Debt Rattle May 11 2026
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Willem de Kooning Door to the River 1960 • Trump Says Iran Response “Totally Unacceptable” (ZH) • President Trump Rejects Latest Offer from Iranian Re
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle May 11 2026]EIGHT WEEKS TO EMPTY SHELVES. SIXTY DAYS TO FAMINE. WHAT CAUSED IT, AN
Hal Turner
By: Mark A. ShryockI called this timeline months ago. June and July 2026. I said it when there was no data to support it. I said it when people thought I was wrong. I said it when even the AI systems I work with told me I was getting ahead of the evidence. I said it because I could see the convergence coming through my training in systems analysis and because something deeper than data was telling me the timeline was right.
Now the data is here. And it confirms everything.
I have run this research across four separate large language models. I have cross-referenced every claim against the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Fortune, the Associated Press, Reuters, PBS, CNN, and the United Nations. I have verified the expert assessments from Carlyle Group, Rystad Energy, Shell, Chevron, and the EIA administrator himself.
What I am about to show you is not speculation. It is not opinion. It is the documented, sourced, verified trajectory of the global oil supply as it exists right now, on May 8, 2026.
If you can hear me, your life depends on what is in this article. I am not being dramatic. I am not overstating this. I am telling you that the data says the United States of America will run out of usable oil by July 4, 2026. Europe will run out this month. The food system that feeds you runs on diesel. Diesel runs out first.
Read this. Understand it. Act on it today. Not tomorrow. Today.
THE LAST TANKER
On May 3, 2026, a Hong Kong-flagged tanker called the New Corolla docked at the Port of Long Beach, California. It was carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude oil loaded at the Port of Basra on February 24, four days before the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.
That tanker was the last one. The last oil shipment from the Middle East to reach American shores. It arrived, it unloaded, and now it is gone.
The buffer that kept fuel flowing for two months, tankers that were already at sea when the war started, is exhausted. Bryon Stock, director of the Chevron El Segundo refinery, the largest refinery on the West Coast, called it a “significant milestone that I’ve not seen or faced in my 27-year career.” His refinery normally receives 20 percent of its crude from the Arab Gulf. That supply is now zero. California imports roughly 60 percent of its crude. Roughly 20 percent of that came from the Middle East. Gone.
For two months, the world coasted on oil that was already at sea. That floating inventory masked the full scale of what was happening. It kept prices high but stable. It kept fuel flowing. It kept people thinking this was just another spike at the pump.
That illusion ended on May 3 in Long Beach.
We are no longer in a price crisis. We are entering a physical shortage. A point where fuel stops being available at any price because there is none left to sell.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STRAIT
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Before the war, roughly 120 commercial vessels transited it every day. It carried 20 million barrels of oil per day, 20 percent of the global seaborne oil trade. It was the single most important energy chokepoint on the planet.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated by closing the strait. By early March, only three oil tankers transited in a single day where fifty had passed days earlier. Iran deployed mines, IRGC gunboats, anti-ship missiles, and drone attacks to enforce the closure. On March 4, Iran formally declared the strait closed and threatened to attack any vessel attempting passage. At least 34 documented attacks on commercial vessels have occurred since the maritime phase began.
By the week ending May 3, Lloyd’s List reported only 40 ships crossed the strait in the entire seven-day period. That is roughly five or six per day. Pre-war traffic was 120 per day. That is a 95 percent collapse in commercial shipping through the most important oil corridor on Earth.
The United States imposed its own naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13. On April 23, Trump ordered the Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines. On May 3, Trump said the U.S. would help free stranded ships, then paused the effort. Iran warned the U.S. to stay out.
The strait has been effectively closed for over two months. Twenty thousand mariners and two thousand ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. Insurance firms are refusing war-risk cover for Hormuz transits, and the London Joint War Committee has expanded its designated high-risk zones. War risk premiums have increased four to six times pre-war levels. Even vessels willing to attempt passage face insurance costs that make the trip economically unviable.
WHAT “TANK BOTTOMS” MEANS AND WHY IT WILL END YOUR WAY OF LIFE
You are going to hear a phrase in the coming days that most Americans have never encountered: tank bottoms.
Jeff Currie, senior advisor at the Carlyle Group, told Bloomberg Television on May 6, 2026, that oil storage tanks in Europe will hit tank bottoms “sometime in the month of May” and in the United States “somewhere in that July 4th period.” He said he has “never seen anything like it before.”
Stop and understand what this means.
Tank bottoms does not mean the tanks are low. It means the system stops working. Oil storage tanks require a minimum volume of liquid to maintain the pressure that allows pumps to function. When levels drop below that threshold, the remaining oil becomes physically inaccessible to the pipeline system. It cannot be pumped out. It cannot be moved. The pumps fail.
Below that, the bottom five to ten percent of large storage tanks contains sediment, water, and paraffin wax that the industry calls “heavies.” If you try to draw from that level, you clog filters and damage refinery equipment. That last volume is not usable without intensive processing that takes weeks.
So when Currie says “tank bottoms,” he is describing a point where the infrastructure itself fails. The pumps cannot pull. The pipelines cannot deliver. The refineries cannot process. It does not matter what the price is. It does not matter how much money you have. The fuel is physically gone from the system.
Europe is hitting that point now. This month. May 2026. The United States hits it around July 4. That is not a projection for next year. That is eight weeks from the day I am writing this.
THE NUMBERS THAT PROVE IT
As of the week ending May 1, total U.S. commercial petroleum inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels in a single week. Crude oil stocks dropped 2.3 million barrels. Distillate fuel (diesel and jet fuel) dropped 1.3 million barrels and now sits 11 percent below the five-year average, at the lowest level since 2005. U.S. gasoline stocks fell 2.5 million barrels. This was the eleventh straight weekly decline in gasoline inventories.
All of this is from the EIA’s own weekly petroleum status report, released May 6, 2026.
Globally, the net market deficit is running at 5.1 million barrels per day according to the EIA’s Q2 2026 estimate. But that is only the gap between production and consumption. When you include the drawdown of strategic reserves, floating storage, and commercial stocks worldwide, the gross depletion rate reaches 10 to 13 million barrels per day. One analysis estimates that over one billion barrels of stored petroleum have been depleted since late February.
To put that in context, the entire U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 413 million barrels in December 2025. We have burned through the equivalent of more than two full Strategic Petroleum Reserves in ten weeks.
The SPR itself stood at 397.9 million barrels as of late April. As of the week of May 1, it was down to 392.7 million barrels and falling. The U.S. has announced a release of 172 million barrels as part of a coordinated 32-nation effort totaling 400 million barrels. Only 17.5 million of that U.S. release has been completed so far. The release is structured as an exchange, not a sale, meaning every barrel must be returned to the reserve later with an 18 to 22 percent premium. We are borrowing from our own emergency stockpile at interest, to fill a hole that cannot be filled.
Goldman Sachs reported global stocks at 101 days of demand and projected they will fall to 98 days by end of May. HFI Research estimated that U.S. buffer crude product stores could run out in two weeks. U.S. buffer oil stores could run out in eight weeks. The only remaining buffers globally are U.S. commercial stocks and China’s strategic reserve.
Currie’s assessment on Bloomberg was definitive: “It’s baked in, full stop. It’s going to take so long to get all this restarted that those inventories will continue to draw.” Even if the war ended today, the shortages are inevitable.
DIESEL RUNS OUT FIRST AND THEN EVERYTHING STOPS
Not all fuels are equal in this crisis. Diesel runs out first. And when diesel stops, America stops.
U.S. distillate inventories (diesel and jet fuel combined) are 11 percent below the five-year average and at the lowest levels since 2005. In Michigan, diesel hit $6.00 per gallon. In the Great Lakes region, it is above $6.00. In California, projections range from $6.00 to $8.90 per gallon depending on how long the crisis continues.
Diesel is not a luxury fuel. Diesel is the blood supply of the American economy. Seventy percent of all agricultural and food products in the United States are transported by truck. Every truck runs on diesel. Every tractor in every field runs on diesel. Every combine harvester runs on diesel. Every refrigerated trailer keeping food cold on its way to your grocery store runs on diesel. Every freight train pulling grain cars runs on diesel.
When diesel becomes scarce, trucks stop moving. When trucks stop moving, food does not get picked up from farms. It does not get delivered to processing plants. It does not get driven to distribution centers. It does not arrive at grocery stores.
