SmokeyRocks
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@ Dr. John Day
I looked at the Israeli data last night and again today and I think you might have been confused by an apparent error in labelling the tables. The numbers 301 and 214 are the raw numbers of hospitalized patients, not the cases/100K as the table heading indicates. As far as I can tell, his approach is correct and the numbers should be adjusted for vax rate and age. Also, his math seems to work out.
One problem I have with this analysis is the use of relative risk reduction numbers without mentioning the absolute numbers. This practice makes the vaccines seem more efficacious than they truly are. The way the equations are set up, if the risk of being hospitalized is low, the ARR will be low as well regardless of the RRR value. So I have tried to compute the absolute values:
In the second table (all ages) 214 of 1.3 M unvaxxed (U) and 301 of 5.6 M vaxxed (V) are in the hospital representing 0.016% of the U population and 0.005% of the V population. ARR then is 0.016 – 0.005 = 0.011%. Not what I’d call a big increase in risk reduction.
In the fifth table the data is broken out by age. For under 50, there are 43 cases out of 1.1M for ~0.004% of the U population and 11 out of 3.5M for 0.0003% of the V population. This gives an ARR of 0.004 – 0.0003 = 0.0037%.
The vaccines do better in the over 50 category. For unvaxxed there are 171/186K or 0.09% while for vaxxed I get 290/2.1M = 0.013% for an ARR of 0.09 – 0.013 = 0.077%. Still not a huge increase in absolute terms IMO.Two other things I’d note. First, I believe most if not all of these patients got the Pfizer vax so it may not say anything about the other brands. I pity the fool who has to try to make sense of the worldwide data later on.
Second, one potential problem with the Simpson’s thing is that by dividing the data into sub-groups it seems that you’re essentially lowering the sample size. I’m not enuf of a stats guy to say how important that is, but overall, this data set is only 500 people and may not be entirely representative of the broader population.
BTW John, a week or two ago you posted a link to a video on mass psychoses which I greatly appreciated. Thanks for that.
Yesterday YouTube threw up this video of Brian Williams of MSNBC quoting Carl Sagan which I found interesting:
Part of the quote reads
“I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.”This starts at ~2:25. “… when the people have lost the ability to … knowledgeably question those in authority…” I wonder if Brian realizes how ironic this is coming from MSNBC. I also wonder why this hasn’t been censored yet.
Esteemed Raúl Ilargi Meijer, thank you for this wonderful website which has become my go-to source for Covid info. And to put my money where my mouth is, I’ve started a recurring donation. Also, thanks to all the fine commenters who have led me to other sources of <i>reliable</i> information about the virus. Thank you one and all.
