Debt Rattle April 5 2020

 

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  • #56671

    Pietro Lorenzetti Jesus enters Jerusalem 1320 (Basilica of St Francis of Assisi) “And when he was come into Jerusalem, all the city was stirred, sayin
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle April 5 2020]

    #56672
    Dr. D
    Participant

    On #AntiLogos, anything, ANYthing but morality:

    “Parents with their children, home haircuts and no affairs: the virus has forced us to live in a weirdly moralistic way “

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/01/parents-with-their-children-home-hair-cuts-and-no-affairs-the-virus-has-forced-us-to-live-in-a-weirdly-moralistic-way

    Lamenting people growing gardens, children safe at home with parents, being unable to have affairs and hook up on Tinder. Yes, we’ve reached the stone age. This obviously is a “Handmaid’s Tale” oppressive religious morality, not the utopia of far leftists like: Permaculturists. Hippies. Dear God, anything but that. Also she seems to think the mildest turn to morality will have us in caves by candlelight, a true acolyte of the monoreligion of Progress.

    Aeon won’t let down their god. They’ll hold the banner:
    “Is Marriage Over?”
    https://aeon.co/essays/marriage-is-dead-long-live-marriage-how-will-we-couple-up?

    Only for Guardian reporters and Harvard professors like you. Weirdos. The rest of us live on the shoulders of 100,000 years of ancestors with things that work. So…now you’re unmarried, have no one, and Tinder and the Nightclubs are closed, and you have a delirious fever. Enjoy!

    But St. Greta and the disciples should be happy. No industry, no carbon use, people dying everywhere. Now that IS a Utopia long discussed and desired. Oh wait, do people now see what we were saying about how it will kill everyone? Encourage a Green Totalitarianism of vaccine-passport tracking of neofeudalism and social oppression for 1,000 years? Like France protested for a year and China is protesting now?

    UN Blasted As “Absurd & Immoral” For Appointing China To Key UN Human Rights Panel”

    Yes, “Experts”, “Authorities” U.N., giving the influence over human rights to countries with open concentration camps, slavery, organ trafficking, biowarfare, and genocide. They got their rotation after Saudi Arabia and Sudan. And just think: then America will get it! Wait ‘til they turn their genocidal, social-tracking repression cannons on us – nothing happens. Beat ya to it.

    Back to your regularly scheduled Plandemic, I look forward to getting real numbers and reviewing Keen’s thesis after this is over. So, Keen, unlike theory, the real world is not infinite. A some point 300 million Americans will have had it. So…exponential function? And when we compare with 2019 all-in (health) mortality what will we see? Oh, probably Hong Kong flu levels, something, but a few thousand killed by flu and tens of thousands killed by the economy and subsequent war. #Helping! See you then!

    (P.S. again, “flattening the curve” will barely help. You just take a hardship of 6 months and drag it out for 6 years, while erasing freedom and privacy from the earth. Perhaps there’s a third way?)

    Reporting Estimated Rather Than Confirmed Infections Might Save Lives (M.) “

    Testing was a) proven false and b) according to Australia Sun, contaminated with covid itself (can you get it from the test?) But clearly SOMEBODY’S testing, since as of Friday, everybody suddenly had numbers about the exact hour of the peak. Care to stop lying and cough it up now? A: Never. The only enemy is the #Truth.

    So given no testing AND false testing for what testing we have, this genius is going to “estimate” (guess) and thereby we’ll be better informed. He will be welcome at the BLS and Federal Reserve Statistics Department.

    “Mainland China reported 30 new coronavirus cases”

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    And it gets better: they say it’s our fault!

    China Floods Europe With Defective Medical Equipment (Kern)

    Yeah. They so funny. And probably the source of the testing feedstock that “accidentally” was contaminated with the virus they started we were trying to fight. Oopsie! AND some doctors died. AND they threatened to obey or they’d cut us off medically, AND they delayed the truth to pilfer a few million masks we need, AND are crowing about how it will genocide Japan, AND… But they’re good old folks. Best ever. Ask the WHO!

