Jun 052022
 June 5, 2022  Posted by at 8:42 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,

James Ensor The intrigue 1890


Russia Is Winning The Economic War – And No Closer To Withdrawing Troops (G.)
US Officials Admit They Lied About Ukraine Success and Russian Failures (GP)
NATO Chief: Ukraine Shouldn’t Drop Goal to Drive Russia Out of Crimea (Antiwar)
Bilderberg does China (Escobar)
Subpoena Wars (Turley)
COVID Vaccines Linked To 25% Increase In Cardiac Arrest (INN)
Judge Rules In Favor Of St. Paul Unions Over Covid Vaccination Mandate (TC)
Italy and Germany End Travel Restrictions (CS)
Turkey Accuses Greece Of Harboring Terrorist Organizations (AMNA)
Laptop From Hell May Produce Data With Disaster For Joe Biden (Times)





I’m going in there





From The Guardian, no less.

Russia Is Winning The Economic War – And No Closer To Withdrawing Troops (G.)

It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed. Sanctions were imposed on Vladimir Putin not because they were considered the best option, but because they were better than the other two available courses of action: doing nothing or getting involved militarily. The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021. When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

That’s not to say the sanctions are pain-free for Russia. The International Monetary Fund estimates the economy will shrink by 8.5% this year as imports from the west collapse. Russia has stockpiles of goods essential to keep its economy going, but over time they will be used up. But Europe is only gradually weaning itself off its dependency on Russian energy, and so an immediate financial crisis for Putin has been averted. The rouble – courtesy of capital controls and a healthy trade surplus – is strong. The Kremlin has time to find alternative sources of spare parts and components from countries willing to circumvent western sanctions.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

Read more …

“Russia is the only superpower with a self-sufficient economy..”

US Officials Admit They Lied About Ukraine Success and Russian Failures (GP)

If you think the West has learned its lesson and opted to focus on truth, think again. Germany’s Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, was peddling these whoppers to his own government this week: Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine are still taking a heavy toll on the Russian war machine. . . .The Russian economy is collapsing,” . . . adding that Germany had played its part here by reducing exports to Russia in March by 60%, with an even sharper fall expected in April. The obvious question for any reporter with the brain power of a cretin would be, “what is the evidence that Russia’s economy is collapsing?” The truth is that all sectors are firing on all cylinders.

Just because Germany has decided to commit economic hari kari by declining to purchase cheap Russian oil, does not mean that Russia is bleeding out financially. The Economist reported two weeks ago that Russia is running a record trade surplus. Yes, Russia is importing fewer Mercedes and BMWs via the open market. First, Russia is not dependent on having western luxury items filling western owned stores. Second, the Russian mafia is more than willing to fill the gap and obtain such goods via the black market. Seems like the West never learns. Habeck also forgets the first rule of crisis management–when you are in a hole, stop digging. He made this even more outlandish claim:

“Moscow had lost access to parts crucial to its ability to fight the war, . . . such as “security updates for airplanes, with the result that the planes will soon be grounded”. He apparently did not get the briefing, widely available in the public domain, that Russia builds it own planes, rockets, space ships and tanks. Putin did not outsource critical industry to China or Mexico. Reality will remind the United States and its crazy European allies that Russia is the only superpower with a self-sufficient economy. The economy of Russia is not dependent on having a Russian version of Rodeo Drive filled with overpriced baubles.

Read more …

“..many US officials privately doubt Ukraine could expel Russia from the region..”

NATO Chief: Ukraine Shouldn’t Drop Goal to Drive Russia Out of Crimea (Antiwar)

In an interview with The Washington Post, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine shouldn’t avoid declaring ambitious war aims of driving Russia out of the eastern Donbas region and the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has controlled since 2014. “They have the right to say that they are fighting for the whole of Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. The Post report said that many US officials privately doubt Ukraine could expel Russia from the region and that such goals would “doom Kyiv to an endless war.” Stoltenberg has warned that NATO should be prepared to provide Ukraine with long-term support for its fight against Russia. “We need to be prepared that this may actually drag on for a long time,” he said.

Ukrainian President Voldymr Zelensky recently rejected a suggestion from former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who said Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to achieve peace. Earlier in the war, Russia made clear that its demands for a ceasefire include Ukraine dropping its claim to Crimea and recognizing the independence of the breakaway Donbas republics. As the war grinds on, Russia is making slow, but steady gains in the eastern Donbas region. Russian forces have also controlled most of the Kherson oblast, which is north of Crimea, for months now, and there are signs that Moscow is considering annexing the region. Retaking territories now controlled by Russia would take a massive offensive by Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces are taking heavy losses. Zelensky said this week that between 60 and 100 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed every day.

