Apr 052020
 


Pietro Lorenzetti Jesus enters Jerusalem 1320 (Basilica of St Francis of Assisi)
“And when he was come into Jerusalem, all the city was stirred, saying, Who is this? And the multitudes said, This is the prophet, Jesus, from Nazareth of Galilee.” – Matthew 21:10-11 #PalmSunday

 

Getting Your Head Around Exponential Growth (Steve Keen)
Reporting Estimated Rather Than Confirmed Infections Might Save Lives (M.)
Japan To Boost Avigan Drug Stockpile As Part Of Coronavirus Stimulus (R.)
Mainland China Sees Rise In New Coronavirus Cases (R.)
Researchers May Have Found Coronavirus’ Achilles’ Heel (NYP)
Landlords Cancel Rent for Tenants So They Can Buy Food, Pay Employees (AN)
Tucson Hospital On The Brink Of Closure Because Of COVID19 Costs (AZC)
I Found The Source (ZH)
China Floods Europe With Defective Medical Equipment (Kern)
Turkey Seizes Hundreds Of Ventilators Paid For By Spain (Ind.)
US Blockade Prevents Medical Supplies From Reaching Cuba (TeleSur)
Prosecutors Want Delay In Michael Flynn Case, Defense Seeks Dismissal (SAC)
Show Typical British Resolve, Queen To Tell Nation (R.)
Prince Andrew Will Reportedly Not Be Interviewed In Epstein Documentary (G.)
Julian Assange “Not Eligible” For Early COVID19 Release – UK (CN)
Boomer Elegy (Kunstler)

 

 

Coronavirus update, New York City:

– 4,561 new cases in last 24 hours
– 124,652 tests performed
– 60,850 tested positive
– 25,029 under age 45
– 2,254 deaths
– 12,716 hospitalized

Countries to keep an eye on: France, UK!, Turkey, Belgium,. Portugal, Brazil, Romania, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Mexico.

 

 

Cases 1214487 (+ 83,912 from yesterday’s 1,130,575)

Deaths 65605 (+ 5,477 from yesterday’s 60,128)

 

 

 

From Worldometer yesterday evening -before their day’s close-

 

 

From Worldometer -NOTE: mortality rate for closed cases is at 21% !

 

 

From SCMP:

 

 

From COVID2019Info.live:

 

 

 

 

I suspect the lack of understanding of the exponential function may lead to many people saying more people die of normal flu.

Getting Your Head Around Exponential Growth (Steve Keen)

A lot of people still don’t seem to get the concept of exponential growth, even though we’ve had over two months of watching an exponential process unfold with the Coronavirus. I hope some simple illustrations using current data might help. John Hopkins University is doing an excellent job of collating the cumulative number of cases reported around the world with its GIS database Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). They’ve made the raw time series data available too. Aggregated to the world level, this is what cumulative COVID-19 cases looked like as of late on April 4th:

This is simply the total number of recorded cases, which includes tested cases where the carrier has only mild symptoms, people who got the disease way back when it began and have since recovered, those who have died, those who are still in intensive care, etc. The global total was just over 1.2 million on April 4th. A simple regression of this data onto an exponential function yields the prediction that, if the rate of transmission and the rate of doubling of the disease reflects what has happened to date from January 21st, when the JHU time series begins, in a week’s time there will be twice as many cases: 2.5 million compared to today’s 1.2 million.

That’s a lot of cases, but it’s still way short of the total world population of about 7.5 billion. It took about ten weeks to go from 555 cases (the number recorded on January 21st at the start of this data series) to over 1 million. How long will it take to get to a significant number compared to the planet’s population—say, half a billion cases? It will take about another 8 weeks.

The red line in each of these graphs is the same red line. Now only a fraction of those infected are going to be current cases—basically, those who were identified in the preceding 2-4 weeks—and only a fraction of those—perhaps about 20%–are going to require hospitalization. But that’s still a huge number of people, far more than can be handled in the world’s emergency medical facilities. This is why this disease is not “just another flu”. It is far more contagious (and we also don’t have any innate resistance to it). We have to “Flatten the curve”, we can’t cope with the number of cases doubling every week, as is the case now.

Read more …

True at heart, but he does not explain how.

Reporting Estimated Rather Than Confirmed Infections Might Save Lives (M.)

Day after day we see startling and quickly rising numbers of confirmed COVID-19 infections. They’re scary. But the true scope of the pandemic is almost certainly scarier. Confirmed cases represent only a fraction of the real spread. In most communities, only the sickest patients are being tested so most people with mild symptoms and those that are asymptomatic go untested and unreported. The real number of people who have been infected by the virus almost certainly dwarfs the cases we know about. And the public winds up with a distorted picture of how prevalent the virus is, often tragically. When there is exponential growth, every unreported case matters even more, as a handful cases can quickly grow to thousands within a few weeks.

And it’s doubtful that most people recognize how seriously confirmed cases underreport the real situation. Knowing that there are ten confirmed cases in your neighborhood now doesn’t mean there are only ten cases that you can come in contact with. The reality could well be that there are actually a hundred cases, ten that were tested and confirmed, fifty that have not yet shown symptoms and not yet been tested, another forty that have been tested and still are waiting on their results. In just a few days, that total could as much as double, depending on the county you live in, because of the speed at which the disease tends to spread. (Right now, the number of confirmed cases in New York city is doubling every two and a half days).

Armed with estimates of the actual scope of the problem from expert epidemiologists, far fewer people would engage in unsafe behavior. If this more useful information were being reported, the beaches during spring break might have been emptier. We can’t get past this until we have had stringent lockdowns for long enough for our healthcare workers to catch up. And we can’t expect citizens to respect stringent lockdown orders unless they have clear and accurate information, not just the data that are most conveniently available. That means getting accurate estimates out is critical. We urge governments and epidemiologists to start publishing estimates of current cases, which would include both confirmed and not yet discovered infections, and we urge the media to start asking for them–and reporting them, daily.

Some of the groundwork is already in place in models that project deaths based on factors such as population density, current testing capacities and methodologies, false negative rates, death rates (and criteria for reporting them), and mitigation strategies. By deriving estimates of currentcases from these models and making those estimates more explicit, and widely available, we can help people and governments make better decisions. No one single estimate will be perfect, but without any readily available sources, we are running almost entirely blind.

Read more …

Japan will rebuild its own medicine industry to move away from China. So will many other countries.

Japan To Boost Avigan Drug Stockpile As Part Of Coronavirus Stimulus (R.)

Japan is considering increasing the stockpile of Fujifilm Holding Corp’s Avigan anti-flu drug during this fiscal year so it can be used to treat 2 million people, according to a planning document seen by Reuters. Local media reported on Sunday that Japan was hoping to triple the production of the drug from current levels, which is enough to treat 700,000 people if used by coronavirus patients. Avigan, also known as Favipiravir, is manufactured by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, which has a healthcare arm although it is better known for its cameras. The drug was approved for use in Japan in 2014. Avigan is being tested in China as a treatment for COVID-19.


