The IMF plans to dump Greece

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July 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm #4786

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July 22, 2012 at 7:07 pm #4788

FrankRichards

Everybody likes their summer vacations. Which I suspect is why crises have a habit of blowing up in August. Not just the .01%, but the 5%, really wanted not to worry about this till September.

I’ll bet a beer they manage to push the explosion off until October. I can’t see how they gat past October, but they’ve done it so many times in the last 5 years that I’m no longer willing to call even a year for the next big crunch.

July 22, 2012 at 10:14 pm #4792

TheTrivium4TW

Hi Ilargi,

Thanks for sharing such breaking news with us. I guess they transferred the debt away from their key Big Finance Capital interests (bankster offloaded debt onto the public and called it a “bailout for Greece”) so it is time to throw the Greek proletariat under the bus – and surely run over them repeatedly until there is no longer a “bump in the road,” as it were.

More debt receipts “money” for bailed out criminal international cartel banksters means more debt + interest paid to the very predatory institutions that we bailed out.

I would not believe this simple con game could be so effective if I were not watching it play out before my very eyes.

I took the liberty of modifying and Upton Sinclair quote in order to boil down the to its essence the psychological trait being most exploited by these Bernie Madoff, Ken Lay type criminals…

“It is difficult to get a person to understand something, when his comfort level depends upon his not understanding it.”

The cost of believing reality is simply still too high for most people, so the fraud will continue, unabated, until the cost of reality is perceived to be too high to ignore.

These criminals are Econ 101 application geniuses…

July 22, 2012 at 11:34 pm #4796

Boris

Greece exits, then King Obama makes a deal.

King Obama sends $25,000,000,000 in humanitarian aid into Greece each year from now on, in exchange Greece leases two Air Force bases and two Navy piers.

King Obama uses the crisis as a campaign photo ops and is crowned Most Highest Holiness Above the Pope the week before the election.

July 23, 2012 at 1:14 am #4798

davefairtex

Awesome find. And totally believable. Mish picked up the story from here and went with it.

Armstrong’s upcoming big turning point date is labor day weekend.

If this is believed by the Greek public, a Greek bank run seems quite likely, which should force the hand of everyone involved. That’s the awesome thing about our banking system; at the end of the day, when confidence snaps, the public really does have the last word. No elections required.

Might there be capital controls in europe’s near term future?

July 23, 2012 at 1:18 am #4799

Nicole Foss

Yes, capital controls are coming. See my take on the issue here:

http://theautomaticearth.org/Finance/capital-flight-capital-controls-capital-panic.html

July 23, 2012 at 1:23 am #4800

Raúl Ilargi Meijer

“Awesome find. And totally believable. Mish saw the same thing, likely in parallel.”

Mish saw my article, and thanked me both in his piece and by private email.

“That’s the awesome thing about our banking system; at the end of the day, when confidence snaps, the public really does have the last word.”

Let’s try and get a life, shall we? As long as the public believes that sort of baloney, grand theft auto can continue.

July 23, 2012 at 2:28 am #4801

ashvin

Ilargi wrote: The article may trump any such intentions. Some things only work in secret, and once Pandora’s box is open, they no longer do.

This is a good point. Perhaps the article is just a float to put a lot of pressure on the new Greek government, trying to force them to stick to the original memorandum terms. It seems odd that they would announce intentions to excommunicate Greece a month or two in advance. Either that or the article leaked their true intentions, and now they will have to revise their plans. Or… they figured it would be a more peaceful transition doing it this way… which I highly doubt.

Regardless, it doesn’t reflect well on state of finances and political brinksmanship in the Eurozone right now. They are truly getting desperate.

July 23, 2012 at 4:03 am #4803

timekeeper

Here’s another article using google translation:

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Fwirtschaft%2Funternehmen%2Feuro-krise-iwf-will-griechenland-hilfen-stoppen-a-845718.html

Also one of the side bars:

What would be a disaster in Greece?
For the euro area, the consequences would be profound: the creditors would have to waive all or part of their money. The European Central Bank would need some heavy losses on government bonds. The same applies to commercial banks or insurance companies that have invested in Greek government bonds. That would strain their capital. However, the big banks have already written off their papers abroad to some extent.

