Dec 062013
 
 December 6, 2013  Posted by at 9:27 am Finance


Maurer Miss Universe June 1928
3rd International Pageant of Pulchritude and 9th Annual Bathing Girl Revue, Galveston, Texas

Last week, I was reading parts of a report issued by Japanese investment bank Nomura, which started out saying that the “Global Financial Crisis” is over. If I lay out a statement like that side by side with a lot of other things I see, I can only conclude that Nomura doesn’t reside in the same universe I do. Well, it’s either that or they have the idea that a financial crisis is something that exclusively plays down in, and affects, the “world” of investors. If the latter is true, that would of course be some pretty myopic thinking.

So I’m left with just one possible conclusion: that we live in parallel universes. And I understand from perusing the notions about such universes in physics theories that they tend to include every possible universe. Therefore, if some of the best and brightest physicists who live in the same universe that I do tell me that there are other universes in which Elvis is very much alive, I must acknowledge the possibility that there are also some in which the Global Financial Crisis is indeed over.

That still leaves me with the fact that I live in the universe I live in, and not in Nomura’s one. And even though the theory states that I may live in many others as well, that part of the theory is simply not of much practical use. So, given the fact that Nomura’s analysts write reports about a universe that may be parallel to mine but is decidedly different, these reports don’t seem to be of much practical use either. I therefore hope these analysts won’t be too disappointed that I don’t intend to turn to them for advice.

They picked a nice title:

The end of the end of the world

There wasn’t any memo, but FYI the Global Financial Crisis is over. Not that clocks have simply rewound to 2006, but: the US property market has been recovering for no less than 20 months, the US household balance sheet is largely repaired, the renminbi is stronger and the US-China current account imbalance vastly reduced, China is grasping the nettle of structural reform, European core-vs-periphery cost differentials have substantially narrowed, and Europe is growing again.

Looking forward, we thus see 2014 as a year in which macrosystemic risks will not dominate equity performance – unfinished QE ‘taper’ business notwithstanding – but equally as a result, a year in which returns will not be spirited along by ‘risk compression’ and multiple expansion either. Rather, global stocks in 2014 will stand or fall in large part simply on whether they deliver earnings. The good news is, 2014 should serve up a reasonably robust growth platform for global corporate earnings: Our economists expect global nominal GDP growth to rise to 7.0% next year from 2013’s 6.1% — leaving our strategy preferences inclined toward cyclical- and reflation-sensitive sectors. But the acceleration will be unevenly skewed toward the Developed Market economies, while Emerging Market growth plateaus and China’s growth further moderates (to 6.9% in real terms).

Looking toward 2014, we believe much of the ‘deep value’ argument for stocks has now played out as the Global Equity Risk Premium has fallen to just 0.4 standard deviations currently vs. its late-2011 high of 2.2 standard deviations. With this, global equities have outperformed the aggregate global bond index since mid-2012 by a sizeable 45% over the same time period.

From here, equities will increasingly require more of a growth rationale for upside, rather than the macro-risk compression of 2012-13. The fact is, after fairly undramatic passages (by 2010-12 standards) of such episodes this year as the Cyprus banking failure and October’s US fiscal standoff, very few developments from here are likely to rise to the level of true systemic contagion threats. But this also begs the question where the superlative earnings growth will be found.


Surely the Nomura people are aware of the fact that without the QE “family” of global measures, which in essence take wealth away from the public and give it to the financial system, broad asset valuation would be hugely different from what it is now? And while it is true that QE thus doesn’t entail new overall debt creation, it does create new debt for one segment of society: the public. That same public is good for 70% of GDP in the US, and a few percentage points less in other countries. And if you put more forward pressure on those 70%, how you’re going to create GDP growth is a really obvious and really big question mark. In my universe, that is.

The poster child for optimism of the blind variety, but in my view also the poster child for a mental and financial bubble, is Britain. In that regard, the Financial Times seems to play on the same team, or live in the same universe, as Nomura. And for a newspaper that’s got to be more worrisome than for an investment bank that simply talks it book.

UK revival leaves envious eurozone in shade

The strength of the UK economy is drawing covetous and occasionally envious glances from the eurozone as investors from around the world size up the opportunity presented by Britain’s recovery.

The UK economic revival has taken almost everyone by surprise, confounding domestic and international forecasting groups. Having failed to predict the turn, most explain the sudden resurgence as a rebounding of confidence linked to the removal of previous impediments to growth, such as weak banks and fears of a eurozone crisis.

