August 19, 2021 at 10:19 pm #84632Bill7Participant
Another here who thinks laffin boy’s got it mostly right.
“click here to dissent” is not going to work, I think.
B7August 19, 2021 at 10:21 pm #84633Bill7Participant
The ‘net is *their* playing field.August 19, 2021 at 10:27 pm #84634SmokeyRocksParticipant
@ Dr. John Day
I looked at the Israeli data last night and again today and I think you might have been confused by an apparent error in labelling the tables. The numbers 301 and 214 are the raw numbers of hospitalized patients, not the cases/100K as the table heading indicates. As far as I can tell, his approach is correct and the numbers should be adjusted for vax rate and age. Also, his math seems to work out.
One problem I have with this analysis is the use of relative risk reduction numbers without mentioning the absolute numbers. This practice makes the vaccines seem more efficacious than they truly are. The way the equations are set up, if the risk of being hospitalized is low, the ARR will be low as well regardless of the RRR value. So I have tried to compute the absolute values:
In the second table (all ages) 214 of 1.3 M unvaxxed (U) and 301 of 5.6 M vaxxed (V) are in the hospital representing 0.016% of the U population and 0.005% of the V population. ARR then is 0.016 – 0.005 = 0.011%. Not what I’d call a big increase in risk reduction.
In the fifth table the data is broken out by age. For under 50, there are 43 cases out of 1.1M for ~0.004% of the U population and 11 out of 3.5M for 0.0003% of the V population. This gives an ARR of 0.004 – 0.0003 = 0.0037%.
The vaccines do better in the over 50 category. For unvaxxed there are 171/186K or 0.09% while for vaxxed I get 290/2.1M = 0.013% for an ARR of 0.09 – 0.013 = 0.077%. Still not a huge increase in absolute terms IMO.
Two other things I’d note. First, I believe most if not all of these patients got the Pfizer vax so it may not say anything about the other brands. I pity the fool who has to try to make sense of the worldwide data later on.
Second, one potential problem with the Simpson’s thing is that by dividing the data into sub-groups it seems that you’re essentially lowering the sample size. I’m not enuf of a stats guy to say how important that is, but overall, this data set is only 500 people and may not be entirely representative of the broader population.
BTW John, a week or two ago you posted a link to a video on mass psychoses which I greatly appreciated. Thanks for that.August 19, 2021 at 10:28 pm #84635sumac.carolParticipant
On the idea of whether or not this pandemic is intentional and whether or not the elites know what they are doing: I am reminded that our elites have done several things, aside from their response to covid, that set us on a course of self-destruction. In particular, our elites have encouraged uncontrolled use of fossil fuels leading to life-ending climate change. They have created material inequality through unfair economic policies, shortening the lives of those who have to eek out an existence with so few resources. Our elites have allowed the steady destruction of our agricultural soils and the health of all life forms (including ourselves) by permitting glyphosate to be ubiquitously used everywhere. Our elites have also allowed uncontrolled production of all sorts of synthetic ‘forever’ chemicals, many of which are toxic to numerous life forms because they are not natural. These are examples of things the elites have actually done. It does not include the hypotheticals, such as the development of nuclear and other super weapons (even bio-weapons) that could render our planet uninhabitable should someone decide to press the button or release the bug.
All of these examples convince me that COVID, and the elite response to it, is not on an island of its own and it is instead one example among many of actions our elites have undertaken that put us all on a path of self-destruction. This is not new.August 19, 2021 at 10:34 pm #84636sumac.carolParticipant
I would add that, just like the COVID jab that we are being virtually forced to accept, people have almost no options to avoid climate change impacts, nor can they easily outrun unequal economic policies. Similarly, over time it becomes more and more difficult to avoid pollution from the chemical stew we all live in. See? Covid is business as usual for our elites. Make some money and hope everything does not come crashing down on your watch.August 19, 2021 at 11:09 pm #84637Veracious PoetParticipant
Hahahaha! General Milley. His very name is a joke. Okay, you and your staff didn’t realize it. Fine with me: you’re all fired. We are replacing you with all the generals and colonels that DID see it. War is hell. Bye bye.
After that, we fire every doctor spokesperson that got every single thing related to Covid wrong, and replace them with every one who got it right. Or even bridge trolls from random websites, who predicted everything while eating Cheetos, half-reading and half-asleep. It wasn’t that hard.
That’s great hyperbole, to bad sooo sad that 90%+ of that We equation relies upon Twits that spend their days absorbed by Fakebook, MSNBC/FOX, porn, video games & other rune’s of online mental masturbation ~ THEY have control of the F15s & nukes, + all the brain-dead drones in the #DerpSwamp…
Oh, don’t forget about all those UAV human control drones that Obama allowed the .MIL blood lust thugs to perfect on urban targets ~ Oops, we’re sorry for all that collateral damage, but we had terr’ists to hunt.