More controversial are the consequences for Greece: Some economists think a bust for the best option. Because the debt burden of the country would be diminished, reduced the interest burden of the budget would, and should decrease the repayment obligations. As a final solution to the debt crisis is by no means a disaster, as the Greeks would have to adapt their current spending their revenues anyway. Otherwise, they continue to accumulate debt. The vicious cycle would be broken. In addition, Greek banks were sitting at a bankruptcy on debts. The banking system in the country could collapse.

July 23, 2012 at 7:57 am #4805

Viscount St. Albans

Ilargi,

How about an update on the 91-day trailing Growth Index of the Consumer Metrics Institute…..

Back in the fall of 2010, you seemed quite certain that spelled imminent doom.

You even posted some interesting graphs with GDP numbers falling off steep cliffs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of 2010.
How did that turn out? It seemed right as rain to make such claims back then. All the data supported those notions….did it not?
And yet, history proves otherwise
GDP
2nd Quarter 2010 = 3.8%
3rd Quarter 2010 = 2.5%
4th Quarter 2010 = 2.3%

How did the S&P fare over that time period ?

June 30th 2010 ~ 1040
December 31 2010 ~ 1257

If my math serves me correctly, that’s a roughly 20% gain…..And what did that chart you highlighted in September 2010 show?

What was the # again? Implying something like 800 or so on the old SPX……
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/09/september-10-2010-no-economic-growth.html

And yet, we’ve never heard a mea culpa. 2 years later and no explanation for what went wrong. Heck, at least update us on that old Growth Index of the Consumer Metrics Institute….you seemed quite certain about it back then. Short memories…..Can’t you align its performance relative to reality….just so we can all make our judgements? It’s what an honest broker would do, after all.

July 23, 2012 at 8:14 am #4806

Viscount St. Albans

And, if you could:

Is 2 years short-term, medium-term, or long term?

It would help if one defined one’s terms. Wiggle room is useful, but not terribly honest.

July 23, 2012 at 9:44 am #4807

davefairtex

illargi -

Let’s try and get a life, shall we? As long as the public believes that sort of baloney, grand theft auto can continue.

Hmm, that’s the ever popular argumentum ad hominem. Because you claim I have no life, whatever you say next is therefore proven true. Hard to argue with that one. Futile even.

Well I stand by what I said. Your original post was awesome.

July 23, 2012 at 10:53 am #4808

davefairtex

stoneleigh -

Agree wholeheartedly with your article on capital controls. Tied together with the one about 21 trillion offshore, one can imagine all that paper sloshing around the globe trying desperately to find a safe place to hide before the gate comes down.

It was really good to re-read your article. I’m getting a more complete internal picture of a system of extreme financial repression put in place as a result of a massive loss of confidence. I should re-read it every month as events develop!

July 23, 2012 at 12:15 pm #4810

skipbreakfast

Viscount St Albans — why so angry? Are you willing to tell us? Is it because you hoped TAE would lead you to incredible returns on your investments but instead you haven’t made any money in your FX trading account? I am curious — if you’re willing to divulge, please do!

July 23, 2012 at 12:29 pm #4811

skipbreakfast

davefairtex… I applaud your poise and decorum! I suppose there’s some room–no, actually a great NEED–for a curmudgeon in the collapse-nik blogosphere to keep us sharp and on track. Ilargi might be our guy! ;-) I have even seen a photo that proves he might be an ogre in human disguise!

But if you want to read another curmudgeon who regularly spanks his readers, check out Garth Turner’s Greater Fool blog–another Canadian writer who has been promising his countrymen a rather serious real estate correction for several years, despite much criticism. Oh, and given some recent Canadian market data, it seems Turner is finally being proven very right (unfortunately, Turner is also a “financial advisor” who doesn’t think the economic system itself can collapse despite yet another major nation-wide real estate meltdown). Now, I only refer you to the unctuous Turner for his bracingly refreshing and downright stinging barbs…a few folks out there should man-up just as you have done dave and take the barbs for what they are–a wake-up call which some need more than others!

