Debt Rattle October 1 2020
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Fred Stein Little Italy New York 1943 • US Economy Plunged Over 31% In Q2 (RT) • This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic (Atl.) • J
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle October 1 2020]Education in a social science is ignorance? So David Graeber’s book ” Debt the first 5000 Years”, which relies on anthropological (social science) research, should be tossed in the garbage according to Taleb? And I guess we should stop listening to Steve Keen because, as an Economist (social scientist) he is ignorant! Honestly, sometimes Taleb seems to say things just to grab attention.
Taleb also seems to have an inflated idea of the robustness of the hard sciences. Remember all science, even the stuff that uses fancy measurement equipment, is conducted by flawed imperfect humans prone to seeing what they want to see. “Progress” in scientific understanding is sometimes described as a process in which holders of outdated, inaccurate ideas die off….
Taleb on Graeber’s passing:
David Graeber
He was a real intellectual; very real: not one fake cell in his brain, not one fake bone in his body.
He thought independently.
He was monstrously original.
He had intellectual courage.
The world seems much much smaller today than before Sep 2.
David, RIP
“Federalist co-founder Sean Davis reports that CIA Director Gina Haspel is blocking releasing and declassifying critical documents related to Obama’s FBI surveilling the Trump campaign in 2016”
Well don’t that beat all. Why does the CIA have documents with regards to an FBI investigation anyways?
Masks, mechanically, would be expected to have the most effect on super-spreaders, perhaps reducing them to mundane-spreaders.
Sciences are all OK, as long as they are practiced with honest intent by the scientists. Honest intent holds in mind that models are models, not absolute truth. That does not diminish the usefulness of a model, but defines it with some boundaries. Expectations should be bounded by the inherent limitations of the model. The more complex the issue, such as human political economy, the more limited the utility of the model will be. The real problem is when “SCIENCE” is used as a means to a political (Power-stealing) end.
That’s pretty much the rule these days.
I can tell. I’m an actual scientist… 🙂
You don’t have to listen to me at all, though.I like Taleb but his remark on imagination is wrong. Perhaps in fuller context surrounding the original quote, it makes sense. But, as stated, it’s one of the dumbest remarks on human nature and cognition that I’ve read. But Taleb, as I’ve read him, tends to get high on his own fumes.
” …. the UC Global employee was instructed to travel to London every 15 days in order to collect the hard-drives, passing them to Morales who travelled to the U.S. just as frequently – often with his wife – in order to pass the recordings to contacts within the CIA. ”
“…. to contacts within the CIA.”
WHO are they?
Who has that much power to bury someone in a dungeon for so many years?Trump is fascinating. The lunatic-in-charge accomplishes amazing things despite or because of himself. He has the nation focusing skeptically on how votes are counted. Very unlikely this will produce an honest election but it is a change from the past few decades. Maybe Musk will invent robovoters so we can avoid the contagious polls.
Money kept the nightmare away.
Reality will be a nightmare for untold number of people who are not receiving money.https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-coronavirus-stimulus-democratic-trump-20201001-4ww5csv5q5dtppiinizxl565la-story.html
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are anxious to return to the campaign trail and want to get their messages to voters straight in the home stretch before Election Day on Nov. 3.Despite progress, insiders caution it’s a long shot to expect any important bipartisan compromise so close to a presidential vote.
Underlining the stakes for the American people, airlines went ahead with furloughs of tens of thousands of workers after a provision in a previous stimulus measure expired.
A new measure would likely include a new round of $1,200 checks to taxpayers and some version of the federal weekly emergency unemployment assistance, which was pegged at $600. It would also extend aid to small businesses and airlines.
The two sides are still far apart on how much aid to give state and local governments like New York City and state that are facing catastrophic budget crunches after being slammed by the pandemic.
human nature
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_nature
Human nature is a concept that denotes the fundamental dispositions and characteristics—including ways of thinking, feeling, and acting—that humans are said to have naturally.
Arguments about human nature have been a central focus of philosophy for centuries and the concept continues to provoke lively philosophical debate(What you believe, Trump or Biden or ???, will not change reality.)
The phrases “global warming” or “global climate change” are misdirective. They narrow the focus to a specific problem (CO2)- called out by a species which is currently cutting down mountains to harvest coal, and using farmland to produce ethanol.
