May 30, 2023 at 9:07 am #135965Raúl Ilargi MeijerKeymaster
Vincent van Gogh A Lane near Arles (Side of a Country Lane) 1888 • Russia Hasn’t Started To ‘Act Seriously’ In Ukraine – Envoy (RT) • Moscow At
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle May 30 2023]May 30, 2023 at 10:22 am #135967RedParticipant
Models! Ha ha our lives are being run by AI for sum time now and they have yet to get it right.
After decades of experience proving that economists are wrong and that central bankers are the wrongest of all, how seriously should we take the latest IMF claims that the UK economy will avoid a recession? After all, even the establishment media have been keen to point out that the IMF appears to suffer from some pretty intense mood swings these days:
“The UK economy is expected to avoid a recession this year, the International Monetary Fund has said, after it sharply upgraded its growth forecast. It now expects the UK to grow by 0.4% in 2023, whereas last month it forecast the economy would contract by 0.3%.”
Ralph Schoellhammer at UnHerd points to the inconvenient truth that even in the current crisis alone, the IMF has built up a long list of erroneous forecasts. Moreover, much of the latest one – which points only to a growth rate that would be little more than a rounding error – is based on an optimistic understanding of the recent fall in gas prices following an exceptionally warm winter in the Northern hemisphere… taking no account of the warning from Saudi Arabian and Qatari energy ministers that Europe faces gas shortages and even higher gas prices. Indeed, what the IMF have given us is more likely a pseudo-forecast designed, like someone whistling in the dark, to keep our spirits up:
“A cautious observer would assume that the IMF wanted to increase economic confidence through a more upbeat outlook, which is understandable. Yet if experience is any guide, the next revision won’t be far away.”
In this, the IMF are far from unique. Western central bankers have been predicting “soft landings” and even no landing at all in recent months, even as they pursue interest rate rises which are – by definition – intended to generate the very recession that they keep pretending will not happen. It is notable, for example, that the apparent apology by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, for telling Brits that they were just going to have to accept being poorer, was for the way he said it rather than the intention behind his comment. As Bank Governor Andrew Bailey put it: “[His] choice of words was not right.”
Put simply, the central bankers are currently walking a tightrope between generating a managed recession – something they have never achieved – while maintaining sufficient public/political/business confidence to avoid it spiralling – 2008-style – into a full-blown economic collapse. Hence, the very last thing anyone wants is to have the Chief Economist wander off the reservation and tell everyone that they’re about to lose their shirts… and a lot more besides.
Insofar as their predecessors were attempting the same trick – and for much the same reasons – between 2006 and 2008, why on Earth would anybody trust them. After all, it is not as if we didn’t learn in the aftermath of that crash that the models that the economists use are so ungrounded in reality as to be positively dangerous… or – far worse – that the economists had no idea what money is or how it springs into existence. And while this latter has been partially fixed this time around, not one of them has the first idea how the international Eurodollar system operates to generate even more currency than domestic banks do via a similar process of issuing loans.
Might there, perhaps, be far better predictors of a coming recession than the clearly unreliable models used by economists? Certainly, the proprietary data available to the big corporate investors have proved reliable every time. And their collective response can be found in the inverted yields on government bonds which – for the first time in history – have been simultaneously inverted across the western states. Only once, in the mid-1960s, has a yield curve inversion not been followed by a recession. And even this can be misleading, because the 1960s inversion was followed by an eight-point fall in GDP.
In a similar manner, business surveys are likely to be more accurate, as they tell us what is happening today, and what steps business managers are taking in response. Purchasing Managers surveys – which have been lacklustre at best in the last year – pointed to a big decline in new orders, which we now see in falling global demand for both manufactured goods and raw commodities.
Closer to home, a recent ACAS/YouGov survey has found that a third of UK businesses expect to lay-off workers over the coming year:
“The poll revealed that two in five (41%) large businesses are likely to make redundancies and one in five (20%) small and medium sized (SME) businesses said that were likely to do so.”
While the lower figure for small businesses may appear to give grounds for optimism, they may rather reflect the inability of a small business to lose workers without rendering the business itself unworkable. That is, these businesses are more likely to go into administration or be bankrupted.