    The end of the health care for profit model, “

    I don’t know how to address this. Until the government gets out of this monopoly with guaranteed profits for no risk, we can’t find and end to the profit model. For centuries hospitals were non-profit, until government “helped” in 1994 and ran them all out of existence, forcing the profit-only model on America with a public-private monopoly. So you’re saying the government is going to stop itself?

    “The FBI and DOJ made up this ‘case,’ threatened to indict his son the next day if he did not plead guilty, hid–and are still hiding–the evidence that shows he is innocent, and they knew that all along..”

    Prettymuch par for the course for the FBI, average day’s work. That’s why they were formed and why J. Edgar started it: to blackmail and arrest dissenting power-people. Working as designed. But you think we should trust them because they’re an Authority™. “My Authority, right or wrong.”

    Apparently the same in England, with Royal families, Jimmy Saville, P.M. Heath, and everybody else.

    #56673
    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    Ilargi, I find your summary concerning NY misleading because it is not clear whether the tests performed is a cumulative number or refers to the number performed within the last 24 hrs. That makes a huge distinction conderning the interpretation of the given figures.
    Is it possible to provide the data for say the last 7 days given for each day the new “cases” and the number of tests performed. Then by looking at the change of the fraction of positives over the time period, we would get a better picture of the “epidemic”.

    #56674
    zerosum
    Participant

    I suspect the lack of understanding of the exponential function may lead to many people saying more people die of normal flu.
    Lets find and compare the data.

    all-cause mortality
    You can only die once.
    https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
    Mortality monitoring in Europe
    Welcome to the EuroMOMO website. We publish weekly bulletins of the all-cause mortality levels in up to 24 European countries or regions of countries. The weekly bulletin is published every Thursday around noon.
    The data starts at 2016 week 05
    The data ends at 2020 week 13
    So far, there has not been an excess of the all-cause mortality levels
    Lets find more data and compare.
    Human societies will be in declining trouble when there are more death than birth. (all-cause mortality)

    Countries to keep an eye on: France, UK!, Turkey, Belgium,. Portugal, Brazil, Romania, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Mexico.
    My list includes India, Africa, and all the poor slums

    #56675

    zero,

    The Dutch statistics bureau a few days ago found over 600 “unexplained” deaths, i.e. above average but not contributed to COVID19. But then -of course- they say they’ll include them in the numbers but don’t say when.

    All the uncertainties combined are a giant boon for politics: things always look better in the dark. The Dutch government even officially says that numbers are much higher than reported because they hardly test anyone.

    There is a problem with that which they don’t understand: they can’t re-open the economy until everyone has been tested. They will find that out. But by then, people will have been locked down longer than needed, and obviously the economy gets hurt further because of them as well.

    As for the countries: my list is based on who has started rising fast and recently. India has not yet. And as soon as Africa is declared a country, I’ll think about including it.

    #56676
    zerosum
    Participant

    For a long discussion, go look at
    https://medium.com/@antonymueller/fooled-9de24aa66227
    How Gullible Politicians Promoted the Destruction of the Global Economy and Threw Us into the Abyss of Serfdom

    If the modelers and the responsible government bodies had looked at the basic numbers instead of elaborating an apparently sophisticated model, they would have noticed that there has been no noticeable rise of the death rate. A look at the overall death statistics shows flat lines with fluctuations within its natural range. Even in Italy, there has not yet been a higher number of deaths than usual in the past couple of months. In absolute numbers, the death count is actually slightly down because of the seasonal factor that wintertime is over.

    #56677

    Ilargi, I find your summary concerning NY misleading

    I have to trust in a certain level of intelligence and knowledge around here. If anyone thinks NY has tested 124,000 people in 24 hours, they have no idea what’s going on. And I can’t repeat the same things all the time, it would make this impossible. As for the other stats: if someone collects them I’m game.