July 23, 2012 at 1:17 pm #4812

Raúl Ilargi Meijer

I wouldn’t call that an ad hominem Dave, and I’m sorry you make it that. It’s simply very much not true that the public have the ultimate choice, and we shouldn’t be suggesting that here.

July 23, 2012 at 1:31 pm #4813

Raúl Ilargi Meijer

In general, when Nicole says she’ll be surprised if something doesn’t happen, that means she’s surprised if it does. It doesn’t mean that she’s made a prediction and has been wrong. It means she’s surprised. That’s what she literally wrote.

I once said people would be lucky to recognize their hometown by Christmas. That doesn’t mean I’m wrong when some still do, it means they’re lucky. That’s what I literally wrote.

That’s not a cop out, we simply choose our words carefully, because we know predicting fixed dates for events to happen is useless.

If people take these things to be fixed predictions regardless, they simply don’t read our words as carefully as we choose them. And that is important. I write what I write, not what any number of people think I do, who might all have different interpretations depending on the care they read with.

We point out trends and risks, not dates.

The CMI series I did with Doug Short and Rick Davis showed through time that the data were not as strong as we at one point all thought they MIGHT be. That caveat was always very much a part of that series. Which then fizzled out. I’m sure most people have understood that. Sorry to see you did not.

July 23, 2012 at 4:00 pm #4814

Anonymous

“It seems far more likely that getting rid of Greece will be merely the first step in dissolving the entire eurozone.”

I hail this.

I, simply, can’t wait to see this Imperial project find its place in “garbage of history”.

July 23, 2012 at 7:38 pm #4815

jal

There are 100,000 very wealthy people who have a lot to lose with the crash of the markets and the destruction of the financial system.

Since + 60% of N. Americans are one paycheck away from telling their lenders that they can no longer keep sending them money so that they can continue to enjoy their unproductive lifestyle,

Since the majority of the club med people are in the process of letting the banks eat their bad loans

Since a 12% drop in the Spanish market must really really hurt those who were leveraged since they must take that 12% drop a multiple of time

Losing the income to put food on the table is disastrous but the mental shock of losing your “wealth and power” is probably too much for the pampered families of the “rentiers class”to face reality. (Few people have humility)

It therefore, appears that the truth is coming out …

“You cannot squeeze blood out of a stone”

Soon …. stones will be discovered to exist outside of club med.

July 23, 2012 at 8:31 pm #4816

davefairtex

illargi -

“I wouldn’t call that an ad hominem Dave, and I’m sorry you make it that.”

That’s great, I guess I made a mistake. I’m glad you weren’t intending on insulting me personally immediately prior to countering what I had to say. I was surprised you were apparently engaging in such tactics because you are a very articulate and intelligent person and appear fully capable of defending your point of view on its merits alone.

I did have a reason for my faulty assumption though. Google the phrase “get a life urban dictionary” and you will see why I assumed you were engaging in an ad hominem attack. Given what you just said, however, I know now that you didn’t mean it in the way its commonly used.

Here’s the top entry in the list.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Get%20a%20Life

“It’s simply very much not true that the public have the ultimate choice, and we shouldn’t be suggesting that here.”

Perhaps we just have a misunderstanding here. For me this depends on the situation. If a popular run on the national banks of any of these countries occurs, I feel it is likely to be a decisive action forcing the hand of all the parties involved. This is the very thing the monetary authorities are the most frightened of. It is one of the founding principles of central banking – avoid bank runs.

When I was talking about the people having power, it was this to which I was referring – the power to withdraw their deposits from the system. If you disagree, I’d like to know more detail about why this is, since I often enjoy reading your perspective on these things.

July 23, 2012 at 8:41 pm #4817

Raúl Ilargi Meijer

“When I was talking about the people having power, it was this to which I was referring – the power to withdraw their deposits from the system. If you disagree, I’d like to know more detail about why this is, since I often enjoy reading your perspective on these things.”

There is no such power, since there are no deposits to be withdrawn. The threat of a bank run equals a bank holiday. Doors closed, ATMs empty.

July 23, 2012 at 9:03 pm #4818

davefairtex

illargi -

You make a great point – only a small fraction of deposits will be successfully withdrawn, the ATMs will be emptied, and then the bank holiday declared. All the people can’t really withdraw all their deposits. I stand corrected.