While the US and its allies have shipped billions in weapons to Ukraine since Russia invaded, Ukrainian officials say it isn’t enough to mount a counterattack. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday that Kyiv “needs more” to mount a “sufficient counterattack and kick them outside of our country to liberate all occupied territory.”

Future Ukraine

Read more …

“They are all paying close attention to the Russia gas-for-rubles experiment…”

Bilderberg does China (Escobar)

A serious debate is raging across virtually all sectors of Chinese society on the American weaponization of the world financial casino. The conclusions are inevitable: get rid of US Treasuries, fast, by any means necessary; more imports of commodities and strategic materials (thus the importance of the Russia-China strategic partnership); and firmly secure overseas assets, especially those foreign currency reserves. Meanwhile Bilderberg’s “diverse group”, on the other side of the pond, is discussing, among other things, what will really happen in case they force the IMF racket to blow up (a key plan to implement The Great Reset, or “Great Narrative”).

They are starting to literally freak out with the slowly but surely emergence of an alternative, resource-based monetary/financial system: exactly what the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) is currently discussing and designing, with Chinese input. Imagine a counter-Bilderberg system where a basket of Global South actors, resource-rich but economically poor, are able to issue their own currencies backed by commodities, and finally get rid of their status of IMF hostages. They are all paying close attention to the Russia gas-for-rubles experiment. And in China’s particular case, what will always matter is loads of productive capital underpinning a massive, extremely deep industrial and civil infrastructure.

No wonder Davos and Bilderberg messenger boys, when they look at The Grand Chessboard, are filled with dread: their era of perpetual free lunch is over. What would delight cynics, skeptics, neoplatonists and Taoists galore is that it was Davos-Bilderberg Men (and Women) who actually boxed themselves into zugzwang. All dressed up – with nowhere to go. Even JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon – who didn’t even bother to go to Bilderberg – is scared, saying an economic “hurricane” is coming. And overturning the chessboard is no remedy: at best that may invite a ceremonious tuxedo visit by Mr. Sarmat and Mr. Zircon carrying some hypersonic bubbly.

Read more …

“..the greatest costs will be borne by the public, if our legal proceedings become as performative and shallow as our politics.”

Subpoena Wars (Turley)

The problem is not that the committee will move forward with hearings or a report. Despite its partisan composition and agenda, there is always a value to greater transparency about what occurred on that tragic day. The problem is the effort to ratchet up interest through conflict. The committee has taken the rare step of subpoenaing GOP colleagues, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and threatening to hold them in contempt like Navarro and other former Trump officials. Despite years of bitter political divisions, the two parties have long avoided using subpoenas against each other. It was viewed as a step toward mutually assured destruction if House members unleashed inherent investigatory powers on each other.

House Democratic leaders, however, shattered that long tradition of restraint despite the fact that they may gain little from the effort. What they will lose is a long-standing detente on the use of subpoenas against colleagues — and they are creating a new precedent for such internal subpoenas just months before they could find themselves in the minority. Today’s hunters then could become the hunted, if Republicans claim the same license after November’s elections. The House already is a dysfunctional body that allows for little compromise or dialogue between parties. The targeting of fellow members now will remove one of the few remaining restraints on unbridled partisan rage. Judge Faruqui encouraged Navarro to consider the basis of his self-defense when Navarro seemed intent on self-immolation.

In addition to announcing that he would represent himself, Navarro made an extended statement on the steps of the courthouse in his defense. He then incongruously said he could not discuss “legal matters” before plunging again into his legal defense points. Navarro is known as someone who tends toward the path of greatest resistance. In a city known for highly managed criminal defendants with legions of lawyers and PR advisers, Navarro was a captivating figure as he held forth outside the courthouse. Yet for all that he has in terms of personal guts, he lacks legal authority. The problem is that even as he claimed executive privilege to avoid answering any of the House committee’s questions, he was publishing a book and giving interviews on the very subject matter of the subpoenas.

It was an ill-considered course that may make him an icon on the right but could also make him a convicted defendant. As he repeatedly pitched his book outside the court, it seemed clear that his priority was not acquittal. Navarro at one point asked, “Who are these people?” I have found myself asking the same question about all of the players in this subpoena war. Institutions and individuals alike seem to be in a crazed fit with little concern for how their actions may play out beyond the next election. But the greatest costs will be borne by the public, if our legal proceedings become as performative and shallow as our politics.

Read more …

Rare side effects.

COVID Vaccines Linked To 25% Increase In Cardiac Arrest (INN)

A new study by Israeli researchers and published in Nature has revealed an increase of over 25 percent in cardiovascular-related emergency calls in the young-adult population, following the rollout of COVID vaccines, among both males and females. No similar increase was found due to COVID infection alone. Israel health authorities and the U.S. Centers of Disease Control (CDC) have acknowledged a link between COVID vaccines and specific cardiovascular complications. The risk of myocarditis after receiving a second vaccine dose is now estimated to be between 1 in 3000 to 1 in 6000 in men aged 16 to 24. Recent articles in scientific journals, however, have sought to suggest that cardiovascular complications following COVID infection are more common than those following vaccination.