Nope, as has been the case for the last 50+ years the proles will roll over for their masters to rip out their bellies, just like Wedid for the last 18 months where mass murderers + election stealing traitors didn’t even find We to be a speed bump.
What you propose would require nothing less than Divine intervention, which no one is willing to even remember or consider ~ Who’s on Dancing with da Stars tonight?
Also, I don’t think there’s nary an American on TAE. Would anyone here shed a tear if We were all dead tomorrow?
EOTAugust 19, 2021 at 11:31 pm #84638VietnamVetParticipant
Your addendum is absolutely true.
All of the forever wars are contract black holes transferring wealth to the global overlords. But never mentioned, for good reason, in corporate propaganda is that the 11-day victory of the Taliban was not the end of a civil war, it was a victory of ethnic religious mountain peoples over enslavement by global corporate/state invaders and their local puppets.
Good government is necessary for civilization to endure. Neo-liberal-cons destroyed American government to get power and riches. With the collapsing of the Western Empire, unless the global criminals are jailed and the rule of law restored; chaos due to climate change, supply shortages and illness will engulf North America. There are Hillbillies in the USA too.August 19, 2021 at 11:35 pm #84639D Benton SmithParticipant
ref : ” Would anyone here shed a tear if We were all dead tomorrow?”
Well I, for one, would be very VERY sad. I would shed a tear, if I could, but of course I would be dead and all that so literal tears might be a little difficult.August 19, 2021 at 11:45 pm #84640absolute galoreParticipant
Maybe they only give the Covid hospital payouts now if the patient is vaccinated?
So you can lose your license to practice medicine if you go against the machine, but it’s okay to publicly admit you won’t treat unvaxxed covid patients because you’re squeamish? Dying of covid if your vaccinated isn’t so bad? Which I guess is true because we had similar evidence yesterday, of a doctor saying of a patient who died, it would have been a lot worse had they not been vaccinated.August 19, 2021 at 11:45 pm #84641absolute galoreParticipant
you’reAugust 19, 2021 at 11:53 pm #84642Figmund SreudParticipant
It’s most likely a new trend:
F.S.August 19, 2021 at 11:54 pm #84643
Every time we tell ourselves how powerful and evil are TPTB, the more we aggrandize them in our minds into something inevitable and invincible.
“We will not mourn……what we haven’t yet lost, we will learn to row with the oars we’ve got.” (Stuart Adamson)August 19, 2021 at 11:56 pm #84644August 20, 2021 at 12:12 am #84645Mister RobotoParticipant
3. Some people believe that the vaccine will have serious side effects… There are people who have died after taking the vaccine, but there is no causal link established between vaccination and dying.
Oh please, please, please just fuck right off!August 20, 2021 at 12:15 am #84646phoenixvoiceParticipant
Welcome to the ranks of the (truly) immune!
From now on, whether you wear a mask or not, you don’t need to have covid worries for yourself or others.
From now on, your own immune system will likely manage with ease any covid particles that you encounter.
From now on, you will not fit into either the “vaccinated box” nor the “unvaccinated” box.
May you find the new perspective a refreshing as I have these past 10 months.August 20, 2021 at 12:48 am #84647those darned kidsParticipant
phoenix: there are four serotypes of the dengue virus. if you’ve had one, you still can catch the other three. my wife (made of resillium!) has had three of them, each time worse.
i do hope covid-13 is not the same, and that her (and mine) – yep, she’s had that, too – immunity is long-lasting and broad. cross your toes.August 20, 2021 at 12:59 am #84648citizenxParticipant
“They better get vaxxed then, so they can spread it too.”
Haha… Thanks for the vax laugh !
-delta vax face employee- “the delta got me but I didn’t give it to anyone” (psst where’d you get it- shhh nevermind that)
-vaxed customer- “phew, good thing you were vaxxed”
Can’t make this shit up, Monty Python please.
Reporting in from Seattle. Spent a few hours downtown today going to an interview. It’s pretty desolate down thar. Interviewed at a spot where they have two restaurants, both currently closed, trying to re-staff and re-open after “Labor Day” (haha labor day). They have been holding off re-opening waiting and hoping that the work from home crowd will once again return back downtown to work and dine.
I spoke with a bar patron Sunday night who got the official word last Friday that Nordstroms officially announced they were closing their offices and it would be a permanent work from home policy going forward. Spoke with multiple downtown owners all hoping Amazon clown employees would be ordered back to the offices so they will dine out downtown. Outlook bleak.
….and fuck face Insleeeeeze rules as King Gov that masks are back on bitches, and all yous teecherz must now get jabbed to protect, um, protect… err nevermind. Just do what I say, I’m the Gov- and don’t think for 1 second you fully vaxxd are excused- time for YOUR boosters bitches.