The issue is much bigger than climate. Planetary degradation is a better term. The oceans aren’t just warming- they are dying. The biosphere is crashing, not because of climate changes, but because of poisons and habitat destruction. Soil throughout the world is becoming depleted, salted, and lacking in nutrients.
Not addressing these issues will cut our CO2 emissions right quick, I suspect.We will burn the last tree.
We will eat the last fish.
We will kill the last insect.
To get what we wish.And what do we wish?
Well, more humans, of course.
But what is their purpose?
To feel no remorse.World’s most useless debate, showing neither should be anywhere near the Presidency, and changed nobody’s minds.
…Except for this one thing: apparently the only group that changed was Hispanic voters, who thought Trump won at 80% rate. Why, I have no idea, why ask? It’s polling. If so, that’s 8 points or something. It’s not impossible he knew this, but to my mind he was attempting a Biden lash-out mental breakdown and failed. We did essentially prove Biden was a puppet, with earpiece orders, first, we saw it on camera, second, first thing he said on stage was “good luck”. That only makes sense as the handler’s last words to him as he took his podium. Whatever. As if we didn’t know we have no individual President Biden, and that he’s a placeholder that will cease to exist 2 minutes into the Hillary/Harris Presidency. I mean Wallace was really debating Trump, and even then they still want to change the rules. Not like Cheeto is a single guy either, just moreso. He’s a team headed by a narrow group of Military Intel.
Anyway, if no one changed their minds but some slice of this subgroup of Hispanics changed, then…? Doubled in popularity among Hispanics, nearly tripled with Blacks. …Some ‘racist’. But they say Hispanics like the head of the Proud boys, Blacks like Candice Owens, and orthodox Jews like Shapiro are “White Supremacists” and “Nazis” so clearly we’ve long since crossed into reality-optional. Those 6M new black Trump supporters are all racists and supremacists, who need the Great White Karen to teach them better. Ugh.
“the Trump administration is going to release one piece of evidence after another showing that the Democrat party, from Hillary to Obama, and from the FBI to the CIA to the DOJ, and everywhere in between, engaged in a massive, seditious conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2016 election.”
We all know. Nobody cares. They think illegal seditious conspiracy = good, so long as it’s my side right or wrong. They say this openly, every where, every day. “By any means necessary.” i.e. illegally, including love-arson and love-murder. It’s all the side of the angels because the world is ending. We have 7 years left (25 years after they started saying that), we’re all going to die, and all that.
“… And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned around on you–where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? … Yes, I’d give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety’s sake.” — Thomas More
However, they will not give such benefit. There is no law but power. Both as part of their social and race theory, and because it’s “too important” to follow any laws/not murder people/not destroy all (black) people, businesses, things right now. You know: belief in witches and devils you can’t see, but are everywhere. Under every bed, tapping every phone, in every word, thought and deed, controlling everyone you meet. Denying it is just proof you’re compromised and must also be beaten, burned, purified. How often do you deny beating your wife, sir? Have you done it in a boat with a goat?
“56 Million Americans Depended on Food Banks During the Pandemic (MPN)”
What was it, 30 million before then? Georgia showed a bunch never needed it. They said to get assistance, you need to show up and you know, pick up garbage, sign a form or something. 80% refused to do something that simple. They shut them off. Nothing happened; nothing changed. It was immediately not reported in any paper and has never been spoken of again.
But the story brings to mind the 40,000 who die prematurely for every 1% increase in unemployment. And whaddyakowd? That’s with the 30k dead of opioids each year since all jobs in non-blessed insider cities were sent to China. “You don’t have a magic wand” “Those jobs ain’t coming back” – Obama, just before his party lost to the worst candidate in decades.
“just three men — Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and Jeff Bezos — held more wealth than the bottom half of America”
Uh-huh. Their wealth is also fake. The Dow should be 1/3 of what it is — maybe 1/10th in value — and cyclically it will be. Bezos also can’t liquidate a billion in AMZN stock without cutting its price 90% — what the “wealth tax” dummies don’t get. He takes a (mere) million dollar salary instead/because. So if you (i.e. government) stop actively interfering in the market to mis-price things like unprofitable stocks and houses, the whole problem rights itself. Just as it did in 1929. That was the day income disparity moderated: when all the rich guys lost a fortune. Not under a WPA used to prevent the rest of the market mis-pricing from clearing.
Whatever. They do “own” it, even if they can’t access it, and they use the illusion of that wealth to wield undue power, so same thing.