    #56678
    zerosum
    Participant

    Raúl Ilargi Meijer

    I, like you, am trying to understand, what is happening.
    Some data is starting to come out of Africa. The fear of covid19 in the slums of India is starting to be reported.
    Has anyone else found mortality data for other parts of the world?
    Thank you for the work you do.

    #56679
    democritus
    Participant

    Since when are estimates either real or actual?

    Why isn’t it always true that we should avoid unnecessary car journeys to save lives?

    Perhaps death on the road is acceptable because it is not exponential.

    #56680
    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    Come on Dr. D, no fair implying the institution of marriage has been refined by the species over 100,000 years. Marriage in its current practice is a relatively recent construct that primarily serves some rather moral, authoritarian institutions, like my former Catholic Church.

    The FBI/DOJ abuse of Gen. Flynn has been transparent to anyone willing to scrape the scale from their eyes. However, if you want to see some rabid foaming at the mouth, batshit pseudo-journalism that continues to defame and debase Flynn’s reputation, get yourself over to marci wheeler’s blog Emptywheel. Just have a catch basin ready for the vomitus.

    #56681
    democritus
    Participant

    What happens when the testing starts, will we have two classes of citizen, those who are free, those who are not free? will the free become the majority? so the unfree can be forgotten? how long will it take?

    #56685
    John Day
    Participant

    http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/04/world-war-c.html
    Eleni sent this essay, which ranges pretty far and wide, by author, Pepe Escobar:
    ​ ​For all practical purposes, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) has been replaced by the Global War on Virus (GWOV). But what is not being seriously analyzed is the Perfect Toxic Storm: a totally shattered economy; The Mother of ​​All Financial Crashes – barely masked by the trillions in helicopter money from the Fed and the ECB; the tens of millions of unemployed engendered by the New Great Depression; the millions of small businesses that will simply disappear; a widespread, global mental health crisis. Not to mention the masses of elderly, especially in the U.S., that will be issued an unspoken “drop dead” notice.
    ​ ​Beyond any rhetoric about “decoupling”, the global economy is already, de facto, split in two. On one side, we have Eurasia, Africa and swathes of Latin America – what China will be painstakingly connecting and reconnecting via the New Silk Roads. On the other side, we have North America and selected Western vassals. A puzzled Europe lies in the middle.​..
    ​ ​There’s no question “a severe pandemic, which becomes ‘Event 201’ would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions”, as spun by the sponsors. Covid-19 is eliciting exactly this kind of “cooperation”. Whether it’s “reliable” is open to endless debate.
    ​ ​The fact is that, all over Planet Lockdown, a groundswell of public opinion is leaning towards defining the current state of affairs as a global psyop: a deliberate global meltdown – the New Great Depression – imposed on unsuspecting citizens by design.
    ​ ​The powers that be, taking their cue from the tried and tested, decades-old CIA playbook, of course are breathlessly calling it a “conspiracy theory”.

    Ground Control to Planet Lockdown: This Is Only a Test

    ​ ​By the end of March 2020, the global framework had changed sufficiently to become — behind the headlines about COVID-19 — about which system and ideology would triumph in the decades after the watershed. That meant a race by each of the major antagonists to determine how quickly national productivity could be resumed​…
    ​ ​I​t is clear that the best avenue which nation-states can take is one marked by gaining as much control over their own destinies as possible. That requires a growing focus on domestic food self-sufficiency, and domestic market bases for manufactured goods and services. In other words: a return to a sense of the nation. The age of globalization is ending; it was a brief window in which the technologies which were created to fight the Cold War became the technologies of global social integration.​..
    ​ What skills will be necessary in the post-2020 environment? Has the economy sobered enough to embrace the restoration of practical skills training instead of ideological education which has no market, while an impetus toward revived domestic manufacturing (rather than foreign-sourced manufacturing) will see significant demand for trained personnel?
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Shadow-War-Playing-Out-Behind-The-COVID-19-Crisis.html