Yep, exodus to Idaho or Montana for me on the radar. Fleeing Wa state after 32 years here. Time to do some research on where to live and getting a job in Id or Mt…
I was born in Queens NY, Papers Please…August 20, 2021 at 1:02 am #84649OroborosParticipant
University In Connecticut To Fine, Block Internet Access To Unvaxx’d Students
Students at Connecticut’s Quinnipiac University will be fined up to $2,275 and lose internet access if they fail to comply with the university’s COVID-19 vaccination policies.
It’s bad enough the Education Racket will put students into unpayable debt but they want them to take the Clot Shot and ruin their health.August 20, 2021 at 1:02 am #84650OroborosParticipantAugust 20, 2021 at 1:10 am #84651Figmund SreudParticipant
Dr. Richard Fleming relentlessly is spreading his views:
‘ SARS-CoV-2 is a Gain-of-Function Bio-weapon and not a vaccine’
F.S.August 20, 2021 at 1:34 am #84652V. ArnoldParticipant
I was born in Queens NY, Papers Please…
So was I…
Living in Oregon (45 yrs) when I ended up out of work. A job came up in Thailand working for a US toy company; I took the job.
18 years on and still here; quit the job after 1 year; best decision I ever made; all things considered…August 20, 2021 at 2:10 am #84653Doc RobinsonParticipant
Some background and perspective on Afghanistan from Ted Rall, who made a couple trips there, independent and unembedded, during the past 20 years.
I declared Afghanistan unwinnable in 2001 and have since authored three books explaining why. To my knowledge, I remain the only syndicated columnist or editorial cartoonist in America who thinks we should get out of Afghanistan as well as Iraq.
How did I know the Afghan War would go bad? Many factors entered my analysis, but two incidents I witnessed in November 2001 crystallized my pessimistic point of view.
The first was the way Afghans of various political and ethnic affiliations treated one of my fellow journalists, a Russian radio correspondent who had served in the Soviet army that occupied Afghanistan in the 1980s. They loved him! I asked them why. “We love Russian people,” they’d say. “But you killed them mercilessly,” I’d reply. “Of course,” they’d explain. “They were invaders. Invaders must be killed.” What about Americans? “Of course, Americans too,” they’d say, a little sadly. “After we kill them all, however, they are welcome to come back as tourists and friends.”
The second incident took place on a dirt road in Khanabad, where I noticed a group of Afghan Tajiks, including an old guy with a long beard, weeping quietly in the street. A couple of U.S. soldiers had kicked down a door and were inside a house, presumably searching for weapons.
“During Soviet times, under the Taliban, even during the civil war, no one dared break into a man’s home,” the old man told me. “No one. Even if the Taliban came to execute you, they knocked on the door politely and waited for you to come outside.” I knew we weren’t going to win then and there. Word of the Americans’ treatment of Afghan men—flexicuffing them, grinding their faces into the dirt with their boots, placing bags over their heads—spread quickly. Battles were still raging in Kunduz and Kandahar between the U.S.’s allies and Taliban holdouts, but the Americans had already lost the war for hearts and minds.
What went wrong? How did a war marketed as a defensive police action to bring terrorists to justice (and, as an added bonus, liberate millions of oppressed women) lose its moral imperative so quickly? Why did so many Americans—including millions who would later march in the streets to protest the Iraq War—fail to see that it had been lost?
It is impossible for a citizen of the United States of America to understand what it’s like to live in a place without law and order. In the Land of the Free, rogue policemen harass black drivers, sell drugs, even rape suspects with broomsticks. Our president violates basic civil rights, going so far as to sign off on torture. But even in the most dangerous neighborhoods in the most crime-ridden cities in the U.S., law and order exists. If you shoot someone, a witness will almost certainly call the police, who will come as quickly as possible to take you to jail.
This is not true in Afghanistan. When I was there during the late fall of 2001, my Afghan translator expressed amazement at my suggestion that we meet for dinner at 6 p.m. “That’s after dark,” he said. “We will be killed.” I asked him what the odds were of encountering trouble. “No odds,” he replied. “Death is certain.” Like most Afghans, Jovid had never been outside the confines of a walled compound with reinforced bulletproof doors at night.
Unchallenged street violence makes other issues recede in importance. I watched a boy—he couldn’t have been older than 15—level his AK-47 and fire randomly into a group of women walking across a village square in Kunduz province. Bouncing in the back of a shockless Soviet pick-up truck, my eyes met those of my traveling companions—heavily armed Northern Alliance soldiers, Afghan Tajiks, fellow reporters. No one said a word. There was nothing we could do.
