Debt Rattle August 31 2026
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J.M.W. Turner Old London Bridge 1794 • No, Iran Is Not Winning: It’s Losing Its Leverage In Hormuz (CNN) • Pentagon Strikes Iran Island Target, In Fir
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle August 31 2026]To be clear: the US is at war with the whole world for dominance and freedom is what the US wants to prevent you from having
there must be a unified effort to expose and displace US information dominance around the globe — through the creation of alternative social media platforms and content not only within individual nations of the world – but platforms for use between the multipolar nations of the world beyond the reach of US censorship, manipulation, and control
US War on Multipolarism: Turning the Gameboard Over
Brian Berletic, August 17, 2026
The world stands at a crossroads: either continued American hegemony or the emergence of a multipolar order, where a balance of power replaces the dominance of a single nation.US War on Multipolarism: Turning the Gameboard Over
The US has pursued a policy of global primacy spanning the 20th and 21st centuries, enduring regardless of presidential administration or the balance between Democratic and Republican parties in Congress, carving out what is a modern-day American empire.
The US controls not only the entirety of the Western world (Europe, Australia, and New Zealand) but also proxies in South America, Africa, and all across Asia from east to west. It seeks to maintain — even expand — its domination further through military and economic power, as well as through political subversion, infiltration, and capture, as well as through information dominance.Conversely, there emerges a multipolar world that favors a balance of power between nations rather than subordination to a single nation.
The US is waging a multidomain war on multipolarism — stretching far beyond just military and economic power — meaning for multipolarism to prevail — it must mount a multidomain defense likewise extending far beyond just military and economic alternatives
Centered on the BRICS organization led by the rise of China and the reemergence of Russia, the multipolar world is not only creating the means by which to defend against US encroachment, encirclement, and eventual capture — it is creating an alternative global system holding the potential to entirely displace the toxic US unipolar system.Multipolar Ships Rise on China’s Tide
China’s rise alone in terms of economic, industrial, and military power has, by nearly every metric, matched or is now exceeding that of US power.
China’s rise has created the opportunity for other nations targeted by US domination to trade with and benefit from a growing center of global power on par with the US and its proxies — allowing nations like North Korea, Russia, and Iran to sustain viable economies despite being cut off from US-dominated “global” economic systems, institutions, and services.
China, together with a growing number of partner nations, is creating alternatives to these economic systems, institutions, and services long since monopolized and perpetually abused by the US.
Despite this, the US remains a powerful and dangerous global power — but a global power whose limits are increasingly exposed by the equally powerful and growing multipolar world.
What has resulted is no longer a contest between two global players, but a player who inevitably faces defeat seeking to topple the gameboard altogether before that defeat fully materializes.
Toppling the Global Gameboard
The US finds itself an aggressive global hegemon with a system built upon the perpetual pursuit of power and profit in a finite world where its means to do so are in decline relative to China’s rise alone — saying nothing of the multipolar world China is helping take shape.
This can be defined in real-world metrics.
In global trade, 70% of the world’s nations count China as their largest trade partner — with China dominating global manufacturing, critical minerals, and other raw material refining and processing; shipbuilding (200 ships built for every 1 ship built by the US), industrial robotics and other industrial machinery; supply chains; mining; smelting; steel production; and virtually every other modern industrial input, process, and output.
China commands this industrial supremacy with a population 4-5 times greater than the US — a population larger than the US and its European, Japanese, South Korean, and Philippine proxies combined — and through the creation of millions more STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) graduates than the US, each and every year for the past two decades.
These human resources are combined with China’s unprecedented infrastructure expansion in areas such as power generation (leading the world in renewables as well as in nuclear power plant construction) and power grids, mass transportation (possessing the largest high-speed railway in human history together with the world’s fastest passenger trains and most powerful freight locomotives), industrial clusters, and telecommunications (5G networks).
Much of this infrastructure not only exists all across China but is now expanding globally through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The gaps emerging between China’s rise and existing US power are so large – in many cases the US has given up on even attempting to match China and is instead openly discussing containing, disrupting, and otherwise undermining it.
It does this through physically encircling China with its military and the military of its politically captured proxies in South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, as well as through the Chinese island province of Taiwan.
The US uses its still-potent domination over information space through US-based social media platforms and organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy — China and the rest of the multipolar world have still failed to challenge, let alone displace — to infiltrate, interfere in, and threaten to politically capture or destabilize nations along China’s periphery. Examples include the ongoing war raging inside Myanmar, US-sponsored regime change in Nepal, and ongoing terrorism in Pakistan targeting Chinese BRI projects — 3 nations along China’s own borders.
Further abroad, the US has systematically targeted China’s closest allies and energy partners — seizing control of Venezuela earlier this year in Latin America, then halting energy exports to China, waging war on Iran and disrupting energy exports from the entirety of West Asia, and overseeing a proxy war on Russia through Ukraine, including attacks on Russian energy production, storage, and export infrastructure — again — China being Russia’s largest energy importer.
This constitutes what is a growing “distant blockade” strategy in which the US is attempting to strangle China through energy and raw material imports beyond the reach of China’s military capabilities to counter it.
The US is using its remaining military, economic, and political power to coerce the nations of the world to “decouple” from China economically and industrially or face military, economic, and/or political isolation themselves. In some cases this is incrementally working — especially among nations already politically captured by the US (like Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines), but who have still built up close economic relations with (and dependencies on) China.
The end result for the US and its proxies is not their own rise, but rather a world where the emerging multipolar powers are dragged down to the current level of remaining US power. .
Together, this represents not a policy of competing with China but one of destabilizing and destroying the world China’s rise is taking place within.
Carefully Managing the End Game
It is incumbent upon China and the multipolar world to build faster than the US can destabilize and destroy it. Because it is always easier to destroy than to create, the US possesses an inherent advantage, especially when coupled with the US’ still potent military, economic, and political means.
But because of the sheer scale of China’s rise and the exponential manner in which it continues to expand, multipolarism may not only succeed despite US efforts to disrupt it — US efforts to disrupt it may even be further accelerating its rise.
It is imperative that the multipolar world manage this transition carefully — avoiding the wider destructive conflict the US seeks to provoke to demolish global progress with, all while ensuring resilience against Washington and Wall Street’s continuous attempts to topple the gameboard before the game’s conclusion.
At stake is either a world in which nations accelerate into the future under a balance of power between nations or stagnate under the domination of a single nation willing to obstruct or even destroy human progress in order to maintain dominance over whatever remains.
It would be a mistake to underestimate the US and its desire to maintain primacy over the world — or overestimate any desire in Washington or on Wall Street to acknowledge the failure of Western hegemony and voluntarily work along with the rest of the world rather than insist on dominating it.
From the highest levels of multipolarism — the governments, industries, and institutions of the multipolar world — to the ordinary people aspiring to live in that multipolar world, greater efforts must be made to improve the military, economic, and political resilience against what remains of US power.