But by trying to withdraw their cash, “the people” through their action will cause to be revealed the system’s current condition. The bank holiday is usually the last step prior to some major change event occurring – currency devaluation, establishment of deposit insurance, gold seizure, financial repression, etc.

Until the bank run, the system can engage in “pretend” strategies centered around retaining popular confidence on all those “excess claims to real wealth” as long as nobody challenges it. However the bank holiday is the last refuge of the system. Reopening the banks absent major change will simply lead to a continuing bank run, because nothing has been done to restore confidence in the system.

That’s my sense anyway.

Hmm after re-reading what I wrote, I realize I’m NOT saying that the people have some magical power to fix everything. Just that they can, through their actions, expose the latent fraud in the system without the fuss of elections, investigations, and so on. After all, that’s how Madoff failed; withdrawls. Not the SEC, or the DOJ. It was normal people withdrawing money. Ponzi systems can’t handle too many withdrawls or else they implode.

Often just writing this stuff down helps clarify it in my own mind. That’s why I like the process.

July 23, 2012 at 9:44 pm #4819

davefairtex

skipbreakfast -

Thanks for the kind words! I really prefer talking things out to see where the truth really lies. Light vs heat and all that. But sometimes I can’t resist the snarky line too. Every now and then. I definitely understand the impulse. :)

Asimov had a character of his use a line I really liked: “violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.” I feel that is true for speech as well as actions. Like most such things, perhaps its not a rule to be slavishly followed, but an ideal to strive for.

July 23, 2012 at 10:07 pm #4820

ashvin

Dave,

I think we should also remember that banks runs in Greece, or the EZ periphery in general, are perhaps the most well planned for contingency in this whole global financial mess. It had to happen eventually, and, now, it very much seems like the relevant central authorities want it to happen, because the Greek economy has become such dead weight (and Spain is catching up quickly). No doubt there will be unintended consequences, but I’m sure the banksters and their cronies have a million and one different measures in place to deal with it, ranging from media propaganda to capital controls and police/military repression. As always, the masses will take the brunt of the blow for now.

davefairtex post=4484 wrote: skipbreakfast -

Asimov had a character of his use a line I really liked: “violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.” I feel that is true for speech as well as actions. Like most such things, perhaps its not a rule to be slavishly followed, but an ideal to strive for.

I’ve been on quite a few forums where the “regulars” acted exactly opposite of that principle, and that’s why I’m glad we have regulars like you here on TAE. Other than few obvious trolls, people are open-minded and civil and strive for understanding, rather than some ratification of their online ego/pride.

July 24, 2012 at 12:04 am #4821

Otto Matic

“..There is no such power, since there are no deposits to be withdrawn. The threat of a bank run equals a bank holiday. Doors closed, ATMs empty.”

Are ‘capital controls’ a moot point then if there is no there=there?

This Is The Government: Your Legal Right To Redeem Your Money Market Account Has Been Denied – sequel

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/government-your-legal-right-redeem-your-money-market-account-has-been-denied-sequel

And this:

“…The New York Fed has introduced a framework to give banks the right to suspend account withdrawals at will to defend against financial panic.

…central planners have proposed new contigency plans to prevent the Great Depression style bank runs that are hitting Europe from spreading to America.

Their solution is the creation of a framework that consists of “capital controls” which allow financial institutions that find themselves in hot water to limit or outright suspend customer account withdrawals…”

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/07/20/big-fail-fed-proposal-banks-seize-money-149701/

July 24, 2012 at 12:10 am #4822

davefairtex

ash -

Thanks for your kind words too!

I agree the planning for bank runs in the periphery have most likely been finely tuned over the past two years. However, executing these contingency plans are not “fantastic outcomes” for the system. They’re simply stop-loss measures – can-kicking measures, if you will, with an uncertain ability to actually contain the damage. And even if they do contain it to just one country, its not a victory by any stretch of the imagination. A number of banks will have failed across the zone, leverage levels will have increased, and the “pretend” system will be that much more fragile. Perhaps – just perhaps – they’ll be forced to consider actually resolving some of these banks. I think that would be a good thing.