This is not inflation. Inflation is when prices go up. This is when the shelves go empty because there is nothing to put on them. There is nothing to put on them because there is no fuel to move the food from where it grows to where you live.
The United Nations has already sounded the alarm. UN News reported that the Hormuz disruption is raising fears of a global food crisis. FAO economists warned the situation could deteriorate further, particularly if countries begin restricting exports to protect domestic supplies, a pattern seen in every previous food crisis. Fertilizer prices are already surging because nitrogen fertilizer production depends on natural gas, and natural gas supplies through Hormuz have been cut. California nitrogen fertilizer prices have reached $450 to $575 per ton.
CNN reported that the oil crisis is turning into “an everything crisis.” Plastic caps, crates, snack bags, and containers are becoming harder to procure. Petroleum derivatives are needed for adhesives in footwear and furniture, industrial lubricants for machinery, solvents for paints and cleaning. Beer, noodles, chips, toys, cosmetics, kidney dialysis supplies, condoms. All of it depends on petroleum. All of it is being disrupted right now.
We are not approaching a food crisis. We are entering one. And it will become a famine if this continues through June and July, which the data says it will.
THE AVIATION COLLAPSE HAS ALREADY BEGUN
On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased all operations. The announcement came at 3:00 AM Eastern Time. Seventeen thousand workers lost their jobs. The airline’s lawyer said there was “no remaining way out.” Spirit had absorbed over $100 million in fuel costs since March 1. It is gone.
Spirit Airlines is not the last carrier that will fall. It is the first.
Jet fuel inventories at the European benchmark hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp have fallen 50 percent since the war began in late February. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, told Fortune the decline has been “a straight line down, and it will continue to be like that for at least the next few weeks no matter what we do.”
Goldman Sachs projects that European commercial jet fuel inventories will drop below the International Energy Agency’s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June. The U.K. is identified as the most at risk of jet fuel rationing. Some European countries hold no official jet fuel stock at all.
Lufthansa has canceled 20,000 flights through October. AirAsia X has raised fares 31 to 40 percent and cut capacity 10 percent. Air New Zealand has canceled 1,100 flights. Over 13,000 flights scheduled for May alone have been canceled across Europe. Almost two million seats have been removed from carrier schedules worldwide.
American Airlines estimated its 2026 fuel expenses at $4 billion higher than last year. Delta reported a $2 billion spike in fuel costs for the second quarter alone.
Galimberti told Fortune: “We’re still kind of sleepwalking into this approaching disaster. There is little doubt there is going to be a disaster.” He called it sleepwalking. That is the word. The data is screaming and the world is sleepwalking.
THE FUELS NOBODY TALKS ABOUT
The crisis extends far beyond what goes in your car or your truck. The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, has sustained damage at its Ras Laffan processing complex that has knocked out an estimated 17 percent of its capacity. Rystad Energy estimates the disruption has stripped 7 to 11 percent of annual global LNG supply from the market. Asia spot LNG prices have surged 140 percent, from $10 per million BTU before the war to above $25.
Liquefied petroleum gas, the fuel that feeds plastics manufacturing, chemical production, heating systems, and agricultural operations, has seen shipments stall as Gulf exports collapse. Goldman Sachs identifies LPG as a key shortage risk in Q2 2026.
Naphtha, the petrochemical feedstock that is the raw material for plastics, solvents, and industrial chemicals, is vanishing from Asian markets. Fujairah storage stocks are down 72 percent. Northwest Europe ARA naphtha stocks are down 37 percent. Singapore middle distillate prices have hit record highs above $290 per barrel. Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down because they cannot afford or obtain feedstock.
These are not consumer fuels. Most Americans will never hear about naphtha or LPG shortages. But they will feel them. Plastic packaging, medical supplies, fertilizer components, industrial chemicals, heating fuel for homes that use propane. All of it depends on supply chains that are breaking right now.
THE REGIONS THAT WILL BE HIT FIRST
Not every part of America faces the same level of risk. Geography determines vulnerability.
California operates as what analysts call an “energy island.” It is disconnected from the domestic pipeline network and relies almost entirely on sea-borne crude imports. The Chevron El Segundo refinery, the largest on the West Coast, is cut off from a significant portion of its supply with no pipeline alternative. California gas is already above $6.00 per gallon and climbing.
The southeastern United States depends heavily on the Colonial Pipeline, the major refined products pipeline running from the Gulf Coast to the Eastern Seaboard. That pipeline is currently seeing reduced throughput because Gulf Coast refineries are prioritizing exports to Europe, where the shortage is more acute. The Southeast may face localized shortages even before the national average reaches crisis levels.
Asia and the Pacific are being hit first and hardest. Shell CEO Wael Sawan told investors that “South Asia was first to get that brunt. That’s moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.” South Korea, Japan, and China together account for 75 percent of the oil that normally flows through Hormuz. Australia has already implemented government-mandated work-from-home orders. The Philippines moved to a four-day workweek. Vietnam ordered workers to stay home.
Europe faces immediate exhaustion of inventories this month. Heavy reliance on Qatari LNG and Saudi crude via Hormuz has led to industrial surcharges of up to 30 percent. Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne estimated that 10 to 13 million barrels per day have been drawn from global stocks since the crisis began, roughly 500 million barrels consumed so far. Equinor’s CEO has said it would take six or more months to normalize even after a deal is reached.
THE PRICE YOU SEE IS A LIE
There is something happening in the oil markets right now that most Americans will never hear about, and it may be the most important signal in this entire crisis.
There are two prices for oil. The ‘paper’ price is what you see on the news, the futures contracts traded on exchanges. Then there is the ‘physical’ price. This is what actual barrels of oil sell for when real buyers pay real money for real crude to be delivered to real refineries.
In a normal market, those two prices track each other closely. Right now they do not. The gap between them has ranged from $20 to $60 per barrel since the crisis began, depending on the day and the grade of crude.
On May 8, Brent crude futures settled around $101.65 per barrel. That is the number the headlines report. But on April 7, physical Dated Brent hit $144.42 per barrel, the highest recorded price since 1987. That is a gap of more than $40 in a single benchmark. The IEA reported physical crude spot prices near $150 per barrel in April.
Veteran energy investor George Noble captured the disconnect when paper settled at $90 and physical traded at $144 on the same day: ‘One of them is WRONG.’ He added, based on 45 years of experience, that when paper catches up to physical, the repricing will be ‘violent.
The price you see on the news is the paper price. The price the world is actually paying for oil is far higher. And when those two numbers converge, every price you pay for everything will move with them.
Reuters reported that short sellers placed $7 billion in oil-price bets ahead of major price movements in March and April, making hundreds of millions of dollars in profits. Somebody knew. Somebody positioned themselves to profit from the chaos. And they did.
THE 64-WEEK LAG THAT NOBODY UNDERSTANDS
Here is the fact that should keep every policymaker awake tonight. If the Strait of Hormuz opened this afternoon, completely and permanently, the first drop of new Persian Gulf gasoline would not reach a Midwestern gas pump until approximately June 2027. That is 64 weeks from now.
The math is straightforward. It takes roughly 40 days for a Very Large Crude Carrier to travel from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Once crude arrives at a refinery, it enters a multi-week refining process before it becomes usable fuel. Then the refined gasoline has to be moved from coastal refineries to inland distribution points, which takes another 10 to 14 days by pipeline and truck. Add it all together and you get 64 weeks from strait to pump.
That means the pain is locked in. Regardless of what happens diplomatically. Regardless of what deal is reached. Regardless of what any politician promises. The physical reality of moving oil across oceans, refining it, and distributing it to 150,000 gas stations cannot be compressed. No speech fixes this. No executive order fixes this. No tweet fixes this. Physics does not negotiate.
Currie confirmed this on Bloomberg: “You’re talking three-plus months to even start to get even a resemblance of this stuff beginning to flow.” And that three months is just the beginning. The full timeline to restored flow is over a year.
But the barriers go far beyond transit time. Shipping lanes must be cleared of mines. Maritime insurance companies must be convinced the strait is safe, and Lloyd’s of London will likely maintain war risk premiums for months after any peace deal. Ships must be repositioned. Production that was shut in must be restarted, a process that the post-COVID recovery showed can take up to two years, with permanent damage to some reservoirs if wells were not properly mothballed. Over two million barrels per day of Middle East refining capacity is offline or damaged. Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility has lost an estimated 17 percent of its capacity. Industry estimates put the repair timeline at up to five years. Critical equipment like gas turbines has OEM backlogs of two to four years. The total Gulf repair bill is estimated between $25 and $58 billion.
