Video of a spirited debate on peak oil between John Hofmeister (Shell) and Ted Patzek (University of Texas and ASPO-USA). The former president of Shel
    [See the full post at: World oil supply debate between ex-Shell chief and ASPO-USA professor]

    February 17, 2012 at 2:35 am #782
    eugene
    Participant

    I thought Hofmeister was like listening to a politician. Sweeping generalizations, feeding into the national anti-government mood, lots of promises of a very rosy future and, most of all, let the oil companies do as they please.

    February 17, 2012 at 2:47 am #783
    mrawlings
    Member

    I agree Eugene.

    I’m only half way through and I really wish it could have been Stoneleigh up there utterly dismantling the Shell exec’s flimsy logic. I like Tad, he’s a smart and well-meaning fellow, but it seems that he’s reluctant to really lay it out for the audience:

    This here, this the SHIT. IT is bigger and nastier than anything the global economy has ever witnessed, and absolutely inevitable. This, this is the giant fan, it is the only thing standing between the SHIT and 3-4 billion people who are soon to find themselves up a creek without a paddle. Get yourself a paddle, and get the $%^& out of the way.

    February 17, 2012 at 6:29 am #785
    ExtraO
    Member

    At one point Mr. Hofmeister mentioned that Americans are paying for the fact that the Saudi King had bought social peace by -in effect- spreading the oil wealth around a bit more in his country. His presentation of it made it sound -on purpose I think- like Americans were somehow being swindled or victimized in the process by some towelhead. What would they prefer, that the Kingdom disintegrate from internal chaos just that much sooner thereby eliminating all access to Saudi oil?!? This is just more of the “how did OUR OIL get under THEIR sand” attitude of entitlement that so endears Americans to people of other countries around the world these days. Americans are being victimized, but not by the Saudis, rather they are victims of their own blind addiction to imported fuel. The Saudi King has every right to do whatever he wants with his money and charge whatever he damn well pleases for the oil he sells to get it, and his subjects are FAR MORE entitled to getting a cut of that action than American motorists are entitled to perpetually cheap gas so they can keep livin’ large while they run down to the 7-11 in the Suburban for a brew on their way to junior’s soccer practice. Oh! what a glorious crash it is going to be.

    February 17, 2012 at 7:39 pm #791
    Anonymous
    Inactive

    The only way I can describe Hofmeister is to quote Bugs Bunny; “”What a maroon, what an ignoranimous!” I have to say it was especially painful listening to his closing remarks. The guy obviously talks out his arse without the benefit of fact or notes. Hey Johnny, $7.00 – $8.00 gasoline/diesel? Yeah, so what? I’ve been paying that here in Europe for 6 years. Of course, unlike America, no one here drives a vehicle that weighs 5000+ lbs., has a 5+ liter engine, makes enough horsepower to tow a small house and gets crappy mileage. And that’s just to take their whale butts to work. We also have something called high prices for consumer goods (blame energy taxes). What that means is we consume less. For most each purchase is based on need, not want. And we fix things here, what a concept! I know North Americans would find these horribly difficult circumstances absolutely unacceptable. Especially the Hofinator.

    Tad is right, American whales will become dolphins, like it or not.

    BTW Mr. Dumeister – NASCAR stock cars don’t burn methanol, they starting using an 85/15 gasoline/ethanol mix just last year Before that it was simply high-octane unleaded gasoline. Indycar uses methanol.

    February 17, 2012 at 9:13 pm #792
    MR166
    Member

    The real problem is that the US has been divided into 2 sides, a North and a South, just like the Civil War. The South (less liberal) wants energy at some environmental cost and the North (more liberal) wants to maintain an existence with no environmental impact at all. The North thinks that this environmental cost is too high and the South thinks that we will all starve if this price is not paid.

    In reality, the amount of oil I use to heat my home and run my car is inconsequential in comparison to the amount of energy used to run industry, keep me employed and grow my food.

    Industry and farming spends every waking hour trying to lower costs and by definition, energy usage.

    Thus, I vote for more drilling until such time as we find alternate sources of energy to fulfill our needs. If we never find those sources of energy welcome to the 1800s and the population that it could support.

