Debt Rattle May 9 2020


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    Tomb of the diver, Paestum c480 BCE   • Ugly US Jobs Data Hides As Much As It Reveals (R.) • How Australia Got On Top Of COVID19 (SMH) • South Ko
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle May 9 2020]

    V. Arnold

    Tomb of the diver, Paestum c480 BCE

    That is an amazing…fresco(?)…
    The human form is exquisite…


    click the image, lots of info

    V. Arnold

    click the image, lots of info

    I did, thanks, far more details…

    Dr. D

    Kay: Not mentioned but implied, changing the goalposts. The reason for the lockdown was to allow hospital services not to be overwhelmed. That is, to allow herd immunity slowly. Longer, more painful, perhaps, but slowly. That is to say, everyone will get it.

    So if he doesn’t open up, how will everybody get it? If he doesn’t open up, will we stay in martial law and house arrest for the rest of human creation? What’s the exit plan?

    This is aside from quite strong evidence we have a cure in many nations that refuses to be used here. If we have had a cure (since 2005), why do we have a lockdown? In fact, why no arrests? Because they’re lying upon lying upon lying, so we are making pretzel logic admitting one lie while fighting another. Don’t concede any lies.

    So, nice and emotional scaring sounding: What “catastrophic effects”? What “epidemiological boom and bust”? How could that possibly be “endless”? Endless? Like until homo sapiens evolve into a new species? What you’re saying is 100% anti-science, all emotion, while hiding under the color of science. That is, it’s propaganda to promote your personal beliefs. Please don’t. This is how science is discredited and dies. Because of allowing people like this.

    UK To Place All Incoming Travelers Under 14-Day Quarantine (R.)”

    Speaking of fake, illusionary non-lockdowns worldwide. 4 months late. And nobody’s enforcing it. Not really. They can take a trip with Chris Cuomo and Mayor Lightfoot, perhaps to a parade recommended by DeBlasio and Pelosi.

    “Data Reveals A Complex Reality (DW) “

    Pretty sure as above, the data isn’t complex at all. It’s just people lying. Doctors and coroners are in good faith, but they’re not cynical, suspicious people like I am. Then the CDC and NHS takes the good faith numbers and headlines the drama while footnoting the facts. As it’s aggregated, no one can tell, and they won’t release the details. It’s a con game, where you fabricate confidence in a person or organization, then betray it. As if we didn’t know as far back as Viet Nam’s “We’re winning the war” numbers.

    How far off is the data? Hard to tell, but since they’re calling it the “Miracle Cure” in several nations because nobody’s dying of heart disease and influenza now, it’s probably relevant. It seems to have stopped instantly on reaching the long-term average number of daily deaths, which is pretty peculiar, and politicians seem to have anticipated this, which is strange. At the same time it clearly appears to be relevant, as we can show a peppering of under 70, especially health care workers who would not succumb to a seasonal flu.

    In a nation where every member lies every day as a matter of course and truth tellers are relentlessly persecuted and jailed, who can tell anything?

    “The Bailout Miscalculation That Could Crash the Economy (Taibbi)”

    This is very lousy, as if you miss payments – and the government is not only always lying, screws up everything it touches, but ALSO sides against citizens 100% of the time – then the missed payment CAN involve speeding up instant foreclosure and even demand 3 months back pay in cash. Even though the delay was planned, signed, and in good faith. Hey! Is that exactly like HAMP? That got a few hundred thousand people who could have been alright foreclosed on and their houses stolen by Mozillo and Fargo? Yeah…you done trusted the government. Nice knowing you. But you trust them when they say no human to human transmission and come visit my parade.

    But there’s a solution! More government! They’re still 100% employed at 100% pay with half the tax base. Isn’t that sort of like your taxes doubled? Nevermind. We can fix that too! With more government! Maybe we can quadruple the government and have no economy at all! That’s always worked in Cuba, Russia and East Germany. No bad effects at all.

    “My first reaction is: fewer cars!”

    My first reaction is, “Omg, I’m going to get a car so cheap it’s amazing, what car would I like?” Kind of the opposite of when Obama crushed all the cars and hammered the poor by making the cheapest used car prices double. Down at the bottom that was bad indeed and lasted years.

    Our utter incompetence actually helps us,”

    I think this may be in error. I believe we found that the FBI asked it to be closed, and these guys actively stopped it and refused to close just so this could have some banner to proceed. No incompetence, malfeasance, as usual. Every time a crime is committed, it’s always just an “accident” that nobody meant, like 100,000 times in a row, all in the same direction. But why talk? Nobody can be discredited. Nobody goes to jail. And as everybody is a criminal and liar, nothing can get done, nothing works.