Even if peace comes tomorrow, the recovery takes years.
THE FORCED SHUTDOWN OF DEMAND
When supply disappears, demand must follow. Not because people choose to consume less. Because they are forced to.
Before the war, the IEA projected global oil demand would grow by 730,000 barrels per day in 2026. By their April report, that projection had been revised to a contraction of 80,000 barrels per day for the full year. Q2 2026 alone is projected to decline by 1.5 million barrels per day, the sharpest quarterly decline since COVID-19. Goldman Sachs projects an even steeper Q2 decline of 1.7 million barrels per day.
This is not conservation. This is demand destruction. It means factories closing. Flights canceled. Commutes eliminated. Agricultural operations scaled back. Economies contracting because there is not enough fuel to sustain them.
U.S. gasoline demand showed a sharp contraction in late April as prices surged and supply fears spread. The IEA projects Q2 2026 demand will decline by 1.5 million barrels per day, the steepest quarterly drop since COVID-19. Global refinery runs have been cut by nearly 6 million barrels per day, concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, because refiners cannot obtain crude to process.
EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey stated: “Our petroleum forecasts are highly contingent on the interaction of three variables: duration of closure, production outage estimates, and reopening timeline.” He then added the sentence that should alarm every American: “We’ve never seen the strait close, and we’ve never seen it reopen.”
Nobody knows how this ends because it has never happened before.
OPEC CANNOT SAVE US
In every previous oil crisis, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stepped in to stabilize the market by ramping up production. That is what OPEC exists to do. It cannot do it this time. The producers are trapped behind the blockade.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the countries with the capacity to pump more oil, cannot get their product to market through a closed strait. Saudi Arabia has partial diversion capability through the East-West Petroline pipeline to the Red Sea, but it is nowhere near enough to replace the volume that normally flows through Hormuz.
On April 28, the United Arab Emirates announced it was leaving OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1. The UAE is the third-largest OPEC producer at roughly 3.6 million barrels per day, about 12 percent of OPEC output. It was the largest producer withdrawal in the cartel’s 65-year history by volume. ADNOC, the UAE’s national oil company, now operates independently with its own Murban crude benchmark.
The traditional market stabilizer is paralyzed. Its biggest producers are locked behind a closed chokepoint. Its third-largest member just walked out the door. There is no OPEC cavalry coming.
THE UNITED STATES IS DRAINING ITSELF TO SUPPLY THE WORLD
While American storage tanks empty, the United States is exporting petroleum at all-time record levels. Total petroleum exports hit 14.2 million barrels per day in early 2026, a 33 percent increase from 2025. Refined product exports hit a fresh all-time high of 8.2 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose 27 percent. Diesel exports rose 23 percent. Jet fuel exports rose 82 percent.
Read that again. Jet fuel exports rose 82 percent while Spirit Airlines went bankrupt from fuel costs.
The United States is sending its fuel overseas to fill shortfalls in Europe and Asia while its own inventories collapse. U.S. crude imports are at fresh five-year seasonal lows. The country is simultaneously producing record volumes, exporting record volumes, and watching its own reserves drain at record speed.
The national average price of gasoline as of May 7 was $4.52 per gallon, up from $4.27 just one week earlier and up from $2.81 in January. California is at $5.84 to $6.17 per gallon. Diesel in Michigan hit $6.00.
In March alone, between the 2nd and the 16th, gas jumped from $3.01 to $3.96, nearly a dollar in two weeks. Diesel jumped from $3.89 to $5.37 in the same period.
These are not the final numbers. These are the numbers on the way to the final numbers. And the summer driving season has not even started yet.
THE DEBT WALL
This crisis does not arrive in a vacuum. It arrives on top of a national debt that has reached 100 percent of GDP, a level not seen since World War II. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published a report in March 2026 stating plainly: “The U.S. has never experienced an economic shock as indebted as we are today.”
Public debt is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to reach 130 percent of GDP within a decade and 240 percent within three decades under current policies. Annual interest payments on this debt have already tripled to $1 trillion since 2021.
Now layer an energy crisis on top of that. Tax revenue depends on economic activity. Economic activity depends on transportation. Transportation depends on fuel. When fuel stops, commerce stops. When commerce stops, tax revenue collapses. When tax revenue collapses, the government cannot service its debt or fund emergency response.
Rising prices from energy costs. Falling economic output from supply chain collapse. Ballooning debt with no capacity to borrow more. A currency that weakens as the economy contracts. All at the same time.
The triple whammy that no one in Washington appears to be planning for, because no one in Washington appears to understand what is happening.
WHY THIS IS WORSE THAN ANYTHING THAT HAS COME BEFORE
In 1973, the Arab oil embargo disrupted roughly 8 percent of global supply. Prices quadrupled. It took five months to resolve.
In 1979, the Iranian Revolution disrupted roughly 7 percent. Prices doubled. The effects lasted years.
In 1990, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait disrupted roughly 7 percent. Prices doubled. A coalition formed and resolved it in six months.
In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted roughly 3 percent of supply. Prices spiked 60 percent.
In 2026, the Hormuz closure has disrupted 15 to 20 percent of global supply. Physical oil has already hit $144 per barrel. This is three times the Kuwait disruption. Twice the 1973 embargo. And unlike 1973, OPEC cannot respond because OPEC’s own members are locked behind the blockade. Unlike 1990, there is no quick coalition solution because the damage is physical and structural, not just political.
This is the largest gross disruption to global oil supply in modern history. There is no precedent for it. The EIA administrator said it himself: “We’ve never seen the strait close, and we’ve never seen it reopen.”
THE MAN WITH THE PIECE OF PAPER
While the oil supply of the United States counts down to zero, while Europe’s storage tanks drain to nothing, while Spirit Airlines shuts down and 17,000 people lose their jobs, while the UN warns of global famine, while analysts at Carlyle and Rystad and Goldman Sachs use words like “disaster” and “unprecedented” and “baked in,” the President of the United States is carrying around a piece of paper.
All day long. Pulling it out of his pocket. Showing it to anyone who walks into the room.
It is a drawing of a golden ballroom. He is obsessed. The design. The aesthetics of a room that does not yet exist while the country he is supposed to be leading runs out of fuel.
That is where we are. A president focused on a ballroom sketch while the system collapses. A cabinet that does not appear to grasp the scale of what is occurring. A Congress that funded the war without demanding a contingency plan for what happens when 20 percent of global oil supply disappears. Republicans who backed every decision that brought us here. Democrats who did not cry out loudly enough to stop it before it started.
He is a child with a drawing. And the house is on fire.
This cabinet is not a functioning government. It is a clown circus that cannot see past the next press conference. And the people of this nation are about to pay for their incompetence with empty shelves, empty tanks, and empty futures.
WHY NOBODY STOPPED THIS
Every analyst I have cited in this piece is on the record. Currie at Carlyle said it on Bloomberg Television two days ago. Galimberti at Rystad told Fortune we are “sleepwalking into this approaching disaster.” Shell’s CEO warned the system “cannot simply switch back on.” The IEA projects global oil demand will decline because people are being forced to stop consuming. The data is public. The experts are speaking. The indicators are flashing red on every dashboard in every energy trading floor on the planet.
And yet the world allowed this to happen.
China saw it. They account for a massive share of Hormuz oil imports. Russia saw it. Europe saw it. Japan and South Korea saw it. They are being hit first and hardest. The United Nations saw it and issued warnings about food crisis. Every energy ministry on Earth has access to the same data I am presenting in this article.
So why did no one stop it? Why did no world leader cry out from the rooftop before it got to this point? Why did they allow a military operation to proceed that was guaranteed to close the most important energy chokepoint on the planet, knowing full well what that would do to the global oil supply, to food systems, to economies that run on diesel, to billions of people who depend on affordable fuel to eat?
Why did Israel participate in strikes they had to know would trigger this cascade? Why did the United Nations not mobilize before the tanks started draining? Why did Korea, Japan, India, who knew their economies would be devastated, not scream before February 28?
I do not have the answer. Either the cascade was not modeled correctly by anyone, which is itself an indictment of every intelligence agency and energy ministry on the planet. Or it was modeled and the geopolitical momentum could not be stopped. Or leadership in every capital made a calculation that this was acceptable risk.