Some economists believe the UK will be the world’s fastest growing developed economy over the next five years. This is a tempting prospect for foreign corporates and investors, but they are weighing up potential opportunities against the political uncertainty of an EU referendum, as the coalition government staggers from one populist measure to another. [..]

Eric Chaney, chief economist at Axa, the French-based insurer, says he and his team think the British economy is more likely to surprise on the upside next year, partly due to more robust credit growth and a flexible labour market. [..]


Here the FT starts to defy its own chosen title for the article. And it does more of the same later on:

There is one stark exception – Germany – where the prevailing opinion among economists is sceptical. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, said that for German businesses “the UK is not on the list of top places to expand. The sentiment, especially in Germany, is that the UK is blowing up a property bubble, and it will end in tears. If it sucks in imports, we are happy to supply them – but we don’t think the UK is a wonder economy.” [..]

Outside the eurozone, some US investors also have a sceptical slant on the UK recovery. Marshall Stocker, global equity strategist at Eaton Vance, which has $280bn under management, says that while there is evidence of “onshoring” of manufacturing in the UK, the country’s exports had remained weak.

“To say we are off to the races in terms of GDP growth in the UK would be irresponsible,” Mr Stocker says. “[It] has been driven by increases in household spending, but there has been no real wage growth and it is very difficult to see sustainable economic growth until workers are feeling the benefit of a growth cycle. Household spending seems to be up because of confidence from housing, but one must worry about a bubble. The confidence that comes from the asset value of a house may not be there in the future.”


A “flexible labor market” is a questionable parameter. If it means it’s easier to fire people, it’s at best a toss up, with workers on the short end of the stick. “More robust credit growth” is not even questionable. With record debt levels, more debt is not a solution, it’s merely something that may make one look good until tomorrow morning (or the next election). It’s also what lies at the basis of the property bubble (and not just in the UK). Even the Bank of England has called a halt to what the government has been trying to do:

Bank of England steps in amid fears of a new house price bubble

The governor of the Bank of England on Thursday reined in the mortgage market as he sought to prevent five years of ultra-low interest rates and George Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme from fuelling a pre-election housing bubble.

Amid concerns that the UK is in the early stages of a new property boom, Mark Carney announced he was refocusing the Funding for Lending (FLS) scheme that gave lenders financial incentives to provide home loans. The governor said it was “no longer appropriate or necessary for us to have our foot on the accelerator, better to shift into neutral”.


But as property prices go up, wages go down. How long can this last?

British wage-earners have taken £5,000 pay cut in five years, figures show

Britain’s wage-earners have taken a £5,000 pay cut in the past five years, according to government figures, suggesting ministers will struggle to engender a feelgood factor before the 2015 general election. The figures published by the Office for National Statistics show wages and salaries for the middle fifth of non-retired households fell from £33,100 in 2007-08 to £28,300 in 2011-12.


Wage earners lost 15% of their income. Young workers, who have much lower incomes to begin with, lost 12% since 2008.

Young workers’ pay has tumbled since financial crash, says thinktank

The pay of workers in their 20s has tumbled by almost 12% since the peak of the recession, according to a leading thinktank. The Resolution Foundation said younger workers faced an almost unprecedented squeeze on both the wages and employment chances four years after the financial crash.


The same Resolution Foundation has another “nice” stat in its report:

Low Pay Britain 2013

Low Pay Britain shows that 4.8 million Britons (20% of all employees) earn below the Living Wage – a leap from 3.4 million (14% in 2009 – at the height of the recession.


UK incomes are down 15%. 20% of employees are below the “Living Wage”. Now please explain to me how the economy can be doing well, as the UK government and (most of) its media are proclaiming.

Oh wait, silly me. What am I thinking? Of course! Robust credit growth! Curiously, the following Telegraph article came with two titles. Once you opened the article, it was called: “UK mortgage approvals near six year high in October”, but the link on the business page was different. Can we read something into that?

Growing concern as Britons run up an average of £22,000 debt each

Household debt touched a record high of £1.43 trillion in October, surpassing the levels seen at the start of the financial crisis. Amid renewed concerns that Britain’s economic upturn is being fuelled by debt, Bank of England data yesterday showed total net lending in the UK increased by £1.7bn in October, following an rise of £2.2bn in September. Including mortgage payments, Britons now owe a total of £1.4296 trillion, or around 22,000 for every man, woman and child in the UK. The previous high was £1.4294 trillion in September 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed.