In the emergency stimulus package expected to be rolled out on Tuesday, the government also planned to prioritise the clinical trial process of the drug so it can be formally approved to be used in treating coronavirus patients. According to the document, Japan also plans to boost subsidies to domestic companies that supply masks and disinfectants and will secure enough capacity to supply 700 million masks a month. The Nikkei newspaper reported on Sunday that in efforts to reduce its dependence on China as its manufacturing hub, it will subsidise companies that will move some of their production facilities back to Japan.

Read more …

They’ll find way to hide them again.

Mainland China Sees Rise In New Coronavirus Cases (R.)

Mainland China reported 30 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, up from 19 a day earlier as the number of cases involving travellers from abroad as well as local transmissions increased, highlighting the difficulty in stamping out the outbreak. The National Health Commission said in a statement on Sunday that 25 of the latest cases involved people who had entered from abroad, compared with 18 such cases a day earlier. Five new locally transmitted infections were also reported on Saturday, all in the southern coastal province of Guangdong, up from a day earlier. The mainland has now reported a total of 81,669 cases, while the death toll has risen by three to 3,329.


Though daily infections have fallen dramatically from the height of the epidemic in February, when hundreds of new cases were reported daily, Beijing remains unable to completely halt new infections despite imposing some of the most drastic measures to curb the virus’ spread. The so-called imported cases and asymptomatic patients, who have the virus and can give it to others but show no symptoms, have become among China’s chief concerns in recent weeks. The country has closed off its borders to almost all foreigners as the virus spread globally, though most of the imported cases involve Chinese nationals returning from overseas.

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Or they may not. No lack of aspiration.

Researchers May Have Found Coronavirus’ Achilles’ Heel (NYP)

There may be some good news on the coronavirus horizon, as Scripps Research reported it may have found COVID-19’s Achilles heel. The research shows a specific area of the virus could be “targeted with drugs and other therapies, a finding that also could help with the development of a vaccine,” according to the San Diego Tribune. The targeted area, according to biologist Ian Wilson, who led the scientific team, “is crucial to spreading the highly contagious virus, and … its composition suggests that it would be vulnerable to drugs.” The discovery was published Friday in the journal Science and comes as scientists globally are working feverishly to find a vaccine or cure for the pandemic that has devastated global markets and caused more than 63,000 deaths worldwide.


An antibody taken from a SARS patient years earlier was used in the discovery, as researchers realized it had attached itself to a specific part of the virus, and were able to repeat the phenomenon with COVID-19, helping to identify a coronavirus weakness, according to the report. “That high degree of similarity implies that the site has an important function that would be lost if it mutated significantly,” Scripps Research said in a statement Friday. Sadly, the weak spot isn’t easy to find. “We found that this (spot) is usually hidden inside the virus, and only exposed when that part of the virus changes its structure, as it would in natural infection,” Wilson’s colleague, Meng Yuan, said in a statement.

Read more …

Saw this yesterday but it was in the New York Times, and we don’t cover that rag around here. But good on the landlords, and may many more be inspired.

Landlords Cancel Rent for Tenants So They Can Buy Food, Pay Employees (AN)

In the United States, many people who live paycheck to paycheck are worried that they won’t be able to afford housing or basic necessities during the shutdown. There has been a freeze on mortgages in most places, but these conditions overlook renters, who are often-times the most vulnerable. Many renters and activists across the country have called for a rent strike for the month of April, but some landlords have taken it upon themselves to help out their tenants. Mario Salerno, of Brooklyn, New York, owns 18 apartment buildings, and has told his renters to not worry about paying rent during the shutdown, but to instead make sure that all of their other needs are covered. Salerno told the New York Times that his main concern is the health of his tenants.


He said he had about 200 to 300 tenants in total, and estimates that he will lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in income during the month of April. Salerno isn’t the only one, this type of rent forgiveness is happening across the country. A landlord in Jonesboro, Arkansas, made a post on social media last month saying that his company would not expect its restaurants to pay rent during the shutdown, and suggested that they continue to pay their employees instead. Young Investment Company owns properties that are home to some of the area’s most popular restaurants, including Eleanor’s Pizzeria, Roots, Main Street Coffee, The Parsonage, and City Wok. Property owner Clay Young said that all small businesses are suffering right now and he did not want to put more pressure on them during this difficult time.

Read more …

If this doesn’t signal the end of the health care for profit model, nothing will.

“All hospitals are going to need some economic relief very, very soon.”

Tucson Hospital On The Brink Of Closure Because Of COVID19 Costs (AZC)

Leaders of a small, regional hospital south of Tucson say they are on the brink of closing because of costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. “We need economic relief to keep functioning,” Kelly Adams, CEO of the 49-bed Santa Cruz Valley Regional Hospital, told The Arizona Republic. “There’s a revenue problem. … All hospitals are going to need some economic relief very, very soon.” One of the problems, Adams explained, is that elective surgeries have been canceled as a result of an executive order by Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey in anticipation of a surge of patients ill with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

The cancellation of surgeries means less revenue coming in from patients at a time when the hospital is trying to comply with another executive order from Ducey — that all Arizona hospitals by April 24 increase their number of patient beds by 50 percent. Increasing bed capacity is adding additional expenses at a time when the hospital has very little revenue, Adams explained. Overall hospital volume is down by about 40% not only because of halting surgeries, leaders say, but also because members of the community fear visiting a hospital where they could potentially be in proximity to COVID-19.

Leaders say the hospital is pursuing various funding sources to get relief. But the need is urgent, said Patrick Feeney, a managing director with California-based Lateral Investment Management, which owns the hospital. “This isn’t just about our hospital. Hospitals cannot function profitably in this environment, which is why we’re all awaiting money from the government,” he said. “If you want me to increase our bed capacity by 50%, how am I going to do that? It’s going to cause me to shut our doors.”

Read more …

On February 2, over two months ago, which is an eternity especially in virustime, I described all this in The Party and the Virus.

But holding the CCP accountable? With 100,000s of lives and $10 trillion in damages? Don’t think so. Whether it was intentional or not.

I Found The Source (ZH)

“After living and working in China for over 10 years and speaking fluent Chinese, you get to know a society pretty well… and let me tell you this – if you’re applauding or admiring the political leadership of China, you’re all deluded beyond belief.” That is how “laowhy86” begins this succinct video exploring the ‘facts’ – not conspiracies – behind the source of the coronavirus that is ravaging the earth. “China doesn’t operate like ‘your’ country,” he warns, “the Chinese government is a face- and greed-driven government that relies on lies and bullying to maintain leadership.” [..] laowhy86 notes that another job opening appeared on December 24th (remember this is before any news broke of the virus publicly), which basically says ‘we’ve discovered a new and terrible virus and would like to recruit people to come deal with it’…[..]

So, he decided to dig a little bit more into the staff… and that’s where it gets interesting… as he discovers silenced scientists, disappeared doctors, and constant propaganda… “…it’s quite clear that the Chinese government needs to close its mouth and acknowledge that this virus did in fact come from Wuhan, Hubei, China.” [..] this is all public information on the Chinese internet published by researchers, scientists, and doctors.” [..] “Despite the CCP’s all-powerful ability to hide everything it can, the truth usually finds its way out – the Chinese government should cover their tracks better next time if they’re going to blame this on Italy or the US or whatever is convenient to your narrative.”