None of those explanations excuse what is about to happen.
And there is a darker question. Who benefits from global collapse? Defense contractors benefit from conflict. Energy traders placed $7 billion in bets ahead of major price swings and made hundreds of millions. Oil companies with production outside the disrupted zone benefit from record prices. But at the scale this crisis is reaching, even those actors lose. BlackRock collapses. The banking system collapses. Currency collapses. There is nothing left to profit from.
Which means either they did not see the scale of the cascade they set in motion, or there is a calculation we cannot see from the outside. Either answer is terrifying.
THE FAILURE THAT CANNOT BE FORGIVEN
A government that launches a war and does not plan for the energy consequences of that war is not a functioning government. A Congress that funds military operations without demanding a contingency plan for what happens when 20 percent of global oil supply disappears overnight is not a functioning Congress. A cabinet that watches fuel inventories collapse for ten weeks without mobilizing a national emergency response is not a functioning cabinet.
We are eight weeks from tank bottoms in the United States. Diesel inventories are at 2005 lows. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drained. The last tanker from the Middle East has already docked and been emptied. The 64-week lag means there is no fast fix. Europe’s tank bottoms arrive this month. Ours arrive in July.
And the people responsible for this are still in office.
This is not a partisan argument. This is a question of basic competence and the survival of the nation. Any administration, any party, any leader who brought the nation and the world to this point has demonstrated a failure so profound that it disqualifies them from further governance.
People will lose their jobs over this. People will lose their savings. People will go hungry. People will die. In the parts of the world that were already on the edge, millions will die.
When the shelves start emptying in American grocery stores, when diesel hits $8 and $9 a gallon and truckers cannot afford to run their routes, when airlines fold and regional airports close, when farmers cannot afford to harvest the crops they planted, when communities discover that the complex system delivering their food and fuel has simply stopped functioning because there is no fuel left to run it, the American people will want to know who did this.
The answer is a government that started a war without understanding what it would break. A Congress that backed it without question. A political movement more interested in cultural control than national survival. A president who spends his days pulling a ballroom drawing out of his pocket and showing it to everyone in the room while the nation runs out of fuel. And world leaders who saw this coming and said nothing.
These people should not be in office an hour longer. Not because of ideology. Because of the mathematics of oil supply, logistics, and food distribution. Because the data says they have brought us to a door we cannot walk back through, and they are still standing there pretending the door does not exist.
Every government that allowed this to happen, from Washington to Brussels to Beijing to Jerusalem, must answer for it. The people of every nation affected by this crisis have the right to demand new leadership. Not next year. Not at the next scheduled election. Now. Because the timeline does not wait for elections. Tank bottoms do not wait for political convenience.
The UN was built to prevent exactly this kind of cascading global catastrophe. It failed. NATO intelligence agencies briefed their leaders on the consequences of a Hormuz closure. Those leaders proceeded anyway. Every one of them should face their citizens and explain why they allowed billions of people to be put at risk of famine.
WHAT I AM TELLING YOU AND WHY
Some will say I am overstating this. That governments will intervene. That rationing will slow the cascade. That emergency measures will buy time. That the system will adapt.
Maybe. Governments may ration fuel. Emergency shipping corridors may be established. Military convoys may move critical supplies. Demand destruction may reduce consumption enough to stretch what remains a few weeks further.
None of that changes the physical reality.
The data says tank bottoms hit in Europe this month and in the United States by July 4. The data says diesel runs out first. The data says 70 percent of American food moves by truck and every truck runs on diesel. The cascade from diesel shortage to food shortage is not a probability estimate. It is a mechanical fact. When the fuel stops, the trucks stop. When the trucks stop, the food stops. Emergency measures may soften the impact. They will not prevent it.
This is not a probability assessment. This is a warning. And the difference between a warning you act on and a warning you dismiss is measured in whether your family eats in August.
You need to prepare now. Not because collapse is guaranteed in every detail. But because the physical shortage is real, the timeline is fixed, and the window to prepare is closing. If emergency measures work and the worst does not come, you will have extra food in your pantry and fuel in your shed. If they do not work and you did nothing, you will have neither.
That is not a hard calculation.
WHAT YOU MUST DO NOW
This is not a drill. This is not a warning about something that might happen in the distant future. This is happening right now. The countdown is measured in weeks. Days in some places.
If you are reading this, your survival in the next two months depends on what you do starting today. Not tomorrow. Not this weekend. Today.
Stop what you are doing and start acquiring the things that will keep you and your family alive.
Food. Non-perishable goods, canned foods, dried goods, rice, beans, anything with a long shelf life. Buy what you can afford right now because the prices will be higher next week and higher the week after that, and at some point the issue will not be price. It will be availability. The shelves will be empty. Not because of panic buying. Because there is no diesel to run the trucks that fill them.
Water. Store it. If pumping stations lose power or fuel, municipal water systems can be affected. Fill containers. Buy filters. Know your nearest natural water source.
Fuel. If you can store diesel, gasoline, or propane safely and legally, do it now. Not next week. Now.
Know your local food supply. Know your local farmers. Know your local supply chains. The communities that will survive this are the ones with local food production and local distribution networks that do not depend entirely on long-haul trucking from a thousand miles away.
Talk to your neighbors. Organize. Share information. Pool resources. This is a community-level challenge, not an individual one. The people who survive systemic disruption are the ones who organize, share, and look out for each other.
And hear me on this: stop treating your debt as your priority. Your credit card payment is not your priority. Your mortgage payment is not your priority. Your priority is physical survival. Food. Water. Fuel. Shelter. Community. Every dollar you spend servicing debt to financial institutions is a dollar you do not have for the things that will keep your family alive.
In a systemic collapse, the institutions holding your debt will become insolvent. The currency you are using to pay them may become worthless. The enforcement mechanisms that collect on debts require a functioning legal system, and a functioning legal system requires a functioning society. When the diesel runs out and the shelves empty, the society you know stops functioning. Use every available resource to acquire what you need to survive the next months. Redirect what you have toward survival, not toward keeping a credit score alive in a system that is collapsing. You can settle debts in a depreciated currency later, if the creditor still exists to collect them.
This is not financial advice. This is triage. And triage means you save the living first.
Demand accountability from your government. Call your representatives today. Tell them you know what the data shows. Tell them you know what tank bottoms means. Tell them you know the 64-week lag means this is locked in regardless of what happens diplomatically. Tell them the people who brought this crisis to your door need to answer for it now, not after the shelves are empty.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Brent crude: $101.65 per barrel as of May 8, 2026. Physical oil trading near $150.
U.S. gasoline: $4.52 per gallon national average as of May 7. Up from $2.81 in January. California above $6.00.
Strait of Hormuz: 95 percent traffic collapse. Effectively closed since February 28.
The last Middle East oil tanker to reach California: the New Corolla, Long Beach, May 3. No more coming.
U.S. distillate (diesel/jet fuel) inventories: 11 percent below five-year average. Lowest since 2005.
Europe: tank bottoms this month.
United States: tank bottoms by July 4.
Recovery if peace comes today: 64 weeks minimum to first fuel delivery. Two years to full production recovery. Five years for damaged LNG infrastructure.
Spirit Airlines: gone. Seventeen thousand jobs, gone.
Seventy percent of American food moves by diesel truck.
The president is carrying around a drawing of a ballroom.
You do the math.
Copyright © Mark A. Shryock. May be shared with attribution.
Editorial Note: EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey stated on the record: “We’ve never seen the strait close, and we’ve never seen it reopen.” In the ten weeks since, the administration’s public communications focused on infrastructure aesthetics. No national emergency fuel rationing framework was activated. The data in this brief is drawn from EIA, IEA, Bloomberg, Fortune, AP, Reuters, and Goldman Sachs — all on the record.
