The Virus is a Time Machine
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Heinrich Hofmann Christ and the Rich Young Man 1889 Around mid-January I started including coronavirus news in the daily Automatic Earth “Debt
[See the full post at: The Virus is a Time Machine]Intended or unintended outcome
Testing the Response system and fine tuning.
Convirus response.
TPvirus
Panicvirus
LiablevirusDr. D,
Hatchett has it about right when he says “…”because of the combination of infectiousness, and a lethality that appears to be many-fold higher than the flu.”” This comment and the conditional phrases it contains would be true for any disease including flu.
Except where are the numbers that show the “infectiousness” is “many-fold higher than the flu.”????The risk response I sometimes think of is climate change and plastic pollution, loss of species. All of these things have the potential to wipe out many humans along with other life forms. Yet that does not lead to the tough measures happening for this virus. International travel is not being cancelled, people are not discouraged by politicians from going on cruises (in Canada this is happening to avoid getting the virus though). Draconian anti-pollution measures are not happening, no one is stopping production of plastic immediately (on the contrary we are worried about ensuring our supply of stuff from China). I think that there should be a greater societal response to these and other similarly significant risks. The virus is showing us that it can be done.
The numbers of coronavirus in Canada and US will explode as more test kits become available.
In Canada, the health officials have only allowed people who travelled to eight countries and are ill to be tested.
Only now are they admitting they “may” need to start testing for community spread. But it is just talk for now.
Most Canadians think they can just walk into a hospital and get results in 1 hour, if they want, thanks to the media spread gov propaganda.
In Canada the media doesn’t bite the government hand that feeds them.
A contagion is very much the interplay between the pathogen and its host over time. Genetics defines the infectiveness and lethality. The environment mitigates or enhances both. Humans are unique in that they have science to understand disease transmission. This is how seven billion of one species can live on a single planet in the middle of nowhere. The other reason is humans live in societies and culture that are adaptive and cooperative.
On the Diamond Princess in a population of 3700 there were 696 confirmed cases, 410 were patients with no symptoms, and 7 deaths so far. This is an 18% infection rate in an attempted quarantine and a 0.19% death rate. What is unusual is 59% infected who had no symptoms, went undetected, and passed the virus throughout the ship. This plus the lethality to the elderly, explain why cruise ships and nursing homes are hit particularly hard. The difference between Italy and South Korea could be explained by the different lethality of the strains of the virus. On the other hand, when healthcare in the West is overwhelmed it is just as bad as Iran which is a theocracy and under sanctions.
The incompetence and lack of response in the USA is due to a society that has been commoditized. Wealth of the rich won’t be used to keep the old and unproductive alive. Preparing thousands more ICU beds and ventilators cuts into quarterly bonuses. Profit is all that matters.
This pandemic is a “Killer Cold” aided and abetted by greed and corruption.
The numbers seem to be all over the place. Germany has more than 1000 cases, but not a single death. Yet the first African fatality was a German in Egypt.
In most countries the virus seems to affect men more than women. But in Korea 63% of the cases have been women, with women in their 20s seeing a higher infection rate than other age groups:
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/03/197_285817.htmlAlthough I do not believe the official Chinese statistics, air pollution level in Wuhan have crept back up, and they seem to have shut many of the makeshift hospitals. So the measures they have taken have indeed brought down the R0.
The superspreaders who ignite the clusters seem to be the danger.
Great points all. Dr., yes, I’m seeing all kinds of strange things now as brains shut off. The 40% hospital vacancy rate was one of them. That it’s more contagious than flu (when Corona by definition IS the flu, a longstanding common strain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus ) is another one. They can say a lot of things, that it’s more serious, more deadly, sure, but since it has the same basis, it’s worse? And if it isn’t more dangerous, why would we care HOW contagious it is? Or even now, actually, since we’re all going to get it. That’s why they keep showing the “infected” charts, which are hyper-dramatic, instead of the “recovery” charts, which are 99 – 44/100% safe.
Keeping sense, Martensen points out that at the expense of slowing via grave quarantine, you can spread the impact on the health system over time. Which is indeed an excellent and advisable point, almost certainly worth the effort. He does miss by saying outside China we “prioritized GDP and the economy” – that’s an opinion. In my mind, “t’is not done”, and why? Because in the West we prioritize FREEDOM, and wouldn’t put on marital law, welding apartment doors shut, and shooting dissidents in the street, no matter WHAT happens. And I hope we agree on that. — Death is the least thing to be feared. The economy is a second, which as a few days ago ALLOWS us the prosperity to do anything at all medically vs living in caves. Like masks, ventilators, etc. Sure we like toys, but that’s not the whole point.
Yes, this shows that we CAN do something, and since it’s 100% all the same people, shows that they DID NOT BELIEVE a single thing they were saying about CO2 Global Warming in the last 20 years. All bulls—t for taxes, money, and power, which you could tell from them all flying private jets between 5,000’sq houses bought at sea level, Presidents included, or especially.
And it strikes me people may be thinking I’ve been a denier or something. No, what part of “a million people will die” would that be? And I’m guessing a million died ALREADY in Wuhan, and expect 1M more in larger China? But now I’m not alarmist enough, I bet — always out of fashion. The difference is, I can point out that +1M have ALREADY died from time to time and it ALREADY didn’t turn the dial at all, a very grounded opinion. Even Spanish Flu with 10% death rate barely mattered.
And I expect the death rate is 0.1% or so, which is probably wildly higher than the flu, way WAY lower than their 3% rates, yet 0.1% = 80M people. The Diamond Princess is going to be predominantly elderly which have a 15x higher death rate, but even so that would be 5M. That’s not nothing, and we still have the larger problem of supply chains and re-localization. Although that ultimately may be healthy for us, any change that moves too fast is dangerous. This is the plan St. Greta was proposing, voluntarily, and now you can see how many people just the change alone would kill, lacking any virus. And she wanted to shut off all energy use as well. Don’t get your world advice from 15-year-old mentally ill dropouts I guess.
So more generally, what do you all want out of this? Martial law and total government control with mandatory testing and prison-enforced vaccinations? You know, in exclusive service to keep the few over 70 alive, who are a net draw on their children? Or freedom for them and your threescore and ten? What kind of world are you building, do you hope to see? Hiding in packed flats behind a toilet paper fortress, or in the rural distance of your neighbors, poorer and somewhat solitary?
Leg two here, markets down 1,200 as the cycles charts said. Got to get under 20k minimum, and we still have three weeks to April. Unexpected the oil prices, I appreciate that. Remember no cycle can end without a blowoff top.
Assuming that the Diamond Princess population was fully tested, the fatality rate is about 1% of those who contracted the virus. Not 0.18% (you can’t include cases that weren’t cases). If there are still unresolved cases (I don’t know), then the fatality rate may increase.
There was a very recent study using the Diamond Princess data to estimate the infection fatality rate or IFR (deaths among all those who contracted the virus). With such limited data, the errors are high but the IFR was estimated at 0.5% (in a range of 0.2% to 1.2%). Currently, the fatality rate of all resolved (those cases which resulted in recovery or death) known cases worldwide is 5%-6%.
“The greatest shortcoming of the human species is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Dr, Albert Bartlett (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_VpyoAXpA8)
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