Beyond just military and economic power, which the multipolar world excels at expanding, there must be a unified effort to expose and displace US information dominance around the globe — through the creation of alternative social media platforms and content not only within individual nations of the world – but platforms for use between the multipolar nations of the world beyond the reach of US censorship, manipulation, and control. .
Instead of an algorithm encouraging social division, weakening nations from within, while encouraging pro-US public perception to enable US political capture of these nations, multipolar social media platforms could encourage social cohesion within nations and positive cooperation between nations.
Through media like movies and music — rather than aping Western media designed specifically to encourage the worst of human nature — the preservation of local culture and values can be ensured while encouraging curiosity and respect for those of partner nations across multipolarism.
The US is waging a multidomain war on multipolarism — stretching far beyond just military and economic power — meaning for multipolarism to prevail — it must mount a multidomain defense likewise extending far beyond just military and economic alternatives.
Only time will tell whether multipolarism possesses the ability to foster such close and multidomain cooperation between the many nations of the world to prevail against US primacy, which has — for decades — excelled at dividing and dominating the world precisely because of a global inability to do so until now.
Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer
https://journal-neo.su/2026/08/17/us-war-on-multipolarism-turning-the-gameboard-over/
US-Canadian “Split” another Exercise in Public Perception Management
Just as the US created the political circus of a “US-EU split” to sell greater costs to average Europeans for the US proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, a similar political circus is being performed regarding US-Canadian trade and relations.
In reality, the US dominates key industries in Canada including technology, resources, energy, media, military production, and manufacturing all while Canada depends overwhelming on the US for trade – importing and exporting more from and to the US than with the rest of the world combined exposing the lack of leverage and thus agency Canada actually possesses exposing the fiction of this current dispute.
“Iran STRIKES Ships in Hormuz as US Navy WATCHES, Trump HUMILIATED | Mohammad Marandi
It’s hard to be humiliated when no one notices or cares.
“IRGC: US terrorist attack on Larak Island will be answered, aggressor to be punished”But maybe 40 years from now. When they get around to it. They’re carefully biding their time right now, luring us into a sense of complacency. Anyway, didn’t post for that but, it’s not a “TERRORIST” anything; it’s a MILITARY attack. Words have meanings. Yeah, I know we didn’t declare the war – lots of naughty words on that – but we clearly CALL it a war and hit military targets. Larak was not a school or shopping mall, like Ukraine does. So if you’re going to “just lie” about the smallest, most obvious things, I’m supposed to believe you for why?
“Prof Seyed Mohammad Marandi discusses Iran’s fatal blow to the US naval blockade”
Newsflash: our blockade didn’t end yesterday, we didn’t notice and can keep it up for 50 years. Nobody here thinks we can run the straits with zero incidents either. Every part of this is made up in your head.
To lose the war we have to notice you exist. Congress has to notice enough to bring it up in session and discuss you. If this sounds harsh, imagine how harsh we could be if we actually tried.
Top hit for “Jordan” is “Nike: Jordan” brand, 40 years old, and not important even then.
I hear “Don’t worry, by Sunday escalation will begin again” (either to jack the price for the closing oil contract, or etc) but it doesn’t. One exchange of gunfire is a radical DE-escalation from previously. Iran is shooting 1/10th, one 1/100th, 1/1000th of previous fire levels. They shoot nothing for days and weeks at a pop.
That’s not “Escalation”, words have meanings. Reality exists. They claimed to stop every ship, they shoot essentially none? One every third week? I suspect back in February they could have sunk more than one, so they are on a very, very clear, very chartable decline, with a very, very inexorable end.
Does this mean the number ever reaches zero? No. But it’s long since reached “irrelevant”. We can hand it to the locals because even Oman can contain Iran now. Does this mean Iran can’t sink a battleship or carrier? No, they probably can. Maybe they even will. But other than activate our fee-fees it makes no military difference.
Checking, gold is nowhere. However, it IS creating a very large multi-year flag pattern. This is no surprise as this is a USD/Gold chart and we’re going to back the dollar by driving up the price of gold. WE will be doing that, when Bessant feels like it. As usual. And to be fair, CAD is also nowhere at .72. It’s saying nothing’s going on.
Krainer vid, https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XbobntT0kHM Seems assembled, may be even be completely AI, but sounds like his points. They are worth keeping up with, however Welcome to the new world of non-trust now.
“Tucker Carlson Spends 380th Consecutive Episode Criticizing Country Nobody Is Allowed To Criticize “ BBee
“Trump Says Grocery Bills Should Drop After He Renames A Few More Things ‘America’ “BbeeToday:
“Afghan family into your home and see how that fits with your LGBT lifestyle.”They are constantly talking Red-Green alliance all over. That is, ultra-liberal, and Gay positive wing + hardcore immigrant Islamic wing. Guess which has guns and violence? And which do you think will be up against the wall the moment they get a chance? Yes, you’re right: Queer Eye will round up Hassan at gunpoint later and take the levers of government, outlawing their hope of throwing gays off buildings, totally.
“all of the top Black stars used to idolize Donald Trump, but stopped once he ran for President.”This is how honest and trustworthy they are. You can change your mind, whatever, but you pretend the past didn’t happen, reality doesn’t exist because Tiffany won’t talk to you at lunch anymore.
“No, Iran Is Not Winning: It’s Losing Its Leverage In Hormuz (CNN)
News is, it’s CNN. Minutes before an election.
Well, don’t worry: they’ll release smallpox or something to take your mind off it.
“everyone has a breaking point. Iran thought it had found Trump’s. Trump may yet find theirs. It’s too early to call.”
I’m sorry, what break point did Trump have? I’m confused. The midterms were never in question. Every candidate he supports, wins. He has no need to be re-elected. Israel never controlled anything. The military never reached into 11% of our resources. When you make stuff up, you’re going to get confused.
“But Act Four seems different. The US military has a clear objective”
Literally the same objective as Day One. CNN and everyone just made up thousands and thousands of things the administration never said. Most continue today.
“Propaganda has always been a problem when it comes to the fog of war”
Only because reporters have no interest in truth and will print any hilarious lie spoken for their Feelz. We must have at least 5 Aircraft Carriers sunk by now.
“Iran has ten main operating oil refineries plus the large Persian Gulf Star condensate refinery,”That means we never wanted to hurt those refineries. They can’t be hidden or defended. That means we want a functional, normal Iran, selling oil at a profit and handing the money to the people however they wish.
This also means Israel is running nothing, as they would not do that.
“accused the US of committing “war crimes”, arguing that the blockade is causing a humanitarian crisis.”
This is probably true. Blockades are also an act of open war. But where does this go in practice that we’re not allowed to hit anything that is of dual-use, or inconvenience anyone not in command? Yeah, that literally never happens and can’t. It’s a problem no one has a solution for over last 500 years.
“Russia’s economy is much less centralized. Bread comes from the baker on the corner, not some factory 100 miles away.”
As I say constantly here in the U.S., where there is no competition and government encourages every monopoly.
