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 March 1, 2024  Posted by at 12:09 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  Add comments


Gilles Mostaert Sodom and Gomorrah 1597

 

Inevitably, we have “rumblings” in the ranks. Not every Ukrainian is suicidal, or a proponent of (more) meat grinders. Here’s Andrew:

 

 

Andrew Korybko:

 

The Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned in a Telegram post about the worst-case scenario that could happen by June whereby a Russian breakthrough across the Line of Contact (LOC) merges with protests over conscription and Zelensky’s illegitimacy to deal a deathblow to the state. They predictably claimed that those protests, along with claims of growing fatigue inside Western and Ukrainian societies plus civil-military tensions in Kiev, are just “Russian disinformation” even though they all veritably exist.

Zelensky Is Desperate To Preemptively Discredit Potentially Forthcoming Protests Against Him” and that’s why he claimed in late November that Russia is conspiring to orchestrate a so-called “Maidan 3” against him, which is what the Intelligence Committee explicitly referred to in their post. Their warning also came as Ukrainian media reported that Zelensky plans to ask the Constitutional Court to rule on holding elections during martial law in order to retain legitimacy after his term expires on 20 May.

The preceding hyperlinked report from Turkish media also mentions how “opposition party leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko proposed forming a coalition government to avoid a crisis of legitimacy” but were rebuked by National Security Council chief Danilov. What’s so interesting about this proposal is that it was first tabled by an expert from the powerful Atlantic Council think tank in an article that they published in Politico in mid-December in order to serve that exact same purpose.

This reminder and the subsequent proposal by those two opposition party leaders debunks the notion that questions about Zelensky’s legitimacy are solely the result of “Russian disinformation” just like a top European think tank’s latest poll from January debunks the same about fatigue over this conflict. The European Council on Foreign Relations, which can’t credibly be described as “pro-Russian”, found that only 10% of Europeans think that Ukraine will defeat Russia.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Congressional deadlock over more Ukraine aid proves that such sentiments are shared in the halls of power, and those who hold these views understandably don’t want to continue throwing hard-earn taxpayer funds into a doomed-to-fail proxy war. Western leaders as a whole, however, are clearly panicking over the latest military-strategic dynamics that followed the failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive last summer and Russia’s recent victory in Avdeevka.

That’s why many of them debated whether to conventionally intervene in Ukraine during Monday’s meeting in Paris that was attended by over 20 European leaders. French President Macron said that this can’t be ruled out despite there being no consensus on the issue, which his Polish counterpart confirmed was the most heated part of their discussions that day. This prompted strong denials from all other Western leaders who claimed that they’ll never authorize this, but their words can’t be taken seriously.

After all, the worst-case scenario that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee warned about and is actively trying to discredit as supposedly being driven solely by “Russian disinformation” could push them to conventionally intervene in order to avert the state’s collapse and an Afghan-like disaster in Europe. NATO is unlikely to sit idly on the sidelines if Russia steamrolls through the ruins after breaking through the LOC by sometime this summer, hence why a conventional intervention truly can’t be ruled out.

It would be very unpopular in the West as proven by the previously mentioned think tank’s latest poll and the ongoing Congressional deadlock over Ukraine aid, but that doesn’t mean that the elite won’t do it since they don’t take public opinion into consideration when formulating foreign and military policy. Even so, the large-scale protests that could follow in Europe are something that the elite want to avoid, but they might still risk them in order for their geopolitical project in Ukraine not to be totally for naught.

Average folks outside of Ukraine can’t shape the course of events, but those in that country could play an historical role if they revolted with the support of friendly elements in the military-intelligence services like those that surround former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. They’d be putting their lives on the line since the SBU abuses, jails, and kills dissidents, but enough of them are evidently ready to do so as suggested by the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee’s frantic efforts to discredit them.

It’s too early to predict whether they’ll revolt, let alone at the scale and for the duration that’s required to depose Zelensky with a view towards immediately resuming peace talks since the CIA-backed SBU could scuttle their plans by arresting their leaders (especially those in the military-intelligence services). If they do and this coincides with Russia breakthrough through the LOC, however, then it could swiftly bring an end to this proxy war provided that there are friendly elites willing to risk their lives as well.

Considering the global significance of this conflict, what’s regarded as the worst-case scenario from the perspective of the ruling Ukrainian elite and their Western masters is therefore the best-case scenario for the rest of the world. In the event that Zelensky is deposed and peace talks immediately resume right as Russia breaks through the LOC, then NATO might not feel as pressured by its security dilemma with Russia to conventionally intervene in Ukraine, thus reducing the risk of World War III by miscalculation.