Unfortunately, one of the things driving central bank optimism over the likely impact of interest rate rises is that we have not experienced widespread unemployment… yet. But this points to one of humanity’s fundamental evolutionary flaws – we cannot process time. Unemployment doesn’t rise immediately after an interest rate rise, but only after a long process of adjustment which may involve businesses seeking to absorb additional costs and/or pass them on to consumers, cutting workers’ hours, and even converting previous employment into self-employment. There is also the confounding impact of fixed-interest loans, which mean that it is only when a loan comes up for renewal after two or three years – as is also common with mortgages – that the full impact of rate rises has to be managed… one reason why it was foolish of the central banks to raise rates as quickly as they have done.
There are though, even less likely – but arguably more grounded – places to look to find the earliest signs of an impending crisis. My own example of this was on the evening of 31 December 2007. The large number of additional revellers on New Years Eve in the early years of the century caused pubs in the UK to develop a ticketing system – enforced by hired security – which favoured their regular customers… fair enough. Although it meant that those of us only visiting for the holiday struggled to find a pub that wasn’t overcrowded or guarded by bouncers. On 31 December 2007, it all changed. The pubs were almost empty, and on more than one occasion the bouncers happily steered us into the pub.
To put this into economic terms, going out on New Year’s Eve is a very discretionary activity. And so, large numbers of pubs and restaurants having to turn people away due to overcrowding is a pretty sure sign of a booming economy – people have more than enough disposable cash. By the end of 2007 though, after two years of rising energy prices, and the knock-on impact on general prices, together with a series of interest rate rises, the disposable cash had dried up. And yet the official data at the time pointed to a still thriving economy. People hadn’t stopped spending; they had merely adapted – spending more on essentials and less on discretionary items. And then, as now, unemployment was nowhere to be seen. But just nine months later, we were in the grip of a banking collapse which threatened to crash the entire global economy.
Nor is spending on beer and curry the only real-world indicator of bad times ahead. As early as last summer, workers in US strip clubs began to notice a big fall in spending, with one strip club manager reporting that “customers are handing out more fivers than $20 bills these days.” This prompted some media interest in “the stripper index” as a better predictor of the state of the economy than any model dreamed up by an economist. And, as Wilfred Chan at the Guardian reported in February, stripping is not the only real-world activity immediately sensitive to changes in the economy:
“A more contemporary indicator might be found in online dating apps, which also perform well during downturns. During recessions people stay at home more; they don’t want to pay and go to bars… That appears to be the case again today. In November 2022, Match Group, which owns Tinder and Hinge, reported a 2% increase in paying subscribers across its brands, with a 7% jump for Tinder alone.
“Recently on social media, some people have pointed to other new indicators, like the number of people giving up on their blond-dyed hair, nicknamed ‘recession brunettes.’ Maintaining a high-quality salon dye treatment can cost as much as $200 a month – a tough ask when money’s tight…
“But some indicators could be even more mundane. The economist and software executive Tony Nash tells me he opened the fridge at his shared office this week and realized there was no room to put his tuna fish sandwich. That was a far cry from a few months ago, when the office was nearly as full, but the fridge was luxuriously empty. He had started bringing his own lunches a few months earlier to save money, and if his workmates were now doing the same, he wonders, could the office fridge’s occupancy be a recession indicator?”
At the seedier ends of what is euphemistically referred to as the sex industry, there are growing signs of a big economic downturn ahead. As Lauren Crosby Medlicott at the Metro reported earlier this year:
“With much of the UK in financial turmoil, there is barely an industry that hasn’t been affected by the cost-of-living crisis – and that includes sex workers. That’s why a new grassroots coalition of sex worker-led organisations, Hookers Against Hardship, is raising awareness and demanding change regarding their specific experiences…
“‘The cost-of-living crisis is having a terrible effect on sex workers,’ explains Niki Adams, of the campaign group English Collective of Prostitutes, which recorded a 30% jump last year in the number of callers seeking support for starting sex work…”
In the recession of the early 1980s – long before the internet and mobile phones – prostitution was far more visible on the streets of every city’s red light district. And while street prostitution persists, in the internet age, most prostitution goes on out of sight via websites like Adultwork. As Alexandra Heal and Anna Gross at the Financial Times explained last December:
“Five of the 23 sex workers interviewed say they returned to the sector in 2022 after years away from it and that rising living costs wholly or partly influenced their move. It is widely accepted that most sex workers are women, although male sex work has risen in recent years with the rise of casual selling on platforms such as Grindr and Instagram.