This assertion is contradicted by the findings from a recent study conducted by Israeli researchers, using data from Israel National Emergency Medical Services (EMS) related to “cardiac arrest and acute coronary syndrome EMS calls in the 16–39-year-old population” between 2019 and 2021. This enabled them to compare baseline (pre-COVID epidemic) to COVID epidemic without vaccines, to COVID epidemic following widespread vaccine takeup. An increase of over 25% was detected in both call types during January–May 2021, compared with the years 2019–2020. That is to say, “increased rates of vaccination … are associated with increased number of CA [cardiac arrest] and ACS [acute coronary syndrome].” By contrast, the trial “did not detect a statistically significant association between the COVID-19 infection rates and the CA and ACS weekly call counts.”

While the dangers of myocarditis for young males have gained widespread attention, this study found a larger increase in CA and ACS events among females that was linked to COVID vaccination. Myocarditis is known to be a “major cause of sudden, unexpected deaths in adults less than 40 years of age and is assessed to be responsible for 12–20% of these deaths,” the study’s authors note. They add that their findings have been mirrored by researchers in Germany and Scotland. They caution that given these findings, “It is essential to raise awareness among patients and clinicians with respect to related symptoms (e.g., chest discomfort and shortness of breath) following vaccination or COVID-19 infection to ensure that potential harm is minimized.”

Athlete deaths

Read more …

This seems the only valid way to look at it:

“It is difficult for this Court to imagine what could be more intrusive and more destructive to the employer-employee relationship than requiring employees to forfeit their bodily autonomy in the name of maintaining their livelihood”

Judge Rules In Favor Of St. Paul Unions Over Covid Vaccination Mandate (TC)

A judge ruled Thursday that the city of St. Paul’s COVID vaccination policy for police, firefighters and legions of other unionized city workers should have been part of the bargaining process, and he barred the city from enforcing it until it is approved as part of a negotiated agreement. The employee unions filed lawsuits last year over the coronavirus vaccine mandate for employees, calling it an unfair labor practice — and the judge agreed. The firefighters’ lawsuit noted that the city didn’t negotiate with the International Association of Fire Fighters Local 21 before making “a unilateral change to the terms and conditions” of employment for Local 21 members.

In his ruling, Ramsey County Judge Leonardo Castro noted that the city didn’t engage in bad faith by implementing the vaccination policy, but nevertheless enacted an unfair labor policy. “The City was faced with the height of a pandemic and based its actions upon what it believed to be in the best interest of the health and safety of its employees and the public,” Castro wrote in the ruling. “There was no malice, conspiracy or employee targeting involved.” The city did engage in discussions of the policy with union representatives, Castro wrote, though not in formal bargaining. For an issue such as injecting your own body with a foreign substance versus losing your job, he reasoned, that’s not enough.

“It is difficult for this Court to imagine what could be more intrusive and more destructive to the employer-employee relationship than requiring employees to forfeit their bodily autonomy in the name of maintaining their livelihood,” he wrote.

Read more …

What will they all do in September?

Italy and Germany End Travel Restrictions (CS)

Following the lead of other nations across Europe and the world, both Italy and Germany announced they were ending all COVID-related travel restrictions and requirements for travellers looking to enter their countries. “As of June 1, 2022, a Green Pass or equivalent certificate is no longer needed to enter Italy. All Covid-19 related entry restrictions have been lifted.” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation announced on its website. Before the announcement, those wishing to enter Italy had to provide proof of vaccination, proof that they had recovered from COVID-19, or provide a negative COVID-19 test. These requirements are now gone. The decision comes roughly one month after Italy scrapped its vaccine passport within the country.

Similarly, while not as absolute as Italy’s decision, Germany has decided to end nearly all travel restrictions until the end of August. According to an update on the German Federal Foreign Office’s website, “As of June 1, the requirements to register before entry, provide a negative test result and to quarantine only applies to travellers who have stayed in an area of variant of concern. Extension of the Ordinance on Coronavirus Entry Regulations until August 31, 2022.” Italy and Germany now join the growing list of sensible countries that have ended the vaccine passport and travel restrictions in the wake of the incredibly mild Omicron variant.

This list of countries includes the following: the UK, Denmark, Greece, Iceland, Norway, Austria, Romania, and many others. Canada, of course, remains one of the most thoroughly backwards countries on the planet and has extended its federal vaccine mandate until the end of June. This includes the federal travel ban on unvaccinated Canadians, who, being unable to board a plane, train, ferry, or cross over into the US, remain de facto prisoners in their own country.