“…the CCP’s incompetence and its understanding of the danger of the virus on a pure scientific level – and then going on to silence those who wanted to warn the public… and letting the virus spread for months… is the reason the Chinese government must be held accountable!”

Read more …

Oh well, as I said yesterday: dependence on China is no longer acceptable.

China Floods Europe With Defective Medical Equipment (Kern)

[..] In Spain, the Ministry of Health revealed that 640,000 coronavirus tests that it had purchased from a Chinese supplier were defective. In addition, a further million coronavirus tests delivered to Spain on March 30 by another Chinese manufacturer were also defective. The Czech news site iRozhlas reported that 300,000 coronavirus test kits delivered by China had an error rate of 80%. The Czech Ministry of Interior had paid $2.1 million for the kits. A spokesperson for a hospital in Dutch city of Eindhoven said that Chinese suppliers were selling “a lot of junk… at high prices.” “No. 10 [the residence of the British prime minister] believes China is seeking to build its economic power during the pandemic with ‘predatory offers of help’ to countries around the world.” — The Daily Mail, March 28, 2020.

“The brutal truth is that China seems to flout the normal rules of behavior in every area of life — from healthcare to trade and from currency manipulation to internal repression. For too long, nations have lamely kowtowed to China in the desperate hope of winning trade deals. But once we get clear of this terrible pandemic, it is imperative that we all rethink that relationship and put it on a much more balanced and honest basis.” — Former UK Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith.

[..] On March 28, the Netherlands was forced to recall 1.3 million face masks produced in China because they did not meet the minimum safety standards for medical personnel. The so-called KN95 masks are a less expensive Chinese alternative to the American-standard N95 mask, which currently is in short supply around the world. The KN95 does not fit on the face as tightly as the N95, thus potentially exposing medical personnel to the coronavirus. More than 500,000 of the KN95 masks had already been distributed to Dutch hospitals before the recall was enacted. “When the masks were delivered to our hospital, I immediately rejected them,” a hospital worker told the Dutch public broadcaster NOS. “If those masks do not seal properly, the virus particles can simply pass through. We cannot use them. They are unsafe for our people.”

In a written statement, the Dutch Ministry of Health explained: “A first shipment from a Chinese manufacturer was partly delivered last Saturday. These are masks with a KN95 quality certificate. During an inspection this shipment was found not to meet our quality standard. Part of this shipment had already been delivered to healthcare providers; the rest of the cargo was immediately withheld and not further distributed. “A second test also showed that the masks did not meet our quality standard. It has now been decided that this entire shipment will not be used. New shipments will undergo additional tests.”

Read more …

Everybody’s anxious to make friends.

Turkey Seizes Hundreds Of Ventilators Paid For By Spain (Ind.)

Turkey was accused of seizing hundreds of ventilators and sanitary equipment destined for Spain amid the escalating coronavirus pandemic. Spanish officials said Ankara was holding the ventilators for “the treatment of their own patients”, despite local governments in Spain having already paid millions for them. In a press conference on Friday, Spain’s foreign affairs minister, Arancha Gonzalez Laya, appeared to admit defeat in her attempts to convince her Turkish counterpart to release the ventilators in the coming days. “Turkey has imposed restrictions on the export of medical devices, motivated by the need for medical supplies,” she said, according to Spanish national media. Late on Saturday, however, Ms Laya announced Turkey would allow the shipment to make its way to Spain.


Thanking Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Ms Laya tweeted: “We appreciate the gesture of a friendly and allied country.” Spanish newspaper El Mundo on Friday reported the ventilators were manufactured in Turkey on behalf of a Spanish firm that bought the components from China. Three Spanish regions, Castilla-La Mancha, Navarre and Catalonia, had bought the ventilators, the newspaper reported, while the shipment also featured sanitary materials paid for by the country’s health ministry. But before the equipment could be flown out, Turkish customs intervened. Emiliano Garcia-Page, Castilla-La Mancha’s president, said Turkey has “unilaterally decided to requisition” 150 ventilators it had already paid €3m for. He added he expected the national government to issue a diplomatic complaint about the issue, which he said was “bordering on criminality”.

Read more …

Cuba has sent doctors to 14 different countries in the corona fight. The problem with the blockades and sanctions at this point, whether it’s Iran, Venezuela or Cuba, is that people won’t forget.

US Blockade Prevents Medical Supplies From Reaching Cuba (TeleSur)

Cuba was unable to receive a plane with medical supplies and aid from China on March 31 because of the U.S. blockade. The resources were sent by the Chinese entrepreneur and philanthropist Jack Ma. According to the official Twitter profile of the Cuban President, Cuba announced that the donation of medical supplies from the Alibaba Foundation to the Island-Nation to combat the COVID19 has not been able to arrive due to the regulations of the criminal blockade of the United States government against our people. The President of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, also said this fact is an aggression against the human rights of the Cuban people. Jack Ma, a Chinese entrepreneur and founder of Alibaba, allocated a donation of masks, rapid diagnostic kits, and ventilators.

This aid was intended for the patients affected by COVID-19 and the medical staff on the island. On March 22, the businessman announced this shipment, which was to arrive at its destination on the 30th. “One world, one fight! We will donate emergency supplies – 2 million masks, 400K test kits, 104 ventilators – to 24 Latin American countries including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Dominican Republic, and Peru. We will ship long-distance, and we will hurry! WE ARE ONE!” Ma also announced extra supplies in the donative, like ventilators, disposable gloves, and medical gowns. However, due to Helms-Burton Law, the airship with the donatives was unable to arrive in Cuba under the argument that “the regulations of the economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed against the country of destination.

[..] Cuba is facing the COVID-19 threat on its territory, with 186 confirmed positive cases and 2,837 suspected patients. Besides, the Caribbean island provides medical assistance to more than 14 countries.

Read more …

“The FBI and DOJ made up this ‘case,’ threatened to indict his son the next day if he did not plead guilty, hid–and are still hiding–the evidence that shows he is innocent, and they knew that all along..”

Prosecutors Want Delay In Michael Flynn Case, Defense Seeks Dismissal (SAC)

Justice Department prosecutors in the case against former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn are asking the court for an additional three weeks continuance on the case, citing the review of “voluminous” documents submitted by Flynn’s former legal team that represented him for a span [of]30 months. The status report was filed by prosecutors Friday in anticipation of a scheduled hearing on April 3. Justice Department prosecutors stated in the status report that the documents provided by Flynn’s former legal counsel with Covington and Burling “are voluminous, span numerous topics that arose during Covington’s 30-month representation of Mr. Flynn, and include many pages of sometimes difficult-to-decipher handwritten notes.”

[..] In February, Attorney General William Barr ordered a re-examination of several high-profile cases, including Flynns. The re-examination of Flynn’s case will be headed by U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Jensen of St. Louis. According to sources familiar with the matter, Jensen will be working with Brandon Van Grack, who is the former prosecutor that pursued the case against Flynn during Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation. In March, President Donald Trump tweeted he was ‘strongly considering’ a pardon Flynn. He said “after destroying his life & that of his wonderful family (and many others also) the FBI, working in conjunction with the Department of Justice has lost” his records.

