Feb 192024
 February 19, 2024  Posted by at 2:11 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,

Vincent van Gogh Red Vineyards at Arles 1888



Interesting assessment fom Andrew, but I have my doubts. He sees Germany take a leading role in Europe, but I think it’s in no position to do that, neither militarily nor financially. How the mighty have fallen.



Andrew Korybko:


Russia finally captured the Ukrainian fortress town of Avdeevka following a protracted battle that ended in Kiev’s chaotic retreat and the abandonment of its wounded troops. The timing took place as the Western elite met in Germany for this year’s Munich Security Conference over the weekend, which conveniently enabled them to plan their next moves in this proxy war. No significant financial or military aid is expected, however, despite Ukraine’s newly clinched security pacts with Germany and France.

Rather, as was explained here earlier in the month when analyzing the latest Biden-Scholz Summit in DC, the West’s focus will be on the long-term containment of Russia in Europe beyond the borders of that former Soviet Republic. To that end, Germany’s role as the US’ preferred “Lead From Behind” partner in the EU will become more prominent, which will take the form of connecting the “military Schengen” with the revived Weimar Triangle in order to accelerate the construction of “Fortress Europe”.

The preceding three hyperlinked analyses explain these concepts more in depth as well as their relationship, but they can be summarized as Germany exploiting its comprehensive subordination of Poland to resume its long-lost superpower trajectory after a nearly eight-decade-long hiatus. The reason why the West’s attention will turn towards accelerating this geostrategic shift instead of clinging to its proxy war on Russia via Ukraine after Avdeevka is because it’s now clear that the latter is a lost cause.

Russia already won the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO that Secretary General Stoltenberg declared almost exactly one year ago as proven by the counteroffensive’s failure and the subsequent reversal of this conflict’s dynamics whereby Ukraine is now once again on the defensive. Former Command-in-Chief Zaluzhny’s replacement Syrsky explicitly admitted this last week before the disastrous retreat from Avdeevka, which is regarded as Kiev’s last major fortress in Donbass.  

The stage is now set for a forthcoming Russian offensive that could steamroll through the rest of this region in the best-case scenario from Moscow’s perspective and the worst-case one from the West’s. That’s not to say that this will indeed happen because the so-called “fog of war” makes it impossible to accurately discern Ukraine’s full defensive capabilities behind the Line of Contact (LOC), but it’s not without reason that the West is panicking and Zelensky decided to blame them for his latest defeat.

He complained that a so-called “artificial lack of weaponry” was responsible in an allusion to the congressional deadlock over more Ukraine aid, which Biden agreed with to pressure his political foes. Navalny’s unexpected death on Friday was taken advantage of by anti-Russian hawks to demand that the House pass the Senate’s proxy war funding bill when it resumes its session later this month, but even if it’s approved, the problem is that the US has already expended its stockpiles.

While it’s possible that it could dip into those reserves that it’s saved for meeting its national security needs and coerce its vassals into doing so as well, the fact of the matter is that the counteroffensive’s failure in spite of much larger aid given to Kiev up until then suggests that this won’t make a difference. Whatever might be sent would be used solely to hold the LOC as long as possible and prevent a Russian breakthrough in order to perpetuate the stalemate that Zaluzhny was the first to admit had set in by fall.

Truth be told, that description was inaccurate since the LOC continues gradually moving westward and the pace might speed up after Russia’s capture of Avdeevka. President Putin already signaled that he won’t stop until his security guarantee requests are met through military or diplomatic means after recently regretting that he hadn’t ordered the special operation to begin sooner and saying on Sunday after the fall of that Ukrainian fortress town that victory is “a matter of life and death” for Russia.

It remains unclear when and on what terms the conflict will end, but the writing is on the wall and it clearly reads that Russia’s security guarantee requests will be met to some extent or another, ergo why the West is now planning for a decades-long “confrontation” with Russia per Stoltenberg’s own words. Therein lies the significance of the geostrategic shift that was identified earlier in this analysis regarding Germany’s role as the US’ top “Lead From Behind” partner for containing Russia in Europe.

