Debt Rattle March 20 2023

Hieronymus Bosch The Garden of Earthly Delights, centre panel, detail c1500

I like that painting; but there’s a disturbing quality to it that I can’t quite figure out…

Brace for impact!

We analyze U.S. banks’ asset exposure to a recent rise in the interest rates with implications for financial stability. The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is $2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets accounting for loan portfolios held to maturity. Marked-to-market bank assets have declined by an average of 10% across all the banks, with the bottom 5th percentile experiencing a decline of 20%. We illustrate that uninsured leverage (i.e., Uninsured Debt/Assets) is the key to understanding whether these losses would lead to some banks in the U.S. becoming insolvent– unlike insured depositors, uninsured depositors stand to lose a part of their deposits if the bank fails, potentially giving them incentives to run. A case study of the recently failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is illustrative. 10 percent of banks have larger unrecognized losses than those at SVB. Nor was SVB the worst capitalized bank, with 10 percent of banks having lower capitalization than SVB. On the other hand, SVB had a disproportional share of uninsured funding: only 1 percent of banks had higher uninsured leverage. Combined, losses and uninsured leverage provide incentives for an SVB uninsured depositor run. We compute similar incentives for the sample of all U.S. banks. Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk. If uninsured deposit withdrawals cause even small fire sales, substantially more banks are at risk. Overall, these calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values very significantly increased the fragility of the US banking system to uninsured depositor runs.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676

The Private Jets arrived in Omaha in multiple groups. Sometimes landing at almost the same exact time.

Did Buffett schedule some meetings with different groups of CEOs every hour?

Number of Jets arriving:
5 ~10am (est)
3 ~2pm
5 ~3:30pm
5 ~5pm
6 ~6:15pm
3 ~7:30pm pic.twitter.com/68Ok6zl8cA

— FuzzyPanda 🇺🇦 (@FuzzyPandaShort) March 17, 2023

Bosch is high on psychoactive beer, but I often wonder why his people are all naked. Surely that’s not a given of visions.

“Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Senate Republicans are set to introduce on a bill on Thursday that would codify the right to bear arms for self-defense outside the home.”

You mean “The Constitution”? Federal Law #2? I just. Can’t. In many ways this is worse than just fighting the original rule. Pass a law to support the law of the law we don’t follow? Well pass another law then! Or have a third government to enforce the laws the first two governments won’t!

“”The New Normal”: New York To Lower Math And English Proficiency Standards Due To Poor Test Result”

Clearly NY has zero competency. Look at their leaders! But there’s a solution! Lie about the standards, Cheat by lowering them, and Steal unearned accolades that you graduated when you’re actually illiterate! That’ll fix everything! The next heart surgeon and bridge engineer is on his way. A whole school of these guys designed the F-35!

“!! SWISS AUTHORITIES EXPECTED TO CHANGE COUNTRY’S LAW TO BYPASS UBS SHAREHOLDER VOTE – FT”

Whaaaat? And they didn’t want it and forced them anyway.

“UBS To Buy CS For $3 Billion As AT1 Bonds Get Wiped Out In Record Bail-In; Swiss Govt Grants CHF9BN Guarantee; SNB Offers $100 Billion Liquidity Backstop”

Okay, so after 60 days’ lead time they broke the law AND they broke the bonds? K….so you DO know that everyone who owns those bonds and doesn’t get paid are going to daisy chain other derivatives, right? That will take 30+ days to appear?

If that’s your least-bad choice I have to wonder what’s going on.

And we’re on the “22”s now. Wonder what they have cooked up for March? Feb 22 was to push Bakhmut and make it clear Ukr was lost.

“Trump sends arms” And also was key in unprecedented sanctions on Russia. Now is it this way: Everybody everywhere is part of the Derp State and not trusted? There’s no hope? Or is it my way: Trump knows Russia is an ally against our common enemy, the only nation presently with mobility, and the sanctions he put on so Putin could blame us made Russia STRONGER as JUST HAPPENED? The way to “sell” Ukraine – a major DerpState Black Hat power base – to Russia to clear it out was to start a war. Trump moved the first pawns in that direction, not committed, but heading there.

Also on that, we have a “clear” delineation, as much as anything is clear, of the U.S. Military in two parts: Above the Generals and Below the Generals. Colonel is the highest you can get and not be a blood-sucking fiend, and all the considerable talent organization-wide is locked below that level.

But they also know it. Clinton took out the last Red-Hat generals making trouble in the 90s, the “America First” club. Obama purged anyone that moved in preparation for Hillary starting WWIII. So we have people like MacGregor now openly against the Milleys. Who keeps Trump alive? That he can wander around doing anything he likes and anyone who wants things done has to visit the kingmaker at Mar-Lago? Think about that when you ponder the question.