Read more …

Erdogan’s standard threat.

Turkey Accuses Greece Of Harboring Terrorist Organizations (AMNA)

Turkey’s recent accusations that Greece is supposedly harboring terrorist organizations are “false and unfounded,” and are therefore “rejected in their entirety,” said Greek diplomatic sources on Saturday. Greece, sources clarified, “fully implements European Union decisions in the fight against terrorism.” Anadolu news agency had earlier reported that the Turkish Foreign Ministry summoned the Greek ambassador to Ankara to protest that allegedly Athens provides terrorist organizations with opportunities to engage in various activities. According to Anadolu, Greek Ambassador to Ankara Christodoulos Lazaris was called in because Greek authorities allowed a protest gathering be held by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) near the Turkish embassy in Athens, an organization that has been classified as a terrorist one by the EU and by Turkish authorities, it was added.

Read more …

The Times of London publishes Russian disinformation.

Laptop From Hell May Produce Data With Disaster For Joe Biden (Times)

Mac Isaac is an albino with restricted sight who was vague in interviews in 2020 about whether he got a good look at his customer. In his book, American Injustice, he says he made repeated attempts to return the laptop and then hand it over to the authorities. He said he was angered that, after he gave all the material to the FBI, it did not feature in the first impeachment of President Trump over his pressure on President Zelensky of Ukraine to investigate the Bidens. Mac Isaac says that spurred him to hand a copy of the data to Robert Costello, a lawyer for Rudy Giuliani, who in turn was acting as Trump’s lawyer. Mac Isaac says that the customer who came in with three liquid-damaged laptops appeared “intoxicated” with speech that was “a little slurred”.

Speaking to a Fox News podcast, he added: “When I actually left the shop probably about 45 minutes after he left the shop, I noticed his vehicle was still there. I just assumed that he was sleeping one off.” One of the laptops was a write-off and one just needed an external keyboard. “The third computer, there was a glimmer of life, but it required me to check it in so I could take it apart, disconnect some components to get the machine up and running,” Mac Isaac said. “I explained that process with him, I printed up an authorisation allowing me to take custody of the machine. And I had him sign that document, review the document with him.” It contained his usual proviso that, if unclaimed after 90 days, the computer was considered abandoned and became Mac Isaac’s property.

He says that the manual nature of dragging files and then comparing some to see if the data was intact led him to see what was on the computer. “That’s when I realised that the person . . . that’s storing in a lot of this homemade porn is actually the guy that dropped off the laptop,” he said. Mac Isaac denies he breached Hunter Biden’s privacy. “He wanted me to recover his data. When a customer requires a data recovery it’s usually for two things, movies and pictures. It’s for the things that you can’t replace,” he said. He says he opened a long video to check for digital corruption and found issues of another sort. “That just happened to be a homemade video of Hunter [doing] amazingly multiple illegal acts at the same time . . . smoking crack, while engaged in sex trade — I don’t know — I’m pretty sure, I’m not a lawman.”

Read more …










Support the Automatic Earth in virustime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.




Home Forums Debt Rattle June 5 2022

Viewing 16 posts - 41 through 56 (of 56 total)
  • Author
  • #109119

    I’m close to off grid here at almost 44 degrees North. Stuck out in the North Atlantic of eastern Canada. Have been since ’07. I’m running 5.4 kilowatts of solar with propane for my hot water, cooking, clothes dryer and a 7kw gen. The gen sees some use between early November and early February. I use lead acid batteries, 8 200 amp hour in series for 48vdc.the battery cost is/was $320C with an expected life span of seven years. Six is all I can get. No ac here as we don’t receive enough really hot days to make it pay, yet! We budget $100 a month to cover our propane and expected battery replacement costs. The gen runs at times of low light, the above mentioned period. It comes on automatically when the battery bank voltage hits certain points for specified times, programable by me. When it runs the inverter charges the bank while the house is powered, it takes two to three hours to fully charge the bank. Entire system cost approx. $25,000 gen included. We watch all the TV we care to and have a fridge with an ice maker, other half insists on ice. Two small freezers for our garden production, still eating last years haul of veggies and such. I planted carrots in a raised bed in the green house last July and we ate the last of them last week. Carrots keep really well in the ground if they don’t freeze, same with parsnips. If you allow them to start growing again in the spring they will flower and go to seed, which I did last year and have planted that seed in the outside garden yesterday. We still have frozen carrots as well. New head lettuce and spinach rolling in now, just finished the outside garden planting today. Rhubarb is ready for processing and still have some in the freezer from last year. I do envy the growing season you and Dr. John have but not the heat. Our life style is somewhat Spartan compared to others however we enjoy much more leisure time than all but the fully retired. We no longer travel much or great distances but present times sort of dampened that anyway.