“An FT analysis of all 21,000 UK escort profiles on the prominent site Adultwork.com suggests three times as many people joined this year as in 2019…”
The important point about all of these indicators, from sex work to shampoo, is that they are leading. They point to real things which are changing here and now. In contrast, much of the data used by economists and central bankers are backward-looking, and only pick up the impact of these real-world changes long after the economy has passed a point of no-return.
Perhaps if Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill could be persuaded to pay a visit to their local strip club, or at least drop in at the Bank of England’s admin department to check how many packed lunches are in the office fridge, they might be a little less gung-ho about jacking up interest rates and a little less confident in the – inevitably wrong – predictions being made by the economists.May 30, 2023 at 10:56 am #135968Just Some RandomerParticipant
Oh No! A super-healthy fitness instructor and model who was also a frontline nurse during Covid and therefore presumable super-vaxxed.
“Ms Fitzgerald, of Mulcair Road, Raheen Heights and Finnitstown, Adare, Co Limerick, “passed away unexpectedly on 27th May 2023” read an obituary posted online.”
Completely normal.May 30, 2023 at 11:17 am #135969Dr. DParticipant
“US Building New Base in Northern Syria , The construction demonstrates that the US has no plans to leave Syria”
Must always mention in the same breath that it is on top of the pipeline route. To Europe. To they are all in on it.
“doctors could be accused of spreading misinformation if they provided
adviceevidence contrary to the official information.”
That is to say, “Science”. And “Medicine”.
“The former commander of the Australian special forces,”
I’m sure that means he doesn’t know anything. Just like when every leader, every whistleblower, every insider, every President tells you the same. But they, like Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, and Trump, have access to intel you can’t dream of, tells you directly on TV this is happening…well, they’re only joking! YOU, little person working at Peebles stocking shelves, actually know much better what is happening or isn’t, right?
…Talk about hubris.
That Trojan horse Cartoon can’t be right: McCarthy still has his pants up.
“Trans people will always exist”. I guess? And yet: who cares? I can assure you, exactly NO ONE stays awake nights worrying about that. That was never the point. At all. And they’re so “Socially Intelligent” it’s the DAY JOB to know advertising, markets, etc, that they haven’t the faintest idea what people are mad about with Dylan n’ stuff? Newsflash: it’s not that he’s trans, it’s not that he’s gay. NO ONE CARES. So go back to your room and think really hard about what you’ve done. Maybe a dim bulb will go on sometime.
What I was thinking and what brought this up though, was the realization they can’t get the race war started. Even after 60 years of keeping it warm with Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and literal CIA/FBI paid operatives such as BLM (we have the leaked check stubs now), even with 100% of the media, even with PAYING thousands of protesters to show up from Craigslist, they got nothing, and NOW is when they need it. They’ve got some generalized chaos, sure, but not enough and also no direction and goals to use, AND no white backlash to use. They need power, motion, momentum, to steer the ship or it’s adrift in the tide — don’t care whose. They don’t have this necessary tool to control the revolution…even after causing it, buying it with money. And, Herr Docktor?
THAT IS WHY THEY MOVED TO TRANS. Heck, they couldn’t even get the gay community to shoot people since this is the most gay-tolerant society in like 10 centuries. The top people like Brandon Straka ARE gay. We’ve got gay (trans) whistleblowers, and a President who openly approves of gay marriage and no one cares. So THAT’S a bust. Total zero. The Social Engineers lost again, got nothing, can’t control things which are just happening out there, without them, and eventually will run them the f—k over, ruining their present power and paychecks. No more Epstein Island for you! Then how are you going to rape my daughter at Minnesota Band Camp? Sadness, sadness everywhere.