As evidence: during the Irish banking troubles, no losses were permitted for bank bondholders. Now in Spain, the ECB is openly talking about senior debt being given a haircut. The money just isn’t there for holding the creditors harmless any longer. That has to be progress! Maybe its not the hoped-for endpoint, but its progress!

My thesis was, people’s collective action has real power in the banking system. As a thought experiment – if a Spanish bank run results in a eurozone exit, and that results in a euro banking crisis, thats a bit more effective of a “protest action” than a march, or an election where a new batch of cronies get put in power and execute the same policies where the usual bankers keep their jobs after the usual taxpayer funded bailouts are paid for with austerity.

Imagine if everyone on a protest march were to instead all walk quietly to their bank branches and each withdraw 1000E in cash – more effective? I think so. Just having the lines outside the banks would strike terror into the hearts of the bankers.

What happens after, well that’s always the question. My only point was to say people had the power to bring about change outside the usual electoral or violent protest options. It sure beats throwing rocks at policemen. Talk about bringing a knife to a gunfight! Fight the enemy on ground where you are strong, not on ground where he is. (Not suggesting you were advocating the contrary, I was just musing to myself)

July 24, 2012 at 4:46 am #4825

ashvin

Dave,

I think it all depends on how much control you think the Eurocrats and their corporate masters have here, and what kind of plans they come up with. We are all well aware of the phrase “crisis should be used as an opportunity”, and we have seen how that has played out for the last few years. If letting Greece default at the “right time”, i.e. after they pillaged and looted the country, was always a part of their plan, then it’s hard to see how that is a positive thing for the Greeks or anyone else.

I do see your point, though, and it is one I have also made in slightly different ways. There are ways in which the natural progression of things here are opening up opportunities for the people, either through financial or social or political channels. But, ultimately, I think it will be the mass strikes and civil disobedience that produces the best results for them, rather than acute, panicked episodes of financial breakdown that are largely out of their control and will catch a lot of people off guard. You are right that consumers refusing to consume is a great way to threaten the system, but that’s not really what’s happening over there. It’s consumers/depositors scrambling to salvage what little savings they have left before it vanishes into a black hole.

July 24, 2012 at 6:54 am #4829

pipefit

V St. Albans said,
“You even posted some interesting graphs with GDP numbers falling off steep cliffs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of 2010.
How did that turn out? It seemed right as rain to make such claims back then. All the data supported those notions….did it not?
And yet, history proves otherwise
GDP
2nd Quarter 2010 = 3.8%
3rd Quarter 2010 = 2.5%
4th Quarter 2010 = 2.3%”

Actually, since TPTB are under counting inflation by 5%/yr or more, we really are setting ourselves up for a hyperinflationary crash, and the economy is contracting in real terms. Not sure about 2010, but I think the buck comes unglued in 2013.

If you do your own grocery shopping, you can clearly see that inflation is really taking off, and the great 2012 drought hasn’t even figured into retail prices yet. We’ll probably have 20% inflation in 2013, and maybe 5% nominal growth, perhaps 10%. But even with the latter, that is a real contraction of 10% in the economy.

July 24, 2012 at 6:55 am #4830

Otto Matic

After studying two articles on ‘capital controls’ a la U.S. and how the Fed is considering giving banks the discretion to simply deny a bank account holder the ability to withdraw their money from their account at will, you know, to stop bank runs and such, it occurred to me that the whole ‘capital controls’ a la U.S is just another diversion, another hustle by the Owners and their organ grinder banking monkeys.

Since there is no money left in any of the TBTF banks, it’s a NO RESERVE banking model at this point, what is there to have a run on?

Well, isn’t that the point the Sheeple should never be allowed to realize?

Their ‘money’, savings, pensions are all gone, gone, gone.

Why not float a faux issue to distract the public’s tiny rodent like attention span.

Launch an election year fake issue, ‘capital controls’, should we or shouldn’t we. Demos & Repugs, start your engines.

When the real issue is, does your money even exist in the bank in the first place?

Setting the precedent that banks can dole out your savings to you at their discretion to safe guard ‘national financial security’ is important to kicking the can down the road, and further strengthens and validates the two-bit fascist banana kleptocracy Ah-merika has become.