“515 American-headquartered companies among 567 total holdings — a staggering 91%,As Anti-Canadian as it’s possible to be. But we knew that years back. Canadian companies are smaller, often newer, and have more income potential. But Carney can’t invest in them because he knows he’s going to pass more policies that kill them all, and help move all of them to the United States. He’s going to do that personally, and has, his whole career. That’s like Starmer investing in St. George flag companies. He’s OUTLAWING them. Obviously you want to short, not buy stock.
But like the Fed officials, Carney says he doesn’t know anything about money. That’s why he was bank chairman on two continents. No. He knows, and he invests in the United States exclusively. As does the rest of the world. ‘Coz the U.S. is on brink of collapse, right?
With Ford, so he is the worst ever, THEN has all these scandals and…nothing? For YEARS? I don’t even remember when the crack scandal was up, 15-20 years ago? Yeah, um, from where is his power derived, ‘coz it sure doesn’t seem from the People and honest elections. A: Canada is an oligarchy, their version of Lords, and has been for centuries. Any public involvement is strictly formality, like men in furry hats and hanging bunting. It’s actually all decided by unnamed families meeting at Banff to decide how much nickel to release on the People of Sudbury and how many fishing boats to outlaw to families in St. Johns. Canada may be the closest thing to the Hunger Games on planet earth today.
“How much more evidence does Congress need before it answers why U.S. immigration policy?”
Same as Canada. They know perfectly well they’re screwing every citizen and destroying the country. They don’t care. And they don’t care so much, they don’t even care that you know it, that these documents come out. Make Me Stop. Make me.
Okay, man. We will. Bernie and AOC are for every immigrant and H1B visa, but Trump and Vance are not. Probably more than 1/3rd of government has flipped to be vaguely American again.
“Trump went on to argue that his critics have settled on a new line of attack: recasting a historic winning streak as unremarkable.”
It exists, so they lie. The End.
“James Clyburn Basically Says Clarence Thomas ‘Ain’t Black’ (Matt Margolis)Reality Exists, so they lie. That’s just how you win. Besides, Biden is the world arbiter of who is Black or not. Book an appointment and see if you’re black too.
““Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) may soon receive a bill requiring major companies to swear, under penalty of perjury, that they searched generations of corporate records for ties to slavery.”
You can’t have Communism unless Capitalism fails and everyone is miserable. So??? Make it happen! As long as any worker is still eating, our work is not yet done.
“Obama’s wife reportedly made sure Cheryl Hines never got a role in Larry David’s new HBO series,”
Because she hates strong women, Democrats, and tolerance. A Hat Trick.
“there must be a unified effort to expose and displace US information dominance around the globe — through the creation of alternative social media platforms and content not only within individual nations of the world – but platforms for use between the multipolar nations of the world beyond the reach of US censorship, manipulation, and control”
This is a problem, because the entire rest of the world is against Free Speech, Truth, Corporations, and Profit. So good luck. If you’d like to backtrack on any one of them, we’ll welcome you with open arms.
“The world stands at a crossroads: either continued American hegemony or the emergence of a multipolar order, where a balance of power replaces the dominance of a single nation.”
Yes, and the person choosing a multipolar world is us. We tell the world that almost daily. Then as each of our moves are successful they point and say “Ha Ha! See?? You’re doing exactly what you said you wanted, that means you’re losing!” Uh-huh. Okay pal. Get off the crack. Don’t be a Ford.
This is lucky for everyone, as clearly they could not have stopped us if we hadn’t chosen this voluntarily, as Iran richly shows.
“US-EU split” to sell greater costs to average Europeans for the US proxy war on Russia in Ukraine,”
It’s a very, very, very, very proxy war. As in, we have no men, money, arms, or increasingly intel there. While calling meetings telling everyone to stop, cutting off all military alliances and their very oil supply. Very, very tricky of us. This means we’re the ones driving and directing it.
I can see the same irrefutable logic is now running in Canada: if we look like we’re not doing it, we are. If we look like we ARE doing it, we’re not. If we say we have official government policies, they’re actually the opposite. We are actually having official policies clueless reporters just made up yesterday. Yup. Totes. “Reality is whatever I thought a minute ago in my mind.” That’s what “reality” means now.
“In reality, the US dominates key industries in Canada including technology, resources, energy, media, military production, and manufacturing”Yes. WTF did you get yourself in this position? Why??? And having no military? I bring up the Avro Arrow, etc, where Canada was once an actual country like Sweden. If you want sovereignty, you have to fight for it. You have to kick U.S. companies out, not allow mergers, stuff like that. You have to have your own oil markets and pipelines that don’t cross U.S. territory. What are you thinking??? It’s hard enough even if you do that, it’s just impossible of you don’t.
Once IN that situation, you have no options and no chance. So starting a trade war without the runup conditions of fixing a lot of this first is pure suicide. You’re not going to stop the U.S. by merely committing national suicide, popular as that is for you right now. I could send the “Palestinian Suicide Squad” clip, but I’ll send Patton:
“I want you to remember that no poor bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor son-of-a-bitch die for his” – General Patton
Every minute you do this, you HELP the U.S. and are LESS able to stop OrangeHitler and help yourselves. So please keep going. Shortly we’ll have all your money and you’ll have no leverage or economy at all.
I have never seen the like. But this does follow exactly on the logic of Liberalism and Leftism. And to think I used to think is was a bridge too far to say “Leftism is a mental illness.” Clearly it is: it divorces you from all Reality, the very definition of insanity.
It is TERRORIST everything when the US do MILITARY attack
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XX it’s not a “TERRORIST” anything; it’s a MILITARY attack. XX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXD wake up.
The US military is doing EVIL TERRORIST actions because the US government told them to do EVIL TERRORIST actions. You call it attack but it is war crime.
Consult decency, ethics, law and so onFlight Of The Globemaster https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/flight-of-the-globemaster
On Wednesday August 28, CIA Director John Ratcliffe Flew into Moscow in a huge C-17 Globemaster transport plane, when he had access to much smaller and nicer government jet aircraft. There is speculation that the transport plane was chosen because he was picking up bodies of US and NATO allied service-members killed in the line of secret duty in Ukraine, and retrieved by Russia. NATO service-member deaths in Ukraine are a known general problem, but specifics remain secret.
President Trump said that routine business was done and “some good may come of it”, but refused to give other details. He is at his lowest approval rating ever for his war against Iran. He really needs some good news for the next few months before midterm elections, November 3..
Vladimir Putin has come under the most criticism ever in his career over the past year, especially this year, for the interminable war draining Russian blood and money without victory. His party stands to lose a lot of seats in the Duma and local governmental offices on Sunday September 20, when Russian elections are held. President Putin is not up for re-election, himself.
The rational thing for Trump’s people and Putin’s people to do is to arrange some battlefield successes for Russia, or at least agree not to interfere, and some secret deal with Iran, using Russia as a trustworthy intermediary, while Pakistan keeps doing shuttle-diplomacy.