    No argument about the amount of oil still in the ground it’s the energy cost of getting it. Not dollars but energy. Dollars are fiat and as such are of no value when it comes right down to it. They are a believe system, as long as most believe in them they have value until they don’t. Our present set of living arrangements require the same amount of energy input to maintain during its lifetime as it took took put it in place. As soon as energy is no longer put in it starts to decline, think of it as maintenance. In our growth to infinity and beyond system every increase in prosperity requires the same amount of energy over its life span that was used to create it. Hence the need for more oil to be pumped daily then was pumped daily some years ago. The world can’t get by on 80 million barrels a day now because it was using 90 plus before the shut down. It needs 90 to stay even and 100 to regain growth. If it gets to 100 in a few years it will need a few million more for more growth. These need to have a replacement value in joules with at least the same excess joules that the oil had that made them. The west and N.A. in particular built most of our infrastructure will 90 plus excess joules per joule used to get them excess little buggers. So now we are maintaining that infrastructure with 40 or less excess joules and want added growth to boot. These numbers aren’t hard and fast, not at my finger tips right now, but you get my drift I’m sure. I see the Russians are said to be able to produce oil for profit at $40. Whose dollars? Are they 1910 dollars or 2010 dollars. Not the same thing. Inflation! It takes energy to get energy not dollars or rubles or lira or any fiat. Joules or calories burned is the only way. I’ve read in one of my agricultural manuals that in 1900 for every calorie burned on the farm they received back approx. 10 in return. With the advent of industrial ag it is now the reverse and may be worse. Energy is neither created nor destroyed, it is merely changed from a dense form to a less dense form until it is spread so thin as to be of no use to us.

    John Day

    Thanks BoomerDoomer2. I do stuff like that, too. The clover in Yoakum has stickers. I spend sooo many hours pulling all kinds of weeds from the vastness, different weeds in every season, and they are unperturbed… I put in berm features to hold water sometimes, mainly with a shovel. I did plant white clover in the Austin garden, along with a lot of shredded cedar, and pick weeds there.
    Fukuoka was the inspiration, of course.

    @Formerly T-Bear: Yes, You are absolutely right. I meant “Autarky”, not “autocracy”..
    I’m chagrined, blushing-in-print here. It’s as bad as saying “jury rigged” for Jerry-rigged”, or “boogyman” for “bogeyman”, or “hip” for “hep”, or that other mixup I can’t recall that always bugs me.

    : Good analysis of how they get you coming and going with electrical utility inducements like residential solar. Phoenix is unsustainable. Seek to develop living options in underpopulated areas with favorable climate and soil.
    It’s hard to make a living in those places these days, which is why they are underpopulated…

    John Day

    More good contributions, Red.

    I don’t like the long periods of cold and dark. I’m better down here where it is hot and humid and I still have AC, but the new addition has special mitigation features, like a screen-porch in the shade, and really good insulation upstairs, downstairs and between, which allows for passive heat containment, like downstairs being 15 F lower than outside if only upstairs windows are open for flow-through heat-scavenging.

    I used a fossil fuel economy to build it, and am still doing so. It’s not an “alternative” as much as an investment in the next 30 years.

    Veracious Poet

    For Chooch & the grammar Po-Po:


    Yesterday Kasparov tweeted something to the effect that Russia was not a real nation but a mafia front and a gas station with nukes.

    William Taylor US Ambassador to Ukraine said, “Russian artillery firing at Ukraine from Russian territory will be a justified target for destruction by HIMARS missile systems.”

    The ideology here is pretty morbid. It demands victory at any cost.

    Veracious Poet

    I’d have a laugh at all the EGO posturing, if it wasn’t so pathetic & nauseating 🙄


    I must apologize for the Dr. Morgan quote I posted this morning. It is his quote just not the one for The Consciousness of Sheep. It was in reply to:

    Pause for Thought: Money without Value in a Rapidly Disintegrating World

    The quote for The C of S was :
    on June 5, 2022 at 7:15 am said:
    This is a particularly good article by Tim Watkins.

    I think he said, in a recent article, that the British economy is “collapsing”. I wouldn’t argue with that. The current government seems remarkably incompetent. But Mr Johnson was given an emphatic majority by the voters, and Labour seems to offer nothing, in the economic sphere, that is really different.

    For things to be different – in this context meaning “better” – the public, in this case the British public, have to want things to be different. I’ve yet to be convinced that they do. Perhaps they want to stick with things as they are?


    When Russia’s battle is being narrowed down to a battle for Severodonetsk, a city in Ukraine’s east – it doesn’t appear to be going in their favor. It’s also being reported that two more Russian Generals got killed.