I guess if you take away 15% of people’s wages, but you still manage to spend by convincing them to ratchet up their debts ever higher, you sort of have it made as a government, right? Though it might be better if you could get everyone to agree.

Debt could trigger next crash, says thinktank

A growing band of credit-hungry consumers could trigger another financial crash in 10 years as banks, payday lenders and credit card companies add to the debts of low and middle income earners, a leftwing thinktank has warned.

The Smith Institute said policies adopted by the government and regulators since the crash had failed to prevent an escalation of debt among vulnerable younger workers and young families keen to establish a home and live independently.

In a report, Tomorrow’s Borrowers: Personal debt by 2025, the thinktank suggests that urgent action is needed “to stop the UK sleep walking into a major personal debt crisis“.


Too late for stopping that one, I would think. Now, you may claim this is all just Britain, but does anyone really believe the US housing market is not experiencing a similar bubble? Or that American wage or debt developments have been more benign than the British? Don’t think so. There are plenty examples like this one:

Average US student loan debt: $29,400

Student loan debt continues to pile up on America’s college graduates, topping an average $29,000 per student last year. The average debt load for the class of 2012 was $29,400 – up more than 10% from the previous year, according to a report released Wednesday by the Institute for College Access & Success’ Project on Student Debt.

At the same time, colleges across the country have been hiking tuition and fees and families’ incomes have been shrinking, student loan debt has risen at an average rate of 6% per year from 2008 to 2012, the report found. Seven in 10 seniors graduated with student loan debt, and a fifth of that debt was owed to private lenders, which often charge high interest rates.


And we haven’t even talked about the biggest spoke in the “GFC is over” optimism wheel.

Eurozone youth unemployment reaches record high of 24.4%

The crisis facing the younger generation across the Eurozone worsened last month as youth unemployment hit a new record high of 24.4% with under-25s in Spain, Italy and Portugal finding it harder to get jobs.

The grim news on on employment came as the Netherlands was stripped of its prized AAA credit rating despite the country’s recent exit from a year-long recession.

The Eurozone jobless data showed Spain’s youth unemployment rate has now increased to 57.4%, only marginally below Greece’s August high of 58% – which remains the highest rate of youth unemployment for any country in the eurozone’s history. Italy’s youth unemployment rate rose to 41.2%, from 40.5% the previous month. In Portugal, it rose to 36.5% from 36.2%.

The startling figures from southern Europe contrast with rates in the north where Germany has a 7.8% youth unemployment rate and the Netherlands an 11.6% rate.


US youth unemployment was at 16.3% in July 2013. Not Greece or Spain, but a whole lot worse than Germany or the Netherlands. Feel lucky, punk?

If for a second we can delve into the worst case in Europe, don’t let’s forget that Nomura said “European core-vs-periphery cost differentials have substantially narrowed, and Europe is growing again.”. Athens University economics professor Yanis Varoufakis:

What Europeans should know about the current situation in Greece

It takes a passionate disregard for the truth to suggest that Greece is recovering. Investment has fallen by 18% since the dismal levels of 2011/12, credit to non-financial institutions is 20% down from the asphyxiating depths of 2012, poverty has reached record heights, and is still growing, employment is at levels that are best narrated in the style of Steinbecks Grapes of Wrath, public debt is exceeding the worst expectations of the greatest pessimists, private debt is reaching for the sky at a time when the collateral posted (e.g. house prices) are sinking fast, the governments tax take is trailing the worst forecasts.

The list of woes is endless and the so-called Greek Success Story, or Greek-covery, reflects nothing except the determination to reverse the truth, Goebbels-like, by those who insisted on the policies which resulted in this debacle.


All this leads to ever lower pay for those who even have jobs …

The price we pay for poverty wages is too high

Living on low pay in 2013 is a rough and all too common experience, but being stuck on poverty-pay for a decade or more is tougher still. Yet for all the talk in Westminster about living standards, and the growing recognition that nearly five million workers are paid less than the living wage, there is very little understanding of the fact that many people survive on low pay for years on end. Low pay is too often thought of in terms of a series of snapshots rather than a motion picture.

… many cling to the complacent view that, yes, there is a lot of low paid work but it overwhelmingly afflicts young people before they go on to earn more (never mind the fact that the earnings of a typical twentysomething have plummeted by more than 12% since 2009). Poverty-pay, according to this argument, is a rite of passage, to be endured then exited. Over a lifetime, things even out.