    ​Alexander Korybko has insight, including on the big Russian shipment of medical supplies to the American people.
    ​ Now is the perfect time for defying the “deep state” with the support of the American people after they’ve come to suddenly have a much more favorable view of their country’s rival after it urgently dispatched humanitarian assistance to them with Trump’s support in order to help everyone improve their odds of surviving World War C. This soft power “coup” was made possible by Presidents Trump and Putin cooperating in pursuit of their shared interests…
    https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=1387

    Bill Gates:
    “Eventually what we’ll have to have is certificates of who’s a recovered person, who’s a vaccinated person […] Because you don’t want people moving around the world where you’ll have some countries that won’t have it under control, sadly. You don’t want to completely block off the ability for people to go there and come back and move around. So eventually there will be this digital immunity proof that will help facilitate the global reopening up.”
    ​ ​Notably, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation – which has an endowment of $52 billion – has given more than $2.4 billion to the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2000…

    Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?

    ​The Things You Cannot Say about Coronavirus:
    “Spy on your neighbors if they go outside”, “Doctors are the New Soldiers, and brave doctors say to…”
    ​https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/03/the-things-you-cannot-say-about-coronavirus/

    ​looking up at God’s rain falling on the just and the unjust at Yoakum, Texas vegetable patch [photo]

    #56686
    zerosum
    Participant

    Will someone smarted than me let me know if there is a decrease in the population of the earth.
    Is there an increase in all-cause mortality?

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)31012-1/fulltext
    Published:October 08, 2016
    Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Global Burden of Disease
    The Global Burden of Disease study provides the most comprehensive global health estimates, examining worldwide, national, and regional trends for mortality and morbidity from major diseases, injuries, and risk factors to understand the health challenges of the 21st century.

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl5&pii=S0140-6736%2816%2931012-1
    Table 5 Global deaths in 2005 and 2015 for all ages and both sexes combined and age-standardised death rates, with percentage change between 2005 and 2015 for 249 causes

    #56687
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    Raul: Straw Dogs was an excellent recommendation. The fact that reviewers seem to universally excoriate it as “often brilliant but..”, the “but” mostly being that it destroys their cherished idols, adds lustre. Reading it now. Thx again.

    Here’s someone I once knew, nick-named Gaston Bulbous, turning blue with politically anxious anticipation (I used the attachment function):

    Here is a mandarin consulting divine wisdom or at least firefly actuary tables:

    Finally, a photo of an actual market display for a workout gym in a tiny town in NE Washington that seems apt for the times:

    Good fortune, farewell, and thanks for all the fishes!

    #56688
    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    Pandemic! Pandemic! Pandemic!

    Here’s the CDC account of the 2009 Flu Pandemic
    H1N1
    I think we can all agree from our adult memories the 2009 Flu Pandemic occurred MINUS the flu-related media/journalism hysteria. The 2009 pandemic also coincided with the last economic apocalypse (at least WAMU and Merril Lynch were sacrificed). We even had a fresh young US President, FED and Treasury bailout the banks.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

    #56689

    I wonder if the hateful old bitch is gonna confess to all the crimes she and her rotten fore bearers have surreptitiously and with malice aforethought committed against Americans over the last two hundred years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/queen-to-make-personal-tv-address-to-the-nation-on-sunday

    #56690
    lasttwo
    Participant

    Does anyone else think that Trump got played like a fiddle. Xi and Putin are sitting at the poker table absolutely certain they are not the suckers. Just a thought. Destroy the western economy, health and moral without a shot being fired. They masterfully nullify the US military superiority and exposed the soft underbelly of debt, delusion, and a broken healthcare system. Maybe other presidents would have done the same but Trumps is particularly well suited to being the sucker in this game. Starting with its a hoax. to the Easter Parade message. If your argument is all leaders failed that is true but there are various degrees of failure. Steven McNeil in Nova Scotia Stay the blazes home. message. It will hit nova scotia but at least the message has been clear from the start. Maybe it is all for naught but I would rather be in nova scotia than in the US. Canada is even supplying 75% of wages for small businesses to keep their people on. I am probably wrong but it seems like a better leadership.