Flynn’s defense attorney Sidney Powell told this reporter that Flynn “would wear a pardon like a badge of honor.” She cautioned, however, that the DOJ should intervene before a pardon is even necessary. Powell filed a supplemental motion to withdraw his guilty plea in January. In it, she cited the failure of his previous counsel, Covington and Burling, to timely, fully and correctly advise him of the firm’s ‘conflict of interest in his case’ regarding the Foreign Agents Registration Act form it filed on his behalf. Moreover, she argues that the conflict was so severe the firm was required to withdraw from the matter. He could not consent.

In fact, in Powell’s supplemental motion filed in January, she argued that Flynn’s former counsel “betrayed” him. Powell filed the motion to withdraw his plea just days after Flynn’s prosecutors made a major reversal asking the court to put Flynn in jail for up to six months. Shortly after, prosecutors reversed the jail time recommendation. [..] Powell told SaraACarter.com Friday that “as the government seeks an additional three weeks to work with Covington and Burling LLP against General Flynn, we are reminded again of this egregious injustice against an American hero.”

“The FBI and DOJ made up this ‘case,’ threatened to indict his son the next day if he did not plead guilty, hid–and are still hiding–the evidence that shows he is innocent, and they knew that all along,” she added. “Clapper and Brennan and others knew that Flynn intended to audit and clean out the corrupt intelligence agencies. They and the FBI targeted him to destroy with this false prosecution. Every day the government delays in dismissing this persecution is a disgrace for anything called “Justice” and an enormous waste of taxpayer dollars.”

Read more …

She means the resolve to keep both Prince Andrew and Julian Assange from facing justice. From a symbol to a useless old woman. Who’s doing terribly damage to her entire family in the process. You can no longer take yourself serious AND support these inbreeds anymore. She’s a accomplice to her son’s crimes; she’s denying his victims even just their day in court.

Show Typical British Resolve, Queen To Tell Nation (R.)

Queen Elizabeth will call on Britons to show the same resolve as their forebears and take on the challenge and disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak with good-humoured resolve when she makes an extremely rare address to rally the nation on Sunday. In what will only be her fifth special televised message to the country during her 68 years on the throne, the queen will also thank healthcare workers on the front line and recognise the pain already suffered by some families. “I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say that the Britons of this generation were as strong as any,” the 93-year-old monarch will say, according to extracts released by Buckingham Palace.


“That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country.” On Saturday, the government said the death toll of those who had tested positive for the virus rose by 708 in 24 hours to 4,313, with a 5-year-old among the dead, along with at least 40 who had no known previous health conditions. Health officials have cautioned that high fatalities were expected for at least another week or two even if people complied with strict isolation measures.

Read more …

It’s not about the documentary, it’s about the Law. In the days of #MeToo, the Queen of England decides to hide a sexual predator in her home. Signaling that the law does not apply to her family.

Prince Andrew Will Reportedly Not Be Interviewed In Epstein Documentary (G.)

Prince Andrew will reportedly not agree to be interviewed for a forthcoming documentary about the financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The Duke of York has been repeatedly criticized for associating with Epstein, who died in custody in New York following his July 2019 arrest on sex trafficking charges. According to the Daily Mirror, Andrew was “formally asked” to appear in Surviving Jeffrey Epstein, a four-hour Lifetime production slated for release this summer to follow the channel’s similarly titled films about the singer R Kelly. The British paper quoted an unidentified Los Angeles-based source as saying: “Andrew has been asked to appear to discuss his friendship, but there has been no formal response.”

The reports come some four months after Andrew’s own disastrous BBC Newsnight interview, which was followed by his withdrawal from public duties and patronages. An Epstein accuser, Virginia Roberts Giuffre, alleges that Epstein directed her to have sex with Andrew when she was 17. Andrew has categorically denied all claims of wrongdoing and maintains that he has “no recollection” of meeting Roberts Giuffre, although he was photographed with his arm around her. [..] The Mirror quoted its source as saying Andrew’s “legal team have told him to conduct no more interviews after he spoke to the BBC”. “There is a concern anything he says on tape or camera becomes potential legal material for the many civil cases facing Epstein, and FBI questions regarding Andrew. Essentially all allegations that mention Andrew within the context of Epstein will be dealt with by his lawyers.”

[..] In November, Andrew said he was “willing to help any appropriate law enforcement agency with their investigations if required”. But he has been accused of refusing to cooperate with US authorities investigating Epstein, who in 2008 pleaded guilty to soliciting a minor for prostitution. “Contrary to Prince Andrew’s very public offer to cooperate with our investigation into Epstein’s co-conspirators, an offer that was conveyed via press release, Prince Andrew has now completely shut the door on voluntary cooperation and our office is considering its options,” Manhattan US attorney Geoffrey Berman told reporters in March, revisiting a claim made in January. Buckingham Palace said then it would not comment and said “the issue is being dealt with by the Duke of York’s legal team”.

Read more …

The land of utter stinking weasels has found another loophole: “Julian Assange is not eligible for an early Covid-19 release because he is not serving a criminal sentence.”

Julian Assange “Not Eligible” For Early COVID19 Release – UK (CN)

Imprisoned WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange is not eligible for an early Covid-19 release from prison with other inmates because he is not serving a criminal sentence, the Australian Associated Press has reported. British Justice Secretary Robert Buckland said Saturday that some low-risk inmates, weeks from release, will be let go with monitoring devices to help avoid a further outbreak of Covid-19 in the nations’ prisons. So far 88 prisoners and 15 staff have tested positive for the virus in British prisons. More than 25 percent of the nations’ prison staff are quarantining themselves. “This government is committed to ensuring that justice is served to those who break the law,” Buckland said in a statement.


“But this is an unprecedented situation because if coronavirus takes hold in our prisons, the NHS could be overwhelmed and more lives put at risk.” The Ministry of Justice told the AAP that Assange won’t be among those released because he isn’t serving a custodial sentence. In other words, because he has not been convicted of a crime, and is instead only being held on remand pending the outcome of the U.S. extradition request, he must remain in Belmarsh prison with high-risk inmates–the most serious and hardened criminals. The Daily Maverick reported this week that there is one other prisoner on remand in Belmarsh, who would presumably also be left to rot in the jail as the virus spreads throughout the British prison system.

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The days that are over.

Boomer Elegy (Kunstler)

My stepfather, the man who raised me, was an interesting specimen of that gen. Fresh out of college in Boston, he joined the army, became a lieutenant, and by-and-by found himself trapped in the German offensive through the Ardennes Forest, known as the Battle of the Bulge. Unlike some WW2 vets, he was willing to talk about his experiences. His most vivid memory was the difference between the sound of American and German machine guns. Ours went rat-a-tat-tat, theirs went zzzzzzzap, he said, like you couldn’t even detect the interval between the bullets coming at you. It scared the piss out of his men, not a few of whom were cut to pieces. My stepfather merely caught several chunks of shrapnel in his arm and thigh, and was still on the scene when Germany finally surrendered in May, 1945.