Restricting bank withdrawals to a small manageable weekly amount over the entire depositor base of a TBTF effectively HIDES the fact the banks are broke in the broader sense from Duh-public. Welcome to Skinner Box finance for rodent citizen/consumers.

Almost everyone follow the meltdown for the past four years has been surprised at TPTB pulling one can kicking rabbit out of their asshat after another.

The willfully ignorant uber self-possessed assclowns of the U.S. still have no clue their banks are COMPLETELY broke.

So postpone the day of reckoning for the Rubes, YET AGAIN, with the mis-direction of ‘capital controls’.

As long as an amount close enough to meet their weekly bills is forth coming, ALL IS WELL, nothing to see here.

It’s all Good in the land of the brave and home of the free.

July 24, 2012 at 7:19 am #4831

bluebird

Otto Matic said “Restricting bank withdrawals to a small manageable weekly amount over the entire depositor base of a TBTF effectively HIDES the fact the banks are broke in the broader sense from Duh-public.”

I fully expect the banksters to limit withdrawals for yet another reason…so that the depositors don’t go after the banksters with guns and ropes.

The people believe their money is insured at the banks, and will expect to withdraw it, at some point. If told there is a global crisis, a lot of people will take whatever they can get, and wait patiently until the next withdrawal amount.

July 24, 2012 at 9:58 am #4832

davefairtex

ash -

Yes, you got it – consumers deliberately refusing to consume. That’s what I meant. Consumers have a great deal of power, should they choose to use it. And you are right, that’s not what is happening today. People are just acting in various stages of panic.

otto-matic -

If you carefully read your savings account agreement with your banking institution, you will note that the bank has reserved the right to not give you your money back for anywhere from 30-90 days under some circumstances. I think mine [US Bank] said 60 days, if memory serves. No need for Fed involvement at all.

From all I’ve been able to find out, checking accounts are demand deposits (as in I’m demanding my money, so give it to me) and for that guarantee of instant gratification you don’t earn any interest.

July 24, 2012 at 8:14 pm #4833

bluebird

Davefairtex said “From all I’ve been able to find out, checking accounts are demand deposits (as in I’m demanding my money, so give it to me) and for that guarantee of instant gratification you don’t earn any interest.”

What if the checking account is a money market type of checking, paying only a few cents interest a month?

Does anyone know if a MM type checking is also a demand account that one can demand their money to be withdrawn?

July 25, 2012 at 1:29 am #4834

davefairtex

bluebird -

Money market checking accounts are…more dangerous than bank checking accounts in times of trouble.

MM funds are basically very short term bond mutual funds in disguise. They hold short term debt; bonds due to expire in 30 days, loans to banks (called “repos”) that pay off within 30-90 days, 4 week treasurys, etc.

Now then, when there’s no stress, these guys pay the interest they’ve received (less “administrative fees”) every month or so. And you can redeem your funds and you get $1 back for every “share” you own. But they have counterparty risk.

Let’s say some of that short term debt your fund owns is in a company that goes bankrupt by surprise. Let’s call it “Lehman Brothers”. Bankruptcy takes a while to process, and the fund likely won’t get back 100 cents on the dollar. If the fund owns a lot of those repos – say 5% or so of the funds assets are in LEH repos – then that 5% is locked up for a long time.

So basically, a money market fund is really just a bond mutual fund; if one of the underlying bonds defaults, the NAV of the money market fund will likely drop below $1.00.

Its easy to see what’s in your money market fund, just go to google finance and type in the ticker symbol. Take the Fidelity Cash Reserves fund as an example:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=FDRXX

Here are your top 10 counterparties:
U.S. Treasury Notes 0.10-0.19%
In A Joint Trading Account At 0.19% Dated 2/29/12
U.S. Treasury Bills 0.10-0.15%
National Australia Bank Ltd. 0.40-0.52%
Rabobank Nederland New York Branch 0.31-0.55%
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. 0.40-0.55%
Citigroup Funding, Inc. 0.48-0.50%
Straight-A Fdg Llc Ser 2 Iam Coml Paper
Bank Of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ufj Ltd. 0.40-0.50%
Bank Of Nova Scotia 0.46-0.65%

So a Rabobank Repo (NYC branch) is 3.76% of holdings. Let’s say Rabo goes tits up. 3.76% of the fund is locked up in bankruptcy. Once people figure this out, they will start withdrawing their money from the fund. Enough withdrawls, and the fund decides it has to stop redemptions in order to distribute the losses fairly. Your money is stuck.