Except, it turns out, they don’t. [..] If we look at the last decade, the great majority – nearly three-quarters – who started off on low pay failed to escape it. More than a quarter (28%) didn’t leave low pay at any point; 44% moved in and out of low pay but didn’t exit it; only 18% broke free of low pay altogether. Half of those stuck on low pay are aged between 40 and 60.


… while pensions go up in smoke (let Detroit’s bankruptcy be an example for you).

Youth unemployment will lead to widespread poverty in old age – OECD

High levels of youth unemployment will lead to widespread poverty in old age as young people struggle to save for retirement, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. A new breed of private pension schemes, which are built on monthly contributions, will be undermined if younger workers stay unemployed for long periods, said the Paris-based thinktank.

[..] the UK has pursued every avenue to both improve the lives of older people and cut the cost of providing them with a decent income, said the OECD, [which wrote] in its report Pensions at a Glance 2013 that the UK had raised the average incomes of people above the retirement age and introduced plans to expand coverage through the workplace pension savings scheme Nest, which is expected to automatically enroll 10 million workers over the next three years.

But it said the knock-on effect of policy reforms, many of which protect the benefits accrued by older workers at the expense of young employees, was that in many OECD member countries younger workers were now more at risk of poverty than retirees.


Not only is the Global Financial Crisis not over by a long shot, it’s deepening and worsening for most people. And they haven’t even found out at what price, which they will be on the hook for, their governments have shielded the banks from the fall-out of their own losses, an ultimately useless course of action because of the size of these losses. More unemployment, lower wages, more poverty, these are not temporary phenomena, they are set to be everyday reality for fast growing groups of people for many years to come.

And while I’m sure there are different opinions on the matter, in the end you cannot solve a financial crisis by unloading its consequences on whoever happens to be weak and have no voice. By trying it regardless, our governments and other “leaders” are not just creating two different worlds, but different universes. However, if for a moment we allow ourselves to still see just one universe, it becomes painfully obvious that Nomura’s “the Global Financial Crisis is over” is a nonsensical claim.

Home Forums Everything Is Fine In A Parallel Universe

This topic contains 11 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by  Greenpa 5 years, 8 months ago.

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  • #9617

    Maurer Miss Universe June 1928 3rd International Pageant of Pulchritude and 9th Annual Bathing Girl Revue, Galveston, Texas Last week, I was reading p
    [See the full post at: Everything Is Fine In A Parallel Universe]

    #9619

    Apologies for the mishaps in publishing an earlier version of this article. We’re working hard to correct a number of errors that occurred during the conversion from Joomla to WordPress.

    #9620

    khiori
    Participant

    Thanks for delineating these discrepancies so well. I too notice the inconsistencies in many economic articles. It leaves one puzzled when the title/opening paragraph talks about improvement, then further down are statistics that totally belie that (like rising unemployment numbers). Often only a couple data points are used from distant points in time with nothing in-between (i.e. a 0.3% recent increase that is “up” from a 0.4% decrease “last year” in some quarter???). Seriously.

    As a scientist I want to chide them for not providing a complete set of data points, arranged in a graph, covering the whole timeline (even 5 or 10 years!) so that readers may judge “trend” for themselves. Bloomberg is guilty of this daily. If I tried to publish a paper with figures like that it would be rejected instantly.

    Do most people only read the first paragraph? Am I too OCD? Parallel universe is good description. This comes under “Things That Make You Go HUH?”

    #9621

    Greenpa
    Participant

    “So I’m left with just one possible conclusion: that we live in parallel universes. ”

    Very true; and if I may add the view from my Antarean anthropologist friends; one of the (many) differences between them is: in your Universe, the function of public essays is to communicate “Truth”, from the point of view of the writer; in the Japanese banker’s Universe, the function of public essays is to influence human behavior, and “Truth”, from any perspective, is not on the list of ingredients. 🙂

    #9622

    jal
    Participant

    “Everything Is Fine In A Parallel Universe”

    Yes.

    All of the worldly troubles are in another parallel universe.

    I hear reports that many other people are experiencing one step forward and two steps back.

    Unusual and unexpected weather events, revolts, repression, starvation, loss of income burdensome debts.

    Things are changing and getting more difficult for many people.

    Parallel universes are the individual future projections of the present.

    #9623

    rapier
    Participant

    From perspective of the US elites, the language of large banks who are Fed Primary Dealers, the apparent disconnect is an illusion born of what isn’t said. What isn’t said is that a large lower class and a small very wealthy upper class is the ideal society. Such is a conservative society.