SOURCES
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report, May 6, 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Short-Term Energy Outlook, April/May 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), DOE SPR release report, April 24, 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, May 5, 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Strategic petroleum inventory data, 2025-2026
International Energy Agency (IEA), Oil Market Report, April 2026
IEA, 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker
Bloomberg Television, Jeff Currie interview, May 6, 2026
Bloomberg, “Oil Market Fails to Price In Iran Supply Shock, Carlyle’s Currie Says,” March 18, 2026
Fortune, “Europe’s jet fuel supplies should fall below the key 23-day shortage threshold in June,” May 6, 2026
Goldman Sachs Research, European jet fuel/petroleum inventory analysis, May 2026
CNN, “Spirit Airlines canceled all flights and is going out of business,” May 2, 2026
CNN, “How traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shrank to a trickle,” May 2026
CNN, “Iran imposes new rules for Hormuz” (Lloyd’s List data: 40 ships in week to May 3), May 2026
CNN, “Noodles, kidney dialysis, condoms: the global oil crisis is turning into an everything crisis,” 2026
Associated Press, “California braces for uncertainty as last shipment of Persian Gulf oil arrives in Long Beach,” May 3, 2026
CBS Los Angeles, “California gas prices reach highest mark in years as last oil shipment arrives,” May 2026
Hellenic Shipping News, Statement from Port of Long Beach CEO on New Corolla, May 2026
IBTimes UK, “Four-Week Fuel Countdown Begins,” May 2026
Al Jazeera, “UAE leaves OPEC in blow to oil cartel during war on Iran,” April/May 2026
Al Jazeera, “When will Strait of Hormuz be safe for commercial shipping again?” 2026
Khaleej Times, “UAE announces decision to withdraw from OPEC,” April 28, 2026
NPR, “Energy analyst discusses impact of fuel shortage across industries,” 2026
NPR, “Pakistan says it’s hopeful a U.S.-Iran deal can happen soon,” 2026
PBS News, “Soaring gas prices and supply chain disruptions drive up costs,” 2026
UN News, “‘Clock is ticking’: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis,” 2026
The Wall Street Journal, “The Iran War’s Other Energy Shortage: Food,” 2026
Reuters, “Oil-Price Bets Ahead of Iran War News Totalled $7 Billion,” 2026
AAA, national and state gasoline price averages, May 2026
Finder.com (AAA data), weekly gas price averages, May 7, 2026
TradingEconomics, Brent crude, WTI, and gasoline futures data, May 8, 2026
Macrotrends, U.S. SPR weekly inventory data, week of May 1, 2026
FRED/St. Louis Federal Reserve, U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, May 2026
Fortune, “America’s never had such high national debt heading into an economic shock,” 2026
Fortune, “Current price of oil as of May 7, 2026”
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Break Glass: A Plan for the Next Economic Shock,” March 10, 2026
Congressional Budget Office, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036”
Brookings Institution, “Economic issues to watch in 2026”
Economics Help, “The 2026 Oil Crisis” and “Why 2026 Oil Crisis is About More Than Just Oil”
Michigan diesel price reporting, 2026
Kpler Container Intelligence, “Two months in: What container data tells us about the Hormuz crisis,” May 7, 2026
Wikipedia, “2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis” and “2026 Strait of Hormuz campaign”
Wikipedia, “2026 Iran war fuel crisis”
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, “Energy Quantamentals: The Oil Crisis in the Eyes of a Financial Trader,” 2026
S&P Global/Platts, Global Jet Fuel Index
Rystad Energy, via Fortune
HFI Research, buffer store timeline analysis
Commodity Context, physical-paper price analysis
CoventryLive/The Times (UK), “Summer holiday flights warning,” May 2026
The Deep Dive, “Oil Storage Tanks in US to Run Dry by July 4,” May 6, 2026
Peace and Justice Post, “Oil, Empire, and the Price of War,” May 4, 2026
New Security Beat, “A New Oil Crisis Stress-Tests the Global Energy Transition,” 2026
International Relations Review, “Chokepoint Crisis,” April 28, 2026
ThirdWay Think-Tank, “2026 Oil Crunch: The Looming Global Crisis Ahead,” 2026
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Starmer hallway interview, he has his takeaway lesson from the life-ending blowout election: He says Labour did wonderfully, but perhaps made only ONE mistake: There was this one time he told the truth, and told the public that there would be hardships and challenges to enact their vision.
So if only Starmer hadn’t told the truth that one time, it would have all worked out. No joke.
This is from Alex C, who points out Trump is surrendering to Putin in Ukraine here. …A war we are not in with men, money, or materials. So there are two places where you surrender unconditionally: One where you’re not in the war at all, either officially nor unofficially, and I expect therefore we will be surrendering to 190+ nations tomorrow; AND, in a war that is kinda mostly declared and official, but where the other side’s army has been wiped out and the nation is a smoldering ruin. While your side has Dow 50k and record job creation. That’s the OTHER time you surrender. In #OppositeLand.
“Iran-Linked Media Floats Data Tax On Hormuz Undersea Internet Cables
Yes, if you’d like to piss off every nation on earth MORE than what you’re already doing holding their ships hostage, go ahead and let us know who you are. If anything moves within 100 miles of Iran, you want a cut. …And if you got those missiles, apparently 1,000 miles? 12,000 miles?
“Global Fertilizer Shortage Means Spring Planting Season Disaster In The Northern Hemisphere
Or not, since we’re buying from Russia, our ally.
“EUROPE IS SHIFTING RIGHT — HARD!”
Yes, but they’re about as far Right as Chuck Schumer. They are far, far, far to the Left of Bill Clinton. The head of the furthest party, the “Far Right” AfD is a gay woman with an immigrant wife. Literally Hitler. Thus the overton window, the ratchet, you never take back the ground you lost, so to speak. They set what is ‘normal’ so when we return to normal it’s not 1950, not 1970, not even 1990. It’s like reversing to 2020 is “Radical Far Right.” No.
Btw, it’s not “Left or Right” it’s “Does it work at all?”
“evidence that 2020 election votes were RIGGED”
Sure but it’s been so long there is literally no evidence that would convince people. Jesus Christ and God Almighty could come down in a cloud and personally hand a copy to every disbeliever and they wouldn’t change. I mean, day of we all saw videos of them feeding the ballots through over and over with the windows boarded up, so…
““Every last one of them voted for Biden…”Like I said, that is not suspicious at all. The won’t believe a word and keep on shooting everyone at every event, applauded by the media who climbs over themselves to have dinners with “Literally Hitler”.
“If President Trump cannot admit he lost in 2020, how can we expect him to honor the results of the upcoming midterm elections?”
There you go, and the key is, HE can say this, but do a significant number of people agree? Yes. Delaying had advantages, but this is a key drawback.
“• Trump Says Iran Response “Totally Unacceptable” (ZH)
You mean we’re NOT going to unconditionally surrender to a country with no army or navy, and deliver them free nukes a trillion in reparations, and a lifetime agreement for toll collecting? That’s so Chaotic, who can understand the irrational ways of Trump? Must be he didn’t surrender to the defeated army because his ego is too big.
““Whether in times of war or peace, only the Islamic Republic of Iran can establish security in this strait and will not allow any country to interfere in such matters,” he said.”
Not like, say, Oman, and UAE who are on the other side of that strait? No? Yeah, we know, it was Omani waters you invaded and mined.
Also those are of course full throwdown fighting words to the U.S., saying they are not allowed anywhere near the Middle East, even on “open” waterways. Okay then, no surprise.
“As of today, our restraint is over”. Luring us in. Okay. I’m sure you have some missiles left. See what it gets you.
“Iran killing our people with roadside bombs”, in Savannah, sir? In Biloxi? Why would we be anywhere near their bombs? Hmmm. Might want to shut up while you’re ahead, but nope.
“• Trump: Only Way To Secure Border Is Vote Republican (Sharyl Attkisson)
We haven’t secured the border either, and most of the deportations are voluntary. Would you like to get back to me when you’ve done something?
Pezeshkian: Like all these guys, I have no idea what he’s saying. Just a bunch of abstractions. Having Uranium powder is not the pivot on which sovereignty rests. No one is invading you, so there’s no need for surrender or retreat. This is apparently your internal emotional state you’re worried about, as you specifically have to deny that talking to other humans is not surrender. Uhhh, no s—t? Sherlock? Every other human on earth knows that except you and doesn’t need a caveat? Like doesn’t that itself demonstrate you’re a war-mongering maniac? Yeah, no kidding NORMAL states talk to everyone always. That’s why it was ridiculous for Biden (and all Europe) to refuse to talk to Russia, in a desperate bid to make everything as bad as possible, far worse than it has to be. And you’re following his error. TALKING to people is not “Bowing your head” Jesus Christ where are you from?