And? Herr Docktor? This is what they’re reduced to. So THEY added the “T” to “LGB – T — “ since I don’t remember there being a committee about it, nobody asked us, nobody voted. Just one day: There it was! “Trans”, a logical premise that ERASES gayness, gay rights, right there AS gay rights. Poof! Document opens: Lie appears. Paid for LAVISHLY….ENDLESSLY. Why? …Just as “P” is being added everywhere, for Pedo, right now. As if Gay people want to be brothered up to pedos and that will go well and safely for them, W. T. F.??? Gay groups actively stand up and say “Um no,” and are immediately attacked by the NY Times. Whhhhhyyy???
Anyway, you can see in all these ad campaigns – Newsom for example – that if TRANS people aren’t blown on the streets by every passing CIS person, then “You’re Next!!!!!!!!!!!!” “This is what they want!!!!” he says. What do they want, exactly? Spell it out, I’m a little stupid. Well if you don’t give free health care and hand jobs to Trans people, all the gay people will be killllllllllledddd! What? What the actual? No.
“And not just the Gay people,” Newsome continues, “but all the women and black people too!!!!!” This is Target!!
Okay, Gavin, let me get this straight, because I’m having trouble hearing through all the drugs you’ve been smoking: If we don’t allow guillotines saying “Homophobe Harvest” and “Hail Satan” on the shelves of Target, the next step is Target will outlaw and stop selling…Womens Clothes? Are you for actual real right now? You’re not high?
…THEN they’re going to stop selling and outlaw BLACK clothes for people…whatever THEY are?
Then the GOP is going to round up all the WOMEN into…help me here, you’re being vague…cattle cars and concentration camps, including all the HIGHLY ARMED Southern Conservative women?
Are you High, or just really stupid? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZeewlhHPJg
So the best they can do – the BEST – as everyone IN America is ALREADY bi-tri-racial, everyone IN America already knows and are friends/family with gay people, is to create a Trans thing, out of nothing, sub 1%, then tie on with baling wire and duct tape like a 49% of the population or something as “Oh I dunno, if trans can’t (insert some mouth-words here) then some of y’all as well.”
Let me guess this isn’t going to work. And why I had such a hard time even figuring out what they were up to, because, sir, IT IS STUPID. Even American people aren’t stupid enough for this Stupid. This is Newsom-level Stupid. This is “Starting a Land War in Asia” stupid. …Oh, wait… Maybe “Arming Taiwan with nuclear weapons” stupid. …Oh, wait.
But that’s what they’re up to. Look at the very precise verbage they’re using, seen quite neatly over at Target. Weirdo people and their weirdo religion … of stupid. The Church of the Endless Stupid.
“Borrell handed himself a new job: “the defense minister of the European Union.”
Like they needed Americans to be disarmed when they opened all our prisons and let rapists free, the EU needed a pan-Euro army by now. Like here, over in Europe the people said “No.” They have no army, no way to get one, so they lost. Because they’re losers.
Instead, Borrell PRETENDS he’s the (non)head of an army they don’t have! An “Army of One”, except he won’t go.
““There was a time in America that we were this way: fighting to the last person, we were going to be free or die.”
Yes, but we Americans fight to the last person…against the GOVERNMENT. Not against like, German-speakers or something. Or what you do: fighting to the last person, to KILL the last OTHER person. All against All, leaving you on top, eating Wagu beef flown in on your private jet, in peace.
“• Biden, McCarthy Agree on $886 Billion Military Budget (Antiwar)
Anything else you need to know?
“• US Obsession With Crushing Russia Has Dismantled Middle East Agenda (Inlakesh)
Gee, if we had a President who brokered major Middle Eastern Peace deals, we could have got ahead of this, couldn’t we?
Now if only we had someone, even years ago, who would pass tariffs that would return manufacturing and jobs to black and low-income workers, we wouldn’t be entirely helpless before Russia.
DisinformationFacts is one of the gravest threats weighing on our democracies,” Barrot told France Info “ Fixed it. If I told you the Truth, you wouldn’t do what I want. The decision was clear. I wanted your stuff and you wouldn’t give it to me. Like your daughters.