    Obama will be implicated.

    I fear this is unavoidable. It 100% had to be in the daily security briefing. Daily. No one would dare otherwise. That’s aside from Strzok saying it was. So we wiretap and arrest opposition candidates now? While the people cheer? Some democracy. As it has been since Kennedy.

    Yaneer Bar-Yam is still high as a kite. The virus is “gone”. Gone as in extinct from Planet Earth? Can you please tell me what science says that is possible at all? No humans talk to any other humans anymore? They don’t go to stores and trade for food? And re-basing all the charts so they optically look similar also isn’t science. It’s propaganda. Sweden, Brazil, any non-U.S. nation is missing. The U.S. locked down earliest, today’s article showed Australia took no political risk because the U.S. already had, and they’d just point to us as is usually the case. We take the risk, they take the coat tails. The cases were all in NYC which did lock down. His case is garbage, emotionally-fabricated nonsense.

    Oh wait: the charts are Haaavard. Explains all. Here’s an expert modeler/programmer on Ferguson:

    I have Reviewed Ferguson’s Code – It’s a Joke

    First, it’s not a model. It’s a cartoon, it’s 1/10th the size of any normal model. Second, it adds so much randomness that if you run it several times, you’ll literally get any result you wish. Then you pick the one you want, big, small, whatever, and say “the model says!” “Experts agree!” But go ahead and trust them when they’ve been 100% wrong for half my life now and no model they’ve run has been correct since I don’t remember when.

    Oh, and they were totally 100% dead-wrong this time too? We’re 25M deaths short? Nah: trust them and their models, it’s a coincidence Harvard — which got this totally, catastrophically wrong — is just putting out data that politically attacks people they don’t like, while leaving out all other data. Totally normal and accepted. Just ask East Anglia.

    Dr. D

    Inventories were overflowing and still are overflowing.
    Second hand cars … new Car …. Hertz rental cars ….. trucks …. RV …. oil …. farm equipment …. etc
    Its world wide. Its not just in the USA

    • Auto Production Collapses By 99% In Mexico and Brazil (R.)

    Auto production in Mexico and Brazil, Latin America’s top producers, plunged by an unprecedented 99% in April as a result of the coronavirus crisis, with the two countries building a total of just 5,569 vehicles.
    In normal times, Mexico and Brazil produce over half a million cars a month combined.

    At last, thing are changing The boys are coming home to mama.

    The USA troops around the world, are in lock down, isolation, forbidden to rotate, packing up and starting to go home.

    The USA can use other weapons, (tariffs, blockades, shunning, jailing snitches, economic wars, IT attacks, drones, surveillance. ) to frighten, control, intimidate the world.

    The military has added Mercenary experts for $15 million to kidnap a leader of another country.
    There are hints and ACCUSATIONS that a new kind of war tool has been developed and used


    “According to the DHS document, along with the 11 active cases there are 23 members of the Secret Service who have recovered from COVID-19 and an additional 60 employees who are self-quarantining,” Yahoo News reports. “No details have been provided about which members of the Secret Service are infected or if any have recently been on detail with the president or vice president.”



    Interesting : Study correlating data from 20 countries indicates vitamin D could be useful for combatting the worst effects of the virus, eg. death!


    VITAMIN D [Part two]

    From the article above : ‘skin pigmentation also reduces natural vitamin D synthesis’.

    I wonder whether this explains, at least in part, the effect of the virus on those of African descent [in the UK], and others such as people from the Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani communities.

    Doc Robinson

    Still too early to tell, but some numbers from yesterday’s Debt Rattle indicate that Sweden’s approach might not result in much economic benefit, compared to neighboring countries having official lockdowns. Sweden’s GDP is forecast to shrink more than Denmark’s.

    Spring 2020 GDP growth forecast for the EU (as of May 06, 2020)

    Finland -6.3%
    Sweden -6.1%
    Denmark -5.9%


    Study on Vit D, which focuses on deficiency.

    Update on Vitamin D and COVID-19


    Well up here in Toronto, we saw snow flurries! Old Man Winter getting in his, hopefully, last kick at the can!

    Then after this polar vortex leaves in 3 or 4 days, maybe I can plant a few seeds?

    I noticed Canada wasn’t one of the countries that has reached and past it’s virus peak.

    We closed our borders way too late to do any good.

    Trudeau was more concerned about hurting China’s feelings than saving lives. He also wanted that Security Seat at the UN too. Sadly nobody is calling him out on this.

    He continues to go to his cottage every weekend, while telling us we can’t.