He was awarded a silver star for valor, but never bragged on it. (My mother barely participated in my upbringing, but that’s another story.) He went straight to New York City when it was over. His gen’s victory dance was to get straight to work in the economic bonanza just revving up — because the war had happened elsewhere and all our stuff was intact, ready to re-start, to make and sell anything under the sun to the shattered rest-of-the-world, and lend them money to buy it — quite an opportunity for young men highly disciplined and regimented from their recent travails of war.

My stepfather became a classic Mad Man, as in the TV series, working in media, publishing, and PR, a hard-drinking cohort of mostly military vets who would knock down three martinis over lunch with clients (a nearly inconceivable feat, actually, when you think about it), but that showed what the war had done to the soldiers who survived. He died from it at barely sixty, and from smoking two packs of Camel straights a day, another habit of battle. We Boomer boys had his war as movies and comic books: Sergeant Rock and John Wayne on the beach at Iwo! We had all the fruits of that postwar bonanza. We had Disneyland, the 1964 World’s Fair, the Carousel-of-Progress, and Rock Around the Clock. We eventually had a war of our own, Vietnam, but it was optional for college kids. I declined to go get my ass shot off, of course.

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26% of the population of Milwaukee is black:

 

 

 

 

 

The EU and its hardest stricken member countries:

 

 

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle April 5 2020

This topic contains 32 replies, has 16 voices, and was last updated by  Dr D Rich 2 months ago.

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  • #56671

    Pietro Lorenzetti Jesus enters Jerusalem 1320 (Basilica of St Francis of Assisi) “And when he was come into Jerusalem, all the city was stirred, sayin
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle April 5 2020]

    #56672

    Dr. D
    Participant

    On #AntiLogos, anything, ANYthing but morality:

    “Parents with their children, home haircuts and no affairs: the virus has forced us to live in a weirdly moralistic way “

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/01/parents-with-their-children-home-hair-cuts-and-no-affairs-the-virus-has-forced-us-to-live-in-a-weirdly-moralistic-way

    Lamenting people growing gardens, children safe at home with parents, being unable to have affairs and hook up on Tinder. Yes, we’ve reached the stone age. This obviously is a “Handmaid’s Tale” oppressive religious morality, not the utopia of far leftists like: Permaculturists. Hippies. Dear God, anything but that. Also she seems to think the mildest turn to morality will have us in caves by candlelight, a true acolyte of the monoreligion of Progress.

    Aeon won’t let down their god. They’ll hold the banner:
    “Is Marriage Over?”
    https://aeon.co/essays/marriage-is-dead-long-live-marriage-how-will-we-couple-up?

    Only for Guardian reporters and Harvard professors like you. Weirdos. The rest of us live on the shoulders of 100,000 years of ancestors with things that work. So…now you’re unmarried, have no one, and Tinder and the Nightclubs are closed, and you have a delirious fever. Enjoy!

    But St. Greta and the disciples should be happy. No industry, no carbon use, people dying everywhere. Now that IS a Utopia long discussed and desired. Oh wait, do people now see what we were saying about how it will kill everyone? Encourage a Green Totalitarianism of vaccine-passport tracking of neofeudalism and social oppression for 1,000 years? Like France protested for a year and China is protesting now?

    UN Blasted As “Absurd & Immoral” For Appointing China To Key UN Human Rights Panel”

    Yes, “Experts”, “Authorities” U.N., giving the influence over human rights to countries with open concentration camps, slavery, organ trafficking, biowarfare, and genocide. They got their rotation after Saudi Arabia and Sudan. And just think: then America will get it! Wait ‘til they turn their genocidal, social-tracking repression cannons on us – nothing happens. Beat ya to it.

    Back to your regularly scheduled Plandemic, I look forward to getting real numbers and reviewing Keen’s thesis after this is over. So, Keen, unlike theory, the real world is not infinite. A some point 300 million Americans will have had it. So…exponential function? And when we compare with 2019 all-in (health) mortality what will we see? Oh, probably Hong Kong flu levels, something, but a few thousand killed by flu and tens of thousands killed by the economy and subsequent war. #Helping! See you then!

    (P.S. again, “flattening the curve” will barely help. You just take a hardship of 6 months and drag it out for 6 years, while erasing freedom and privacy from the earth. Perhaps there’s a third way?)

    Reporting Estimated Rather Than Confirmed Infections Might Save Lives (M.) “

    Testing was a) proven false and b) according to Australia Sun, contaminated with covid itself (can you get it from the test?) But clearly SOMEBODY’S testing, since as of Friday, everybody suddenly had numbers about the exact hour of the peak. Care to stop lying and cough it up now? A: Never. The only enemy is the #Truth.

    So given no testing AND false testing for what testing we have, this genius is going to “estimate” (guess) and thereby we’ll be better informed. He will be welcome at the BLS and Federal Reserve Statistics Department.

    “Mainland China reported 30 new coronavirus cases”

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    And it gets better: they say it’s our fault!

    China Floods Europe With Defective Medical Equipment (Kern)

    Yeah. They so funny. And probably the source of the testing feedstock that “accidentally” was contaminated with the virus they started we were trying to fight. Oopsie! AND some doctors died. AND they threatened to obey or they’d cut us off medically, AND they delayed the truth to pilfer a few million masks we need, AND are crowing about how it will genocide Japan, AND… But they’re good old folks. Best ever. Ask the WHO!

    The end of the health care for profit model, “

    I don’t know how to address this. Until the government gets out of this monopoly with guaranteed profits for no risk, we can’t find and end to the profit model. For centuries hospitals were non-profit, until government “helped” in 1994 and ran them all out of existence, forcing the profit-only model on America with a public-private monopoly. So you’re saying the government is going to stop itself?

    “The FBI and DOJ made up this ‘case,’ threatened to indict his son the next day if he did not plead guilty, hid–and are still hiding–the evidence that shows he is innocent, and they knew that all along..”

    Prettymuch par for the course for the FBI, average day’s work. That’s why they were formed and why J. Edgar started it: to blackmail and arrest dissenting power-people. Working as designed. But you think we should trust them because they’re an Authority™. “My Authority, right or wrong.”

    Apparently the same in England, with Royal families, Jimmy Saville, P.M. Heath, and everybody else.

    #56673

    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    Ilargi, I find your summary concerning NY misleading because it is not clear whether the tests performed is a cumulative number or refers to the number performed within the last 24 hrs. That makes a huge distinction conderning the interpretation of the given figures.
    Is it possible to provide the data for say the last 7 days given for each day the new “cases” and the number of tests performed. Then by looking at the change of the fraction of positives over the time period, we would get a better picture of the “epidemic”.