It’s your belief in their fake wealth that gives them power, so why don’t you stop?
In case they didn’t make their point:
A misleading if useful chart:
The US spent about $350 billion dollars on WWII ($4.1 trillion in modern currency). $185 billion of that was US bonds bought by US citizens. One way or another, American citizens invested heavily in their governmental future. WWII being won in our favor, they got to receive the financial benefit of their investments.
The War on Terror has “only” cost $1.6 trillion, but that has been almost entirely financed by debt to foreign nations. I don’t see war bonds in our future. Not any time soon, at least. But rationing is inevitable, and we are a nation that defines almost any struggle we face as a “war”. The rationing may be overt like it was in WWII, or covert as we experience now via inflation.
That $1.6 trillion figure doesn’t include the many trillions of dollars the Pentagon has “lost”. $21 trillion dollars and counting…
The presidential election season is upon us again, and my grouped bcc sends of the news-blog are curtailed again.
This is why I began the blog in spring 2016. I was just not able to send emails out to the usual recipients in the weeks leading up to the Democratic convention.
I was violating hidden algorithms by tarring the DNC and Clinton Mafia with vote rigging. I was de-formatted until a couple of days after the November elections. Then everything worked fine again until Fall 2018, when my sends got blocked again, until a couple of days after the voting, again…
Yesterday, (the morning after the Trump-Biden debate) after sending to about 190 people on the bcc list, I replied to an email from some friends.
Promptly, the mail-server replied that “You have reached a limit for sending mail. Your message was not sent.”
That same reply keeps coming back. I tested again this morning. Gmail says I get 100 sends to individuals, no more. I get frozen out for 24 hours after I exceed that.
I’ll send this out at the 24 hour mark, noon today, and see if it gets through, but that will be it until after the election, and probably until after it is agreed, which may be never. I expect something to go wrong with the blog ( http://www.johndayblog.com ) too, some day, maybe soon.
Maybe the blog will keep working fine, but just not coming up on Google searches. We’ll see.
Do things in your local human world with friends, neighbors, family, vegetables, spiritual community and bicycles.
The communication formats we have become accustomed to are not inherently stable, and are subject to cancellation at any time,
without recourse.
https://www.johndayblog.com/2020/10/e-mail-rationing-season-again.htmlWhere can this honest politician find work in the future? (Warning: Russian news!)
Tulsi Gabbard believes Project Veritas’ ballot-harvesting claims against fellow dem Ilhan Omar, causing left-wing backlash
https://www.rt.com/usa/502033-tulsi-gabbard-project-veritas/Here is the Project Veritas video, with covert video recordings of Somali-American vote-harvesting champions bragging about their vote-harvesting prowess and techniques to a Somali-American from their community. He was working undercover (now blown) for the local police and Project Veritas:
Minneapolis police open a case against vote-harvesting ring, exposed above. (Warning: Russian news again!)
Jeremy Slevin, senior communications director for Omar, weighed in on the debate claiming “the amount of truth to this story is equal to the amount Donald Trump paid in taxes of ten out of the last fifteen years: zero”.
He slammed the Project Veritas investigation, saying that “amplifying a coordinated right-wing campaign to delegitimise a free and fair election this fall undermines our democracy”.
https://sputniknews.com/us/202009291080607934-minneapolis-police-open-probe-into-reports-ilhan-omars-allies-harvested-piles-of-ballots-for-money/The Empire of Uncertainty, Charles Hugh Smith
Anyone claiming they can project the trajectory of the U.S. and global economy is deluding themselves.
Normalcy depends entirely on everyday life being predictable. To be predictable, life must be stable, which means that there is a high level of certainty in every aspect of life.
The world has entered an era of profound uncertainty, an uncertainty that will only increase as self-reinforcing feedbacks strengthen disrupting dynamics and perverse incentives drive unintended consequences.
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct20/empire-uncertainty10-20.htmlHow did this happen? Should I be more or less worried?
MILITARY PERSONNEL OUTNUMBER CIVILIAN SCIENTISTS IN U.S. VACCINE PROGRAM
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/military-personnel-outnumber-civilian-scientists-us-vaccine-programDr. Anthony Fauci says Americans should trust credibility of COVID-19 vaccine process
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/29/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine/“…the Pentagon has “lost”.
I better go check my sofa.We will burn the last tree.
We will eat the last fish.