    Other news

    The two US ex-special forces turn mercenary soldiers captured by Venezuela Monday as they tried to lead a small anti-Maduro invasion force into the country appeared in a Venezuelan court on Friday, alongside some dozen other alleged conspirators and detained mercenaries.

    Luke Alexander Denman, 34, and Airan Berry, 41 have been charged with “terrorism and conspiracy” for the failed raid, which new details say included a total of 17 people coming ashore on fishing boats from a staging ground in neighboring Colombia.

    Venezuelan media also claims that eight among the mercenary force – reportedly mostly made up of Venezuelan defectors – were gunned down when they tried to enter the country.

    Denman and Berry have specifically been charged with “terrorism, conspiracy, illicit trafficking of weapons of war and (criminal) association.”

    Washington appears to have been embarrassed by the whole “rogue” operation, for which Silvercorp has also come under widespread mockery online.

    The US army has since confirmed the men formerly served as members of the Green Berets and had been deployed to Iraq. Venezuelan state officials have claimed the group was going to be paid $212 million to orchestrate the overthrow of Maduro on behalf of opposition leader Juan Guaido and his US and Colombian backers.

    While distancing itself from the fiasco, the State Department has pledged to “use every tool that we have available to try to get them back,” according to recent statements by Mike Pompeo.


    Yesterday, I did a 20 k hike into the mountain.
    I was missing the sight of snow. 🙂
    The first 10 k was uphill all the way.
    Going down, was hard on my toes. My foot kept slipping inside my footwear, and banging in my toes.
    The only other person that went there was with forestry. He was on a snowmobile on 27 Fev 2020.
    He marked three slides. However, there were 10 more slides after he left. Unless there is logging starting this summer, this logging road will stay closed, even to quads.
    I pulled my trail cameras. Got winter activities of bobcats and elk.
    Today, after that workout, I could probably, join the body builders on stage. 🙂


    “Containment Is Possible” graphs are a bit misleading, the USA in red is buried in the middle and the UK is missing. Both nations have plateaued but the USA is reopening which is bound to spike the number of coronavirus infections again. This is a verboten subject but both American political parties’ sole goal is to enrich the wealthy. The lockdown was imposed to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and the elite dying alongside the rift-raff. Corporate media never mentions that hospitals and nursing homes are solely for profit and designed to extract wealth from the patients. Naturally these deregulated businesses didn’t spend any money on PPE for a once a century pandemic or follow safety protocols. Killing elderly, first responders and healthcare workers. Not too different than Boeing killing 346 people earlier.

    The USA and UK governments were dismantled to cut taxes and end regulations. Both are too dysfunctional to deal with the pandemic. The excess deaths are of no matter to the Establishment. No US federal government employees will be hired to trace, contact and quarantine the infected in safe secure facilities. To do this requires taking a fraction of their donors’ wealth. An effective response to the pandemic won’t happen until the herd immunity / war for profit gang are gone and Democracy (government by and for the people) is restored in both nations.

    Nothing shows how dysfunctional the White House is their sidelining of CDC and going ahead with temperature screening at airports to reassure passengers. Except 20 to 50 percent of the infected are shedding coronavirus with no elevated temperature or symptoms. This screening is pointless and will kill people.

    John Day

    @anticlimactic: BINGO! You found my hypothesis all by yourself.
    American vitamin D levels are almost all under the 30-100 normal range, and some are under 10. People’s bones hurt when it’s that low, “osteomalacia”. Black skin and northern climes.
    Hmmm, why does that not happen in nature? Why do all the people in northern climes get lily white skin (or, light, at least)? That’s the vitamin-D hypothesis of why humans lost their pigment as they moved north. It’s obvious why they gained it at the equator. Sunburn.

    . That vitamin-D update is partly good, but the author seems to have not been monitoring vitamin-D levels in the US population.
    My very-well-educated guess is that average is right around 20, deficient. Normal range is 30-100.
    The study had nobody with mid-normal levels in the groups of mild to severe cases of COVID.
    So the author says to make sure not to let your level get up that high, because there is no telling what might befall you.
    I would interpret it differently.