What might a massive C-17 Globemaster have been carrying that Iran wants and would accept as a sign of goodwill? The main thing that comes to my mind is pallets of cash that the CIA and DoD used to fly into Afghanistan and Iraq regularly to do everyday business. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/house-explores-wasteful-spending-in-iraq
Supposedly 640,000 $100 bills was a standard pallet load into Iraq in the early years of GWOT occupation. That’s $64 million per pallet. Iran has $100 to $120 billion in confiscated funds held by western interests globally. $2 billion is held by US institutions. That would be 31 and 1/4 of those pallets, a little over 22 tons of Ben Franklins. The C-17 Globemaster can carry 77.5 tons.
What if CIA Director Ratcliffe carried 22 tons of $100 bills to Moscow, to be forwarded to Iran as a sign of sincerity in negotiations? (The US also holds $5 billion of sanctioned Russian State assets. 77 tons is a full Globemaster payload.)The Honest Sorcerer, The Great Discontinuity Has Arrived – Why everything is breaking down and why all at once
We live in a supermassive complex system, often referred to as modern industrial civilization, or the world economy in short. This monster of an organism has a life of its own with its own inputs (natural resources) and outputs (products and pollution)—just like any living being or physical process in the Universe. Humans are, of course, an integral part of this system: driving the extraction of minerals and consuming the food, plus the gazillion of products and energy, made available in the process.
And this is where economic models, focusing solely on “utility” and prices—pure figments of human imagination—diverge from reality. This narrow minded world view has produced a number of unrealistic assumptions on which our entire modern civilization was built, and all of which are being tested to destruction… The map, which we confused with the territory for so long, is being ripped asunder as the current world order and the technological hubris it produced crumbles under its own weight. The ideas which we built this civilization on have become rifts and tears in the fabric of the map economists and politicians used to guide us…
..We live in a world where the growth of “supply” is not only increasingly restricted by the depletion of rich mineral deposits, aquifers, ecosystems etc. but world powers actively destroying each others assets: oil wells, refineries, transport vessels and shipping routes… Copper and silver supply was already restricted by geological limits; well before the war on Iran had started. Diesel fuel—powering mining, agriculture, transportation and construction—was already restricted due to limited access to medium heavy conventional crude oil; again, well before hostilities around Hormuz began. What’s worse, according to the IEA, around 80% of global oil and 90% of natural gas production came from fields that had passed their peak (including unconventional fields) in 2024, with the depletion of old fields accelerating over time…
..The idea that money can be loaned into existence (as opposed to be lent out from existing savings) was key behind the exponential growth we saw during the past centuries. The result, beyond pent up demand for just about anything from housing to stocks or from cars to gadgets bought on credit, was a similar growth in both private and government debt… Companies increasingly bought raw materials on credit, which they then used to build products often sold on credit. And while the material economy was able to grow the can of forever increasing debt could be kicked down the road—but with growth in both real material output and credit uptake coming to an end, the theory of a debt based currency system will be also tested to destruction…
..With the financial and military dominance of the West coming to an end, not to mention global economic growth in general, all previously democratic nations have started to behave like their authoritarian counterparts. No wonder: they’re running a race against the clock to install as many surveillance cameras, software backdoors and data centers as possible to store and analyze all citizen’s personal data before the AI-bubble pops and the financial system breaks down… Causing the last remains of the social contract to go up in smoke. With this mass surveillance, combined with a rapid development of autonomous weapon systems, robots and drone swarms capable to outrun (and soon outsmart) any human, the possibility of stifling a revolution even before its idea is born has now become a technical reality…
..While far from perfect, and never intended to serve as a forecasting tool, the (Systems Dynamics) methodology first published in 1972 under the title Limits to Growth, proved to be far more resilient than any other economic theory out there. Without going too much into the details, the authors were tracking the many interconnections between five key factors: non-renewable natural resources, persistent pollution, population, food production, industrial output. None of the scenarios produced by tweaking the variables in the model forecast infinite economic growth on a finite planet…
..Now, that multiple follow-ups to the original study (all published in peer-reviewed scientific journals) proved the original concept to be correct, and confirmed that we are indeed following the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario set out in the World3 model, there is little left to be done. The latest iteration of these follow up studies, titled Recalibration23, published in November 2023, lays it all out…
..The authors, however, found it important to note that the connections in the model are only valid for the rising edge of the curve, as many of the variables and equations in the model are not physical but socioeconomic. Therefore, they assess: “It is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.” …
..The authors (rightfully) expect that the complex web of socioeconomic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. And this is what we are witnessing in real time—both in world and domestic politics—a massive rearrangement in the face of an imminent collapse of the financial/industrial system predicated on infinite growth on a very much finite planet…
..The Great Discontinuity has just began, though. It will take years, if not decades to fully unfold. We are looking into a period of great uncertainty and economic turmoil interspersed with periods of respite and relative calm. Governments all around the world will turn desperate to keep things together, even as their funding dries up and their control over the events will turn out to be an illusion. https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-great-discontinuity-has-arrived Iran says it’s trade can’t be blocked unless all trade is blocked: Ghalibaf declares Persian Gulf oil flows for ‘all or none’
The top Iranian official added that the region’s security hinges on the withdrawal of US forces https://thecradle.co/articles/ghalibaf-declares-persian-gulf-oil-flows-for-all-or-none White House Planning to Reactivate Civil War-Era Court to Accelerate Theft of Iranian Oil – Prize courts were used during the Civil War to decide the legitimacy of goods seized at sea https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/27/white-house-planning-to-reactivate-civil-war-era-court-to-accelerate-theft-of-iranian-oil/
Iran threatens US economic interests if maritime blockade continues
Iran had ‘broken the maritime blockade’ during ceasefire, exported between 70-80M barrels of oil, says Supreme National Security Council secretary https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-threatens-us-economic-interests-if-maritime-blockade-continues/4039688Simplicius may be speaking a bit prematurely. This isn’t over yet: The True Extent of Fallout From US’s Defeat in Iran Is Still Being Processed https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the-true-extent-of-fallout-from-uss
Moon of Alabama, Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit
Sundance, Aug 26 2026 – Western media are reporting that CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow, Russia, to warn his Russian counterpart Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), about striking back against Baltic states. However, that’s only half of the story.
Director Ratcliffe wasn’t simply telling Naryshkin not to hit back; he was telling Naryshkin that European NATO provocations against the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (between Poland and Lithuania) were not ‘fully’ sanctioned by the United States.
Apparently, European NATO is increasingly trying to provoke expanded conflict with Russia, while President Trump and CIA Director John Ratcliffe attempt to tamp down the problems being created.
That is a wild theory, with no evidence, but it is at least interesting. If true though it would mean that the U.S. would not mind for Russia to hammer the NATO Europeans without itself hitting back. I doubt that it would be a sustainable position.
My own speculation is that Ratcliffe’s trip was nearly solely about the Iran situation.