Okay, suppose I’m right? How do you have every dog-face to colonel overturn every General in the U.S. Army without causing a shooting war that kills 30M people and hands off the country to China and Mexico? When they have and are happy to release bioweapons all day?

Speaking of: I didn’t understand yesterday’s thesis on the USAF and the Labs. WHO are the players and what were their goals? Did they succeed in them? Things were suggested but not said directly. Could you repeat/translate?

That goes with the rest of us as well. Grassroots Americans are against their leaders also at some “Colonel” level. But how do the floor assemblers take over the VP’s/HR office down in the factory? And so what if they did? They actually don’t know how to run the tasks up at those levels either. It’s a hostage situation.

““If I want to increase production of gunpowder I need probably three years..”

With what minerals? They came from Russia. With what nitrogen? You just outlawed nitrogen worldwide. Told every producer you would come and illegally burn down his factory, force-merge them against Swiss national law, without a vote. Oh SURE! I’m going to open a new expensive factory for you! Right after I invest in farming, pipelines, and gas-powered cars!

They can’t be trusted. With anything. All commerce STOPS. This is the state of Rome in 200AD. All coins are buried, all people hide and go back to a self-contained Roman Villa run by the local power, not yet a warlord or Feudal Chief. Division of labor and economies of scale STOP. Commerce, travel on roads, STOP. Brigands in the forests, the collapsing roads cause even inter-town travel to STOP. All “modern life” STOPS. We go to the Middle Ages.

You can reverse this and turn around any time you like. STOP STEALING. KEEP YOUR WORD. PUNISH THE GUILTY. Reward the industrious. They won’t. Those are anathema to thieves and communists, but I repeat myself. They need to “Share” themselves to your goods, your hard labor, the very hours of your life.

Gunpowder? Surely you jest. Gunpowder is a step above food, and you don’t have that. Holland is proposing to re-plant her medieval forests. Try attacking Russia with a crossbow.

“Some militaries will have to up their recruitment efforts.”

Same as above: you already double-crossed, attacked, impoverished, betrayed, belittled, and killed everyone. And NOW we’re just going to “Sign up” for you as if you’re a real person and there’s a social contract? Don’t make me laugh. They’re training troops in high heels, and promoting gay rapes in the ranks (true fact, not hyperbole). Sign me up! Definitely! I’m all-in for a Sweden or France that is run for the pleasure of African migrants. I’ll definitely die making sure my blood and treasure goes to them and I’m a second-class citizen when I get home, arrested for standing quietly even NEAR a protected people, like in England.

Uh: No. Newsflash: No. A thousand times: No. http://www.no.com No and no. No means no. No plus no with a side of no on the side. I’d jump in the Baltic and swim to the Faeroes before I’d join you, or anybody like you, until every one of you is hung until black and your bones stick out.

I don’t fight on the side of Nazis.

However, my job is also to survive and see them hung, unlike the White Rose in Germany. “The job isn’t to die for your country, it’s to make the other poor sap die for his.” — Gen Patton. You can go die in a hole. You first.

“• Poland May End Up ‘Joining’ Ukraine Conflict – Diplomat (RT)

There are still some Slavs not genocided. I don’t fight on the side of Nazi genocides.

“justify” a preemptive war on Iraq, where there was nothing to preempt.”

Yes, but you didn’t need a security clearance to know that, you probably didn’t even need to be literate. Was Iraq going to occupy us? Invade us? Shoot 500 ICBMs at us? WTF were they going to do to us? WTF was the risk to us? Oh, so we were protecting Iran and Syria, their neighbors from Saddam’s non-aggression? With Turkey having Europe’s largest army right next door? WTF was your premise here?

20 years later they still focus on the WMD that weren’t found. But how would they even be used? What “Mushroom cloud” TF were they talking about??? And he DEFINITELY had them: Donald Rumsfeld and George Bush SOLD them to him for use on Iran, which he did on their orders. The Kurds, actually. Our bestest pals.

Now with Russia. What is Russia going to invade Delaware? Occupy Detroit? WTF do you think is happening? Europe spends 0% GDP on their army and don’t have one, WTF would I do it for them if they won’t? Not. Hard.

That’s to avoid discussing if Russia would take Paris which they don’t want and probably couldn’t even during the Soviet era. If Europe has no army I sure ain’t gonna provide one for them. Let them make their own and at least demonstrate the concept.

What do you think would happen if you trained all of Europe in high explosives and firearms and sent them back to the streets of Paris? Oh, you wouldn’t survive a month? Too bad so sad. Sounds like you’re not really a government then.