    #56674

    zerosum
    Participant

    I suspect the lack of understanding of the exponential function may lead to many people saying more people die of normal flu.
    Lets find and compare the data.

    all-cause mortality
    You can only die once.
    https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
    Mortality monitoring in Europe
    Welcome to the EuroMOMO website. We publish weekly bulletins of the all-cause mortality levels in up to 24 European countries or regions of countries. The weekly bulletin is published every Thursday around noon.
    The data starts at 2016 week 05
    The data ends at 2020 week 13
    So far, there has not been an excess of the all-cause mortality levels
    Lets find more data and compare.
    Human societies will be in declining trouble when there are more death than birth. (all-cause mortality)

    Countries to keep an eye on: France, UK!, Turkey, Belgium,. Portugal, Brazil, Romania, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Mexico.
    My list includes India, Africa, and all the poor slums

    #56675

    zero,

    The Dutch statistics bureau a few days ago found over 600 “unexplained” deaths, i.e. above average but not contributed to COVID19. But then -of course- they say they’ll include them in the numbers but don’t say when.

    All the uncertainties combined are a giant boon for politics: things always look better in the dark. The Dutch government even officially says that numbers are much higher than reported because they hardly test anyone.

    There is a problem with that which they don’t understand: they can’t re-open the economy until everyone has been tested. They will find that out. But by then, people will have been locked down longer than needed, and obviously the economy gets hurt further because of them as well.

    As for the countries: my list is based on who has started rising fast and recently. India has not yet. And as soon as Africa is declared a country, I’ll think about including it.

    #56676

    zerosum
    Participant

    For a long discussion, go look at
    https://medium.com/@antonymueller/fooled-9de24aa66227
    How Gullible Politicians Promoted the Destruction of the Global Economy and Threw Us into the Abyss of Serfdom

    If the modelers and the responsible government bodies had looked at the basic numbers instead of elaborating an apparently sophisticated model, they would have noticed that there has been no noticeable rise of the death rate. A look at the overall death statistics shows flat lines with fluctuations within its natural range. Even in Italy, there has not yet been a higher number of deaths than usual in the past couple of months. In absolute numbers, the death count is actually slightly down because of the seasonal factor that wintertime is over.

    #56677

    Ilargi, I find your summary concerning NY misleading

    I have to trust in a certain level of intelligence and knowledge around here. If anyone thinks NY has tested 124,000 people in 24 hours, they have no idea what’s going on. And I can’t repeat the same things all the time, it would make this impossible. As for the other stats: if someone collects them I’m game.

    #56678

    zerosum
    Participant

    Raúl Ilargi Meijer

    I, like you, am trying to understand, what is happening.
    Some data is starting to come out of Africa. The fear of covid19 in the slums of India is starting to be reported.
    Has anyone else found mortality data for other parts of the world?
    Thank you for the work you do.

    #56679

    democritus
    Participant

    Since when are estimates either real or actual?

    Why isn’t it always true that we should avoid unnecessary car journeys to save lives?

    Perhaps death on the road is acceptable because it is not exponential.

    #56680

    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    Come on Dr. D, no fair implying the institution of marriage has been refined by the species over 100,000 years. Marriage in its current practice is a relatively recent construct that primarily serves some rather moral, authoritarian institutions, like my former Catholic Church.

    The FBI/DOJ abuse of Gen. Flynn has been transparent to anyone willing to scrape the scale from their eyes. However, if you want to see some rabid foaming at the mouth, batshit pseudo-journalism that continues to defame and debase Flynn’s reputation, get yourself over to marci wheeler’s blog Emptywheel. Just have a catch basin ready for the vomitus.

    #56681

    democritus
    Participant

    What happens when the testing starts, will we have two classes of citizen, those who are free, those who are not free? will the free become the majority? so the unfree can be forgotten? how long will it take?

    #56685

    John Day
    Participant

    http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/04/world-war-c.html
    Eleni sent this essay, which ranges pretty far and wide, by author, Pepe Escobar:
    ​ ​For all practical purposes, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) has been replaced by the Global War on Virus (GWOV). But what is not being seriously analyzed is the Perfect Toxic Storm: a totally shattered economy; The Mother of ​​All Financial Crashes – barely masked by the trillions in helicopter money from the Fed and the ECB; the tens of millions of unemployed engendered by the New Great Depression; the millions of small businesses that will simply disappear; a widespread, global mental health crisis. Not to mention the masses of elderly, especially in the U.S., that will be issued an unspoken “drop dead” notice.
    ​ ​Beyond any rhetoric about “decoupling”, the global economy is already, de facto, split in two. On one side, we have Eurasia, Africa and swathes of Latin America – what China will be painstakingly connecting and reconnecting via the New Silk Roads. On the other side, we have North America and selected Western vassals. A puzzled Europe lies in the middle.​..
    ​ ​There’s no question “a severe pandemic, which becomes ‘Event 201’ would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions”, as spun by the sponsors. Covid-19 is eliciting exactly this kind of “cooperation”. Whether it’s “reliable” is open to endless debate.
    ​ ​The fact is that, all over Planet Lockdown, a groundswell of public opinion is leaning towards defining the current state of affairs as a global psyop: a deliberate global meltdown – the New Great Depression – imposed on unsuspecting citizens by design.
    ​ ​The powers that be, taking their cue from the tried and tested, decades-old CIA playbook, of course are breathlessly calling it a “conspiracy theory”.

    Ground Control to Planet Lockdown: This Is Only a Test

    ​ ​By the end of March 2020, the global framework had changed sufficiently to become — behind the headlines about COVID-19 — about which system and ideology would triumph in the decades after the watershed. That meant a race by each of the major antagonists to determine how quickly national productivity could be resumed​…
    ​ ​I​t is clear that the best avenue which nation-states can take is one marked by gaining as much control over their own destinies as possible. That requires a growing focus on domestic food self-sufficiency, and domestic market bases for manufactured goods and services. In other words: a return to a sense of the nation. The age of globalization is ending; it was a brief window in which the technologies which were created to fight the Cold War became the technologies of global social integration.​..
    ​ What skills will be necessary in the post-2020 environment? Has the economy sobered enough to embrace the restoration of practical skills training instead of ideological education which has no market, while an impetus toward revived domestic manufacturing (rather than foreign-sourced manufacturing) will see significant demand for trained personnel?
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Shadow-War-Playing-Out-Behind-The-COVID-19-Crisis.html

    ​Alexander Korybko has insight, including on the big Russian shipment of medical supplies to the American people.
    ​ Now is the perfect time for defying the “deep state” with the support of the American people after they’ve come to suddenly have a much more favorable view of their country’s rival after it urgently dispatched humanitarian assistance to them with Trump’s support in order to help everyone improve their odds of surviving World War C. This soft power “coup” was made possible by Presidents Trump and Putin cooperating in pursuit of their shared interests…
    https://oneworld.press/?module=articles&action=view&id=1387

    Bill Gates:
    “Eventually what we’ll have to have is certificates of who’s a recovered person, who’s a vaccinated person […] Because you don’t want people moving around the world where you’ll have some countries that won’t have it under control, sadly. You don’t want to completely block off the ability for people to go there and come back and move around. So eventually there will be this digital immunity proof that will help facilitate the global reopening up.”
    ​ ​Notably, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation – which has an endowment of $52 billion – has given more than $2.4 billion to the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2000…

    Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?

    ​The Things You Cannot Say about Coronavirus:
    “Spy on your neighbors if they go outside”, “Doctors are the New Soldiers, and brave doctors say to…”
    ​https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/03/the-things-you-cannot-say-about-coronavirus/

    ​looking up at God’s rain falling on the just and the unjust at Yoakum, Texas vegetable patch [photo]

    #56686

    zerosum
    Participant

    Will someone smarted than me let me know if there is a decrease in the population of the earth.
    Is there an increase in all-cause mortality?