The U.S. has likely asked Russia to not support Iran, while -in return- offering some empty concessions on Ukraine. As the current U.S. administration has proven itself to be not-agreement-capable any such deal is likely to see a Russian rejection...
..Comments: Steve Jermy told Judge Nap that he thinks Ratcliffe took a cargo plane to pick up American KIAs. Sounds plausible to me. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/08/funny-media-speculations-about-cia-ratcliffes-russia-visit.htmlRussia Hits Kiev Ammo Dump Next To Homes; Ukraine Admits 90% Of Retail Food Logistics Wrecked https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-hits-kiev-ammo-dump-next-homes-ukraine-admits-90-retail-food-logistics-wrecked
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-30
Two things genuinely moved: Trump announced and Caracas confirmed a 65-billion-barrel Venezuela oil deal, and the physical-oil crowd spent the next 24 hours explaining why none of those barrels arrive this decade.
Meanwhile Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole turn got repriced into a real September hike (57% odds, Deutsche Bank calling Sept and Dec), metals took the slam, and a Russian jet-drone hit an ammunition depot inside a residential area near Kyiv – casualty counts diverge sharply between sources. Everything else is continuation with specific advances: Sumy villages falling, day 50 of the Odesa port campaign, diesel still the tightest corner of the barrel...
..Sovereignty objection, from a Venezuelan voice: an illegitimate regime has no mandate to bargain away the resource, and the US no right to claim it (HectorMujicaFL..)...
..The contrarian construction worth reading twice: Warsh needs a downturn he cannot openly create, and sticky oil either forces a hike the long end can’t survive, or breaks demand and hands him the recession that permits cuts – making Tehran the ally he can’t name (Mark4XX). Confidence: LOW, single-source thesis, but the mechanism is coherent...
..Hormuz at six months: Gulf export volumes reported at 6.5, 8-10, and 15-16 mb/d…
..Vortexa’s chief economist, relayed by Mark4XX, puts the more meaningful 28-day average near 6.5 mb/d of total oil, against White House citations of 8-10 mb/d on short moving averages. One day printed 15 million; that isn’t a trend. A VLCC shuttle system now loads inside the Gulf, goes dark, and transfers outside the strait, mostly at night, with confirmation lagging three to four days. These three figures are not reconcilable – treat the spread as the story.
Who’s actually shipping: Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have raised loadings and are taking the risk; Saudi Arabia is shipping at very low levels; Iranian exports are essentially zero. Risk tolerance, not geology, decides who exports (Mark4XX)...
..Damage assessment: South Pars restored to 40% capacity, with full repair estimated at at least two years per Deputy Oil Minister Zeraatkar…
..Escalation of the financial front: first secondary sanctions applied – an Egyptian bank blocked from dollar access over “Iran ties” (zerohedge) – and Washington is looking to revive “prize courts” for Iranian oil seizures (zerohedge).
The six-month scorecard from Aaron David Miller: “none of the objectives the president outlined has yet been fulfilled”; Iran escalated horizontally using geography rather than matching firepower, and survived with much of its missile and drone capacity intact (DanielLDavis1)...
..Diplomacy dead for now: Russia rejected the CIA/Vatican peace plan as another Minsk-style time-buy (GeromanAT), and air raids increased after the Moscow visit (GeromanAT). simpatico771 claims to reveal the visit’s true motives...
..Agriculture: wheat at a 3-year high, 11-session ag streak, rice +61% … The next-leg call: fertilizers as the hottest commodity theme into 2027 (RockBtmEntries) https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-30Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-29
Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote landed hawkish and repriced everything – September hike odds went from a third to better than half, gold lost $150 and the 200-day, and the 2Y jumped 10bps.
Second delta: Trump announced US majority control over 65bn barrels of Venezuelan reserves while Caracas openly weighs leaving OPEC. Continuation, but with real advances: Kyiv is into a third day of near-continuous strikes with Ukraine’s retail food logistics ~90% destroyed and rationing starting, and Iran fired a ballistic missile at shipping in Hormuz hours after CENTCOM declared the lane clear of mines. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-29Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-08-28
Nvidia’s blowout print bought exactly one session of euphoria before the WSJ reported it has paused the revenue-sharing deals that underpin the circular-financing structure – the stock added ~$500bn while the plumbing behind it quietly got pulled. ..
..Nvidia pauses AI-cloud revenue-sharing one day after the print – WSJ reports Nvidia stepped back from the revenue-sharing programme last week, per zerohedge, framed as putting the “circular financing house of cards in jeopardy” (zerohedge). Separately: what are rising GPU rental prices worth if Nvidia is renting its own unused GPUs back from its customers ? (zerohedge)…
Elsewhere the tape is grim rather than new: AP puts US Patriot stocks in Europe at “beyond critical” after ~1,500 of 2,330 interceptors were burned in the Iran war, Kyiv logged 13 air-raid alarms in a single day, and Iran says it will write the terms for reopening Hormuz.
Japan’s 2-year auction produced the weakest demand measure since 2016 and the Bund hit a 15-year high – the sovereign side is loosening while equity indices print records. https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-08-28Everybody we shot was a “terrorist”, same as in Vietnam: Inside the Israeli military policy to ‘justify’ lethal actions in deadly attacks on civilians in Gaza https://israelpalestinenews.org/inside-the-israeli-military-policy-to-justify-lethal-actions-in-deadly-attacks-on-civilians-in-gaza/
Arab National Congress condemns Israeli seizure of UNRWA center – The Arab National Conference condemns the seizure of an UNRWA vocational training center near occupied al-Quds and calls for international action. https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/arab-national-congress-condemns-seizure-of-unrwa-center
Gaza isn’t able to recover from famine as acute malnutrition soars across the Strip, new report finds – Israeli restrictions on food entry are stalling recovery from famine in Gaza as malnutrition cases climb, an IPC report finds. Two-year-old Hashem Abu Mustafa, born hungry in a Rafah tent, may already be beyond saving. https://mondoweiss.net/2026/08/gaza-isnt-able-to-recover-from-famine-as-acute-malnutrition-continues-to-soar-across-the-strip-new-report-finds/
As acute malnutrition ravages Gaza, Israeli leaders call for starvation policy – Daily Update https://israelpalestinenews.org/as-acute-malnutrition-ravages-gaza-israeli-leaders-call-for-starvation-policy-daily-update/
Five Palestinians killed, others injured in Israeli attacks in Gaza https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/27/369027/
“Access to Oxygen Is Not a Medical Luxury”: With No Spare Parts Allowed In, Gaza’s Hospital Equipment Is Collapsing
Israel’s restrictions on medical supplies and equipment are still making health care in Gaza all but impossible. https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/gaza-hospitals-medical-equipment-supplies-israeli-blockade Palestinian children return to school under threat of Israel demolition – As new school year begins, children in West Bank’s Masafer Yatta face threat that their schools may not remain standing. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/8/27/palestinian-children-return-to-school-under-threat-of-israel-demolition
Why do the mass-murderers get to decide, again? After Spain, Netherlands, Israel Weighs Expelling UK from Gaza Center – FT
Israel has discussed removing British representatives from the US-led International Gaza Support Center.