“John Cleese Holds Line Against Calls to Cancel Scene in Life of Brian (Turley)
“Where’s he going to keep the fetus, in a BOX???” I’ll retract the joke when you can answer the question.
CO2: I bet they are waaaay off on the CO2 numbers and a huge number comes out of volcanoes we are only now realizing exist. “Are they seriously proposing”? Yes. Yes they are. They are seriously proposing killing all your kids, and in fact have done so already. And you helped.
Gymnastics: People still finding whole new horizons to break open. Before the 4 minute mile, before Parkour, before standing backflips, they said none of this could be done. No one even THOUGHT of it being done. Yet do it a little, and it’s easy. There are “Age of Aquarius” reasons for that I won’t get into.
Now…about growing that food and leaving your neighbors alone… Possible as the 4-minute mile?May 30, 2023 at 12:25 pm #135970Basseterre KitonaParticipant
The former commander of the Australian special forces, Ricardo Bosi, made a sensational statement: “Ukraine has been the center of globalists for decades … The CIA has been working in Ukraine for 70 years” pic.twitter.com/i5brJS2t3i
— Spriter (@Spriter99880) May 29, 2023
What most people do not understand is that the entire Eastern Europe / Russian operations of the CIA were built off of the legacy of the Germans eastern intelligence operations at the conclusion of WWII (also approximately the same time as CIA establishment). Look into Reinhard Gehlen and his Fremde Heere Ost organization including both pre-war and post-war activities.
As crazy as it sounds, the American intelligence apparatus has significant Nazi roots in Eastern Europe and—once that is understood—then much of the current affairs in Ukraine make perfect sense.May 30, 2023 at 1:06 pm #135971
Twitter should be banned for distributing information. Hahahaha
(Contrary to Lindsay Graham’s untoward utterance, American money has killed far more Ukrainians than Russians.)
Graham on video in Ukraine 7 years ago telling them “It’s time to go on the offense against Russia and promising US weapons” and now recently saying “Russians are dying, it’s the best money we’ve ever spent”, lets you know that the US plan was always to hurt Russia, not help Ukraine
6:48 AM · May 29, 2023
·31.8K ViewsMay 30, 2023 at 1:31 pm #135972oxymoronParticipant
There’s a lyric in one of my Rap’s – “smash small biz then need the state…” Target and Budd and all the rest going down is another chess move just like the business closures. It is an inside job. They want to Build Back Better. There are just too many collapsees – fertiliser factories, Nord pipes, Sally’s garden cafe – you name it. Amish are getting harassed by Govt. etc.
They want full-blown dependence so they can cut losses and then manage – fourth industrial revolution is actually a demo job.
There is no way this is just herd mentality in advertising. No one hates money that much.May 30, 2023 at 1:55 pm #135973oxymoronParticipant
Oh shit I went to Wynnum High School! Crazy what you find on TAE. Mom moved us out of low-income govt housing when I was 10 and got us to Moreton Bay. Beautiful place to spend those years.
Also thanks for the AI overdub for the turtle video – the most I’ve laughed in minutes.May 30, 2023 at 5:16 pm #135975
John Rubino interview – latest:
F.S.May 30, 2023 at 5:20 pm #135976DoraParticipantMay 30, 2023 at 6:42 pm #135977
I assume that Russia knows where the Ukrainian leaderships are located, ( their offices), during the daytime and that during the night, they are sleeping in bunkers. Therefore, it is logical that missiles attacks would be done during the daytime.May 30, 2023 at 6:42 pm #135978John DayParticipant
@Zerosum: Thanks for posting this Ukraine war update last night: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52923-kiev-rocked-as-new-satellite
@Dr.D: We drove very close to Marlin,Texas Saturday. (85% non-grads). My wife, Jenny (School Librarian) looked up the stats. Something like 71% of households did not have internet, and about 63% did not have a computer. It’s a rural town of about6400in East Texas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlin,_Texas
It might be an ok place.May 30, 2023 at 7:24 pm #135979
Putin Confirms Russian Strike on Ukrainian Military Intel HQ in Kiev
Earlier, Ukrainian media reported that the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense had been hit in an overnight Russian missile strike. The strike followed a series of threats by senior Main Intelligence Directorate officials to “kill Russians” around the world.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that Russia carried out an attack on the headquarters of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry in Kiev.