And you’re not advancing a “Stronger Iran” if everyone is dead. Taking a hit when you’re only down this far, and re-building for Round 2 is what being “Stronger” is. Go on, man. I was on your side, but you’re a parody of yourself. I didn’t actually believe the bad things Israel was saying about you until you just confirmed it. And here I was hoping Israel would get flattened instead of you.
““Iran will no longer allow passages that are harmful to its interests”
Okay, well I’m sure you have a couple AKs left so use those. SAYING something, WANTING something, and violently enforcing your will against 7 armies are two very different things. One of them is in “Reality”.
“IRGC further said it will respond “powerfully and without the slightest hesitation” to any aggression or attack.”
But later. In 2045. Then they’ll respond when we least expect it. Again, IF you have anything, isn’t now the time to use it? Not after we die of old age and your last sailor has been cut in two with minigun fire? Where are we that — I — care more about your soldiers and sailors than you do?
“• Trump Ignored CIA Warnings on Iran (Paul Craig Roberts)
Yes. Because “CIA” or the how many? 17? 117? Intel agencies we have running around all disagree on everything. So some said yes, and some said no. Then the media reports both that Trump obeyed them, but also ignored them. Oh, right: if I remember correctly THAT’S THE PRESIDENT’S JOB, to hear a couple of Cabinet Members, etc, all pitch their plans and to sort out only ONE plan, between them. That’s “Executive” to “Decide”. Not have A and B running at the same time, but uncoordinated. Like remember Yellen was fighting against…State Dept by flying to China? Every sub-department, just doing whatever they want? Yes, Deciding BETWEEN them, who all disagree, is practically the only reason to HAVE a President. He Presides.
Nope. Not anymore. The President OBEYS. He OBEYS any bureaucracy that slaps paper on his desk. As some many have and You see this worldwide. Now: problem is, WHEN you decide, now you own it. The Buck Stops Here. I think he’s okay with that, but that is the offset. Now note, IF CIA has been wrong and Trump OBEYED them, …THEY’D STILL BLAME TRUMP for the bad intel.
So they want it both ways: since 1990, 1960, the CIA gives the President catastrophically bad intel. Then when it blows up, they blame the President. Given the CIA’s unbroken record, any time any President ignores them, I say “Good!” Always do the opposite of whatever they want! But then as an adult it’s not that simple, but that’s my initial reaction, and should be. It is not PCR’s, a Boomer.
“• The CIA, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and John Brennan (CTH)
Like here. Not a moment in 10 years they haven’t been screwing the President. And this goes back to Eisenhower. It was only SO BAD that Kennedy couldn’t stand it just a few years after they were born.
“Two senior officials. Same message. Same urgency. That’s not a coincidence.” AI speak writ large and wasting my d—n time. Ugh.
“My own personal comment is that it would be wonderful if America got back to a point where fathers were doing so well financially that more mothers could afford to stay home as my mom did with their kids, which is very beneficial for the children.”
How dare you imprison women into slavery by having them not work. I expect every woman in America to write you a letter today DEMANDING to leave the house and camp in a cube farm away from their filthy oppressive children.
“• Mark Carney Celebrates “Europe Day” In Toronto with Obama and Alex Soros (CTH)
No Kings. That’s why Carney is literally from the King, and he highlighted the Inspector General, head of the Armed forces and a representative of the King, who will be giving Carney his orders. Just like they do in Saudi Arabia and other monarchies. Freeedommmm!!!!
“• Democrats Keep Betting Gazillions on Bad Ideas (David Manney)Well, I mean that’s super lucky for us. What is the prayer, if we can’t be better Lord at least make our enemies fools? This is why it seems we have Epstein on a lot of DNC operatives, and are ordering them not to moderate and become reasonable, but the opposite: to go as far Democrat as possible, into DSA and straight on ‘til morning!
Why? We already tried moderating the whole time, 50-100 years, and just makes us their codependent, HELPING the parasite. The only thing is to give them everything the crazy person asks for and more. Sadly. Like WE know that won’t work and make a mess, but the PEOPLE can’t seem to know that without seeing it and throwing up, giving up the Rock forever.
“• Too Many Democrats Are a Special Kind of Stupid (Derek Hunter)
Who knew that hating all men and asking them to die (49% of the population) wouldn’t be popular at the vote?
“they view people as groups they own the votes of and can manipulate in order to achieve their political goals.”
That’s because they are the Schmartz pepos and all the others are mere pawn NPCs who believe whatever lies you tell them. You’re killing them for their own good, really, like the Philosopher Kings.
“More Black Members of Congress represent majority-white districts than don’t, but Democrats still insist the country is racist”
Again, they see the only action and fact is race: they are racists. The only reason anyone would vote is race, and all people of any race vote the same. This is the only basis for even WANTING racial segregation in districting. So in TN, where they are taking out the only Blue District, the Democrats are once again fighting AGAINST a Black Woman, and FOR the whites: the GOP Rep is Black there, the all-black district has a White congressman. Same as they did with Joe. They are the party of old white men who believe in “Superpredators” and voted for Black Prison Bill. So proud.
“you have to keep in mind that their leadership is not stupid; they’re evil. They know what they’re doing and why:
“
Yes, but it’s slightly off the obvious. YES they are evil, but WHY? Above, they think THEY are real full humans with agency, all other humans are animals, puppets who must obey them. That is, EGO. THEY are the smart people, everyone else is dumb, therefore THEY should be God, should be King. The purpose of all other life is to submit and obey them and give them things. This is exactly the same as the KKK, which is why they fit so well together, or Nazi Germany and the Aryan Race, descended from the Angels. It’s a “Brotherhood of Man” but those other people, those other races, aren’t actually “Men” tho, are they? They are Untermensch. Subhumans. Slavs, Blacks, Republicans, you know the type.While this is tempting for all people, and Republicans dismiss “Blue Hairs” as well, ultimately they will say all humans have a soul than can be redeemed and they are off the path, mistaken. We wish they would listen and discuss. THEY say, the Blue seem to say, Those people are evil at birth, mostly by dint of their race, and should be smothered in the cradle for the greater good. That is, we do NOT talk, argue, discuss, they are NOT equal and can NOT be redeemed. This leads to a huge difference. And also in whether you take up mass-shootings or not, how violently you prosecute your cause. If you believe they are humans but sadly mistaken, every soldier you shoot is a tragedy and hard to kill. While if you think they are vermin from birth and not human anyway, well shooting them is really doing the world a favor and sleep like a baby.
…And so we see in the big world daily.
So the Evil is EGO. It’s Separation. It’s thinking you’re different and better than they are.
Here’s a good example:
“Trenin went on to describe Ukrainians as a “part of the bigger Russian nation” that is being “misguided” and “used by the West in [its]… very long war against Russia,”Russia is saying Ukraine is ‘mistaken” and would prefer for them to wake up. They do not want war or to kill them. The Ukrainians have the opposite view. This is after 300k Russians dead? Pretty generous, really.
“Commenting on Trump’s attempts at mediation, Trenin claimed that the US president is “essentially powerless to insist on something that is of central importance to ending this conflict,” and so his role is rather limited”
No, no, Alex and Berletic, etc all say Trump is the principle and only actor in this war that started while Biden was in office and busy arresting him. That’s how we know it’s Trump’s war and Trump’s fault. Fox News is now ignoring it entirely, since it’s not “Man Bad.” If it’s not anti-America, they ignore it, they’ve got work to do! We’ve got a Civil War to start and Globalists to help!
“Trump has apparently been unable to get EU warmongers and the Ukrainian leadership to act on the understanding reached by him and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage”
No one knows what’s in that doc, but yes, this appears to be the case exactly.
“• West Rewriting World War II History – Moscow (RT)
Oddly for the Soviet Union, they are all communists. All the USSR bureaucrats now relocated to the EU, and all the US University professors who are their employees. So it’s today’s Socialists who are erasing the history and successes of the Soviet Socialist State. The most successful one that ever was. So “the ends justify the means” they will lie about anything in the past to gain a gram of power today.
“• The Digital Revolution Will Destroy Humanity (Paul Craig Roberts)
Already has. Paved all the farmland for solar. “Do you know how badly you have to torture a mammal to get them to not breed??” They’ve done that…and beyond.
“100,000 articles were published globally about Hantavirus in days.”
Let’s repeat that. I am a coincidence theorist and this is not suspicious at all.
“EIGHT WEEKS TO EMPTY SHELVES. SIXTY DAYS TO FAMINE.”