“25 highest-earning billionaires paid an average tax rate of 16%,”

It’s a tough call as they own Senators, write loopholes, and have dark money. But my point would be the top 100 people now pay half the taxes that come in. New Jersey – a VERY large state – lost some huge income with just ONE man leaving for Florida. Clearly THAT can’t continue in so many ways. For one, the balance of power is appalling. But also when you have only 100 people supporting the budget of a state of 10 million, you can’t double the taxes on them. They’re already far above tax limit, like UK is (again). You can’t “tax the rich” or plausibly claim to. YOU ALREADY DID. And what the little people will notice is although you already did, 0% of the money went down to them. Every year you say that, it’s worse than the last. Every State and City where this is done is worse than where it isn’t. People are dumb, but there are limits.

“Imran Khan Hit With Terror Charges (RT) ”

Pointed out that B in BRIICS has been sidelined, but most likely – and with Belt-andRoad – Pakistan is likely to meet India and replace them? What would that make it, the P-RIICS? (South Africa is barely functional right now too. Viral videos of black people saying they support White Rule again just to have order again. This is of course wildly racist: it’s not their melanin, you fools. It’s that the “Black” ANC, etc are all SOCIALISTS. White Socialists destroy countries just as fast and as thoroughly everywhere they’ve tried as well. Look at Argentina, once ahead of Germany in every way, until Lo! Socialism fell on them and they won’t give it up.)

Anyway, this is about keeping P out of the BRIICS. Made-up BS, or the same crimes every politician does, only lie Bolsonaro, or worldwide, “It’s not a crime when MY side does it.” And we only arrest our enemies and overlook our pals.

“Total Weight Of Wild Mammals Less Than 10% Of Humanity’s (G.) “

Every model is always wrong and these guys can’t count to 10 without lying, so I wouldn’t bet on it. However I don’t favor the present balance and would change it substantially. I think most humans would agree with me, so who is driving them against their own wishes? When cows and trees make them happy, who’s making them miserable?

Women’s Bathrooms. Protecting women every day in every way. Women Kneeling before men on National TV for National Woman’s Month. Know your place, I guess. Don’t you know wearing a dress and lipstick makes you a woman? There’s nothing more to it than that. Other than wearing that dress, you’re worthless. …That’s what I hear anyway. Would anyone like to stop now? Or do more women need to be raped and killed first?

Mass Psychosis video yesterday very worth the time, so posting again if you missed it. Covers all points without being political or hyperbolic. https://youtu.be/fdzW-S8MwbI

Too long to cover because it’s already entirely dense, but note it’s a form of torture, the point is to alarm you for nothing, then relax to get a good grip, then alarm again for no reason…you know, since 90-11. It is BETTER for everything to make no sense. That’s the POINT. Logic can be addressed. Illogic not so much. So it is the PLAN to have fake enemies, fake fears, fake arguments, the faker the better, it’s all part of the breakdown. In “their” language, the “deconstruction.” Deconstructing the modern. Post-Modern. That’s what all the really smart, cool kids are doing this year: illogic and murder, living in hovels with medieval diseases: don’t you want to join?

Then at last, like “Three World Wars” they trot out their “Saviour”, “The Man”, who will “Fix” it all and bring “Order” again. Their order. Very simple. Should be taught in all schools with a refresher each year. But since teachers are the instruments of the illogic and torture, I expect not.

“Is Soros a White Hat?” No, but don’t be so simple. If my chess opponent puts a pawn somewhere we say colloquially, “He’s playing into my hands”. Now is he ACTUALLY me, moving for me at my direction? No of course not! And not every move wins: my job is to put him in a position where he has no good moves and HAS to put his pawn someplace it will be taken. This is the situation of the Trump arrest. They have no good moves, so they’re falling back on the (failed) old eliable. I see this morning that after floating that, they’re finally learning something and getting cold feet about it since it – as I say – will play right into their hands.

Can we rephrase that? That chess move is one that can either stand as it is, — no arrest and he can do as he likes — or if addressed, the White Player has contingencies to address that will still be favorable to him. Black Player can see that: although they get the short “win” of taking a bishop or something, still capturing that White Bishop will open up the board and lose it in that area a few moves later. Now give in to temptation of the short win, or what? Or give in to it – although losing – because all the other moves are even worse?

The same play, same board arrangement was set up with the Trump Mar-Lago FBI raid last month. They took the bait for a raid and got slapped silly all over the board. They are STILL releasing Biden Top Secret docs all over the world, another one just last week. Now does “Soros”, his DAs, and the Black Hats want to take this piece, this yummy bait again? PLEASE, PLEASE do this.