    #56691
    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    I checked on https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
    Indeed that is a very low number of tests performed in one of the assumed hot spots of the epidemic – and a rate of round about 40% positives is very high.
    The German Robert-Koch-Institute provide weekly numbers for tests performed and number of positive results:
    CW 11 127 457 tests performed 7582 positive 5.9%
    CW 12 348 619 tests performed 23 820 positve 6.8%
    CW 13 354 521 tests performed 30 741 positive 8.7%
    And in Germany only those with symptoms of a cold will be tested right now.
    Now one can speculate why there is that striking difference versus the NY data. Assumingly different test kits are used. But we need data and not constant shock doses – and the worldometer data are not very informative.

    #56692
    anticlimactic
    Participant

    IS THE CURE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE?

    It is interesting that 1.7 million people in the UK feel that they have the virus. It seems usual for 30% of carriers to be asymptomatic, which would take the number of POSSIBLE cases over two million.

    This helped me relax somewhat because it would imply that before self-isolating 15 days ago I was probably exposed to the virus and did not catch it.

    It is right for people like me who are high risk to self-isolate BUT I depend on those who don’t. The milkman delivering milk, I have had some meals delivered. I have a supermarket delivery booked for about 15 days time, etc.

    If, as seems possible, the food chain is affected such that supermarkets can not obtain fresh supplies of food for an unknown period – what happens? While people will not starve to death immediately it could lead to a breakdown of society where groups ransack peoples homes for supplies.

    Also the economies of countries can be affected so they are literally bankrupt, leading to further breakdowns in society.

    If two million Britons are or have been infected by the virus then the ‘confirmed cases’ are just those with problems [2.5%] and the deaths are just 0.25%.

    This fits in with the claims of a German professor who is saying that this is just another flu and the death rate is about 0.25%. If the average age of those dying in Italy is 78 then people of this age die of ‘something’, this is just another ‘thing’.

    Even if there are only 1 million cases of the virus in the UK [rather than 2 million] then we are way past the point where quarantining if of use. While people with high risk should self-quarantine, we need the rest of the country to function – to keep food supplies coming, to keep pensions coming, to still have a banking system. All this is at risk with the current approach.

    #56693
    zerosum
    Participant

    Captain Nemo
    I went digging in your link and found the following
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

    Go look at the different countries. I looked at Haiti: 18 cases
    Tell me what numbers, from what country, do you want to believe

    #56694
    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    This might an alternative site to look for Covid-19 data for the USA: https://covidtracking.com/

    As far as I can see, NY has an exceptionally high positive rate among the US states. I live in Germany and although I am also not entirely happy what is reported by the Governmental Instiute, the Robert-Koch-Institute especially concerning the cause of death. This institute recommended to avoid autopsies and to classify any death due to pulmonary issues as Covid-19 related.
    There is certainly some variability among countries concerning the test itself as the sampling for the tests (swaps taken either in the pharynx or nasal; in some cases the samples are taken by the patients themselfes), but that is to the medical community to discuss.
    A German virologist Prof. H. Streeck, Univerity Bonn has investigated the viability of the SARS-CoV2 on surfaces, since it was reported from China that the virus remains infectious for up to 7 days on surfaces; he will publish his results soon, however on Television he stated although they were able to detect the RNA of the virus, the cultivation of viruses from the swaps taken was not sucessful.

    #56695
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Looking at the CDC’s current data about underlying health conditions for Covid-19 patients, several aspects are striking.