We’re already 70 days in and more food than ever. Go on…“I have run this research across four separate large language models.”
Oh my living God, no wonder it’s so wrong. He ran it through a supercomputer that can’t count to 200.“What I am about to show you is not speculation. It is not opinion. It is the documented, sourced, verified trajectory of the global oil supply as it exists right now, on May 8, 2026.”
Completely AI-generated paragraph, in the flesh.His point about refineries, etc, all true IN CALIFORNIA. Where THE GOVERNOR specifically took action over years, but especially recently to CAUSE it to happen. Then you’re gonna blame the other guy who told you not to do that. Trump can take emergency control of the CA energy system Exxon told them not to break, and has taken measures to do so, but essentially until there is a serious crisis in CA – and therefore AZ and NM – he won’t have the popular support, nor will people understand. So a SECOND level of why this never had to happen, and they’re MAKING it collapse for no earthly reason at all except spite.
“On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased all operations.”
Yes, because they went bankrupt LAST YEAR. Before all this. Warren prevented the company from being bought out nicely, forcing its collapse.
So as you see, a tremendous mish-mash of real, fake, relevant, irrelevant, local, and universal. You’re not going to clear your head reading this, you’re going to end up more misled and confused at a time – as the author says – the situation is very serious.
“the first drop of new Persian Gulf gasoline would not reach a Midwestern gas pump until approximately June 2027. That is 64 weeks from now.”
Except NO oil from Persia EVER goes to the midwest. Right? So great example of the author’s dangerously loose association with the truth. If you say “Denmark” then maybe, but IDGAF what happens in Denmark: figure it out. They have many means we don’t have, like bicycles, etc that might give it a lot less impact, I dunno. But if it was a problem, they should have done something decades ago to insure themselves. We did: We drilled a f—k ton of oil and built refineries, including 3 new ones we’re going to sell to you jokers in Europe and get rich.
“stepped in to stabilize the market by ramping up production. That is what OPEC exists to do.”
No. OPEC exists expressly to do the exact OPPOSITE. It is meant to LIMIT oil and keep the price up (and stable). Author cannot distinguish – or doesn’t care – between a thing and its opposite. Also bot Ven and UAE just left.
“While American storage tanks empty, the United States is exporting petroleum at all-time record levels.”
Because as an Expert, he doesn’t know or care what I, a Layman and Simpleton, just told you 10 seconds ago: CA intentionally sabotaged all oil, known for years if not decades: 3 NEW refineries, in addition to all the previous ones, exporting in Texas where they are NOT intentionally sabotaging everything. Meaning it was always voluntary.
Like AI, the article goes on and on, begin 2/3rds longer than it needs to be, while multiplying lies and misunderstandings in a firehose fury, as above.
“Why did Israel participate in strikes they had to know would trigger this cascade?” Why indeed, sir. You are saying “I have not the faintest idea what is going on, listen to me.” No, actually I would prefer to listen to someone who DOES have a theory and idea. Then we can test it.
Like the part about “The U.S. is going to be rich and energy independent, bringing California to heel, who will have to start working and drilling again.” Republicans will take the state and flip it back to doing work instead of collapsing and can’t do that until it fails bad enough the people want change. But whyever would these actions happen? Except any outsider reading nothing but headlines under a bridge can figure it out in a fortnight. Like me.
@ Dr D “You mean we’re NOT going to unconditionally surrender to a country with no army or navy…”
Yeah – I mean when has the US ever done that before. Laugh with me at the ridiculousness of the thought!
Oh wait I just remembered one – Afghanistan! Retreating in blind panic with people hanging to the undercarriage of your aircraft is the very acme of victory! Just as well there is no Afghan army or navy, otherwise the Afghanis might have won. Close call.Hang on – I have another, more geographically and temporally relevant one coming through…… ‘Operation Rough Rider’ remember that one? When the Houthis (No army, no navy) sent Hegseth’s invincible band of merry sailors packing, having imposed precisely zero of the US demands on them (that means the US gave up, aka ‘Surrendered’ btw) but after blowing several billion taxpayer dollars rearranging the sand dunes in Yemen?
Yeah – Trump will surrender, but only after spending several hundred billion dollars rearranging the gravel on the mountains above the Iranian underground facilities and causing irreparable damage to the Global (including US) economic and geopolitical system while he’s at it. Not sure why I’m even discussing this with someone who takes every word Donald gibbers into his Truth Social account as some kind of biblical revealed truth, but I feel that ‘Facts’ are quite important.
What happened to, what I thought as an agreed upon, notion that D & R are “two cheeks of the same ass”???
A negotiated settlement for a sovereign Iran is nigh impossible
Contact us: info@strategic-culture.suPutting two sides together — let alone three — who have wildly diverse chronicles of their histories and even less commonality in charting their future national trajectory was innately unlikely to reach an agreed settlement. More likely in such ill-prepared encounters is often an ill-tempered recapitulation of the general lack of congruence.
This was the case in last month’s Islamabad ‘talks’ between the U.S. and Iran — with Israel acting as third-party proxy for ‘collective forces’ trying to ‘force the end’ (a Greater Israel regional hegemony) — by demanding effectively massive (and unrestricted) regional territorial control for Israel.
For such talks to serve a purpose, they would have to concretise an underlying level of agreement between the parties — if such can be found. Otherwise, the best that may emerge will be informal arrangements that are never formalised, but may, in the instant, suit the interests of the parties involved. Such understandings last as long as they last. That’s it.
Esmail Baqaei, spokesman of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, noted that over these 47 years, deep distrust and suspicion have accumulated with the U.S.:
“You should not expect that within a short period of time, after an extraordinarily bloody war, in which … Iran, having fought two regimes armed with nuclear weapons, two exceptionally ruthless regimes, whose brutality we witnessed over the past two and a half years in the crimes of Gaza and Lebanon, would quickly reach a settlement [with us]”.
Aurelien succinctly outlines the impasse:
“The U.S. (present) and Israel (present by proxy) want to damage and if possible, destroy Iran as a functioning state. For the U.S., this is revenge for nearly fifty years of humiliation, dating from the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the disastrous failure of the subsequent rescue mission – as well as for Iranian attempts to frustrate U.S. policies in the Levant. For Israel, the objective is to destroy the only country standing between them and their domination of the region. (The U.S. also represents this objective vicariously). The Iranians obviously want to prevent all this, but they also want an end to sanctions and isolation”.
Esmail Baqaei adds:
“Our central concern is that we reach a point as soon as possible where we can say with confidence that the threat of war [against Iran] no longer exists”.
The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, expands on the Iranian objectives by stating explicitly:
‘A new era has begun in the Strait of Hormuz, and American hegemony has come to an end’.
In short, Iran is determined to achieve a ‘breakout’ from the ‘cage’ of 74 years of U.S. military encirclement — sanctions, siege and political isolation — and by so doing, as the Supreme Leader noted, to radically change the geopolitical complexion of the entire region.
Israeli military sociologist Yagil Levy, writing in Haaretz however, argues that Israel’s behaviour notably altered in the wake of the 7 October attacks, and in its aftermath is defined by the “adoption of a ‘hard’ version of Permanent Security … The latter was [in fact], perceived as already having been achieved [through] military superiority and of international tolerance”.
“Relative permanent security, the ‘soft’ version, was [contrasted] to a remnant of the security concept that made the [7 Oct] Hamas attack possible – even if the attack was caused by an Israeli omission and did not constitute a new real threat”.
“Permanent Security” — a concept originally coined by historian Professor Dirk Moses — was seen in Israel, post-7 October, as not only offering the the elimination of immediate threats, but also future ones:
“Striving for a permanent solution does not allow for compromise, whether political or deterrent, but rather involves the extermination, expulsion, or control of a population perceived as a threat to the security of the state”.
(Professor Dirk Moses has outlined that the term ‘permanent security’ in fact originates from Otto Ohlendorf, “a Nazi war criminal, who before being hanged … at Nuremberg by the Americans, [said that] … Jewish children would have grown up to become partisan enemies … [and that we] had to understand that the Germans didn’t just want regular security but permanent security: they were building a thousand-year Reich”).
Meron Rapoport and Ameer Fakhoury outline how the latest war on Iran,
“elevated the concept of “permanent security” to yet another level. It was no longer enough to strike hard at leaders, nuclear facilities, and military targets, as Israel did in June 2025. This time the objective was regime change— not merely neutralizing a perceived threat, but reshaping the political environment itself”.