And again, I’ve said the whole 6 years: Trump has like ONE play in his playbook, AND THEY STILL FALL FOR IT EVERY TIME. Why? Well when it stops working, he’ll stop using it. I’m happy to say after six years, they’ve finally learned Playbook One, and Trump has had to trot out Playbook 1.5. Not really 2.0 yet.

They. Are so. Stupid. Why do you think they’ll win?

Again, I’m begging you: go ahead and arrest Trump. Impeach him AGAIN, the third, fourth, fifth, sixth time. It’ll be HILARIOUS, and a total exposure, waste of time for you, while the rest of the White Hats below Colonels wander around the board kicking more pawns.

“The US Govt dictates to Ukraine that it wants more war and more dead Ukrainians. What a friend”

More exposure. Everything they do exposes them for the maniacs and mass-murdering psychos they are. You can’t stay married, stay obedient to a guy like that once you know. But denial of battered wives and children of abusers is very very high. Clearly.

“The current ruling western theology is very simple; profits over human lives.”

This is merely a translation of “We kill people for power,” but implying a motive. This is the extra half-step that I propose. Don’t let them off the hook because “it’s all an accident.” If it’s not Murder 1, you can go away a long time for Man1 or Reckless Disregard. I actually don’t believe that when it’s become a lifestyle, but it’s easier to prove and does the job: they become a bad, terrifying example to others.

“Half Of California Lifted Out Of Drought; Flooding Now A Concern”

Drought prediction, drought model, 1,000 drought model, all part of the AGW model, dead again. The End.
Again and again and again and again and again and again and again. That’s Science! Being wrong 100% of the time and never changing. When my hypothesis is proven wrong, I just change the data and do it again!

Switzerland’s uber-lofty so-called regulatory agency known as its Finance Market Authority (FINMA) is no such thing. FINMA just another sleazebag alphabet soup acronymical Gate Keeper like all the rest of the bullshit slinging “regulatory” agencies, watchdogs, ministries and similar totally opaque institutions on both sides of both big oceans. There job is to patch together a Rube Goldberg policy machine of deliberately undecipherable mind boggling ambiguous complexity of self-contradictory finance industry rules that all boil down to just ONE rule: OUR GANG OF KILLERS WINS NO MATTER WHAT.

Their assignment is to do whatever it takes to keep the criminal con game running at least for the moment by lying, cheating, stealing , stalling, bamboozling and KILLING whoever they must, by whatever means that it can, to keep the suckers guessing and diving for financial cover so that the game continues with the same Satanic Masters as yesterday. It’s not really that hard to do, since their victims have only two modes of existence to deal with, both of which are EASILY managed when one controls all of the symbolic forms of money.

Their victims are kept in a constant state of either slaveringly obsessed with greedy acquisition of “wealth” or stark staring pants-soiling terror of losing it all. Flip, flop, flip, flop. Easy Peasy . . . . until the symbols break and the triggers stop working . At which point it becomes IMPOSSIBLE, because the symbol is not the thing.

Expect the regulator, banker, financier, and general sucker suicide rate to go out the roof (or maybe a better metaphor would be “into the sidewalk”).

False patriotism is not the last refuge of scoundrels and fools. Laws are.

You do know (I dearly hope) that there is no such thing as law, with the possible exception of the ONE thing you can actually count on (this Universe is God’s sandbox, and the sooner you grok that and accept it then the better off you will be).

What humans commonly think of as regulations, or rules or absolutely unbreakable iron clad laws of Science, are at best mere guidelines and suggestions for a happy life, because all of those strict strictures are subject to the coin-toss of interpretation as to whether or not the directive under review on has been obeyed or broken, or not.

It’s Calvin’s Rules, mon frères, at least so far as human behavior is concerned, and the only way you’re getting out of here alive is by squaring it up with the Boss.

LOL on the pink pronoun door. In the Summer and Fall of 2021, when the authoritarian Pfizer goons on the Portland City Council were pushing me out of my job with threats, shaming and bullying, I posted pronouns on my email signature for the first time ever while bombarding the Safety Officer (lol) and “Covid Team” with questions they refused to answer.

Thee/Thou. Never let them take your laugh away.

In case you are wondering why Ukr fighter pilots want to fly F-16 fighter jets over old UsSRfighter jets is very simple.

Both the old USSR planes and the F-16 will quickly get shot down, but at least in the F-16 the pilot will have enough warning that he is about to get shot down, that he can eject and survive.

Now you know why!