Similar measures have reportedly been considered against Italy and Germany, following the earlier removal of Spanish and Dutch representatives.
A British source told the FT that some form of Israeli “payback” was logical to expect following Britain’s increasingly critical stance. https://www.palestinechronicle.com/after-spain-netherlands-israel-weighs-expelling-uk-from-gaza-center-ft/
EMPTY SHELVES IN UKRAINE — Russia’s Warehouse War Breaks the Supply Chain🚨Military Summary 2026.8.31
———— The removal-from-land part of “Genocide”: Israeli annexation push threatens regional peace, Palestine tells UN
Riyad Mansour tells the UN Security Council that the E1 settlement plan constitutes an act of war and sabotages US diplomatic efforts. https://www.trtworld.com/article/7de51e39a83f HEBRON, August 27, 2026 (WAFA) — Two Palestinian women and a 14-year-old girl were wounded by Israeli gunfire late Wednesday night in the town of Al-Karmel, south of Hebron.
WAFA correspondent reported that Israeli forces raided Al-Karmel, deployed across its streets, and stormed several Palestinian homes, turning them into military outposts. The soldiers then opened live fire at a vehicle carrying several women, wounding two women, aged 58 and 30, and a 14-year-old girl in the face and head. https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174133?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wappIsraeli forces destroy water wells and livestock shelters in Tubas-area community https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174144?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Israel issues demolition notices for nearly 30 structures in east Jerusalem’s Anata https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174139?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The Israeli occupation authority has issued a military order seizing over 15 dunums of private Palestinian land in al-Bireh, in the central West Bank, to construct a 3.8-kilometer “security route” encircling the illegal Psagot settlement.
The planned route will cut off another 380 dunums situated between it and Psagot’s existing perimeter, according to field data.
The construction of this route will bar Palestinian owners from accessing their plots of land, placing the terrain under the de facto security control of the Psagot settlement. https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/27/369024/Imprisoned for living at home in Palestine: Behind Israeli bars: Detention without charge, abuses against women and children, and denied rights https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/08/27/369056/
Israeli airstrikes target towns in Southern Lebanon – The Israeli army continued its airstrikes, artillery shelling, demolition operations, and land-clearing activities in southern Lebanon, targeting several towns despite the ceasefire announced on June 20. https://hawarnews.com/en/israeli-airstrikes-target-towns-in-southern-lebanon
Lebanon Accuses Israel of Scorched Earth Policy as Southern Forests Are Burned – Israel restricts Lebanese Christians from leaving southern towns
Lebanon’s National Council for Scientific Research (NCSR) has issued a report that some 160 km² of land in southern Lebanon have been systematically burned by Israeli activity since 2023. This includes large amounts of farmland, but what is being called a “scorched earth” policy is increasingly including forests… Forests and olive groves are torched, while Israel is spraying pesticide on the farmland at levels which greatly exceed normal usage, leading Lebanon to accuse Israel of using herbicide as a weapon of war...
..The NCSR estimates tens of billions of dollars in damage have been done to Lebanese land as a result of Israeli military operations, and those operations are far from over, with several new attacks reported daily across the south, and the damage being so widespread and spanning so many areas that it’s not even possibly to reliably estimate the full toll.
“Those whose land they didn’t burn, they’ve bulldozed,” noted one villager from near Shaqra, an area actively under Israeli occupation for months, where demolition activity is still regularly ongoing. Many villages in the farthest south, particularly predominantly Shi’ite villages, are effectively totally gone at this point, and displaced residents face an uncertain future.
The Christian towns are somewhat different. Though Israel has attacked those towns intermittently throughout the war, they’re being careful to not destroy them outright. That’s both a blessing and a curse for residents of those towns, however, as they report Israel continues to have their towns totally surrounded and is severely limiting the ability of locals to leave without permission. https://news.antiwar.com/2026/08/26/lebanon-accuses-israel-of-scorched-earth-policy-as-southern-forests-are-burned/ Israeli airstrike kills woman, injures six in southern Lebanon – BEIRUT, August 27, 2026 (WAFA) — A 28-year-old woman was killed and six others, including a child, a woman and two elderly men, were injured on Thursday in an Israeli airstrike on the town of Arabsalim in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health…
..The strike killed Saja Mousa Sharara, 28, who had moved into the house just 48 hours earlier after her wedding. The attack completely destroyed the house and caused extensive damage to surrounding homes and commercial establishments, spreading fear and panic among residents. https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/174151?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp Israel is exporting its West Bank land seizure model to colonize new territory in Syria, using 140 cattle to do it
Israel’s use of so-called “shepherding outposts” to seize Palestinian land through settler herders is now being exported to Syria, as an Israeli settler, supported by the state, occupies Syrian pastureland in Wadi Toemm with a herd of 140 cattle. https://mondoweiss.net/2026/08/israel-is-exporting-its-west-bank-land-seizure-model-to-colonize-new-territory-in-syria-using-140-cattle-to-do-it/ Why you are being lied to about Yemen and the implications of its liberation – A strong and united Yemen, with access to its resources and the ability to continue developing its military capabilities, will without a doubt be the biggest threat to US-Israeli hegemony in the Arab world. https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/opinion/why-you-are-being-lied-to-about-yemen-and-the-implications-o
Caitlin Johnstone, You’re A Terrorist If You Resist Genocide Or Mass Surveillance, And Other Notes https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/youre-a-terrorist-if-you-resist-genocide
Agentic AIs escaped containment. Maybe start pulling out cash for your Christmas shopping now? OpenAI, Anthropic issue dire cyber threat warning
OpenAI, Anthropic, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft and more than 100 other companies warned Thursday that the organizations now only have months to prepare for AI-enabled cyberattacks.
Why it matters: Hospitals, water treatment plants and other critical infrastructure will face a swarm of hacking threats as AI makes sophisticated cyber capabilities cheaper and more accessible to attackers, the group write in an open letter.
Driving the news: “We have a limited window to strengthen cyber defenses,” the letter says.
The group is calling for “collective action” and urges organizations to use their shrinking window to secure critical infrastructure and make it more expensive and difficult for hackers using AI tools to break in. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/27/openai-anthropic-issue-dire-cyber-threat-warningSugar-free babies live longer, healthier and smarter, like breast-fed babies: These Babies Grew Up With Strict Sugar Limits. Decades Later, The Results Are Dramatic.
It was January 1940, and the United Kingdom had a serious problem. German attacks on import ships were threatening to trigger extreme food shortages, effectively starving the nation into submission. Overnight, strict food rationing went into effect, limiting the amount of certain foods people could buy, including common staples like sugar.