    (1)  The data being submitted to the CDC is largely incomplete.
    The total lab-confirmed cases (as of March 28) were 122,653. (Excluded are those who didn’t get tested to confirm a Covid-19 diagnosis.) Of the confirmed cases, the CDC received case report forms for only 60.7% of them (74,439). Of those 60.7% of cases for which the CDC got a case report form, only 7,162 had the data on underlying health conditions (and other risk factors). Thus, the CDC had data about underlying health conditions for only 5.8% of the lab-confirmed cases.

    (2)  The CDC’s list of “underlying health conditions and other recognized risk factors” is large and surely covers a significant portion of the population. including conditions such as migraines, high blood pressure, arthritis…

    Diabetes mellitus.
    Chronic lung disease, including
    asthma
    chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
    emphysema.
    Cardiovascular disease.
    Immunocompromised condition.
    Chronic renal disease.
    Pregnancy.
    Neurologic disorder, neurodevelopmental, intellectual disability, including
    dementia, memory loss, or Alzheimer’s disease
    seizure disorder
    Parkinson’s disease
    migraine/headache
    stroke
    autism
    aneurysm
    multiple sclerosis
    neuropathy
    hereditary spastic paraplegia
    myasthenia gravis
    intracranial hemorrhage
    altered mental status.
    Chronic liver disease.
    Other chronic disease, including
    hypertension
    thyroid disease
    gastrointestinal disorder
    hyperlipidemia
    cancer or history of cancer
    rheumatologic disorder
    hematologic disorder
    obesity
    arthritis, nonrheumatoid
    musculoskeletal disorder other than arthritis
    mental health condition
    urologic disorder
    cerebrovascular disease
    obstructive sleep apnea
    fibromyalgia
    gynecologic disorder
    embolism, pulmonary or venous
    ophthalmic disorder
    hypertriglyceridemia
    endocrine
    substance abuse disorder
    dermatologic disorder
    genetic disorder.
    Former smoker.
    Current smoker.

    (3) Yet, despite that long list of conditions, out of those confirmed Covid-19 cases which had data about underlying conditions, 62.4% of them had “none of the above conditions” (and the report forms were not just left blank for those conditions, they “were marked as not present”).

    (4) Out of those cases with “none of the above conditions”, at least 84% of them were not hospitalized, and at least 2.2% of them were admitted to the ICU.

    Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020
    Weekly / April 3, 2020

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e2.htm

    #56696
    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    @Dr. D. Rich. Concerning H1N1 there was an investigation by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe; “In December 2009, a motion was tabled under the title “Faked Pandemics – a threat for health” by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg (Germany, SOC), outgoing member of the Parliamentary Assembly and medical expert specialising in epidemiology.” A preliminary report is available but be warned it is a “busy document”.
    http://assembly.coe.int/CommitteeDocs/2010/20100604_H1N1pandemic_e.pdf

    #56697
    zerosum
    Participant

    Captain Nemo

    From your link, I went to the following link and foud the following resouces.
    https://www.cochrane.org/evidence

    Search our Plain Language Summaries of health evidence:
    Enter terms
    Search…
    For more advanced searches, go to the Cochrane Library website.

    Our health evidence – how can it help youOur health evidence – how can it help you
    “Cochrane summarizes the findings so people making important decisions – you, your doctor, the people who write medical guidelines – can use unbiased information to make difficult choices without having to first read every study out there…”

    Then
    https://www.cochranelibrary.com/

    then
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

    then
    https://novel-coronavirus.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

    Covid-19: Novel Coronavirus Content Free to Access
    As a publisher of trusted health science, we’ve made the relevant research articles, book chapters and entries in our major references freely available below, in support of the global efforts in diagnosis, treatment, prevention and further research in this disease and similar viral respiratory infections. Our approach is to use the world-class information we have available to directly improve health and to support the virtual efforts of healthcare practitioners globally. We are continually monitoring the developments and we will update the content of this page periodically.