In furtherance of that goal, NATO’s continental-wide “Steadfast Defender 2024” drills – the largest since the end of the Old Cold War – will be aimed at optimizing the partial implementation of the “military Schengen” between Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands, which France is expected to soon join. The Baltics will likely also participate as well given that they require support for building their so-called “Baltic Defense Line”, which could extend up to the Arctic if Finland gets involved too as expected.

The revived Weimar Triangle comes into play since Germany requires French backing because Berlin can’t realistically do all of this on its own, which in turn necessitated Poland’s military subordination to its western neighbor via the abovementioned logistics pact between them. A military corridor from France to Estonia, which could reach Finland via Denmark-Sweden (the second of whom is a NATO aspirant and expected to join this new “Schengen”), is therefore taking shape before the world’s eyes.

Russia’s capture of Avdeevka will therefore reverberate across Europe by accelerating the implementation of these long-term containment plans seeing as how NATO’s proxy war on it through Ukraine is obviously a lost cause after the fall of that former Soviet Republic’s latest fortress town. It’s this geostrategic dynamic that observers should pay more attention to than anything else since the resumption of Germany’s long-lost superpower trajectory is a development of global significance. 




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Home Forums After Russia’s Capture of Avdeevka

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    Vincent van Gogh Red Vineyards at Arles 1888     Interesting assessment fom Andrew, but I have my doubts. He sees Germany take a leading rol
    [See the full post at: After Russia’s Capture of Avdeevka]


    If the immigrants do not joint the military forces, there will not be anybody to fight Russia.

    Dr. D

    Interesting. What happens if they run Portugal to Finland in one line and don’t collapse? What kind of pointless poverty and sorrow will we have the whole next cycle? Where Russia needs to contain us and our pointless, endless poverty while they move forward into the 21st century?


    Just look a map of the area of conflict today and compare it to a couple months into the conflict. No real movement. Adiivka is what, 30 square km? Note that every oblast incorporated into Russia has parts that Russia has not controlled and does not control to this day.

    I think Russia is content to sit there in those oblasts defending them — pointing to the behavior of NATO forces in these regions – shelling “Ukraine” back in 2014, still shelling “Ukraine” today. Nothing, apparently, “Ukrainians” love more than shelling themselves? Even during an ammo shortage, they always spare some – for years – for shelling Ukrainian civilians – if they insist these areas are Ukraine.

    It’s an important point THAT Russia not even control these oblasts and is continually standing off attacks just as donbas militias were before the special operation. Maybe a few local successes, but that map does not really change. There is no strategic Russian advance. Russia “took” 20% of Ukraine? By moving in and occupying those areas already held by donbas militias?

    I’m sure that Nuland, Rand Corporation, etc have been working for years on backup plans, for instance making that large area southwest of Odessa into an anti-Crimea.

    I guess Russia just sits there defending parts of the new oblasts until Ukraine has a combination of Germany 1919 and 1945. Then what? March westward across all Ukraine? Look at that map. No.

    NATO and Russia are probably both setting up significant paramilitary forces in western Ukraine, forces which will have no involvement in the current military struggle.

    There will be a 1919/1945 demoralization and material collapse of government, military, and civil society in Ukraine

    Maybe a coup gets going. Maybe NATO launches a prepared coup of their own to pre-empt any other coup. Then it comes down to all these prepared irregular forces in the western regions. And how much material and reinforcements that “totally aren’t us” get shoved in from each side. The southwest half of Odessa Oblast is going to be bitterly contended for unless Russia does something extremely swift and surprising. Whatever NATO is stuffing that area with to fend that off, I very much doubt it gets pulled out and sent east as reinforcements no matter what occurs. Same goes with Odessa city itself.

    But anyway, something like either 90’s Yugoslavia or 2014 Donbass happens in various places all over Ukraine. Possibly severe, possibly very weak. Depends on what the people living in Ukraine all really think, believe, want at this point. Whoever’s left.