“Since the start of the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces are striking Ukraine, but using high-precision weapons. They are targeting military infrastructure, arms depots and other targets that could be used for military action,” Putin said, speaking to a reporter at an economic exhibition on Tuesday.
“We’ve already mentioned that we can strike decision-making centers and headquarters. Obviously, the Military Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s headquarters is also such a target. And in response, as you are well aware, the Kiev regime chose a different path, a path to try to intimidate Russia and its citizens, to try to target residential buildings. It is an obvious indicator of terrorist activity,” Putin said, referring to Tuesday morning’s attempted drone attack on the Russian capital.May 30, 2023 at 9:09 pm #135980kultsommerParticipant
John Rubino interview
Financiers are the only ones that deliver grave news with ear to ear smile.
Kosovo – 43 years old saga:
Right after the Tito’s death in May of 1980, Kosovar Albanians “discovered” that they’ve been oppressed and decided to express that with numerous massive strikes and disobedience of all sorts. Break-up of Yugoslavia was their moment when they did armed provocations against the Serbs knowing that there will be a response and used that as an excuse to call “literal uncle” Sam for help. Serbian ally Russia, at the time of NATO overtake was weak and on life support itself to intervene other than short and symbolic hold of Pristina airport. The rest was, as saying goes, a history.May 30, 2023 at 9:29 pm #135981kultsommerParticipant
CONSENT FACTORY, INC. – C. J.Hopkins
Excerpt from the article link that brings memories of dealing with Dr D and jb-hb and few others in the comment section:
A lot of these folks don’t see it that way, because they do not want to face the fact that what they are resisting is global capitalism, so they call it other names like “crony capitalism,” “corporatism,” or “cultural Marxism.” I don’t really care what they call it, except when they call it “communism,” which just makes them sounds extremely silly.
I could not have said it better, especially that last sentence.
One more think to add. Have “those two” ever notice that China in regular talk is simply China, however when the country is to put into really negative connotation it is always referred as communist China.
All coming from a “would-be friendly associate” apparently overtook by the commies?May 30, 2023 at 9:30 pm #135982
Sergey Lavrov calls the desire of Ukraine nazis, genocide. I call it depopulation?
Answer to a media question at a joint news conference between Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Development Cooperation of the Republic of Burundi Ahmed Shingiro following talks
1045-30-05-2023May 30, 2023 at 11:17 pm #135983
Fantastic news out of Alberta, Canada.
Meaningless event, … Canada’s Federal Government runs the show, … provincial not so! Just a proverbial foaming on part of junior politicos!
Anyway, UCP was in power during the pandemic ( this was just re-election of the same tyrants) and my freedom was restricted severely back than and my family members who were vaccinated, … their freedoms were infringement upon just about as mine, … fwiw
F.S.May 31, 2023 at 1:04 am #135984CelticbikerParticipant
How, in the name of Christ, can people not see or understand who is behind this destruction? Wale up Goyim, the chew wants you dead. Your children are being murdered. Personally, I’m tired of going to funerals…what will it take for people to open their eyes? Who can you not criticize? This is who owns you. The chew is evil, demonic and pshychopathic, that is the world you now are in. Take a real good look around at the kosher nightmare . Do you want to be buried in a box or a slave to the cheworldorder?May 31, 2023 at 5:45 am #135985
Following is via ConsortiumNews – Patrick Lawrence:
Lennart Meri Lecture 2023 by Fiona Hill
You may want to read it first, … or just skip it and read Patrick’s take on it at:
Deaf, but Not Blind to US Decline
F.S.May 31, 2023 at 1:12 pm #136005
@ Figmund Sreud
Patrick Lawrence is Wrong
Blind or stupid are not the explanations we are looking for. Deafness and denial are.
The MSM and elites are lying, misdirecting, and ignoring the observations of the bloggers.June 16, 2023 at 6:56 am #136991
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