    It is a liberal idea that the majority of people can live in relative prosperity. This worms its way into the AE narrative in interesting ways. We know that prosperity for the majority on the traditional model is going to be impossible. Now we may not like the shape of the Conservative narrative but in general it is more realistic. If what passes for liberals now were more honest they would argue that we are still very wealthy and there is enough to go around to reverse the slide of the middle and lower classes but they can’t say that because it means redistribution, never mind that the wealth has already been redistributed to the top, so they cling to growth. For the most part ‘growth’ spurred by monetary means. Which of course leads to more unequal distribution, in a vicious circle.

    Meanwhile Conservatives revel in thoughts of real suffering for the lower class for they believe that the fear of loss of everything will make people more conservative.

    In the Conservative ideal people know their place. They know their class and expect to stay there. De Tocqueville addressed this in his Democracy in America from the perspective of a noble, a Conservative. He thought people would be happier and better served if they accepted their class and did not strive so much. Isn’t this how all those seeking a more sustainable simpler maybe debt free life embracing?

    In general the political economy in the US is now prepared to abandon, as Mitt Romney identified 47% but let’s say half. For the 5th to 7th decile things will be OK and for the rest on up they will be great. This is the Nomura perspective.

    It needs mention that in the US this embrace of a lower class in insuperable from race. Recall that non whites are approaching a majority here. It is no coincidence that this is the number now embraced.

    #9624

    John Day
    Participant

    “When Worlds Collide” might be the follow-on to “Parallel Universe”, but when will those worlds collide?
    Hugh Hendry has been a perma-bear, and he’s right, and we all know it, but what is he seeing, which makes him publicly and overtly change his tack completely?
    This is an investing tactical change, not a strategic change of view, as I take it.
    This is, as I read his twisted-tongue-in-cheek, a limited-term capitulation to the ability of central bankers to blow one more big asset bubble for a couple more years.
    The other option is that they can’t, and we get collapse sooner, much sooner. YMMV.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-06/hugh-hendry-throws-bearish-towel-his-full-must-read-letter

    #9625

    John Day
    Participant

    Rapier, Jon Stewart is in agreement with what you say here. He lets the “conservative” elites paint the background, while he provides the accents, and takes the pope’s side, too.
    He’s at his deflationary best here.

    #9628

    zander.c
    Participant

    Hi Folks
    Long long time no post.
    However….. Everyone MUST check out the chart posted at john ward’s “the slog” this morning, absolutely incredible, and enough to drag me out of hibernation.
    Still following TAE faithfully as always.
    Back to slumber.
    Z

    #9629

    Hey zander, good to see you. Got a URL for that?

    #9630

    zander.c
    Participant

    Yeah Ilargi sorry, haha I never DID learn how to do that it’s :
    CRASH2: ARE ALL BETS OFF AFTER SPRING 2014?

    It’s the first chart at the top of the post not the Rydex money market one later on.
    The correlation is jaw dropping.

    Z

    #9706

    Greenpa
    Participant

    Rapier, and other folks- one of the consistent problems in all dialogues on “poverty” is the lack of any consensus definition of what “poverty” IS. Arguments go on for decades- with parties unaware they’re not even talking about the same thing.

    I’m not going to suggest a good universal definition- that would be pointless at the moment, no one is listening. But by chance I ran into a stellar example of the problem last night. It was my 8 year old daughter’s turn to choose a movie- and she chose “Fiddler On The Roof”, which she’s seen before. I liked that; her taste is improving.

    Early in the movie is the long complaint from Tevye “If I were a rich man”. He makes it clear that in his mind, he lives in grinding, desolate, poverty. This while he is putting away his horse, in his barn, feeding his chickens, then delivering with his wagon- his milk, butter, and cheese from his cows to his village, and returning home to his house.

    Um, excuse me? By any rational standards, I would contend that defines great wealth, right there. But his perception is that he is enormously oppressed by inescapable desperate poverty- and in general, audiences easily share that assessment, believe it, and sympathize greatly with this poor, poor man.

    Anyone who has seen poverty in China or India or Bangladesh – necessarily has a completely different definition of what poverty is.

    I realize that it’s often a cheap tactic to say “ok, define that term!” in a debate- but in this case, I think no useful conversations can go on without SOME agreements on what we’re talking about. The UN has been trying to work on < $1/day and <$2/day measurements (about 1 Billion people live between $1.25 and $2; another billion live below $1.25; statistics vary). I think that’s a good attempt. But virtually NO one in the USA has any concept at all of what living on that kind of money means.

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