Decades and entire lifetimes later, the long-tail effect of that enforced sugar reduction during World War II appears to have dramatically boosted the health of an entire generation of wartime babies. https://www.sciencealert.com/these-babies-grew-up-with-strict-sugar-limits-decades-later-the-results-are-dramatic Celia Farber digs into a completely fabricated “emergency”: Battleground Lancaster: The Measles Op Has Been Blown Up, Yet Is Still Flying: Who Are The “Reporters” Who Kicked It Off? Aubrey Whelan And Gillian McGoldrick Of Philadelphia Inquirer
Who Was Next? Discern The Pattern: War On The Amish, War On Exemptions. War On Christianity, Home Schooling, AND Home Births https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/battleground-lancaster-the-measlesAaron Siri, Yes, There Is DNA from Aborted Fetal Tissue in the Measles Vaccine, Billions of fragments, in fact https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/yes-there-is-dna-from-aborted-fetal
Celia Farber follows up: Hindenburg? Jamal Holley Was Told By DNC Insider That They Can’t Spin Or Fix Josh Shapiro’s Measles Debacle, And He Is In Day 3 Of Silence: “No Crisis Firm Fixes That.” – “The Private Line Inside The Party Is, Stay Away From Him.” https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/hindenburg-jamal-holley-was-told
Steve Kirsch as OBVIOUSMAN: Sudden-onset autism survey results show it’s the vaccines causing autism. No doubt about it.
According to the survey, 30% of sudden-onset autism cases are happening on the SAME day as vaccines are given, AFTER the shots are given, and never BEFORE the shot are given. So it’s not symmetrical. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/sudden-onset-autism-survey-results So how many mice is enough? Just “Trust The Science”, right? BREAKING: FDA Approves New Pfizer and Moderna XFG mRNA COVID Shots Based on Data From Just 8–10 Mice – The new formulations were approved before their human safety and immunogenicity studies even began https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-fda-approves-new-pfizer
Steve Kirsch, Jmii paper adds to the evidence that the COVID vaccine opens up the blood-brain barrier (BBB) which can cause permanent neurological injury or death
This in vitro study showed the spike protein, from the SARS-CoV-2 virus or vaccine, can disrupt the BBB leading to headache, brain fog, permanent neurological damage, and death. https://kirschsubstack.com/p/jmii-paper-adds-to-the-evidence-that Get your Vitamin-D level up into the normal range. Run-away from the new mRNA “vaccine” products. Tamiflu helps very sick people die. Paul Marik MD,
Treat the Patient, Not Just the Virus: Rethinking Influenza After the Tamiflu Scandal – A Mutti-axis approach to the treatment of influenzae https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/treat-the-patient-not-just-the-virus But, but, but the similar Moderna product advanced to Stage-3: BioNTech mRNA Cancer “Vaccine” Trial TERMINATED Over Alarming Mortality Signal
The independent Data Safety Monitoring Board flagged an overall-survival imbalance [“killing some folks”] after cancer patients received an aggressive hyper-dosing regimen of up to 15 IV mRNA doses. https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-biontech-mrna-cancer-vaccinePaul Marik MD, Getting a Second Opinion, Getting a Second Opinion: One of the Most Important Decisions After a Cancer Diagnosis https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/getting-a-second-opinion
“Caveat Emptor”, Paul Marik MD, Choosing the right Guide
The most dangerous mistake patients make in treating their cancer is not a specific drug, diet, or supplement. It is choosing the wrong guide.
Patients step outside conventional oncology because they are searching for something better—more rational, more humane, more effective. That instinct is understandable. But in doing so, many unknowingly walk into a landscape that is largely unregulated, scientifically inconsistent, and at times, frankly predatory.
The single biggest error I see is this: patients place their trust in practitioners who are not medically qualified, not scientifically grounded, and not acting in the patient’s best interest. https://paulmarik.substack.com/p/choosing-the-right-guide World’s oceans hit hottest temperature on record in August – Average sea surface temperature outside polar regions was 21.1C on Saturday, latest data finds https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/24/worlds-oceans-hit-hottest-temperature-on-record-in-august
At Michael Reid # 248790
Your Dr D (my Dr D(uh) presence these pages is your opportunity for aerobic scholling, Decades ago when these pages were still young, Dr D(uh)’s style was to set up a straw mman and then tediously disassemble leaving the reader with reaction – well duh! The style remains the same but with more polish but the reaction persists. Appreciate for the acrobic exercise provided.
Re: Michelle Obama’s strange comments about Sasha and Melia –
It would almost seem as though she might not really be their mother.Nima R. Alkhorshid: Iran Launches MAJOR Retaliation…Record-Speed Strike on Jordan Changes Everything
NATO 3.0 The Empire Strikes Back Against Its Own | Nel Bonilla
NATO is not going to collapse. It is arming itself below the headlines, and demanding more of USA allies and all the citizens of NATO countries. If you want to understand the realities of NATO, watch this interview with Nel Bonilla on how the empire functions today
Subscribe and support Nel’s work at https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/ or via the Substack app.Key topics
Nel’s assessment of NATO 3.0 unveiled at the Ankara Summit
The domestic consequences of NATO 3.0’s perpetual war
The remarkable resilience of Western empiresWatch the full interview here • Empires and NATO 3.0. The Way Out of the I…
Read Nel’s essay, “NATO 3.0: The Transatlantic Cage and the Rise of the Bunker state: The transformation of NATO and Europe’s new role as an attritional node” at https://worldlinesletter.substack.com…
At Nel’s Worldlines newsletter, academic rigor meets accessible insight. Nel breaks down complex global patterns and weaves together insights that matter.
✨Dive deep into history at https://jeffrich.substack.com
Want more on the history of empire? Join my YouTube channel as an archivist member and get access to my members-only videos on the rise and fall of global empires from 1400 to today.
/ @theburningarchive .Other interviews with Nel to watch:
In the Burning Archive:In Iran the West Trapped Itself in the Bunker: Nel Bonilla • In Iran the West Trapped Itself in the Bun…
China is TRAPPED in an Imperial World that is NOT Collapsing Anytime Soon: Nel Bonilla • China is TRAPPED in an Imperial World that…
On @neutralitystudies:
NATO’s Plans for Total Global Dominance & The Bunker State | Nel Bonilla • NATO’s Plans for Total Global Dominance & …
NATO Integration Accelerates as US Completes Vassalization of Europe | Nel Bonilla • NATO Integration Accelerates as US Complet…
The West Got Regime Changed by the Transatlantic Securitocracy | Nel Bonilla • The West Got Regime Changed by the Transat…
The West Is NOT Collapsing. It’s Rebuilding For Total War | Nel Bonilla • The West Is NOT Collapsing. It’s Rebuildin…
Mind Controlled Elites: Washington’s Cognitive War on Europe | Nel Bonilla • Mind Controlled Elites: Washington’s Cogni…
Recent appearances on other channels:
Webinar: NATO 3.0, featuring Nel Bonilla • Webinar: NATO 3.0, featuring Nel Bonilla
Nel Bonilla: Geopolitics as Team Sports (Where Has the Class Analysis Gone?) • Nel Bonilla: Geopolitics as Team Sports (W…
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Inquiries: jeff@theburningarchive.comTrump Should Be Removed If He’s Weighing Nuclear Use, Nukes on IRAN, Tucker Carlson Says – Iran Lego
BREAKING: Trump’s US Strikes Iran’s Larak Island, Tehran Hits Back at US Bases in Jordan — Iran Lego
Critical Thinking
CopilotIran’s “dozens of times greater” threat is rhetorical.