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)31012-1/fulltext
    Published:October 08, 2016
    Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Global Burden of Disease
    The Global Burden of Disease study provides the most comprehensive global health estimates, examining worldwide, national, and regional trends for mortality and morbidity from major diseases, injuries, and risk factors to understand the health challenges of the 21st century.

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl5&pii=S0140-6736%2816%2931012-1
    Table 5 Global deaths in 2005 and 2015 for all ages and both sexes combined and age-standardised death rates, with percentage change between 2005 and 2015 for 249 causes

    #56687

    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    Raul: Straw Dogs was an excellent recommendation. The fact that reviewers seem to universally excoriate it as “often brilliant but..”, the “but” mostly being that it destroys their cherished idols, adds lustre. Reading it now. Thx again.

    Here’s someone I once knew, nick-named Gaston Bulbous, turning blue with politically anxious anticipation (I used the attachment function):

    Here is a mandarin consulting divine wisdom or at least firefly actuary tables:

    Finally, a photo of an actual market display for a workout gym in a tiny town in NE Washington that seems apt for the times:

    Good fortune, farewell, and thanks for all the fishes!

    #56688

    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    Pandemic! Pandemic! Pandemic!

    Here’s the CDC account of the 2009 Flu Pandemic
    H1N1
    I think we can all agree from our adult memories the 2009 Flu Pandemic occurred MINUS the flu-related media/journalism hysteria. The 2009 pandemic also coincided with the last economic apocalypse (at least WAMU and Merril Lynch were sacrificed). We even had a fresh young US President, FED and Treasury bailout the banks.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

    #56689

    I wonder if the hateful old bitch is gonna confess to all the crimes she and her rotten fore bearers have surreptitiously and with malice aforethought committed against Americans over the last two hundred years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/queen-to-make-personal-tv-address-to-the-nation-on-sunday

    #56690

    lasttwo
    Participant

    Does anyone else think that Trump got played like a fiddle. Xi and Putin are sitting at the poker table absolutely certain they are not the suckers. Just a thought. Destroy the western economy, health and moral without a shot being fired. They masterfully nullify the US military superiority and exposed the soft underbelly of debt, delusion, and a broken healthcare system. Maybe other presidents would have done the same but Trumps is particularly well suited to being the sucker in this game. Starting with its a hoax. to the Easter Parade message. If your argument is all leaders failed that is true but there are various degrees of failure. Steven McNeil in Nova Scotia Stay the blazes home. message. It will hit nova scotia but at least the message has been clear from the start. Maybe it is all for naught but I would rather be in nova scotia than in the US. Canada is even supplying 75% of wages for small businesses to keep their people on. I am probably wrong but it seems like a better leadership.

    #56691

    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    I checked on https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
    Indeed that is a very low number of tests performed in one of the assumed hot spots of the epidemic – and a rate of round about 40% positives is very high.
    The German Robert-Koch-Institute provide weekly numbers for tests performed and number of positive results:
    CW 11 127 457 tests performed 7582 positive 5.9%
    CW 12 348 619 tests performed 23 820 positve 6.8%
    CW 13 354 521 tests performed 30 741 positive 8.7%
    And in Germany only those with symptoms of a cold will be tested right now.
    Now one can speculate why there is that striking difference versus the NY data. Assumingly different test kits are used. But we need data and not constant shock doses – and the worldometer data are not very informative.

    #56692

    anticlimactic
    Participant

    IS THE CURE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE?

    It is interesting that 1.7 million people in the UK feel that they have the virus. It seems usual for 30% of carriers to be asymptomatic, which would take the number of POSSIBLE cases over two million.

    This helped me relax somewhat because it would imply that before self-isolating 15 days ago I was probably exposed to the virus and did not catch it.

    It is right for people like me who are high risk to self-isolate BUT I depend on those who don’t. The milkman delivering milk, I have had some meals delivered. I have a supermarket delivery booked for about 15 days time, etc.

    If, as seems possible, the food chain is affected such that supermarkets can not obtain fresh supplies of food for an unknown period – what happens? While people will not starve to death immediately it could lead to a breakdown of society where groups ransack peoples homes for supplies.

    Also the economies of countries can be affected so they are literally bankrupt, leading to further breakdowns in society.

    If two million Britons are or have been infected by the virus then the ‘confirmed cases’ are just those with problems [2.5%] and the deaths are just 0.25%.

    This fits in with the claims of a German professor who is saying that this is just another flu and the death rate is about 0.25%. If the average age of those dying in Italy is 78 then people of this age die of ‘something’, this is just another ‘thing’.

    Even if there are only 1 million cases of the virus in the UK [rather than 2 million] then we are way past the point where quarantining if of use. While people with high risk should self-quarantine, we need the rest of the country to function – to keep food supplies coming, to keep pensions coming, to still have a banking system. All this is at risk with the current approach.

    #56693

    zerosum
    Participant

    Captain Nemo
    I went digging in your link and found the following
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

    Go look at the different countries. I looked at Haiti: 18 cases
    Tell me what numbers, from what country, do you want to believe

    #56694

    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    This might an alternative site to look for Covid-19 data for the USA: https://covidtracking.com/

    As far as I can see, NY has an exceptionally high positive rate among the US states. I live in Germany and although I am also not entirely happy what is reported by the Governmental Instiute, the Robert-Koch-Institute especially concerning the cause of death. This institute recommended to avoid autopsies and to classify any death due to pulmonary issues as Covid-19 related.
    There is certainly some variability among countries concerning the test itself as the sampling for the tests (swaps taken either in the pharynx or nasal; in some cases the samples are taken by the patients themselfes), but that is to the medical community to discuss.
    A German virologist Prof. H. Streeck, Univerity Bonn has investigated the viability of the SARS-CoV2 on surfaces, since it was reported from China that the virus remains infectious for up to 7 days on surfaces; he will publish his results soon, however on Television he stated although they were able to detect the RNA of the virus, the cultivation of viruses from the swaps taken was not sucessful.

    #56695

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Looking at the CDC’s current data about underlying health conditions for Covid-19 patients, several aspects are striking.

    (1)  The data being submitted to the CDC is largely incomplete.
    The total lab-confirmed cases (as of March 28) were 122,653. (Excluded are those who didn’t get tested to confirm a Covid-19 diagnosis.) Of the confirmed cases, the CDC received case report forms for only 60.7% of them (74,439). Of those 60.7% of cases for which the CDC got a case report form, only 7,162 had the data on underlying health conditions (and other risk factors). Thus, the CDC had data about underlying health conditions for only 5.8% of the lab-confirmed cases.