    February 17, 2012 at 11:34 pm #794
    Musburger
    Member

    “At one point Mr. Hofmeister mentioned that Americans are paying for the fact that the Saudi King had bought social peace by -in effect- spreading the oil wealth around a bit more in his country. His presentation of it made it sound -on purpose I think- like Americans were somehow being swindled or victimized in the process by some towelhead. What would they prefer, that the Kingdom disintegrate from internal chaos just that much sooner thereby eliminating all access to Saudi oil?!?”

    IF I recall, Hofmeister stated that the majority of countries have insane policies and are not effectively managing production. While this is undoubtedly true, I got the feeling Hofmeister – and probably the US policy planners – would not at all be opposed to having the US eventually take over the production of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the ‘stan countries, etc. Kind of Cheneyesk, you might say. And by the looks of things, that is exactly where this is going. Our military is definitely laying the ground work for such an undertaking and has been for several years now. Plunder the population, extract resources, and take profit. But none of the spoils will find their way to the general public.

    February 17, 2012 at 11:39 pm #795
    Babble
    Participant

    There are some new sources of energy and fuel. Carbon Sciences (CABN) has improved catalysts for turning Nat Gas + CO2 into liquid fuel. For heat, which takes a high percentage of energy there is the “cold fusion” reaction of E-Cat which should be available to buy this year. This can also be used for CHP after further development. Combine this with higher efficiency and we might have a chance. Remember that using more oil will continue to accelerate global warming.

    February 18, 2012 at 12:05 am #796
    MR166
    Member

    Yea, right! If only the US was bright enough to take over some oil producing countries. Look at Iraq, 100s of billions spent there and I cannot think of one US oil company that has obtained an oil lease there.

    I also found the statement concerning payments that the Saudi King made to his people strange. It inferred that the rights to the oil belonged to the US. Saudi Arabia can do what ever it wants to do with the oil income.

    February 18, 2012 at 12:08 am #797
    MR166
    Member

    Cold Fusion——-What a laugh. I have some magic beans for sale if you are interested.

    February 18, 2012 at 12:15 am #798
    JoeP
    Member

    Cold Fusion debate? I’d like to see it…don’t know much ’bout it.

    February 18, 2012 at 12:31 am #799
    MR166
    Member

    A scam artist named Rossi claims to have developed a multi megawatt class cold fusion device that runs on Hydrogen. He claims that it just costs a few dollars a year to run.

    If he had such a device he would be a billionair overnight. GE and others would buy the rights and be selling the product as we speak. Natural Gas and Oil futures would be selling for next to nothing.

    This is a total scam perpetuated by a scientifcally ignorant press.

    February 18, 2012 at 1:02 am #800
    JoeP
    Member

    Time to step up Babble…unless you want us to consider that maybe you are just googling.

    February 18, 2012 at 5:03 pm #807
    Supergravity
    Participant

    Hofmeister spends some minutes denouncing OPEC as the most evil cartel in the history of evil, but then utterly fails to identify the Fed as a cartel. According to him, the Fed is an ‘independent regulatory agency’, and he mentions how it effectively solved the small problem back in 2008, hilarious dissonance.
    Central planning of energy should dictate the flow of innovation for the industry, he says. I always assumed that innovation cannot be planned at all.

    February 18, 2012 at 7:07 pm #810
    DIYer
    Participant

    “OPEC, were it present in the United States, would be declared illegal” Oh, noes, he wants to lock up the Texas Railroad Commission! That was the business model for OPEC, back in the ’50s.

    The Hoff sounds like Rush Limbaugh, pounding on the lectern and ranting about “American Exceptionalism”. And he’ll go off in six or seven irrelevant directions about the hydrogen economy, tar sands, hydrofracking, biofuels, coal conversion, etc. with a total absence of facts or analysis.

    Haha, then he goes on to congratulate the financial industry for its central planning!
    So:
    – Oil industry, central planning bad;
    – Financial central planning good.
    … got it.

    February 20, 2012 at 10:07 pm #858
    Lindy1933
    Participant

    This morning the price of regular was $3.79.9 up some 24 cents (+6%) in the last 12 days.

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    boko
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