Iran cannot inflict damage proportional to the cost the U.S. spends defending.
The cost comparison shows a massive asymmetry:U.S. weekend cost: roughly $0.8B–$1.3B
Iran weekend cost: roughly $25M–$65M
The U.S. spent 15–40× more than Iran for the same weekend of exchanges.)
Iran’s “dozens of times greater” threat is rhetorical escalation
Iran often uses amplified language for deterrence:“Crushing response”
“Severe consequences”
“Dozens of times greater”These phrases appear in nearly every major IRGC statement after U.S. strikes.
Fact hint: Iran’s threat language is standardized propaganda, not a literal military plan.
This weekend’s exchange cost the U.S. roughly $1 billion.
It cost Iran roughly $40 million.The U.S. spent 15–40× more than Iran.
—————-
ClaudeThere are specific variables that shift the number a lot depending on what you choose to count:
**Scope of what counts as “cost”:**
– Munitions only? Or munitions + fuel + personnel hours + ISR/satellite time + interceptor use?
– Marginal cost of this weekend, or amortized cost of maintaining assets already forward-deployed for seven months? (This alone can swing a number 10x — a carrier group’s daily operating cost is enormous if you count it fully, near-zero marginal if you treat deployment as sunk.)
– Do you include second-order costs — insurance/shipping premiums from the Strait disruption, oil price effects, replacement/resupply of expended stock?**Unit price assumptions:**
– Which specific munition variant was used? A basic JDAM and a long-range stealth cruise missile can differ by an order of magnitude, and public reporting rarely specifies down to that level for a strike like this.
– Iran’s missile costs are especially uncertain — domestically produced, sanctioned economy, no market price, so estimates range widely depending on which analyst’s assumptions you use.**Confirmation bias baked into sourcing:**
– A U.S.-sourced or Pentagon-linked estimate will likely emphasize their assets’ cost differently than an Iranian or independent think-tank source. Same for casualty and damage claims, as we saw with the Jordan bases (IRGC says “heavy damage,” Jordan says “intercepted”).
– Whether you start with the $11B/six-days campaign-wide figure or try to isolate one weekend changes the ratio dramatically, as we saw earlier.**What this means practically:** any single number — mine, the text you first shared, or an official one when it eventually comes out — should be read as “here’s what it looks like under these specific assumptions,” not as the cost.
If you’re using this kind of estimate to argue policy (like the escalate/de-escalate question), the more defensible move is to state your assumptions explicitly and show how the conclusion holds up across a range, rather than anchoring on one point estimate.
———-nothing like National Security Secrets to keep a nation safe. Eyes Only and Need to Know. The rest of the world knows, just not US.
The US military is not a military in the convential sense. The US military are window dressers that produce a sales image for the citizens of the US. The prime part of the window dressing is terrorism that is justified by selling fear. The supreme violence is done in the financial sphere which is totally obfuscated from the citizenry.
The military’s second function is to keep the velocity of dollars up by supporting the MIC. The MIC is the largest and most sophisticated money laundering operation in the history of humanity
The media’s sole purpose is to create a desire driven mass hysteria.We are going to get left behind whether we cooperate of not. The US economy has been collapsing income bracket by income bracket since 1970. Think about the situation as if it were Arsenic and Old Lace. The poison killls slowly but you end up just as dead.
Think the ole cracker is crazy. Look at personal debt and what it means for sustaining some semblance of social order. Why do you think the entertainment on the moronoscope is what it is? The credit commercials are more suited to human consumption than the programing. Create a state of emotional unease and offer fleeting moments of fulfillment one trend at a time.
But………..it’s convenient! and free if you are a sucker.
Above my pay grade so I asked “Claude” to help.
Fetched: The $29 Trillion Debt Rollover Nightmare | Armstrong Economics
Read it. A quick note on the source, then the actual answer to your question.Source context: Martin Armstrong is a cyclical-forecasting analyst (his “Economic Confidence Model”) with a long-standing, consistent thesis about government debt being a “Ponzi structure” and pushing toward CBDCs/capital controls — he’s been writing versions of this argument for years. The underlying data he cites (OECD’s $29T 2026 borrowing figure, 78% being rollover not new financing) tracks with real OECD reporting; the framing around it (government as inherent threat, CBDC-as-trap) is his consistent editorial lens, not neutral analysis. Treat the hard numbers as generally real, the interpretive framing as his worldview.
Where to actually look first — the early-warning signals, in rough order of how fast they’d show up:
Bond auction results (fastest signal, days/weeks) — specifically the bid-to-cover ratio and tail (the gap between where the market expected a bond to price and where it actually cleared) on sovereign auctions, especially the U.S., Japan, UK, and France. A weak auction — low bid-to-cover, a big tail — is the first concrete sign that demand for rolling the debt forward is faltering. Japan’s auctions have already been flagged as the “first domino” candidate in Armstrong’s related pieces.
Long-end yields, specifically 30-year — watch the 30-year Treasury (and equivalents: UK gilts, JGBs, French OATs). Rising long yields despite central banks cutting or holding short rates is the classic sign the market is repricing sovereign risk independent of monetary policy — that decoupling is a tell.
The share of short-term vs. long-term issuance — if governments keep shifting toward short-maturity debt (T-bills over 10/30-year bonds) because long rates are too painful, that’s confirmation of the “trading today’s discomfort for tomorrow’s crisis” dynamic the article describes. This is usually reported in Treasury/DMO quarterly refunding announcements.
Central bank balance sheet data — continued quantitative tightening (central banks not buying, or actively selling) means private buyers (hedge funds, foreign investors) have to absorb more supply. Watch for reversal — any sign of central banks quietly returning to bond-buying is itself a signal that private demand failed.Sovereign CDS spreads — credit default swap pricing on countries under strain (Japan, UK, France, and emerging markets with dollar debt) will move before headlines catch up. A sudden widening is an early market judgment on rollover risk.
Currency weakness in the “repay in depreciated currency” countries — since the article’s endgame is currency debasement rather than formal default, a falling yen, pound, or euro against a basket (not just USD) alongside rising bond yields is the combination to watch — that pairing (weak currency + weak bonds simultaneously) is what signals a genuine confidence crisis rather than normal rate-driven currency moves.
Japan specifically — Armstrong’s related pieces (linked at the bottom of this article) name Japan as the likely first domino, given its debt-to-GDP ratio and BOJ’s own bond-buying retreat. That’d be the single country I’d watch most closely for an early, visible break.
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