DisinterestedObserver
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boscohorowitz Yes of course he has the option of taking the road of ‘up and saying’. But if he is fired he loses the ability to try and keep the train on the tracks. So he is being ‘political’ and trying to find a way to get the message across another way. Sub-optimal in some ways, but I am not aware of anyone else in the US of his stature who could take his place and do a better job. So I think we want him to continue.
VietnamVet Dr Fauci’s fatality rate is not 0.2 to 0.1. He absolutely never said that. One can read all of his statements and never find that. He merely said that it was substantially under 1%. As he is in a position to know the results of research before publication he likely knew that the Lancet medical journal was getting ready to publish the actual number. 0.66% IS substantially under 1% and is many times higher than the worst flu. So that is the fundamental rate. And as you point out there are a host of additional factors which can make it much worse.
According the the Lancet medical journal info from today, when taking into account the large number of asymptomatic infections, the actual death rate is 0.66%. I expect that Dr Fauci already knew that information being in his position. This means that Covid 19 is 6-7 times more lethal than one of the worst flus (most flu’s are not 0.1% lethal but as low as 0.025%). Dr. Fauci said he expected from 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. So given those numbers we do not end up with 200 million infected as you indicated but rather about 1/6th to 1/7th of that for 100,000 deaths. Round it off to 30 million infections for 100,000 deaths.
I think it wise to keep in mind that Dr. Fauci is trying to manage this situation and keep our efforts to deal with the epidemic functioning in the face of extreme difficulties. He cannot just up and say Trump is completely wrong or lying as he is most of the time. He gets fired. He has to let people know the situation sort of obliquely. When Trump is standing behind him and Dr Fauci says something which is out of phase with what Trump has just said this means that he is trying to communicate a message that what you just heard from Trump is wrong. Then one has to read behind the lines a bit and do some research to figure out what the real story is. The situation is a mess.