    Updates from



    And Telenko



    I recommend the “Military Summary” channel on both Youtube (which I avoid) and Rumble for daily updates and analysis on the Ukraine-Russia military situation. About 20 minutes each day updating what happened since yesterday, and going into some analysis on objectives for each side, etc. The commentator uses both Russian and Western military maps/sources for his info, and seems objective.

    : As we have our media whores, so does the Russian media. Both the West and Russia give certain people a long leash on their speculations, both for reasons of their own.

    John Day

    I wrote an essay for the blog today, and there’s a nice picture of Jenny and the jungle

    I’m reluctant to make predictions without a lot of evidence to support them, but there is now a lot of evidence showing the near-term trends of energy use in industrial societies, with good historical comparisons.
    The currently stated objectives of western governments are not compatible with near-term real-economic requirements for societal survival. They can’t be carried out. They are a bluff, or some kind of strange trick to create a crisis, before a “new-solution” is magically presented to us.

    Gonzolo Lira just pointed out what happened to the US during the Arab Oil Embargo , starting in 1973. It caused Stagflation in the US, because prices went up and the economy imploded when the core commodity, oil quadrupled in price. America still produced almost all the oil it needed, and Americans used a lot less oil than we do now. Lira points out that Europe is now doing that to itself (at America’s behest).
    It’s worse for Europe, because Europe produces very little oil or gas without Russia. Global economy is so tightly knit, and running right at capacity, that there is not slack to be given from elsewhere, even if the oil were the same, and the refineries could just use it as-is. It’s not. They can’t. It also has to come long ways by ship, with long transit delays, and shipping shortages are already a big problem. Pipelines that work 7 days per week are the best. Russian pipelines and oil are the best for European refineries and industry.

    American and Qatari liquefied natural gas are a pipe-dream, because the billions of dollars required won’t exist when the economy shuts down for the decade to build that infrastructure. Japan and other Asian economies already buy that stuff, are set up for it, and will outbid Europe.
    A pipeline from Iran is a good idea, blocked so far by USA/NATO, since Syria wants to collect for Syrian participation, and is getting pounded for that affront.
    Here in Texas, with the summer driving season already underway, people now let me drive just under the speed limit, maybe even follow me for 30 miles, instead of tailgating, flashing their brights in my mirror, and punching the accelerator to jump past me at 90 mph, like usual.
    WTI is $120/bbl. The bank that used to show that price on the time & temperature display quit doing so in late March.
    It went from being interesting to threatening, I guess.

    I suspect the WEF/Globalist/Bilderberg plan was to spring a global financial crisis all at once, with the miracle solution of global central bank digital currency, with initial free-money, and a free smartphone to go with your free biometric ID, which could be used anywhere, and only by you, as long as you remained on good-behavior.
    The failure of Russia to financially collapse, coupled with the advanced preparations for a shared trade-currency with organizations like the Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seem to make that plan too risky now. The choice would be a real choice, and a lot of people in a lot of countries are already prepared to opt out of the nefarious biometric CBDC scheme. It has been outed.
    Global biometric CBDC is a trap that won’t catch all of us, and like the Kool-Aid, it won’t work without full participation, because everybody will shortly want out.

    Russia and China have the opportunity to be good guys this summer for an affordable price. Russia can make a profit on oil and meet the national budget when it is $40/bbl (maybe lower). Russia is already channeling big middleman-fees to Chinese tankers and Indian refiners for taking Russian oil at night, refining, rebranding and selling it at a handy profit for all, even including the final customer. Russia and India have both expressed intentions to sell grain preferentially to countries whose populations need it to survive, like Egyptians… These charitable acts will reduce profits of Oil-Majors and Agribusinesses like Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and even Bayer/Monsanto, since Russian grain eschews their patented seeds and necessary inputs.

    Cheating and accepting cheap grain are the low-hanging-fruit. This will throttle-back the extractive cash flows to the imperial financial machine, which is set to grab all the productive assets of countries that can’t make their interest payments to banks, hedge funds and the IMF, like in the Asian Economic Crisis. It’s that time of the credit-cycle again, unless it’s not…

    How beguiling, to be spared from the fate you have dreaded for 30 years, when you know it is an evil, tyrannical, downright unjust fate, cast onto your country by a cynical global parasitic class… “Odious debt” is the legal term. It’s ok to default on it, and you might gladly do so, if you only had a choice.
    Russia shares your pain…
    China is likewise sympathetic, and willing to give you a clean slate, a fresh credit card, to replace the Bank-of-America VISA card you are about to cut up. You won’t be able to use it at every gas station (Rosneft and Valero, not Texaco), but you can get by without the slavery of unpayable debt hanging over your head.