Jewish historian and scholar, Gershom Scholem, we know had already predicted that religious Zionism operates as a “militant,” “apocalyptic” and “radical” messianic movement that tries to “force the end” [i.e. Redemption] by demanding the State engage in, for example massive territorial control.
In short, Scholem, widely regarded as a leading expert on Messianic Judaism, was predicting in effect Israel’s turn toward Permanent Security, not as a security measure alone, but as a tool of militant Zionist messianism.
At the present time, by any standards, Iran, America and Israel’s ‘deeper interests’ are about as distant from each other as one can imagine. Both Israel and Iran seek to transform fundamentally the political complexion of the Middle East. All that is in the realm of possibility with talks therefore is short-term, limited measures that might temporarily suit the U.S. and Iran, but almost certainly will not be acceptable to Israel (nor to its lobbyists and mega-donors in the U.S.).
The U.S. desperately needs an exit-ramp — and negotiations would seem to be the normal mechanism for this. But negotiations in the traditional sense would lead effectively to a perceived U.S. surrender, and if protracted, to a catastrophic economic disaster resulting from the consequences of Iranian control of the Hormuz.
Trump today seems torn between the prospect of ‘heavy’ military escalation (advocated by the Israeli-First faction) in the hope of securing an Iranian capitulation, and an extended Hormuz blockade (albeit porous), advocated by Secretary Bessent, speaks to the notion of yet another ‘forever war’. Neither option is without profound consequences.
Iran, on the other hand, has withstood the combined military pressure of the United States and Israel. Whereas Israel has failed to achieve any of its original (28 February) war objectives, and thus seeks to pressure Trump to continue the war — in the “hope” that somehow the Iranian State will fall.
The fundamental problem for Trump in bringing the Iran war to termination (apart from his ego barring him from appearing to be ‘a looser’), is that it is not possible for him — beholden and captive to Israel and the big pro-Zionist donors as he is — to make credible commitments, short of full treaty status, regarding non-aggression against Iran — or sanctions-relief.
And treaty status is not politically realisable at present, given the diversity and nature of the factions who wield control of Congress.
How then might Iran be reassured of an end to conflict and an end to the threats of future wars? Iran might only be reassured if some way were to be found to tie American and Israeli hands in respect to further rounds of war on Iran — although how would Israeli hands be tied? Only (presumably) by cutting financial, munitions and intelligence support for Tel Aviv.
And that would imply firstly, ‘revolution’ in the global U.S.-Israeli structural relationship, and secondly, a different President.
Could an alternative be some sort of Sino-Russian guarantee of direct intervention were there to be further military escalation? Such a prospect would imply a new global concert of powers — an event that would seem premature at this juncture of time with the U.S. engaged in hostilities of various types and on different planes with both China and Russia, which themselves are escalating and not diminishing.
RUSSIA achieved its Strategic Goals: Putin executed his most ‘Genius Plan’ against the WEST and NATO
Dis not “stick” the at the first attempt, so here again.
In the UK currently with the goal of transplant to the US.
Fuck’em!JOURNALISM – DESTROYS CONTROL OF INFORMATION.
————–
TAE IS GATHERING SECRETS/FACTS FOR YOU/THE OBSERVERS TO READ/CHANGE YOUR OPINIONS.
————-Iran Responds To US Peace Proposal
Will not accept President Donald Trump’s planPeace efforts are aimed at a temporary memorandum of understanding to halt the war and allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while they discuss a fuller deal, which would have to address intractable disputes such as Iran’s nuclear program.
———–
The IRGC said it will respond “powerfully and without the slightest hesitation” to any aggression or attack.
————
Peace
Stop the killing
Stop the destruction
Stop killing the golden goose
———-
Trump ignored CIA warnings on Iran
May 10, 2026The US has been dragged into war by Israel despite CIA assessments that Tehran was not building a bomb “The narrative and agenda spun by a foreign government – Israel — won the argument and forced us into this war.” — Former Chief of US Counterintelligence Joe Kent. Washington joined Israel’s war against Iran despite intelligence assessments that the Islamic Republic was not developing nuclear weapons, US former counterterrorism chief, Joe Kent, revealed. Kent, who resigned in protest as head of the US National Counterterrorism Center in March, revealed that Israel dragged Washington into another never-ending conflict that does not serve American interests.
—————–
DID YOU READ MORE? …
————
Dr. Pierre Kory exposes a massive media anomaly. He reveals over 100,000 articles were published globally about Hantavirus in days.He confirms this massive coordination is entirely unnatural.
Why is a minor outbreak suddenly consuming the global media cycle?
————
NOW: Trump NIH Chief Jay Bhattacharya CONFIRMS hantavirus is NOT COVID — meaning no lockdowns and no panicWe wouldn’t have locked down ANYWAY!
“This is not covid, and we don’t want to treat it like covid.”
————–T-corruption hidden in the plain sight.
https://www.unz.com/article/the-everything-everywhere-all-at-once-corruption-story/
You will know if the “outbreak” of ratvirus is “real” (i. e. the psychopaths have a plan) when
the SPANISH PARLIAMENT is suddenly overcome by the deadly
poisoningdisease.Doc D. You make an excellent grasshopper. Now, listen to the ants and
STOP TYPING AND GO SHOPPING.sacrificing one’s ego to preserve one’s family is the least a man can do..
. But I’m disheartened and frustrated now to see that right-wing writers, Trump voters, and Republican politicians who cheered me on when I was investigating potential Biden corruption are now just ignoring the comparably gargantuan scandals of (alleged) corruption we’re witnessing now.
The only “issue” about Michelangelo’s masterpiece is virgin Marry’s youthful appearance? Just from the religious stand point, what happened to fate and all the narrative related to their existence
that was accepted on the face value?
Also, if she would stand up she would be about seven-ish foot tall.
When Michelangelo carves everything looks right and falls into place. Thus no issue.Secrets revealed from the doers. Read it and weep.
May 11, 2026
War On Iran: – Saudis Blame Israel – Neocon Grandee Concedes Defeat
Two remarkable pieces appeared during the last days. They are related to each other as both authors are seasoned right-wing strategist who were deeply involved with the George W. Bush administration and its war on Iraq.The first piece is by Turki Al-Faisal:
He is a grandson of Saudi Arabia’s founder King Abdulaziz and son of King Faisal. He is chairman of the King Faisal Foundation’s Center for Research and Islamic Studies.
From 1979 to 2001, Prince Turki was director general of Al Mukhabarat Al ‘Ammah, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency, resigning from the position on 1 September 2001, ten days before the September 11 attacks in which 15 Saudi nationals hijacked commercial American airliners.
Prince Turki subsequently served as ambassador to the Court of St. James’s and the United States.
In an op-ed published on Saturday in the semi-official Arab News Faisal reveals the major conspiracy behind the U.S. war on Iran.War On Iran: – Saudis Blame Israel – Neocon Grandee Concedes Defeat
————–All nations that depend on energy from the Gulf will have to work out their own arrangements with Iran.
All nations will have to develop alternative sources of energy for their societies.What happened to, what I thought as an agreed upon, notion that D & R are “two cheeks of the same ass”???
New to me, but by all means inform us. What happened?
Carter = war
Reagan = war
Bush = war
Clinton = war
Bush = war
Obama =war
Trump = war
Biden = war
Trump = warFor example
IRAN did the Impossible: For the First Time in 70 years, a U.S. Base was HIT by an Enemy Fighter Jet
New to me, but by all means inform us. What happened?
Widely accepted, “Two cheeks….” quote I borrowed from George Galloway, just as one sample.
Either RIM (or the new handler of the site?) are irritated by my posts.
INSANE Aerial Clash between Russian ‘Su-35’ and French ‘RAFALE’ Fighter Jets SHOCKED the whole WORLD
Just flexing? Or for turning up the insanity dial to 11?
US ballistic missile submarine appears in Mediterranean as tensions rise in Middle East
Appearances of Navy submarines are rare and often designed to send a strategic deterrence message. One of 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, Alaska carries Trident missiles armed with nuclear warheads.
The vessel’s visit is a demonstration of U.S. capability, flexibility and commitment to NATO allies, NAVEUR-AF/6th Fleet said in the statement. The Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines offer the U.S. its “most survivable leg of the nuclear triad,” the Navy said.
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