    John Day

    More catching up on the laptop that lets me log in:

    HCQ-based treatments are effective in treating COVID-19, unless started too late.
    Studies, cited in opposition, have been misinterpreted, invalid, or worse.
    HCQ and AZ are some of the most tested and safest prescription drugs.
    Severe COVID-19 frequently causes cardiac effects, including heart arrhythmia. QTc prolonging drugs might amplify this tendency. Millions of people regularly take drugs having strong QTc prolongation effect, and neither FDA nor CDC bother to warn them. HCQ+AZ combination, probably has a mild QTc prolongation effect. Concerns over its negative effects, however minor, can be addressed by respecting contra-indications.
    Effectiveness of HCQ-based treatment for COVID-19 is hampered by conditions that are presented as precautions, delaying the onset of treatment. For examples, some states require that COVID-19 patients be treated with HCQ exclusively in hospital settings.
    The COVID-19 Treatment Panel of NIH evaded disclosure of the massive financial links of its members to Gilead Sciences, the manufacturer of a competing drug remdesivir. Among those who failed to disclose such links are 2 out of 3 of its co-chairs.
    Despite all the attempts by certain authorities to prevent COVID-19 treatment with HCQ and HCQ+AZ, both components are approved by FDA, and doctors can prescribe them for COVID-19.

    Pseudo-Science behind the Assault on Hydroxychloroquine

    ​Professor Nate Hagens gives his Earth Day 2020 lecture on The State Of The Species​.
    I don’t watch videos, but Nate, with background on Wall Street, then defecting to sustainability, and co-editing The Oil Drum, while it existed, is a rare exception. Nate not only holds the big picture in his cranium, but he is a very good painter with words, graphs and images.

    Art Berman, who contributed to The Oil Drum, and also recommends Nate’s lecture says it is
    Game Over For Oil, The Economy Comes Next
    He thoroughly supports the ins and outs of that assertion. Enlightening reading about the inside of the oil and refining businesses.

    Game Over for Oil, The Economy is Next

    John Day

    The Russians have the Low-vitamin-D-lets-coronavirus-kill-you hypothesis laid out here, on Sputnik



    Thanks John Day. There is a lot of info at the link.

    Game Over for Oil, The Economy is Next

    ” The price of oil is too low to justify the cost of extraction even if storage were available.”

    Why is Canada still extracting oil at a loss?

    Somebody should tell Canada to stop extracting and leave the oil in the sand.
    Its simple to do, here is my price. If you don’t want to pay go buy somewhere else.

    HubertRightHandSideCurve said

    There is no enough oil left for air travel for the masses (see Colin Campbell, David Hughes and Art Berman), . The pandemic has made us ceasing that – quietly.

    There is no enough oil left for private-driving for the masses. The pandemic has made us ceasing that seamlessly.

    This far, this pandemic can be considered nothing other than peak oil-disguised!
    I’ve found a better example to describe our situation.
    Its not peak oil.
    Its not a burst bubble.
    Its not a frog in slow boiling water.
    Its not the shit hit the fan.

    Its a game of dodge ball. It hasn’t hit me. I’m still in the game.


    Following up to Dr D’s excellent link on issues with the Imperial College programming model and processes are these two links to a Google software engineer’s review and comments: (worth reading even if you’ve read the second one linked above)

    Absolutely key point from the first article is that the reinsurance industry have their own pandemic models:
    1. They more accurate than the Imperial College model, but they still don’t employ them as they’re not accurate enough
    2. For critical decision making the industry creates two seperate internal models + engages an external model as a control. Y’know.. for control and accuracy!
    3. The re-insurance industry was never consulted around Covid response, despite having strong alternate off-the-shelf pandemic models that could be used as controls

    The tl;dr – the entire Covid response was some ghastly short-cut public sector decision making.

    A secondary point worth noting strongly is that imperial College has refused to release the original model, and Microsoft engineers are frantically rewriting it before release (and the new versions are producing new projections off the same data as they’re released..). Can you imagine how appallingly bad the original model must have been written? And yet huge decisions were made off the back of it.


    >It’s obvious why they gained it at the equator. Sunburn.
    Err, no. Destruction of folic acid = increase of spina bifida
    From sun shining thru skin into surface blood vessels


    But when you parse the actual data, what you find is that these tend to be high-trust, high-education, high-information societies—such as in Scandinavia and East Asia—where official lockdowns haven’t been necessary precisely because a critical mass of people have effectively locked themselves down on their own.

    Ha. For every generalization there are are always exceptions. Koreans are pissed at this new superspreader. I am pissed too. This is my neighborhood. I understand the desire to go out and socialize. I get it. But is it necessary to go to three clubs during a four hour window with close contact with 1500 people? That’s just irresponsible. He infected his coworkers – now they are angry and want to sue him.

    So he has infected 40 people so far. Nice work. One of those is a French guy in the neighborhood who visited the club. I often see him walking the dog in the neighborhood because his dog and my dog are friends. And we ran into him last week on puppy night at the neighborhood rooftop restaurant. Now my wife and daughter have scratchy throats. Great. Just great.

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