    When will this transition happen and how long will it take. “Slowly at first, then all at once”? What will that mean?
    Cheating is underway, and will have to increase and become the basic business model for EU oil and gas purchases. It will be a hassle, but as long as the pipelines are still running, it just means pretending you don’t know that the petroleum products on that tanker originated in Russia. Easy.
    Cheating will rapidly refine as a business model. Funds to build LNG ports and transport ships in Germany will hit snags in committee. It will just go so slowly that it does not happen. Nordstream-2 just sits there, calling to you… “Profits, profits, warm winters, social approval from friends and family…”

    What I don’t know is how close to the precipice the western financial machine is, and when it will trip over that edge.
    I personally think that the east does not want to give it that push. The east is also invested in that machine. The controlled-demolition of western finance by western financial elites appears non-viable now, and it was their main option.
    WW-3 is always a button they can push. It just needs to keep being a slightly worse option than something else, anything else. Walk it down slow…
    I think everybody can keep not-rushing-the-crackhead-with-the-detonater for awhile longer, indefinitely.
    Just ignore all that stuff about your mom.

    While the world is lying and cheating, and paying less to western financial institutions, and starting to default on $US debts (I’m looking at You too, “Eurodollars”)
    western central banks can play their money-printing games, and they might try some kind of CBDC, but they will lack total-buy-in, and it will be part of a crumbling system, and the neighbors will have this other gig going across the street, which won’t look bad by comparison. The neighbors won’t be paying on that credit card, mortgage, and SUV, either. (It’s just my pension. I need my pension. I earned my pension. The neighbors borrowed my pension..)

    This will go on for longer than I can imagine. Everything always does. That’s my prediction.

    Red sends this article on Surplus Energy Economy, the economic model that modern economy runs on the energy remaining after energy is used to extract, refine and employ energy sources, the net energy after all that, the gasoline, diesel and electricity after production-expenses are paid. It’s odd that that was not considered as a discrete mode of analysis before the 1930s, and is still not embraced by many economists. “The third part of the “blindingly obvious” trilogy is that money acts only as a ‘claim’ on the output of the real (energy) economy.”
    This essay looks at the tightly linked energy and economic growth of recent centuries, then overlays the increasing cost of extracting and producing forms of energy, which reaches a point of dragging-down the economy, as happened during the Arab Oil embargo (and has been happening since the middle of 2018 by my estimations). this provides a very useful framework for understanding modern economics, which nobody really wants you to understand. It looks like it is downhill from here forward for the average person, due to rising costs of energy extraction.
    #175. The Surplus Energy Economy

    John Day

    This just in (and forever) There’s No Immediate Cure For Sky High Gas Prices (Recession is not a “cure”, but another resulting ill.)

    The borders in Eurasia are complicated and confusing to an American. I can remember the Colorado and Mississippi rivers, but Europe has so many big rivers and seas, even Russia does. This clear and excellent article has really helped my understanding of all of the geostrategic and economic considerations around the Black Sea, Azov Sea, Kerch Straits and the internal waterways of Russia. Adequate maps, too.
    Black Sea Geopolitics and Russia’s Control of Strategic Waterways: The Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov

    St Paul Minnesota mandated COVID vaccination for all city employees by 12/31/2021, and about 20% did not comply. This was unilateral, not negotiated with the unions. The judge says the city did not have that unilateral right, and needs to renegotiate this in contracts. The workers requested a testing-option, bodily autonomy.

    Judge rules in favor of St. Paul unions over COVID vaccination mandate

    Very reassuring medical article explains that 50 years of viral mutation, compressed to 4 years, allowing monkeypox to spread rapidly in humans across the globe happened coincidentally after the virus jumped to humans, and only took 4 years instead of 50, because the human immune systems made it mutate 12 times faster. See how that works?
    What the surprising mutations in the monkeypox virus could indicate about the new outbreak

    What the surprising mutations in the monkeypox virus could indicate about the new outbreak

    ​ To be “fair and balanced” I’m including this conspiracy theory that the 50 years of mutations, compressed to 4 years, that allowed monkeypox to spread effectively in humans on a global scale, for the first time ever, happened in a lab, and was even the subject of one of those “tabletop exercises”, like a war-game without a war, that predicted it’s date of discovery within a week, and just last year. You’ve seen this kind of paranoid rambling with graphs, analysis and footnotes before… They even quote Robert Malone MD ,and he’s a “vaccinated, vaccine-developing anti-vaxxer” as he says himself.
    Study Finds Latest Monkeypox Outbreak Is Result of Biolab-manipulated Virus Possibly Released Intentionally

    John Day

    Not finding much detail about Severodonetsk, but this:

    Military Situation In Eastern Ukraine, Izyum-Severodonetsk Region, On June 5, 2022 (Map Update)

    Clashes between the AFU and Russian forces were reported in Severodonetsk city;
    As a result of the counterattack, the AFU reportedly managed to repel Russian forces from the western outskirts of Sirotino and from the village of Lesnaya Dacha.