    (2)  The CDC’s list of “underlying health conditions and other recognized risk factors” is large and surely covers a significant portion of the population. including conditions such as migraines, high blood pressure, arthritis…

    Diabetes mellitus.
    Chronic lung disease, including
    asthma
    chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
    emphysema.
    Cardiovascular disease.
    Immunocompromised condition.
    Chronic renal disease.
    Pregnancy.
    Neurologic disorder, neurodevelopmental, intellectual disability, including
    dementia, memory loss, or Alzheimer’s disease
    seizure disorder
    Parkinson’s disease
    migraine/headache
    stroke
    autism
    aneurysm
    multiple sclerosis
    neuropathy
    hereditary spastic paraplegia
    myasthenia gravis
    intracranial hemorrhage
    altered mental status.
    Chronic liver disease.
    Other chronic disease, including
    hypertension
    thyroid disease
    gastrointestinal disorder
    hyperlipidemia
    cancer or history of cancer
    rheumatologic disorder
    hematologic disorder
    obesity
    arthritis, nonrheumatoid
    musculoskeletal disorder other than arthritis
    mental health condition
    urologic disorder
    cerebrovascular disease
    obstructive sleep apnea
    fibromyalgia
    gynecologic disorder
    embolism, pulmonary or venous
    ophthalmic disorder
    hypertriglyceridemia
    endocrine
    substance abuse disorder
    dermatologic disorder
    genetic disorder.
    Former smoker.
    Current smoker.

    (3) Yet, despite that long list of conditions, out of those confirmed Covid-19 cases which had data about underlying conditions, 62.4% of them had “none of the above conditions” (and the report forms were not just left blank for those conditions, they “were marked as not present”).

    (4) Out of those cases with “none of the above conditions”, at least 84% of them were not hospitalized, and at least 2.2% of them were admitted to the ICU.

    Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020
    Weekly / April 3, 2020

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e2.htm

    #56696

    Captain Nemo
    Participant

    @Dr. D. Rich. Concerning H1N1 there was an investigation by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe; “In December 2009, a motion was tabled under the title “Faked Pandemics – a threat for health” by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg (Germany, SOC), outgoing member of the Parliamentary Assembly and medical expert specialising in epidemiology.” A preliminary report is available but be warned it is a “busy document”.
    http://assembly.coe.int/CommitteeDocs/2010/20100604_H1N1pandemic_e.pdf

    #56697

    zerosum
    Participant

    Captain Nemo

    From your link, I went to the following link and foud the following resouces.
    https://www.cochrane.org/evidence

    Search our Plain Language Summaries of health evidence:
    Enter terms
    Search…
    For more advanced searches, go to the Cochrane Library website.

    Our health evidence – how can it help youOur health evidence – how can it help you
    “Cochrane summarizes the findings so people making important decisions – you, your doctor, the people who write medical guidelines – can use unbiased information to make difficult choices without having to first read every study out there…”

    Then
    https://www.cochranelibrary.com/

    then
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

    then
    https://novel-coronavirus.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

    Covid-19: Novel Coronavirus Content Free to Access
    As a publisher of trusted health science, we’ve made the relevant research articles, book chapters and entries in our major references freely available below, in support of the global efforts in diagnosis, treatment, prevention and further research in this disease and similar viral respiratory infections. Our approach is to use the world-class information we have available to directly improve health and to support the virtual efforts of healthcare practitioners globally. We are continually monitoring the developments and we will update the content of this page periodically.

    Dr Charles Young
    Editor in Chief
    International Journal of Clinical Practice

    In addition to the articles on this site related to the current outbreak, Wiley is also making a collection of journal articles and our book chapters on coronavirus research freely available to the global scientific community. On workdays, newly published articles are made free within 24 hours of publication. Articles published after 14:00 (EST) on Friday will be made free the following Monday.

    In response to the call to action from OSTP and other governments, Wiley will start feeding content into PubMed Central as it comes in and licensing it to maximize discoverability and usability.

    #56698

    kimyo99
    Participant

    Is there an increase in all-cause mortality?

    ny state total deaths 2017: 155,191. 155,191 / 365 = 425 deaths / day (all causes)

    ny state daily coronavirus death totals 4/1 thru 4/5: 391, 432, 562, 630, 594

    #56699

    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    @Captain Nemo

    Thanks for the reference
    I’ll look it over.
    I suppose it confirms my “sense” of things

    #56700

    “Plandemic”. Heh.

    #56701

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Is there an increase in all-cause mortality?

    Here’s some data from the National Vital Statistics System that looks at reported deaths from all causes, and compares it to the “Expected Deaths.” The Expected Deaths is the number of deaths during the same week of the previous 3 years, averaged. Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. (This data is the total for all the weeks ending from 2/1/2020 to 3/28/2020.)

    The numbers for New York City, and New York State (excluding NYC), are listed below. All of the other states have a “Percent of Expected Deaths” of less than 100%, meaning the total recorded deaths this year during that period are less than the average for that period during the past 3 years. New York City is the exception, with 110% of the expected deaths.

    Table 3
    Jurisdiction, Covid-19 Deaths, Deaths from All Causes, Percent of Expected Deaths
    New York (excl. NYC) 180, 17,731, 96%
    New York City 579, 10,970, 110%

    Note: Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

    Since the number of deaths for this year are incomplete due to this delay, the actual “Percent of Expected Deaths” will probably be higher than listed here.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

    #56702

    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    @ Captain Nemo

    The reference describes exactly what happened with the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Not Pandemic. Governments and WHO spooled up to Level 6 alert status, but the MSM did not participate in the pot stirring like today. I doubt the MSM was so unmotivated because their collective minds discerned the H1N1 2009 Pandemic was equivalent to a mild flu season. Then there’s the role the pharmaceutical companies played in private-public partnerships that catalyzed the heightened response.

    So worldwide here’s stats from Raúl’s entry today
    Cases: 1,214,487
    Deaths: 65,605

    US stats
    Cases: 311,357
    Deaths: 8,463

    Do the statistics support an equivalence with the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic since the 2019-2020 “flu seasom” is almost over and COVID-19 pandemic is 4 to 5 months old?
    Please note no matter the condition precipitating “respiratory failure” and the need for intubation/mechanical ventilation, mortality skyrockets.
    Acute lung injury, ARDS, gram negative sepsis, multiple organ system failure, coagulopathies (DIC) etc

    #56703

    kimyo

    #56704

    Boogaloo
    Participant

    Another comment along the same lines:

    The “no big deal” camp would have us believe that coronavirus is no worse than a bad flu season. The same group tells us that thousands upon thousands die of the flu every year. The same group is now questioning whether victims are actually dying from the coronavirus, and not any associated co-morbidities. But for the flu statistics, it is pretty clear that a death gets counted as a flu death even if flu is just a contributing cause (that is the reason the numbers are so high). So shouldn’t it be the same for the coronavirus? I see this as another instance of people massaging the statistics, seeing what they want to see, believing what they want to believe.

    #56705

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    I see this as another instance of people massaging the statistics, seeing what they want to see, believing what they want to believe.

    You’re likely correct in this…
    The numbers are actually relatively small, when you add that there are 7.5 billion people as the denominator…
    Still, like the lottery, I’m playing the odds…
    Which is to say; I don’t buy a ticket…
    In the end; just don’t be stupid

    #56725

    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    “The 2017-2018 flu season was severe for all US populations and resulted in an estimated 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,099 deaths.”

    “Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study. Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that’s higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.”

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