We will kill the last insect.
To get what we wish.And what do we wish?
Well, more humans, of course.
But how will we function?
We’ll feel no remorse.Better.
@ madamski
I posted this a few hours ago, but it must have fallen behind the filing cabinet, so this is try two.
Yes, Trump IS fascinating. In his own inept way, he is knocking down, institution by institution, the Potemkin Village of American exceptionalism. He yells “Fake news!” and there goes the media as a reliable source of news. He says “We’re taking the oil!” and there goes a key pretext for their endless war on terror. Or my personal favorite:
“I’m not saying the military’s in love with me, the soldiers are, the top people in the Pentagon probably aren’t because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy.”
And the holiest sacred cow, the we have ‘free and fair elections’, the underpinning of our so-called democracy, is now being called into question. No wonder they hate him so much. He’s a one-man wrecking crew, tearing down their carefully crafted illusion of American supremacy and leadership. Our total incompetence in handling the Covid pandemic is only the icing on the cake.
@ Maxwell Quest
Was a time it seemed meaningful for me or someone like Raul to remind people we’re not Trump fans or supporters. That was when there was at least a hypothetical chance the system would allow the DNC to produce a slightly viable alternative.
Now that it’s been reduced to two mentally unstable old goats butting what’s left of their heads, it’s hard not to be a fan if not a supporter. He’s a lousy son of a bitch, Mr. Don-Don, and he’d sell his sister into white slavery if he thought it necessary for him to “win”, but he’s a consistently inconsistent loose cannon, and that does tend to clean the deck.
Money kept the nightmare away.
Reality will be a nightmare for untold number of people who are not receiving money.
Over 830,000 Americans Filed For First-Time Jobless Benefits Last Week
American Airlines and United are calling on the US Government for an additional $25bn or else layoff 32,000
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/house-democrats-pass-22-trillion-virus-relief-bill-crushing-hopes-compromise-stimulus
The bottom line is that unless Senate Republicans agree to state and local bailouts, and they won’t even if Trump demands they do, this likely marks the end of any hopes for a fifth and much needed fiscal stimulus, even as American savings generously built up in the aftermath of the covid lockdowns thanks to trillions in government handouts, are rapidly dwindling.
Here’s the bottom line: unless we have another real crash – we are talking down more than 20% from here – nothing will change, and no bill will be passed in the immediate and not so immediate future.The Washington Post though the CDC published a graph of predicted and observed deaths in the USA from January 2017 through September 2020.
https://palomaimages.washingtonpost.com/pr2/3f3b1cec6f438e6a013422d8833dd844-ScreenShot2020-10-01at3_tstmp_1601579392-914-384-70-8.jpgDeaths peak in each New Year at around 60,000 a week except higher in 2017 and 2018 and a noticeable surge this year in the second quarter due to COVID-19 when it peaked near 82,000. The swamping of NY State hospitals and 20,000 excess deaths a week was real although declining since then and almost back to predicted. There likely will be a third peak with schools reopening and winter coming. But this is a guess. Universal testing and public health bubbles have not been mandated for schools or work in the USA. As long as work at home continues for 61 million Americans, hospitals likely will not be overwhelmed. But the US economy will remain depressed, the virus will become endemic, and the unrest will continue. Super-spreader events need to be outlawed, universal daily antigen testing implemented, and public health personnel hired to maintain the bubbles and to contact trace and isolate spreaders.
The future is very uncertain. Donald Trump will remain in the White House because he knows he won the November election. The Western Global Oligarchs have not given up on retaking Russia. NATO conducts war exercises in Poland. Globalist control of the White House will never permanently be given up. Corporate Oligarchs will also never voluntarily fund public health for Deplorables. Profit outweighs human life.
Today reminds me of “The Deer Hunter”. A movie about war and the lost industrial America. Russian Roulette is the film’s metaphor for combat.
This is what Americans are facing without a public health system and a functional national government. Losers do not need to become ill for the long haul or die.
Ilargi:
Off topic perhaps but you should read this Plain English explanation (by an MD) of why the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test is worse than worthless.
“The PCR test is best utilized as a diagnostic test to confirm the diagnosis of an infection based on clinical signs and symptoms. It certainly should not be used as a screening test when there is low prevalence of disease and should NEVER be used as the sole determinant in the diagnosis of a case.”
The only thing the test is good at is keeping a clueless population dependent on the “experts.
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