    Veracious Poet

    Funny story of-the-day:

    Elderly men escape nursing home to go to Wacken metal festival ~ Police then found the aging metalheads at 3 a.m. at Wacken Open Air, the world’s biggest heavy metal festival. A police spokeswoman said they were “disoriented and dazed.” 😆



    John Day:

    No need to get defensive unless you enjoy feeling insecure. I meant, plant the rest of the dirt in garden. I’ve resumed posting a bit here but on a ‘no parley with the natives’ basis. I made an exception for you but I’ll rescind it now and stick to just sharing a bit of data or relevant ideas sans discussion.

    Dr. D

    Dr, have you seen the old cellar pipes or the hacienda air towers used by the Spanish in 1500 for AC? I’m not sure about having tunnels under the ground leading to the house, in non-deserts they would fill with water, and they may eventually warm up, but the concept of heat rising is sound.

    Today of course that would just be a geothermal heat pump, but that takes steady 120v. 220V?

    Red, can you use the cold as a resource instead of the heat? Like Iceland: thermoelectic needs a temperature delta more than temperature. You’re already running a stove in the winter. Can you then get the other side of the plate in solid freeze? If not overheated TE is pretty solid generator and lasts a while but you’d never get to use it in moderate Virginia. Iceland uses snow vs volcanoes, both an infinite resource.

    I see your point about the Red Queen Race. Obviously we CAN de-energy, re-simplify, and LEDs show even sometimes use less energy. But that’s just not human experience which is Jevon’s Paradox: if we make LEDs we just light up twice as many of them and gain nothing. (Why???) Nothing is decommissioned, they either let it collapse as a waste, or dump more energy into it. That I understand, so I’m torn that my read is that Mr. Global, trying some things and realizing this in 1979, released “Limits to Growth” and decided the only possible answer was to simply lock up the energy and refuse to allow it to be pumped at all. And also to kill people. For them, to stop runaway population and thus runaway depletion. But those specific wells back then are time-locked for 1979 and will have 1979-era energy returns. That is, high and very profitable. 1 in 20 out. Which is why we can’t let Iran have them, we will need to control them, or Iran will control us. As Russia is doing right now, with more wells and more firepower. If they don’t nuke Russia, they lose the world. For some reason they won’t though. And that’s in Fatima.

    “The currently stated objectives of western governments are not compatible with near-term real-economic requirements for societal survival. They can’t be carried out. They are a bluff, or some kind of strange trick to create a crisis, before a “new-solution” is magically presented to us.”

    Exactly. There is NO intention of using Green Energy, LNG to Germany, or anything else. No one on earth is that dumb. So since that’s a transparent scam, where is the real game? Last two years we found out. Kill everyone. Take Russia. Or die trying because as you say, if it’s a mirage and a dead end that they’ve been feeding us this whole time while intentionally getting us into this miserable, wasteful jam, every Joe on planet earth is going to hang them. I’m putting a dramatic bent on it, but I’m not wrong.

    Scythes are very, very fine instruments, so respect that they have to be sized exactly for you and for the task. That’s why if you pick up an American one in an antique store, you’re going to feel like it’s a lead pig. It’s almost certainly for heavy use, and made for someone far shorter than you are. European scythes are now popular, perhaps more than American, but you have to respect that they can tend to be very light. So if you’re using one, get the right thing. If you think oil’s running short, get the bush blade and a grass blade and don’t beat up your fine gear. You’ll have the second problem that you almost shouldn’t bother to harvest without a cradle as well, which is another whole thing. THEN you have to learn tying sheaves with their own straw, and stooking the sheaves, and hauling them without dropping, and keeping the mice off, and threshing. You know what? Just go get some gas and have a machine do it, you don’t want to know. That’s why they stopped doing it by hand the first time ‘round.


    John Day

    @Dr.D: thanks. Underground pipes take a whole lot of energy to dig tunnels for and set-in. Man, that’s a lot of work and expense, and it tears up tree roots. Trees make shade.

    : Gasoline remains key to even minimally managing 0.8 acre, mostly grass, with lots of fruit trees planted. That takes 4 hours of steady-pace mowing with gasoline in little Honda. Digging in a garden takes so much broadfork and roto-tiller work after covering the bed with black plastic for half a year to smother weeds. Forking and tilling in amendments after shoveling them out of the Ford Ranger is a lot of work. Covering the beds with multiple truckloads of mulch is lots of work, and every year or two. The amount of work, per area of modest garden and homestead, even with gasoline, is a hard limit for one human. I can’t really talk about pulling sections of weeds to have them return or be replaced with others in a couple of seasons…

Viewing 16 posts - 41 through 56 (of 56 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.