    Dr Charles Young
    Editor in Chief
    International Journal of Clinical Practice

    In addition to the articles on this site related to the current outbreak, Wiley is also making a collection of journal articles and our book chapters on coronavirus research freely available to the global scientific community. On workdays, newly published articles are made free within 24 hours of publication. Articles published after 14:00 (EST) on Friday will be made free the following Monday.

    In response to the call to action from OSTP and other governments, Wiley will start feeding content into PubMed Central as it comes in and licensing it to maximize discoverability and usability.

    #56698
    kimyo99
    Participant

    Is there an increase in all-cause mortality?

    ny state total deaths 2017: 155,191. 155,191 / 365 = 425 deaths / day (all causes)

    ny state daily coronavirus death totals 4/1 thru 4/5: 391, 432, 562, 630, 594

    #56699
    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    @Captain Nemo

    Thanks for the reference
    I’ll look it over.
    I suppose it confirms my “sense” of things

    #56700

    “Plandemic”. Heh.

    #56701
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Is there an increase in all-cause mortality?

    Here’s some data from the National Vital Statistics System that looks at reported deaths from all causes, and compares it to the “Expected Deaths.” The Expected Deaths is the number of deaths during the same week of the previous 3 years, averaged. Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. (This data is the total for all the weeks ending from 2/1/2020 to 3/28/2020.)

    The numbers for New York City, and New York State (excluding NYC), are listed below. All of the other states have a “Percent of Expected Deaths” of less than 100%, meaning the total recorded deaths this year during that period are less than the average for that period during the past 3 years. New York City is the exception, with 110% of the expected deaths.

    Table 3
    Jurisdiction, Covid-19 Deaths, Deaths from All Causes, Percent of Expected Deaths
    New York (excl. NYC) 180, 17,731, 96%
    New York City 579, 10,970, 110%

    Note: Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

    Since the number of deaths for this year are incomplete due to this delay, the actual “Percent of Expected Deaths” will probably be higher than listed here.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

    #56702
    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    @ Captain Nemo

    The reference describes exactly what happened with the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Not Pandemic. Governments and WHO spooled up to Level 6 alert status, but the MSM did not participate in the pot stirring like today. I doubt the MSM was so unmotivated because their collective minds discerned the H1N1 2009 Pandemic was equivalent to a mild flu season. Then there’s the role the pharmaceutical companies played in private-public partnerships that catalyzed the heightened response.

    So worldwide here’s stats from Raúl’s entry today
    Cases: 1,214,487
    Deaths: 65,605

    US stats
    Cases: 311,357
    Deaths: 8,463

    Do the statistics support an equivalence with the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic since the 2019-2020 “flu seasom” is almost over and COVID-19 pandemic is 4 to 5 months old?
    Please note no matter the condition precipitating “respiratory failure” and the need for intubation/mechanical ventilation, mortality skyrockets.
    Acute lung injury, ARDS, gram negative sepsis, multiple organ system failure, coagulopathies (DIC) etc

    #56703

    kimyo

    #56704
    ₿oogaloo
    Participant

    Another comment along the same lines:

    The “no big deal” camp would have us believe that coronavirus is no worse than a bad flu season. The same group tells us that thousands upon thousands die of the flu every year. The same group is now questioning whether victims are actually dying from the coronavirus, and not any associated co-morbidities. But for the flu statistics, it is pretty clear that a death gets counted as a flu death even if flu is just a contributing cause (that is the reason the numbers are so high). So shouldn’t it be the same for the coronavirus? I see this as another instance of people massaging the statistics, seeing what they want to see, believing what they want to believe.

    #56705
    V. Arnold
    Participant

    I see this as another instance of people massaging the statistics, seeing what they want to see, believing what they want to believe.

    You’re likely correct in this…
    The numbers are actually relatively small, when you add that there are 7.5 billion people as the denominator…
    Still, like the lottery, I’m playing the odds…
    Which is to say; I don’t buy a ticket…
    In the end; just don’t be stupid

    #56725
    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    “The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths.”

    “Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study. Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that’s higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.”

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