In a place where you can shoot people just for fun, where average life expectancy is 43, you don’t care about racial equality or women’s rights or freedom of the press. The environment is a abstraction. All you dream about is the ability to walk down the street.
One of my colleagues, a Swedish cameraman named Ulf Stromberg, made the mistake of opening his door at about four in the morning. Two kids, probably Northern Alliance soldiers, robbed him of his cash and satellite phone, and shot him to death. I went to the new government’s local office in Taloqan to file a report the next day.
“What for?” he asked.
“When things calm down,” I explained, “you could launch an investigation.”
He let out a grim chuckle and waved me toward the door. “Things don’t calm down here.”
Except, of course, under the Taliban. In early 1994 thirty students (“talibs”) of a one-eyed village priest named Muhammed Omar told him that a local warlord’s militiamen had created a checkpoint, not only to shake down drivers but to rape girls. “How could we remain quiet when we could see crimes being committed against women and the poor?” Omar asked Pakistani journalist Rahimullah Yusufzai. Ordering his charges to grab 16 guns, Mullah Omar’s avengers executed the mujahedeen rapists, creating a vigilante legend that would eventually lead him to supreme power.
The Pashtun-dominated Taliban were brutal and capricious rulers. They were particularly hard on areas dominated by other ethnic groups such as Uzbeks, Tajiks and the Hazara. Fun—music, movies, kites, even keeping pigeons—was banned. Women whose burqas revealed a patch of skin were beaten by the roving thugs of the Ministry for the Prevention of Vice (an idea suggested by the Taliban’s Saudi allies). And they took hammers to artifacts in the national museum. But, if nothing else—mostly, it was nothing else—the Taliban delivered law and order. Justice was sure, swift, extreme, and effective. Violent crime plummeted. For the first time since the Soviet invasion in 1979, it became possible to drive the length of Afghanistan without encountering a single militia checkpoint, much less a robber.
When the Taliban left, anarchy returned.
Pentagon experts estimated that invading and occupying Afghanistan with sufficient troop density to provide street-level law and order would have required between 400,000 and 500,000 soldiers, the same number General Shinseki famously wanted for Iraq. (Afghanistan has about the same population and square mileage as Iraq, but with far more challenging, extremely mountainous terrain.)
Instead, a few thousand CIA operatives and Special Forces units parachuted into northern Afghanistan, doled out millions of dollars in cash to figures who controlled private armies, like Ishmail Khan of Herat, Tajik General Muhammad Atta (not the 9/11 hijacker) and Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum, based near Mazar-e-Sharif. U.S. airstrikes “softened” Taliban positions (as of 9/11, only about 300 Al Qaeda fighters were left in all of Afghanistan), allowing America’s newly-purchased allies to walk in. To Western eyes, it was a brilliant strategy. The Taliban melted away into the mountains. The Northern Alliance took power in Kabul. But it set the stage for three catastrophic problems…
The Bad War: Afghanistan Seven Years Later
August 6, 2008August 20, 2021 at 3:07 am #84654August 20, 2021 at 3:20 am #84655my parents said knowParticipant
Laffinboy. [good post!], Mr. House, DBS, M Reid- I also agree.
Evil uses the incompetence of their toadies as a screen and a diversion- like spilling marbles as they ditch the scene. That’s what Rove was saying- we throw messed-up reality behind us as we move on to create new realities while the “reasonable” deal with the mess.
“Mistakes were made”.
Stop dealing with the mess and face the evil for what it is. Or wickedness. Or psychopathology. Or whatever you want to call it.
One. World. ORDER.
It never ends well.
We are in a time when the power of technology has seduced megalomaniacs. Again.
When my tech-dumb sister mastered her iPhone in 2008 in less than a week, I didn’t think “Star Trek”.
I don’t think she has let go of the thing since. (Except to upgrade, of course.)
The internet has allowed the creation of a new kind of Mob. It is waiting for its cue.August 20, 2021 at 3:23 am #84656my parents said knowParticipant
And Bill7. I suffered from “word processoritis” and it took forever to write. It’s still a bit of a mess of a post.August 20, 2021 at 3:23 am #84657
If ADE does happen this winter……………August 20, 2021 at 3:24 am #84658WESParticipant
Very good article with good insight to Afghanistan’s culture and way of thinking. Agrees with my world travelling experiences in Middle East.August 20, 2021 at 3:29 am #84659
I still have an iphone 4s which i got back in 2013. First and last smartphone until they obsolete it. A few years back i was sitting at the bar having some drinks. A girl comes and sits down beside me and proceeds to make fun of my phone…….. bitches man 😉August 20, 2021 at 3:55 am #84660August 20, 2021 at 5:01 am #84661
jab passports: A OK!
ID to vote: THE HORROR THE HORROR
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