    There’s a longing perhaps to see Russia march to the Polish, Hungarian, Slovakian, Romanian, Moldovan borders to take it all away from Vanguard, Blackrock, Monsanto, and all the other assholes. Why let it all wrap with a 2001 Argentina being done on Ukraine? All that farmland and industrial capacity has probably already been hypothecated 100:1 then rehypothecated to 1000:1 no doubt. I don’t want to steal and redistribute the piles of riches the wealthy had printed for themselves. I want to steal it and then BURN it. That money has to die. I wouldn’t mind seeing it die on the plains of Eastern Europe. I doubt such a happy ending can come from Russia “taking it all” as I don’t see that happening

    If the various insurgency vs insurgency battles dont go NATO’s way, do they move NATO forces in officially? Based on responsibility to protect, maybe in response to a false flag? Definitely Russia advances to the Dnieper in such a case. NATO does not care what it ruins, so wresting Ukraine away from it without an amazing level of long term destruction is going to be very very tricky. I cannot imagine how it could be accomplished by the Russian army simply marching westward.

    Anyway, I don’t think the map will change very much as a result of Adiivka. Not unless you zoom in really close. The Kiev government will have a coup or disintegrate long before Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, or Zaporozhye come into Russian hands, let alone Nikolayev or Odessa.


    Canadians wants a cease fire. Canada is not a war. Canada will train expats. (liars and hypocrites.)

    Canada will donate more than 800 drones to Ukraine as part of an additional aid package to the country, Defence Minister Bill Blair announced on Monday. The drones, are worth an estimated $95 million, as an additional aid package.
    Since there a lots of Ukrainians in Canada, Freeland will also need to pay, to train, the expats to be drone operators.


    Lets not forget F-16 fighters .


    The Ukrainian Air Force neither confirms nor denies that Ukraine will receive F-16 fighters in June, refusing to talk about the timing. At the same time, they note that Ukraine is already adapting its infrastructure for this type of aircraft, according to Yurii Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force Command.

    “The only thing I can confirm is that there is indeed an action plan, and it is being implemented. Our partners are ready to hand over the aircraft to Ukraine. Those countries that have agreed to do so. Of course, it is not only about the transfer, but also about further maintenance of the aircraft, financing of this process, and modernization of the F-16. Because the aircraft is constantly being repaired and modernized. The countries that provide us with the aircraft certainly also assist in pilot training. In training engineers, officers, ground staff, and others. Because we also need to pay for training,” he says.
    That is why, according to the spokesperson, an aviation coalition of many countries has been created to help carry out all these processes simultaneously.

    “At some point, soon, I would like to say the time when the first F-16s will appear in the sky and help us drive the Russian occupiers away from the borders,” Ihnat adds.


    The ‘war’ in UKR (provoked .. > a civil war with USuk supporting the Banderists) is lost, and has been ‘lost’ for a long time, depending on how one wants to define that, and how one envisions the possible outcomes.

    Russia took over Crimea without splilled blood, the vote to join Russia reflected majority opinion (no comments on that for now) .. see also Donesk and L. split offs.

    See how the “W” -> US as top boss, others who follow (Germany, Italy in first place, Axis powers in the past, now + UK, side-switcher, heh..) has been silent about Crimea for about a year or more now.

    All those who ‘count’ and have ‘stakes’ in this game know that UKR could not survive in its 2010 form (done), nor do they care.

    Slavs killing slavs is great, any dent made on Russia is wonderful, biz oppos in UKR (extractive industry / cheap labor / .. farming not so much, requires stability, etc.) will be ‘plentiful’ when things settle down. The public will just be fed BS via the State Prop MSM, Putin lost as he didn’t conquer Kiev in UKR, we need to defend Democracy, etc.

    Russia will not give up until its ‘security’ is guaranteed. What exactly that will take Idk, as the European “W” has destroyed its credibility by being arrogant idiots…

    Russia can no longer sign any accords (Merkel and Hollande admitting they lied about their adherence to the Minsk accords, who put them up to that I wonder, heh) with European countries / the EU. Moreover, ex ‘neutral’ countries, Sweden and Finland joining / applying to join NATO, Switz. putting stiff sanctions on Russia (beyond the ones mandated by the UN, which it now has to follow), Ireland on a kind of dodgy fence..hmm… opposition within Europe to the USuk-isr is diminishing as I write, all are ligning up to the Voluntary Loosers Club.

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