This actually happened to the Reserve Fund during the 2008 crash. They owned a bunch of Lehman Repos, and ended up dropping to NAV 0.97 when Lehman went under. They stopped processing redemptions. It took a year for most of the funds to be returned. Read about this here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Primary_Fund

Read this article on money market funds, especially the section on “breaking the buck.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund

Last point: there’s no FDIC insurance in a money market fund. The safest 100% liquid DIGITAL place to store your money is a demand deposit account – a checking account. They’re supposed to have enough reserves on hand to give you your money back, and its FDIC insured (theoretically backed by the full faith & credit of the US Treasury if the FDIC fund runs dry).

If you want to avoid the FDIC middleman and don’t mind having your money tied up for a while, use Treasury Direct and buy yourself 3 month T-bills and automatically roll them. You can always sell them (I think it costs $50 flat fee) if you need the cash immediately. Funds are ACH-transferred (2-day delay) into and out of your checking account.

Money market funds, while they were (kind of) rescued by the Fed last time around, are lower on the food chain than demand deposits. Your money could be locked up for a long time if your fund breaks the buck.

My opinion: DDA’s will be the last “liquid” vehicle thrown under the bus in a serious crisis.

Bottom line: given current interest rates, there is zero reason to have money in a money market account. In my opinion, either use a real checking account, or Treasury Direct.

July 25, 2012 at 7:38 am #4841

bluebird

@davefairtex – This is a Keybank checking account, not a mutual fund. It is FDIC insured. It is called a money market checking account because it pays 0.01% interest. If you read the selected segments that I posted below, there is a difference in the wording of withdrawals from a checking account vs savings account. But what is curious, are these subaccounts within checking.

From the Keybank Deposit Account Agreement and Funds Availability Policy

Checking Accounts. Checking Accounts consist of two subaccounts: a checking subaccount and a savings subaccount. All of the provisions of this Agreement and all of the terms and conditions governing your Checking Account apply to the Account as a whole without reference to the subaccounts, except as provided in this section. If your Checking Account earns interest, the interest rate will apply to both subaccounts. If your Checking Account does not earn interest, no interest will be paid on either subaccount.

We transfer funds in the checking subaccount to the savings subaccount when such funds are not needed to pay checks, debits, or other items drawn on your Checking Account. We may sweep the entire balance into the savings subaccount during the weekend when no items will post to your Checking Account. We may also establish a threshold balance in the checking subaccount and transfer any funds in excess of the threshold balance to the savings subaccount. All checks, debits and other items will be paid from balances credited to the checking subaccount. All deposits and credits will be credited to the checking subaccount. We periodically reallocate the balances between the subaccounts to make funds available in the checking subaccount to pay checks, debits and other items drawn on your Checking Account. These transfers will be the only transactions on the savings subaccount. We will not allow more than six transfers per monthly statement period from the savings subaccount and, if a sixth such transfer is made, all funds in the savings subaccount will be transferred to the checking subaccount for the remainder of the monthly statement period.

In accordance with federal law, we reserve the right to require seven days’ prior notice of any transfer from a Money Market Checking Account (Negotiable Order of Withdrawal). Subject to these limitations, you can make an unlimited number of withdrawals in person or by check and arrange for preauthorized transfers and withdrawals, including telephone transfers.

Savings Accounts

We reserve the right to require seven (7) days prior written notice of any intended withdrawal (whether made in person, by check, by telephone or by preauthorized transfer or withdrawal).

July 30, 2012 at 7:06 am #4916

AndrewP

Anyone who has significant deposits remaining in a Greek bank is a fool and deserves to lose all his money. If they pull the plug on Greece, the TARGET2 system will be disconnected from The Bank Of Greece, and the ATMs will close down once they are empty. The bank run will last all of 10 minutes.

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