Putin Visits Mariupol By Driving Through It Himself

He’s giving Presidementia Pedo Joe the FINGER and telling NATO to ‘blow it out your ass.’

Feeble Old Bedpan Bidet gets lost walking away from the teleprompter, much less finding his car keys

@Oroboros

Thank you very much for the Putin in Mariupol video. It’s like being de-gaslighted. When I see Western politicians doing their thing (and I mean almost all such video clips) all I see is posing, posing, posing and then more pretense committed in front of a camera. But when I see Putin in a self-driven tour of the rebuilding of Mariupol I catch a glimpse of simply watching a national leader doing his job. That’s what we saw. The leader of Russia going around actually going to where the work he ordered was being done, and inspecting how well the job was being done.

What a relief! How completely refreshing! It actually CAN be done, and you helped us out by posting that video proof. Good one, man. Very good.

Kunstler is good this week. His latest post [ https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/this-has-got-to-stop/ ] is outstanding . Just a couple more inches and his Overton Window may be open wide enough for him to see ALL the way over the sill instead of four-fifth of the way, but, hey, good is good.

I am reasonably prepared for collapse of the NATOstan-Oceania system by mid-year but if it takes until the end of the year for it all to unravel that will be a kind of bonus (other than the additional damage the maniacs in control of NATOstan-Oceania will manage to orchestrate over that longer period).

What i know from experience is the plans of the Military Industrial Complex rest on a foundation of disregard for life. Mine and yours.

Yep. And in the case of the mindless officials who promote insanity on a daily basis, disregard for their own lives and the lives of their progeny.

But since they are mindless officials, they will never admit that.

As long as they can keep making everything that matters worse by the second and get rewarded for doing so, they are happy.

Now that Bakhmut is pretty much done, the Russians will probably let whatever UkoNazi military forces are left there starve or surrender or get incinerated.

Meanwhile, the focus has moved to the next UkoNazi ‘stronghold’, which is close to being cut off.

. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV1nYqNpQbg

Here’s where I am at this point: There was no deadly novel virus, no leak, no bioweaponized disease. The PCR test as applied was, is invalid. There may have been a seeded pathogen that was not very contagious.
There were fudged records, an extraordinarily effective psy-op, deadly stress-producing agendas, and iatrogenic murders and manslaughters.
There is a bioweapon called the covid19 vaccine, which is more of a concept than a medical intervention. It has pseudouridine and patented sequences in its in silico design. It is unclear if this is in most of the injections.
The purpose of the whole thing was to test compliance to, and emotional investment in, The Narrative- even as it began to kill and maim people.

The fear we instilled made you hungry
for the food that we offered: vaccines.
Now you’ll eat any substance we give you.
We’re the future: we are the machines.

Bloomberg ads are aggressively pushing vaccines today- any and all of them.

CHINESE SPY BALLOONS DROPPING WHITE SUPREMACIST RACCOON DOGS ON AMERICA IN ORDER TO DESTROY FREEDOM IN UKRAINE!

I don’t think this is about “saving” the banks, but about restructuring after the derivatives crisis crashes the system. I suspect that is already baked-in.
Biden In Touch With Buffett On Bank Crisis
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-touch-buffett-banking-crisis

The most bizarre aspect of the pro Russia Western media is that they are saying the opposite of what the Russian media is saying, how bizarre , how bizarre.For what the Russian media is saying………..
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/red-list-13-moscow-is-just-making?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email#details

@my-parents-said-know: I thought that this summary from a recent post by Naked Emperor was pretty much on the mark:

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/a-summary-of-what-i-think-happened

And, from within the comments I plucked out this moving essay from Walking with Goats:

https://walkingwithgoats.substack.com/p/the-why-that-goes-in-all-directions

Am I wrong to think Ron Unz is anathema for this website?

On the other hand, this statement from Unz is fantastic and what I thought was emblematic in my career.
UNZ: “Every regime can always recruit opportunistic hirelings to mouth its party-line, but when some of its leading thinkers become so alienated that they risk severe retribution by publicly denouncing official policy, its basic legitimacy begins ebbing away.”

However, here and there my observation is we’re still stuck “…recruit(ing) opportunistic hirelings to mouth its party-line…” because:

If Macgregor or Ritter or Carlson or Gabbard or Jeffrey Sachs represent the leading thinkers then the point of severe retribution won’t be reached since it won’t be recognized…by the shrewd political operators who coopt the stylized image of a plucky, bedraggled striver.
In other words, let Trump rot in jail for as long as Lynne Stewart, Julian Assange, Jeffrey Sterling, Scott Ritter or John Kiriakou before we pass judgment again on his commitment to the cause or his bonafides. Patience is a virtue.