 

 

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Home Forums Ukraine Intel Prepares for Worst Case Scenario

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  • #153815

    Gilles Mostaert Sodom and Gomorrah 1597   Inevitably, we have “rumblings” in the ranks. Not every Ukrainian is suicidal, or a proponent of (more)
    [See the full post at: Ukraine Intel Prepares for Worst Case Scenario]

    #153842
    D Benton Smith
    Participant

    If Ukrainian elites and power blocs (and their diseased cohort) want to stage a prophylactic preemptive rearrangement of deck chairs before the Russians crash the party they better get real busy real fast.
    Anything they scrape together AFTER a Russian breakthrough of the LOC is just going to look like panic (which would be true) and be ignored as too flimsy, weak and disorganized to be worth negotiating with. If such a newly forged coalition has a sufficiently strong enough broad base to constitute a legitimate negotiating partner to the Russ after Ukraine falls then they have enough power to take down the current Ukraine regime, and form a new government that should approach the Russians with a sensible peace proposal.

    I’m not close enough to see if that’s even remotely possible, but from THIS distance it looks like a non-starter. No matter who eventually steps up to the plate to talk with the incoming victorious Russian forces they will certainly need major testimonials of legitimacy from outside of Ukraine, and those somebodies can not include the current crop of criminal American nincompoops. because the Ruskies don’t trust those guys any more. AT ALL. I firmly believe that Russia will be quite inflexible in that regard, no matter who floats to the top of the swamp inside Ukraine itself.

    If there is no major action toward a coups of some sort in the next few weeks then I reckon the reorganization of Ukraine will have to go down some other way. One thing is for certain. SOMEBODY has to sit on the other side of the negotiating table when the Ruskies come knockin’.

    #153846
    zerosum
    Participant

    Ukraine Intel Prepares for Worst Case Scenario

    Peace.

    Now it only, Excuses. Not my fault.
    Peace negotiations will be by bankers, Blackrock, Monsanto, CIA, followed by approved peacekeepers by Russia.
    ———-

    #153861
    zerosum
    Participant

    Peace is more than dangerous than war

    CIA Spills the Beans About Deep Involvement in Ukraine: Part of Ploy to Undercut Republican Congressional Opposition to War

    CIA Spills the Beans About Deep Involvement in Ukraine: Part of Ploy to Undercut Republican Congressional Opposition to War
    By John Kiriakou – February 28, 2024 0

    John Kiriakou was a CIA analyst and case officer from 1990 to 2004.

    In December 2007, John was the first U.S. government official to confirm that waterboarding was used to interrogate al-Qaeda prisoners, a practice he described as torture.

    Kiriakou was a former senior investigator for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a former counter-terrorism consultant. While employed with the CIA, he was involved in critical counter-terrorism missions following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, but refused to be trained in so-called “enhanced interrogation techniques,” nor did he ever authorize or engage in such crimes.

    After leaving the CIA, Kiriakou appeared on ABC News in an interview with Brian Ross, during which he became the first former CIA officer to confirm the existence of the CIA’s torture program. Kiriakou’s interview revealed that this practice was not just the result of a few rogue agents, but was official U.S. policy approved at the highest levels of the government.

    Kiriakou is the sole CIA agent to go to jail in connection with the U.S. torture program, despite the fact that he never tortured anyone. Rather, he blew the whistle on this horrific wrongdoing.

    John can be reached at: [email protected].

    #153862
    zerosum
    Participant

    https://roburie.substack.com/p/the-cia-and-the-decline-of-the-american
    The CIA and the Decline of the American Empire

    ROB URIE
    MAR 1, 2024
    The oft ascribed motive (and here) for the CIA’s existence is to act as the US President’s secret army abroad.
    The US MIC (military-industrial complex), of which the CIA is a part, needs enemies to justify its existence.

    #153873
    zerosum
    Participant

    Ukraine has already made arrangements for peacekeepers.
    (Security agreements with Ukraine)

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ukraine-and-netherlands-sign-security-agreement-details/ar-BB1jbnnJ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=c23eb859661d4709b0b8e7376fe94453&ei=57

    Ukraine and the Netherlands have signed a security agreement (president.gov.ua)

    At the NATO Summit in Vilnius, G7 countries signed a declaration on security commitments for Ukraine, which was later joined by several other countries.

    The treaty not only mentions military assistance but also financial and economic support and the restoration of Ukraine.
    Furthermore, the agreements provide a commitment of assistance to Kyiv in case of renewed aggression by the Russian Federation.

    The other countries that have signed security agreements with Ukraine are:

    Britain; Canada; Germany; France; Denmark; Italy.

    #153874
    zerosum
    Participant

    Canadian peacekeepers?

    https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/under-the-right-conditions-canada-open-to-sending-noncombat-troops-to-ukraine-defence-minister-bill/article_eec6806c-d71d-11ee-91fb-ab92d0af803e.html

    Under the right conditions, Canada open to sending noncombat troops to Ukraine, Defence Minister Bill Blair says
    In an interview with the Star, Blair said the idea was discussed this week in Paris but Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned of “tragic” consequences for countries that send combat troops to support Kyiv.

    So long as such an operation took place far from the front lines of the war with Russia in a clear, noncombat role, Defence Minister Bill Blair says.
    By
    Alex BallingallOttawa Bureau
    Thursday, February 29, 2024

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